Notes
Notes
Project management refers to the process of planning, organizing, directing, and controlling
company resources to achieve specific goals within a set time-frame, budget, and according to
defined performance specifications. A project is a one-time, unique effort that has specific
objectives, a start and end date, and consumes resources. Projects are typically multifaceted, often
involving various teams, skills, and departments.
Non-Numeric Models
These models don't rely on numbers but instead on intuition, judgment, and experience. Here are
some non-numeric models:
Numeric Models
These models use numerical data to evaluate and select projects. They involve financial and risk
assessments and are more structured than non-numeric models.
Profit/Profitability Models:
• What it is: Projects are evaluated based on their potential to generate profit. The
profitability of a project is a common criterion for project selection.
• Example: A company evaluates several projects, and the one that offers the highest expected
return on investment (ROI) is chosen.
A. Deterministic Models
These methods assume a known, fixed set of variables and provide straightforward calculations.
1. Break-Even Analysis:
• What it is: A method to determine when a project will start making a profit by
comparing costs and revenues. The point at which total revenues equal total costs is
called the break-even point.
• Example: A company invests $100,000 to launch a new product. The break-even
analysis would calculate how many units need to be sold to recover that investment.
2. Payback Period Method:
• What it is: This method calculates how long it will take for a project to repay its
initial investment.
• Example: If a company invests $200,000 in a new machine that generates $50,000
per year in revenue, the payback period is 4 years (200,000 / 50,000).
3. Average Rate of Return (ARR):
• What it is: A method that evaluates the profitability of a project by calculating the
average annual profit as a percentage of the initial investment.
• Example: A project that generates $50,000 per year in profit with an initial
investment of $200,000 would have an ARR of 25% (50,000 / 200,000).
4. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Methods:
• These methods take the time value of money into account (i.e., money today is worth
more than money in the future).
a) Net Present Value (NPV):
• What it is: This method calculates the total value of future cash flows, adjusted for
the time value of money. If the NPV is positive, the project is considered profitable.
• Example: A project that promises $100,000 in profits over 5 years might have a
discounted value of $85,000 today. If the initial investment is less than $85,000, it’s a
good investment.
b) Internal Rate of Return (IRR):
• What it is: The rate at which the NPV of the project equals zero. It helps determine
the potential return rate of a project.
• Example: A project that offers an IRR of 15% means the project is expected to
generate a return of 15% per year on the initial investment.
5. Discounted Payback Period:
• What it is: A variation of the Payback Period method, but it takes into account the
time value of money. It calculates how long it will take for the discounted cash flows
to recover the initial investment.
B. Probabilistic Models
These methods account for uncertainty and risk by considering different possible outcomes.
1. Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate Method:
• What it is: A variation of the NPV method that adjusts the discount rate based on the
risk of the project.
• Example: Riskier projects may use a higher discount rate to account for potential
volatility.
2. Certainty-Equivalent Approach:
• What it is: This method adjusts uncertain cash flows to reflect their certain
equivalent value, reducing the value of uncertain future cash flows.
3. Expected Monetary Value (EMV):
• What it is: A probabilistic method that calculates the average expected outcome of a
project by weighting each possible outcome by its probability.
• Example: A project has a 50% chance of making $100,000 and a 50% chance of
losing $50,000. The EMV would be (0.5 * 100,000) + (0.5 * -50,000) = $25,000.
4. Hillier’s and Hertz’s Models:
• What they are: These models use simulations and decision trees to evaluate the risk
and rewards of a project, helping decision-makers make more informed choices
under uncertainty.
These models help organizations decide which projects to undertake based on the expected financial
return and the potential risks involved. Depending on the context and available data, different
models can be used to assess projects' feasibility and align them with strategic goals.