Experiment-13

Write a Python program to construct a Bayesian network considering medical data. Use this
model to demonstrate the diagnosis of heart patients using standard Heart Disease Data Set

Bayesian belief network is key computer technology for dealing with

probabilistic events and to solve a problem which has uncertainty. We can
define a Bayesian network as:

"A Bayesian network is a probabilistic graphical model which represents a

set of variables and their conditional dependencies using a directed
acyclic graph."

It is also called a Bayes network, belief network, decision network,

or Bayesian model.

Bayesian networks are probabilistic, because these networks are built

from a probability distribution, and also use probability theory for
prediction and anomaly detection.

Real world applications are probabilistic in nature, and to represent the

relationship between multiple events, we need a Bayesian network. It can
also be used in various tasks including prediction, anomaly detection,
diagnostics, automated insight, reasoning, time series prediction,
and decision making under uncertainty.

Bayesian Network can be used for building models from data and experts
opinions, and it consists of two parts:

o Directed Acyclic Graph

o Table of conditional probabilities.

The generalized form of Bayesian network that represents and solve

decision problems under uncertain knowledge is known as an Influence
diagram.

A Bayesian network graph is made up of nodes and Arcs (directed

links), where:
 o Each node corresponds to the random variables, and a variable can
be continuous or discrete.
o Arc or directed arrows represent the causal relationship or
conditional probabilities between random variables. These directed
links or arrows connect the pair of nodes in the graph.
These links represent that one node directly influence the other
node, and if there is no directed link that means that nodes are
independent with each other
o In the above diagram, A, B, C, and D are random
variables represented by the nodes of the network
graph.
o If we are considering node B, which is connected with
node A by a directed arrow, then node A is called the
parent of Node B.
o Node C is independent of node A.

Note: The Bayesian network graph does not contain any cyclic graph. Hence, it is known
as a directed acyclic graph or DAG.

The Bayesian network has mainly two components:

o Causal Component
o Actual numbers

Each node in the Bayesian network has condition probability

distribution P(Xi |Parent(Xi) ), which determines the effect of the parent
on that node.

Bayesian network is based on Joint probability distribution and conditional

probability. So let's first understand the joint probability distribution:

Joint probability distribution:

If we have variables x1, x2, x3,....., xn, then the probabilities of a different
combination of x1, x2, x3.. xn, are known as Joint probability distribution.

P[x1, x2, x3,....., xn], it can be written as the following way in terms of the
joint probability distribution.

= P[x1| x2, x3,....., xn]P[x2, x3,....., xn]

= P[x1| x2, x3,....., xn]P[x2|x3,....., xn]....P[xn-1|xn]P[xn].

In general for each variable Xi, we can write the equation as:

P(Xi|Xi-1,........., X1) = P(Xi |Parents(Xi ))

Explanation of Bayesian network:

Let's understand the Bayesian network through an example by creating a
directed acyclic graph:

Example: Harry installed a new burglar alarm at his home to detect

burglary. The alarm reliably responds at detecting a burglary but also
responds for minor earthquakes. Harry has two neighbors David and
Sophia, who have taken a responsibility to inform Harry at work when they
hear the alarm. David always calls Harry when he hears the alarm, but
sometimes he got confused with the phone ringing and calls at that time
too. On the other hand, Sophia likes to listen to high music, so sometimes
she misses to hear the alarm. Here we would like to compute the
probability of Burglary Alarm.

Problem:

Calculate the probability that alarm has sounded, but there is

neither a burglary, nor an earthquake occurred, and David and
Sophia both called the Harry.

Solution:

o The Bayesian network for the above problem is given below. The
network structure is showing that burglary and earthquake is the
parent node of the alarm and directly affecting the probability of
alarm's going off, but David and Sophia's calls depend on alarm
probability.
o The network is representing that our assumptions do not directly
perceive the burglary and also do not notice the minor earthquake,
and they also not confer before calling.
 o The conditional distributions for each node are given as conditional
probabilities table or CPT.
o Each row in the CPT must be sum to 1 because all the entries in the
table represent an exhaustive set of cases for the variable.
o In CPT, a boolean variable with k boolean parents contains
2K probabilities. Hence, if there are two parents, then CPT will
contain 4 probability values

List of all events occurring in this network:

o Burglary (B)
o Earthquake(E)
o Alarm(A)
o David Calls(D)
o Sophia calls(S)

We can write the events of problem statement in the form of

probability: P[D, S, A, B, E], can rewrite the above probability statement
using joint probability distribution:

P[D, S, A, B, E]= P[D | S, A, B, E]. P[S, A, B, E]

=P[D | S, A, B, E]. P[S | A, B, E]. P[A, B, E]

= P [D| A]. P [ S| A, B, E]. P[ A, B, E]

= P[D | A]. P[ S | A]. P[A| B, E]. P[B, E]

= P[D | A ]. P[S | A]. P[A| B, E]. P[B |E]. P[E]

Let's take the observed probability for the Burglary and earthquake
component:

P(B= True) = 0.002, which is the probability of burglary.

P(B= False)= 0.998, which is the probability of no burglary.

P(E= True)= 0.001, which is the probability of a minor earthquake

P(E= False)= 0.999, Which is the probability that an earthquake not

occurred.

We can provide the conditional probabilities as per the below tables:

Conditional probability table for Alarm A:

The Conditional probability of Alarm A depends on Burglar and

earthquake:

B E P(A= True) P(A= False)

True True 0.94 0.06

True False 0.95 0.04

False True 0.31 0.69

False False 0.001 0.999

Conditional probability table for David Calls:

The Conditional probability of David that he will call depends on the

probability of Alarm.

A P(D= True) P(D= False)

True 0.91 0.09

False 0.05 0.95

Conditional probability table for Sophia Calls:

The Conditional probability of Sophia that she calls is depending on its

Parent Node "Alarm."

A P(S= True) P(S= False)

True 0.75 0.25

False 0.02 0.98

From the formula of joint distribution, we can write the problem statement
in the form of probability distribution:

P(S, D, A, ¬B, ¬E) = P (S|A) *P (D|A)*P (A|¬B ^ ¬E) *P (¬B) *P

(¬E).

= 0.75* 0.91* 0.001* 0.998*0.999

= 0.00068045.

Hence, a Bayesian network can answer any query about the

domain by using Joint distribution.

The semantics of Bayesian Network:

There are two ways to understand the semantics of the Bayesian network,
which is given below:

1. To understand the network as the representation of the Joint

probability distribution.

It is helpful to understand how to construct the network.

2. To understand the network as an encoding of a collection of
conditional independence statements.

It is helpful in designing inference procedure.

# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-

"""EXp13.ipynb

!pip install pgmpy

import numpy as np

import pandas as pd

import csv

from pgmpy.estimators import MaximumLikelihoodEstimator

from pgmpy.models import BayesianModel

from pgmpy.inference import VariableElimination

#read Cleveland Heart Disease data

heartDisease = pd.read_csv('/content/data7_heart.csv')

heartDisease

heartDisease = heartDisease.replace('?',np.nan)

heartDisease

#display the data

print('Sample instances from the dataset are given below')

print(heartDisease.head())

#display the Attributes names and datatyes

print('\n Attributes and datatypes')

print(heartDisease.dtypes)

#Creat Model- Bayesian Network

model = BayesianModel([('age','heartdisease'),('sex','heartdisease'),(

'exang','heartdisease'),('cp','heartdisease'),('heartdisease',

'restecg'),('heartdisease','chol')])

#Learning CPDs using Maximum Likelihood Estimators

print('\n Learning CPD using Maximum likelihood estimators')

model.fit(heartDisease,estimator=MaximumLikelihoodEstimator)

# Inferencing with Bayesian Network

print('\n Inferencing with Bayesian Network:')

HeartDiseasetest_infer = VariableElimination(model)

#computing the Probability of HeartDisease given restecg

print('\n 1.Probability of HeartDisease given evidence=restecg :1')

q1=HeartDiseasetest_infer.query(variables=['heartdisease'],evidence={'r
estecg':1})

print(q1)

#computing the Probability of HeartDisease given cp

print('\n 2.Probability of HeartDisease given evidence= cp:2 ')

q2=HeartDiseasetest_infer.query(variables=['heartdisease'],evidence={'c
p':2})

print(q2)