Population

Our growing population

The world’s population is more than three times larger than it was in the mid-twentieth century. The
global human population reached 8.0 billion in mid-November 2022 from an estimated 2.5 billion
people in 1950, adding 1 billion people since 2010 and 2 billion since 1998. The world’s population is
expected to increase by nearly 2 billion persons in the next 30 years, from the current 8 billion to 9.7
billion in 2050 and could peak at nearly 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s.
This dramatic growth has been driven largely by increasing numbers of people surviving to
reproductive age, the gradual increase in human lifespan, increasing urbanization, and accelerating
migration. Major changes in fertility rate have accompanied this growth. These trends will have far-
reaching implications for generations to come.
Day of Eight Billion
On 15 November 2022, the world’s population reached 8 billion people, a milestone in human
development. While it took the global population 12 years to grow from 7 to 8 billion, it will take
approximately 15 years—until 2037— for it to reach 9 billion, a sign that the overall growth rate of the
global population is slowing. Yet levels of fertility remain high in some countries. Countries with the
highest fertility levels tend to be those with the lowest income per capita. Global population growth has
therefore over time become increasingly concentrated among the world’s poorest countries, most of
which are in sub-Saharan Africa.
China and India: most populous countries
China (1.4 billion) and India (1.4 billion) remain the two most populous countries of the world, both with
more than 1 billion people, each representing nearly 18 percent of the world’s population, respectively.
Around 2023, India is projected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country, while China’s
population is projected to decrease by 48 million, or around 2.7 per cent, between 2019 and
2050. (Sources: World Population Prospects 2022 and World Population Dashboard)
The world in 2100
The world population is projected to reach 8.5 billion in 2030, and to increase further to 9.7 billion in
2050 and 10.4 billion by 2100. As with any type of projection, there is a degree of uncertainty
surrounding these latest population projections. These figures are based on the medium projection
variant, which assumes a decline of fertility for countries where large families are still prevalent, as well
as a slight increase of fertility in several countries with fewer than two children per woman on average.
Survival prospects are also projected to improve in all countries.
Africa: fastest growing continent
More than half of global population growth between now and 2050 is expected to occur in Africa.
Africa has the highest rate of population growth among major areas. The population of sub-Saharan
Africa is projected to double by 2050. A rapid population increase in Africa is anticipated even if there
is a substantial reduction of fertility levels in the near future. Regardless of the uncertainty surrounding
future trends in fertility in Africa, the large number of young people currently on the continent, who will
reach adulthood in the coming years and have children of their own, ensures that the region will play a
central role in shaping the size and distribution of the world’s population over the coming decades.
Shrinking population in Europe
In sharp contrast, the populations of 61 countries or areas in the world are expected to decrease by
2050, of which 26 may see a reduction of at least ten per cent. Several countries are expected to see
their populations decline by more than 15 per cent by 2050, including Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Serbia, and Ukraine.
Fertility in all European countries is now below the level required for full replacement of the population
in the long run (around 2.1 children per woman), and in the majority of cases, fertility has been below
the replacement level for several decades.
Factors influencing the population growth
Fertility rates
Future population growth is highly dependent on the path that future fertility will take. According to
the World Population Prospects (2022 Revision), global fertility is projected to fall from 2.3 children per
woman in 2021 to 2.1 in 2050.
Increasing longevity
Overall, significant gains in life expectancy have been achieved in recent years. Globally, life expectancy
at birth is expected to rise from 72.8 years in 2019 to 77.2 years in 2050. While considerable progress
has been made in closing the longevity differential between countries, large gaps remain. In 2021, life
expectancy at birth in the least developed countries lags 7 years behind the global average, due largely
to persistently high levels of child and maternal mortality, as well as violence, conflict and the
continuing impact of the HIV epidemic.
International migration
International migration is a much smaller component of population change than births or deaths.
However, in some countries and areas the impact of migration on population size is significant, namely
in countries that send or receive large numbers of economic migrants and those affected by refugee
flows. Between 2010 and 2021, seventeen countries or areas will see a net inflow of more than one
million migrants, while ten countries will see a net outflow of similar magnitude.
United Nations role in population issues
The United Nations system has long been involved in addressing these complex and interrelated
issues – notably, through the work of the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) and the UN Population
Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
UN Population Division
The UN Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs pulls together
information on such issues as international migration and development, urbanization, world population
prospects and policies, and marriage and fertility statistics. It supports UN bodies such as
the Commission on Population and Development, and supports implementation of the Programme of
Action adopted by the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (IPCD).
The Population Division prepares the official United Nations demographic estimates and projections
for all countries and areas of the world, helps States build capacity to formulate population policies,
and enhances coordination of related UN system activities through its participation in the Committee
for the Coordination of Statistical Activities.
UN Population Fund
The UN Population Fund (UNFPA) started operations in 1969 to assume a leading role within the UN
system in promoting population programmes, based on the human right of individuals and couples to
freely determine the size of their families. At the International Conference on Population and
Development (Cairo, 1994), its mandate was fleshed out in greater detail, to give more emphasis to the
gender and human rights dimensions of population issues, and UNFPA was given the lead role in
helping countries carry out the Conference’s Programme of Action. UNFPA now works in the areas
of sexual and reproductive health, human rights and gender equality, population and development and
has programmes for youth.
On the issue of population, the United Nations has held three conferences, two special sessions of the
General Assembly and a summit in 2019.
World Population Day is observed annually on 11 July. It marks the date, in 1987, when the world’s
population hit the 5 billion mark.
Exercises
A) Choose the correct answer:

1. When did the world's population reach 8 billion people?

A. 2010
B. 2019
C. Mid-November 2022
D. 2037

2. Which two countries have the highest population?

A. China and India
B. USA and Japan
C. Russia and Brazil
D. India and Pakistan

3. Which continent is expected to have the fastest population growth?

A. Asia
B. Europe
C. Africa
D. North America

4. Which region is expected to play a central role in shaping the size and distribution of the
world's population over the coming decades?
A. Europe
B. Asia
C. Africa
D. South America

5. What has been driving the dramatic growth of the world's population?
A. Decreasing numbers of people surviving to reproductive age
B. Decreasing human lifespan
C. Increasing urbanization and accelerating migration
D. Decreasing urbanization and decreasing migration

6. When is World Population Day observed annually?

A. 11 July
B. 10 July
C. 12 July
D. 9 July

7. Which countries tend to have the highest fertility levels?

A. Countries with the highest income per capita
B. Countries with the lowest income per capita
C. Countries with the highest literacy rates
D. Countries with the lowest literacy rates
8. What is the expected rate of population growth in Africa?
A. Slowest among major areas
B. Second fastest among major areas
C. Fastest among major areas
D. There is no expected population growth in Africa

B) Highlight “True” or “False” in front of each sentence:

1. The world's population is expected to decrease by 2 billion true false

persons in the next 30 years.
2. The increase in global population is largely driven by increasing true false
numbers of people surviving to reproductive age.
3. The fertility rate in countries with the highest fertility levels tends true false
to be high.
4. China and India both have a population of over 1 billion people. true false
5. India is projected to overtake China as the world's most populous true false
country by 2023.
6. The world population is projected to reach 10.4 billion by 2100. true false
7. Africa is expected to account for more than half of global true false
population growth by 2050.
8. The populations of all European countries are expected to true false
decrease by 2050.
9. Fertility in European countries has been below replacement level true false
for several decades.

C) Answer the following questions:

1. When is India projected to surpass China as the world's most populous country?
India is projected to overtake China as the world's most populous country around 2023.

2. How many countries or areas are expected to see a population decrease by 2050?
61 countries or areas are expected to see a population decrease by 2050.

3. What is the projected fertility rate in 2050?

The global fertility rate is projected to fall from 2.3 children per woman in 2021 to 2.1 in 2050.

4. What is the impact of international migration on population size?

International migration has a significant impact on population size, particularly in countries that
send or receive large numbers of economic migrants and those affected by refugee flows.