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SL Paper 2
A water container is made in the shape of a cylinder with internal height h cm and internal base radius r cm.

The water container has no top. The inner surfaces of the container are to be coated with a water-resistant material.
The volume of the water container is 0.5 m 3.

The water container is designed so that the area to be coated is minimized.

One can of water-resistant material coats a surface area of 2000 cm 2.

Write down a formula for A, the surface area to be coated.

[2]
a.

Express this volume in cm 3.

[1]
b.

Write down, in terms of r and h, an equation for the volume of this water container.

[1]
c.
1 000 000
Show that A = πr 2 + .
r

[2]
d.
dA
Find .
dr

[3]
e.

Using your answer to part (e), find the value of r which minimizes A.

[3]
f.

Find the value of this minimum area.

[2]
g.

Find the least number of cans of water-resistant material that will coat the area in part (g).

[3]
h.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

(A = ) πr 2 + 2πrh (A1)(A1)

Note: Award (A1) for either πr 2 OR 2πrh seen. Award (A1) for two correct terms added together.

[2 marks]

a.

500 000 (A1)

Notes: Units not required.

[1 mark]

b.

500 000 = πr 2h (A1)(ft)

Notes: Award (A1)(ft) for πr 2h equating to their part (b).

Do not accept unless V = πr 2h is explicitly defined as their part (b).

[1 mark]

c.

A = πr 2 + 2πr
( ) 500 000
πr 2
(A1)(ft)(M1)

500 000
Note: Award (A1)(ft) for their seen.
πr 2

500 000
Award (M1) for correctly substituting only into a correct part (a).
πr 2

500 000
Award (A1)(ft)(M1) for rearranging part (c) to πrh = and substituting for πrh in expression for A.
r

1 000 000
A = πr 2 + (AG)
r

1 000 000
Notes: The conclusion, A = πr 2 + , must be consistent with their working seen for the (A1) to be awarded.
r

Accept 10 6 as equivalent to 1 000 000.

[2 marks]

d.

1 000 000
2πr − (A1)(A1)(A1)
r2

1
Note: Award (A1) for 2πr, (A1) for or r − 2, (A1) for − 1 000 000.
r2

[3 marks]

e.
1 000 000
2πr − =0 (M1)
r2

Note: Award (M1) for equating their part (e) to zero.

3
1 000 000 1 000 000
r3 =
2π
OR r =
√ 2π
(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for isolating r.

OR
 sketch of derivative function (M1)

with its zero indicated (M1)

(r = ) 54.2 (cm) (54.1926…) (A1)(ft)(G2)

[3 marks]

f.
1 000 000
π(54.1926…) 2 + (M1)
( 54.1926 … )

Note: Award (M1) for correct substitution of their part (f) into the given equation.

= 27 700 (cm 2) (27 679.0…) (A1)(ft)(G2)

[2 marks]

g.

27 679.0 …
(M1)
2000

Note: Award (M1) for dividing their part (g) by 2000.

= 13.8395… (A1)(ft)

Notes: Follow through from part (g).

14 (cans) (A1)(ft)(G3)

Notes: Final (A1) awarded for rounding up their 13.8395… to the next integer.

[3 marks]

h.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.
[N/A]
e.
[N/A]
f.
[N/A]
g.
[N/A]
h.

The following table shows a probability distribution for the random variable X, where E(X) = 1.2.
A bag contains white and blue marbles, with at least three of each colour. Three marbles are drawn from the bag,
without replacement. The number of blue marbles drawn is given by the random variable X.

A game is played in which three marbles are drawn from the bag of ten marbles, without replacement. A player wins a
prize if three white marbles are drawn.

Find q.

[2]
a.i.

Find p.

[2]
a.ii.

Write down the probability of drawing three blue marbles.

[1]
b.i.
1
Explain why the probability of drawing three white marbles is .
6

[1]
b.ii.

The bag contains a total of ten marbles of which w are white. Find w.

[3]
b.iii.

Jill plays the game nine times. Find the probability that she wins exactly two prizes.

[2]
c.

Grant plays the game until he wins two prizes. Find the probability that he wins his second prize on his eighth
attempt.

[4]
d.

Markscheme
correct substitution into E(X) formula (A1)

eg 0(p) + 1(0.5) + 2(0.3) + 3(q) = 1.2

1
q= , 0.0333 A1 N2
30

[2 marks]

a.i.

evidence of summing probabilities to 1 (M1)

eg p + 0.5 + 0.3 + q = 1
1
p = , 0.167 A1 N2
6

[2 marks]

a.ii.
1
P (3 blue) = , 0.0333 A1 N1
30

[1 mark]

b.i.

valid reasoning R1
 eg P (3 white) = P(0 blue)
1
P(3 white) = AG N0
6

[1 mark]

b.ii.

valid method (M1)

w w−1 w−2 wC 3
eg P(3 white) = × × ,
10 9 8 10C 3

correct equation A1

w w−1 w−2 1 wC 3
eg × × = , = 0.167
10 9 8 6 10C 3

w=6 A1 N2

[3 marks]

b.iii.

valid approach (M1)

eg B(n, p), ()
n
r
p rq n − r, (0.167) 2(0.833) 7, ()
9
2

0.279081

0.279 A1 N2

[2 marks]

c.

recognizing one prize in first seven attempts (M1)

eg ( ) ( )( )
7
1
,
1 1 5 6
6 6

correct working (A1)

eg ( )( ) ( )
7
1
1 1 5 6
6 6
, 0.390714

correct approach (A1)

eg ( )( ) ( )
7
1
1 1 5 6
6 6
×
1
6

0.065119

0.0651 A1 N2

[4 marks]

d.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.i.
[N/A]
a.ii.
[N/A]
b.i.
[N/A]
b.ii.
[N/A]
 b.iii.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.

The following table shows the probability distribution of a discrete random variable X, where a ⩾ 0 and b ⩾ 0.

Show that b = 0.3 − a.

[1]
a.

Find the difference between the greatest possible expected value and the least possible expected value.

[6]
b.

Markscheme
correct approach A1

eg 0.2 + 0.5 + b + a = 1, 0.7 + a + b = 1

b = 0.3 − a AG N0

[1 mark]

a.

correct substitution into E(X) (A1)

eg 0.2 + 4 × 0.5 + a × b + (a + b − 0.5) × a, 0.2 + 2 + a × b − 0.2a

valid attempt to express E(X) in one variable M1

eg 0.2 + 4 × 0.5 + a × (0.3 − a) + (− 0.2) × a, 2.2 + 0.1a − a 2,

0.2 + 4 × 0.5 + (0.3 − b) × b + (− 0.2) × (0.3 − b), 2.14 + 0.5b − b 2

correct value of greatest E(X) (A1)

2.2025 (exact)

valid attempt to find least value (M1)

eg graph with minimum indicated, E(0) and E(0.3)

(0, 2.2) and (0.3, 2.14) if E(X) in terms of a

(0, 2.14) and (0.3, 2.2) if E(X) in terms of b

correct value of least E(X) (A1)

eg 2.14 (exact)

difference = 0.0625 (exact) A1 N2

[6 marks]

b.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
The time it takes Suzi to drive from home to work each morning is normally distributed with a mean of 35 minutes and a
standard deviation of σ minutes.

On 25 % of days, it takes Suzi longer than 40 minutes to drive to work.

Suzi will be late to work if it takes her longer than 45 minutes to drive to work. The time it takes to drive to work each
day is independent of any other day.

Suzi will work five days next week.

Suzi will work 22 days this month. She will receive a bonus if she is on time at least 20 of those days.

So far this month, she has worked 16 days and been on time 15 of those days.

Find the value of σ.

[4]
a.

On a randomly selected day, find the probability that Suzi’s drive to work will take longer than 45 minutes.

[2]
b.

Find the probability that she will be late to work at least one day next week.

[3]
c.

Given that Suzi will be late to work at least one day next week, find the probability that she will be late less than
three times.

[5]
d.

Find the probability that Suzi will receive a bonus.

[4]
e.

Markscheme
METHOD 1

(
T~N 35, σ 2 )
P(T > 40) = 0. 25 or P(T < 40) = 0. 75 (M1)

attempt to solve for σ graphically or numerically using the GDC (M1)

( )
graph of normal curve T~N 35, σ 2 for P(T > 40) and y = 0. 25 OR P(T < 40) and y = 0. 75
OR table of values for P(T < 40) or P(T > 40)

σ = 7. 413011…

σ = 7. 41 (min) A2

METHOD 2

(
T~N 35, σ 2 )
P(T > 40) = 0. 25 or P(T < 40) = 0. 75 (M1)

z = 0. 674489… (A1)

valid equation using their z-score (clearly identified as z-score and not a probability) (M1)
40 - 35
= 0. 674489… OR 5 = 0. 674489…σ
σ
7. 413011…

σ = 7. 41 (min) A1

[4 marks]

a.

P(T > 45) (M1)

= 0. 0886718…

= 0. 0887 A1

[2 marks]

b.

recognizing binomial probability (M1)

L~B(5, 0. 0886718…)

P(L ≥ 1) = 1 - P(L = 0) OR

P(L ≥ 1) = P(L = 1) + P(L = 2) + P(L = 3) + P(L = 4) + P(L = 5) (M1)

0. 371400…

P(L ≥ 1) = 0. 371 A1

[3 marks]

c.

recognizing conditional probability in context (M1)

finding {L < 3} ∩ {L ≥ 1} = {L = 1, L = 2} (may be seen in conditional probability) (A1)

P(L = 1) + P(L = 2) = 0. 36532… (may be seen in conditional probability) (A1)

0 . 36532 …
P(L < 3 L ≥ 1) = (A1)
0 . 37140 …

0. 983636…

0. 984 A1

[5 marks]

d.

METHOD 1

recognizing that Suzi can be late no more than once (in the remaining six days) (M1)

X~B(6, 0. 0886718…), where X is the number of days late (A1)

P(X ≤ 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) (M1)

= 0. 907294…

P(Suzi gets a bonus) = 0. 907 A1

Note: The first two marks may be awarded independently.

METHOD 2

recognizing that Suzi must be on time at least five times (of the remaining six days) (M1)
 X~B(6, 0. 911328…), where X is the number of days on time (A1)

P(X ≥ 5) = 1 - P(X ≤ 4) OR 1 - 0. 0927052… OR P(X = 5)+(X = 6) OR 0. 334434… + 0. 572860… (M1)

= 0. 907294…

P(Suzi gets a bonus) = 0. 907 A1

Note: The first two marks may be awarded independently.

[4 marks]

e.

Examiners report
In part (a) many candidates did not know to use inverse normal to find a z value. Some did find z, then rounded it to 3
sf and got an incorrect value for sigma.

Part (b) was mostly well done.

In (c) most recognised the binomial and handled 'at least one' correctly.

In (d) many recognised conditional probability, but most candidates were not able to find the intersection of the
events as P(1) + P(2).

In part (e), those candidates who did understand what to do often misunderstood that they needed to look at 1 or no
more lates and just considered one more late. Something similar happened to those who approached the question by
considering the times Suzi was on time.

This question was only correctly answered by a few, and students tended to perform either very well or very poorly.

a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.
[N/A]
e.

The following table shows values of ln x and ln y.

The relationship between ln x and ln y can be modelled by the regression equation ln y = a ln x + b.

Find the value of a and of b.

[3]
a.

Use the regression equation to estimate the value of y when x = 3.57.

[3]
b.

The relationship between x and y can be modelled using the formula y = kxn, where k ≠ 0 , n ≠ 0 , n ≠ 1.

By expressing ln y in terms of ln x, find the value of n and of k.

[7]
c.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

valid approach (M1)

eg one correct value

−0.453620, 6.14210

a = −0.454, b = 6.14 A1A1 N3

[3 marks]

a.

correct substitution (A1)

eg −0.454 ln 3.57 + 6.14

correct working (A1)

eg ln y = 5.56484

261.083 (260.409 from 3 sf)

y = 261, (y = 260 from 3sf) A1 N3

Note: If no working shown, award N1 for 5.56484.

If no working shown, award N2 for ln y = 5.56484.

[3 marks]

b.

METHOD 1

valid approach for expressing ln y in terms of ln x (M1)

( ) ( )
eg ln y = ln kx n , ln kx n = a ln x + b

correct application of addition rule for logs (A1)

eg ln k + ln x n( )
correct application of exponent rule for logs A1

eg ln k + n ln x

comparing one term with regression equation (check FT) (M1)

eg n = a, b = ln k

correct working for k (A1)

eg ln k = 6.14210, k = e 6.14210

465.030

n = − 0.454, k = 465 (464 from 3sf) A1A1 N2N2

METHOD 2

valid approach (M1)

eg e ln y = e a ln x + b

correct use of exponent laws for e a ln x + b (A1)

eg e a ln x × e b

correct application of exponent rule for a ln x (A1)

eg ln x a

correct equation in y A1
 eg y = x a × e b

comparing one term with equation of model (check FT) (M1)

eg k = e b, n = a

465.030

n = − 0.454, k = 465 (464 from 3sf) A1A1 N2N2

METHOD 3

valid approach for expressing ln y in terms of ln x (seen anywhere) (M1)

( ) ( )
eg ln y = ln kx n , ln kx n = a ln x + b

correct application of exponent rule for logs (seen anywhere) (A1)

( )
eg ln x a + b

correct working for b (seen anywhere) (A1)

( )
eg b = ln e b

correct application of addition rule for logs A1

( )
eg ln e bx a

comparing one term with equation of model (check FT) (M1)

eg k = e b, n = a

465.030

n = − 0.454, k = 465 (464 from 3sf) A1A1 N2N2

[7 marks]

c.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.

In a group of 35 students, some take art class (A) and some take music class (M). 5 of these students do not take either
class. This information is shown in the following Venn diagram.
One student from the group is chosen at random. Find the probability that

Write down the number of students in the group who take art class.

[2]
a.

the student does not take art class.

[2]
b.i.

the student takes either art class or music class, but not both.

[2]
b.ii.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

valid approach (M1)

(A ∩ M ) + (A ∩ M),
′ 17
35
, 11 + 6

number of students taking art class = 17 A1 N2

[2 marks]

a.

valid approach (M1)

13 + 5, 35 − 17, 18, 1 − P(A)

0.514285
18
P(A') = (exact), 0.514 A1 N2
35

[2 marks]

b.i.

valid approach (M1)

11 + 13, 35 − 6 − 5, 24

0.685714
24
P(A or M but not both) = (exact), 0.686 A1 N2
35

[2 marks]

b.ii.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.i.
[N/A]
b.ii.

The marks obtained by nine Mathematical Studies SL students in their projects (x) and their final IB examination scores
(y) were recorded. These data were used to determine whether the project mark is a good predictor of the examination
score. The results are shown in the table.

The equation of the regression line y on x is y = mx + c.

A tenth student, Jerome, obtained a project mark of 17.

Use your graphic display calculator to write down xˉ , the mean project mark.

[1]
a.i.

Use your graphic display calculator to write down yˉ , the mean examination score.

[1]
a.ii.

Use your graphic display calculator to write down r , Pearson’s product–moment correlation coefficient.

[2]
a.iii.

Find the exact value of m and of c for these data.

[2]
b.i.

Show that the point M (ˉx, yˉ ) lies on the regression line y on x.

[2]
b.ii.

Use the regression line y on x to estimate Jerome’s examination score.

[2]
c.i.

Justify whether it is valid to use the regression line y on x to estimate Jerome’s examination score.

[2]
c.ii.

In his final IB examination Jerome scored 65.

Calculate the percentage error in Jerome’s estimated examination score.

[2]
d.

Markscheme
14 (G1)

[1 mark]

a.i.

54 (G1)

[1 mark]

a.ii.

0.5 (G2)

[2 marks]
a.iii.

m = 0.875, c = 41.75 (m= ,c=

7
8
167
4 ) (A1)(A1)

Note: Award (A1) for 0.875 seen. Award (A1) for 41.75 seen. If 41.75 is rounded to 41.8 do not award (A1).

[2 marks]

b.i.

y = 0.875(14) + 41.75 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for their correct substitution into their regression line. Follow through from parts (a)(i) and (b)(i).

= 54

and so the mean point lies on the regression line (A1)

(accept 54 is yˉ , the mean value of the y data)

Note: Do not award (A1) unless the conclusion is explicitly stated and the 54 seen. The (A1) can be awarded only if
their conclusion is consistent with their equation and it lies on the line.

The use of 41.8 as their c value precludes awarding (A1).

OR

54 = 0.875(14) + 41.75 (M1)

54 = 54

Note: Award (M1) for their correct substitution into their regression line. Follow through from parts (a)(i) and (b)(i).

and so the mean point lies on the regression line (A1)

Note: Do not award (A1) unless the conclusion is explicitly stated. Follow through from part (a).

The use of 41.8 as their c value precludes the awarding of (A1).

[2 marks]

b.ii.

y = 0.875(17) + 41.75 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for correct substitution into their regression line.

= 56.6 (56.625) (A1)(ft)(G2)

Note: Follow through from part (b)(i).

[2 marks]

c.i.

the estimate is valid (A1)

since this is interpolation and the correlation coefficient is large enough (R1)

OR

the estimate is not valid (A1)

 since the correlation coefficient is not large enough (R1)

Note: Do not award (A1)(R0). The (R1) may be awarded for reasoning based on strength of correlation, but do not
accept “correlation coefficient is not strong enough” or “correlation is not large enough”.

Award (A0)(R0) for this method if no numerical answer to part (a)(iii) is seen.

[2 marks]

c.ii.

| 56.6 − 65
65 | × 100 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for correct substitution into percentage error formula. Follow through from part (c)(i).

= 12.9 (%)(12.9230…) (A1)(ft)(G2)

Note: Follow through from part (c)(i). Condone use of percentage symbol.
Award (G0) for an answer of −12.9 with no working.

[2 marks]

d.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.i.
[N/A]
a.ii.
[N/A]
a.iii.
[N/A]
b.i.
[N/A]
b.ii.
[N/A]
c.i.
[N/A]
c.ii.
[N/A]
d.

Emlyn plays many games of basketball for his school team. The number of minutes he plays in each game follows a
normal distribution with mean m minutes.

In any game there is a 30 % chance he will play less than 13. 6 minutes.

In any game there is a 70 % chance he will play less than 17. 8 minutes.

The standard deviation of the number of minutes Emlyn plays in any game is 4.

There is a 60 % chance Emlyn plays less than x minutes in a game.

Emlyn will play in two basketball games today.

Emlyn and his teammate Johan each practise shooting the basketball multiple times from a point X. A record of their
performance over the weekend is shown in the table below.
On Monday, Emlyn and Johan will practise and each will shoot 200 times from point X.

Sketch a diagram to represent this information.

[2]
a.

Show that m = 15. 7.

[2]
b.

Find the probability that Emlyn plays between 13 minutes and 18 minutes in a game.

[2]
c.i.

Find the probability that Emlyn plays more than 20 minutes in a game.

[2]
c.ii.

Find the value of x.

[2]
d.

Find the probability he plays between 13 minutes and 18 minutes in one game and more than 20 minutes in the other
game.

[3]
e.

Find the expected number of successful shots Emlyn will make on Monday, based on the results from Saturday and
Sunday.

[2]
f.

Emlyn claims the results from Saturday and Sunday show that his expected number of successful shots will be
more than Johan’s.

Determine if Emlyn’s claim is correct. Justify your reasoning.

[2]
g.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

(A1)(A1)

Note: Award (A1) for bell shaped curve with mean m or 13. 6 indicated. Award (A1) for approximately correct shaded
region.

[2 marks]

a.

P(T > 17. 8) = 0. 3 (M1)

OR
 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for correct probability equation using 0. 3 OR correctly shaded diagram indicating 17. 8. Strict or
weak inequalities are accepted in parts (b), (c) and (d).

13 . 6 + 17 . 8
2 ( 17. 8 -
17 . 8 - 13 . 6
2 ) OR
( 13. 6 +
17 . 8 - 13 . 6
2 ) (M1)

Note: Award (M0)(M1) for unsupported

13 . 6 + 17 . 8
2 (
OR 17. 8 -
17 . 8 - 13 . 6
2 ) (
OR 13. 6 +
17 . 8 - 13 . 6
2 ) OR the midpoint of 13. 6

and 17. 8 is 15. 7.

Award at most (M1)(M0) if the final answer is not seen. Award (M0)(M0) for using known values m = 15. 7 and σ = 4
to validate P(T < 17. 8) = 0. 7 or P(T < 13. 6) = 0. 3.

15. 7 (AG)

[2 marks]

b.

P(13 ≤ T ≤ 18) (M1)

OR

(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for correct probability equation OR correctly shaded diagram indicating 13 and 18.

0. 468 (46. 8 % , 0. 467516…) (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]

c.i.

P(T ≥ 20) (M1)

OR

(M1)
Note: Award (M1) for correct probability equation OR correctly shaded diagram indicating 20.

0. 141 (14. 1 % , 0. 141187…) (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]

c.ii.

P(T < t) = 0. 6 (M1)

OR

(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for correct probability equation OR for a correctly shaded region with x indicated to the right-
hand side of the mean.

16. 7 (16. 7133…) (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]

d.

0. 467516… × 0. 141187… × 2 (M1)(M1)

OR

(0. 467516… × 0. 141187…) + (0. 141187… × 0. 467516…) (M1)(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for the multiplication of their parts (c)(i) and (c)(ii), (M1) for multiplying their product by 2 or for
adding their products twice. Follow through from part (c).

0. 132 (13. 2 % , 0. 132014…) (A1)(ft)(G2)

Note: Award (G0) for an unsupported final answer of 0. 066007…

[3 marks]

e.

69
× 200 (M1)
102

Note: Award (M1) for correct probability multiplied by 200.

135 (135. 294…) (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]

f.
 ( 67
98
× 200 = ) 136. 734… (A1)

Note: Award (M1) for 137 or 136. 734… seen.

Emlyn is incorrect, 135 < 137 (135. 294… < 136. 734…) (R1)

Note: To award the final (R1), both the conclusion and the comparison must be seen. Award at most (A0)(R1)(ft)
for consistent incorrect methods in parts (f) and (g).

OR

( ) 67
98
= 0. 684 (0. 683673…) ( )
69
102
= 0. 676 (0. 676470…) (A1)

Note: Award (A1) for both correct probabilities seen.

Emlyn is incorrect, 0. 676 < 0. 684 (R1)

Note: To award the final (R1), both the conclusion and the comparison must be seen. Award at most (A0)(R1)
(ft) for consistent incorrect methods in parts (f) and (g).

[2 marks]

g.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.i.
[N/A]
c.ii.
[N/A]
d.
[N/A]
e.
[N/A]
f.
[N/A]
g.

On a school excursion, 100 students visited an amusement park. The amusement park’s main attractions are
rollercoasters (R), water slides (W), and virtual reality rides (V).

The students were asked which main attractions they visited. The results are shown in the Venn diagram.
A total of 74 students visited the rollercoasters or the water slides.

Find the value of a.

[2]
a.i.

Find the value of b.

[2]
a.ii.

Find the number of students who visited at least two types of main attraction.

[2]
b.

Write down the value of n( R ∩ W) .

[1]
c.

Find the probability that a randomly selected student visited the rollercoasters.

[2]
d.i.

Find the probability that a randomly selected student visited the virtual reality rides.

[1]
d.ii.

Hence determine whether the events in parts (d)(i) and (d)(ii) are independent. Justify your reasoning.

[2]
e.

Markscheme
74 - (32 + 12 + 10 + 9 + 5) OR 74 - 68 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for setting up a correct expression.

(a = ) 6 (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]

a.i.

100 - (74 + 18) (M1)

OR

100 - 92 (M1)

OR

100 - (32 + 9 + 5 + 12 + 10 + 18 + 6) (M1)

 Note: Award (M1) for setting up a correct expression. Follow through from part (a)(i) but only for a ≥ 0.

(b = ) 8 (A1)(ft)(G2)

Note: Follow through from part(a)(i). The value of b must be greater or equal to zero for the (A1)(ft) to be awarded.

[2 marks]

a.ii.

9 + 5 + 12 + 10 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for adding 9, 5, 12 and 10.

36 (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]

b.

14 (A1)

[1 mark]

c.

58
100 ( 29
50
, 0. 58, 58 % ) (A1)(A1)(G2)

Note: Award (A1) for correct numerator. Award(A1) for the correct denominator. Award (A0) for 58 only.

[2 marks]

d.i.

45
100 ( 9
20
, 0. 45, 45 % ) (A1)(ft)

Note: Follow through from their denominator from part (d)(i).

[1 mark]

d.ii.

they are not independent (A1)(ft)

58 45 17
× ≠ OR 0. 261 ≠ 0. 17 (R1)
100 100 100

Note: Comparison of numerical values must be seen for (R1) to be awarded.

Do not award (A1)(R0). Follow through from parts (d)(i) and (d)(ii).

[2 marks]

e.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.i.
[N/A]
a.ii.
 [N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.i.
[N/A]
d.ii.
[N/A]
e.

At a school, 70 % of the students play a sport and 20 % of the students are involved in theatre. 18 % of the students do
neither activity.

A student is selected at random.

At the school 48 % of the students are girls, and 25 % of the girls are involved in theatre.

A student is selected at random. Let G be the event “the student is a girl” and let T be the event “the student is involved
in theatre”.

Find the probability that the student plays a sport and is involved in theatre.

[2]
a.

Find the probability that the student is involved in theatre, but does not play a sport.

[2]
b.

Find P(G ∩ T).

[2]
c.

Determine if the events G and T are independent. Justify your answer.

[2]
d.

Markscheme
EITHER

P(S) + P(T) + P(S ' OR P( S ∪ T ) = P ( S ' ∩ T ') ' (M1)

0 . 7 + 0 . 2 + 0 . 18 − P( S ∩ T ) = 1 OR P( S ∪ T ) = 1 − 0 . 18

OR

a clearly labelled Venn diagram (M1)

THEN

P ( S ∩ T ) = 0 . 08 (accept 8 % ) A1

Note: To obtain the M1 for the Venn diagram all labels must be correct and in the correct sections. For example, do
not accept 0 . 7 in the area corresponding to S ∩ T '.

[2 marks]

a.

EITHER

P( T ∩ S ') = P( T ) − P( T ∩ S ) ( = 0 . 2 − 0 . 08) OR
 P( T ∩ S ') = P( T ∪ S ) − P( S ) ( = 0 . 82 − 0 . 7) (M1)

OR

a clearly labelled Venn diagram including P( S ) , P( T ) and P( S ∩ T ) (M1)

THEN

= 0 . 12 (accept 12 % ) A1

[2 marks]

b.

P( G ∩ T ) = P T / G P( G ) 0 . 25 × 0 . 48 (M1)

= 0 . 12 A1

[2 marks]

c.

METHOD 1

P( G ) × P( T ) = 0 . 48 × 0 . 2 = 0 . 096 A1

P( G ) × P( T ) ≠P( G ∩ T ) ⇒ G and T are not independent R1

METHOD 2

P( T G ) = 0 . 25 A1

P( T G ) ≠ P( T ) ⇒ G and T are not independent R1

Note: Do not award A0R1.

[2 marks]

d.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.

The heights of adult males in a country are normally distributed with a mean of 180 cm and a standard deviation of
σ cm. 17% of these men are shorter than 168 cm. 80% of them have heights between (192 − h ) cm and 192 cm.

Find the value of h .

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

finding the z -value for 0.17 (A1)

eg z = − 0.95416

setting up equation to find σ , (M1)

eg z = 168 −
σ
180 − 12
, − 0.954 = σ

σ = 12.5765 (A1)

EITHER (Properties of the Normal curve)

correct value (seen anywhere) (A1)

eg P(X < 192) = 0.83, P(X > 192) = 0.17

correct working (A1)

eg P(X < 192 − h ) = 0.83 − 0.8, P(X < 192 − h ) = 1 − 0.8 − 0.17,

P(X > 192 − h ) = 0.8 + 0.17

correct equation in h

(192 − h ) − 180
eg = − 1.88079, 192 − h = 156.346 (A1)
12.576

35.6536

h = 35.7 A1 N3

OR (Trial and error using different values of h)

two correct probabilities whose 2 sf will round up and down, respectively, to 0.8 A2

eg P(192 − 35.6 < X < 192) = 0.799706, P(157 < X < 192) = 0.796284,

P(192 − 36 < X < 192) = 0.801824

h = 35.7 A2

[7 marks]

Examiners report
[N/A]

The following table shows the average body weight, x , and the average weight of the brain, y , of seven species of
mammal. Both measured in kilograms (kg).

The average body weight of grey wolves is 36 kg.

In fact, the average weight of the brain of grey wolves is 0.120 kg.

The average body weight of mice is 0.023 kg.

Find the range of the average body weights for these seven species of mammal.

[2]
a.

For the data from these seven species calculate r , the Pearson’s product–moment correlation coefficient;

[2]
b.i.

For the data from these seven species describe the correlation between the average body weight and the average
weight of the brain.

[2]
b.ii.

Write down the equation of the regression line y on x , in the form y = mx + c .

 [2]
c.

Use your regression line to estimate the average weight of the brain of grey wolves.

[2]
d.

Find the percentage error in your estimate in part (d).

[2]
e.

State whether it is valid to use the regression line to estimate the average weight of the brain of mice. Give a
reason for your answer.

[2]
f.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

529 − 3 (M1)

= 526 (kg) (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]

a.

0.922 (0.921857…) (G2)

[2 marks]

b.i.

(very) strong, positive (A1)(ft)(A1)(ft)

Note: Follow through from part (b)(i).

[2 marks]

b.ii.

y = 0.000986x + 0.0923 (y = 0.000985837…x + 0.0923391…) (A1)(A1)

Note: Award (A1) for 0.000986x , (A1) for 0.0923.

Award a maximum of (A1)(A0) if the answer is not an equation in the form y = mx + c .

[2 marks]

c.

0.000985837…(36) + 0.0923391… (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for substituting 36 into their equation.

0.128 (kg) 0.127829… (kg) (A1)(ft)(G2)

Note: Follow through from part (c). The final (A1) is awarded only if their answer is positive.
 [2 marks]

d.
0.127829… − 0.120 × 100 (M1)
0.120

Note: Award (M1) for their correct substitution into percentage error formula.

6.52 (%) 6.52442... (%) (A1)(ft)(G2)

Note: Follow through from part (d). Do not accept a negative answer.

[2 marks]

e.

Not valid (A1)

the mouse is smaller/lighter/weighs less than the cat (lightest mammal) (R1)

OR

as it would mean the mouse’s brain is heavier than the whole mouse (R1)

OR

0.023 kg is outside the given data range. (R1)

OR

Extrapolation (R1)

Note: Do not award (A1)(R0). Do not accept percentage error as a reason for validity.

[2 marks]

f.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.i.
[N/A]
b.ii.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.
[N/A]
e.
[N/A]
f.

At Penna Airport the probability, P(A), that all passengers arrive on time for a flight is 0.70. The probability, P(D), that a
flight departs on time is 0.85. The probability that all passengers arrive on time for a flight and it departs on time is
0.65.

The number of hours that pilots fly per week is normally distributed with a mean of 25 hours and a standard deviation σ
. 90 % of pilots fly less than 28 hours in a week.
 Show that event A and event D are not independent.

[2]
a.

Find P A ∩ D ′ .

[2]
b.i.

Given that all passengers for a flight arrive on time, find the probability that the flight does not depart on time.

[3]
b.ii.

Find the value of σ .

[3]
c.

All flights have two pilots. Find the percentage of flights where both pilots flew more than 30 hours last week.

[4]
d.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

METHOD 1

multiplication of P(A) and P(D) (A1)

eg 0.70 × 0.85, 0.595

correct reasoning for their probabilities R1

eg 0.595 ≠ 0.65, 0.70 × 0.85 ≠ P A ∩ D

A and D are not independent AG N0

METHOD 2

calculation of P D | A (A1)

eg 13 , 0.928
14

correct reasoning for their probabilities R1

eg 0.928 ≠ 0.85, 0.65 P( D )

0.7

A and D are not independent AG N0

[2 marks]

a.

correct working (A1)

eg P A −P A ∩D , 0.7 − 0.65 , correct shading and/or value on Venn diagram

P A ∩ D′ = 0.05 A1 N2

[2 marks]

b.i.

recognizing conditional probability (seen anywhere) (M1)

P D′ ∩ A
eg , P A |B
P( A )
 correct working (A1)

eg 0.05
0.7

0.071428

P D′ |A = 1 , 0.0714 A1 N2
14

[3 marks]

b.ii.

finding standardized value for 28 hours (seen anywhere) (A1)

eg z = 1.28155

correct working to find σ (A1)

eg 1.28155 = 28 −
σ
25 , 28 − 25
1.28155

2.34091

σ = 2.34 A1 N2

[3 marks]

c.

P X > 30 = 0.0163429 (A1)

valid approach (seen anywhere) (M1)

eg P X > 30 2
, (0.01634)2 , B(2, 0.0163429) , 2.67E-4 , 2.66E-4

0.0267090

0.0267 % A2 N3

[4 marks]

d.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.i.
[N/A]
b.ii.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.

The table below shows the distribution of test grades for 50 IB students at Greendale School.

A student is chosen at random from these 50 students.

A second student is chosen at random from these 50 students.

The number of minutes that the 50 students spent preparing for the test was normally distributed with a mean of 105
minutes and a standard deviation of 20 minutes.

Calculate the mean test grade of the students;

[2]
a.i.

Calculate the standard deviation.

 [1]
a.ii.

Find the median test grade of the students.

[1]
b.

Find the interquartile range.

[2]
c.

Find the probability that this student scored a grade 5 or higher.

[2]
d.

Given that the first student chosen at random scored a grade 5 or higher, find the probability that both students
scored a grade 6.

[3]
e.

Calculate the probability that a student chosen at random spent at least 90 minutes preparing for the test.

[2]
f.i.

Calculate the expected number of students that spent at least 90 minutes preparing for the test.

[2]
f.ii.

Markscheme
1(1) + 3(2) + 7(3) + 13(4) + 11(5) + 10(6) + 5(7) 230
= (M1)
50 50

Note: Award (M1) for correct substitution into mean formula.

= 4.6 (A1) (G2)

[2 marks]

a.i.

1.46 (1.45602…) (G1)

[1 mark]

a.ii.

5 (A1)

[1 mark]

b.

6−4 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for 6 and 4 seen.

=2 (A1) (G2)

[2 marks]

c.
11 + 10 + 5
(M1)
50

Note: Award (M1) for 11 + 10 + 5 seen.

26 13
= , 0.52, 52% (A1) (G2)
50 25

[2 marks]

d.
10 9
× (M1)(M1)
their 26 49

Note: Award (M1) for 10 seen, (M1) for multiplying their first probability by 9 .
their 26 49

OR
10 9
×
50 49
26
50

10 9 their 26
Note: Award (M1) for × seen, (M1) for dividing their first probability by .
50 49 50

= 45 (0.0706, 0.0706436…, 7.06436…%) (A1)(ft) (G3)

637

Note: Follow through from part (d).

[3 marks]

e.

P(X ⩾ 90) (M1)

OR

(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for a diagram showing the correct shaded region ( > 0.5).

0.773 (0.773372…) 0.773 (0.773372…, 77.3372…%) (A1) (G2)

[2 marks]

f.i.

0.773372… × 50 (M1)

= 38.7 (38.6686…) (A1)(ft) (G2)

Note: Follow through from part (f)(i).

 [2 marks]

f.ii.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.i.
[N/A]
a.ii.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.
[N/A]
e.
[N/A]
f.i.
[N/A]
f.ii.

In the month before their IB Diploma examinations, eight male students recorded the number of hours they spent on
social media.

For each student, the number of hours spent on social media ( x ) and the number of IB Diploma points obtained ( y ) are
shown in the following table.

Use your graphic display calculator to find

Ten female students also recorded the number of hours they spent on social media in the month before their IB Diploma
examinations. Each of these female students spent between 3 and 30 hours on social media.

The equation of the regression line y on x for these ten female students is

y = − 2 x + 125 .
3 3
An eleventh girl spent 34 hours on social media in the month before her IB Diploma examinations.

On graph paper, draw a scatter diagram for these data. Use a scale of 2 cm to represent 5 hours on the x -axis and
2 cm to represent 10 points on the y -axis.

[4]
a.

(i) x¯ , the mean number of hours spent on social media;

¯
(ii) y , the mean number of IB Diploma points.

[2]
b.
¯
Plot the point (x¯ , y ) on your scatter diagram and label this point M.

[2]
c.

Write down the value of r , the Pearson’s product–moment correlation coefficient, for these data.

[2]
d.

Write down the equation of the regression line y on x for these eight male students.

[2]
e.

Draw the regression line, from part (e), on your scatter diagram.

[2]
 f.

Use the given equation of the regression line to estimate the number of IB Diploma points that this girl obtained.

[2]
g.

Write down a reason why this estimate is not reliable.

[1]
h.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

(A4)

Notes: Award (A1) for correct scale and labelled axes.

Award (A3) for 7 or 8 points correctly plotted,

(A2) for 5 or 6 points correctly plotted,

(A1) for 3 or 4 points correctly plotted.

Award at most (A0)(A3) if axes reversed.

Accept x and y sufficient for labelling.

If graph paper is not used, award (A0).

If an inconsistent scale is used, award (A0). Candidates’ points should be read from this scale where possible and
awarded accordingly.

A scale which is too small to be meaningful (ie mm instead of cm) earns (A0) for plotted points.

[4 marks]

a.

(i) x¯ = 21 (A1)
¯
(ii) y = 31 (A1)

[2 marks]

b.
¯ ¯
(x , y ) correctly plotted on graph (A1)(ft)

this point labelled M (A1)

Note: Follow through from parts (b)(i) and (b)(ii).

Only accept M for labelling.

[2 marks]

c.

− 0.973 ( − 0.973388…) (G2)

Note: Award (G1) for 0.973, without minus sign.

[2 marks]
 d.

y = − 0.761x + 47.0 (y = − 0.760638…x + 46.9734…) (A1)(A1)(G2)

Notes: Award (A1) for − 0.761x and (A1) + 47.0. Award a maximum of (A1)(A0) if answer is not an equation.

[2 marks]

e.

line on graph (A1)(ft)(A1)(ft)

Notes: Award (A1)(ft) for straight line that passes through their M, (A1)(ft) for line (extrapolated if necessary)
that passes through (0, 47.0).

If M is not plotted or labelled, follow through from part (e).

[2 marks]

f.

y = − 2 (34) + 125 (M1)

3 3

Note: Award (M1) for correct substitution.

19 (points) (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]

g.

extrapolation (R1)

OR

34 hours is outside the given range of data (R1)

Note: Do not accept ‘outlier’.

[1 mark]

h.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.
[N/A]
e.
[N/A]
f.
[N/A]
g.
[N/A]
h.
A manufacturer produces 1500 boxes of breakfast cereal every day.

The weights of these boxes are normally distributed with a mean of 502 grams and a standard deviation of 2 grams.

All boxes of cereal with a weight between 497.5 grams and 505 grams are sold. The manufacturer’s income from the
sale of each box of cereal is $2.00.

The manufacturer recycles any box of cereal with a weight not between 497.5 grams and 505 grams. The
manufacturer’s recycling cost is $0.16 per box.

A different manufacturer produces boxes of cereal with weights that are normally distributed with a mean of 350
grams and a standard deviation of 1.8 grams.

This manufacturer sells all boxes of cereal that are above a minimum weight, w .

They sell 97% of the cereal boxes produced.

Draw a diagram that shows this information.

[2]
a.

(i) Find the probability that a box of cereal, chosen at random, is sold.

(ii) Calculate the manufacturer’s expected daily income from these sales.

[4]
b.

Calculate the manufacturer’s expected daily recycling cost.

[2]
c.

Calculate the value of w .

[3]
d.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

(A1)(A1)

Notes: Award (A1) for bell shape with mean of 502.

Award (A1) for an indication of standard deviation eg 500 and 504.

[2 marks]

a.

(i) 0.921 (0.920968…, 92.0968…%) (G2)

Note: Award (M1) for a diagram showing the correct shaded region.

(ii) 1500 × 2 × 0.920968… (M1)

= ($) 2760 (2762.90…) (A1)(ft)(G2)

Note: Follow through from their answer to part (b)(i).

 [4 marks]

b.

1500 × 0.16 × 0.079031… (M1)

Notes: Award (A1) for 1500 × 0.16 × their (1 − 0.920968…).

OR

(1500 − 1381.45) × 0.16 (M1)

Notes: Award (M1) for (1500 − their 1381.45) × 0.16.

= ($)19.0 (18.9676…) (A1)(ft)(G2)

[2 marks]

c.

347 (grams) (346.614…) (G3)

Notes: Award (G2) for an answer that rounds to 346.

Award (G1) for 353.385… seen without working (for finding the top 3%).

[3 marks]

d.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.

The final examination results obtained by a group of 3200 Biology students are summarized on the cumulative
frequency graph.
350 of the group obtained the highest possible grade in the examination.

The grouped frequency table summarizes the examination results of this group of students.

Find the median of the examination results.

[2]
a.i.

Find the interquartile range.

[3]
a.ii.

Find the final examination result required to obtain the highest possible grade.

[2]
b.

Write down the modal class.

[2]
c.i.

Write down the mid-interval value of the modal class.

[1]
c.ii.

Calculate an estimate of the mean examination result.

[2]
 d.i.

Calculate an estimate of the standard deviation, giving your answer correct to three decimal places.

[1]
d.ii.

The teacher sets a grade boundary that is one standard deviation below the mean.

Use the cumulative frequency graph to estimate the number of students whose final examination result was below
this grade boundary.

[3]
e.

Markscheme
60 (A2)

[2 marks]

a.i.

68 − 48 (A1)(M1)

Note: Award (A1) for two correct quartiles seen, (M1) for finding the difference between their two quartiles.

= 20 (A1)(ft)(G3)

[3 marks]

a.ii.

3200 − 350 = 2850 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for 2850 seen. Follow through from their 3200.

(Top grade boundary =) 76 (A1)(ft)(G2)

[2 marks]

b.

60 < x ≤ 80 (A1)(A1)

Note: Award (A1) for 60, 80 seen, (A1) for correct strict and weak inequalities.

[2 marks]

c.i.

70 (A1)(ft)

Note: Follow through from part (c)(i).

[1 mark]

c.ii.

57.2 (57.1875) (A2)(ft)

Note: Follow through from part (c)(ii).

 [2 marks]

d.i.

18.496 (A1)

Note: Award (A0) for 18.499.

[1 mark]

d.ii.

57.2 − 18.5 (M1)

= 38.7 (38.6918…) (A1)(ft)

Note: Award (M1) for subtracting their standard deviation from their mean. Follow through from part (d) even if no
working is shown.

450 (students) (A1)(ft)(G2)

Note: Accept any answer within the range of 450 to 475, inclusive. Follow through from part (d), adjusting the
acceptable range as necessary.

[3 marks]

e.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.i.
[N/A]
a.ii.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.i.
[N/A]
c.ii.
[N/A]
d.i.
[N/A]
d.ii.
[N/A]
e.

A company performs an experiment on the efficiency of a liquid that is used to detect a nut allergy.

A group of 60 people took part in the experiment. In this group 26 are allergic to nuts. One person from the group is
chosen at random.

A second person is chosen from the group.

When the liquid is added to a person’s blood sample, it is expected to turn blue if the person is allergic to nuts and to
turn red if the person is not allergic to nuts.

The company claims that the probability that the test result is correct is 98% for people who are allergic to nuts and
95% for people who are not allergic to nuts.

It is known that 6 in every 1000 adults are allergic to nuts.

This information can be represented in a tree diagram.

An adult, who was not part of the original group of 60, is chosen at random and tested using this liquid.
The liquid is used in an office to identify employees who might be allergic to nuts. The liquid turned blue for 38
employees.

Find the probability that both people chosen are not allergic to nuts.

[2]
b.

Copy and complete the tree diagram.

[3]
c.

Find the probability that this adult is allergic to nuts and the liquid turns blue.

[2]
d.

Find the probability that the liquid turns blue.

[3]
e.

Find the probability that the tested adult is allergic to nuts given that the liquid turned blue.

[3]
f.

Estimate the number of employees, from this 38, who are allergic to nuts.

[2]
g.

Markscheme
34 × 33 (M1)
60 59

Note: Award (M1) for their correct product.

187
= 0.317 , 0.316949…, 31.7% (A1)(ft)(G2)
590

Note: Follow through from part (a).

[2 marks]

b.

(A1)(A1)(A1)

Note: Award (A1) for each correct pair of branches.

[3 marks]

c.

0.006 × 0.98 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for multiplying 0.006 by 0.98.

 = 0.00588 147 , 0.588% (A1)(G2)
25000

[2 marks]

d.

0.006 × 0.98 + 0.994 × 0.05 (0.00588 + 0.994 × 0.05) (A1)(ft)(M1)

Note: Award (A1)(ft) for their two correct products, (M1) for adding two products.

= 0.0556 0.05558, 5.56%, 2779 (A1)(ft)(G3)

50000

Note: Follow through from parts (c) and (d).

[3 marks]

e.
0.006 × 0.98 (M1)(M1)
0.05558

Note: Award (M1) for their correct numerator, (M1) for their correct denominator.

42
= 0.106 0.105793…, 10.6%, (A1)(ft)(G3)
397

Note: Follow through from parts (d) and (e).

[3 marks]

f.

0.105793… × 38 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for multiplying 38 by their answer to part (f).

= 4.02 (4.02015…) (A1)(ft)(G2)

Notes: Follow through from part (f). Use of 3 sf result from part (f) results in an answer of 4.03 (4.028).

[2 marks]

g.

Examiners report
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.
[N/A]
 e.
[N/A]
f.
[N/A]
g.

In a company it is found that 25 % of the employees encountered traffic on their way to work. From those who
encountered traffic the probability of being late for work is 80 %.

From those who did not encounter traffic, the probability of being late for work is 15 %.

The tree diagram illustrates the information.

The company investigates the different means of transport used by their employees in the past year to travel to work. It
was found that the three most common means of transport used to travel to work were public transportation (P ), car
(C ) and bicycle (B ).

The company finds that 20 employees travelled by car, 28 travelled by bicycle and 19 travelled by public transportation
in the last year.

Some of the information is shown in the Venn diagram.

There are 54 employees in the company.

Write down the value of a.

[1]
a.i.

Write down the value of b.

[1]
a.ii.

Use the tree diagram to find the probability that an employee encountered traffic and was late for work.

[2]
b.i.

Use the tree diagram to find the probability that an employee was late for work.

[3]
b.ii.

Use the tree diagram to find the probability that an employee encountered traffic given that they were late for
 work.

[3]
b.iii.

Find the value of x.

[1]
c.i.

Find the value of y.

[1]
c.ii.

Find the number of employees who, in the last year, did not travel to work by car, bicycle or public transportation.

[2]
d.

Find n ( C ∪ B ) ∩ P ′ .

[2]
e.

Markscheme
a = 0.2 (A1)

[1 mark]

a.i.

b = 0.85 (A1)

[1 mark]

a.ii.

0.25 × 0.8 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for a correct product.

= 0.2 1 , 20% (A1)(G2)

5

[2 marks]

b.i.

0.25 × 0.8 + 0.75 × 0.15 (A1)(ft)(M1)

Note: Award (A1)(ft) for their (0.25 × 0.8) and (0.75 × 0.15), (M1) for adding two products.

= 0.313 0.3125, 5 , 31.3% (A1)(ft)(G3)

16

Note: Award the final (A1)(ft) only if answer does not exceed 1. Follow through from part (b)(i).

[3 marks]

b.ii.
0.25 × 0.8
(A1)(ft)(A1)(ft)
0.25 × 0.8 + 0.75 × 0.15

Note: Award (A1)(ft) for a correct numerator (their part (b)(i)), (A1)(ft) for a correct denominator (their part (b)
(ii)). Follow through from parts (b)(i) and (b)(ii).
 = 0.64 16 , 64% (A1)(ft)(G3)
25

Note: Award final (A1)(ft) only if answer does not exceed 1.

[3 marks]

b.iii.

(x =) 3 (A1)

[1 Mark]

c.i.

(y =) 10 (A1)(ft)

Note: Following through from part (c)(i) but only if their x is less than or equal to 13.

[1 Mark]

c.ii.

54 − (10 + 3 + 4 + 2 + 6 + 8 + 13) (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for subtracting their correct sum from 54. Follow through from their part (c).

=8 (A1)(ft)(G2)

Note: Award (A1)(ft) only if their sum does not exceed 54. Follow through from their part (c).

[2 marks]

d.

6 + 8 + 13 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for summing 6, 8 and 13.

27 (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]

e.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.i.
[N/A]
a.ii.
[N/A]
b.i.
[N/A]
b.ii.
[N/A]
b.iii.
[N/A]
c.i.
[N/A]
c.ii.
[N/A]
d.
[N/A]
e.

Adam is a beekeeper who collected data about monthly honey production in his bee hives. The data for six of his hives is
shown in the following table.

The relationship between the variables is modelled by the regression line with equation P = aN + b .

Adam has 200 hives in total. He collects data on the monthly honey production of all the hives. This data is shown in the
following cumulative frequency graph.

Adam’s hives are labelled as low, regular or high production, as defined in the following table.

Adam knows that 128 of his hives have a regular production.

Write down the value of a and of b .

[3]
a.

Use this regression line to estimate the monthly honey production from a hive that has 270 bees.

[2]
b.

Write down the number of low production hives.

[1]
c.

Find the value of k ;

[3]
d.i.

Find the number of hives that have a high production.

[2]
d.ii.

Adam decides to increase the number of bees in each low production hive. Research suggests that there is a
probability of 0.75 that a low production hive becomes a regular production hive. Calculate the probability that 30
low production hives become regular production hives.

[3]
e.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

evidence of setup (M1)

eg correct value for a or b

a = 6.96103, b = − 454.805

a = 6.96, b = − 455 (accept 6.96x − 455) A1A1 N3

[3 marks]

a.

substituting N = 270 into their equation (M1)

eg 6.96(270) − 455

1424.67

P = 1420 (g) A1 N2

[2 marks]

b.

40 (hives) A1 N1

[1 mark]

c.

valid approach (M1)

 eg 128 + 40

168 hives have a production less than k (A1)

k = 1640 A1 N3

[3 marks]

d.i.

valid approach (M1)

eg 200 − 168

32 (hives) A1 N2

[2 marks]

d.ii.

recognize binomial distribution (seen anywhere) (M1)

eg X ∼ B(n , p ), n p r (1 − p )n − r
r

correct values (A1)

eg n = 40 (check FT) and p = 0.75 and r = 30, 40 0.7530(1 − 0.75)10

30

0.144364

0.144 A1 N2

[3 marks]

e.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.i.
[N/A]
d.ii.
[N/A]
e.

Consider the following frequency table.

Write down the mode.

[1]
a.i.

Find the value of the range.

[2]
a.ii.

Find the mean.

[2]
b.i.

Find the variance.

[2]
 b.ii.

Markscheme
mode = 10 A1 N1

[1 mark]

a.i.

valid approach (M1)

eg x max − x min , interval 2 to 11

range = 9 A1 N2

[2 marks]

a.ii.

7.14666

mean = 7.15 A2 N2

[2 marks]

b.i.

recognizing that variance is (sd)2 (M1)

eg var = σ 2, 2.906052, 2.925622

σ 2 = 8.44515

σ 2 = 8.45 A1 N2

[2 marks]

b.ii.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.i.
[N/A]
a.ii.
[N/A]
b.i.
[N/A]
b.ii.

The weights, in grams, of oranges grown in an orchard, are normally distributed with a mean of 297 g. It is known that
79 % of the oranges weigh more than 289 g and 9.5 % of the oranges weigh more than 310 g.

The weights of the oranges have a standard deviation of σ.

The grocer at a local grocery store will buy the oranges whose weights exceed the 35th percentile.

The orchard packs oranges in boxes of 36.

Find the probability that an orange weighs between 289 g and 310 g.

[2]
a.

Find the standardized value for 289 g.

[2]
b.i.

Hence, find the value of σ.

[3]
b.ii.
 To the nearest gram, find the minimum weight of an orange that the grocer will buy.

[3]
c.

Find the probability that the grocer buys more than half the oranges in a box selected at random.

[5]
d.

The grocer selects two boxes at random.

Find the probability that the grocer buys more than half the oranges in each box.

[2]
e.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

correct approach indicating subtraction (A1)

eg 0.79 − 0.095, appropriate shading in diagram

P(289 < w < 310) = 0.695 (exact), 69.5 % A1 N2

[2 marks]

a.

METHOD 1

valid approach (M1)

eg 1 − p, 21

−0.806421

z = −0.806 A1 N2

METHOD 2

(i) & (ii)

correct expression for z (seen anywhere) (A1)

eg 289σ− u

valid approach (M1)

eg 1 − p, 21

−0.806421

z = −0.806 (seen anywhere) A1 N2

[2 marks]

b.i.

METHOD 1

attempt to standardize (M1)

eg σ = 289 −
z
297 , 289 − 297
σ
correct substitution with their z (do not accept a probability) A1

eg − 0.806 = 289 −
σ
297 , 289 − 297
− 0.806
9.92037
σ = 9.92 A1 N2

METHOD 2

(i) & (ii)

correct expression for z (seen anywhere) (A1)

eg 289σ− u

valid approach (M1)

eg 1 − p, 21

−0.806421

z = −0.806 (seen anywhere) A1 N2

valid attempt to set up an equation with their z (do not accept a probability) (M1)

eg − 0.806 = 289 −
σ
297 , 289 − 297
− 0.806

9.92037

σ = 9.92 A1 N2

[3 marks]

b.ii.

valid approach (M1)

eg P(W < w) = 0.35, −0.338520 (accept 0.385320), diagram showing values in a standard normal distribution

correct score at the 35th percentile (A1)

eg 293.177

294 (g) A1 N2

Note: If working shown, award (M1)(A1)A0 for 293.

If no working shown, award N1 for 293.177, N1 for 293.

Exception to the FT rule: If the score is incorrect, and working shown, award A1FT for correctly finding their
minimum weight (by rounding up)

[3 marks]

c.

evidence of recognizing binomial (seen anywhere) (M1)

eg X ∼ B( 36, p ) , n Ca × p a × q n − a

correct probability (seen anywhere) (A1)

eg 0.65

EITHER

finding P(X ≤ 18) from GDC (A1)

eg 0.045720

evidence of using complement (M1)

eg 1−P(X ≤ 18)

0.954279

P(X > 18) = 0.954 A1 N2

OR

recognizing P(X > 18) = P(X ≥ 19) (M1)

 summing terms from 19 to 36 (A1)

eg P(X = 19) + P(X = 20) + … + P(X = 36)

0.954279

P(X > 18) = 0.954 A1 N2

[5 marks]

d.

correct calculation (A1)

0.9542, 2 0.9542 1 − 0.954 0

2

0.910650

0.911 A1 N2

[2 marks]

e.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.i.
[N/A]
b.ii.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.
[N/A]
e.

A factory manufactures lamps. It is known that the probability that a lamp is found to be defective is 0 . 05. A random
sample of 30 lamps is tested.

Find the probability that there is at least one defective lamp in the sample.

[3]
a.

Given that there is at least one defective lamp in the sample, find the probability that there are at most two
defective lamps.

[4]
b.

Markscheme
recognize that the variable has a Binomial distribution (M1)

X ~B 30, 0 . 05

attempt to find P X ≥ 1 (M1)

1−P X =0 OR 1 − 0 . 9530 OR 1 − 0 . 214638… OR 0 . 785361…

Note: The two M marks are independent of each other.

P X ≥ 1 =0.785 A1

[3 marks]
 a.

recognition of conditional probability (M1)

P X ≤2 X ≥1 OR P at most 2 defective | at least 1 defective

Note: Recognition must be shown in context either in words or symbols but not just P A B .

P 1≤X ≤2 P X = 1 +P X = 2
OR (A1)
P X ≥1 P X ≥1

0 . 597540… 0 . 812178… − 0 . 214638… 0 . 338903… + 0 . 258636…

OR OR (A1)
0 . 785361… 0 . 785361… 0 . 785361…
= 0 . 760847…

P X ≤2 X ≥ 1 = 0 . 761 A1

[4 marks]

b.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.

The weight, W, of basketball players in a tournament is found to be normally distributed with a mean of 65 kg and a
standard deviation of 5 kg.

The probability that a basketball player has a weight that is within 1.5 standard deviations of the mean is q.

A basketball coach observed 60 of her players to determine whether their performance and their weight were
independent of each other. Her observations were recorded as shown in the table.

She decided to conduct a χ 2 test for independence at the 5% significance level.

Find the probability that a basketball player has a weight that is less than 61 kg.

[2]
a.i.

In a training session there are 40 basketball players.

Find the expected number of players with a weight less than 61 kg in this training session.

[2]
a.ii.

Sketch a normal curve to represent this probability.

[2]
b.i.

Find the value of q.

[1]
 b.ii.

Given that P(W > k) = 0.225 , find the value of k.

[2]
c.

For this test state the null hypothesis.

[1]
d.i.

For this test find the p-value.

[2]
d.ii.

State a conclusion for this test. Justify your answer.

[2]
e.

Markscheme
P(W < 61) (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for correct probability statement.

OR

(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for correct region labelled and shaded on diagram.

= 0.212 (0.21185…, 21.2%) (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]

a.i.

40 × 0.21185… (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for product of 40 and their 0.212.

= 8.47 (8.47421...) (A1)(ft)(G2)

Note: Follow through from their part (a)(i) provided their answer to part (a)(i) is less than 1.

[2 marks]

a.ii.

(A1)(M1)

Note: Award (A1) for two correctly labelled vertical lines in approximately correct positions. The values 57.5 and
72.5, or μ − 1.5σ and μ + 1.5σ are acceptable labels. Award (M1) for correctly shaded region marked by their two
vertical lines.

[2 marks]
 b.i.

0.866 (0.86638…, 86.6%) (A1)(ft)

Note: Follow through from their part (b)(i) shaded region if their values are clear.

[1 mark]

b.ii.

P(W < k) = 0.775 (M1)

OR

(M1)

Note: Award (A1) for correct region labelled and shaded on diagram.

(k =) 68.8 (68.7770…) (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]

c.

(H0:) performance (of players) and (their) weight are independent. (A1)

Note: Accept “there is no association between performance (of players) and (their) weight”. Do not accept "not
related" or "not correlated" or "not influenced".

[1 mark]

d.i.

0.287 (0.287436…) (G2)

[2 marks]

d.ii.

accept/ do not reject null hypothesis/H0 (A1)(ft)

OR

performance (of players) and (their) weight are independent. (A1)(ft)

0.287 > 0.05 (R1)(ft)

Note: Accept p-value>significance level provided their p-value is seen in b(ii). Accept 28.7% > 5%. Do not award
(A1)(R0). Follow through from part (d).

[2 marks]

e.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.i.
[N/A]
a.ii.
[N/A]
b.i.
[N/A]
b.ii.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.i.
 [N/A]
d.ii.
[N/A]
e.

The weights, W , of newborn babies in Australia are normally distributed with a mean 3.41 kg and standard deviation
0.57 kg. A newborn baby has a low birth weight if it weighs less than w kg.

Given that 5.3% of newborn babies have a low birth weight, find w .

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

valid approach (M1)

eg z = − 1.61643,

2.48863

w = 2.49 (kg) A2 N3

[3 marks]

Examiners report
[N/A]

160 students attend a dual language school in which the students are taught only in Spanish or taught only in English.

A survey was conducted in order to analyse the number of students studying Biology or Mathematics. The results are
shown in the Venn diagram.

Set S represents those students who are taught in Spanish.

Set B represents those students who study Biology.

Set M represents those students who study Mathematics.

A student from the school is chosen at random.

Find the number of students in the school that are taught in Spanish.
 [2]
a.i.

Find the number of students in the school that study Mathematics in English.

[2]
a.ii.

Find the number of students in the school that study both Biology and Mathematics.

[2]
a.iii.

Write down n S ∩ ( M ∪ B ) .

[1]
b.i.

Write down n B ∩ M ∩ S ′ .

[1]
b.ii.

Find the probability that this student studies Mathematics.

[2]
c.i.

Find the probability that this student studies neither Biology nor Mathematics.

[2]
c.ii.

Find the probability that this student is taught in Spanish, given that the student studies Biology.

[2]
c.iii.

Markscheme
10 + 40 + 28 + 17 (M1)

= 95 (A1)(G2)

Note: Award (M1) for each correct sum (for example: 10 + 40 + 28 + 17) seen.

[2 marks]

a.i.

20 + 12 (M1)

= 32 (A1)(G2)

Note: Award (M1) for each correct sum (for example: 10 + 40 + 28 + 17) seen.

[2 marks]

a.ii.

12 + 40 (M1)

= 52 (A1)(G2)

Note: Award (M1) for each correct sum (for example: 10 + 40 + 28 + 17) seen.

[2 marks]

a.iii.

78 (A1)
 [1 mark]

b.i.

12 (A1)

[1 mark]

b.ii.

100 5 , 0.625, 62.5 % (A1)(A1) (G2)

160 8

Note: Throughout part (c), award (A1) for correct numerator, (A1) for correct denominator. All answers must be
probabilities to award (A1).

[2 marks]

c.i.

42 21 , 0.263 0.2625 , 26.3 % 26.25 % (A1)(A1) (G2)

160 80

Note: Throughout part (c), award (A1) for correct numerator, (A1) for correct denominator. All answers must be
probabilities to award (A1).

[2 marks]

c.ii.

50 5 , 0.714 0.714285… , 71.4 % 71.4285… % (A1)(A1) (G2)

70 7

Note: Throughout part (c), award (A1) for correct numerator, (A1) for correct denominator. All answers must be
probabilities to award (A1).

[2 marks]

c.iii.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.i.
[N/A]
a.ii.
[N/A]
a.iii.
[N/A]
b.i.
[N/A]
b.ii.
[N/A]
c.i.
[N/A]
c.ii.
[N/A]
c.iii.
Lucy sells hot chocolate drinks at her snack bar and has noticed that she sells more hot chocolates on cooler days. On
six different days, she records the maximum daily temperature, T , measured in degrees centigrade, and the number of
hot chocolates sold, H . The results are shown in the following table.

The relationship between H and T can be modelled by the regression line with equation H = aT + b .

Find the value of a and of b .

[3]
a.i.

Write down the correlation coefficient.

[1]
a.ii.

Using the regression equation, estimate the number of hot chocolates that Lucy will sell on a day when the
maximum temperature is 12°C.

[2]
b.

Markscheme
valid approach (M1)

eg correct value for a or b (or for r or r 2 = 0 . 962839 seen in (ii))

a = − 9 . 84636, b = 221 . 592

a = − 9 . 85, b = 222 A1A1 N3

[3 marks]

a.i.

−0 . 981244

r = − 0 . 981 A1 N1

[1 mark]

a.ii.

correct substitution into their equation (A1)

eg −9 . 85 × 12 + 222

103 . 435 (103 . 8 from 3 sf)

103 (hot chocolates) A1 N2

[2 marks]

b.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.i.
[N/A]
a.ii.
[N/A]
b.

Let A and B be two independent events such that P A ∩ B ' = 0 . 16 and P A ′ ∩ B = 0 . 36.

Given that P A ∩ B = x , find the value of x .

 [4]
a.

Find P A ' B' .

[2]
b.

Markscheme
METHOD 1

EITHER

one of P A = x + 0 . 16 OR P( B ) = x + 0 . 36 A1

OR

A1

THEN

attempt to equate their P A ∩ B with their expression for P A × P( B ) M1

P A ∩B =P A × P( B ) ⇒ x = x + 0 . 16 × ( x + 0 . 36) A1

x = 0 . 24 A1

METHOD 2

attempt to form at least one equation in P A and P( B ) using independence M1

P A ∩ B' =P A × P ( B ') ⇒ P A × 1 − P( B ) = 0 . 16 OR

P A' ∩ B = P A' × P( B) ⇒ 1−P A × P( B ) = 0 . 36

P A = 0 . 4 and P( B ) = 0 . 6 A1

P A ∩B =P A × P( B ) = 0 . 4 × 0 . 6 (A1)

x = 0 . 24 A1

[4 marks]

a.

METHOD 1

recognising P A ' B' = P A' (M1)

= 1 − 0 . 16 − 0 . 24

= 0.6 A1
 METHOD 2

P( B ) = 0 . 36 + 0 . 24( = 0 . 6)

P A' ∩ B'
P A' B' = = 0 . 24 (A1)
P( B ') 0.4

= 0.6 A1

[2 marks]

b.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.

The time, T minutes, taken to complete a jigsaw puzzle can be modelled by a normal distribution with mean μ and
standard deviation 8 . 6.

It is found that 30 % of times taken to complete the jigsaw puzzle are longer than 36 . 8 minutes.

Use μ = 32 . 29 in the remainder of the question.

Six randomly chosen people complete the jigsaw puzzle.

By stating and solving an appropriate equation, show, correct to two decimal places, that μ = 32 . 29.

[4]
a.

Find the 86th percentile time to complete the jigsaw puzzle.

[2]
b.

Find the probability that a randomly chosen person will take more than 30 minutes to complete the jigsaw puzzle.

[2]
c.

Find the probability that at least five of them will take more than 30 minutes to complete the jigsaw puzzle.

[3]
d.

Having spent 25 minutes attempting the jigsaw puzzle, a randomly chosen person had not yet completed the
puzzle.

Find the probability that this person will take more than 30 minutes to complete the jigsaw puzzle.

[4]
e.

Markscheme
* This sample question was produced by experienced DP mathematics senior examiners to aid teachers in preparing for external
assessment in the new MAA course. There may be minor differences in formatting compared to formal exam papers.

T ~N μ , 8 . 62

P( T ≤ 36 . 8) = 0 . 7 (A1)
36 . 8 − μ
states a correct equation, for example, = 0 . 5244… A1
8.6

attempts to solve their equation (M1)

μ = 36 . 8 − 0 . 5244… ( 8 . 6) ( = 32 . 2902…) A1
 the solution to the equation is μ = 32 . 29, correct to two decimal places AG

[4 marks]

a.

let t0 . 86 be the 86th percentile

attempts to use the inverse normal feature of a GDC to find t0 . 86 (M1)

t0 . 86 = 41 . 6 (mins) A1

[2 marks]

b.

evidence of identifying the correct area under the normal curve (M1)

Note: Award M1 for a clearly labelled sketch.

P( T > 30) = 0 . 605 A1

[2 marks]

c.

let X represent the number of people out of the six who take more than 30 minutes to complete the jigsaw puzzle

X ~B 6, 0 . 6049… (M1)

for example, P X = 5 +P X =6 or 1 − P X ≤ 4 (A1)

P X ≥5 = 0 . 241 A1

[3 marks]

d.

recognizes that P T > 30 T ≥ 25 is required (M1)

Note: Award M1 for recognizing conditional probability.

P T > 30 ∩ T ≥ 25
= (A1)
P T ≥ 25

P( T > 30)
= = 0 . 6049… M1
P T ≥ 25 0 . 8016…

= 0 . 755 A1

[4 marks]

e.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
 d.
[N/A]
e.

All answers in this question should be given to four significant figures.

In a local weekly lottery, tickets cost $ 2 each.

In the first week of the lottery, a player will receive $ D for each ticket, with the probability distribution shown in the
following table. For example, the probability of a player receiving $ 10 is 0 . 03. The grand prize in the first week of the
lottery is $ 1000.

If nobody wins the grand prize in the first week, the probabilities will remain the same, but the value of the grand prize
will be $ 2000 in the second week, and the value of the grand prize will continue to double each week until it is won. All
other prize amounts will remain the same.

Find the value of c .

[2]
a.

Determine whether this lottery is a fair game in the first week. Justify your answer.

[4]
b.

Given that the grand prize is not won and the grand prize continues to double, write an expression in terms of n
for the value of the grand prize in the n th week of the lottery.

[2]
c.

The w th week is the first week in which the player is expected to make a profit. Ryan knows that if he buys a
lottery ticket in the w th week, his expected profit is $ p .

Find the value of p .

[7]
d.

Markscheme
considering that sum of probabilities is 1 (M1)

0 . 85 + c + 0 . 03 + 0 . 002 + 0 . 0001 = 1

0 . 1179 A1

[2 marks]

a.

valid attempt to find E( D ) (M1)

E( D ) = 0 × 0 . 85 + 2 × 0 . 1179 + 10 × 0 . 03 + 50 × 0 . 002 + 1000 × 0 . 0001

E( D ) = 0 . 7358 A1

No, not a fair game A1

for a fair game, E( D ) would be $ 2 OR players expected winnings are 1 . 264 R1

[4 marks]
 b.

recognition of GP with r = 2 (M1)

1000 × 2n − 1 OR 500( 2n ) A1

[2 marks]

c.

recognizing E( D ) > 2 (M1)

correct expression for w th week (or n th week) (A1)

0 × 0 . 85 + 2 × 0 . 1179 + 10 × 0 . 03 + 50 × 0 . 002 + 1000 × 2w − 1 × 0 . 0001

correct inequality (accept equation) (A1)

0 . 6358 + 1000 × 2w − 1 × 0 . 0001 > 2 OR 2n − 1 > 13 . 642

EITHER

n − 1 > 3 . 76998 OR w = 4 . 76998… (A1)

OR

E( D ) = 1 . 4358 in week 4 or E( D ) = 2 . 2358 in week 5 (A1)

THEN

w =5 A1

expected profit per ticket = their E( D ) − 2 (M1)

= 0 . 2358 A1

[7 marks]

d.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.

On one day 180 flights arrived at a particular airport. The distance travelled and the arrival status for each incoming
flight was recorded. The flight was then classified as on time, slightly delayed, or heavily delayed.

The results are shown in the following table.

A χ2 test is carried out at the 10 % significance level to determine whether the arrival status of incoming flights is
independent of the distance travelled.

The critical value for this test is 7.779.

A flight is chosen at random from the 180 recorded flights.

State the alternative hypothesis.

[1]
a.

Calculate the expected frequency of flights travelling at most 500 km and arriving slightly delayed.

[2]
b.

Write down the number of degrees of freedom.

[1]
c.

Write down the χ2 statistic.

[2]
d.i.

Write down the associated p-value.

[1]
d.ii.

State, with a reason, whether you would reject the null hypothesis.

[2]
e.

Write down the probability that this flight arrived on time.

[2]
f.

Given that this flight was not heavily delayed, find the probability that it travelled between 500 km and 5000 km.

[2]
g.

Two flights are chosen at random from those which were slightly delayed.

Find the probability that each of these flights travelled at least 5000 km.

[3]
h.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

The arrival status is dependent on the distance travelled by the incoming flight (A1)

Note: Accept “associated” or “not independent”.

[1 mark]

a.

60 × 45 OR 60 × 45 × 180 (M1)
180 180 180

Note: Award (M1) for correct substitution into expected value formula.

= 15 (A1) (G2)

[2 marks]

b.

4 (A1)

Note: Award (A0) if “2 + 2 = 4” is seen.

[1 mark]

c.

9.55 (9.54671…) (G2)

Note: Award (G1) for an answer of 9.54.

[2 marks]

d.i.

0.0488 (0.0487961…) (G1)

[1 mark]

d.ii.

Reject the Null Hypothesis (A1)(ft)

Note: Follow through from their hypothesis in part (a).

9.55 (9.54671…) > 7.779 (R1)(ft)

OR

0.0488 (0.0487961…) < 0.1 (R1)(ft)

Note: Do not award (A1)(ft)(R0)(ft). Follow through from part (d). Award (R1)(ft) for a correct comparison, (A1)
(ft) for a consistent conclusion with the answers to parts (a) and (d). Award (R1)(ft) for χ2calc > χ2crit , provided the
calculated value is explicitly seen in part (d)(i).

[2 marks]

e.
52 13
0.289, , 28.9 % (A1)(A1) (G2)
180 45

Note: Award (A1) for correct numerator, (A1) for correct denominator.

[2 marks]

f.
35
0.361, 36.1 % (A1)(A1) (G2)
97

Note: Award (A1) for correct numerator, (A1) for correct denominator.

[2 marks]

g.

14 × 13 (A1)(M1)
45 44

Note: Award (A1) for two correct fractions and (M1) for multiplying their two fractions.

= 182 0.0919, 91 , 0.091919…, 9.19 % (A1) (G2)

1980 990
 [3 marks]

h.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.i.
[N/A]
d.ii.
[N/A]
e.
[N/A]
f.
[N/A]
g.
[N/A]
h.

The flight times, T minutes, between two cities can be modelled by a normal distribution with a mean of 75 minutes and
a standard deviation of σ minutes.

On a particular day, there are 64 flights scheduled between these two cities.

Given that 2 % of the flight times are longer than 82 minutes, find the value of σ .

[3]
a.

Find the probability that a randomly selected flight will have a flight time of more than 80 minutes.

[2]
b.

Given that a flight between the two cities takes longer than 80 minutes, find the probability that it takes less than
82 minutes.

[4]
c.

Find the expected number of flights that will have a flight time of more than 80 minutes.

[3]
d.

Find the probability that more than 6 of the flights on this particular day will have a flight time of more than 80
minutes.

[3]
e.

Markscheme
use of inverse normal to find z -score (M1)

z = 2 . 0537…

2 . 0537… = 82 −
σ
75 (A1)

σ = 3 . 408401…

σ = 3 . 41 A1

[3 marks]
 a.

evidence of identifying the correct area under the normal curve (M1)

P( T > 80) = 0 . 071193…

P( T > 80) = 0 . 0712 A1

[2 marks]

b.

recognition that P( 80 < T < 82) is required (M1)

P( 80 < T < 82) 0 . 051193…

P( T < 82 T > 80) = = (M1)(A1)
P( T > 80) 0 . 071193…

= 0 . 719075…

= 0 . 719 A1

[4 marks]

c.

recognition of binomial probability (M1)

X ~B 64, 0 . 071193… or E X = 64 × 0 . 071193… (A1)

E X = 4 . 556353…

E X = 4 . 56 (flights) A1

[3 marks]

d.

P X >6 =P X ≥7 =1−P X ≤6 (M1)

= 1 − 0 . 83088… (A1)

= 0 . 1691196…

= 0 . 169 A1

[3 marks]

e.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.
[N/A]
e.

The following table shows the data collected from an experiment.

The data is also represented on the following scatter diagram.

The relationship between x and y can be modelled by the regression line of y on x with equation y = ax + b , where
a, b ∈ ℝ .

Write down the value of a and the value of b .

[2]
a.

Use this model to predict the value of y when x = 18.

[2]
b.
¯ ¯
Write down the value of x and the value of y .

[1]
c.

Draw the line of best fit on the scatter diagram.

[2]
d.

Markscheme
a = 0 . 433156…, b = 4 . 50265…

a = 0 . 433, b = 4 . 50 A1A1

[2 marks]

a.

attempt to substitute x = 18 into their equation (M1)

y = 0 . 433 × 18 + 4 . 50

= 12 . 2994…

= 12 . 3 A1

[2 marks]

b.
 ¯ ¯
x = 15, y = 11 A1

[1 mark]

c.

A1A1

Note: Award marks as follows:

A1 for a straight line going through 15, 11

A1 for intercepting the y -axis between their b ± 1 . 5 (when their line is extended), which includes all the data
for 3 . 3 ≤ x ≤ 25 . 3.

If the candidate does not use a ruler, award A0A1 where appropriate.

[2 marks]

d.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.

At a café, the waiting time between ordering and receiving a cup of coffee is dependent upon the number of customers
who have already ordered their coffee and are waiting to receive it.

Sarah, a regular customer, visited the café on five consecutive days. The following table shows the number of
customers, x , ahead of Sarah who have already ordered and are waiting to receive their coffee and Sarah’s waiting
time, y minutes.

The relationship between x and y can be modelled by the regression line of y on x with equation y = ax + b .

Find the value of a and the value of b .

[2]
a.i.
 Write down the value of Pearson’s product-moment correlation coefficient, r .

[1]
a.ii.

Interpret, in context, the value of a found in part (a)(i).

[1]
b.

On another day, Sarah visits the café to order a coffee. Seven customers have already ordered their coffee and are
waiting to receive it.

Use the result from part (a)(i) to estimate Sarah’s waiting time to receive her coffee.

[2]
c.

Markscheme
a = 0 . 805084… and b = 2 . 88135…

a = 0 . 805 and b = 2 . 88 A1A1

[2 marks]

a.i.

r = 0 . 97777…

r = 0 . 978 A1

[1 mark]

a.ii.

a represents the (average) increase in waiting time (0 . 805 mins) per additional customer (waiting to receive their
coffee) R1

[1 mark]

b.

attempt to substitute x = 7 into their equation (M1)

8 . 51693…

8 . 52 (mins) A1

[2 marks]

c.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.i.
[N/A]
a.ii.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.

The number of hours spent exercising each week by a group of students is shown in the following table.
The median is 4 . 5 hours.

Find the value of x .

[2]
a.

Find the standard deviation.

[2]
b.

Markscheme
EITHER

recognising that half the total frequency is 10 (may be seen in an ordered list or indicated on the frequency table)
(A1)

OR

5+1+4=3+x (A1)

OR

f = 20 (A1)

THEN

x =7 A1

[2 marks]

a.

METHOD 1

1 . 58429…

1 . 58 A2

METHOD 2

EITHER

5× 2 − 4.3 2+1× 3 − 4.3 2+4× 4 − 4.3 2+3× 5 − 4.3 2+7× 6 − 4.3 2

σ2 = = 2 . 51 (A1)
20

OR

5 × 22 + 1 × 32 + 4 × 42 + 3 × 52 + 7 × 62
σ2 = − 4 . 32 = 2 . 51 (A1)
20

THEN
 σ= 2 . 51 = 1 . 58429…

= 1 . 58 A1

[2 marks]

b.

Examiners report
Most candidates attempted both parts, with varying levels of success, particularly in part (b).

In part (a), the most successful approach seen was from candidates who made an ordered list to visualize the given
data set, which enabled them to recognise either the number of sixes required for the median to lie at 4.5, or the total
frequency. The most common error was to mistake the median for the mean, which led to a non-integer value of
x = 9 . 67.

Part (b) proved to be more challenging, with many candidates either not taking into account the frequency of the
exercise time when generating the summary statistics or treating frequency as an additional variable and using two-
variable statistics on their GDC. With both, this led to σ = 1 . 41 being the most common wrong answer seen. A few
candidates gave the sample standard deviation rather than the population standard deviation. A number of
candidates attempted to use the standard deviation formula but were usually not successful. This formula is not in
the course, although it can be obtained in the HL section of the formula booklet.

a.
[N/A]
b.

Sila High School has 110 students. They each take exactly one language class from a choice of English, Spanish or
Chinese. The following table shows the number of female and male students in the three different language classes.

A χ 2 test was carried out at the 5 % significance level to analyse the relationship between gender and student choice of
language class.

Use your graphic display calculator to write down

The critical value at the 5 % significance level for this test is 5.99.

One student is chosen at random from this school.

Another student is chosen at random from this school.

Write down the null hypothesis, H0 , for this test.

[1]
a.

State the number of degrees of freedom.

[1]
b.

the expected frequency of female students who chose to take the Chinese class.

[1]
c.i.

the χ 2 statistic.

[2]
c.ii.
 State whether or not H0 should be rejected. Justify your statement.

[2]
d.

Find the probability that the student does not take the Spanish class.

[2]
e.i.

Find the probability that neither of the two students take the Spanish class.

[3]
e.ii.

Find the probability that at least one of the two students is female.

[3]
e.iii.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

(H0:) (choice of) language is independent of gender (A1)

Note: Accept “there is no association between language (choice) and gender”. Accept “language (choice) is not
dependent on gender”. Do not accept “not related” or “not correlated” or “not influenced”.

[1 mark]

a.

2 (AG)

[1 mark]

b.

16.4 (16.4181…) (G1)

[1 mark]

c.i.
2 = 8.69 (8.68507…)
χcalc (G2)

[2 marks]

c.ii.

(we) reject the null hypothesis (A1)(ft)

8.68507… > 5.99 (R1)(ft)

Note: Follow through from part (c)(ii). Accept “do not accept” in place of “reject.” Do not award (A1)(ft)(R0).

OR

(we) reject the null hypothesis (A1)

0.0130034 < 0.05 (R1)

Note: Accept “do not accept” in place of “reject.” Do not award (A1)(ft)(R0).

[2 marks]

d.

88 4 , 0.8, 80% (A1)(A1)(G2)

110 5

Note: Award (A1) for correct numerator, (A1) for correct denominator.

[2 marks]
 e.i.
88 87
× (M1)(M1)
110 109

Note: Award (M1) for multiplying two fractions. Award (M1) for multiplying their correct fractions.

OR
46 45 +2 46 42 + 42 41 (M1)(M1)
110 109 110 109 110 109

Note: Award (M1) for correct products; (M1) for adding 4 products.
348
0.639 0.638532…, , 63.9% (A1)(ft)(G2)
545

Note: Follow through from their answer to part (e)(i).

[3 marks]

e.ii.

1 − 67 × 66 (M1)(M1)
110 109

Note: Award (M1) for multiplying two correct fractions. Award (M1) for subtracting their product of two fractions
from 1.

OR

43 × 42 + 43 × 67 + 67 × 43 (M1)(M1)
110 109 110 109 110 109

Note: Award (M1) for correct products; (M1) for adding three products.

0.631 0.631192…, 63.1% , 344 (A1)(G2)

545

[3 marks]

e.iii.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.i.
[N/A]
c.ii.
[N/A]
d.
[N/A]
e.i.
[N/A]
e.ii.
[N/A]
e.iii.

The manager of a folder factory recorded the number of folders produced by the factory (in thousands) and the
production costs (in thousand Euros), for six consecutive months.

Every month the factory sells all the folders produced. Each folder is sold for 2.99 Euros.

Draw a scatter diagram for this data. Use a scale of 2 cm for 5000 folders on the horizontal axis and 2 cm for 10
000 Euros on the vertical axis.

[4]
a.
 Write down, for this set of data the mean number of folders produced, x¯ ;

[1]
b.i.
¯
Write down, for this set of data the mean production cost, C .

[1]
b.ii.
¯
Label the point M(x¯ , C ) on the scatter diagram.

[1]
c.

Use your graphic display calculator to find the Pearson’s product–moment correlation coefficient, r .

[2]
d.

State a reason why the regression line C on x is appropriate to model the relationship between these variables.

[1]
e.

Use your graphic display calculator to find the equation of the regression line C on x .

[2]
f.

Draw the regression line C on x on the scatter diagram.

[2]
g.

Use the equation of the regression line to estimate the least number of folders that the factory needs to sell in a
month to exceed its production cost for that month.

[4]
h.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

(A4)

Notes: Award (A1) for correct scales and labels. Award (A0) if axes are reversed and follow through for their
points.

Award (A3) for all six points correctly plotted, (A2) for four or five points correctly plotted, (A1) for two or three
points correctly plotted.

If graph paper has not been used, award at most (A1)(A0)(A0)(A0). If accuracy cannot be determined award (A0)
(A0)(A0)(A0).

[4 marks]

a.

(x¯ = ) 21 (A1)(G1)

[1 mark]

b.i.
¯
(C = ) 55 (A1)(G1)

Note: Accept (i) 21000 and (ii) 55000 seen.

[1 mark]

b.ii.

their mean point M labelled on diagram (A1)(ft)(G1)

Note: Follow through from part (b).

Award (A1)(ft) if their part (b) is correct and their attempt at plotting (21, 55) in part (a) is labelled M.

If graph paper not used, award (A1) if (21, 55) is labelled. If their answer from part (b) is incorrect and accuracy
cannot be determined, award (A0).

[1 mark]

c.

(r = ) 0.990 (0.989568…) (G2)

Note: Award (G2) for 0.99 seen. Award (G1) for 0.98 or 0.989. Do not accept 1.00.

[2 marks]

d.

the correlation coefficient/r is (very) close to 1 (R1)(ft)

OR

the correlation is (very) strong (R1)(ft)

Note: Follow through from their answer to part (d).

OR

the position of the data points on the scatter graphs suggests that the tendency is linear (R1)(ft)

Note: Follow through from their scatter graph in part (a).

[1 mark]

e.

C = 1.94x + 14.2 (C = 1.94097…x + 14.2395…) (G2)

Notes: Award (G1) for 1.94x , (G1) for 14.2.

Award a maximum of (G0)(G1) if the answer is not an equation.

Award (G0)(G1)(ft) if gradient and C -intercept are swapped in the equation.

[2 marks]

f.

straight line through their M(21, 55) (A1)(ft)

C -intercept of the line (or extension of line) passing through 14.2 ( ± 1) (A1)(ft)
 Notes: Follow through from part (f). In the event that the regression line is not straight (ruler not used), award
(A0)(A1)(ft) if line passes through both their (21, 55) and (0, 14.2), otherwise award (A0)(A0). The line must pass
through the midpoint, not near this point. If it is not clear award (A0).

If graph paper is not used, award at most (A1)(ft)(A0).

[2 marks]

g.

2.99x = 1.94097…x + 14.2395… (M1)(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for 2.99x seen and (M1) for equating to their equation of the regression line. Accept an
inequality sign.

Accept a correct graphical method involving their part (f) and 2.99x .

Accept C = 2.99x drawn on their scatter graph.

x = 13.5739… (this step may be implied by their final answer) (A1)(ft)(G2)

13 600 (13 574) (A1)(ft)(G3)

Note: Follow through from their answer to (f). Use of 3 sf gives an answer of 13 524.

Award (G2) for 13.5739… or 13.524 or a value which rounds to 13500 seen without workings.

Award the last (A1)(ft) for correct multiplication by 1000 and an answer satisfying revenue > their production cost.

Accept 13.6 thousand (folders).

[4 marks]

h.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.i.
[N/A]
b.ii.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.
[N/A]
e.
[N/A]
f.
[N/A]
g.
[N/A]
h.

A biased four-sided die is rolled. The following table gives the probability of each score.

Find the value of k.

 [2]
a.

Calculate the expected value of the score.

[2]
b.

The die is rolled 80 times. On how many rolls would you expect to obtain a three?

[2]
c.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

evidence of summing to 1 (M1)

eg 0.28 + k + 1.5 + 0.3 = 1, 0.73 + k = 1

k = 0.27 A1 N2

[2 marks]

a.

correct substitution into formula for E (X) (A1)

eg 1 × 0.28 + 2 × k + 3 × 0.15 + 4 × 0.3

E (X) = 2.47 (exact) A1 N2

[2 marks]

b.

valid approach (M1)

eg np, 80 × 0.15

12 A1 N2

[2 marks]

c.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.

The following table shows the hand lengths and the heights of five athletes on a sports team.

The relationship between x and y can be modelled by the regression line with equation y = ax + b.

Find the value of a and of b.

[3]
a.i.

Write down the correlation coefficient.

[1]
a.ii.
 Another athlete on this sports team has a hand length of 21.5 cm. Use the regression equation to estimate the
height of this athlete.

[2]
b.

Markscheme
evidence of set up (M1)

eg correct value for a or b or r (seen in (ii)) or r2 (= 0.973)

9.91044, −31.3194

a = 9.91, b = −31.3, y = 9.91x − 31.3 A1A1 N3

[3 marks]

a.i.

0.986417

r = 0.986 A1 N1

[1 mark]

a.ii.

substituting x = 21.5 into their equation (M1)

eg 9.91(21.5) − 31.3

181.755

182 (cm) A1 N2

[2 marks]

b.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.i.
[N/A]
a.ii.
[N/A]
b.

A survey was conducted on a group of people. The first question asked how many pets they each own. The results are
summarized in the following table.

The second question asked each member of the group to state their age and preferred pet. The data obtained is
organized in the following table.
A χ 2 test is carried out at the 10 % significance level.

Write down the total number of people, from this group, who are pet owners.

[1]
a.

Write down the modal number of pets.

[1]
b.

For these data, write down the median number of pets.

[1]
c.i.

For these data, write down the lower quartile.

[1]
c.ii.

For these data, write down the upper quartile.

[1]
c.iii.

Write down the ratio of teenagers to non-teenagers in its simplest form.

[1]
d.

State the null hypothesis.

[1]
e.i.

State the alternative hypothesis.

[1]
e.ii.

Write down the number of degrees of freedom for this test.

[1]
f.

Calculate the expected number of teenagers that prefer cats.

[2]
g.

Use your graphic display calculator to find the p -value for this test.

[2]
h.

State the conclusion for this test. Give a reason for your answer.

[2]
i.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.
140 (A1)

[1 mark]

a.

1 (A1)

[1 mark]

b.

2 (A1)

[1 mark]

c.i.

1 (A1)

[1 mark]

c.ii.

3 (A1)

[1 mark]

c.iii.

17:15 OR 17 (A1)
15

Note: Award (A0) for 85:75 or 1.13:1.

[1 mark]

d.

preferred pet is independent of “whether or not the respondent was a teenager" or "age category” (A1)

Note: Accept there is no association between pet and age. Do not accept “not related” or “not correlated” or
“influenced”.

[1 mark]

e.i.

preferred pet is not independent of age (A1)(ft)

Note: Follow through from part (e)(i) i.e. award (A1)(ft) if their alternative hypothesis is the negation of their null
hypothesis. Accept “associated” or “dependent”.

[1 mark]

e.ii.

3 (A1)

[1 mark]

f.
85 × 55 OR 85 × 55 × 160 (M1)
160 160 160

29.2 (29.2187…) (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]

g.

0.208 (0.208093…) (G2)

[2 marks]

h.

0.208 > 0.1 (R1)

 accept null hypothesis OR fail to reject null hypothesis (A1)(ft)

Note: Award (R1) for a correct comparison of their p -value to the significance level, award (A1)(ft) for the correct
result from that comparison. Accept “ p -value > 0.1” as part of the comparison but only if their p -value is explicitly
seen in part (h). Follow through from their answer to part (h). Do not award (R0)(A1).

[2 marks]

i.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.i.
[N/A]
c.ii.
[N/A]
c.iii.
[N/A]
d.
[N/A]
e.i.
[N/A]
e.ii.
[N/A]
f.
[N/A]
g.
[N/A]
h.
[N/A]
i.

A transportation company owns 30 buses. The distance that each bus has travelled since being purchased by the
company is recorded. The cumulative frequency curve for these data is shown.
It is known that 8 buses travelled more than m kilometres.

Find the number of buses that travelled a distance between 15000 and 20000 kilometres.

[2]
a.

Use the cumulative frequency curve to find the median distance.

[2]
b.i.

Use the cumulative frequency curve to find the lower quartile.

[1]
b.ii.

Use the cumulative frequency curve to find the upper quartile.

[1]
b.iii.

Hence write down the interquartile range.

[1]
c.

Write down the percentage of buses that travelled a distance greater than the upper quartile.

[1]
d.

Find the number of buses that travelled a distance less than or equal to 12 000 km.

[1]
e.

Find the value of m.

[2]
f.

The smallest distance travelled by one of the buses was 2500 km.
The longest distance travelled by one of the buses was 23 000 km.
 On graph paper, draw a box-and-whisker diagram for these data. Use a scale of 2 cm to represent 5000 km.

[4]
g.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

28 − 20 (A1)

Note: Award (A1) for 28 and 20 seen.

8 (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]

a.

13500 (G2)

Note: Accept an answer in the range 13500 to 13750.

[2 marks]

b.i.

10000 (G1)

Note: Accept an answer in the range 10000 to 10250.

[1 mark]

b.ii.

16000 (G1)

Note: Accept an answer in the range 16000 to 16250.

[1 mark]

b.iii.

6000 (A1)(ft)

Note: Follow through from their part (b)(ii) and (iii).

[1 mark]

c.

25% (A1)

[1 mark]

d.

11 (G1)

[1 mark]

e.

30 − 8 OR 22 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for subtracting 30 − 8 or 22 seen.

15750 (A1)(G2)

Note: Accept 15750 ± 250.

[2 marks]

f.
 (A1)(A1)(A1)(A1)

Note: Award (A1) for correct label and scale; accept “distance” or “km” for label.

(A1)(ft) for correct median,

(A1)(ft) for correct quartiles and box,
(A1) for endpoints at 2500 and 23 000 joined to box by straight lines.
Accept ±250 for the median, quartiles and endpoints.
Follow through from their part (b).
The final (A1) is not awarded if the line goes through the box.

[4 marks]

g.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.i.
[N/A]
b.ii.
[N/A]
b.iii.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.
[N/A]
e.
[N/A]
f.
[N/A]
g.

The random variable X follows a normal distribution with mean μ and standard deviation σ .

The avocados grown on a farm have weights, in grams, that are normally distributed with mean μ and standard
deviation σ . Avocados are categorized as small, medium, large or premium, according to their weight. The following
table shows the probability an avocado grown on the farm is classified as small, medium, large or premium.

The maximum weight of a small avocado is 106 . 2 grams.

The minimum weight of a premium avocado is 182 . 6 grams.

A supermarket purchases all the avocados from the farm that weigh more than 106 . 2 grams.

Find the probability that an avocado chosen at random from this purchase is categorized as

Find P μ − 1 . 5σ < X < μ + 1 . 5σ .

[3]
a.

Find the value of μ and of σ .

 [5]
b.

medium.

[2]
c.i.

large.

[1]
c.ii.

premium.

[1]
c.iii.

The selling prices of the different categories of avocado at this supermarket are shown in the following table:

The supermarket pays the farm $ 200 for the avocados and assumes it will then sell them in exactly the same
proportion as purchased from the farm.

According to this model, find the minimum number of avocados that must be sold so that the net profit for the
supermarket is at least $ 438.

[4]
d.

Markscheme
μ − 1 . 5σ − μ X − μ μ + 1 . 5σ − μ
P σ < σ < σ (M1)

P −1 . 5 < Z < 1 . 5 OR 1 − 2 × P Z < − 1 . 5 (A1)

P −1 . 5 < Z < 1 . 5 = 0 . 866385…

P μ − 1 . 5σ < X < μ + 1 . 5σ = 0 . 866 A1

Note: Do not award any marks for use of their answers from part (b).

[3 marks]

a.

z1 = − 1 . 75068… and z2 = 1 . 30468… (seen anywhere) (A1)

correct equations (A1)(A1)

106 . 2 − μ
σ = − 1 . 75068…, μ + 1 . 30468…σ = 182 . 6

attempt to solve their equations involving z values (M1)

μ = 149 . 976 . . . , σ = 25 . 0051…

μ = 150, σ = 25 . 0 A1

[5 marks]

b.

new sample space is 96 % (may be seen in (ii) or (iii)) (M1)

 P medium | not small OR 0 . 576
0 . 96

P( Medium) = 0 . 6 A1

[2 marks]

c.i.

P Large = 0.3 A1

[1 mark]

c.ii.

P( Premium) = 0 . 1 A1

[1 mark]

c.iii.

attempt to express revenue from avocados (M1)

1 . 1 × 0 . 6 + 1 . 29 × 0 . 3 + 1 . 96 × 0 . 1 OR 1 . 243n

correct inequality or equation for net profit in terms of n (A1)

1 . 1 × 0 . 6n + 1 . 29 × 0 . 3n + 1 . 96 × 0 . 1n − 200 ≥ 438 OR 1 . 243n − 200 = 438

attempt to solve the inequality (M1)

sketch OR n = 513 . 274 . . .

n = 514 A1

Note: Only award follow through in part (d) for 3 probabilities which add up to 1. FT of probabilities from c) that do
not add up to 1 should only be awarded M marks, where appropriate, in d).

[4 marks]

d.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.i.
[N/A]
c.ii.
[N/A]
c.iii.
[N/A]
d.

Fiona walks from her house to a bus stop where she gets a bus to school. Her time, W minutes, to walk to the bus stop
is normally distributed with W ~N 12, 32 .

Fiona always leaves her house at 07:15. The first bus that she can get departs at 07:30.

The length of time, B minutes, of the bus journey to Fiona’s school is normally distributed with B ~N 50, σ 2 . The
probability that the bus journey takes less than 60 minutes is 0 . 941.
If Fiona misses the first bus, there is a second bus which departs at 07:45. She must arrive at school by 08:30 to be on
time. Fiona will not arrive on time if she misses both buses. The variables W and B are independent.

Find the probability that it will take Fiona between 15 minutes and 30 minutes to walk to the bus stop.

[2]
a.

Find σ .

[3]
b.

Find the probability that the bus journey takes less than 45 minutes.

[2]
c.

Find the probability that Fiona will arrive on time.

[5]
d.

This year, Fiona will go to school on 183 days.

Calculate the number of days Fiona is expected to arrive on time.

[2]
e.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

0 . 158655

P 15 < W < 30 = 0 . 159 A2 N2

[2 marks]

a.

finding standardized value for 60 (A1)

eg z = 1 . 56322

correct substitution using their z -value (A1)

eg 60 − 50 = 1 . 56322, 60 − 50 = σ
σ 1 . 56322
6 . 39703

σ = 6 . 40 A1 N3

[3 marks]

b.

0 . 217221

P B < 45 = 0 .217 A2 N2

[2 marks]

c.

valid attempt to find one possible way of being on time (do not penalize incorrect use of strict inequality signs)
(M1)

eg W ≤ 15 and B < 60, 15 < W ≤ 30 and B < 45

correct calculation for P W ≤ 15 and B < 60 (seen anywhere) (A1)

eg 0 . 841 × 0 . 941, 0 . 7917

correct calculation for P 15 < W ≤ 30 and B < 45 (seen anywhere) (A1)

eg 0 . 159 × 0 . 217, 0 . 03446

 correct working (A1)

eg 0 . 841 × 0 . 941 + 0 . 159 × 0 . 217, 0 . 7917 + 0 . 03446

0 . 826168

P (on time) = 0 . 826 A1 N2

[5 marks]

d.

recognizing binomial with n = 183, p = 0 . 826168 (M1)

eg X ~B 183, 0 . 826

151 . 188 (151 . 158 from 3 sf )

151 A1 N2

[2 marks]

e.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.
[N/A]
e.

Let f (x ) = − 0.5x 4 + 3x 2 + 2x . The following diagram shows part of the graph of f .

There are x -intercepts at x = 0 and at x = p . There is a maximum at A where x = a , and a point of inflexion at B where
x = b.

Find the value of p .

[2]
a.

Write down the coordinates of A.

[2]
b.i.

Write down the rate of change of f at A.

[1]
b.ii.

Find the coordinates of B.

[4]
c.i.

Find the the rate of change of f at B.

[3]
c.ii.

Let R be the region enclosed by the graph of f , the x -axis, the line x = b and the line x = a . The region R is
rotated 360° about the x -axis. Find the volume of the solid formed.
 [3]
d.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

evidence of valid approach (M1)

eg f (x ) = 0, y = 0

2.73205

p = 2.73 A1 N2

[2 marks]

a.

1.87938, 8.11721

(1.88, 8.12) A2 N2

[2 marks]

b.i.

rate of change is 0 (do not accept decimals) A1 N1

[1 marks]

b.ii.

METHOD 1 (using GDC)

valid approach M1

eg f ″ = 0, max/min on f ′ , x = − 1

sketch of either f ′ or f ″ , with max/min or root (respectively) (A1)

x =1 A1 N1

Substituting their x value into f (M1)

eg f (1)

y = 4.5 A1 N1

METHOD 2 (analytical)

f ″ = − 6x 2 + 6 A1

setting f ″ =0 (M1)

x =1 A1 N1

substituting their x value into f (M1)

eg f (1)

y = 4.5 A1 N1

[4 marks]

c.i.

recognizing rate of change is f ′ (M1)

eg y ′ , f ′ (1)

rate of change is 6 A1 N2

[3 marks]

c.ii.

attempt to substitute either limits or the function into formula (M1)

 involving f 2 (accept absence of π and/or dx )
1.88
eg π ( − 0.5x 4 + 3x 2 + 2x )2dx , f2
1

128.890

volume = 129 A2 N3

[3 marks]

d.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.i.
[N/A]
b.ii.
[N/A]
c.i.
[N/A]
c.ii.
[N/A]
d.

A group of 7 adult men wanted to see if there was a relationship between their Body Mass Index (BMI) and their waist
size. Their waist sizes, in centimetres, were recorded and their BMI calculated. The following table shows the results.

The relationship between x and y can be modelled by the regression equation y = ax + b .

Write down the value of a and of b .

[3]
a.i.

Find the correlation coefficient.

[1]
a.ii.

Use the regression equation to estimate the BMI of an adult man whose waist size is 95 cm.

[2]
b.

Markscheme
valid approach (M1)

eg correct value for a or b (or for correct r or r 2 = 0.955631 seen in (ii))

0.141120, 11.1424

a = 0.141, b = 11.1 A1A1 N3

[3 marks]

a.i.

0.977563

r = 0.978 A1 N1

[1 mark]
 a.ii.

correct substitution into their regression equation (A1)

eg 0.141(95) + 11.1

24.5488

24.5 A1 N2

[2 marks]

b.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.i.
[N/A]
a.ii.
[N/A]
b.

A company produces bags of sugar whose masses, in grams, can be modelled by a normal distribution with mean 1000
and standard deviation 3 . 5. A bag of sugar is rejected for sale if its mass is less than 995 grams.

Find the probability that a bag selected at random is rejected.

[2]
a.

Estimate the number of bags which will be rejected from a random sample of 100 bags.

[1]
b.

Given that a bag is not rejected, find the probability that it has a mass greater than 1005 grams.

[3]
c.

Markscheme
Note: In this question, do not penalise incorrect use of strict inequality signs.

Let X = mass of a bag of sugar

evidence of identifying the correct area (M1)

P X < 995 = 0 . 0765637…

= 0 . 0766 A1

[2 marks]

a.

Note: In this question, do not penalise incorrect use of strict inequality signs.

Let X = mass of a bag of sugar

0 . 0766 × 100

≈8 A1

Note: Accept 7 . 66.

 [1 mark]

b.

Note: In this question, do not penalise incorrect use of strict inequality signs.

Let X = mass of a bag of sugar

recognition that P X > 1005 X ≥ 995 is required (M1)

P X ≥ 995 ∩ X > 1005

P X ≥ 995

P X > 1005
(A1)
P X ≥ 995

0 . 0765637… = 0 . 0765637…
1 − 0 . 0765637… 0 . 923436…

= 0 . 0829 A1

[3 marks]

c.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.

There are three fair six-sided dice. Each die has two green faces, two yellow faces and two red faces.

All three dice are rolled.

Ted plays a game using these dice. The rules are:

Having a turn means to roll all three dice.

He wins $10 for each green face rolled and adds this to his winnings.
After a turn Ted can either:
end the game (and keep his winnings), or
have another turn (and try to increase his winnings).
If two or more red faces are rolled in a turn, all winnings are lost and the game ends.

The random variable D ($) represents how much is added to his winnings after a turn.

The following table shows the distribution for D , where $ w represents his winnings in the game so far.

Find the probability of rolling exactly one red face.

[2]
a.i.

Find the probability of rolling two or more red faces.

[3]
a.ii.
 Show that, after a turn, the probability that Ted adds exactly $10 to his winnings is 1 .
3
[5]
b.

Write down the value of x .

[1]
c.i.

Hence, find the value of y .

[2]
c.ii.

Ted will always have another turn if he expects an increase to his winnings.

Find the least value of w for which Ted should end the game instead of having another turn.

[3]
d.

Markscheme
valid approach to find P(one red) (M1)

1 2 2 3
eg n Ca × p a × q n − a , B( n , p ) , 3 ,
3 3 1

listing all possible cases for exactly one red (may be indicated on tree diagram)

4
P(1 red) = 0.444 = [0.444, 0.445] A1 N2
9

[3 marks] [5 maximum for parts (a.i) and (a.ii)]

a.i.

valid approach (M1)

1
eg P( X = 2) + P( X = 3), 1 − P( X ≤ 1), binomcdf 3, , 2, 3
3

correct working (A1)

2 1 2 3 4
eg + , 0.222 + 0.037 , 1 − −
9 27 3 9

0.259259
7
P(at least two red) = 0.259 = A1 N3
27

[3 marks] [5 maximum for parts (a.i) and (a.ii)]

a.ii.

recognition that winning $10 means rolling exactly one green (M1)

recognition that winning $10 also means rolling at most 1 red (M1)

eg “cannot have 2 or more reds”

correct approach A1

eg P(1G ∩ 0R) + P(1G ∩ 1R), P(1G) − P(1G ∩ 2R),

“one green and two yellows or one of each colour”

Note: Because this is a “show that” question, do not award this A1 for purely numerical expressions.

one correct probability for their approach (A1)

2 2
eg 3 1 1 , 6,3 1 2 , 1, 2
3 3 27 3 3 9 9

correct working leading to 1 A1

3
 eg 3 + 6 , 12 − 3 , 1 + 2
27 27 27 27 9 9

probability = 1 AG N0
3

[5 marks]

b.

x = 7 , 0.259 (check FT from (a)(ii)) A1 N1

27

[1 mark]

c.i.

evidence of summing probabilities to 1 (M1)

eg = 1, x + y + 1 + 2 + 1 = 1, 1 − 7 − 9 − 6 − 1
3 9 27 27 27 27 27

0.148147 (0.148407 if working with their x value to 3 sf)

y = 4 (exact), 0.148 A1 N2
27

[2 marks]

c.ii.

correct substitution into the formula for expected value (A1)

eg − w ⋅ 7 + 10 ⋅ 9 + 20 ⋅ 6 + 30 ⋅ 1
27 27 27 27

correct critical value (accept inequality) A1

eg w = 34.2857 = 240 , w > 34.2857

7

$40 A1 N2

[3 marks]

d.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.i.
[N/A]
a.ii.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.i.
[N/A]
c.ii.
[N/A]
d.

The length, X mm, of a certain species of seashell is normally distributed with mean 25 and variance, σ 2 .

The probability that X is less than 24.15 is 0.1446.

A random sample of 10 seashells is collected on a beach. Let Y represent the number of seashells with lengths greater
than 26 mm.

Find P(24.15 < X < 25).

[2]
a.

Find σ , the standard deviation of X.

[3]
 b.i.

Hence, find the probability that a seashell selected at random has a length greater than 26 mm.

[2]
b.ii.

Find E(Y).

[3]
c.

Find the probability that exactly three of these seashells have a length greater than 26 mm.

[2]
d.

A seashell selected at random has a length less than 26 mm.

Find the probability that its length is between 24.15 mm and 25 mm.

[3]
e.

Markscheme
attempt to use the symmetry of the normal curve (M1)

eg diagram, 0.5 − 0.1446

P(24.15 < X < 25) = 0.3554 A1

[2 marks]

a.

use of inverse normal to find z score (M1)

z = −1.0598

correct substitution 24.15σ− 25 = − 1.0598 (A1)

σ = 0.802 A1

[3 marks]

b.i.

P(X > 26) = 0.106 (M1)A1

[2 marks]

b.ii.

recognizing binomial probability (M1)

E(Y) = 10 × 0.10621 (A1)

= 1.06 A1

[3 marks]

c.

P(Y = 3) (M1)

= 0.0655 A1

[2 marks]

d.

recognizing conditional probability (M1)

correct substitution A1
0.3554
1 − 0.10621
 = 0.398 A1

[3 marks]

e.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.i.
[N/A]
b.ii.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.
[N/A]
e.

Events A and B are independent and P A = 3P B .

Given that P A ∪ B = 0 . 68, find P( B ) .

Markscheme
P A ∪B =P A + P( B ) − P A ∩ B = 0 . 68

substitution of P A · P( B ) for P A ∩ B in P A ∪ B (M1)

P A + P( B ) − P A P( B ) ( = 0 . 68)

substitution of 3P( B ) for P A (M1)

3P( B ) + P( B ) − 3P( B ) P( B ) = 0 . 68 (or equivalent) (A1)

Note: The first two M marks are independent of each other.

attempts to solve their quadratic equation (M1)

P B = 0 . 2, 1 . 133… 1, 17
5 15

P B = 0.2 =1 A2
5

Note: Award A1 if both answers are given as final answers for P( B ) .

[6 marks]

Examiners report
This question proved difficult for many students. One common error was to use P A ∪ B = P(A)+P(B), which simplified
the problem greatly, resulting in a linear, not a quadratic equation.

The following table below shows the marks scored by seven students on two different mathematics tests.
Let L1 be the regression line of x on y. The equation of the line L1 can be written in the form x = ay + b.

Find the value of a and the value of b.

[2]
a.

Let L2 be the regression line of y on x. The lines L1 and L2 pass through the same point with coordinates (p , q).

Find the value of p and the value of q.

[3]
b.

Markscheme
a = 1.29 and b = −10.4 A1A1

[2 marks]

a.

recognising both lines pass through the mean point (M1)

p = 28.7, q = 30.3 A2

[3 marks]

b.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.

Contestants in a TV gameshow try to get through three walls by passing through doors without falling into a trap.
Contestants choose doors at random.
If they avoid a trap they progress to the next wall.
If a contestant falls into a trap they exit the game before the next contestant plays.
Contestants are not allowed to watch each other attempt the game.
The first wall has four doors with a trap behind one door.

Ayako is a contestant.

Natsuko is the second contestant.

The second wall has five doors with a trap behind two of the doors.

The third wall has six doors with a trap behind three of the doors.

The following diagram shows the branches of a probability tree diagram for a contestant in the game.

Write down the probability that Ayako avoids the trap in this wall.

[1]
a.

Find the probability that only one of Ayako and Natsuko falls into a trap while attempting to pass through a door in
the first wall.

[3]
b.

Copy the probability tree diagram and write down the relevant probabilities along the branches.

[3]
c.

A contestant is chosen at random. Find the probability that this contestant fell into a trap while attempting to pass
through a door in the second wall.

[2]
 d.i.

A contestant is chosen at random. Find the probability that this contestant fell into a trap.

[3]
d.ii.

120 contestants attempted this game.

Find the expected number of contestants who fell into a trap while attempting to pass through a door in the third
wall.

[3]
e.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

3 (0.75, 75%) (A1)

4

[1 mark]

a.
3 × 1 + 1 × 3 OR 2 × 3 × 1 (M1)(M1)
4 4 4 4 4 4

Note: Award (M1) for their product 1 × 3 seen, and (M1) for adding their two products or multiplying their product
4 4
by 2.

=3 6 , 0.375, 37.5% (A1)(ft) (G3)

8 16

Note: Follow through from part (a), but only if the sum of their two fractions is 1.

[3 marks]

b.

(A1)(ft)(A1)(A1)

Note: Award (A1) for each correct pair of branches. Follow through from part (a).

[3 marks]

c.
3×2 (M1)
4 5

Note: Award (M1) for correct probabilities multiplied together.

= 3 0.3, 30% (A1)(ft) (G2)

10

Note: Follow through from their tree diagram or part (a).

[2 marks]

d.i.
 3 2 3 1 3 2 3 3 3
1− × × OR + × + × × (M1)(M1)
4 5 6 4 4 5 4 5 6

Note: Award (M1) for 3 × 3 × 3 and (M1) for subtracting their correct probability from 1, or adding to their 1 + 3 × 2
4 5 6 4 4 5
.

= 93 31 , 0.775, 77.5% (A1)(ft) (G2)

120 40

Note: Follow through from their tree diagram.

[3 marks]

d.ii.
3 × 3 × 3 × 120 (M1)(M1)
4 5 6

Note: Award (M1) for 3 × 3 × 3 3 × 3 × 3 OR 27 OR 9 and (M1) for multiplying by 120.

4 5 6 4 5 6 120 40

= 27 (A1)(ft) (G3)

Note: Follow through from their tree diagram or their 3 × 3 × 3 from their calculation in part (d)(ii).
4 5 6

[3 marks]

e.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.i.
[N/A]
d.ii.
[N/A]
e.

The principal of a high school is concerned about the effect social media use might be having on the self-esteem of her
students. She decides to survey a random sample of 9 students to gather some data. She wants the number of students
in each grade in the sample to be, as far as possible, in the same proportion as the number of students in each grade in
the school.

The number of students in each grade in the school is shown in table.

In order to select the 3 students from grade 12, the principal lists their names in alphabetical order and selects the
28th, 56th and 84th student on the list.

Once the principal has obtained the names of the 9 students in the random sample, she surveys each student to find out
how long they used social media the previous day and measures their self-esteem using the Rosenberg scale. The
Rosenberg scale is a number between 10 and 40, where a high number represents high self-esteem.

State the name for this type of sampling technique.

[1]
 a.

Show that 3 students will be selected from grade 12.

[3]
b.i.

Calculate the number of students in each grade in the sample.

[2]
b.ii.

State the name for this type of sampling technique.

[1]
c.

Calculate Pearson’s product moment correlation coefficient, r .

[2]
d.i.

Interpret the meaning of the value of r in the context of the principal’s concerns.

[1]
d.ii.

Explain why the value of r makes it appropriate to find the equation of a regression line.

[1]
d.iii.

Another student at the school, Jasmine, has a self-esteem value of 29.

By finding the equation of an appropriate regression line, estimate the time Jasmine spent on social media the
previous day.

[4]
e.

Markscheme
Stratified sampling A1

[1 mark]

a.

There are 260 students in total A1

84 × 9 = 2.91 M1A1
260

So 3 students will be selected. AG

[3 marks]

b.i.

grade 9 = 60 × 9 ≈ 2, grade 10 = 83 × 9 ≈ 3, grade 11 = 33 × 9 ≈ 1 A2

260 260 260

[2 marks]

b.ii.

Systematic sampling A1

[1 mark]

c.

r = − 0.901 A2

[2 marks]

d.i.

The negative value of r indicates that more time spent on social media leads to lower self-esteem, supporting the
 principal’s concerns. R1

[1 mark]

d.ii.

r being close to –1 indicates there is strong correlation, so a regression line is appropriate. R1

[1 mark]

d.iii.

Find the regression line of t on s . M1

t = − 0.281s + 9.74 A1

t = ( − 0.2807…) ( 29) + 9.739… = 1.60 hours M1A1

[4 marks]

e.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.i.
[N/A]
b.ii.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.i.
[N/A]
d.ii.
[N/A]
d.iii.
[N/A]
e.

A healthy human body temperature is 37.0 °C. Eight people were medically examined and the difference in their body
temperature (°C), from 37.0 °C, was recorded. Their heartbeat (beats per minute) was also recorded.

Draw a scatter diagram for temperature difference from 37 °C ( x ) against heartbeat ( y ). Use a scale of 2 cm for
0.1 °C on the horizontal axis, starting with −0.3 °C. Use a scale of 1 cm for 2 heartbeats per minute on the vertical
axis, starting with 60 beats per minute.

[4]
a.

Write down, for this set of data the mean temperature difference from 37 °C, x¯ .

[1]
b.i.
¯
Write down, for this set of data the mean number of heartbeats per minute, y .

[1]
b.ii.
¯
Plot and label the point M( x¯ , y ) on the scatter diagram.

[2]
c.

Use your graphic display calculator to find the Pearson’s product–moment correlation coefficient, r .
 [2]
d.i.

Hence describe the correlation between temperature difference from 37 °C and heartbeat.

[2]
d.ii.

Use your graphic display calculator to find the equation of the regression line y on x .

[2]
e.

Draw the regression line y on x on the scatter diagram.

[2]
f.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

(A4)

Note: Award (A1) for correct scales, axis labels, minimum x = − 0.3, and minimum y = 60. Award (A0) if axes are
reversed and follow through for their points.

Award (A3) for all eight points correctly plotted,

(A2) for six or seven points correctly plotted.
(A1) for four or five points correctly plotted.

Allow a tolerance of half a small square.

If graph paper has not been used, award at most (A1)(A0)(A0)(A0).

If accuracy cannot be determined award (A0)(A0)(A0)(A0).

[4 marks]

a.

0.025 1 (A1)
40
 [1 mark]

b.i.

74 (A1)

[1 mark]

b.ii.

the point M labelled, correctly plotted on their diagram (A1)(A1)(ft)

Note: Award (A1) for labelled M. Do not accept any other label. Award (A1)(ft) for their point M correctly plotted.
Follow through from part (b).

[2 marks]

c.

0.807 (0.806797…) (G2)

[2 marks]

d.i.

(moderately) strong, positive (A1)(ft)(A1)(ft)

Note: Award (A1) for (moderately) strong, (A1) for positive. Follow through from part (d)(i). If there is no answer to
part (d)(i), award at most (A0)(A1).

[2 marks]

d.ii.

y = 22.0x + 73.5 y = 21.9819…x + 73.4504… (G2)

Note: Award (G1) for 22.0x , (G1) for 73.5.

Award a maximum of (G0)(G1) if the answer is not an equation.

[2 marks]

e.

their regression line correctly drawn on scatter diagram (A1)(ft)(A1)(ft)

Note: Award (A1)(ft) for a straight line, using a ruler, intercepting their mean point, and (A1)(ft) for intercepting
the y -axis at their 73.5 and the gradient of the line is positive. If graph paper is not used, award at most (A1)(A0).
Follow through from part (e).

[2 marks]

f.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.i.
[N/A]
b.ii.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.i.
[N/A]
d.ii.
[N/A]
e.
[N/A]
f.

A group of 66 people went on holiday to Hawaii. During their stay, three trips were arranged: a boat trip ( B ), a coach
trip ( C ) and a helicopter trip ( H ).

From this group of people:

3 went on all three trips;

16 went on the coach trip only;
13 went on the boat trip only;
5 went on the helicopter trip only;
went on the coach trip and the helicopter trip but not the
x
boat trip;
went on the boat trip and the helicopter trip but not the
2x
coach trip;
went on the boat trip and the coach trip but not the
4x
helicopter trip;
8 did not go on any of the trips.

One person in the group is selected at random.

Draw a Venn diagram to represent the given information, using sets labelled B , C and H .

[5]
a.

Show that x = 3.

[2]
b.

Write down the value of n (B ∩ C ).

[1]
c.

Find the probability that this person

(i) went on at most one trip;

(ii) went on the coach trip, given that this person also went on both the helicopter trip and the boat trip.

[4]
d.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

(A5)

Notes: Award (A1) for rectangle and three labelled intersecting circles (U need not be seen),

(A1) for 3 in the correct region,

(A1) for 8 in the correct region,

(A1) for 5, 13 and 16 in the correct regions,

(A1) for x , 2x and 4x in the correct regions.

[5 marks]

a.

8 + 13 + 16 + 3 + 5 + x + 2x + 4x = 66 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for either a completely correct equation or adding all the terms from their diagram in part (a)
and equating to 66.

Award (M0)(A0) if their equation has no x .

 7x = 66 − 45 OR 7x + 45 = 66 (A1)

Note: Award (A1) for adding their like terms correctly, but only when the solution to their equation is equal to 3
and is consistent with their original equation.

x =3 (AG)

Note: The conclusion x = 3 must be seen for the (A1) to be awarded.

[2 marks]

b.

15 (A1)(ft)

Note: Follow through from part (a). The answer must be an integer.

[1 mark]

c.

(i) 42 7 , 0.636, 63.6% (A1)(ft)(A1)(G2)

66 11

Note: Award (A1)(ft) for numerator, (A1) for denominator. Follow through from their Venn diagram.

(ii) 3 1 , 0.333, 33.3% (A1)(A1)(ft)(G2)

9 3

Note: Award (A1) for numerator, (A1)(ft) for denominator. Follow through from their Venn diagram.

[4 marks]

d.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.

The following table shows the mean weight, y kg , of children who are x years old.
The relationship between the variables is modelled by the regression line with equation y = ax + b .

Find the value of a and of b.

[3]
a.i.

Write down the correlation coefficient.

[1]
a.ii.

Use your equation to estimate the mean weight of a child that is 1.95 years old.

[2]
b.

Markscheme
valid approach (M1)

eg correct value for a or b (or for r seen in (ii))

a = 1.91966 b = 7.97717

a = 1.92, b = 7.98 A1A1 N3

[3 marks]

a.i.

0.984674

r = 0.985 A1 N1

[1 mark]

a.ii.

correct substitution into their equation (A1)

eg 1.92 × 1.95 + 7.98

11.7205

11.7 (kg) A1 N2

[2 marks]

b.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.i.
[N/A]
a.ii.
[N/A]
b.

Ten students were surveyed about the number of hours, x , they spent browsing the Internet during week 1 of the
school year. The results of the survey are given below.
10
xi = 252, σ = 5 and median = 27.
i =1

Find the mean number of hours spent browsing the Internet.

[2]
a.

During week 2, the students worked on a major project and they each spent an additional five hours browsing the
Internet. For week 2, write down
 (i) the mean;

(ii) the standard deviation.

[2]
b.

During week 3 each student spent 5% less time browsing the Internet than during week 1. For week 3, find

(i) the median;

(ii) the variance.

[6]
c.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

attempt to substitute into formula for mean (M1)

eg Σ x , 252 , 252
10 n 10

mean = 25.2 (hours) A1 N2

[2 marks]

a.

(i) mean = 30.2 (hours) A1 N1

(ii) σ = 5 (hours) A1 N1

[2 marks]

b.

(i) valid approach (M1)

eg 95%, 5% of 27

correct working (A1)

eg 0.95 × 27, 27 − (5% of 27)

median = 25.65 (exact), 25.7 (hours) A1 N2

(ii) METHOD 1

variance = (standard deviation)2 (seen anywhere) (A1)

valid attempt to find new standard deviation (M1)

eg σnew = 0.95 × 5, 4.75

variance = 22.5625 (exact), 22.6 A1 N2

METHOD 2

variance = (standard deviation)2 (seen anywhere) (A1)

valid attempt to find new variance (M1)

eg 0.952 , 0.9025 × σ 2

new variance = 22.5625 (exact), 22.6 A1 N2

[6 marks]

c.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
 [N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.

The following table shows the systolic blood pressures, p mmHg, and the ages, t years, of 6 male patients at a medical
clinic.

The relationship between t and p can be modelled by the regression line of p on t with equation p = at + b .

A 50‐year‐old male patient enters the medical clinic for his appointment.

Determine the value of Pearson’s product‐moment correlation coefficient, r , for these data.

[2]
a.i.

Interpret, in context, the value of r found in part (a) (i).

[1]
a.ii.

Find the equation of the regression line of p on t .

[2]
b.

Use the regression equation from part (b) to predict this patient’s systolic blood pressure.

[2]
c.

A 16‐year‐old male patient enters the medical clinic for his appointment.

Explain why the regression equation from part (b) should not be used to predict this patient’s systolic blood
pressure.

[1]
d.

Markscheme
* This sample question was produced by experienced DP mathematics senior examiners to aid teachers in preparing for external
assessment in the new MAA course. There may be minor differences in formatting compared to formal exam papers.

r = 0 . 946 A2

[2 marks]

a.i.

the value of r shows a (very) strong positive correlation between age and (systolic) blood pressure A1

[1 mark]

a.ii.

p = 1 . 05t + 69 . 3 A1A1

Note: Only award marks for an equation. Award A1 for a = 1 . 05 and A1 for b = 69 . 3. Award A1A0 for
y = 1 . 05x + 69 . 3.
 [2 marks]

b.

122 (mmHg) (M1)A1

[2 marks]

c.

the regression equation should not be used because it involves extrapolation A1

[1 mark]

d.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.i.
[N/A]
a.ii.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.

A nationwide study on reaction time is conducted on participants in two age groups. The participants in Group X are
less than 40 years old. Their reaction times are normally distributed with mean 0.489 seconds and standard deviation
0.07 seconds.

The participants in Group Y are 40 years or older. Their reaction times are normally distributed with mean 0.592
seconds and standard deviation σ seconds.

In the study, 38 % of the participants are in Group X.

A person is selected at random from Group X. Find the probability that their reaction time is greater than 0.65
seconds.

[2]
a.

The probability that the reaction time of a person in Group Y is greater than 0.65 seconds is 0.396. Find the value
of σ.

[4]
b.

A randomly selected participant has a reaction time greater than 0.65 seconds. Find the probability that the
participant is in Group X.

[6]
c.

Ten of the participants with reaction times greater than 0.65 are selected at random. Find the probability that at
least two of them are in Group X.

[3]
d.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

0.010724

0.0107 A2 N2
[2 marks]

a.

correct z-value (A1)

0.263714…

evidence of appropriate approach (M1)

eg 0.65 − 0.592 ,
σ 0.264 = x −
σ
u

correct substitution (A1)

eg 0.263714 = 0.65 −σ 0.592 , σ = 0.65 − 0.592

0.264

0.219934

σ = 0.220 A1 N3

[4 marks]

b.

correct work for P(group X and t > 0.65) or P(group Y and t > 0.65) (may be seen anywhere) (A1)

eg P group X × P t > 0.65 | X , P X ∩ t > 0.65 = 0.0107 × 0.38 = 0.004075 ,

P Y ∩ t > 0.65 = 0.396 × 0.62

recognizing conditional probability (seen anywhere) (M1)

P A ∩B
eg P X | t > 0.65 , P A |B =
P( B )

valid approach to find P t > 0.65 (M1)

eg , P X and t > 0.65 + P Y and t > 0.65

correct work for P t > 0.65 (A1)

eg 0.0107 × 0.38 + 0.396 × 0.62, 0.249595

correct substitution into conditional probability formula A1

eg 0.0107 × 0.38 , 0.004075

0.0107 × 0.38 + 0.396 × 0.62 0.249595

0.016327

P X | t > 0.65 = 0.0163270 A1 N3

[6 marks]

c.

recognizing binomial probability (M1)

eg X ∼ B( n, p) , n p r q n − r , (0.016327)2(0.983672)8, 10
r 2
 valid approach (M1)

eg P X ⩾2 =1−P X ⩽1 , 1−P X <a , summing terms from 2 to 10 (accept binomcdf(10, 0.0163, 2, 10))

0.010994

P X ⩾2 = 0.0110 A1 N2

[3 marks]

d.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.

SpeedWay airline flies from city A to city B. The flight time is normally distributed with a mean of 260 minutes and a
standard deviation of 15 minutes.

A flight is considered late if it takes longer than 275 minutes.

The flight is considered to be on time if it takes between m and 275 minutes. The probability that a flight is on time is
0.830.

During a week, SpeedWay has 12 flights from city A to city B. The time taken for any flight is independent of the time
taken by any other flight.

Calculate the probability a flight is not late.

[2]
a.

Find the value of m .

[3]
b.

Calculate the probability that at least 7 of these flights are on time.

[3]
c.i.

Given that at least 7 of these flights are on time, find the probability that exactly 10 flights are on time.

[4]
c.ii.

SpeedWay increases the number of flights from city A to city B to 20 flights each week, and improves their
efficiency so that more flights are on time. The probability that at least 19 flights are on time is 0.788.

A flight is chosen at random. Calculate the probability that it is on time.

[3]
d.

Markscheme
valid approach (M1)

eg P X < 275 , 1 − 0.158655

0.841344

0.841 A1 N2
[2 marks]

a.

valid approach (M1)

eg P X < 275 −P X <m = 0.830

correct working (A1)

eg P X <m = 0.0113447

225.820

226 (minutes) A1 N3

[3 marks]

b.

evidence of recognizing binomial distribution (seen anywhere) (M1)

eg n Ca × p a × q n − a , B( n , p )

evidence of summing probabilities from 7 to 12 (M1)

eg P X =7 +P X =8 + … + P X = 12 , 1 − P X ⩽ 6

0.991248

0.991 A1 N2

[3 marks]

c.i.

finding P X = 10 (seen anywhere) A1

eg 12 × 0.8310 × 0.172 = 0.295952

10

recognizing conditional probability (M1)

P X = 10 ∩ X ⩾ 7
eg P A |B , P X = 10 | X ⩾ 7 ,
P X ⩾7

correct working (A1)

eg 0.295952
0.991248
0.298565

0.299 A1 N1

Note: Exception to the FT rule: if the candidate uses an incorrect value for the probability that a flight is on time
in (i) and working shown, award full FT in (ii) as appropriate.

[4 marks]

c.ii.

correct equation (A1)

eg 20 p 19 1 − p + p 20 = 0.788
19

valid attempt to solve (M1)

eg graph

0.956961

0.957 A1 N1

[3 marks]

d.
Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.i.
[N/A]
c.ii.
[N/A]
d.

The mass M of apples in grams is normally distributed with mean μ. The following table shows probabilities for values
of M.

The apples are packed in bags of ten.

Any apples with a mass less than 95 g are classified as small.

Write down the value of k.

[2]
a.i.

Show that μ = 106.

[2]
a.ii.

Find P(M < 95) .

[5]
b.

Find the probability that a bag of apples selected at random contains at most one small apple.

[3]
c.

Find the expected number of bags in this crate that contain at most one small apple.

[3]
d.i.

Find the probability that at least 48 bags in this crate contain at most one small apple.

[2]
d.ii.

Markscheme
evidence of using pi = 1 (M1)

eg k + 0.98 + 0.01 = 1

k = 0.01 A1 N2

[2 marks]

a.i.

recognizing that 93 and 119 are symmetrical about μ (M1)

eg μ is midpoint of 93 and 119

correct working to find μ A1

 119 + 93
2

μ = 106 AG N0

[2 marks]

a.ii.

finding standardized value for 93 or 119 (A1)

eg z = −2.32634, z = 2.32634

correct substitution using their z value (A1)

eg 93 −σ 106 = − 2.32634, 119 − 106 = σ
2.32634

σ = 5.58815 (A1)

0.024508

P(X < 95) = 0.0245 A2 N3

[5 marks]

b.

evidence of recognizing binomial (M1)

eg 10, ananaCpqn−=××and 0.024B(5,,)pnp=

valid approach (M1)

eg P(1),P(0)P(1)XXX≤=+=

0.976285

0.976 A1 N2

[3 marks]

c.

recognizing new binomial probability (M1)

eg B(50, 0.976)

correct substitution (A1)

eg E(X) = 50 (0.976285)

48.81425

48.8 A1 N2

[3 marks]

d.i.

valid approach (M1)

eg P(X ≥ 48), 1 − P(X ≤ 47)

0.884688

0.885 A1 N2

[2 marks]

d.ii.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.i.
[N/A]
a.ii.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.
 [N/A]
d.i.
[N/A]
d.ii.

Two events A and B are such that P(A) = 0.62 and P A ∩ B = 0.18.

Find P(A ∩ B′ ).

[2]
a.

Given that P((A ∪ B)′ ) = 0.19, find P(A | B′ ).

[4]
b.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

valid approach

eg Venn diagram, P(A) − P (A ∩ B), 0.62 − 0.18 (M1)

P(A ∩ B' ) = 0.44 A1 N2

[2 marks]

a.

valid approach to find either P(B′ ) or P(B) (M1)

eg (seen anywhere), 1 − P(A ∩ B′ ) − P((A ∪ B)′ )

correct calculation for P(B′ ) or P(B) (A1)

eg 0.44 + 0.19, 0.81 − 0.62 + 0.18

P A ∩ B′
correct substitution into (A1)
P B′

eg 0.44 , 0.44
0.19 + 0.44 1 − 0.37

0.698412

P(A | B′ ) = 44 (exact), 0.698 A1 N3

63

[4 marks]

b.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.

A bakery makes two types of muffins: chocolate muffins and banana muffins.

The weights, C grams, of the chocolate muffins are normally distributed with a mean of 62 g and standard deviation of
2 . 9 g.
The weights, B grams, of the banana muffins are normally distributed with a mean of 68 g and standard deviation of
3 . 4 g.

Each day 60 % of the muffins made are chocolate.

On a particular day, a muffin is randomly selected from all those made at the bakery.

The machine that makes the chocolate muffins is adjusted so that the mean weight of the chocolate muffins remains the
same but their standard deviation changes to σ g. The machine that makes the banana muffins is not adjusted. The
probability that the weight of a randomly selected muffin from these machines is less than 61 g is now 0 . 157.

Find the probability that a randomly selected chocolate muffin weighs less than 61 g.

[2]
a.

In a random selection of 12 chocolate muffins, find the probability that exactly 5 weigh less than 61 g.

[2]
b.

Find the probability that the randomly selected muffin weighs less than 61 g.

[4]
c.i.

Given that a randomly selected muffin weighs less than 61 g, find the probability that it is chocolate.

[3]
c.ii.

Find the value of σ .

[5]
d.

Markscheme
P C < 61 (M1)

= 0 . 365112…

= 0 . 365 A1

[2 marks]

a.

recognition of binomial eg X ~B 12, 0 . 365… (M1)

P X =5 = 0 . 213666…

= 0 . 214 A1

[2 marks]

b.

Let CM represent ‘chocolate muffin’ and BM represent ‘banana muffin’

P B < 61 = 0 . 0197555 . . . (A1)

EITHER

P( CM ) × P C < 61 CM + P( BM ) × P B < 61 BM (or equivalent in words) (M1)

OR

tree diagram showing two ways to have a muffin weigh < 61 (M1)

THEN
 0 . 6 × 0 . 365… + 0 . 4 × 0 . 0197… (A1)

= 0 . 226969…

= 0 . 227 A1

[4 marks]

c.i.

recognizing conditional probability (M1)

Note: Recognition must be shown in context either in words or symbols, not just P A B

0 . 6 × 0 . 365112… (A1)
0 . 226969…
= 0 . 965183…

= 0 . 965 A1

[3 marks]

c.ii.

METHOD 1

P( CM ) × P C < 61 CM × P( BM ) × P B < 61 BM = 0 . 157 (M1)

0 . 6 × P C < 61 + 0 . 4 × 0 . 0197555… = 0 . 157

P C < 61 = 0 . 248496… (A1)

attempt to solve for σ using GDC (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for a graph or table of values to show their P C < 61 with a variable standard deviation.

σ = 1 . 47225…

σ = 1 . 47 ( g) A2

METHOD 2

P( CM ) × P C < 61 CM × P( BM ) × P B < 61 BM = 0 . 157 (M1)

0 . 6 × P C < 61 + 0 . 4 × 0 . 0197555… = 0 . 157

P C < 61 = 0 . 248496… (A1)

use of inverse normal to find z score of their P C < 61 (M1)

z = − 0 . 679229…

correct substitution (A1)

61 − 62 = − 0 . 679229…
σ
σ = 1 . 47225…

σ = 1 . 47 ( g) A1

[5 marks]

d.
Examiners report
This question was common to both HL and SL papers.

The first two parts of this question were generally well done, with many candidates demonstrating an understanding
of how to find, using their GDC, the required probability from a normal distribution in part (a), and recognising the
binomial probability in part (b).

Parts (c) and (d) were not done well, although many that were able to make progress in part (d) were often able to
give concise solutions. Most that attempted part (c) did very poorly, while few attempted part (d). Both parts proved
challenging, principally due to difficulties in determining the different possible outcomes with combined events. In
part (c)(i), tree diagrams were unfortunately rarely seen, as were attempts to set out the ways of selecting a muffin
weighing less than 61 g, either in words, or using appropriate notation involving probabilities. Those who did
understand these concepts on the other hand were much more likely to be able to find the conditional probability in
part (c)(ii) and be successful in part (d). Common errors included not considering both types of muffin, and in part (d)
using a probability instead of a z-value.

a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.i.
[N/A]
c.ii.
[N/A]
d.

The number of messages, M , that six randomly selected teenagers sent during the month of October is shown in the
following table. The table also shows the time, T , that they spent talking on their phone during the same month.

The relationship between the variables can be modelled by the regression equation M = aT + b .

Write down the value of a and of b .

[3]
a.

Use your regression equation to predict the number of messages sent by a teenager that spent 154 minutes talking
on their phone in October.

[3]
b.

Markscheme
evidence of set up (M1)

eg correct value for a or b (accept r = 0.966856)

4.30161, 163.330

a = 4.30, b = 163 (accept y = 4.30x + 163) A1A1 N3

[3 marks]

a.

valid approach (M1)

eg 4.30 154 + 163

eg 825.778 (825.2 from 3 sf values) (A1)

number of messages = 826 (must be an integer) A1 N3

[3 marks]

b.
Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.

A random sample of nine adults were selected to see whether sleeping well affected their reaction times to a visual
stimulus. Each adult’s reaction time was measured twice.

The first measurement for reaction time was taken on a morning after the adult had slept well. The second
measurement was taken on a morning after the same adult had not slept well.

The box and whisker diagrams for the reaction times, measured in seconds, are shown below.

Consider the box and whisker diagram representing the reaction times after sleeping well.

State the median reaction time after sleeping well.

[1]
a.

Verify that the measurement of 0 . 46 seconds is not an outlier.

[3]
b.

State why it appears that the mean reaction time is greater than the median reaction time.

[1]
c.

Now consider the two box and whisker diagrams.

Comment on whether these box and whisker diagrams provide any evidence that might suggest that not sleeping
well causes an increase in reaction time.

[1]
d.

Markscheme
0 . 28 (s) A1

[1 mark]

a.

IQR = 0 . 35 − 0 . 27 ( = 0 . 08) (s) (A1)

substituting their IQR into correct expression for upper fence (A1)

0 . 35 + 1 . 5 × 0 . 08 = 0 . 47 (s)
 0 . 46 < 0 . 47 R1

so 0 . 46 (s) is not an outlier AG

[3 marks]

b.

EITHER

the median is closer to the lower quartile (positively skewed) R1

OR

The distribution is positively skewed R1

OR

the range of reaction times below the median is smaller than the range of reaction times above the median R1

Note: These are sample answers from a range of acceptable correct answers. Award R1 for any correct statement
that explains this.
Do not award R1 if there is also an incorrect statement, even if another statement in the answer is correct. Accept a
correctly and clearly labelled diagram.

[1 mark]

c.

EITHER

the distribution for ‘not sleeping well’ is centred at a higher reaction time R1

OR

The median reaction time after not sleeping well is equal to the upper quartile reaction time after sleeping well
R1

OR

75 % of reaction times are < 0 . 35 seconds after sleeping well, compared with 50 % after not sleeping well R1

OR

the sample size of 9 is too small to draw any conclusions R1

Note: These are sample answers from a range of acceptable correct answers. Accept any relevant correct statement
that relates to the median and/or quartiles shown in the box plots. Do not accept a comparison of means. Do
not award R1 if there is also an incorrect statement, even if another statement in the answer is correct.

Award R0 to “correlation does not imply causation”.

[1 mark]

d.

Examiners report
Parts (a) and (b) were generally known, but answers to parts (c) and (d) showed poor understanding of interpreting
data. Many students thought they could find the mean by considering only the end points. Others assumed it would
be halfway between the quartiles. When it came to evidence, many were far too quick to say the diagrams 'proved'
something. Most compared only the medians and thought that was sufficient evidence, completely ignoring the fact
 the median only represented one data point. Others just compared the maximum and minimum. A few commented
correctly that 9 subjects was too small a sample to prove anything.

a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.

A six-sided biased die is weighted in such a way that the probability of obtaining a “six” is 7 .
10
The die is tossed five times. Find the probability of obtaining at most three “sixes”.

[3]
a.

The die is tossed five times. Find the probability of obtaining the third “six” on the fifth toss.

[3]
b.

Markscheme
recognition of binomial (M1)

X ~ B(5, 0.7)

attempt to find P (X ≤ 3) M1

= 0.472 (= 0.47178) A1

[3 marks]

a.

recognition of 2 sixes in 4 tosses (M1)

P (3rd six on the 5th toss) = 4 × ( 0.7) 2×( 0.3) 2 × 0.7 = 0.2646 × 0.7 A1
2

= 0.185 (= 0.18522) A1

[3 marks]

b.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.

A group of 800 students answered 40 questions on a category of their choice out of History, Science and Literature.

For each student the category and the number of correct answers, N , was recorded. The results obtained are
represented in the following table.

A χ 2 test at the 5% significance level is carried out on the results. The critical value for this test is 12.592.

State whether N is a discrete or a continuous variable.

[1]
a.
 Write down, for N , the modal class;

[1]
b.i.

Write down, for N , the mid-interval value of the modal class.

[1]
b.ii.

Use your graphic display calculator to estimate the mean of N ;

[2]
c.i.

Use your graphic display calculator to estimate the standard deviation of N .

[1]
c.ii.

Find the expected frequency of students choosing the Science category and obtaining 31 to 40 correct answers.

[2]
d.

Write down the null hypothesis for this test;

[1]
e.i.

Write down the number of degrees of freedom.

[1]
e.ii.

Write down the p -value for the test;

[1]
f.i.

Write down the χ 2 statistic.

[2]
f.ii.

State the result of the test. Give a reason for your answer.

[2]
g.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

discrete (A1)

[1 mark]

a.

11 ⩽ N ⩽ 20 (A1)

[1 mark]

b.i.

15.5 (A1)(ft)

Note: Follow through from part (b)(i).

[1 mark]

b.ii.
21.2 (21.2125) (G2)

[2 marks]

c.i.

9.60 (9.60428…) (G1)

[1 marks]

c.ii.

260 × 157 × 800 OR 260 × 157 (M1)

800 800 800

Note: Award (M1) for correct substitution into expected frequency formula.

= 51.0 (51.025) (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]

d.

choice of category and number of correct answers are independent (A1)

Notes: Accept “no association” between (choice of) category and number of correct answers. Do not accept “not
related” or “not correlated” or “influenced”.

[1 mark]

e.i.

6 (A1)

[1 mark]

e.ii.

0.0644 (0.0644123…) (G1)

[1 mark]

f.i.

11.9 (11.8924…) (G2)

[2 marks]

f.ii.

the null hypothesis is not rejected (the null hypothesis is accepted) (A1)(ft)

OR

(choice of) category and number of correct answers are independent (A1)(ft)

as 11.9 < 12.592 OR 0.0644 > 0.05 (R1)

Notes: Award (R1) for a correct comparison of either their χ 2 statistic to the χ 2 critical value or their p -value to
the significance level. Award (A1)(ft) from that comparison.

Follow through from part (f). Do not award (A1)(ft)(R0).

[2 marks]

g.
Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.i.
[N/A]
b.ii.
[N/A]
c.i.
[N/A]
c.ii.
[N/A]
d.
[N/A]
e.i.
[N/A]
e.ii.
[N/A]
f.i.
[N/A]
f.ii.
[N/A]
g.

A random variable X is normally distributed with mean, μ . In the following diagram, the shaded region between 9 and
μ represents 30% of the distribution.

The standard deviation of X is 2.1.

The random variable Y is normally distributed with mean λ and standard deviation 3.5. The events X > 9 and Y > 9 are
independent, and P (X > 9) ∩ (Y > 9) = 0.4.

Find P(X < 9).

[2]
a.

Find the value of μ .

[3]
b.

Find λ .

[5]
c.

Given that Y > 9, find P(Y < 13).

[5]
d.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

valid approach (M1)

eg P(X < μ ) = 0.5, 0.5 − 0.3

P(X < 9) = 0.2 (exact) A1 N2

[2 marks]

a.

z = − 0.841621 (may be seen in equation) (A1)

valid attempt to set up an equation with their z (M1)

 μ −X X −μ 9−μ
eg − 0.842 = σ , − 0.842 = σ , z = 2.1

10.7674

μ = 10.8 A1 N3

[3 marks]

b.

P(X > 9) = 0.8 (seen anywhere) (A1)

valid approach (M1)

eg P(A ) × P(B )

correct equation (A1)

eg 0.8 × P(Y > 9) = 0.4

P(Y > 9) = 0.5 A1

λ =9 A1 N3

[5 marks]

c.

finding P(9 < Y < 13) = 0.373450 (seen anywhere) (A2)

recognizing conditional probability (M1)

eg P(A | B ), P(Y < 13 | Y > 9)

correct working (A1)

eg 0.373
0.5
0.746901

0.747 A1 N3

[5 marks]

d.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.

A jigsaw puzzle consists of many differently shaped pieces that fit together to form a picture.
Jill is doing a 1000-piece jigsaw puzzle. She started by sorting the edge pieces from the interior pieces. Six times she
stopped and counted how many of each type she had found. The following table indicates this information.

Jill models the relationship between these variables using the regression equation y = ax + b .

Write down the value of a and of b .

[3]
a.

Use the model to predict how many edge pieces she had found when she had sorted a total of 750 pieces.

[3]
b.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

valid approach (M1)

eg correct value for a or b (ignore incorrect labels)

a = 6.92986, b = 8.80769

a = 6.93, b = 8.81 (accept y = 6.93x + 8.81) A1A1 N3

[3 marks]

a.

valid approach (M1)

eg 750 = x + y , edge + interior = 750

correct working (A1)

eg 750 − x = 6.9298 x + 8.807 , 93.4684

93 (pieces) (accept 94) A1 N3

[3 marks]

b.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.

Ten students were asked for the distance, in km, from their home to school. Their responses are recorded below.

0.3 0.4 3 3 3.5 5 7 8 8 10

The following box-and-whisker plot represents this data.

For these data, find the mean distance from a student’s home to school.

[2]
a.
 Find the value of p .

[1]
b.

Find the interquartile range.

[2]
c.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

x
evidence of finding n (M1)

0.3 + 0.4 + 3 + … + 10 48.2

eg ,
10 10

x¯ = 4.82 (exact) A1 N2

[2 marks]

a.

p = 4.25 (exact) A1 N1

[1 mark]

b.

valid approach (M1)

eg Q3 − Q1 3 − 8 , 3 to 8

IQR = 5 A1 N2

[2 marks]

c.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.

A jar contains 5 red discs, 10 blue discs and m green discs. A disc is selected at random and replaced. This process is
performed four times.

Write down the probability that the first disc selected is red.

[1]
a.

Let X be the number of red discs selected. Find the smallest value of m for which Var(X ) < 0.6.

[5]
b.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

P(red) = 5 A1 N1
15 + m

[1 mark]
 a.

recognizing binomial distribution (M1)

eg X ∼ B (n , p )

correct value for the complement of their p (seen anywhere) A1

eg 1− 5 , 10 + m
15 + m 15 + m

correct substitution into Var(X ) = np (1 − p ) (A1)

5 10 + m 20(10 + m )
eg 4 , < 0.6
15 + m 15 + m (15 + m )2

m > 12.2075 (A1)

m = 13 A1 N3

[5 marks]

b.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.

In Lucy’s music academy, eight students took their piano diploma examination and achieved scores out of 150. For her
records, Lucy decided to record the average number of hours per week each student reported practising in the weeks
prior to their examination. These results are summarized in the table below.

Find Pearson’s product-moment correlation coefficient, r , for these data.

[2]
a.

The relationship between the variables can be modelled by the regression equation D = ah + b . Write down the
value of a and the value of b .

[1]
b.

One of these eight students was disappointed with her result and wished she had practised more. Based on the
given data, determine how her score could have been expected to alter had she practised an extra five hours per
week.

[2]
c.

Markscheme
use of GDC to give (M1)

r = 0 . 883529…

r = 0 . 884 A1

Note: Award the (M1) for any correct value of r , a , b or r 2 = 0 . 780624… seen in part (a) or part (b).

[2 marks]
 a.

a = 1 . 36609… , b = 64 . 5171…

a = 1 . 37 , b = 64 . 5 A1

[1 mark]

b.

attempt to find their difference (M1)

5 × 1 . 36609… OR 1 . 36609… h + 5 + 64 . 5171… − 1 . 36609…h + 64 . 5171…

6 . 83045…

= 6 . 83 6 . 85 from 1 . 37

the student could have expected her score to increase by 7 marks. A1

Note: Accept an increase of 6, 6 . 83 or 6 . 85.

[2 marks]

c.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.

A discrete random variable X has the following probability distribution.

Find the value of k .

[4]
a.

Write down P(X = 2).

[1]
b.

Find P(X = 2 | X > 0).

[3]
c.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

valid approach (M1)

eg total probability = 1

correct equation (A1)

eg 0.475 + 2k 2 + k + 6k 2 = 1, 8k 2 + 0.1k − 0.525 = 0

10

k = 0.25 A2 N3
 [4 marks]

a.

P(X = 2) = 0.025 A1 N1

[1 mark]

b.

valid approach for finding P(X > 0) (M1)

eg 1 − 0.475, 2(0.252) + 0.025 + 6(0.252), 1 − P(X = 0), 2k 2 + k + 6k 2

10

correct substitution into formula for conditional probability (A1)

eg 0.025 , 0.025
1 − 0.475 0.525

0.0476190

P(X = 2 | X > 0) = 1 (exact), 0.0476 A1 N2

21

[3 marks]

c.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.

The maximum temperature T , in degrees Celsius, in a park on six randomly selected days is shown in the following
table. The table also shows the number of visitors, N , to the park on each of those six days.

The relationship between the variables can be modelled by the regression equation N = aT + b .

Find the value of a and of b .

[3]
a.i.

Write down the value of r .

[1]
a.ii.

Use the regression equation to estimate the number of visitors on a day when the maximum temperature is 15 °C.

[3]
b.

Markscheme
evidence of set up (M1)

eg correct value for a or b

0.667315, 22.2117

a = 0.667, b = 22.2 A1A1 N3

[3 marks]

a.i.
 0.922958

r = 0.923 A1 N1

[1 marks]

a.ii.

valid approach (M1)

eg 0.667(15) + 22.2, N (15)

32.2214 (A1)

32 (visitors) (must be an integer) A1 N2

[3 marks]

b.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.i.
[N/A]
a.ii.
[N/A]
b.

A data set consisting of 16 test scores has mean 14 . 5 . One test score of 9 requires a second marking and is removed
from the data set.

Find the mean of the remaining 15 test scores.

Markscheme
* This sample question was produced by experienced DP mathematics senior examiners to aid teachers in preparing for external
assessment in the new MAA course. There may be minor differences in formatting compared to formal exam papers.

16
Σ x
i =1 i
= 14 . 5 (M1)
16

n
Σ x
¯ i =1 i
Note: Award M1 for use of x = n .

16
⇒ Σ xi = 232 (A1)
i =1

¯
new x = 232 − 9 (A1)
15
¯
= 14 . 9 = 14 . 86, = 223 A1
15

Note: Do not accept 15.

[4 marks]

Examiners report
[N/A]
In a large university the probability that a student is left handed is 0.08. A sample of 150 students is randomly selected
from the university. Let k be the expected number of left-handed students in this sample.

Find k .

[2]
a.

Hence, find the probability that exactly k students are left handed;

[2]
b.i.

Hence, find the probability that fewer than k students are left handed.

[2]
b.ii.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

evidence of binomial distribution (may be seen in part (b)) (M1)

eg np , 150 × 0.08

k = 12 A1 N2

[2 marks]

a.

P X = 12 = 150 ( 0.08) 12( 0.92) 138 (A1)

12

0.119231

probability = 0.119 A1 N2

[2 marks]

b.i.

recognition that X ⩽ 11 (M1)

0.456800

P(X < 12) = 0.457 A1 N2

[2 marks]

b.ii.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.i.
[N/A]
b.ii.

A discrete random variable, X , has the following probability distribution:

Show that 2k 2 − k + 0 . 12 = 0.

[1]
 a.

Find the value of k , giving a reason for your answer.

[3]
b.

Hence, find E X .

[2]
c.

Markscheme
0 . 41 + k − 0 . 28 + 0 . 46 + 0 . 29 − 2k 2 = 1 OR k − 2k 2 + 0 . 01 = 0 . 13 (or equivalent) A1

2k 2 − k + 0 . 12 = 0 AG

[1 mark]

a.

one of 0 . 2 OR 0 . 3 (M1)

k = 0.3 A1

reasoning to reject k = 0 . 2 eg P 1 = k − 0 . 28 ≥ 0 therefore k ≠ 0 . 2 R1

[3 marks]

b.

attempting to use the expected value formula (M1)

E X = 0 × 0 . 41 + 1 × ( 0 . 3 − 0 . 28) + 2 × 0 . 46 + 3 × 0 . 29 − 2 × 0 . 32

= 1 . 27 A1

Note: Award M1A0 if additional values are given.

[2 marks]

c.

Examiners report
Part (a) was well done in this question, with most candidates recognising that the probabilities needed to sum to 1.
Many candidates also approached part (b) appropriately. While many did so by graphing the quadratic on the GDC
and identifying the zeros, most solved the equation analytically. Those that used the GDC, often assumed there was
only one x-intercept and did not investigate the relevant area of the graph in more detail. While some who found the
two required values of k recognised that k = 0.2 should be rejected by referring to the original probabilities, most
had lost sight of the context of the question, and were unable to give a valid reason using P(X = 1) to reject this
solution. Those that obtained one solution in part (b), were generally able to find the expected value successfully in
part (c).

a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.

A discrete random variable X has the following probability distribution.

 Find an expression for q in terms of p .

[2]
a.

Find the value of p which gives the largest value of E X .

[3]
b.i.

Hence, find the largest value of E X .

[1]
b.ii.

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

evidence of summing probabilities to 1 (M1)

eg q + 4p 2 + p + 0 . 7 − 4p 2 = 1, 1 − 4p 2 − p − 0 . 7 + 4p 2

q = 0.3 − p A1 N2

[2 marks]

a.

correct substitution into E X formula (A1)

eg 0 × ( 0 . 3 − p ) + 1 × 4p 2 + 2 × p + 3 × 0 . 7 − 4p 2

valid approach to find when E X is a maximum (M1)

eg max on sketch of E X , 8p + 2 + 3 × ( −8p ) = 0, − b = −2

2a 2 × ( −8)

p=1 = 0 . 125 (exact) (accept x = 1 ) A1 N3

8 8

[3 marks]

b.i.

2 . 225
89 (exact), 2 . 23 A1 N1
40

[1 mark]

b.ii.

Examiners report
[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.i.
[N/A]
b.ii.

Consider the function f ( x ) = x 2e3x , x ∈ R .

The graph of f has a horizontal tangent line at x = 0 and at x = a . Find a .

Markscheme
valid method (M1)

eg f ′ ( x ) = 0, ,
2
a = − 0.667 = − (accept x = − 0.667) A1 N2
3

[2 marks]

Examiners report
[N/A]

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