Network Analysis

Program Evaluation and Review Technique

(PERT)
Program Evaluation and Review Technique
(PERT)
• In the CPM of scheduling projects, the duration of each activity is usually
defined with a reasonable degree of certainty. For most projects the type and
amount of work is known, which enables the project manager to establish the
approximate duration for each work activity.

• Using the CPM, the assignment of one duration to each activity provides a
deterministic process for the start and finish dates of each activity and a single
finish date for the entire project.

• The PERT method of scheduling uses three durations for each activity and the
fundamental statistics to determine the probability of a project finishing
earlier or later than expected.
Difference between PERT & CPM
ESTIMATING ACTIVITY TIMES
Three time estimates are required to compute the parameters
of an activity’s duration distribution:
• Optimistic time (t0): The optimistic time is the shortest possible
time in which the activity could possibly be completed, assuming
that everything goes well. There is only a very small chance of
completing the activity in less than this time.

• Most likely time (tm): The most likely time is the time the activity
could be accomplished if it could be repeated many times under
exactly the same conditions. It is the time that it would take more
often than any other time. The most likely time is the time the
manager would probably give if asked for a single time estimate.

• Pessimistic time (tp): The pessimistic time is the longest time the
activity could ever require, assuming that everything goes poorly.
There is only a very small chance of expecting this activity to
exceed this time.
EXPECTED TIME
PERT uses a weighted average of the three times to find the
overall project duration.
This average is called the expected time, te and is found by
the following simple equation:

te = to + 4tm + tp
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 DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
The three time estimates of PERT can be used to measure the
degree of uncertainty involved in the activity. The measure of the
spread of the distribution is called the standard deviation(s).

To determine the probability of the project completing earlier or

later than expected using PERT, the variance of each activity along
the critical path must be calculated. The variance (v) of an activity
is the square of the standard deviation of the activity (v=s2).

Standard deviation of the time required to complete the project

s = tp - to
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Since the duration (te) of each of the activities is uncertain, the
time of occurrence (TE) of each event is also subject to uncertainty.
The TE, for the final event in a project has all the critical path
activities in the chain that lead up to the final event in the project.
The measure of uncertainty of the final event in a PERT diagram is
the standard deviation of the expected time (σ TE ) is the square
root of the sum of the variance of all activities along the critical
path.
The σ TE is calculated with the following equation:

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 Probability computation

Determine probability that project is completed within specified

time:

x-
Z=


where  = tp = project mean time

 = project standard mean time
x = (proposed ) specified time

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PERT analysis
• Draw the network diagram.

• Analyze the paths through the network and find the critical path.

• The length of the critical path is the mean of the project duration
probability distribution which is assumed to be normal

• The standard deviation of the project duration probability

distribution is computed by adding the variances of the critical
activities (all of the activities that make up the critical path) and
taking the square root of that sum

• Probability computations can now be made using the normal

distribution table.
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 EXAMPLE
The time estimates (in hours) for the activities of a
PERT network are given below:

ACTIVITY OPTIMISTIC MOST LIKELY PESSIMISTIC

to tm tp
1-2 1 1 7
1-3 1 4 7
1-4 2 2 8
2-5 1 1 1
3-5 2 5 14
4-6 2 5 8
5-6 3 6 15

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(a) Draw the project network

(b) Identify all paths through it and write critical path.

(c) Determine the expected project length

(d) Calculate standard deviation and variance of the project length

(e) What is the percentage of confidence that the project will complete
 I. at least 4 weeks earlier then expected time
 II. not more than 4 weeks than the expected time

(f) What should be the scheduled complication times for the

probability of complication are 90% confidence and 100% confidence?
Given data P(Z≤ 1.33) ₌ 0.9082, P(Z ≤ 1.28) ₌ 0.9,P(Z ≤ 5) ₌ 0.99999.

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i) The Network is given by the following diagram

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 Revision question
Given the uncertainties in accurately estimating activity durations of the
following project, what is the probability of completing the project by the
deadline (47 weeks)?
Activity Activity Description Predecessors Optimistic time Most likely Pessimistic time
(a) time (b)
(m)
A Excavate ---------- 1 2 3
B Lay the foundation A 2 3.5 8
C Put up the rough wall B 6 9 18
D Put up the roof C 4 5.5 10
E Install the exterior plumbing C 1 4.5 5
F Install the interior plumbing E 4 4 10
G Put up the exterior siding D 5 6.5 11
H Do the exterior painting E, G 5 8 17
I Do the electrical work C 3 7.5 9
J Put up the wallboard F, I 3 9 9
K Install the flooring J 4 4 4
L Do the interior painting J 1 5.5 7
M Install the exterior fixtures H 1 2 3
N Install the interior fixtures K, L 5 5.5 9

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