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Expanded Discrete Probability and Counting

The document covers key concepts in discrete probability and counting techniques, including basic probability rules, Bayes' Theorem, expected value, variance, and advanced counting techniques like recurrence relations. It provides examples to illustrate the application of these concepts, such as calculating probabilities with a fair die and using Bayes' Theorem to determine the source of defective items. Additionally, it discusses the inclusion-exclusion principle for counting and provides an example of counting integers divisible by certain numbers.

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Venky 12A
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7 views2 pages

Expanded Discrete Probability and Counting

The document covers key concepts in discrete probability and counting techniques, including basic probability rules, Bayes' Theorem, expected value, variance, and advanced counting techniques like recurrence relations. It provides examples to illustrate the application of these concepts, such as calculating probabilities with a fair die and using Bayes' Theorem to determine the source of defective items. Additionally, it discusses the inclusion-exclusion principle for counting and provides an example of counting integers divisible by certain numbers.

Uploaded by

Venky 12A
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Discrete Probability and Counting Techniques

4.2 Probability Theory


Probability theory is the study of randomness and uncertainty. It quantifies the likelihood of
an event occurring.

Basic Probability Rules:


1. Probability of an event A: P(A) = (Number of favorable outcomes) / (Total outcomes).
2. Complement Rule: P(A') = 1 - P(A).
3. Addition Rule: P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B).
4. Multiplication Rule: P(A ∩ B) = P(A) * P(B), if A and B are independent.

Example:
If a fair die is rolled, what is the probability of rolling an even number?
Solution: Favorable outcomes = {2, 4, 6}, Total outcomes = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
P(Even) = 3/6 = 1/2 = 0.5.

4.3 Bayes' Theorem


Bayes' Theorem is used to update probabilities based on new evidence. It is given by:

P(A | B) = (P(B | A) * P(A)) / P(B)

Example:
A factory has two machines producing items: Machine A produces 60% of items and has a
5% defect rate, while Machine B produces 40% of items and has a 10% defect rate.
What is the probability that a randomly selected defective item came from Machine A?

Solution:
Let D be the event that an item is defective.
P(D | A) = 0.05, P(D | B) = 0.10, P(A) = 0.60, P(B) = 0.40.
Using Bayes' Theorem:
P(A | D) = (P(D | A) * P(A)) / (P(D | A) * P(A) + P(D | B) * P(B))
= (0.05 * 0.60) / (0.05 * 0.60 + 0.10 * 0.40)
= 0.03 / (0.03 + 0.04) = 0.03 / 0.07 = 3/7 ≈ 0.4286 (42.86%).

4.4 Expected Value and Variance


The expected value E[X] of a random variable X represents its average value over many
trials:

E[X] = Σ x * P(X = x)

Variance measures the spread of a distribution:


Var(X) = E[X^2] - (E[X])^2.

Example:
A fair die is rolled. Let X be the outcome.
E[X] = (1*1/6) + (2*1/6) + (3*1/6) + (4*1/6) + (5*1/6) + (6*1/6)
= (1+2+3+4+5+6) / 6 = 3.5.

4.5 Advanced Counting Techniques: Recurrence Relations


Recurrence relations define sequences in terms of previous terms.

Example:
Fibonacci sequence: F(n) = F(n-1) + F(n-2), with F(0) = 0, F(1) = 1.

Example:
A person can climb 1 or 2 steps at a time. How many ways can they climb a staircase with n
steps?
Solution: Let f(n) be the number of ways. We can either:
1. Take 1 step and then solve f(n-1).
2. Take 2 steps and then solve f(n-2).
Thus, f(n) = f(n-1) + f(n-2), similar to Fibonacci sequence.

4.10 Applications of Inclusion-Exclusion


Applications include:
1. Counting surjective functions.
2. Counting derangements.
3. Probability of at least one event occurring.
4. Euler’s Totient Function (coprime counting).
5. Hamiltonian Paths in Graph Theory.

Example:
Find the number of integers from 1 to 100 that are divisible by 2 or 3.

Solution:
|A| = Numbers divisible by 2 = 100/2 = 50.
|B| = Numbers divisible by 3 = 100/3 = 33.
|A ∩ B| = Numbers divisible by 6 = 100/6 = 16.

Using Inclusion-Exclusion:
|A ∪ B| = |A| + |B| - |A ∩ B|
= 50 + 33 - 16 = 67.

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