Probability

Example 1: A picnic party is conducting a raffle draw where 50

tickets are to be sold one per participant. There are three prizes to be
awarded. If the 4 organizers of the raffle each buys one ticket, what is
the probability that the 4 organizers

i. Win all the prizes?

ii. Win exactly 2 of the prizes?

iii. Win exactly 1 of the prizes?

iv. Win none of the prizes?
Solution: There are 50𝐶3 = 19600 ways to choose the winners.

i. There are 4𝐶3 = 4 ways for the organizers to win all of the prizes.
4𝐶3 4
Hence the desired probability is= =
50𝐶3 19600
ii. The organizers can win exactly 2 of the prizes if the other 46
participants win 1 prize. There are 4𝐶2 × 46𝐶1 = 276 ways for this
4𝐶2 ×46𝐶1 276
to occur. Hence the desired probability is= =
50𝐶3 19600
iii. The organizers can win exactly 1 of the prize if the other 46
participants win 2 prizes. There are 4𝐶1 × 46𝐶2 = 4140 ways for
4𝐶1 ×46𝐶2 4140
this to occur. Hence the desired probability is= =
50𝐶3 19600
iv. The organizers can win none of the prizes if the other 46
participants win all 3 prizes. There are 4𝐶0 × 46𝐶3 = 15180 ways
for this to occur.
4𝐶0 ×46𝐶3 15180
Hence the desired probability is= =
50𝐶3 19600
 Example 2: Three bulbs are chosen at random from a lot of 15 bulbs of
which 5 are defective. Find the probability that
i. None are defective
ii. Exactly one is defective
iii. At least one is defective
Solution: There are 15𝐶3 = 455 ways to choose the bulbs.

i. There are 10 non-defective bulbs. There are 10𝐶3 = 120 ways to

choose all the bulbs are non-defective. Hence the desired probability
10𝐶3 120
is= =
15𝐶3 455
ii. If exactly one bulb is defective then the other two bulbs are non-
defective. There are 5𝐶1 × 10𝐶2 = 225 ways for this to occur. Hence
5𝐶1 ×10𝐶2 225
the desired probability is= =
15𝐶3 455
iii. The probability of at least one defective bulb is
𝑃(𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑢𝑙𝑏) = 1 − 𝑃( 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑢𝑙𝑏)
120 335
=1− =
455 455
Example 3: Examination results of 150 students showed that 95
students passed mathematics, 75 students passed economics and 135
students passed at least one of the above subjects. A student is selected
at random. Find the probability that
i. Passed both mathematics and economics
ii. Failed both the subjects
iii. Passed mathematics but failed economics
Baye’s Theorem: If 𝐵1 , 𝐵2 , 𝐵3 , ⋯ ⋯ , 𝐵𝑛 are mutually exclusive events

with 𝑃(𝐵𝑖 ) ≠ 0, 𝑖 = 1,2,3, ⋯ ⋯ , 𝑛 of a random experiment then for any

arbitrary event 𝐴 of the sample space of the above experiment with

𝑃(𝐴) > 0, we have,

𝑃(𝐵𝑖 )𝑃(𝐴/𝐵𝑖 )
𝑃(𝐵𝑖 /𝐴) =
∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑃(𝐵𝑖 )𝑃(𝐴/𝐵𝑖 )

Say, if 𝑛 = 3,

𝑃 (𝐵1 )𝑃(𝐴/𝐵1 )
𝑃(𝐵1 /𝐴) =
𝑃(𝐵1 )𝑃(𝐴/𝐵1 ) + 𝑃(𝐵2 )𝑃(𝐴/𝐵2 ) + 𝑃(𝐵3 )𝑃(𝐴/𝐵3 )

𝑃(𝐵2 )𝑃(𝐴/𝐵2 )
𝑃(𝐵2 /𝐴) =
𝑃(𝐵1 )𝑃(𝐴/𝐵1 ) + 𝑃(𝐵2 )𝑃(𝐴/𝐵2 ) + 𝑃(𝐵3 )𝑃(𝐴/𝐵3 )

𝑃(𝐵3 )𝑃(𝐴/𝐵3 )
𝑃(𝐵3 /𝐴) =
𝑃(𝐵1 )𝑃(𝐴/𝐵1 ) + 𝑃(𝐵2 )𝑃(𝐴/𝐵2 ) + 𝑃(𝐵3 )𝑃(𝐴/𝐵3 )

Example 1: Three boxes contain 6 red, 4 black; 4 red, 6 black and 5 red,

5 black balls respectively. One of the box is selected at random and a

ball is drawn from it. If the ball drawn is red find the probability that it is

drawn from the first box.

Solution: Let, 𝐵1 : the ball is drawn from box I

𝐵2 : the ball is drawn from box II

𝐵3 : the ball is drawn from box III

𝑅: the ball is red

We have to find 𝑃(𝐵1 /𝑅 )

By Baye’s Theorem,

𝑃 (𝐵1 )𝑃(𝑅/𝐵1 )
𝑃(𝐵1 /𝑅 ) = ⋯ (𝑖)
𝑃(𝐵1 )𝑃(𝑅/𝐵1 ) + 𝑃(𝐵2 )𝑃(𝑅/𝐵2 ) + 𝑃(𝐵3 )𝑃(𝑅/𝐵3 )

Since, three boxes are equally likely to be selected, so

1
𝑃(𝐵1 ) = 𝑃(𝐵2 ) = 𝑃(𝐵3 ) =
3
6
𝑃(𝑅/𝐵1 ) = 𝑃( 𝑎 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑖𝑠 𝑑𝑟𝑤𝑎𝑛 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑏𝑜𝑥 𝐼) =
10

4
𝑃(𝑅/𝐵2 ) = 𝑃( 𝑎 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑖𝑠 𝑑𝑟𝑤𝑎𝑛 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑏𝑜𝑥 𝐼𝐼) =
10

5
𝑃(𝑅/𝐵3 ) = 𝑃( 𝑎 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑖𝑠 𝑑𝑟𝑤𝑎𝑛 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑏𝑜𝑥 𝐼𝐼𝐼 ) =
10

So from (𝑖),
1 6
× 2
3 10
𝑃(𝐵1 /𝑅 ) = 1 6 1 4 1 5 =
× + × + × 5
3 10 3 10 3 10

Example 2: In a bolt factory, machines A, B and C manufacture

respectively 25%, 35%, 40% of the total. If their output 5, 4 and 2 per

cent are defective bolts. A bolt is drawn from at random from the
product and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it was

manufactured by machine B?

Solution: Let, 𝐴: bolt is manufactured by machine A

𝐵: bolt is manufactured by machine B

𝐶: bolt is manufactured by machine C

𝐷: defective bolt

We have to find 𝑃(𝐵/𝐷)

By Baye’s Theorem,

𝑃(𝐵)𝑃(𝐷/𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵/𝐷) = ⋯ (𝑖)
𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐷/𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)𝑃(𝐷/𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶 )𝑃(𝐷/𝐶 )
25 35 40
Here, 𝑃(𝐴) = = 0.25, 𝑃(𝐵) = = 0.35, 𝑃(𝐶 ) = = 0.40
100 100 100

The probability of drawing a defective bolt manufactured by machine A

5
is 𝑃(𝐷/𝐴) = = 0.05
100

The probability of drawing a defective bolt manufactured by machine B

4
is 𝑃(𝐷/𝐵) = = 0.04
100

The probability of drawing a defective bolt manufactured by machine C

2
is 𝑃(𝐷/𝐶 ) = = 0.02
100
So from (𝑖),

0.35 × 0.04
𝑃(𝐵/𝐷) = = 0.41
0.25 × 0.05 + 0.35 × 0.04 + 0.40 × 0.02

Exercise

1. Two boxes contain 3 white, 4 red and 5 white, 6 red balls

respectively. One of the box is selected at random and a ball is

drawn from it. If the ball drawn is white find the probability that it

is drawn from the first box.

THANK YOU
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