ASE 6002 QSY • Systems Design and Analysis • Fall 2024

Instructor: Doug Bodner, Ph.D., P.E. ([email protected])

Mentors: Margaret Viola (TBD), Sabrena Yedo ([email protected] )
Office Hours: Tuesday evenings for general questions
Wednesday evenings for individual assignments
Thursday evenings for team assignments
By appointment
Overview
1. Course description: Modern systems underpin today’s society, ranging from defense and
national security, to transportation, to energy, to consumer products, and more. This course
provides a theoretical foundation for the development and use of models in the design of
such systems. Models include both decision models and analysis models. The focus is on
value-driven design, which emphasizes the selection of alternatives that maximize
stakeholder preferences. The course leverages state-of-the-art model-based systems
engineering methods and tools to enable modern design practice using the theoretical
foundation provided.
2. Course pre-requisite: ASE 6001 – Fundamentals of Modern Systems Engineering
3. Other pre-requisites: Basic probability and statistics from undergraduate engineering and
basic programming/software skills
4. Delivery: This is an online course with asynchronous video lectures plus synchronous office
hours and three synchronous live sessions.
5. Learning environment: This class is a learning environment, both inside and outside the
live sessions. Learning will occur through a mix of online lectures, online discussion forums,
individual assignments, live sessions, group exercises, online office hours and most
importantly a team project. You should absolutely ask questions if you are unclear about
something.
6. Course outcomes: Upon successful completion of this course, you will be able to:
• Analyze system elements using systems thinking to relate design variables to
performance attributes and performance attributes to objectives, characterizing first
order and interaction effects
• Frame design decisions in terms of objectives, requirements, alternatives, outcomes,
and preferences
• Model design preferences including risk and time preferences
• Distinguish between architectural design and sizing design
• Link design problem elements in a computational/optimization/simulation framework
• Elicit uncertainty characterizations, update them as needed with new information
using Bayesian procedures, and incorporate them into models
• Perform statistical analysis for uncertainty when suitable datasets are available
• Evaluate design alternatives by conducting simulation-based optimization studies
• Demonstrate proficiency in use of state-of-the-art MBSE tools when conducting
design studies
• Critically evaluate analysis results in the presence of uncertainty

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 • Recognize and discuss the trade-offs between the costs and value of different
simulation-based design processes
Course Materials and Resources
1. Textbook: Fundamentals of Decision Making for Engineering Design and Systems
Engineering, by George A. Hazelrigg
2. Optional textbook: Introduction to Probability, Statistics, and Random Processes, by H.
Pishro-Nik. Available at www.probabilitycourse.com/.
3. Additional reading: Articles and other additional reading will be posted to Canvas.
4. Software: We will use ModelCenter®, Excel® and JMP® (all available via VLAB) and
Capella™. You may elect to use additional software for your team project.
5. Modules: The course is arranged into weekly units with material organized via Modules on
Canvas (lectures, assignments, plus other course material).
Assignments and Grading
1. Grade component weights:
• Team assignments 60%
o TA-1: Systems Thinking and Conceptual Design 0%
o TA-2: Quantitative System Design Model 20%
o TA-3: Quantitative System Design Model with Uncertainty 20%
o TA-4: Optimized System Design under Uncertainty 20%
• Individual assignments 35%
o IA-1: Designing Systems with ModelCenter 5%
o IA-2: Design under Different Data Scenarios 10%
o IA-3: Staged Decisions under Uncertainty and Risk 10%
o IA-4. Architectural Design 10%
• Participation
o Live sessions, group exercises and quizzes 5%
2. Overall course grade: The course will be graded based on a straight scale – A (100% to
90%), B (89% to 80%), C (79% to 70%), D (69% to 60%), and F (below 60%).
3. Exams: There are no exams in this course.
4. Team assignments: The class features a team-based design project using ModelCenter. The
team project is intended to assess your ability to synthesize and apply concepts and methods
taught in class to real-world situations, and to communicate your results effectively. The
project will be conducted in four phases, each with a team assignment deliverable. An
ungraded project selection deliverable will kick off the project. The final deliverable will
leverage the previous ones into a complete simulation-based design study. Teams should
consist of 4-5 students mixing different skillsets. You are encouraged to select a design
problem that is of interest to your team, and that is in a domain in which your team has
knowledge and expertise. There will be peer evaluations conducted within each team to help
ensure that each team member contributes approximately equally to the overall effort. Peer
evaluations may be used to adjust individual grades on team assignments.
5. Individual assignments: Individual assignments are intended to assess your individual
understanding of important course concepts. There are four individual assignments.

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6. Participation: Participation credit is provided for attendance and discussion at live sessions,
plus contributions to the group exercises done at these events.
7. Electronic submission: All assignments will be submitted electronically on Canvas. It is
highly recommended that you submit the assignment before the deadline and then check to
make sure that the correct files(s) have been submitted, and that the submission is complete.
A link to a document on a third-party platform is not an acceptable submission.
8. Late assignments: Late assignment submissions will be offered only if you have a valid
reason (severe illness, severe illness or death of an immediate family member, serious
accident, important religious holiday, work-related requirement, or Institute-approved
activities with proper documentation). Such reasons must be submitted as early as possible,
preferably well before the due date
9. Grade appeals: Grade appeals should be presented in writing within one week after the
graded assignments are returned. A grade appeal may result in the entire exam or assignment
being regraded.
Topics
0. Module 0: Course Overview and Introduction
0.1. Course introduction
0.2. Course logistics
0.3. Design problem formulation
0.4. ModelCenter overview
1. Module 1: The Structure of a Value-Driven Design Problem
1.1. Decision-making in design
1.2. Modeling design decision structures with influence diagrams
1.3. Example course project
2. Module 2: Modeling System Value
2.1. Preferences in design – value functions
2.2. Time preferences
2.3. Cost modeling
2.4. Modeling customer demand
2.5. Demand survey tutorial
2.6. Utility and risk
2.7. Comprehensive example
3. Module 3: Predicting Future Outcomes
3.1. Probability basics
3.2. Nature of uncertainty
3.3. Modeling uncertainty
3.4. Probability distributions in practice
3.5. Bayes’ Theorem
3.6. Comprehensive example
4. Module 4: Uncertainty Analysis with Monte Carlo Simulation
4.1. Computing with uncertain information
4.2. Random variate generation
4.3. Design of experiments
4.4. Screening for sensitivity analysis
5. Module 5: Optimization in Design

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 5.1. Optimization review
5.2. Optimization in ModelCenter
6. Module 6: Critical Assessment of Design Methods
6.1. Alternative methods
6.2. Value of information
6.3. Game theory
6.4. Hierarchical delegation of decision-making
Honor Code
1. General: The Honor Code is taken seriously in this class. You should familiarize yourself
with its rules and procedures.
2. Collaboration: The team project and associated team assignments will involve substantial
collaboration among team members, so your collaboration skills are very important. The
individual assignments do not involve collaboration. However, questions about them may be
posted on the class discussion forum.
Administrative Policies and Procedures
1. General: The Student-Faculty Expectations Agreement provides a framework for creating an
atmosphere of mutual respect in the classroom. You are encouraged to review it.
2. Attendance: Attendance at live sessions is required. Each team will generally have one or
more slots each week during team assignment office hours. All team members should attend.
3. Time zone: Unless otherwise stated, all times are assumed to be expressed using Eastern
USA Time (ET).
4. Communication forums: Announcements will be posted on Canvas, and Canvas
Discussions will be used to answer questions of a general nature. You are encouraged to post
questions about class material and assignments on Discussions for class discussion.
5. Email communications: You should address all emails about the course to the instructor or
a mentor. Be sure to include the course number in the subject field (ASE 6002). Many
procedural questions are already answered in the syllabus, so please check the syllabus
beforehand.
6. Website outages: You should download lecture videos and slides and other material from
Canvas well in advance of assignment due dates. OIT often does upgrades or service
activities, and you do not want these items to be unavailable the night before a deadline.
7. Accommodations for individuals with disabilities: The Office of Disability Services
assists with accommodation for individuals with disabilities. If you need accommodation,
please contact the instructor as soon as possible to discuss your individual needs.
Tentative Schedule
Week Dates Topics/Activities Reading
Week 1 10/14 – 10/20 Live Session 1 (10/14 – 10/15) None
• Module 0 – Course Overview and Introduction
• Group Exercise(s)
• Project consultations

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 Module 1 – The Structure of a Value-Driven Design Ch. 1, Ch.
Problem (1.1 – 1.3) 3.1, Ch. 9
Module 2 – Modeling System Value (2.1 – 2.2) Ch. 6.1
Week 2 10/21 – 10/27 Assignment IA-1 due 10/21 at 8:00am
Assignment TA-1 due 10/21 at 8:00am
Module 2 – Modeling System Value (2.3 – 2.5) Ch. 12-13
Module 3 – Predicting Future Outcomes (3.1 – 3.6) Ch. 4.1-4.4
Week 3 10/28 – 11/3 Assignment IA-2 due 10/28 at 8:00am
Module 2 – Modeling System Value (2.6 – 2.7) Ch. 5
Module 4 – Computational Methods for Uncertainty Ch. 4.5
Analysis (4.1 – 4.2)
Live Session 2 on 11/1 – 11/2 None
• Interim project presentations
• Group Exercise(s)
• Project consultations
Week 4 11/4 – 11/10 Assignment TA-2 due 11/4 at 8:00am
Module 4 – Computational Methods for Uncertainty
Analysis (cont’d)
Module 5 – Optimization in Design Ch. 3
Week 5 11/11 – 11/17 Assignment IA-3 due 11/11 8:00am
Module 6 – Critical Assessment of Design Methods Ch. 7-8
App. C
Week 6 11/18 – 11/24 Assignment TA-3 due 11/18 at 8:00am
Project work (additional office hours)
Week 7 11/25 – 12/8 Assignment IA-4 due 11/25 at 8:00am
Project work (additional office hours)
Thanksgiving Break (11/27 – 11/29)
Live Session 3 (12/6 – 12/7) Ch. 14-15
• Project presentations to class and discussion
• Group Exercise(s)
• Course wrap-up
o What have you learned?
o How would you apply this to your SE role?
o What are the limitations of course methods?
o How should requirements and incentives be
used?
The End 12/9 Assignment TA-4 due 12/9 at 8:00am

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