402 CHAPTER 8.

MULTIPLE AND LOGISTIC REGRESSION

8.5.4 Introduction to logistic regression

8.15 Possum classification, Part I. The common brushtail possum of the Australia region is a
bit cuter than its distant cousin, the American opossum (see Figure 7.5 on page 334). We consider
104 brushtail possums from two regions in Australia, where the possums may be considered a
random sample from the population. The first region is Victoria, which is in the eastern half of
Australia and traverses the southern coast. The second region consists of New South Wales and
Queensland, which make up eastern and northeastern Australia.
We use logistic regression to di↵erentiate between possums in these two regions. The outcome
variable, called population, takes value 1 when a possum is from Victoria and 0 when it is from
New South Wales or Queensland. We consider five predictors: sex male (an indicator for a
possum being male), head length, skull width, total length, and tail length. Each variable
is summarized in a histogram. The full logistic regression model and a reduced model after variable
selection are summarized in the table.

60 15 15
Frequency

Frequency

Frequency
40 10 10

20 5 5

0 0 0
0 1 85 90 95 100 50 55 60 65
(Female) (Male)
head_length (in mm) skull_width (in mm)
sex_male
60
20
Frequency

Frequency

Frequency
10 15 40
10
5 20
5

0 0 0
75 80 85 90 95 32 34 36 38 40 42 0 1
(Not Victoria) (Victoria)
total_length (in cm) tail_length (in cm)
population

Full Model Reduced Model

Estimate SE Z Pr(>|Z|) Estimate SE Z Pr(>|Z|)
(Intercept) 39.2349 11.5368 3.40 0.0007 33.5095 9.9053 3.38 0.0007
sex male -1.2376 0.6662 -1.86 0.0632 -1.4207 0.6457 -2.20 0.0278
head length -0.1601 0.1386 -1.16 0.2480
skull width -0.2012 0.1327 -1.52 0.1294 -0.2787 0.1226 -2.27 0.0231
total length 0.6488 0.1531 4.24 0.0000 0.5687 0.1322 4.30 0.0000
tail length -1.8708 0.3741 -5.00 0.0000 -1.8057 0.3599 -5.02 0.0000

(a) Examine each of the predictors. Are there any outliers that are likely to have a very large
influence on the logistic regression model?
(b) The summary table for the full model indicates that at least one variable should be eliminated
when using the p-value approach for variable selection: head length. The second component
of the table summarizes the reduced model following variable selection. Explain why the
remaining estimates change between the two models.
8.5. EXERCISES 403

8.16 Challenger disaster, Part I. On January 28, 1986, a routine launch was anticipated for
the Challenger space shuttle. Seventy-three seconds into the flight, disaster happened: the shuttle
broke apart, killing all seven crew members on board. An investigation into the cause of the
disaster focused on a critical seal called an O-ring, and it is believed that damage to these O-rings
during a shuttle launch may be related to the ambient temperature during the launch. The table
below summarizes observational data on O-rings for 23 shuttle missions, where the mission order
is based on the temperature at the time of the launch. Temp gives the temperature in Fahrenheit,
Damaged represents the number of damaged O-rings, and Undamaged represents the number of
O-rings that were not damaged.

Shuttle Mission 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Temperature 53 57 58 63 66 67 67 67 68 69 70 70
Damaged 5 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Undamaged 1 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6

Shuttle Mission 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Temperature 70 70 72 73 75 75 76 76 78 79 81
Damaged 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Undamaged 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6

(a) Each column of the table above represents a di↵erent shuttle mission. Examine these data
and describe what you observe with respect to the relationship between temperatures and
damaged O-rings.
(b) Failures have been coded as 1 for a damaged O-ring and 0 for an undamaged O-ring, and
a logistic regression model was fit to these data. A summary of this model is given below.
Describe the key components of this summary table in words.
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept) 11.6630 3.2963 3.54 0.0004
Temperature -0.2162 0.0532 -4.07 0.0000
(c) Write out the logistic model using the point estimates of the model parameters.
(d) Based on the model, do you think concerns regarding O-rings are justified? Explain.

8.17 Possum classification, Part II. A logistic regression model was proposed for classifying
common brushtail possums into their two regions in Exercise 8.15. The outcome variable took
value 1 if the possum was from Victoria and 0 otherwise.

Estimate SE Z Pr(>|Z|)
(Intercept) 33.5095 9.9053 3.38 0.0007
sex male -1.4207 0.6457 -2.20 0.0278
skull width -0.2787 0.1226 -2.27 0.0231
total length 0.5687 0.1322 4.30 0.0000
tail length -1.8057 0.3599 -5.02 0.0000

(a) Write out the form of the model. Also identify which of the variables are positively associated
when controlling for other variables.
(b) Suppose we see a brushtail possum at a zoo in the US, and a sign says the possum had been
captured in the wild in Australia, but it doesn’t say which part of Australia. However, the sign
does indicate that the possum is male, its skull is about 63 mm wide, its tail is 37 cm long,
and its total length is 83 cm. What is the reduced model’s computed probability that this
possum is from Victoria? How confident are you in the model’s accuracy of this probability
calculation?
404 CHAPTER 8. MULTIPLE AND LOGISTIC REGRESSION

8.18 Challenger disaster, Part II. Exercise 8.16 introduced us to O-rings that were identified
as a plausible explanation for the breakup of the Challenger space shuttle 73 seconds into takeo↵
in 1986. The investigation found that the ambient temperature at the time of the shuttle launch
was closely related to the damage of O-rings, which are a critical component of the shuttle. See
this earlier exercise if you would like to browse the original data.

1.0

Probability of damage 0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
50 55 60 65 70 75 80
Temperature (Fahrenheit)

(a) The data provided in the previous exercise are shown in the plot. The logistic model fit to
these data may be written as
✓ ◆
p̂
log = 11.6630 0.2162 ⇥ T emperature
1 p̂

where p̂ is the model-estimated probability that an O-ring will become damaged. Use the
model to calculate the probability that an O-ring will become damaged at each of the following
ambient temperatures: 51, 53, and 55 degrees Fahrenheit. The model-estimated probabilities
for several additional ambient temperatures are provided below, where subscripts indicate the
temperature:

p̂57 = 0.341 p̂59 = 0.251 p̂61 = 0.179 p̂63 = 0.124

p̂65 = 0.084 p̂67 = 0.056 p̂69 = 0.037 p̂71 = 0.024

(b) Add the model-estimated probabilities from part (a) on the plot, then connect these dots using
a smooth curve to represent the model-estimated probabilities.
(c) Describe any concerns you may have regarding applying logistic regression in this application,
and note any assumptions that are required to accept the model’s validity.