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Bayes 2

The document outlines the solution to a Bayesian network problem involving variables related to burglary, earthquake, alarm, and calls from John and Mary. It details the computation of probabilities P(M|B) and P(J, M|B) using Bayes' Theorem, marginalization, and conditional independence. The final results are P(M|B) = 0.6586 and P(J, M|B) = 0.5594.

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23 views3 pages

Bayes 2

The document outlines the solution to a Bayesian network problem involving variables related to burglary, earthquake, alarm, and calls from John and Mary. It details the computation of probabilities P(M|B) and P(J, M|B) using Bayes' Theorem, marginalization, and conditional independence. The final results are P(M|B) = 0.6586 and P(J, M|B) = 0.5594.

Uploaded by

minmattral
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Problem 2 Solution

Step 1: Understanding the Problem


We have a Bayesian network involving the following variables:

• B (Burglary)
• E (Earthquake)
• A (Alarm)
• J (John Calls)
• M (Mary Calls)

We are given conditional probability tables (CPTs) and need to com-


pute:

1. P (M |B)
2. P (J, M |B)

We will use Bayes’ Theorem, product rule, marginalization, and con-


ditional independence as needed.

Step 2: Compute P (M |B)


We need to find the probability that Mary calls given that a burglary has oc-
curred.

P (M |B) = P (M, A|B) + P (M, ¬A|B)


Using the chain rule:

P (M, A|B) = P (M |A)P (A|B)

P (M, ¬A|B) = P (M |¬A)P (¬A|B)


We extract the known values from the problem:

• P (M |A) = 0.70
• P (M |¬A) = 0.01
• P (A|B, E) = 0.95, P (A|B, ¬E) = 0.94
• P (A|¬B, E) = 0.29, P (A|¬B, ¬E) = 0.001
• P (B) = 0.001
• P (E) = 0.002

1
Step 2.1: Compute P (A|B) (Marginalization Over E)
We marginalize over E:

P (A|B) = P (A|B, E)P (E) + P (A|B, ¬E)P (¬E)


Substituting the values:

P (A|B) = (0.95 × 0.002) + (0.94 × 0.998)

P (A|B) = 0.0019 + 0.93812 = 0.94002

Step 2.2: Compute P (¬A|B)


P (¬A|B) = 1 − P (A|B) = 1 − 0.94002 = 0.05998

Step 2.3: Compute P (M |B)


P (M |B) = (P (M |A)P (A|B)) + (P (M |¬A)P (¬A|B))

P (M |B) = (0.70 × 0.94002) + (0.01 × 0.05998)

P (M |B) = 0.65801 + 0.0005998 = 0.6586


Thus,

P (M |B) = 0.6586

Step 3: Compute P (J, M |B)


Using the chain rule:

P (J, M |B) = P (J|M, B)P (M |B)


Since J and M are conditionally independent given A:

P (J, M |B) = P (J|B)P (M |B)


We already found P (M |B) = 0.6586, now we compute P (J|B).

P (J|B) = P (J|A)P (A|B) + P (J|¬A)P (¬A|B)

P (J|B) = (0.90 × 0.94002) + (0.05 × 0.05998)

P (J|B) = 0.84602 + 0.002999 = 0.849

2
Step 3.1: Compute P (J, M |B)
P (J, M |B) = P (J|B)P (M |B)

P (J, M |B) = 0.849 × 0.6586

P (J, M |B) = 0.5594


Thus,

P (J, M |B) = 0.5594

Final Answers
• P (M |B) = 0.6586

• P (J, M |B) = 0.5594

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