Chapter 2 Revision

1. On his way to work Mr D buys newspaper A with probability 0.4, newspaper B with
probability 0.3, or no newspaper with probability 0.3. If he buys newspaper A he brings it
home in the evening with probability 0.4 and if he buys newspaper B he brings it home
with probability 0.6. His behaviour on a particular day is independent of his behaviour on
any other day.

a) He did not bring a newspaper home yesterday. What is the probability that he did not
buy one?

b) Given that he brought a newspaper home for the last two days, what is the probability
it was the same newspaper on both days?

c) What is the expected value of the number of newspapers he is going to bring home
during the next 10 days? What is its variance?

2. A chess player playing with white pieces will win any game with probability 0.4, draw with
probability 0.4 and lose with probability 0.2. The same probabilities when he plays with
black pieces are 0.2, 0.5 and 0.3. Before each game a fair coin is tossed to decide whether
she will play with the black pieces or the white pieces. Thus the probability she plays with
the white pieces is 0.5.

a) Given that she won her last game what is the probability she was playing with the white
pieces?

b) Given that she did not lose either of her last two games, what is the probability she was
playing with the same colour of pieces in both games?

c) Let N denote the number of wins she will score in the next 10 games. Calculate E(N)
and Var(N).

3. X is a random variable with expected value zero and P(X = 2) = 0.1 and P(X = 5) = 0.1. X
takes just one other value besides 2 and 5.
a) What is the probability that X is negative?
b) What is the other value that X takes?
c) What is the variance of X?

4. If W is a Poisson random variable with mean 2, what is P(W>3W>1)?

5. If
  3.
  2,
 4,
 7,
 10, are all equally likely values for X, find

     1   2| is even.

6. X is a random variable with P(X = 0) = 0.1, P(X = 1) = 0.3, P(X = 2) = 0.4. X can also
take the value of 3, but no other values. What is E(X2)?

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S. Kumaresan
7. If is binomially distributed with 6 trials and the probability of success is ¼ for each attempt,
what is the probability of (a) exactly 4 successes (b) at least one success?

8. If the probability I get a lift to work on any morning is 0.6, what is the probability that in a
working week of five days I will get a lift only twice?

9. When a consignment of pens arrive at a retailer, ten of them are tested. The whole batch is
returned to the wholesaler if more than one of those selected is found to be faulty. What is
the probability that the consignment will be accepted if 2% of the pens are faulty?

10. Suppose X denotes the result from rolling a single fair die.
Find the expected value of (X – 3)2.

11. Suppose that a random system of police patrol is devised so that a patrol officer may visit
a given beat location X = 0, 1, 2, 3,...times per half-hour period, with each location being
visited an average of once per time period. Assume that X possesses, approximately, a
Poisson probability distribution. Calculate the probability that the patrol officer will miss a
given location during a half-hour period. What is the probability that it will be visited once?
Twice? At least once? Use e = 2.718.

12. Find the mean and variance of a discrete random variable ~#$%&1, $.

13. Find the mean and variance of a discrete random variable ~'%$ $, (.

14. Find the mean and variance of a discrete random variable ~)%*+.

15.What is the probability of rolling two sixes and three nonsixes in 5 independent rolls of a
fair die?

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S. Kumaresan
 Solutions to Revision Problems

1.
Let A and B be the events of Dr. D buying newspaper A and B respectively,
Let N be the event of Dr. D not buying any newspaper.
Let H be the event of Dr. D bringing newspaper home.

Given that, P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.3 and P(N) = 0.3, P(H A) = 0.4, P(H B) = 0.6.

a) To find P(N HC)

, ∩ - .  ,- . |,

,|- .   
- .  - . 

,- . |,

0- . |0 1 '- . |' 1 ,- . |,

0.31

0.41  0.4  0.31  0.6 1 0.31

0.3 0.3 5
  
0.24 1 0.12 1 0.3 0.66 11

b) To find [P(A H)]2 + [P(B H)]2

0 ∩ - 0-|0
0|-  
- 0-|0 1 '-|'

0.40.4 0.16 0.16 8

   
0.40.4 1 0.30.6 0.16 1 0.18 0.34 17

8 9
'|-  1  0|-  1    6%$7 ,|-  0 
17 17

8  9  145
0|- 1 '|- 8 9 18 9 
17 17 289

c) P(H) = 0.34

Expected number of newspapers Mr. D is going to bring home during next 10 days
= np = 10 × 0.34 = 3.4

Variance = np(1 – p) = 10 × 0.34 × (1 – 0.34) = 2.244

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S. Kumaresan
2.
Let W and B be the events of the player playing with white pieces and black pieces respectively.
Let S be the event of the player winning, L be the event of the player losing and D be the event
of game ending in a draw.

Given that,
P(W) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.5,
P(S W) = 0.4, P(L W) = 0.2, P(D W) = 0.4.
P(S B) = 0.2, P(L B) = 0.3, P(D W) = 0.5

: ∩ 6 : ∩ 6
 :|6  
6 : ∩ 6 1 ' ∩ 6

:6|: 0.50.4 2
  
:6|: 1 '6|' 0.50.4 1 0.50.2 3

 :|;<  1 '|;< 

<
: ∩ ;<  : ∩ ;< 
:|;  
;<  : ∩ ;<  1 ' ∩ ;< 

:;< |: 0.50.8 40 8

 < |: < |'  0.50.8  
:; 1 '; 1 0.50.7 75 15

8 7
'|;<   1  :|;<   1  
15 15

8  7  64 49 113
:|;<  1 '|;<  8 9 18 9  1   0.5022
15 15 225 225 225

 6  : ∩ 6 1 ' ∩ 6  0.50.4 1 0.50.2  0.3

;7= (  6  0.3

Given that N is the number of wins.

,  $(  10 > 0.3  3

?@,  $(1  (  10 > 0.3 > 0.7  2.1

3.
Let the other possible value of X be a.

For a probability distribution, P(X = 2) + P(X = 5) + P(X = a) = 1

 0.1 + 0.1 + P(X = a) = 1

 P(X = a) = 0.8.

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S. Kumaresan
Also given that, E(X) = 0  2(0.1) + 5(0.1) + a(0.8) = 0

 a = -7/8 = -0.875

(a) P(X < 0) = P(X = -0.875) = 0.8

(b) The other value that X can take is -0.875
(c) Var(X) = E(X2) – [E(X)]2 = 22(0.1) + 52(0.1) + (-0.875)2(0.8) – 02 = 3.5125

4.
: A 3 ∩ : A 1 : A 3 1  : B 3
: A 3|: A 1    
: A 1 : A 1 1  : B 1

1  : B 3 1  0.8571
   0.2406
1  : B 1 1  0.4060

5.

x 3 2 4 7 10
p(x) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

(a) E(X) = 3(0.2) + 2(0.2) + 4(0.2) + 7(0.2) + 10(0.2) = 26(0.2) = 5.2

(b) E[X(X – 1)] = E(X2 – X) = E(X2) – E(X)

= 32(0.2) + 22(0.2) + 42(0.2) + 72(0.2) + 102(0.2) – 5.2 = 178(0.2) - 5.2 = 30.4

  2 ∩  %* 7C7$   2

  2| is even  
 %* 7C7$  %* 7C7$

  2 0.2 1
 
  2 1   4 1   10 0.2 1 0.2 1 0.2 3

6.

P(X = 0) = 0.1, P(X = 1) = 0.3, P(X = 2) = 0.4. As X = 3 is the only other value,

P(X = 3 ) = 1 – (0.1 + 0.3 + 0.4) = 0.2

E(X2) = 02(0.1) + 12(0.3) + 22(0.4) + 32(0.2) = 3.7

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S. Kumaresan
7.

Given that X ~ Bin(6, ¼), where X is the number of successes.

(a) P(X = 4) = 6C4 (1/4)4(3/4)6-4 = 0.033

(b) P(at least one success) = P(X ≥ 1) = 1 – P(X = 0)

= 1 - 6C0 (1/4)0(3/4)6-0 = 1 - 0.178 = 0.822

8.

The random variable X is the number of days I get a lift in a week of 5 days,
where X ~ Bin(5, 0.6).

P(getting a lift exactly on 2 days) = 5C2 (0.6)2(0.4)3 = 0.2304

9.

The random variable X is the number of faulty items in a sample of ten items tested,
where X ~ Bin(10, 0.02).

The consignment will be accepted if X ≤ 1.

P(the consignment will be accepted) = P (X ≤ 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)

= 10C0 (0.02)0(0.98)10 + 10C1 (0.02)1(0.98)9 = 0.9838

10.

The probability distribution when a single die is rolled is as follows:

Number on the die, x 1 2 3 4 5 6

P(X = x) 1 1 1 1 1 1
6 6 6 6 6 6

  3  D
 3 (


∀F

1 1 1 1 1
 1  3 > 1 2  3 > 1 3  3 > 1 4  3 > 1 5  3 >
6 6 6 6 6

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S. Kumaresan
 1
16  3 >
6
4 1 0 1 4 9 19
 1 1 1 1 1 
6 6 6 6 6 6 6

11.

The number of times the patrol officer visits the given location in a half-an-hour period, X is
Poisson distributed with mean  = 1. X ~ Pois(1).

P( the patrol officer will miss a given location during a half-hour period) =

7 G 1H
  0   2.718G  0.3679
0!
P( the patrol officer will visit a given location during a half-hour period once) =

7 G 1
  1   2.718G  0.3679
1!
P( the patrol officer will visit a given location during a half-hour period twice) =

7 G 1 2.718G
  2    0.1840
2! 2
P( the location is visited at least once during a half-hour period) =

 J 1  1    0  1  0.3679  0.6321

12.
The probability mass function of ~#$%&1, $ is p(x) = 1/n for n = 1,.2,.3,…, n.
K

  D
 

FL

1 1 1 1
1> 1 2 > 1 3 > 1 ⋯1 $ >
$ $ $ $
1
 1 1 2 1 3 1 ⋯ 1 $
$

1 $$ 1 1
 >
$ 2
$11

2

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S. Kumaresan
 $11
∴ O7$,  
2

?@      

K

    D
  

FL
1 1 1 1
 1 > 1 2 > 1 3 > 1 ⋯ 1 $ >

$ $ $ $
1 
 1 1 2 1 3 1 ⋯ 1 3 
$

1 $$ 1 12$ 1 1
 >
$ 6

$ 1 12$ 1 1

6

?@      

$ 1 12$ 1 1 $11 
 8 9
6 2

$ 1 12$ 1 1 $ 1 1
 
6 4

2$ 1 1 $ 1 1
 $ 1 1 P  Q
6 4

42$ 1 1  6$ 1 1
 $ 1 1 P Q
24

8$ 1 4  6$  6
 $ 1 1 R S
24

2$  2
 $ 1 1 R S
24

$1
 $ 1 1 R S
12

$  1
∴ ?@ 
12

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S. Kumaresan
13.
K K
$
  D
 
  D
T U ( F 1  (KGF


FLH FLH

K
$!
 01D
( F 1  (KGF
$ 
!
!
FL

K
$$  1!
D ( F 1  (KGF
$ 
! 
 1!
FL

K
$  1!
 $( D ( FG 1  (KGF
$ 
! 
 1!
FL

Let V 
 1.

When x = 1, y = 0; when x = n, y = n – 1.
KG
$  1!
∴   $( D ( W 1  (KGWG
$  V  1! V!
WLH

Replace n – 1 in the summation terms by m;

Y
X!
∴   $( D ( W 1  (YGW
X  V! V!
WLH

Y
X
  $( D 8 9 ( W 1  (YGW
V
WLH

  $(Z  0 1 Z  1 1 ⋯ 1 Z  X

∴   $(
Total probability = 1

To find the variance, we begin with   1.

K

  1  D

 1 


FLH
K

 0 >   0 1 0 >   1 1 D

 1 


FL
K
$
 D

 1 T U ( F 1  (KGF


FL

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S. Kumaresan
 K
$!
 D

 1 ( F 1  (KGF
$ 
!
!
FL

K
$$  1$  2!
 D

 1 ( F 1  (KGF
$ 
!

 1
 2!
FL

K
$  2!
 $$  1( D 
( FG 1  (KGF
$ 
! 
 2!
FL

Let y = x – 2;  When x = 2, y = 0 and when x = n, y = n – 2.

KG
$  2!
∴   1  $$  1( D 
( W 1  (KGWG
$  V  2! V!
WLH

Replacing n – 2 in the summation by m, we get,

Y
X!
  1  $$  1( D 
( W 1  (YGW
X  V! V!
WLH

 $$  1( Z  0 1 Z  1 1 ⋯ 1 Z  X

Z  0 1 Z  1 1 ⋯ 1 Z  X  1

∴   1  $$  1(

      $ (  $(

    $ (  $( 1   $ (  $( 1 $(


?@      [\  $ (  $( 1 $(  $ (

∴ ?@  $(  $(  $(1  (

14.
] ]
7 G  F
O7$ )&     D
 
  D


!
FLH FLH

]
7 G  H 7 G  F
0> 1D

0!

 1!
FL

10
S. Kumaresan
Let y = x - 1.
] ]
7 G W^ 7 G  W
∴   D  D
V! V!
WLH WLH

 Z  0 1 Z  1 1 Z  2 1 ⋯ ∞

Z  0 1 Z  1 1 Z  2 1 ⋯ ∞  1

∴   

Consider   1

] ]
7 G  F
[  1\  D

 1 
  D

 1

!
FLH FLH

]
7 G  H 7 G  7 G  F
0> 1 11  1 > 1 D

 1
0! 1!

 1
 2!
FL

]
7 G  F
D

 2!
FL

By taking y = x - 2, we get,
] ]
7 G W^ 7 G  W
[  1\  D   D
V! V!
WLH WLH

 2 Z  0 1 Z  1 1 Z  2 1 ⋯ ∞

Z  0 1 Z  1 1 Z  2 1 ⋯ ∞  1

∴   1  2

      2

    2 1   2 1 

?@      

  1   

∴ ?@  +

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S. Kumaresan
`a.

Let X be the number of sixes when a die is rolled 5 times. X  Bin(5, 1/6).

  
  2  [\ T U T1  U  0.1608
b b

Prepared by S. Kumar (Kumaresan Subramaniam)

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S. Kumaresan