Report created on 22/ 3/2025 at 16:06

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLIKE program version 5.00
FLIKE file version 3.00

Data file: C:\Users\zzx\Desktop\a1.fld

Title: 2

Input Data for Flood Frequency Analysis for Model: Log Pearson III

Measurement Error Data

Group Error coefficient Lower bound
of variation rated flow
------------------------------------------------
1 0.000 0.00

Gauged Annual Maximum Discharge Data

Obs Discharge Year Incremental Error coefficient AEP plot AEP
error zone of variation position 1 in Y yrs
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1 50.76 1971 1 0.000 0.04887 4.22
2 42.38 1972 1 0.000 0.63158 3.64
3 104.38 1973 1 0.000 0.95113 20.46
4 15.16 1974 1 0.000 0.48120 1.80
5 93.58 1975 1 0.000 0.53759 9.50
6 5.14 1976 1 0.000 0.91353 1.31
7 53.27 1977 1 0.000 0.76316 5.02
8 62.49 1978 1 0.000 0.23684 5.54
9 3.72 1979 1 0.000 0.03008 1.22
10 0.11 1980 1 0.000 0.85714 1.03
11 8.91 1981 1 0.000 0.87594 1.45
12 3.50 1982 1 0.000 0.74436 1.19
13 80.13 1983 1 0.000 0.98872 8.06
14 53.19 1984 1 0.000 0.25564 4.59
15 27.39 1985 1 0.000 0.96992 2.35
16 20.52 1986 1 0.000 0.46241 2.00
17 15.11 1987 1 0.000 0.36842 1.74
18 28.09 1988 1 0.000 0.38722 2.71
19 19.32 1989 1 0.000 0.01128 1.93
20 115.25 1990 1 0.000 0.66917 33.25
21 6.95 1991 1 0.000 0.12406 1.38
22 9.71 1992 1 0.000 0.44361 1.49
23 5.08 1993 1 0.000 0.72556 1.28
24 6.87 1994 1 0.000 0.14286 1.34
25 100.18 1995 1 0.000 0.42481 11.57
26 12.91 1996 1 0.000 0.31203 1.63
27 14.40 1997 1 0.000 0.70677 1.68
28 100.45 1998 1 0.000 0.65038 14.78
29 33.88 1999 1 0.000 0.34962 3.41
30 27.62 2000 1 0.000 0.93233 2.46
31 24.70 2001 1 0.000 0.68797 2.16
32 8.25 2002 1 0.000 0.50000 1.41
33 29.95 2003 1 0.000 0.51880 3.02
34 33.24 2004 1 0.000 0.21805 3.20
35 15.44 2005 1 0.000 0.16165 1.86
36 4.08 2006 1 0.000 0.59398 1.25
 37 22.86 2007 1 0.000 0.80075 2.08
38 1.41 2008 1 0.000 0.40602 1.12
39 0.13 2009 1 0.000 0.61278 1.05
40 49.79 2010 1 0.000 0.55639 3.91
41 77.86 2011 1 0.000 0.89474 7.00
42 12.81 2012 1 0.000 0.57519 1.58
43 0.47 2013 1 0.000 0.33083 1.07
44 0.55 2014 1 0.000 0.83835 1.09
45 11.69 2015 1 0.000 0.78195 1.54
46 26.63 2016 1 0.000 0.06767 2.25
47 27.71 2017 1 0.000 0.08647 2.58
48 0.00 2018 1 0.000 0.29323 1.01
49 2.54 2019 1 0.000 0.18045 1.14
50 3.49 2020 1 0.000 0.19925 1.17
51 136.72 2021 1 0.000 0.27444 88.67
52 74.99 2022 1 0.000 0.81955 6.19
53 29.89 2023 1 0.000 0.10526 2.86

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Calibration Results

Data file: C:\Users\zzx\Desktop\a1.fld

Flood model: Log Pearson III

>>> Fitting algorithm: Global probabilistic search

Parameter Lower bound Upper bound

-------------------------------------
1 -7.44019 12.52256
2 -1.61130 2.99387
3 -5.00000 5.00000
>>> PENALTIES were added to log-posterior density <<<

Incremental error model: Log-normal

Solution PROBABLY found in 5159 iterations

Maximized log-posterior density = -231.894

No Parameter Initial value Most probable value

---------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Mean (loge flow) 2.54119 2.54117
2 loge [Std dev (loge flow)] 0.69128 0.64091
3 Skew (loge flow) -0.00069 -1.53279

--------------------------------------------------
Zero flow threshold: 0.0000
Number of gauged flows at or below flow threshold = 0

Summary of Posterior Moments from Importance Sampling

No Mean Std dev Correlation
------------------------------------------------
 1 2.53416 0.24473 1.000
2 0.62161 0.12465 -0.662 1.000
3 -1.36718 0.21410 -0.065 -0.528 1.000
---------------------------------------
Note: Posterior expected parameters are the most
accurate in the mean-squared-error sense.
They should be used in preference to the most probable parameters

Upper bound = 192.079

Recurrence Exp parameter Monte Carlo 90% quantile Mean(log10(q))

Stdev(log10(q))
interval quantile probability limits
yrs

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
1.010 0.03 0.00 0.1 -1.5605
0.4675
1.100 0.89 0.33 2.0 -0.0556
0.2301
1.250 3.36 1.72 5.9 0.5249
0.1605
1.500 8.48 5.15 13.3 0.9294
0.1241
1.750 13.83 8.94 20.8 1.1429
0.1093
2.000 19.00 12.72 27.8 1.2814
0.1010
3.000 36.48 26.49 50.5 1.5651
0.0859
5.000 59.60 45.25 79.4 1.7782
0.0742
10.000 88.88 70.41 114.1 1.9515
0.0644
20.000 113.56 92.17 144.8 2.0582
0.0616
50.000 138.60 114.69 186.2 2.1458
0.0670
100.000 152.54 127.04 213.3 2.1887
0.0750
200.000 163.02 135.94 242.8 2.2191
0.0840
500.000 172.87 143.23 272.1 2.2469
0.0958
1000.000 178.09 146.67 299.2 2.2617
0.1041
2000.000 181.91 149.19 317.7 2.2728
0.1117
5000.000 185.42 150.89 337.8 2.2834
0.1206
10000.000 187.25 151.55 351.6 2.2893
0.1265
20000.000 188.58 152.04 363.3 2.2940
0.1317
50000.000 189.79 152.33 374.9 2.2986
0.1378
100000.000 190.43 152.46 388.6 2.3013
0.1418

Expected Probability Flood based on

Monte Carlo samples = 20000
Probability weight = 1.000
Scalng factor = 2.500

Flood Expected <----------ARI------------>

magnitude probability yrs 95% limits
---------------------------------------------------------
0.03 0.01149 1.01 1.01 1.01
0.89 0.09228 1.10 1.10 1.10
3.36 0.20005 1.25 1.25 1.25
8.48 0.33217 1.50 1.50 1.50
13.83 0.42661 1.74 1.74 1.75
19.00 0.49742 1.99 1.99 1.99
36.48 0.66253 2.96 2.96 2.97
59.60 0.79485 4.87 4.86 4.89
88.88 0.89504 9.53 9.48 9.57
113.56 0.94608 18.55 18.43 18.67
138.60 0.97728 44.02 43.54 44.51
152.54 0.98748 79.86 78.55 81.21
163.02 0.99186 122.91 120.32 125.61
172.87 0.99437 177.48 172.98 182.22
178.09 0.99530 212.77 206.90 218.98
181.91 0.99586 241.75 234.68 249.25
185.42 0.99631 270.99 262.66 279.87
187.25 0.99652 287.27 278.21 296.94
188.58 0.99666 299.57 289.95 309.85
189.79 0.99679 311.15 300.99 322.02
190.43 0.99685 317.29 306.84 328.47