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vi Contents

3.8 Research Study: Controlling for Student Background

in the Assessment of Teaching   119
3. 9 R Instructions  124
3.10 Summary and Key Formulas   124
3.11 Exercises  125

CHAPTER 4 Probability and Probability Distributions 149

4.1 Introduction and Abstract of Research Study­­   149
4.2 Finding the Probability of an Event   153
4.3 Basic Event Relations and Probability Laws   155
4.4 Conditional Probability and Independence   158
4.5 Bayes’ Formula  161
4.6 Variables: Discrete and Continuous   164
4.7 Probability Distributions for Discrete Random Variables   166
4.8 Two Discrete Random Variables: The Binomial and the Poisson   167
4.9 Probability Distributions for Continuous Random Variables   177
4.10 A Continuous Probability Distribution: The Normal Distribution   180
4.11 Random Sampling  187
4.12 Sampling Distributions  190
4.13 Normal Approximation to the Binomial   200
4.14 Evaluating Whether or Not a Population Distribution Is Normal   203
4.15 Research Study: Inferences About Performance-Enhancing Drugs
Among Athletes  208
4.16 R Instructions  211
4.17 Summary and Key Formulas   212
4.18 Exercises  214

PART 4  nalyzing THE Data, Interpreting the

A
Analyses, and Communicating THE Results 231

CHAPTER 5 Inferences About Population Central Values 232

5.1 Introduction and Abstract of Research Study   232
5.2 Estimation of m  235
5.3 Choosing the Sample Size for Estimating m  240
5.4 A Statistical Test for m  242
5.5 Choosing the Sample Size for Testing m  255
5.6 The Level of Significance of a Statistical Test   257
5.7 Inferences About m for a Normal Population, s Unknown  260
5.8 Inferences About m When the Population Is ­Nonnormal and n Is Small:
Bootstrap Methods  269
5.9 Inferences About the Median   275
5.10 Research Study: Percentage of Calories from Fat   280
5.11 Summary and Key Formulas   283
5.12 Exercises  285

CHAPTER 6 Inferences Comparing Two Population Central

Values 300
6.1 Introduction and Abstract of Research Study   300
6.2 Inferences About m1 2 m2: Independent Samples   303

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 Contents vii

6.3 A Nonparametric Alternative:

The Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test   315
6.4 Inferences About m1 2 m2: Paired Data   325
6.5 A Nonparametric Alternative:
The Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test   329
6.6 Choosing Sample Sizes for Inferences About m1 2 m2  334
6.7 Research Study: Effects of an Oil Spill on Plant Growth   336
6.8 Summary and Key Formulas   341
6.9 Exercises  344

CHAPTER 7 Inferences About Population Variances 366

7.1 Introduction and Abstract of Research Study   366
7.2 Estimation and Tests for a Population Variance   368
7.3 Estimation and Tests for Comparing Two Population Variances   376
7.4 Tests for Comparing t . 2 Population Variances    382
7.5 Research Study: Evaluation of Methods for Detecting E. coli   385
7.6 Summary and Key Formulas   390
7.7 Exercises  391

CHAPTER 8 Inferences About More Than Two Population Central

Values 400
8.1 Introduction and Abstract of Research Study   400
8.2 A Statistical Test About More Than Two Population Means:
An Analysis of Variance    403
8.3 The Model for Observations in a Completely Randomized Design    412
8.4 Checking on the AOV Conditions    414
8.5 An Alternative Analysis: Transformations of the Data    418
8.6 A Nonparametric Alternative: The Kruskal–Wallis Test   425
8.7 Research Study: Effect of Timing on the Treatment
of Port-Wine Stains with Lasers   428
8.8 Summary and Key Formulas   433
8.9 Exercises  435

CHAPTER 9 Multiple Comparisons 445

9.1 Introduction and Abstract of Research Study   445
9.2 Linear Contrasts    447
9.3 Which Error Rate Is Controlled?    454
9.4 Scheffé’s S Method  456
9.5 Tukey’s W Procedure  458
9.6 Dunnett’s Procedure: Comparison of Treatments to a Control   462
9.7 A Nonparametric Multiple-Comparison Procedure   464
9.8 Research Study: Are Interviewers’ Decisions ­Affected by Different
Handicap Types?  467
9.9 Summary and Key Formulas   474
9.10 Exercises  475

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viii Contents

CHAPTER 10 Categorical Data 482

10.1 Introduction and Abstract of Research Study   482
10.2 Inferences About a Population Proportion p  483
10.3 Inferences About the Difference Between
Two Population Proportions, p1 2 p2  491
10.4 Inferences About Several Proportions:
Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Test    501
10.5 Contingency Tables: Tests for Independence
and Homogeneity  508
10.6 Measuring Strength of Relation    515
10.7 Odds and Odds Ratios    517
10.8 Combining Sets of 2 3 2 Contingency Tables  522
10.9 Research Study: Does Gender Bias Exist in the Selection of Students
for Vocational Education?  525
10.10 Summary and Key Formulas   531
10.11 Exercises  533

CHAPTER 11 Linear Regression and Correlation 555

11.1 Introduction and Abstract of Research Study   555
11.2 Estimating Model Parameters    564
11.3 Inferences About Regression Parameters    574
11.4 Predicting New y-Values Using Regression   577
11.5 Examining Lack of Fit in Linear Regression    581
11.6 Correlation  587
11.7 Research Study: Two Methods for Detecting E. coli  598
11.8 Summary and Key Formulas   602
11.9 Exercises  604

CHAPTER 12 Multiple Regression and the General Linear Model 625

12.1 Introduction and Abstract of Research Study    625
12.2 The General Linear Model   635
12.3 Estimating Multiple Regression Coefficients    636
12.4 Inferences in Multiple Regression   644
12.5 Testing a Subset of Regression Coefficients   652
12.6 Forecasting Using Multiple Regression    656
12.7 Comparing the Slopes of Several Regression Lines   658
12.8 Logistic Regression  662
12.9 Some Multiple Regression Theory (Optional)   669
12.10 Research Study: Evaluation of the Performance of an Electric Drill   676
12.11 Summary and Key Formulas   683
12.12 Exercises  685

CHAPTER 13 Further Regression Topics 711

13.1 Introduction and Abstract of Research Study   711
13.2 Selecting the Variables (Step 1)   712
13.3 Formulating the Model (Step 2)   729
13.4 Checking Model Assumptions (Step 3)   745

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 Contents ix

13.5 Research Study: Construction Costs for Nuclear Power Plants   765
13.6 Summary and Key Formulas   772
13.7 Exercises  773

CHAPTER 14 Analysis of Variance for Completely

Randomized Designs 798
14.1 Introduction and Abstract of Research Study   798
14.2 Completely Randomized Design with a Single Factor   800
14.3 Factorial Treatment Structure  805
14.4 Factorial Treatment Structures with an Unequal Number
of Replications  830
14.5 Estimation of Treatment Differences and Comparisons
of Treatment Means  837
14.6 Determining the Number of Replications    841
14.7 Research Study: Development of a Low-Fat Processed Meat   846
14.8 Summary and Key Formulas   851
14.9 Exercises  852

CHAPTER 15 Analysis of Variance for Blocked Designs 865

15.1 Introduction and Abstract of Research Study   865
15.2 Randomized Complete Block Design   866
15.3 Latin Square Design   878
15.4 Factorial Treatment Structure in a Randomized Complete
Block Design  889
15.5 A Nonparametric Alternative—Friedman’s Test   893
15.6 Research Study: Control of Leatherjackets   897
15.7 Summary and Key Formulas   902
15.8 Exercises  904

CHAPTER 16 The Analysis of Covariance 917

16.1 Introduction and Abstract of Research Study   917
16.2 A Completely Randomized Design with One Covariate   920
16.3 The Extrapolation Problem   931
16.4 Multiple Covariates and More Complicated Designs   934
16.5 Research Study: Evaluation of Cool-Season Grasses for Putting
Greens  936
16.6 Summary  942
16.7 Exercises  942

CHAPTER 17 Analysis of Variance for Some Fixed-, Random-,

and Mixed-Effects Models 952
17.1 Introduction and Abstract of Research Study   952
17.2 A One-Factor Experiment with Random Treatment Effects   955
17.3 Extensions of Random-Effects Models   959
17.4 Mixed-Effects Models  967
17.5 Rules for Obtaining Expected Mean Squares   971

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x Contents

17.6 Nested Factors  981

17.7 Research Study: Factors Affecting Pressure Drops
Across Expansion Joints   986
17.8 Summary  991
17.9 Exercises  992

CHAPTER 18 Split-Plot, Repeated Measures,

and Crossover Designs 1004
18.1 Introduction and Abstract of Research Study   1004
18.2 Split-Plot Designed Experiments   1008
18.3 Single-Factor Experiments with Repeated Measures   1014
18.4 Two-Factor Experiments with Repeated Measures on
One of the Factors   1018
18.5 Crossover Designs  1025
18.6 Research Study: Effects of an Oil Spill on Plant Growth   1033
18.7 Summary  1035
18.8 Exercises  1035

CHAPTER 19 Analysis of Variance for Some Unbalanced

Designs 1050
19.1 Introduction and Abstract of Research Study   1050
19.2 A Randomized Block Design with One or More
Missing Observations  1052
19.3 A Latin Square Design with Missing Data   1058
19.4 Balanced Incomplete Block (BIB) Designs   1063
19.5 Research Study: Evaluation of the Consistency
of Property Assessors  1070
19.6 Summary and Key Formulas   1074
19.7 Exercises  1075

Appendix: Statistical Tables 1085

Answers to Selected Exercises 1125
References 1151
Index 1157

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 PREFACE
INDEX

Intended Audience
An Introduction to Statistical Methods and Data Analysis, Seventh Edition, provides
a broad overview of statistical methods for advanced undergraduate and graduate
students from a variety of disciplines. This book is intended to prepare students to
solve problems encountered in research projects, to make decisions based on data
in general settings both within and beyond the university setting, and finally to
become critical readers of statistical analyses in research papers and in news reports.
The book presumes that the students have a minimal mathematical background
(high school algebra) and no prior course work in statistics. The first 11 chapters
of the textbook present the material typically covered in an introductory statistics
course. However, this book provides research studies and examples that connect
the statistical concepts to data analysis problems that are often encountered in
undergraduate capstone courses. The remaining chapters of the book cover regres-
sion modeling and design of experiments. We develop and illustrate the statistical
techniques and thought processes needed to design a research study or experiment
and then analyze the data collected using an intuitive and proven four-step approach.
This should be especially helpful to graduate students conducting their MS thesis
and PhD dissertation research.

Major Features of Textbook

Learning from Data
In this text, we approach the study of statistics by considering a four-step process
by which we can learn from data:
1. Defining the Problem
2. Collecting the Data
3. Summarizing the Data
4. Analyzing the Data, Interpreting the Analyses, and Communicating
the ­Results

Case Studies
In order to demonstrate the relevance and critical nature of statistics in solving real-
world problems, we introduce the major topic of each chapter using a case study.
The case studies were selected from many sources to illustrate the broad applica-
bility of statistical methodology. The four-step learning from data process is illus-
trated through the case studies. This approach will hopefully assist in overcoming

 xi

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xii Preface

the natural initial perception held by many people that statistics is just another
“math course.’’ The introduction of major topics through the use of case studies
provides a focus on the central nature of applied statistics in a wide variety of
research and business-related studies. These case studies will hopefully provide the
reader with an enthusiasm for the broad applicability of statistics and the statistical
thought process that the authors have found and used through their many years
of teaching, consulting, and R & D management. The following research studies
­illustrate the types of studies we have used throughout the text.
●● Exit Polls Versus Election Results: A study of why the exit polls
from 9 of 11 states in the 2004 presidential election predicted John
Kerry as the winner when in fact President Bush won 6 of the 11
states.
●● Evaluation of the Consistency of Property Assessors:   A study to
determine if county property assessors differ systematically in their
determination of property values.
●● Effect of Timing of the Treatment of Port-Wine Stains with Lasers:  
A prospective study that investigated whether treatment at a younger
age would yield better results than treatment at an older age.
●● Controlling for Student Background in the Assessment of Teaching:  
An examination of data used to support possible improvements to
the No Child Left Behind program while maintaining the important
concepts of performance standards and accountability.
Each of the research studies includes a discussion of the whys and hows of the
study. We illustrate the use of the four-step learning from data process with each
case study. A discussion of sample size determination, graphical displays of the
data, and a summary of the necessary ingredients for a complete report of the sta-
tistical findings of the study are provided with many of the case studies.

Examples and Exercises

We have further enhanced the practical nature of statistics by using examples and
exercises from journal articles, newspapers, and the authors’ many consulting
experiences. These will provide the students with further evidence of the practical
usages of statistics in solving problems that are relevant to their everyday lives.
Many new exercises and examples have been included in this edition of the book.
The number and variety of exercises will be a great asset to both the instructor and
students in their study of statistics.

Topics Covered
This book can be used for either a one-semester or a two-semester course. Chapters
1 through 11 would constitute a one-semester course. The topics covered would
­include
Chapter 1—Statistics and the scientific method
Chapter 2—Using surveys and experimental studies to gather data
Chapters 3 & 4—Summarizing data and probability distributions
Chapters 5–7—Analyzing data: inferences about central values and
­variances
Chapters 8 & 9—One-way analysis of variance and multiple
comparisons

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 Preface xiii

Chapter 10—Analyzing data involving proportions

Chapter 11—Linear regression and correlation
The second semester of a two-semester course would then include model building
and inferences in multiple regression analysis, logistic regression, design of experi-
ments, and analysis of variance:
Chapters 11–13—Regression methods and model building: multiple re-
gression and the general linear model, logistic regression, and building
­regression models with diagnostics
Chapters 14–19—Design of experiments and analysis of variance: design
concepts, analysis of variance for standard designs, analysis of covari-
ance, random and mixed effects models, split-plot designs, repeated
measures ­designs, crossover designs, and unbalanced designs

Emphasis on Interpretation, not Computation

In the book are examples and exercises that allow the student to study how to
­calculate the value of statistical estimators and test statistics using the definitional
form of the procedure. After the student becomes comfortable with the aspects of
the data the statistical procedure is reflecting, we then emphasize the use of com-
puter software in making computations in the analysis of larger data sets. We provide
output from three major statistical packages: SAS, Minitab, and SPSS. We find that
this approach provides the student with the experience of computing the value of the
procedure using the definition; hence, the student learns the basics b­ ehind each pro-
cedure. In most situations beyond the statistics course, the student should be using
computer software in making the computations for both e­ xpedience and quality of
calculation. In many exercises and examples, the use of the computer allows for more
time to emphasize the interpretation of the ­results of the computations without hav-
ing to expend enormous amounts of time and effort in the ­actual computations.
In numerous examples and exercises, the importance of the following aspects
of hypothesis testing are demonstrated:
1. The statement of the research hypothesis through the summarization
of the researcher’s goals into a statement about population
parameters.
2. The selection of the most appropriate test statistic, including sample
size computations for many procedures.
3. The necessity of considering both Type I and Type II error
rates (a and b) when discussing the results of a statistical test of
hypotheses.
4. The importance of considering both the statistical significance and
the practical significance of a test result. Thus, we illustrate the
importance of estimating effect sizes and the construction of confi-
dence intervals for population parameters.
5. The statement of the results of the statistical test in nonstatistical
jargon that goes beyond the statement ‘‘reject H0’’ or ‘‘fail to
reject H0.’’

New to the Seventh Edition

●● There are instructions on the use of R code. R is a free software package
that can be downloaded from http:/ /lib.stat.cmu.edu/R/CRAN.

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xiv Preface

Click your choice of platform (Linux, MacOS X, or Windows) for the

precompiled binary distribution. Note the FAQs link to the left for
additional information. Follow the instructions for installing the base
system software (which is all you will need).
●● New examples illustrate the breadth of applications of statistics to
real-world problems.
●● An alternative to the standard deviation, MAD, is provided as a
measure of dispersion in a population/sample.
●● The use of bootstrapping in obtaining confidence intervals and
p-values is discussed.
●● Instructions are included on how to use R code to obtain percentiles
and probabilities from the following distributions: normal, binomial,
Poisson, chi-squared, F, and t.
●● A nonparametric alternative to the Pearson correlation coefficient:
Spearman’s rank correlation, is provided.
●● The binomial test for small sample tests of proportions is presented.
●● The McNemar test for paired count data has been added.
●● The Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion
for variable selection are discussed.

Additional Features Retained from Previous Editions

●● Many practical applications of statistical methods and data analysis
from agriculture, business, economics, education, engineering, medi-
cine, law, political science, psychology, environmental studies, and
sociology have been included.
●● The seventh edition contains over 1,000 exercises, with nearly 400 of
the exercises new.
●● Computer output from Minitab, SAS, and SPSS is provided in
numerous examples. The use of computers greatly facilitates the use
of more sophisticated graphical illustrations of statistical results.
●● Attention is paid to the underlying assumptions. Graphical
procedures and test procedures are provided to determine if assump-
tions have been violated. Furthermore, in many settings, we provide
alternative procedures when the conditions are not met.
●● The first chapter provides a discussion of “What Is Statistics?” We
provide a discussion of why students should study statistics along with
a discussion of several major studies that illustrate the use of statistics
in the solution of real-life problems.

Ancillaries
l Student Solutions Manual (ISBN-10: 1-305-26948-9;
ISBN-13: 978-1-305-26948-4), containing select worked solutions
for problems in the textbook.
l A Companion Website at www.cengage.com/statistics/ott, containing
downloadable data sets for Excel, Minitab, SAS, SPSS, and others,
plus additional resources for students and faculty.

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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
 Preface xv

Acknowledgments
There are many people who have made valuable, constructive suggestions for
the development of the original manuscript and during the preparation of the
subsequent editions. We are very appreciative of the insightful and constructive
comments from the following reviewers:
Naveen Bansal, Marquette University
Kameryn Denaro, San Diego State University
Mary Gray, American University
Craig Leth-Steensen, Carleton University
Jing Qian, University of Massachusetts
Mark Riggs, Abilene Christian University
Elaine Spiller, Marquette University
We are also appreciate of the preparation assistance received from Molly Taylor
and Jay Campbell; the scheduling of the revisions by Mary Tindle, the Senior
Project Manager at Cenveo Publisher Services, who made sure that the book
was completed in a timely manner. The authors of the solutions manual, Soma
Roy, California Polytechnic State University, and John Draper, The Ohio State
University, provided me with excellent input which resulted in an improved set of
exercises for the seventh edition. The person who assisted me the greatest degree
in the preparation of the seventh edition, was Sherry Goldbecker, the copy editor.
Sherry not only corrected my many grammatical errors but also provided rephras-
ing of many sentences which made for a more straight forward explanation of sta-
tistical concepts. The students, who use this book in their statistics classes, will be
most appreciative of Sherry’s many contributions.

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 Copyright 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
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 PART 1

Introduction

Chapter 1 St atistic s a nd the Sc ientific Method

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 1.1 Introduction

CHAPTER 1 1.2
1.3
Why Study Statistics?
Some Current
Applications of Statistics
1.4 A Note to the Student

Statistics and
1.5 Summary
1.6 Exercises

the Scientific
Method

1.1 Introduction
Statistics is the science of designing studies or experiments, collecting data, and
modeling/analyzing data for the purpose of decision making and scientific discov-
ery when the available information is both limited and variable. That is, statistics is
the science of Learning from Data.
Almost everyone, including social scientists, medical researchers, superin-
tendents of public schools, corporate executives, market researchers, engineers,
government employees, and consumers, deals with data. These data could be in the
form of quarterly sales figures, percent increase in juvenile crime, contamination
levels in water samples, survival rates for patients undergoing medical therapy,
census figures, or information that helps determine which brand of car to purchase.
In this text, we approach the study of statistics by considering the four-step process
in Learning from Data: (1) defining the problem, (2) collecting the data, (3) sum-
marizing the data, and (4) analyzing the data, interpreting the analyses, and com-
municating the results. Through the use of these four steps in Learning from Data,
our study of statistics closely parallels the Scientific Method, which is a set of prin-
ciples and procedures used by successful scientists in their p ­ ursuit of knowledge.
The method involves the formulation of research goals, the design of observational
studies and/or experiments, the collection of data, the modeling/analysis of the
data in the context of research goals, and the testing of hypotheses. The conclusion
of these steps is often the formulation of new research goals for a­ nother study.
These steps are illustrated in the schematic given in Figure 1.1.
This book is divided into sections corresponding to the four-step process in
Learning from Data. The relationship among these steps and the chapters of the
book is shown in Table 1.1. As you can see from this table, much time is spent dis-
cussing how to analyze data using the basic methods presented in Chapters 5–19.

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 1.1 Introduction 3

FIGURE 1.1
Scientific Method
Formulate research goal:
Schematic
research hypotheses, models

Formulate new
Make decisions:
research goals:
written conclusions,
new models,
oral presentations
new hypotheses

Design study: Draw inferences:

sample size, variables, Collect data: graphs, estimation,
experimental units, data management hypotheses testing,
sampling mechanism model assessment

TABLE 1.1
Organization of the text The Four-Step Process Chapters

1 Defining the Problem 1 Statistics and the Scientific Method

2 Collecting the Data 2 Using Surveys and Experimental Studies to Gather Data
3 Summarizing the Data 3 Data Description
4 Probability and Probability Distributions
4 Analyzing the Data, 5 Inferences about Population Central Values
Interpreting the Analyses, 6 Inferences Comparing Two Population Central Values
and Communicating 7 Inferences about Population Variances
the Results 8 Inferences about More Than Two Population Central Values
9 Multiple Comparisons
10 Categorical Data
11 Linear Regression and Correlation
12 Multiple Regression and the General Linear Model
13 Further Regression Topics
14 Analysis of Variance for Completely Randomized Designs
15 Analysis of Variance for Blocked Designs
16 The Analysis of Covariance
17 Analysis of Variance for Some Fixed-, Random-, and
Mixed-Effects Models
18 Split-Plot, Repeated Measures, and Crossover Designs
19 Analysis of Variance for Some Unbalanced Designs

However, you must remember that for each data set requiring analysis, someone
has defined the problem to be examined (Step 1), developed a plan for collecting
data to address the problem (Step 2), and summarized the data and prepared the
data for analysis (Step 3). Then following the analysis of the data, the results of the
analysis must be interpreted and communicated either verbally or in written form
to the intended audience (Step 4).
All four steps are important in Learning from Data; in fact, unless the prob-
lem to be addressed is clearly defined and the data collection carried out properly,
the interpretation of the results of the analyses may convey misleading informa-
tion because the analyses were based on a data set that did not address the problem
or that was incomplete and contained improper information. Throughout the text,

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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
4 Chapter 1 Statistics and the Scientific Method

we will try to keep you focused on the bigger picture of Learning from Data
through the four-step process. Most chapters will end with a summary section
that emphasizes how the material of the chapter fits into the study of statistics—
Learning from Data.
To illustrate some of the above concepts, we will consider four situations
in which the four steps in Learning from Data could assist in solving a real-world
problem.

1. Problem: Inspection of ground beef in a large beef-processing facility.

A beef-processing plant produces approximately half a million pack-
ages of ground beef per week. The government inspects packages
for possible improper labeling of the packages with respect to the
percent fat in the meat. The inspectors must open the ground beef
package in order to determine the fat content of the ground beef.
The inspection of every package would be prohibitively costly and
time consuming. An alternative approach is to select 250 packages
for inspection from the daily production of 100,000 packages. The
fraction of packages with improper labeling in the sample of 250
packages would then be used to estimate the fraction of packages
improperly labeled in the complete day’s production. If this fraction
exceeds a set specification, action is then taken against the meat
processor. In later chapters, a procedure will be formulated to deter-
mine how well the sample fraction of improperly labeled packages
approximates the fraction of improperly labeled packages for the
whole day’s output.
2. Problem: Is there a relationship between quitting smoking and
gaining weight? To investigate the claim that people who quit
smoking often ­experience a subsequent weight gain, researchers
selected a random sample of 400 participants who had successfully
participated in programs to quit smoking. The individuals were
weighed at the beginning of the program and again 1 year later.
The average change in weight of the participants was an increase of
5 pounds. The investigators concluded that there was evidence that
the claim was valid. We will develop techniques in later chapters to
assess when changes are truly significant changes and not changes
due to random chance.
3. Problem: What effect does nitrogen fertilizer have on wheat production?
For a study of the effects of nitrogen fertilizer on wheat production,
a total of 15 fields was available to the researcher. She randomly
assigned three fields to each of the five nitrogen rates under inves-
tigation. The same variety of wheat was planted in all 15 fields. The
fields were cultivated in the same manner until harvest, and the
number of pounds of wheat per acre was then recorded for each of
the 15 fields. The experimenter wanted to determine the optimal
level of nitrogen to apply to any wheat field, but, of course, she was
limited to running experiments on a limited number of fields. After
determining the amount of nitrogen that yielded the largest produc-
tion of wheat in the study fields, the ­experimenter then concluded
that similar results would hold for wheat fields possessing charac-
teristics somewhat the same as the study fields. Is the experimenter
justified in reaching this conclusion?

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 1.1 Introduction 5

4. Problem: Determining public opinion toward a question, issue,

product, or candidate. Similar applications of statistics are brought
to mind by the frequent use of the New York Times/CBS News,
Washington Post/ABC News, Wall Street Journal/NBC News, Harris,
Gallup/Newsweek, and CNN/Time polls. How can these pollsters
determine the opinions of more than 195 million Americans who are
of voting age? They certainly do not contact every potential voter in
the United States. Rather, they sample the opinions of a small num-
ber of potential voters, perhaps as few as 1,500, to estimate the reac-
tion of every person of voting age in the country. The amazing result
of this process is that if the selection of the voters is done in an unbi-
ased way and voters are asked unambiguous, nonleading questions,
the fraction of those persons contacted who hold a particular opinion
will closely match the fraction in the total population holding that
opinion at a ­particular time. We will supply convincing supportive
evidence of this assertion in subsequent chapters.

These problems illustrate the four-step process in Learning from Data.

First, there was a problem or question to be addressed. Next, for each prob-
lem a study or experiment was proposed to collect meaningful data to solve the
problem. The government meat inspection agency had to decide both how many
packages to inspect per day and how to select the sample of packages from the
total daily output in order to obtain a valid prediction. The polling groups had to
decide how many voters to sample and how to select these individuals in order
to obtain information that is representative of the population of all voters. Simi-
larly, it was necessary to carefully plan how many participants in the weight-gain
study were needed and how they were to be selected from the list of all such
participants. Furthermore, what variables did the researchers have to measure
on each participant? Was it necessary to know each participant’s age, sex, physi-
cal fitness, and other health-related variables, or was weight the only important
variable? The results of the study may not be relevant to the general population
if many of the participants in the study had a particular health condition. In the
wheat experiment, it was important to measure both the soil characteristics of
the fields and the environmental conditions, such as temperature and rainfall, to
obtain results that could be generalized to fields not included in the study. The
design of a study or experiment is crucial to obtaining results that can be general-
ized beyond the study.
Finally, having collected, summarized, and analyzed the data, it is important
to report the results in unambiguous terms to interested people. For the meat
inspection example, the government inspection agency and the personnel in the
beef-processing plant would need to know the distribution of fat content in the
daily production of ground beef. Based on this distribution, the agency could then
impose fines or take other remedial actions against the production facility. Also,
knowledge of this distribution would enable company production personnel to
make adjustments to the process in order to obtain acceptable fat content in their
ground beef packages. Therefore, the results of the statistical analyses cannot
be presented in ambiguous terms; decisions must be made from a well-defined
knowledge base. The results of the weight-gain study would be of vital interest to
physicians who have patients participating in the smoking-cessation program. If
a significant increase in weight was recorded for those individuals who had quit
smoking, physicians would have to recommend diets so that the former smokers

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6 Chapter 1 Statistics and the Scientific Method

FIGURE 1.2
Population and sample Set of all measurements:
the population

Set of measurements
selected from the
population:
the sample

would not go from one health problem (smoking) to another (elevated blood
pressure due to being overweight). It is crucial that a careful description of the
participants—that is, age, sex, and other health-related information—be included
in the report. In the wheat study, the experiment would provide farmers with
information that would allow them to economically select the optimum amount of
nitrogen required for their fields. Therefore, the report must contain ­information
concerning the amount of moisture and types of soils present on the study fields.
Otherwise, the conclusions about optimal wheat production may not pertain to
farmers growing wheat under considerably different conditions.
To infer validly that the results of a study are applicable to a larger group
population than just the participants in the study, we must carefully define the population
(see Definition 1.1) to which inferences are sought and design a study in which the
sample sample (see Definition 1.2) has been appropriately selected from the designated
population. We will discuss these issues in Chapter 2.

DEFINITION 1.1 A population is the set of all measurements of interest to the sample collector.
(See Figure 1.2.)

DEFINITION 1.2 A sample is any subset of measurements selected from the population.
(See Figure 1.2.)

1.2 Why Study Statistics?

We can think of many reasons for taking an introductory course in statistics. One
reason is that you need to know how to evaluate published numerical facts. Every
person is exposed to manufacturers’ claims for products; to the results of socio-
logical, consumer, and political polls; and to the published results of scientific
research. Many of these results are inferences based on sampling. Some infer-
ences are valid; others are invalid. Some are based on samples of adequate size;
others are not. Yet all these published results bear the ring of truth. Some peo-
ple (particularly statisticians) say that statistics can be made to support almost

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 1.2 Why Study Statistics? 7

anything. Others say it is easy to lie with statistics. Both statements are true. It
is easy, ­purposely or unwittingly, to distort the truth by using statistics when
presenting the results of sampling to the uninformed. It is thus crucial that you
become an ­informed and critical reader of data-based reports and articles.
A second reason for studying statistics is that your profession or employment
may require you to interpret the results of sampling (surveys or experimentation)
or to employ statistical methods of analysis to make inferences in your work. For
example, practicing physicians receive large amounts of advertising describing
the benefits of new drugs. These advertisements frequently display the numerical
­results of experiments that compare a new drug with an older one. Do such data
­really imply that the new drug is more effective, or is the observed difference in
­results due simply to random variation in the experimental measurements?
Recent trends in the conduct of court trials indicate an increasing use of
probability and statistical inference in evaluating the quality of evidence. The use
of statistics in the social, biological, and physical sciences is essential because all
these sciences make use of observations of natural phenomena, through sample
surveys or experimentation, to develop and test new theories. Statistical methods
are employed in business when sample data are used to forecast sales and profit.
In addition, they are used in engineering and manufacturing to monitor product
quality. The sampling of accounts is a useful tool to assist accountants in conduct-
ing audits. Thus, statistics plays an important role in almost all areas of science,
business, and industry; persons employed in these areas need to know the basic
concepts, strengths, and limitations of statistics.
The article “What Educated Citizens Should Know About Statistics and Prob-
ability,” by J. Utts (2003), contains a number of statistical ideas that need to be
understood by users of statistical methodology in order to avoid confusion in the
use of their research findings. Misunderstandings of statistical results can lead to
major errors by government policymakers, medical workers, and consumers of this
information. The article selected a number of topics for discussion. We will sum-
marize some of the findings in the article. A complete discussion of all these topics
will be given throughout the book.
1. One of the most frequent misinterpretations of statistical findings
is when a statistically significant relationship is established between
two variables and it is then concluded that a change in the explana-
tory ­variable causes a change in the response variable. As will be
discussed in the book, this conclusion can be reached only under
very restrictive constraints on the experimental setting. Utts exam-
ined a recent Newsweek article discussing the relationship between
the strength of religious beliefs and physical healing. Utts’ article
discussed the ­problems in reaching the conclusion that the stronger
a patient’s religious beliefs, the more likely the patient would be
cured of his or her ailment. Utts showed that there are ­numerous
other factors involved in a patient’s health and the conclusion that
religious beliefs cause a cure cannot be validly reached.
2. A common confusion in many studies is the difference between
(statistically) significant findings in a study and (practically) signifi-
cant findings. This problem often occurs when large data sets are
involved in a study or experiment. This type of problem will be dis-
cussed in detail throughout the book. We will use a number of exam-
ples that will illustrate how this type of confusion can be avoided by
researchers when reporting the findings of their experimental results.

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 Another Random Document on
Scribd Without Any Related Topics
 CHAPTER X

LONDINIUM
“London was built on the first spot going
up the river where any considerable tract
of dry land touches the stream. It is a
tract of good gravel, well supplied with
water, not liable to flooding, and not
commanded by neighbouring higher
ground.”—Lord Avebury, Scenery of
England.
From the standing-ground of what is known of London in the Middle
Ages, I have endeavoured to reach back towards Londinium
Augusta. To set out adequately all the data that we have for
reconstructing the Roman city would require a treatise from a
specialist. I can only venture here a rapid glance in conclusion at the
more salient features of the ancient town. Much in recent years has
been written as to a still earlier London than that included within the
circuit of Roman walls which held what is now known as the City. It
is at once evident that the early city must have had a nucleus and a
greater density in one part than in others; and every evidence goes
to show that this earliest centre was situated on the east side of the
Walbrook at the head of London Bridge. We have the facts of the
position of the Bridge itself, and the suitability of the site; the
evidence that important buildings were densely packed in this
district, while outside of it they were more and more scattered; and
also that no graves have been found within this area. Mr. Roach
Smith thought that certain remnants of thick walls found near
Cannon Street in the south and Cornhill in the north were probably
parts of earlier city walls. He says: “Here and there during
excavations, walls of great thickness, which may be referred to walls
of circumvallation, were intersected. The extraordinary sub-
structures which were cut through in Bush Lane and Scott’s Yard
indicate a south-east boundary wall with a flanking tower. In Cornhill
another thick wall which seemed to point towards the Bank of
England was met with.” Then, in a passage already referred to
above, he concludes that old London Bridge pointed to the axis of
this earlier Londinium, the centre or carfax of which was at the
intersection of Gracechurch Street and East-Cheap. He was inclined
to place the earlier north wall along the course of Cornhill and
Leadenhall Street, the east wall in the direction of Billiter Street and
Mark Lane, the south in the line of Thames streets, and the west on
the eastern bank of the Walbrook—an irregular square with four
gates, corresponding with Bridge Gate, Bishop’s Gate, Ludgate, and
Aldgate.[213]
 Fig. 35.—Roman Pavement. Drawn in situ by Fairholt, 1854.

Possibly Wren had found some remnant of such an earlier north

wall, for he put the northward extent of the city along Cheapside
and in line with Cornhill. This earlier north wall seems to have been
again found about 1897, in which year Mr. Williamson sent the
following passage to the Middlesex and Herts Notes and Queries:
—“Very close to St. Peter’s-upon-Cornhill, Roman walls of immense
thickness have been discovered, proceeding in a westerly direction
from Leadenhall Market under the Woolpack Tavern in Gracechurch
Street along St. Peter’s Alley, a few feet on the south side of the
churchyard of St. Peter’s, continuing under the banking-house of
Messrs. Prescott, Dimsdale, & Co. (50 Cornhill), supposed to
continue under the roadway of Cornhill, and appearing again in the
foundations of the new building now being erected on the north side
of Cornhill (No. 70) for the Union Bank of Australia. For what
purpose, is it conjectured, were these walls at Leadenhall and
Cornhill built?” By the aid of this valuable observation, I think that
the concluding question may be safely answered by the theory of
earlier walls.
Mr. Loftie has brought forward a suggestion, or rather stated a
conclusion, that there was in the earlier days a walled castrum, like
Richborough, at the head of London Bridge, reaching northwards to
the “Langbourne.” It is not usual to seat such a post on a steep hill-
side, it would be curious to pass all the Bridge traffic through it, and,
finally, I have not found a vestige of foundation for its existence—it
is a castrum in the air.[214]
It may be held for certain that when Tacitus, writing of the
insurrection of a.d. 62, spoke of London as a wealthy and important
place, no walls existed, for of the still more important Camalodunum
he tells us that it had no defences, and the garrison could only
fortify themselves in the temple. “The Roman generals,” he says,
“neglecting the useful, embellished the province, but took no care
for its defence.”
However, it is reasonable to suppose that the chief centres would
have been protected a little later under the very thorough policy of
Agricola, if these shortcomings were so noticed when Tacitus wrote;
and it is the opinion of Mr. Haverfield, our best authority on things
Roman, that the walls of the sister city of Silchester, now so well
known to us, go back to this time.
I cannot think that the greater wall of London dates back to the first
century, but it has never been proved to be later.
 Fig. 36.—Roman Brick inscribed London.

Fig. 37.—Inscription from Roman Brick.

Fragments of sculpture, themselves not very early, have been found

in portions of the wall, yet the Camomile Street bastion and other
similar places might be additions and repairs; and some late
fragments from the south wall found by Roach Smith seem to have
come from its foundation (Figs. 24 and 25).
If it is difficult to offer any convincing argument as to the age of the
wall of London, it is possible to get a general idea of the walled city
and its neighbourhood with some vividness and accuracy. We have
the great tidal river, the background of forest, and the nearer fen-
lands, which seem to have almost insulated the site. There is the
great white posting-road from Canterbury and Dover, and, more
remotely, from Rome, Lyons, Chalons, Auxerre, Troyes, Rheims,
Amiens, Boulogne, striking straight from point to point. On its course
are villas, like one just discovered in Greenwich Park. The road dips
towards the river, and passes over the drained and banked marshes
to the Surrey suburb. There is a gate-tower at the end of the Bridge,
then comes the long and narrow passage over the strong, swift river
to the grey walls of Londinium. Along the river-front are several
wharves formed of timbering, to the left is the creek of the little river
which ran under the west walls, and, still further west, some water-
side villas.[215] Entering the city the street ascends steeply towards
the north gate; others, parallel to its course, lead to two other gates
in the north wall, and two chief routes traverse the city longitudinally
from west gate to east gate, and from west postern to east postern.
A bridge[216] over the Walbrook gives good reason why the street
lines in the eastern half of the city converge toward this point. The
area extending from the north-gate street to the bank of the
Walbrook is covered with the principal buildings closely packed
together.[217] Beyond this central mass of buildings stand isolated
villas in gardens and orchards. In the open belt of ground outside
the walls, and along the roads, west, north, and east, are
cemeteries, the graves marked with sarcophagi and sculptured
headstones, some of imported marble. A theatre somewhat similar
to those at Dorchester, Cirencester, and Silchester is situated without
the west gate, being excavated in the steep bank of the rivulet
between it and the city wall.[218]
 Fig. 38.—Roman Tomb, from outside of the East Walls. Restored.

Fig. 39.—Inscription from Roman Tomb.

Within the walls the city is adorned by more than one bronze statue.
The sculptured ornaments of the public buildings are somewhat rude
and ponderous, but the dwellings are furnished with numerous
imported works of art, such as bronze statuettes, bowls of red
Samian ware, and very beautiful coloured glass vessels of the
millefiore kind. The rooms have their walls painted in bright colours
with birds, flowers, and figures, and imitations of porphyry and
verde antique, while a few are cased with thin slabs of marble. The
pavements are patterned mosaic, and raised above hot air
chambers; lead pipes supply water, the windows are glazed, and the
roofs without are covered with red pantiles. So far there seem to be
authentic data for such a picture. It would be vain to attempt in
many instances to assign the fragments found in excavations to
particular buildings. Roach Smith, however, was of opinion that a
large fragment sculptured with the three seated goddesses, the
Deae Matres, found in Hart Street, Crutched Friars, and now in the
Guildhall, “stood on the outside of a temple dedicated to these
popular divinities.”

Fig. 40.—End of a Roman Tomb found in London.

 Fig. 41.—Leaden Cist.

Fig. 42.—Plate of figured Glass for Decoration.

 Fig. 43.—Roman Inscription.

The illustration of a tomb is made up

from fragments in the British Museum
found in the east wall (Figs. 38 and 39).
A large stone, about two feet high, found fifty years ago below
Clement’s Lane, Lombard Street, bearing “a few letters of the
sounding words provincia britanniae,” was thought by the same
authority to have stood above a civil basilica. This most important
inscription was lodged at the Guildhall, but has disappeared. I have
Roach Smith’s original sketch of it, and a letter asking Fairholt to go
and draw it more carefully. But in his Roman London he complains
that it could not be found. Fortunately, there is a second careful
drawing of the stone in the Archer Collection at the British Museum,
and from this my figure is made.[219]
Following the model of Silchester, it is quite probable that a Christian
church stood in a main street on such a site as the present St.
Peter’s upon Cornhill. The Forum, as has been said, probably lay
north of London Stone, which may have been the golden milestone
of London. Wren thought that the Prætorium occupied the ground
between the two west gates; but the Tower site seems even more
probable.
Bagford refers to the discovery of some Roman water-pipes in Creed
Lane after the fire, which were “carried round a bath that was built
in a round form with niches at an equal distance for seats.”
It has been noticed that the masonry of the walls of the Roman
houses seems to have finished not far above ground as if in
preparation for timbering; other indications of this have been found,
and a rough scratching of a house on a tile shows timber
construction. This has recently been confirmed by the discovery at
Silchester of houses which had timbered framing covered with clay
daubing over wattle work, the outside surface being ornamented
with zigzag patterns like mediæval pargeting, all of brick-red colour.
Before the Roman forces were drawn back to the heart of the
empire, London seems to have grown into the position of British
Metropolis. Its position in regard to the arterial roads when the
itinerary was compiled, shows how it tended to take precedence
over the more military centres. Moreover, while the mint marks of
one or two British cities appear on coins earlier than the mark of
London, in Constantinian days London is the only British city where
money seems to have been coined.[220] In the last days of the
occupation the city had acquired the name of Augusta. We cannot
doubt that the Roman soldiers drawn away to protect their lines of
communication marched Romeward with the intention of returning
again to the city by the Thames when the barbarian Germans and
Goths had been thrust back into their woods and plains; yet the day
of Rome was done, and their retreat was itself an incident in the
advance of a new age.
 APPENDIX

ON MATERIALS FOR THE

CONSTRUCTION OF MAPS OF EARLY
LONDON
In bringing this topographical essay to a conclusion, it may be
desirable to note a few observations on the materials we possess for
making a map of early London, the reconstruction of which, with
considerable fulness and accuracy, is possible. We have in the
Survey of Leeke, made directly after the great fire, and engraved on
two sheets by Vertue from a parchment original, now in the MS.
room of the British Museum (5415. E.I.), an admirable starting-point.
Even the widths of the streets are figured on this plan, and the
forms of St. Paul’s and the other old churches are given with fair
precision. It is entitled “An Exact Survey of the Streets, Lanes, and
Churches, comprehended within the Ruins of the City of London;
first described in six platts in December, Anno Domini, 1666. By John
Leeke.... And here reduced into one entire platt by John Leeke.” This
parchment was engraved by Hollar to a smaller scale, with the
unburnt portions of the city added in isometrical projection. On this
plan the ward boundaries are carefully laid down. As to the ground-
plan of the portions left uninjured by the fire, we can supplement
Leeke’s Survey by the plan Wren made for reconstructing the city,
now at Oxford, which shows the streets and churches of the
uninjured areas; and from Ogilvie’s large map, made only a few
years later, details, such as the block-plans of the churches in the
unburnt part, can be filled in with greater accuracy. From Faithorne’s
map, 1658, some additional facts, especially as to Southwark and
the suburbs, can be obtained, as it is of large extent.[221] Putting all
these together, we have an exact map of London as it existed at the
moment of the fire. Afterwards a few modifications were made in
the streets, but the plan of old London remained practically
unchanged till Southwark Bridge was built and Queen Street made
to lead to it.
We can now check our plan and add to the names of the streets
from Stow’s perambulation of every street and alley, and his account
of ward boundaries and parishes. Further than this, however, we
have in the remarkably clear plot of the city given in Braun and
Hogenburghe’s Civitates Orbis Terrarum (1572), a survey of the city
as it existed about 1570. It is often said that this view must date
back to 1561 at least, as St. Paul’s spire, which was burnt in that
year, is shown in it. But as it was known to be the intention to
rebuild this famous spire at once, it seems probable that a view even
in the interim would not leave it out. It is not quite certain who drew
this admirable map. In the preface to a copy of the book which I
have examined, George Braun of Cologne, January 1, 1575, speaks
of the admirable industry of the painter Hogenburghe, and the living
portraitures he had so carefully painted, so that the cities may be
seen at a glance more easily than in reality. On comparing the
prospects of other cities, it looks almost certain that London was
drawn by the same hand which drew Paris, Brussels, etc. Hofnagle,
who it is thought may have made this prospect, is known to have
been in England in or before 1571. It is to be remarked in this
connection that the plan of London is not numbered with the rest of
the plates; it is marked A, and put in at the beginning of the series
as if it came to hand late.
This valuable map, whoever it may have been drawn by, and
whatever may be its exact date, is delineated according to a method
which is still made use of at times—the buildings, trees, and other
details being figured in perspective. This has resulted in giving the
whole such a pictorial character, that the correctly planned basis is
not at first apparent. I have not seen it pointed out that it is properly
a map and not a view, and this method of projection may be what
Braun refers to in the preface cited above. About this same time
William Smith, the herald, made some drawings of cities; and on one
of Bristol, which is drawn according to the same method as the
London map we are now considering, he writes:—“Bristow,
measured and laid in Platforme by me, W. Smith, at my being in
Bristow the 30 and 31 July Ano Dni 1568” (Sloane MSS. 2596).
Pictorial views of cities had been known for centuries; this “laying in
platform” is, however, new. We may suppose that Smith, the Rouge
Dragon, was not the first to make use of this method in his Survey
of Bristol, and that there must even at this time have existed such a
plan of London; it may also be pointed out that Smith’s MS. view of
London, which may, however, have been made later than the one of
Bristol, is plainly founded on Braun’s plan, or on some original used
in common. Bagford speaks of having seen a single sheet on copper,
from Temple Bar to St. Katharine’s and the Bank-side Southwark,
which seemed to him the best of old London and perhaps the most
ancient.
It is necessary to notice the large woodcut prospect usually called
Aggas’ plan, if only to criticise this ascription, which is accepted in
the Dictionary of National Biography. It is plain on comparing it with
Braun’s plan that one of them is copied from the other, or a common
original source, and this relation is made more certain when we
notice that the large woodcut, which I shall call the Anonymous
plan, has been cut down at the margins, and that it must originally
have included Westminster and St. Katharine’s exactly like Braun’s.
As the Anonymous woodcut plan is far inferior in workmanship to
the other, and as it was still being printed from in the seventeenth
century, there seems to be some likelihood that it is the copy, and
yet, as we shall see, a “Large Mappe” existed before 1580. Although
so little is known in regard to the Anonymous plan, there seems to
be sufficient evidence to negative the idea propounded by Vertue
that it was the work of Aggas. This idea he gained because a view of
Oxford, drawn by Aggas in 1578, and published in 1588, speaks of
his having had a desire to publish a plan of London, but (in 30
Queen Elizabeth, 1588) “meantime the measure, form, and sight I
bring of ancient Oxford.” A trained surveyor like Aggas would hardly
have brought out an enlarged copy of Braun’s map twenty years
after the original. It is probable indeed, considering the spelling of
the names, that Bagford’s observation on the Anonymous plan, that
it seemed to have been “done in Holland,” is true. Mr. Thomas Dodd,
in a MS. letter in the Crace Collection, points out a passage in
Hakluyt where it is advised that the Pit and Jackman Expedition of
1580 should take with them the map of England and the “large
Mappe of London.” Mr. Dodd goes on to point out that Hakluyt also
refers to Clement Adams as an engraver on wood, and he might
have been the author of such a large map, which may be the
Anonymous woodcut plan. Mr. Overall, in his inconclusive preface to
the reproduction of the Anonymous plan, shows that Giles Godhed
had submitted “the Carde of London,” in 1562, to the Stationers’
Company. We might conclude that this was a large plan on the same
projection as Braun and Hogenburghe’s plan, but this is uncertain, as
just at this time there was published an engraved view of St. Paul’s
and the neighbourhood, of which there is a unique copy at the
Society of Antiquaries. The most beautiful plan known to me,
executed after the manner of Braun’s cities, is a large plan of
Bruges, signed by Marcus Gerard, pictor, 1562. Altogether I am
inclined to think that there was such a plan of London existing
before Braun’s, and that the Anonymous plan is a coarse copy of one
of those made in Holland for popular sale some time before 1580.
Braun’s plan, in any case, carries us back on firm ground to the end
of the mediæval period, and by its aid we can check over our former
results for an accurate plan of mediæval London.
Beyond this point we have an overwhelming mass of documentary
evidence, by which the names of the streets, churches, and other
landmarks, can be carried backwards by references in deeds, wills,
patents, close-rolls, and Parliament-rolls, etc. etc. I have little doubt
that almost every street and lane in London which existed in Stow’s
day could be carried back by this means to the thirteenth century,
and a good many can be shown to have borne the same names in
the century after the Conquest.
Then we have the complete list of city churches in the time of
Edward I. given in the Liber Custumarum. The parish boundaries
probably remain much as at that time, and the wards in their
present form go back as far. It may be noted that a study of the
boundaries shows that the parishes are in the main subdivisions of
wards, and not that wards are aggregations of parishes. Such
general documentary evidence can be further supplemented by the
data which we have in regard to particular buildings which are still in
part existing, or of which we have plans and other evidence.
We can accurately reinstate the City wall with its bastions and gates,
the Bridge and the Tower of London. We have ample particulars as
to the Cathedral and precinct of St. Paul’s, with the line of the Close
wall, the position of its gates, and the site of the Campanile in the
north-east corner. The boundaries of the Conventual Establishments
can be plotted, and the buildings within them can, in many cases, be
laid down in detail. The plan of the Guildhall buildings may be
reconstructed, and Hollar and Leeke’s map gives the position of the
Halls of the several Companies. An attempt has been made in the
body of this work to sift out what can be learned of a still more
remote London.

THE END

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Footnotes:
[1] Mr. Green, from the long sections dealing with London in The
Making of England and The Conquest of England, must be reckoned
among the specialists on London. I shall often have to criticise Mr.
Loftie’s conclusions, but I do so merely because those are the views
in possession at the present time. His books have the distinction of
having revived an interest in London topography.
[2] E.g. Mr. Loftie’s most recent book, London Afternoons.
[3] Origines Celticæ.
[4] Loftie, vol. i. ch. ii.
[5] Hearne actually says it is Long-town.
[6] Canon Isaac Taylor, Dict. of Place-Names.
[7] Social England, vol. i.
[8] Rhys, Celtic Britain.
[9] Ramsay, vol. i. p. 32.
[10] See Ludgate below.
[11] Now represented by Edgware Road.
[12] See Dict. Nat. Biog., and De la Moyne Borderie.
[13] Thorpe’s Ancient Laws.
[14] Joceline de Brakelonde, p. 56, cited by Wright.
[15] Cal. St. Paul’s MSS., Ninth Report Historic MSS. Com., p. 65.
[16] Rhys, Celtic Britain; Elton’s Origins.
[17] Thomas Wright says the Billings, a Saxon people, settled at
Billingsgate, and Mr. W. H. Stevenson derives the name from Billing,
a Saxon name.
[18] There is probably some fact at the bottom of this story: perhaps
the sword of St. Paul was carved on the Bishop’s Gate. According to
Geoffrey, the older Belinus had been placed in a golden urn on
Billingsgate.
[19] Robert of Gloucester.
[20] See the story of Lludd in the Mabinogion.
[21] English Hist. Rev. vol. ii.
[22] Episcopal Succession.
[23] Celtic Britain, p. 124.
[24] C. F. Keary, Vikings.
[25] Asser.
[26] Asser.
[27] See Ramsay, Foundations of England, vol. i. p. 126.
[28] Compare Tame, Tamar, Teme, Tean, Teign. See Surrey
Collections, vol. v.
[29] Three Fifteenth Century Chronicles, Camden Society.
[30] See Green, Making of England, vol. i. p. 105; Surrey Collections,
vol. iii.; and Athenæum, 1901, No. 3838.
[31] Polyolbion.
[32] Bailey.
[33] Calendar of St. Paul’s MSS.
[34] Dugdale’s Monasticon, art. “Temple”; and Round’s Geoffrey de
Mandeville.
[35] Transactions of London and Middlesex Archæological Society,
vol. iv.
[36] Hardy and Page, London and Middlesex Fines, vol. i. p. 3; see
also Dugdale.
[37] London and Middlesex Fines.
[38] Kempe translates the same passage, “From the north angle of
the City wall, where a rivulet of Springs near thereto flowing marks it
out (i.e. the moor) from the wall as far as the running water which
entereth the City” (Sanctuary of St. Martin).
[39] Eng. Hist. Rev., 1896.
[40] A.S. dictionaries give Wylle-burn = Wellbrook.
[41] Other cases of churches called by personal names are St. Benet
Fink, St. Martin Orgar, St. Martin Outwich, etc.
[42] St. Stephen’s Walbrook is mentioned in a charter of c. 1100.
See “Churches,” below.
[43] Dr. Sharpe, Letter Book A.
[44] Archæological Journal, vol. i. p. 111.
[45] Roman Antiquities on Site of Safe Deposit, and Roman
Pavement in Bucklersbury; see also Archæological Review, vol. iv.
[46] Letter Book A.
[47] Price, Safe Deposit, p. 30.
[48] Origines Celticæ, vol. ii.
[49] Sir J. H. Ramsay.
[50] Maitland sounded the river, and thought that there had been a
ford at Chelsea; and the large number of Celtic and Roman
antiquities found from time to time at Battersea and Wandsworth
incline me to the view that there was a passage here.
[51] Horsley’s account of the Roman roads is still the best general
authority; but see the Antiquary for 1901-2. The subject is being
carefully re-examined in the new Victorian County Histories.
[52] Thorpe.
[53] The last, like all names compounded of “street,” is a significant
name wherever found.
[54] Clark, Military Architecture, vol. i. p. 31.
[55] Hardy and Page, Fines; and see Stow.
[56] London and Middlesex Archæological Society Trans., vol. iii. p.
563.
[57] London and Middlesex Fines.
[58] Ackerman’s Westminster, vol. i. p. 74.
[59] For Old Ford see London and Middlesex Archæological Society
Trans., vol. iii. p. 206.
[60] Crawford Charters.
[61] Bentley’s Cartulary of Westminster Abbey, p. 4.
[62] See Archæologia, vol. xxvi., and, on the Tyburn, the London
and Middlesex Archæological Society Trans., vol. vi.
[63] Surrey Collections, vol. i.
[64] See Faulkner’s Chelsea.
[65] Kemble, No. 872. See also Arnold’s Streatham.
[66] Eng. Hist. Rev. 1898.
[67] See Rhys, Celtic Britain. The compiler of the pseudo-itinerary of
R. of Cirencester writes Guethlin Street.
[68] It has been argued that if the Britons had chariots they must
also have had roads; and it is generally held that the Icknield and
other “Ridgeways” are of British origin. Mr. Boyd Dawkins has
recently shown, from objects found in a camp with which the Pilgrim
Way from Canterbury is associated, that this ridge-road is early
Celtic at latest. It seems reasonable to suggest that it joined the
Icknield Way, and that they formed an early road-system crossing
the river at Wallingford.
[69] A paved way, thought to be the Watling Street, has just been
found in Edgware Road. It was 20 feet wide, 3.6 below surface, and
pitched with “boulders.” A fragment was also found in Oxford Street.
[70] Kemble, Codex Dip. 591.
[71] Powell and Vigfusson’s Corpus.
[72] I do not share this view as to Claudius and the bridge. Sir J. H.
Ramsay even suggests that it may have been the work of
Cunobeline.
[73] Roach Smith, Archæological Journal, vol. i. p. 112.
[74] Bruce, Handbook to the Roman Wall.
[75] See Price’s Bucklersbury.
[76] Making of England, pp. 21, 105.
[77] Hermann, De Mirac. S. Edmund, p. 43; see Eng. Hist. Rev. vol.
xii. p. 49.
[78] Home Counties Mag. vol. i.
[79] Leland.
[80] Earle, Land Charters; and Codex Dip. No. 280.
[81] Cal. p. 25.
[82] Archæologia, lii.
[83] In the A.S. dictionaries Crepel stands for an underground
passage: there is said to be a Cripplegate on the Wansdyke.
[84] Archæologia, lii.
[85] Loftie’s London, and London in “Historic Towns” series; maps in
Green’s Short History, and in Miss Norgate’s Angevin Kings.
[86] It seems necessary to notice these points in such excellent
books, as they are repeated in Sir W. Besant’s London, p. 19, and
more recent works, as if they were settled. Mr. Loftie, in a still later
book, London City (1891), writes: “We know that Aldgate was
opened about sixty years before FitzStephen’s time. Aldersgate must
have been made soon after the Conquest, and Cripplegate, with its
covered way to the Barbican, cannot have been much later.” In
“Historic Towns” volume he says: “The foundations of the North Gate
were lately found in Camomile Street. The massive masonry of the
West Gate was also lately uncovered in Giltspur Street.” In his
London Afternoons Ludgate appears as probably the latest of the
gates. All this is conjecture and, as I have shown, contrary to the
evidence.
[87] London and Middlesex Archæological Society Trans. vol. iii.
[88] Illustrations of Roman London.
[89] Thorpe’s Ancient Laws.
[90] Earle, Land Charter.
[91] W. de G. Birch, London Charters.
[92] Kemble, Codex Dip. No. 1074.
[93] Leland, Coll. vol. i.
[94] J. H. Round, Calendar of French Documents.
[95] J. H. Round, Feudal England, p. 320.
[96] London and the Kingdom.
[97] Pauli, Pictures of Old London.
[98] Price, Hist. Guildhall. In a deed, temp. Henry III., the Gildhall of
the Cologne Merchants is said to be near Hay Wharf, for which see
Stow.
[99] J. H. Round, Calendar of French Documents. See also Soc de
Waremanshaker and St. Peter Ghent in Dugdale, vol. ii. p. 384.
[100] Calendar of St. Paul’s Documents.
[101] Dugdale, vol. vi. p. 623.
[102] Codex Dip. ii. p. 3.
[103] Heimskringla.
[104] C. F. Keary, Vikings, p. 125.
[105] J. Earle, Saxon Chronicles.
[106] It is true it has been shown by Mr. Round that about two
centuries later than this time Arx was a technical word for a military
tower, and it is used by FitzStephen for the Tower of London itself:
on the other hand, passages cited in Domesday and Beyond, p. 187,
show that earlier it was convertible with castrum or burh, and it is
beginning to be believed that burh means a castrum rather than a
mound. Grants of property run, “within Burh and without Burh, on
Street and off Street.” Alfred himself writes of “Romeburh” and
“Babylonburh.”
[107] It is usually said that the members of the gild entered Holy
Trinity Monastery, but this Mr. Round has shown is a misconception.
[108] Alfred Memorial volume.
[109] Journal British Archæological Association, 1900.
[110] Domesday and Beyond, p. 192.
[111] “I have been in White Hill in the Court of Cynvelyn” (Taliessin).
According to a Triad it was Arthur who disinterred the head of Bran,
disdaining to be so protected.
[112] Dr. Maitland, Domesday and Beyond.
[113] The Anglo-Saxon chronicler under 878 tells how Alfred made a
geweorc at Athelney.
[114] As to the Danes holding the burh with London, see above, p.
68. I find London “and the Boro” mentioned together early in the
thirteenth century.
[115] See G. R. Corner, Archæologia, vol. xxv.
[116] Saxon Chronicle.
[117] On the boundary of Paris Gardens was an embankment called
the Old Broad Wall.
[118] See “House of Lewes Priory,” Archæologia, vol. xxxviii.
[119] So well informed a guide as Baedeker says the Abbey was so
named with reference to Eastminster by the Tower, which was only
founded in the fourteenth century.
[120] See Sir J. H. Ramsay, vol. i. p. 422.
[121] See, for example, Hardy and Page, London and Middlesex
Fines, p. 3. This volume also shows that Norton Folgate was formerly
called Norton Folyot from a well-known family.
[122] Calendar of St. Paul’s Documents, p. 25.
[123] A sixteenth-century London document has “stoop or post.”
[124] Athenæum, 8th July 1899.
[125] Compare “portmeadows” and lands belonging to citizens
elsewhere. At Colchester in 1086 there was a strip eight perches
wide surrounding the town wall. As late as 1833 the borough of
Bedford included “a broad belt of land.” For a full account of the
commonable fields of Cambridge and a discussion of the subject
generally, see Maitland’s Township and Borough. The London
boundary was called the Line of Separation.
[126] The common pasturage of Westminster is mentioned in a
charter.
[127] London and Middlesex Archæological Society Trans., vol. v.
See also for these documents Dr. Sharpe’s Letter Book C.
[128] See also Stow’s account of the alienation of common lands.
Mile-End, according to Froissart, was “a fair plain place where the
people of the city did sport them in summer.”
[129] Fenchurch also seems to have been connected with this land,
or at least the eastern suburb.
[130] The Friday fair of horses still lasted when Froissart wrote his
account of Wat Tyler.
[131] Township and Borough and Village Community.
[132] Hudson Turner.
[133] Making of England.
[134] See Green’s Conquest of England.
[135] In the summary of reigns at the end of Florence’s Chronicle he
speaks more than once of “London and the adjacent country” as
going together.
[136] See L. Gomme, Village Community, p. 212.
[137] Munday. Loftie says there was another Romeland at Dowgate.
[138] Calendar of Ancient Deeds.
[139] See J. H. Round, Commune of London, p. 99.
[140] Riley, Sharpe, Loftie’s two books, French Chronicle of London,
notes.
[141] Or Langbourne and Fenny-about, as the east and west halves
of this ward seem to have been sometimes called.
[142] Sharpe’s Calendar of Wills, vol. i.
[143] Calendar of Ancient Deeds, vol. iii.
[144] Riley’s Memorials.
[145] The Liber Trinitatis states that the precinct of Holy Trinity
Aldgate was “of old” (pre-Conquest) one parish of Holy Rood. Two
adjoining parishes are mentioned in a twelfth century charter
(Commune of Lond. p. 253)—St. Laurence de Judaismo and St.
Marie de Aldermanebury.
[146] Judicia civitatis Londoniæ.
[147] Liber Albus, p. 80.
[148] A document of about 1120-30 at St. Paul’s gives us the name
of “Salidus, Bedellus Warde.”
[149] Liber Albus, p. 32.
[150] Archæological Journal, vol. iv. p. 278.
[151] Kemble, Codex Dip. 685.
[152] See Dugdale, who is wrong, however, in saying it was called a
“Palatine tower.” Stow applies this grant to Bridewell by mistake.
[153] See the genealogy as given by Mr. Round. It is interesting to
find that the arms of Fitzwalter, the banner-bearer of London, a fess
between two cheverons, is but a difference from the three cheverons
of Clare.
[154] The arms of the Munfichets were similar to the arms of Clare,
with the difference only of a label of five points. From this fact we
may suppose that the families were allied. Munfichet Castle
afterwards fell into the hands of the Fitzwalters.
[155] Howell’s Londinopolis, 1657.
[156] Dr. H. J. Nicholson, History of the Abbey of St. Albans,
Newcourt, and Maitland’s London, vol. ii. p. 1051.
[157] Dr. Sharpe considers that the Royal was the name of a street
near Dowgate, so called from La Reole, near Bordeaux.
[158] T. E. Price, Safe Deposit, p. 29.
[159] Archæol. xxix.
[160] J. Kempe, Archæologia, vol. xxiv.
[161] A large open Cheap is put in various parts by different writers.
Mr. Joseph Jacobs, in an interesting inquiry as to the Jewry, makes
the ground south of the Guildhall an open market.
[162] Codex Dip. i. p. 133. The Wilton Domesday gives a Magnus
Vicus at Winchester.
[163] Parentalia.
[164] London and Middlesex Transactions, vol. ii.
[165] See J. E. Price, Safe Deposit. Price claims that the crypt found
by Wren at Bow Church and described as Roman by him is not the
now existing crypt. But the text and index of Parentalia plainly prove
that the present church was built on it, and therefore it was the
existing Norman structure.
Price says that remains of a bridge were found in Bucklersbury, and
that a Roman road, possibly a continuation of that by Bow Church,
passed here.
[166] Hudson Turner’s Domestic Archr., vol. i. App.; Calendar of St.
Paul’s Documents, Sharpe’s Calendar of Wills, Calendar of Ancient
Deeds, etc. In the last it is called Aphelingestrate in 1232.
[167] Dr. Sharpe’s Calendar of Wills.
[168] Sharon Turner, History of the Anglo-Saxons.
[169] Alfred Memorial volume, 1899.
[170] Riley’s Memorials.
[171] Issac.
[172] Godefroi’s Dictionary.
[173] It is designed on the pattern of the famous monogram of
Justinian, having for basis the letter N.
[174] Still more recent finds at St. Albans seem to show that here
also the forum was an important building in the centre of the city.
[175] See account of Saxon Winchester in Hudson Turner’s Domestic
Archr., vol. i., and of Canterbury before the Conquest, by Geoff.
Faussett.
[176] Winton Domesday mentions Fishmongers’ Street, Tanner
Street, and Gold Street.
[177] The Golden Legend.
[178] Right through the Middle Ages the close of St. Paul’s is called
Atrium S. Pauli.
[179] Parentalia.
[180] Thorpes’ Analecta.
[181] Cotton Charters, 11 Aug. 85.
[182] Richard of Cirencester, also Stow.
[183] See W. Maitland’s London, and Green’s Conquest of England.
[184] London and Middlesex Archæological Society’s Trans. vol. ii.
[185] Sir H. Ellis, Introduction to Domesday.
[186] See Eng. Hist. Rev. vol. xvi.
[187] For the last see Round, Geoffrey de Mandeville.
[188] For many other churches mentioned in the twelfth century see
Calendar of St. Paul’s Documents, Historical MSS. Reports, which I
have not drawn upon in this place. Several other churches may be
presumed to be ancient from their dedication, such as St. Pancras
(destroyed at the great fire). Green (Conquest of England) attributes
St. Augustine, St. Gregory, St. Benet, and St. Faith, to Bishop
Erkenwald.
[189] For Strand churches see Sanders in Archæologia, vol. xxvi.
Gibbs found work which he thought was Roman under St. Martin’s-
in-the-Fields. For an early foundation at Smithfield see Malcolm.
[190] Dugdale, under Bermondsey.
[191] The “Pedlar of Swaffham” and some Welsh stories refer to the
bridge in the same way. See Rhys, Celtic Folklore.
[192] Hist. MSS. Report of St. Paul’s Documents, p. 49.
[193] See T. H. Round, Commune of London.
[194] Geoffrey de Mandeville, p. 436.
[195] Thorpe, pp. 97-103.
[196] London and the Kingdom. In Winton Domesday is written
Chenictes tenebat la chenictehalla ubi potabant gildam suam.
[197] Does this mean the lost charter constituting the mayor?
[198] Camden Society.
[199] Lick up the penny—Howell writes, “Some call London a
Lickpenny, as Paris is called a Pick-purse, because of feastings and
other occasions of expense.”
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