CF - Valuation Method
CF - Valuation Method
2001 2002
Revenues
Media Networks 9,569 9.733
Parks and Resorts 7,004 6,465
Studio Entertainment 5,952 6,622
Consumer Products 2,647 2,509
Interactive Media 0 0
Total Revenues 25,172 25,329
Operating Expenses
Media Networks -7.811 -8,747
Parks and Resorts -5,418 -5,296
Studio Entertainment -5,692 -6,349
Consumer Products -2,246 -2,115
Interactive Media 0 0
Total Operating Expenses -21,167 -22,507
Operating Income (Loss)
Media Networks 1,758 986
Parks and Resorts 1,586 1,169
Studio Entertainment 260 273
Consumer Products 401 394
Interactive Media 0 0
Total Operating Income 4,005 2,822
Corporate-L eve/ Income (Expenses)
Corporate and unallocated shared expenses -873 -213
Restructuring and impairment charges -1454 0
Other income (expense) 22 34
Net interest expense -417 -453
Earnings Before Taxes 1,283 2,190
Operating Expenses
Media Network -82.00% -90.00% -89.00% -78.00%
Parks & Resorts -77.00% -82.00% -85.00% -86.00%
Studio Enteertainment -96.00% -96.00% -92.00% -92.00%
Consumer Product -85.00% -84.00% -84.00% -79.00%
Interactive Media
Operating Income(loss)
Media Network 23.00% 10.00% 11.00% 22.00%
Parks & Resorts 29.00% 18.00% 15.00% 14.00%
Studio Enteertainment 5.00% 4.00% 8.00% 8.00%
Consumer Product 18.00% 16.00% 16.00% 21.00%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2%
11% 11% 10% 10% 11% 11% 10% 10%
0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2%
1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2%
4% 7% 7% 6% 3% 3%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4.20% 4.20% 4.10% 4.20% 4.50% 4.50% 44% 44%
-2% -2% -2% -2% -2% -1% -2% -2%
-16% -9% -10% -8% -11% -14% -11% -11%
0% -2% -2% -2% -2% -2% -2% -2%
0% -1% -2% -2% -2% -4% -3% -3%
-8% -6% -3% -2% -4% -4%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
-5.80% -3.80% -4.40% -4.20% -4.80% -5.50% -4.80% -4.80%
2013 2014 2015 3-yrAvg Std.Cev CALC
2% 2% 2% 1% 0%
10% 10% 10% 10% 0%
2% 2% 2% 1% 0%
2% 2% 2% 2% 1%
3% 3% 3% 6% 41%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
44% 4.40% 44% 44% 0.20%
-2% -2% -2% -2% 0%
-11% -11% -11% -11% 3%
-2% -2% -2% -2% 0%
-3% -3% -3% -3% 1%
-4% -4% -4% -4% -2%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
-4.80% -4.80% -4.80% -4.90% 0.70%
Exhibit 4
Items for Cash Flow Adjustments (all figures in millions of US dollars)
ACTUAL
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Depreciation & Amortization
Media Networks 924 180 169 172 175 179
Parks and Resorts 619 648 681 805 963 1,059
Studio Entertainment 50 46 39 22 26 30
Consumer Products 91 58 63 44 25 23
Interactive Media 0 0 0 0 0 0
Corporate 70 89 107 155 132 126
Total Depreciation & Amortization 1,754 1,021 1,059 1,198 1,321 1,417
Capital Expenditures
Media Networks -207 -151 -203 -221 -218 -220
Parks and Resorts -1,278 -636 -577 -1,008 -1,437 -915
Studio Entertainment -36 -37 -49 -39 -37 -41
Consumer Products -70 -58 -44 -14 -10 -16
Interactive Media 0 0 0 0 0 0
Corporate -204 -204 -176 -145 -111 -100
Total Capital Expenditures -1,795 -1,086 -1,049 -1,427 -1,813 -1,292
As a Percentage
Working capital requirements / Sales 3.2% 3.1% 1.9% 1.2% 0.8% -1.1%
Depreciation / Capital expenditures 98% 94% 101% 84% 73% 110%
ACTUAL FORECAST
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Parameter Value
Risk-Free Rate 3.50%
Market Risk Premium 5.50%
Beta 1.12
Cost of Equity for Disney 9.70%
Cost of Debt (Pre-Tax) 4%
Target Debt Ratio 30%
WACC 8.00%
Parameter Value
Cash Flow 2015 (Ex Terminal
6,699
Value)
Assumed Growth Rate 1.50%
WACC 8.00%
Terminal Value in 2015 105,229
Present Value of Terminal Value 71,743
Terminal Value as % of Enterprise
75%
Value
Year EBIT Taxes (35%)
1,754 - 1,795 25
1,021 - 1,086 342
1,059 - 1,049 - 65
1,198 - 1,427 158
1,321 - 1,813 97
1,417 - 1,292 641
1,459 - 1,566 90
1,582 - 1,578 - 1,070
1,631 - 1,753 - 141
1,713 - 2,110 - 109
1,795 - 1,961 45
1,916 - 2,094 - 51
2,036 - 2,226 - 51
2,166 - 2,367 - 56
2,262 - 2,472 - 42
Terminal Value Net Cash Flow Present Value of Cash
Flow
1,089
1,995
1,843
2,750
2,444
4,611
5,390
4,086
3,718
4,067
5,204 4,820
5,512 4,729
5,921 4,705
6,343 4,669
105,229 111,928 76,310
EV Value of Disney Net Debt Equity Value of Disney
9.2
8.6
8.0
7.5
1,894 35 7.1
Implied P/E Multiple
14.4
13.3
12.4
11.5
10.9
Metric Time Warner News Corp Viacom Avg Disney Denominator
P/E ratio 14.45 13.52 16.32 14.76 2.09
Price/Book ratio 1.19 1.68 2.94 1.94 20.98
Price/Sales ratio 1.5 1.39 2.13 1.67 20.1
Price/FCF ratio 15.17 16.09 16.22 15.83 2.15
EV/EBITDA ratio 8.1 9.07 9.75 8.97 4.91
Estimated Disney Share Price
30.85
40.63
33.63
33.99
28.97
PERPETUITY GROWTH
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%
5% $48.24 $52.77 $58.42 $65.70 $75.40 $88.98
6% $40.01 $42.98 $46.55 $50.90 $56.35 $63.36
7% $34.14 $36.21 $38.63 $41.50 $44.93 $49.13
WACC