PROBLEMS on PROBABILITY

1. a bag consists of 20 tickets numbered from 1…,20. If a ticket is drawn at random, what is the
probability that it is i) an even numbered ticket) a prime numbered ticket iii) a multiple of 5 iv)
ticket number is greater than 17.
2. A card is selected at random from the pack of playing cards. What is the probability that it is i)
an Ace ii) a king or queen iii) a heart iii) a red color iv) a king or a diamond.
3. If two cards are drawn at random from the pack, find the probability of getting, i) both kings ii)
one ace and one queen iii) both are spade iv) one heart and other one spade or club.
4. A box contains 3 red and 4 green marbles.th
5. a) if marble is drawn at random, want is the probability it is a red color one.
b) If two marbles are drawn at random then what is the probability that i) both are red ii) are of
same colour iii) are of different colour.
6. In a quality control process an inspector selects a completed part for inspection. The inspector
then determines whether the part has a major defect, a minor defect, or no defect. Consider
the selection and classification of the part as an experiment. List the sample points for the
experiment.
7. An experiment with three outcomes has been repeated 50 times, E1 occurred 20 times, E2
occurred 13 times, and E3 occurred 17 times. Assign probabilities to the outcomes. What
method did you use? Why?
8. Suppose that a sample space has five equally likely experimental outcomes: E1, E2, E3, E4, E5. Let
A = {E1, E2, B = {E3, E4}, C = {E2, E3, E5}
a) Find P(A), P(B), and P(C)
b) Find P(AUB). Are A and B mutually exclusive?
c)Find Ac, Cc, P(Ac) and P(Cc)
d)Find AUBc and P(AUBc)
e) Find P(BUC)
9. City residents were surveyed recently to determine readership of newspapers available,50% of
the residents read the morning paper,60% read the evening paper, and 20% read both
newspapers. Find the probability that a resident selected read either the morning or evening
paper or both the papers
10. In an examination, 30% of the students have failed in Mathematics, 20% of students have failed
in Chemistry and 19% have failed in both mathematics and chemistry. A student is selected at
random.
What is the probability that the student has failed in Mathematics if it is known that he has
failed in Chemistry?
What is the probability that the student has failed in mathematics or in chemistry?
11. A problem in statistics is solved by the three students X, Y and Z, whose chances of solving it are
1/3,1/4 and 2/5 respectively. What is the probability that the problem will be solved?
12. An investment consultant predicts that the odds against the price of a certain stock will go up
during the next week are 2:1 and the odds in favor of the price remaining the same are 1:3.
What is the probability that the price of the stock will go down during the next week?
13. A candidate is selected for interviews with management trainees for 3 companies. For the first
company there are 12 candidates, for the second there are 15 candidates and for the third
there are 10 candidates. What are the chances of him getting a job at least at one of the
companies?

14. The probability that a contractor will get a plumbing contract is 2/3 and the probability that he
will not get an electric contract is 5/9. If the probability of getting at least one contract is 4/5,
what is the probability that he will get both.
15. A piece of equipment will function only when all the three components A, B and C are working.
The probability of A failing for one year is 0.15, that of B failing is 0.05 and that of C failing is
0.10. What is the probability that the equipment will fail before the end of the year?
16. The probability that India wins one day cricket match against South Africa is, given to be 2/3. If
Indian and South Africa play 3 one day matches, what is the probability that (i)India will win all
matches(ii)India will win at least one match? An MBA applies for a job in two firms X and Y. The
probability of his being selected in form X is0.7 and being rejected at Y is 0.5. The probability of
at least one of his applications being rejected is 0.6. What is the probability that he will be
selected in one of the firms?
17. An investment firm purchases 3 stocks for one week trading purposes. It assesses the
probability that the stocks will increase in value over the week by 0.8,0.7 and 0.6 respectively.
What is the chance (i) all three stocks will increase (ii)at least 2 stocks will increase? (assume
that the movements of these stocks are independent)
18. An MBA applies for a job in two firms X and Y. The probability of his being selected in firm X is
0.7 and being rejected at Y is 0.5. The probability of at least one of his applications being
rejected is 0.6, what is the probability that he will be selected in one of the firms?
19. A problem in business statistics is given to five students, A, B, C, D, and E. Their chances of
solving it are ½,1/3,1/4,1/5 and 1/6. What is the probability that the problem will be solved?
20. The probability that a management trainee will remain with a company is 0.6. The probability
that an employee earns more than Rs. 50,000 per year is 0.50. The probability that an employee
is a management trainee who remained with the company or who earns more than Rs.50,000
per year is 0.7. What is the probability that an employee earns more than Rs. 50,000 per year,
given that he is a management trainee who stayed with the company?
21. A company learned that inventory shortages were associated with a loss of goodwill with a
probability of 0.10. The company also knew that a loss of goodwill from all causes occurred with
a probability of 0.15. What is the probability of an inventory shortage, given a loss of goodwill?
22. A study showed that 65 percent of managers had some business education and 50 percent had
some engineering education. Furthermore, 20 percent of the managers had some business
education but no engineering education. What is the probability that a manager has some
business education, given that he has some engineering education?

23. The personnel manager of a large manufacturing firm finds that 15 percent of the firm’s
employees are junior executives and 25 percent of the firm’s employees are MBAs. He also
discovers that 5 percent of the firm’s employees are both junior executives and MBAs. What is
the probability of selecting a junior executive if the selection is confined to MBAs?
24. Two computers, A and B, are to be marketed. A salesman who is assigned the job of finding
customers for them has 60 % and 40 % chances respectively of succeeding in case of computer
A and B. The computers can be sold independently. Given that he was able to sell at least one
computer, what is the probability that computer A has been sold?
25. The company has two plants to manufacture scooters. Plant I manufacture 80% of the scooters
and plant II manufactures 20 %. At plant I, 85% of scooters are rated as standard quality. At
Plant II, only 65 % of scooters are rated as standard quality.
(i)What is the probability that a customer obtains a standard quality scooter if he buys a scooter
from the company?
(ii)What is the probability that the scooter came from plant I, if it is known that the scooter is of
standard quality?
26. Two sets of candidates are competing for the position on the Board of Directors of a company.
The probability is that the first and second sets will win 0.6 and 0.4 respectively. If the first set
wins, the probability of introducing a new product is 0.8, and the corresponding probability if
the second set wins is 0.3. What is the probability that the new product will be introduced?
27. In a certain town, male and female each form 50 percent of the population. It is known that 20
percent of the males and 5 percent of the females are unemployed. A research student
studying the employment situation selects an unemployed person at random. What is the
probability that the person so selected is (a) male(b)female?
28. A manufacturing firm produces steel pipes in three plants with daily production volumes of
500,1000 and 2000 units respectively. According to past experience is known that the fractions
of defective output produced by the three plants are respectively 0.005,0.008 and 0.010. if a
pipe is selected from a day’s total production and found to be defective, find out (i)from which
plant the pipe comes(ii)what is the probability that it came from the first plant?
29. In a post office, three clerks are assigned to process incoming mail. The first clerk, B1, processes
40 percent, the second clerk B2, processes 35 percent and the third clerk, B3 processes 25
percent of the mail. The first clerk has an error rate of 0.04, the second has an error rate of 0.06
and the third has an error rate of 0.03. A mail selected at random from a day’s output is found
 to have an error. The Postmaster wisher to know the probability that the mail was processed by
the first, second or third clerk, respectively.
30. A market survey conducted in four cities pertained to preferences for brand A soap. The
responses are shown below.
Delhi Kolkata Chennai Mumbai
Yes 45 55 60 50
No 35 45 35 45
No opinion 05 05 05 05

a. What is the probability that a consumer selected at random preferred brand ‘A’?
b. What is the probability that a consumer preferred brand A and was from Chennai?
c. What is the probability that a consumer preferred brand A given that he was from
Chennai?
d. Given that a consumer preferred brand A, what is the probability that he was from
Mumbai?
31. In a survey of MBA students, the following data were obtained on “students” first reason for
application to the school in which they matriculated.

Reason for Application

School School cost

Quality or Convenience other Totals
Enrollment Full time 421 393 76 890
Status Part time 400 593 46 1039
Totals 821 986 122 1929
a) Develop a joint probability table using this data.
b) Use marginal probabilities of school quality, school cost or convenience and
other to comment on the most important reason for choosing a school
c) If a student goes full-time, what is the probability that school quality will be
the first reason for choosing a school?
d) If a student goes part time, what is the probability that school quality will be
the first reason for choosing a school?
e) Let A be the event that a student is full time and let B be the event that the
student lists school quality as the first reason for applying. Are events A and B
independent? Justify your answer.
32. 10 % of the employees of a certain company have been to public school. Of these, 30 % hold
administrative positions. Of these that have not been to public school, 30 % hold administrative
 positions. If an employee is selected at random from the administrative staff, what is the
probability that he was educated in a public school?

APPLICATIONS PROBLEMS

33. A pharmaceutical company conducted a study to evaluate the effect of an allergy relief
medicine; 250 patients with symptoms that included itchy eyes, and a skin rash received the
new drug. The results of the study are as follows: 90 patients treated with experienced eye
relief, 135 had their skin rash clear up, and 45 experienced relief of both itchy eyes and the skin
rash. What is the probability that a patient who takes the drug will experience relief of at least
one of the two symptoms?
34. A study of 100 students who had been awarded university scholarships showed that 40 had
part-time jobs, 25 had made the dean’s list the previous semester, and 15 both had a part-time
job and made the dean’s list. What was the probability that a student had a part-time job or
was on the dean’s list?
35. Let A be an event where a person’s primary method of transportation to and from work is an
automobile and B be an event where a person’s primary method of transportation to and from
work is a bus. Suppose that in a large city P(A) = 0.45 and P(B) = 0.35
a) Are events A and B mutually exclusive? What is the probability that a person uses an
automobile or a bus going to and from work?
b) Find the probability that a person’s primary method of transportation is some means
other than the bus.
36. A purchasing agent has placed a rush order for a particular raw material with two different
suppliers, A and B. If neither order arrives in 4 days, the production process must be shut down
until at least one of the orders arrives. The probability that supplier A can deliver the material in
4 days is 0.55. The probability that supplier B can deliver the material in 4 days is 0.35.
a) What is the probability that both suppliers will deliver the material in 4 days? Because two
separate suppliers are involved, assume independence.
b) What is the probability that at least one supplier will deliver the material in 4 days?
c) What is the probability the production process is shut down in 4 days because of a
shortage in raw material (i.e., both orders are late)?
37. In the evaluation of sales training program, a firm discovered that of 50 salespeople receiving a
bonus last year, 20 had attended a special sales training program. The firm has 200 salespeople.
Let B = the event that a salesperson makes a bonus and S = the event that a salesperson attends
the sales training program.
a) Find P(B), P(S/B) and P(S∩B)
b) Assume that 40 % of the salespeople have attended the training program. What is the
probability that a salesperson makes a bonus given that the salesperson attended the
 sales training program, P(B/S)?
c) If the firm evaluates the training program in terms of its effect on the probability of a
salesperson’s receiving a bonus, what is your evaluation of the training program?
Comment on whether B and S are dependent or independent events.
38. A company has studied the number of lost-time accidents occurring at its Brownsville, Texas,
plant. Historical records show that 6 % of the employees had lost-time accidents last year.
Management believes that a special safety program will reduce accidents by 5 % during the
current year. In addition, it estimates that 15% of those employees having had lost-time
accidents last year will have lost-time accidents during the current year.
a) What percentage of the employees will have lost-time accidents in both years?
b) What percentage of the employees will have at least one lost-time accident over the
2-year period?
39. A consulting firm has submitted a bid for a large research project. The firm’s management
initially felt there was a 50-50 chance of getting the bid. However, the agency to which the bid
was submitted has subsequently requested additional information on the bid. Experience
indicates that on 75 % of the successful bids and 40 % of the unsuccessful bids the agency
requested additional information.
a) What is the prior probability the bid will be successful (i.e., prior to receiving the
request for additional information)?
b) What is the conditional probability of a request for additional information given that
The bid will ultimately be successful.
c) compute a posterior probability that the bid will be successful given that a request for
additional information has been received.
40. A local Bank is reviewing its credit card policy with a view toward recalling some of its credit
cards. In the past approximately 5 % of cardholders have defaulted, and the bank has been
unable to collect the outstanding balance. Thus, management has established a prior
probability of 0.05 that any cardholder will default. The bank has found that the probability of
missing one or more monthly payments for those customers who do not default is 0.20. Of
course, the probability of missing one or more payments for those who default is 1.
a) For a customer who has missed a monthly payment, compute the posterior
probability that the customer will default.
b) They would like to recall its card if the probability that a customer will default is
greater than 0.20. Should the bank recall its card if the customer misses a monthly
payment? Why aor why not?
41. The Wayne manufacturing company purchases a certain part from suppliers A, B and C. Supplier
A supplies 60 % of the parts, B 30 %, and c 10%. The quality of parts varies among the suppliers,
with A, B and C parts having 0.25%, 1% and 2% defective rates, respectively. The parts are used
in one of the company’s major products.
a) What is the probability that the company’s major product is assembled with a
defective part? Use the tabular approach to Bayes theorem to solve.
b) When a defective part is found, which supplier is the likely source?