Anglo-Chinese Junior College

H2 Mathematics 9758
JC 1 2024
Tutorial 19 Probability

Basic Questions
1 Two events A and B are independent and defined in the same finite sample space.
1 2 5
Given that P( A) = and P( A  B) = , show that P( B) = . Hence find P( A  B) .
4 3 9

2 The numbers of men and women studying Chemistry, Physics and Biology at a college
are given in the following table.
Chemistry Physics Biology
Men 12 16 32
Women 8 12 20

One of these students is chosen at random by a researcher. Events M, W, C and B are

defined as follows.
M: the student chosen is a man
W: the student chosen is a woman
C: the student chosen is studying Chemistry
B: the student chosen is studying Biology
Find
(i) P(W | B) , (ii) P( B | W ) , (iii) P( B  W ) .
State, with a reason in each case, whether W and B are independent, and whether M and
C are mutually exclusive.

3 For events A and B, it is given that P( A) = 0.3 , P( B) = 0.6 and P( B | A) = 0.4 .
(i) Find P( A  B) .
(ii) Find P( A  B) .
(iii) Determine whether A and B are independent events.
For a third event C, it is given that A and C are mutually exclusive, and P( B  C ) = 0.1 .
(iv) Find the possible range of values of P(C ) . [JJC/II/7/2011]

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ACJC 2024/25 H2 Mathematics (9758)

4 A game is played with an ordinary six-sided die. A player throws this die, and if the result
is 2, 3, 4 or 5, that result is the player’s score. If the result is 1 or 6, the player throws the
die a second time and the sum of the two numbers resulting from both throws is the
player’s score. Events A and B are defined as follows:
A: the player’s score is 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9 B: the player has two throws
1
Show that P( A) = . Hence find
3
(i) P( A  B) (ii) P( A  B) (iii) P( A | B) (iv) P( B | A) [N86/II/6]

5 In a simple model of the weather in October, each day is classified as either fine or rainy.
The probability that a fine day is followed by a fine day is 0.8. The probability that a
rainy day is followed by a fine day is 0.4. The probability that 1 October is fine is 0.75.
Find the probability that
(a) 2 October is fine and the probability that 3 October is fine,
(b) 3 October is rainy, given that 1 October is fine,
(c) 1 October is fine, given that 3 October is rainy.

Standard Questions
6 A study of the numbers of male and female children in families in a certain population is
being carried out.
(a) A simple model is that each child in any family is equally likely to be male or
female, and that the sex of each child is independent of the sex of any previous
children in the family. Using this model calculate the probability that, in a randomly
chosen family of 4 children,
(i) there will be 2 males and 2 females,
(ii) there will be exactly 1 female given that there is at least one female.
(b) An alternative model is that the first child in any family is equally likely to be male
or female, but that, for any subsequent children, the probability that they will be of
3
the same sex as the previous child is . Using this model calculate the probability
5
that, in a randomly chosen family of 4 children,
(i) all four will be of the same sex,
(ii) no two consecutive children will be of the same sex,
(iii) there will be 2 males and 2 females. [N94/II/6]

7 A Personal Identification Number (PIN) consists of 4 digits in order, each of which is

one of the digits 0, 1, 2, …, 9. Suzie has difficulty remembering her PIN. She tries to
remember her PIN and writes down what she thinks it is. The probability that the first
digit is correct is 0.8 and the probability that the second digit is correct is 0.86. The
probability that the first two digits are both correct is 0.72. Find the probability that
(i) the second digit is correct given that the first digit is correct,
(ii) the first digit is incorrect and the second digit is correct,
(iii) the second digit is incorrect given that the first digit is incorrect. [N98/II/6]

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 Tutorial 19

8 A group of fifteen people consists of one pair of sisters, one set of three brothers and ten
other people. The fifteen people are arranged randomly in a line.
(i) Find the probability that the sisters are next to each other. [2]
(ii) Find the probability that the brothers are not all next to one another. [2]
(iii) Find the probability that the sisters are next to each other and the brothers are all
next to one another. [2]
(iv) Find the probability that either the sisters are next to each other or the brothers are
all next to one another or both. [2]
Instead the fifteen people are arranged in a circle.
(v) Find the probability that the sisters are next to each other. [1]

9 Camera lenses are made by two companies, A and B. 60% of all lenses are made by A
and the remaining 40% by B. 5% of the lenses made by A are faulty. 7% of the lenses
made by B are faulty.
(i) One lens is selected at random. Find the probability that
(a) it is faulty, [2]
(b) it was made by A, given that it is faulty. [1]
(ii) Two lenses are selected at random. Find the probability that
(a) exactly one of them is faulty, [2]
(b) both were made by A, given that exactly one is faulty. [3]
[N2011/II/9]

10 The events A, B and C are such that P( A) = a , P( B) = b and P(C ) = c . A and B are
independent events. A and C are mutually exclusive events.
(i) Find an expression for P( A  B) and hence prove that A and B are independent
events. [2]
(ii) Find an expression for P( A  C ) . Draw a Venn diagram to illustrate the case
when A and C are also mutually exclusive events. (You should not show event B
on your diagram). [2]
2 1
You are now given that A and C are not mutually exclusive, P( A) = , P( B  C ) =
5 5
1
and P( A  B  C ) = .
10
(iii) Find exactly the maximum and minimum possible values of P( A  B) . [4]
[H2/2018/II/7]

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ACJC 2024/25 H2 Mathematics (9758)

11 Gerri collects characters given away in packets of breakfast cereal. There are four
different characters: Horse, Rider, Dog and Bird. Each character is made in four different
colours: Orange, Yellow, Green and White. Gerri has collected 56 items; the numbers of
each character and colour are shown in the table.
Orange Yellow Green White
Horse 1 1 3 4
Rider 1 1 7 5
Dog 3 7 1 6
Bird 4 5 6 1

(i) Gerri chooses two items at random.

(a) Find the probability that both of the items are Horses, but neither of the items
is Orange. [1]
(b) Find the probability that Gerri’s two items include exactly one Dog and
exactly one item that is Yellow. [3]
(ii) Gerri has two favourites among the 16 possible colour/character combinations. The
1
probability of choosing these two at random from the 56 items is . Write down
77
all the possibilities for Gerri’s two favourite colour/character combinations. [3]
[H2/2019/II/8 (modified)]

1 1 1
12 (a) Events A and B are such that P( A) = , P( B | A) = and P( A  B) = .
3 4 6
Find
(i) P( A  B) , [2]
(ii) P( B) . [3]
(b) A man writes 5 letters, one each to A, B, C, D and E. Each letter is placed in a
separate envelope and sealed. He then addresses the envelopes, at random, one each
to A, B, C, D and E.
(i) Find the probability that the letter to A is in the correct envelope and the letter
to B is in an incorrect envelope. [1]
(ii) Find the probability that the letter to A is in the correct envelope, given that
the letter to B is in an incorrect envelope. [3]
(iii) Find the probability that both of the letters to A and B are in incorrect
envelopes. [5]
[N2001/II/11]

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 Tutorial 19

13 In a game, a computer randomly chooses 12 shapes from 11 circles and 17 rectangles.

The number of rectangles chosen is denoted by R.
(i) Show that P ( R = 1)  P ( R = 2 ) . [2]
The number of rectangles available is now increased by r. The computer randomly
chooses 12 shapes from the 11 circles and (17 + r ) rectangles. The probability that 4
rectangles are chosen is now 15 times the probability that 3 rectangles are chosen.
(ii) Find the value of r. [5]
[N2020/II/8]

Assignment Questions
1 A certain disease is present in 1 in 200 of the population. In a mass screening programme
a quick test for the disease is used, but the test is not totally reliable. For someone who
does have the disease there is a probability of 0.9 that the test will prove positive, whereas
for someone who does not have the disease there is a probability of 0.02 that the test will
prove positive.
One person is selected at random and tested.
(i) Draw a tree diagram to illustrate one application of the test. [1]
(ii) Find the probability that the person has the disease and the test is positive. [1]
(iii) Find the probability that the test is negative. [2]
(iv) Given that the test is positive, find the probability that the person has the disease.
[3]
[N97/II/6(a)]

2 A box contains 25 apples, of which 20 are red and 5 are green. Of the red apples, 3 contain
maggots and of the green apples, 1 contains maggots. Two apples are chosen at random
from the box. Find, in any order, the probability that
(a) both apples contain maggots, [1]
(b) both apples are red and at least one contains maggots, [2]
(c) at least one apple contains maggots, given that both apples are red, [3]
(d) the probability that both apples are red given that at least one apple is red. [3]
[J86/II/6]

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ACJC 2024/25 H2 Mathematics (9758)

Answers
1
1
9
5 1 18
2 (i) (ii) (iii)
13 2 25
3 (i) 0.12 (ii) 0.28 (iii) Independent (iv) 0.1  P ( C )  0.28
1 1 1 1
4 (i) (ii) (iii) (iv)
6 2 2 4
21
5 (a) 0.7; 0.68 (b) 0.28 (c)
32
3 4 27 8 38
6 (a)(i) (ii) (b)(i) (ii) (iii)
8 15 125 125 125
7 (i) 0.9 (ii) 0.14 (iii) 0.3
2 34 2 43 1
8 (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v)
15 35 455 273 7
9 (i)(a) 0.058 (b) 0.517 (ii)(a) 0.109272 (b) 0.313
2 1
10 (i) 1 − a − b + ab (ii) 1 − a − c (iii) ,
15 3
1 21
11 (i)(a) (b)
55 110
5 7 3 3 13
12 (a)(i) (ii) (b)(i) (ii) (iii)
6 12 20 16 20
13 (ii) r = 6