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The document discusses the computation of control limits for forecast errors using MSE and evaluates the effectiveness of forecasts for monthly attendance at financial planning seminars over 24 months. It details methods such as tracking signals with MAD and control charts with 2s limits, using historical data for analysis. Additionally, it includes calculations for trend forecasting and seasonal adjustments for future attendance predictions.

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doaa atef
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10 views

solved problems (1)

The document discusses the computation of control limits for forecast errors using MSE and evaluates the effectiveness of forecasts for monthly attendance at financial planning seminars over 24 months. It details methods such as tracking signals with MAD and control charts with 2s limits, using historical data for analysis. Additionally, it includes calculations for trend forecasting and seasonal adjustments for future attendance predictions.

Uploaded by

doaa atef
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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A. Compute 2s control limits for forecast errors when the MSE is 9.0.

B. Monthly attendance at financial planning seminars for the past 24 months, and forecasts and errors for
those months, are shown in the following table. Determine if the forecast is working using these
approaches:
1. A tracking signal, beginning with month 10, updating MAD with exponential smoothing.
Use limits of and
2. A control chart with 2 s limits. Use data from the first eight months to develop the control chart, and
then evaluate the remaining data with the control chart.
5)
1 2 3 4 5 6 average R.I
fri 149 154 152 150 159 163 154.5 0.8
sat 250 255 260 268 273 276 263.7 1.3
sun 166 162 171 173 176 183 171.8 0.9
196.7
stnd.
period demand MA3 centered MA3 MA2 R.I
index
fri 149 sun 0.9
fri 0.8
sat 250 sat 1.35
188.3
sun 166 189.2 0.9
190
fri 154 188.3 190.9 0.8
191.7
sat 255 190 191 1.3
190.3
sun 162 191.7 190 0.9
189.7
fri 152 190.3 190.5 0.8
191.3
sat 260 189.7 192.8 1.3
194.3
sun 171 191.3 194 0.9
193.7
fri 150 194.3 195 0.8
196.3
sat 268 193.7 196.7 1.4
197
sun 173 196.3 198.5 0.9
200
fri 159 197 200.9 0.8
201.7
sat 273 200 202.2 1.4
202.7
sun 176 201.7 203.4 0.9
204
fri 163 202.7 204.5 0.8
205
sat 276 204

sun 183 205


7)
period demand t^2 Y*t
1 88 1 88
2 99 4 198
3 108 9 324
4 141.4 16 565.6
sum 10 436.4 30 1175.6

Y=66.8+16.92*t
T=5, y=151.4
Trend value of the first quarter of next year=151.4
Forcasted value=trend value*seasonal relative=151.4*1.1=166.54.
10)

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