INTRODUCTION

EHS 319 – Introduction to Demography is a two unit credit course

available to all students of Bachelor of Science (B.Sc.) Environmental
Health, and other related programmes.
Demography is concerned with virtually everything that influences, or
can be influenced by population size, distribution, process, structure or
characteristics.
Worldwide issues are really the sum of millions, indeed billions, of
individual decisions and personal events, for example, everyone
experiences at least two of the basic demographic processes – they are
born and they die. In between, most will have children of their own; and
some will migrate, at least once. In addition, there chances that you will
marry, have children, and divorce. The kinds of support you can expect
in old age, the price of gas at the pump, the lines at the supermarket, and
the kind of housing you will find, are only a few examples of how our
lives rely on demography.
It is interesting to know that population changes affect our lives in a
variety of ways,
many of which may seem to be unrelated to population at first glance.
One of the important reasons for studying demography is that
population growth can
compound and magnify, if not create a wide variety of social, economic,
and political
problems. Weeks (1998) summarised some of the problems associated
with the
growth of the world‘s population as: food security, pollution, inflation,
poor housing,
reduced income, increased energy use, unemployment, illiteracy, and
lack of
individual freedom.
The importance of studying demography is to identify changes within
the population
such as: the growth of the population, mortality and morbidity rates,
migration and
also marriage.

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In the subject matter (scope) of demography, we study: size,
composition of
population, distribution of population, labour force and population
policy. To
understand the size, composition and distribution of populations,
demographers must
study natality, morbidity and migration, and finally, he must search the
social
significance of statistics he has studied under these headings.
Demography is important to the Environmental Health Officer because
it describes
human population in all the variables including: age, sex, distribution in
space and
other characteristic factors in relation to disease and other factors. It also
identifies and
explains the age in cohorts and this helps in correlation of diseases and
other
conditions in the population and therefore facilitates targeted control
and prevention
measures.
WHAT YOU ARE TO LEARN IN THIS COURSE
The course content consists of a unit of course guide which tell you
briefly what the
course is about, what course materials you need and how to work with
such materials.
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It also gives you some guideline for the time you are expected to spend
on each unit in
order to complete it successfully.
It guides you concerning your tutor-marked assignment which will be
placed in the
assignment file. Regular tutorial classes related to the course will be
conducted and it
is advisable for you to attend these sessions. It is expected that the
course will prepare

2
you for challenges you are likely to meet in the field of Environmental
Health.
COURSE AIM
The aim of the course is to provide you with an understanding of
demography. It is
intended to let you appreciate the uses of demographic studies in the
sustainable
development of Nigeria.
COURSE OBJECTIVES
To achieve the aim set out, the course has a set of objectives. Each unit
has specified
objectives which are stated at the beginning of the unit. You are advised
to read the
objectives before you study the unit because you may need to make
reference to them
during your study to check on your own progress. It is also good that
you endeavour to
check the unit objectives after completion of each unit to decipher level
of
accomplishment.
After going through the course, you should be able to:
• explain the concept of demography
• develop an understanding of population trends globally
• describe data collection methods; and participate in demographic data
collection
• calculate some demographic measures
• interpret correctly demographic phenomena and implications for
public health
• apply the knowledge of demography to public health in general and
epidemiology in particular.
• Use demographic terms, methods and measures for the formulation of
relevant
policies.
WORKING THROUGH THIS COURSE
To complete this course, you are expected to read each study unit, as
well as other

3
related materials.. Each unit contains self-assessment exercises. In the
course you
would be required to submit assignment for assessment. At the end of
the course there
is a final examination. The course should take about 15 weeks to
complete.
Listed below are the components of the course, what you have to do and
how to
allocate your time to each unit, in order to complete the course
successfully and
timely.
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The course demands that you should spend good time to read and you
are advised to
attend tutorial session where you will have the opportunity of
comparing knowledge
with colleagues.
COURSE MATERIALS
The main components of the course materials are:
1. The course guide
2. Study units
3. Textbooks and references
4. Assignment file
5. Presentation schedule.
STUDY UNITS
The study units in this course are as follows:
Module 1: Principles of Demography
Unit 1 Definitions and History of Demography
Unit 2 Concept of Demography
Unit 3 Introduction to Principles of Demography
Module 2 Methods in Demography
Unit 1 Overview of Methods in Demography
Unit 2 Concept of Population and Sources of Population Data
Unit 3 Population Dynamics and Health Implications
Unit 4 Population Structure and Population Movement
Module 3 Census

4
Unit 1 Census: Types and Methods
Unit 2 Census Principles and Practice
Unit 3 Application of Census Data
Unit 4 Population Data and the Planning of Social Services
Module 4 Demographic Transition and Health Management
Unit 1 Concept of Demographic Transition
Unit 2 Demographic Transitions and Disease Patterns
Unit 3 Demographic Transitions and Health Services
Unit 4 Indices of Population, Health and Development
In Module 1, the first unit is focused on the definitions and history of
demography.
The second unit deals with the concept, objectives and people involved
in
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demography. Unit three is about the uses, major areas of demography
and factors of
population change.
The first unit of Module 2 presents theories in demography and gives an
overview of
methods in demography, The second unit deals with human population
growth and
factors that limit population, The third unit has to do with the dynamics
of population
and their effect on health, while the last unit of the module discusses
population
structure and population movement and the implications for
development.
In Module 3, Census types, principles, methods and procedures are
treated in units 1, 2
and 3, while Unit 4 deals with the uses of population data in the
planning of social
services.
Module 4 introduces you to demographic transition and health
management. Units1 to
3 are concerned with demographic transitions and the effect on disease
patterns and

5
health services. Unit 4 deals with the indices of population, health and
development.
Each unit consists of one or two weeks work and includes an
introduction, objectives,
main content, reading materials, exercises, conclusion, summary, tutor-
marked
assignments (TMAs), references and other resources. The various units
direct you to
work on exercises related to the required reading. In general, the
exercises test you on
the materials you have just covered or require you to apply it in a way
that will assist
you to evaluate your own progress and to reinforce your understanding
of the material.
Alongside the TMAs, these exercises will help you achieve the stated
learning
objectives of the individual units and course as a whole.
PRESENTATION SCHEDULE
Your course materials have important dates for the early and timely
completion and
submission of your TMAs and attending tutorials. You are expected to
submit all your
assignments by the stipulated time and date and guard against falling
behind in your
work.
ASSESSMENT
There are three parts to the course assessment and these include: self-
assessment
exercises, tutor-marked assignments and the written examination or end
of course
examination. It is advisable that you do all the exercises. In tackling the
assignments,
you are expected to use the information, knowledge and techniques
gathered during
the course. The assignments must be submitted to your facilitators for
formal

6
assessment in line with the deadlines stated in the presentation schedule
and
assignment file. The work you submit to your tutor for assessment will
count for 30%
of your total course work. At the end of the course you will need to sit
for a final end
of course examination of about three hours duration. This examination
will count for
70% of your total course mark.
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TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT
The TMAs is a continuous component of your course. It accounts for
30% of the total
score. You will be given four (4) TMAs to answer. Three of this must
be answered
before you are allowed to sit for the end of course examination. The
TMAs would be
given to you by your facilitator and returned after you have done the
assignment..
However, it is desirable that you read the research more into your
references, which
will give you a wider view point of the subject.
Make sure that each assignment reaches your facilitator on or before the
deadline
given in the presentation schedule and assignment file. If for any reason
you cannot
complete your work on time, contact your facilitator before the
assignment is due to
discuss the possibility of an extension. Extension will not be granted
after the due date
except for exceptional circumstances.
FINAL EXAMINATION AND GRADING
The end of course examination for this course will be for about three
hours and it has
a value of 70% of the total course work. The examination will consist of
questions,

7
which will reflect the types of self-assessment exercises and tutor-
marked assignment
problems you have previously encountered. The examination covers
information from
all parts of the course.
COURSE MARKING SCHEME
Table 1 lays out how the actual marking scheme is broken down.
Table 1: Course Marking Scheme
Assignment Marks
Assignment 1 – 4 Four assignments, best three marks of the
four count 10% each of the 30% course
Marks
End of course examination 70% of overall course marks
Total 100% of course materials
FACILITATORS/TUTORS AND TUTORIALS
There are 15 hours of tutorials provided in support of this course. You
will be notified
of the dates, times and location of the tutorials as well as the name and
the phone
number of your facilitator, as soon as you are allocated a tutorial group.
Your facilitator will mark and comment on your assignments, keep a
close watch on
your progress and any difficulties you might face and provide assistance
to you
during the course. You are expected to mail your tutor-marked
assignment to your
facilitator before the scheduled date (at least two working days are
required). They
will be marked by your tutor and returned to you as soon as possible.
Do not hesitate
to contact your facilitator by telephone or e-mail if you need assistance.
10
The following might be circumstances in which you would find
assistance necessary,
hence you would have to contact your facilitator if:
• you do not understand any part of the study unit

8
• you have difficulty with the assignment/exercise
• you have a question or problem with an assignment or with the
grading of an assignment.
You should endeavour to attend the tutorials. This is the only chance to
have face to
face contact with your course facilitator and to ask questions which are
answered
instantly. You can raise any problem encountered in the course of your
study.
To gain more benefit from course tutorials prepare a question list before
attending
them. You will learn a lot from participating actively in discussions.
SUMMARY
Introduction to demography is a course that intends to introduce you to
the scientific
study of human populations or population studies.
At the end of the course you should have a basic understanding of
important concepts
such as age structure, fertility, nuptiality, mortality and morbidity,
migration,
population projections, and demographic transition. You should also be
familiar with
data collection methods used in demography as well as the most
important
demographic measures. You will calculate some demographic measures
and interpret
correctly demographic phenomena and implications for public health.
In addition, you will be able to answer questions on the subject such as:
• State four objectives of demography.
• List the quantitative and qualitative aspects of demography.
• What are the factors of population change?
• State three (3) uses of demography.
• How does population affect the environment?
• Describe the effect of modernisation on pattern of disease occurrence.
The above list is just a few of the questions expected and is by no means
exhaustive.

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To gain most from this course, you are advised to consult relevant
books to widen
your knowledge on the topic.
In the words of John Weeks (1994) ―The applied uses of demography
may help put
demography in front of you for the rest of your life. You are likely to
encounter
demographics in magazines, newspapers, television, and in the course of
your work.
As that happens, please use your demographic literacy to keep track of
local, national,
and International population trends, because demographic events will
contribute to
many of the major social changes you will witness over your lifetime,
just as you will
continue to contribute to those population trends with your own
behaviour.
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I wish you success in the course. It is my hope you will find it both
illuminating and
useful.
GOOD LUCK!
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MAIN
COURSE
CONTENTS PAGE
Module 1 Principles of Demography ................................ 13
Unit 1 Definitions and History of Demography ............ 13
Unit 2 Concept of Demography ..................................... 18
Unit 3 Introduction to Principles of Demography ......... 25
Module 2 Methods in Demography .................................. 34
Unit 1 Overview of Methods in Demography ............... 34
Unit 2 Concept of Population and Sources of
Population Data .................................................. 48
Unit 3 Population Dynamics and Health
Implications ........................................................ 65

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Unit 4 Population Structure and Population
Movement ........................................................... 76
Module 3 Census ................................................................ 85
Unit 1 Census: Types and Methods ............................... 85
Unit 2 Census Principles and Practice ........................... 100
Unit 3 Application of Census Data ................................ 109
Unit 4 Population Data and the Planning of
Social Services ................................................... 124
Module 4 Demographic Transition and Health
Management ...................................................... 124
Unit 1 Concept of Demographic Transition .................. 124
Unit 2 Demographic Transitions and
Disease Patterns .................................................. 128
Unit 3 Demographic Transitions and Health Services ,,,,,, 134
Unit 4 Indices of Population, Health and
Development ...................................................... 140
i
MODULE 1 PRINCIPLES OF DEMOGRAPHY
Unit 1 Definitions and History of Demography
Unit 2 Concept of Demography
Unit 3 Introduction to Principles of Demography
UNIT 1 DEFINITIONS AND HISTORY OF DEMOGRAPHY
CONTENTS
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Objectives
1.3 Main Content
1.3.1 What is Demography?
1.3.2 Other Definitions of Demography
1.3.3 History of Demography
1.4 Conclusion
1.5 Summary
1.6 Tutor - Marked Assignment
1.7 References/Further Reading
1.8 Possible Answers to Self-Assessment Exercise

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1.1 INTRODUCTION
Imagine that you are in a big city with a lot of people moving about, and
it seems as if
every space is occupied. Can you guess the number of people in that
city? How would
you know the number of men, women and children; the level of
education and the
occupation of everybody in this city? The answers to these questions
can only come
with the help of demography. So, what is demography?
Demography is the science of human population. Population here
means: the
inhabitants of a given area, but perhaps most importantly, the human
inhabitants of the
earth. In this unit, we shall look at the various definitions of
demography to help your
understanding of the subject.
1.2 OBJECTIVES
At the end of this unit, you should be able to:
• define demography
• give various definitions of demography
• write a brief history of demography.
1
1.3 DEFINITIONS AND HISTORY OF DEMOGRAPHY
1.3.1 What is Demography?
Demography is the scientific study of the characteristics of human
populations.
Demography is usually defined as the study of human populations –
their size, growth,
density and distribution – and statistics regarding birth, marriage,
disease and death. It
is also sometimes called population studies or human ecology.
Demography is
considered to be a branch within the field of sociology (the study and
classification of

12
human societies).Vocabulary.com 2012 says that it is the branch of
sociology that
studies the characteristics of human populations. However,
Demographers have often
suffered from identity crises when trying to locate themselves within a
scientific
discipline. By nature, demography is a multi-disciplinary subject,
which emphasises
rigorous data analysis using specific methods accompanied by theory
that is often
associated with sociology, statistics, anthropology, economics and
public health,
among others. According to some scholars, health demography has
become a
discipline in its own right.
Biggs, Kapicka and Lundgren (1998), stated that ‘the study of
population growth is the
subject of demography’. Demography is the study of population. It
looks at everything
that influences population size, distribution, processes, and the influence
that change in
population has on other contemporary issues. Demography is the study
of the changes
in numbers of births, deaths, marriages, and cases of disease in a
community over a
period of time.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
List the key ideas of demography
1.3.2 Other Definitions of Demography
• Demography is the study of population (Chambers, 1972).
• Demography is the statistical study of human populations (Oxford
dictionary,
1999).
• Demography is the study of information in figures (Statistics) about
the

13
population of an area or country and how these figures vary with time
(Procter,
1978).
• Demography is the study of the population in its static and dynamic
aspects.
The static aspects include characteristics such as composition by age,
sex, race,
marital status, economic characteristics. The dynamic aspects are
fertility,
mortality, nuptiality, and migration (John Hopkins University, 2008).
• Demography is the study of size, composition, growth and
distribution of
human population (Henslin, 2009). ˇ Demography is the statistical
study of human populations and sub-populations.
It can be a very general science that can be applied to any kind of
dynamic
human population (Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2012).
2
• Demography is the study of human population dynamics. It
encompasses the
study of the size, structure and distribution of populations, and how
populations
change over time (Wordiq.com).
• Demography is the statistical study of all populations (Webster‘s-
online dictionary,
2012).
• Demography is the statistical study of the characteristics of human
populations,
such as size, growth, density, distribution, and vital statistics (Columbia
Encyclopedia).
• Demography is the statistical science dealing with the distribution,
density, vital
statistics, etc. of human populations (www.yourdictionary.com)
Demography is the study of the size, growth, age and geographical
distribution of a human population(economics.about.com).
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

14
Write out any three different definitions of demography.
1.3.3 History of Demography
Demography had always existed. Throughout history, rulers have been
interested in
the number of population. This was important for taxation purposes and
also, the
power of several countries laid on a large number of men fit for military
service. In
addition, many philosophers pondered about the meaning of the number
and structure
of population.
Wikipedia (2009) outlined that: Demographic thoughts can be traced
back to antiquity,
and are present in many civilisations and cultures, like: Ancient Greece,
Rome, India
and China. For example, in ancient Greece, this can be found in the
writings of
Herodotus, Hippocrates, Plato and Aristotle. The Natural and Political
Observations
... upon the Bills of Mortality (1662) of John Graunt contains a primitive
form of life
table. Mathematicians, such as Edmund Halley, developed the life table
as the basis
for life insurance mathematics. Richard Price was credited with the first
textbook on
life contingencies published in 1771, followed later by Augustus de
Morgan, On the
Application of Probabilities to Life Contingencies‘ (1838). The credit of
fusing two
Greek words to give the term demography goes to Achilles Guillard in
1885.
At the end of the 18th century, Thomas Malthus concluded that, if
unchecked,
populations would be subject to exponential growth. He feared that
population growth

15
would tend to outstrip growth in food production, leading to ever-
increasing famine
and poverty. He is seen as the intellectual father of ideas of
overpopulation and the
limits to growth. Later, more sophisticated and realistic models were
presented by
Benjamin Gompertz and Verhuist.
The period 1860-1910 can be characterised as a period of transition
wherein
demography emerged from statistics as a separate field of interest.
Within this period,
great demographers contributed to the development of demography and
to the toolkit
of methods and techniques of demographic analyses. Like many
branches of the
3
sciences, demography began in the 19th century (precisely 1875-80),
when the general
craze for cataloguing information about the world really took off
(dictionary.reference.com).
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
Mention some important periods in the history of demography.
1.4 CONCLUSION
Demography is the scientific study of the characteristics of human
populations.
Demography shows the fluctuations created by births, deaths, and
migration; and as a
discipline, seeks to present a statistical description of human population
with respect to
the structure of the population and demographic events that take place
in the
population.
1.5 SUMMARY
In this unit, we learnt that: Demography is also known as population
studies; and is a

16
branch of Sociology. Demography is defined as the study of size,
composition, growth
and distribution of human population. It looks at everything that
influences population
size, distribution, processes, and the influence that change in population,
has on other
contemporary issues. We also looked at various other definitions of
demography. You
saw that demography dates back to antiquity, but the 19thcentury is very
important in
the history of demography. All through the ages, the number of
population and its
development has been of interest to rulers, scientists and philosophers
alike. In the
next unit, you will learn more about what demography really is.
1.6 TUTOR–MARKED ASSIGNMENT
i. What is demography?
ii. Write four other different definitions of demography.
iii. What period would you describe as the most important in the history
of
demography?
4
1.7 REFERENCES/FURTHER READING
Biggs A. Kapicka C. & Lundgen L. (1998).Biology: the Dynamics of
Life.
U.S.A: Glencoe/ McGraw-Hill. Columbia Encyclopedia
(2012).―Demography.
:http://www.oup.co.uk/best.textbooks/geography/rowland. Accessed
12/07/2012.
Dictionary.reference.com/browse/demography
economics.about.com/od/termsbeginningwithd/g/demography.htm.Acce
ssed12/07/
2012. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography. Accessed 2009.
Henslin, J. M. (2009). Essentials of Sociology: A Down-to- Earth
Approach. (8thed.). U.S.A.: Allyn and Bacon.

17
http://www.geog.ucsb.edu/~sweeney/g143/lectures/Module_1_W
2003.PDF.
Accessed 22/07/2012
John Hopkins University (2008).Demography. John Hopkins University
Press.
Macdonald, A.M. (1972). Editor: Chambers Twentieth Century
Dictionary. W & R
Chambers Ltd.
Oxford English Dictionary (1999).Oxford University Press.
Procter, Paul (1978). Longman Dictionary of Contemporary English.
www.answers.com/topic/demographic. Accessed 15/07/2012
www.businessdictionary.com/definition/demography.html.
Accessed15/07/2012.
www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/demography. Accessed15/07/2012
www.websters-online-dictionary.org/definition/Demography. Accessed
15/07/2012.
www.wordiq.com/definition/Demography. Accessed15/07/2012
www.yourdictionary.com/demography.Accessed 12/07/2012.
5
1.8 POSSIBLE ANSWERS TO SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
• Key ideas of demography
Population studies, information, data, characteristics, vital statistics,
size,
structure (age, sex, occupation), dynamics, distribution, composition,
growth
• Some definitions of demography
The study of human population dynamics. It encompasses the size,
structure
and distribution of populations, and how populations change over time
The study of the population in its static and dynamic aspects. The static
aspects
include characteristics such as composition by age, sex, race, marital
status,
economic characteristics. The dynamic aspects are fertility, mortality,
nuptiality, and migration
• Some important periods in the history of demography

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Ancient Greek period
Malthus 18th Century period
Transition period
The 19th Century period
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UNIT 2 CONCEPT OF DEMOGRAPHY
CONTENTS
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Objectives
2.3 Main Content
2.3.1 Concept of Demography
2.3.2 Objectives of Demography
2.3.3 People Involved in Demography
2.4 Conclusion
2.5 Summary
2.6 Tutor- Marked Assignment
2.7 References/Further Reading
2.8 Possible Answers to Self-Assessment Exercise
2.1 INTRODUCTION
Demography is defined as the scientific study of populations. It is clear
from the
definitions in unit 1 that demography is a dynamic and developing
discipline and it can
be studied either from its technical aspects which involve statistical
analysis of the
population size and its composition and factors responsible for its
growth and its
distribution (which is a narrow view of the subject), or from the societal
aspects which
are concerned with the relationship between demographic processes on
the one hand
and, social, economic, political. biological and ecological factors on the
other.
This study of populations has a purpose and a lot of people are involved.
Demography

19
- counts, interprets, and seeks explanations for aggregate population
statistics.
Take a look at the figure 1.
A
i
B
Fig. 1: A Crowded Street (A) and a completely built up area (B)
Source: Photographs by author
Figure 1 depicts the picture you were asked to imagine at the beginning
of unit 1. It is
only with the knowledge and understanding of demography that a
correct explanation
of these photographs could be given.
Although demography is a vast area of study, this unit will assist you to
have a general
idea of the subject.
2.2 OBJECTIVES
At the end of this unit, you should be able to:
• explain the concept of demography
• state the objectives of demography
• identify people involved in demography.
2.3 CONCEPT OF DEMOGRAPHY
2.3.1 Concept of Demography
The word demography comes from two ancient Greek words, demos,
meaning "the
people," and graphy meaning "writing about or recording something" or
graph
meaning shape or description. Demography literally translated from the
Greek term
means "writing about the people"; a description of people.
Demography is the study of the size, composition, dynamics and
distribution of human
population. Such study is important because the size of the aggregate
(combination) of
persons that constitute the population, its standard of living, its social
system and

20
culture are all interrelated and have serious implications for the health
and well- being
of members of that population (Abanobi, 2004).
ii
Business dictionary (Online, 2012), describes Demography as the
(study) systematic
research, examination, identification and understanding of both
quantitative and
qualitative aspects of human population. Quantitative aspects include
composition,
density, distribution, growth, movement, size, and structure of the
population.
Qualitative aspects are the sociological factors such as education
quality, crime,
development, diet and nutrition, race, social class, wealth, wellbeing.
On the other
hand, the United Nations (UN) Demographic Dictionary describes
demography as the
scientific study of human populations primarily with respect to size,
their, structure
and their development. Often a report is produced at the end of a study
that
summarises its findings and may also include recommendations on the
next step(s) to
be taken.
Demographic analysis can be applied to whole societies or to groups
defined by
criteria such as education, nationality, religion and ethnicity.
Institutionally,
demography is usually considered a field of sociology, though there are
a number of
independent demography departments. Formal demography limits its
object of study
to the measurement of population processes, while the broader field of
social

21
demography - population studies also analyse the relationships between
economic,
social, cultural and biological processes influencing a population
(www.sociologyguide.com).
Demography therefore is concerned with the current size and
characteristics of human
populations, how they were attained, and how they are changing.
Changes in the
characteristics of human population are governed by the three main
population
processes: Fertility, Mortality and Migration. In turn, when these
processes act, there
are corresponding population outcomes which include changes in
Population Size, Age
and Sex Structure, and Spatial Organisation. Abanobi (2004) further
said that one of the
importance of demographic data, which has grave implications for
levels of health
status outcome of a population, is in population planning. This concept
refers to actions
undertaken by a society or the government of a nation to determine the
growth and size
of population it desires with the view of enabling its members enjoy
fulfilling, healthy
and productive lives. This is achieved by maintaining favourable
equilibrium between
the size and rate of growth of population, and the available resources
and productive
capabilities in terms of food supply, health services, educational
facilities, employment
opportunities, and pressure on environment.
While these main processes are the primary concern of demographers, it
proves
invaluable should these things not be detached from their relationships
with other

22
disciplines. As such, demography draws and contributes to the other
fields of sciences
ranging from Health and Medicine and Telegraphic to the social
sciences such as
Sociology, Anthropology and Political Science.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
Differentiate between quantitative and qualitative demography
iii
2.3.2 Objectives of Demography
Stockwell (1973), cited in Ogunbameru (2009), stated that the science
of population
or demography has four broad objectives namely:
a. Ascertaining the size, composition and distribution of the population
in any
given area of human habitation
b. Observing, measuring and describing changes in sizes, composition
and
distribution over time
c. Observing, measuring and describing the process through which such
changes are being affected and
d. Analysing the underlying determinants and consequences of such
changes.
Demography shows the fluctuations created by births, deaths, and
migration; and
gives information on the individual characteristics such as sex and age
of each
individual. Individuals make up populations and therefore, the sum of
these individual
quantitative and qualitative characteristics constitutes the demography.
Demography
as a discipline, therefore, seeks to present a statistical description of
human population
with respect to the structure of the population – the number of the
population,
composition by sex, age, marital status and demographic events (that is:
births, deaths,

23
marriage and migration) that take place in the population. From the
counts of
individuals in each sex and age group, secondary characteristics such as
birth and
death rates can be derived (Ogunbameru, 2009).
A common related word is demographics, referring to the raw statistical
data that are
used for analysis. Demographics are current statistical characteristics of
a population.
These types of data are used widely in sociology (and especially in the
subfield of
demography). Demographics mean the application of demographic
science to practical
problems; any applied use of population statistics. Also demographical -
of or relating
to demography: a portion of a population, especially considered as
consumers.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
State four (4) objectives of demography.
2.3.3 People involved in Demography
Demography is a scientific study of the population. The people who
study populations
and their characteristics and needs are Mathematicians called
Demographers.
Demographers can study any type of population – plant, animal or
human.
Demographers study when we are born and when we die, as well as
many of the really
important events in our lives that occur in between (Poston and
Bournier, 2010).
Wikiversity (2009) stated that Demographers compute indicators that
measure
population size and structure, the levels of mortality, fertility and
migration processes
and certain aspects of demographic behaviour such as marriages,
divorces,

24
cohabitation etc. In other words, Demographers primarily handle
information about
basic life events like birth and death rates, migration, employment,
divorce,
iv
contraceptive use, hunger, economics, access to running water,
education, life
expectancy, and so on.
The major professionals involved in demography are Demographers.
Others are:
Geographers, Sociologists, Planners, Economists, Statisticians, Health
and Medicals.
Also, International organisations like: UNICEF –United Nations
Children‘s Fund,
UNFPA –United Nations Population Funds, UNDP – United Nations
Development
Programme, and WHO –World Health Organisation, etc. (Agencies of
the United
Nations: The United Nations operates several organisations with various
populationrelated
competencies, including the Commission on Population and
Development, the
United Nations Population Division and the United Nations Statistics
Division);
National Population Commissions; and other Non-governmental
organisations are
involved in demography.
UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund, is an international
development agency
that promotes the right of every woman, man and child to enjoy a life of
health and
equal opportunity. UNFPA supports countries in using population data
for policies and
programmes to reduce poverty and to ensure that every pregnancy is
wanted, every

25
birth is safe, every young person is free of HIV, and every girl and
woman is treated
with dignity and respect, because everyone counts (UNFPA, 2011).
Furthermore, all professionals that have anything to do with
populations, and in fact,
every individual are involved in demography, because: it is either you
are collecting
information or you are part of the information being collected.
Poston Dudley L. and Bournier Leon F. (2010), described demography
as the study of
many of the most important events in our lives, and we are very much
involved in
these events. They stated that ‘we are all population actors’ even though
we hardly
realise it.
Some historical persons central to demography, most of whom cannot
be considered
actual demographers but they have been involved in matters that later
developed into a
field of science in its own right – demography, are: John Graunt,
William Petty,
Edmund Halley, Benjamin Gompertz, Wilhelm Lexis, and Alfred Lotka.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
List the major professional disciplines that are interested in demography
2.4 CONCLUSION
Demography is the scientific study of the characteristics of human
populations. It
relies heavily on statistical data, collecting, interpreting, and presenting
the
information to determine trends.
The study of populations is important because the size of the
combination of persons
that constitute the population, its standard of living, its social system
and culture are
v

26
all interrelated and have serious implications for the health and well-
being of
members of that population.
2.5 SUMMARY
In this unit, we learnt that: Demography is described as the (study)
identification and
understanding of both quantitative (composition, density, distribution,
growth,
movement, size, and structure of the population) and qualitative
(sociological factors
such as education quality, crime, development, diet and nutrition, race,
social class,
wealth, wellbeing) aspects of human population.
We found out that the major objectives of demography are: Finding out
the size,
composition and distribution of the population in any given area of
human habitation;
Observing, measuring and describing changes over time; Observing,
measuring and
describing the process through which such changes are being affected;
and Analysing
the underlying determinants and consequences of such changes. We
identified
Demographers as the major professionals that handle demographic
information.
Others are: Geographers, Sociologists, Planners, economists and
Statisticians. Also,
national and international government and non-governmental
organisations are
involved in demography.
vi
2.6 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT
i. List the quantitative and qualitative aspects of Demography.
ii. What characteristics of the population do Demographers study?
2.7 REFERENCES/FURTHER READING
Abanobi, O.C. (2004). Quantitative Techniques in Public Health and

27
Community Medicine. Owerri, Nigeria: Colon Concept.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography (2009).
Ogunbameru, Olakunle A. (Ed.). (2009). Sociology: A Contemporary
Science of Human Interaction in Society. Ibadan, Nigeria:
Penthouse Publications (Nig.).
Poston Dudley L. & Bournier Leon F. (2010). Population and Society:
An Introduction to demography.
UNFPA (2011). www.unfpa.org
Wikipedia entry on Demography. Retrieved from
"http://en.wikiversity.org/w/index.php?title=Demography&oldid
=603867."Accessed 12/08/2002.
www.businessdictionary.com/definition/demography.html.
Accessed 15/07/2012.
www.Amazon.comStockwell, E (1973) ―Demography as a Field of
Study.‖ In Sociology in Africa: a Book of Readings. Wilmot, P.F.
(Ed.). Department of Sociology, ABU, Zaria.
www.sociologyguide.com/...Demography/TheoriesofDemography
Accessed 20/07/2012.
vii
2.8 POSSIBLE ANSWERS TO SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
• Quantitative and qualitative demography
Quantitative aspects include composition, density, distribution, growth,
movement, size, and structure of the population.
Qualitative aspects are the sociological factors such as education
quality,
crime, development, diet and nutrition, race, social class, wealth,
wellbeing.
• Objectives of demography
Ascertaining the size, composition and distribution of the population in
any
given area of human habitation
Observe, measure and describe changes in sizes, composition and
distribution
of population over time
Observe, measure and describe the process through which population
changes

28
are affected
Analyse the underlying determinants and consequences of population
changes
• Professionals interested in demography
The major professionals interested in demography are Demographers.
Others
are Geographers, Sociologists, Planners, Economists, Statisticians,
Health and
Medical professionals
i
UNIT 3 INTRODUCTION TO PRINCIPLES OF DEMOGRAPHY
CONTENTS
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Objectives
3.3 Main Content
3.3.1 Demographic Principles
3.3.2 Uses of Demography
3.3.3 Major Components of Demography
3.3.4 Demographic Variables
3.4 Conclusion
3.5 Summary
3.6 Tutor-Marked Assignment
3.7 References/Further Reading
3.8 Possible Answers to Self-Assessment Exercises
3.1 INTRODUCTION
In unit 2, you learnt that demography is the study of populations, and
you had the
general idea of the subject. Why do we need to read this subject? Why
do we care
about demography? Here, you will learn the uses of demography, and
the major areas
in demography.
3.2 OBJECTIVES
At the end of this unit, you should be able to:
• explain the basic principles of demography
• state the uses of demography

29
• identify the major components of demography
• explain demographic variables.
3.3 INTRODUCTION TO PRINCIPLES OF DEMOGRAPHY
3.3.1 Demographic Principles
Demography is the science that studies human population from different
aspects.
Demography is very important for health planning, recruitment and
allocation of
resources. It is clear that demography performs all functions
characteristic of science
such as cause and effect relation and prediction about the future. It
employs scientific
methods of observation and analysis. It is factual as well as universal. It
is veridical. It
establishes cause and effect relationship. Its laws are verifiable
generalisations
Weeks (1998) and Ashry (2012) explained that demography may
describe population
from three main aspects, namely: size, composition and distribution.
ii
Population Size
Population size is the number of people who live in a specified
geographical area
during a defined time. The size of the population is the total number of
people in a
given geographical area such as a country, a state, a town or a
community. This
number is derived through head counts and periodic statistical
projections. To know
the number of all persons in the community, we use either census or
estimated
population.
Composition
This is the description of the quality of the population as shown by the
population

30
pyramid (graphical presentation of age and sex composition of the
community) shown
in Figure 2.
Fig. 2: Population Pyramids of Mexico, USA and the World
Source: Population Today (1998), cited in Henslin (2009)
Study the three population pyramids for: Mexico, United States and the
World in
Figure 2. The population pyramid is drawn as two histograms, one for
each sex. Then
the two histograms are rotated to settle on their side and back to back,
forming a
pyramid with the percentage on horizontal line and age on vertical one,
with males on
the left side and females on right one. Shape of the pyramid varies for
different
countries according to the age distribution of the population.
From the shape of the pyramid, conclusions are made about:
• Sex ratio: Percentage of males and percentage of females.
• Age structure: Percentage of each stratum.
• Mortality and emigration: Slope of the sides.
• Life span: Height of the pyramid and shape of the apex.
iii
• Median Age: The point in the vertical axis of age through which
passes the
horizontal line that divides the surface area of the pyramid into two
equal
parts (50% younger and 50% older) and
• Dependency Ratio.
About population composition, Ogunbameru (2009), outlined that:
―the basic
characters used to express features of population as noted above are:
number, space
and time. These characters should not be confused with the factors that
cause change
in population. The relationship between characters and the factors is that
characters

31
enable us to talk about density (how many there are in a given space),
distribution
(how they are arranged in that space), and changes in density and
distribution with
respect to time. Each of the factors can operate at high or at low rates or
of course,
they can remain stable. Four possible conditions can, theoretically,
result from their
occurrence. For instance, births can be high or low and deaths can be
high or low.
Consequently, the four expected results would be as follows:
• Births high + Deaths High = Stable population at low level.
• Births High + Deaths Low = A growing population with spreading
age base.
• Births Low + Deaths High = A declining population.
• Births Low + Deaths Low = Stable population but aging.
Any such shift in population structure is called a demographic transition
and can be of
several kinds. Briefly stated, the theory of demographic transition ―is
an
interpretation of historical changes in vital rates, from high to low rates
of mortality
and fertility and the trends in population growth in the process‖
(Notestein, 1945). The
theory postulates that economic development causes a decline in death
rate, which is
followed after a time lag by a fall in the birth rate to stabilise population
growth. This
is based on the experience of industrialised countries. If the
circumstances and the
processes of economic development repeat themselves, developing
countries, where
mortality is already falling are thus expected to go from a stage of low
mortality and
continued high fertility to a state of low mortality and low fertility as in
the developed

32
countries.
Basically there are at least three axioms of human population:
• A declining population consists predominantly of old dependents.
• A declining population takes place because of lack of births or by
emigration both of which result in a residual population of old
people.
• A balance of births and deaths maintain a stable population.
This leads to the categorisation of population based on composition of
ages. The first
person to do the categorisation was Sandburg. He observed certain
empirical
circumstances between age structure and the rate of population growth
and identified
these types:
iv
• Stationary population: Having moderate proportion of children
and old persons and slow growth or stationary number.
• Regressive population: This has a high proportion of old persons
and declining number of birth.
• Progressive population: High population of children and high
growth rate.
• Ageing population: The concept of ageing population relates to the
relative
proportion of age distribution. It is a concept that is difficult to define
because
various countries tend to have different age group and this depends
mostly on
retirement age. Once a country has decided on what to be referred to as
old age,
and then moving toward this age, one can say the population is aging.
Therefore, there cannot be a widely acceptable rule for defining aging
population. In spite of the problem of definition, it is clear from
Sandburg‘s
topology that, the oldest population in technologically advanced
countries is
high considering such factor like low mortality.

33
The process of ageing in many advanced societies is also associated
with a differential
death rate between males and females. In most populations, males die
earlier, leaving a
preponderance of old females, even though there tends to be more births
of males than
of females. Males in most primitive tribes face higher environmental
hazards from the
risk of earning a living.
Distribution
Spatial organisation and the population mechanism are inseparable.
Demography
shows how people are distributed in the world by continent, countries,
regions, urban
versus rural areas or desert, natives, foreigners and races. Population
distribution
depends on environment, and environment has a great deal to do with
population
density as well.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
Study figure 2 and make conclusion on the sex ratio of the populations
of the three
countries.
3.3.2 Uses of Demography
Weeks, (1998) observed that demography is one of the areas in
sociology that treats
things from the practical point of view. The uses of demography are
seen in our lives
every day. Russ Long (2008), highlighted that demography can be used
in politics, by
government, as well as in business.
Demography and Politics
Politics is all about democracy, which is ‗government of the people, for
the people, by
the people‘. It is demographic results that will show the number of
people to be

34
governed, the areas (location, communities) to be governed or
represented and the
v
actual people (eligible voters) who will bring them to power.
Demography is also an
essential tool used in ensuring equal representation in Congress –
National (Senate &
House of Representative) and State houses of Assembly and Local
Government
Councils. For example, the makeup of the House of Representatives is
determined by
population distribution: each Local Government Area is represented.
Demography and Government
Government uses demography to plan and allocate resources.
Demographic studies
help to identify the various groups in a community, like: children,
women, men,
physically challenged, elderly, and youths etc. It is this information that
is used in the
allocation of resource to suit the needs of each group. For example, the
recent outreach
education strategy launched in various parts of Nigeria by the Federal
Government, to ensure that every child, no matter his/her circumstances,
goes to
school.
Demography and Business
People who are doing business can use the study of population to their
advantage. The
result of population studies could be put to specific use in business. For
example, if a
business sells a product that is desired or required by age-specific
groups, that
business can use information from demographic studies to discover
communities
where members of that age-specific group live. For example, a business
of stationery

35
will work out very well in areas where there are many students. A shop
that sells
fashionable dresses and shoes for young people will do very well in a
college/University environment. Fertilizer will sell best in a farming
community.
What we are saying is that, demographic awareness could help in
finding
neighbourhoods where a business would yield the most profit and
satisfaction.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
Mention and explain three uses of demography
3.3.3 Major Components of Demography
The major components of Demography include the following:
Demographic Perspective
Demographic perspective means understanding of the relative
importance of and,
particular attitude towards population issues. Demographic perspective
is a way of
relating basic information to theories about how the world operates
demographically.
Demographic perspective influences the way people understand and
interpret
questions involving population. Some examples of demographic
perspective are: the
Malthusian theorem, and the Demographic transition model.
vi
Population Processes
There are three main factors that cause changes in population. These
three basic
population processes, otherwise known as components of population
change, include
birth, death, and migration. Gains and losses from whatever cause, the
bases of the
dynamics, sometimes are called the population mechanism. Births add
to population,

36
while deaths subtract from the population. Migration can either add or
subtract from
the population (Ogunbameru, 2009).
Population Structure
Population structure addresses the relationship between population
processes and
demographic characteristics of populations such as the age and sex of a
given
population, the race and ethnicity of a population, their socioeconomic
status, and
education.
Population and Contemporary Social Issues
Weeks (1989), cited in Russ Long (2008), explored the demographic
explanations of
major issues confronting the world and contended that population
growth often starts
other problems that people face. Hanlon and Pickett (1998), Henslin
(2009), and
Ogunbameru (2009) all agree that demographic processes and structure
interact with
social issues like: Food security, women's rights, family structure,
unemployment,
aging, housing and urbanisation, economic development, inflation,
energy, pollution
and the ecosystem, literacy and education, and finally issues about
individual freedom.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
Outline the major components of demography
3.3.4 Demographic Variables
How does population change?
The population changes in accordance with three demographic
variables:
fertility/births, mortality/deaths and migration. This is otherwise known
as
components of population change. Population growth or decline in a
society is

37
influenced by the birth rate, the death rate, and the migration rate. Gains
and losses
from whatever cause, are the bases of the dynamics sometimes called
the population
mechanism.
Births add to population, while deaths subtract from population.
Migration can either
add or subtract from the population. Therefore, the growth of a nation‘s
population is
determined by the number of births minus the number of deaths plus the
net migration
rate. Thus, we have what is called balancing equation which is given as:
P t = Po + B – D _+M.
Where:
vii
Pt = population at the time in the future
Po = the base population
B = births between time o and t
D = deaths between time o and t
M = net migration.
It will be clear from balancing the equation what the various sources of
demographic
data should be and they include P t and P o, which can be obtained
through census, as
well as D and B, which we can get through vital registration.
Fertility
Fertility explores the level of reproduction in a society. It refers to the
number of
children born to a woman. Fecundity refers to the physical ability to
reproduce.
Demographers distinguish between population increases that happen
because of
fertility (or natural increase) and increases that happen because of
migration. Keep in
mind that population growth will be negative if more people are dying
than they are

38
being born.
Birth Rate
The birth rate is the number of babies born every year for every
thousand of a given
population. The birth rate is called crude birth rate, which indicates that
it is not a
refined measure of fertility. One major purpose of this measure is that it
described the
impact of fertility on population growth.
Mortality
The second demographic variable, mortality, refers to dying.
Historically, disease
determined mortality levels. Today, because of better health conditions
and better
medical care, disease has ceased to be an important issue (except in the
realm of
HIV/AIDS).The major causes of death are now degenerative problems
like heart
disease.
Age impacts mortality levels early and late in life. Congenital health
problems
influence morality rates early in life. Death rates for infants are higher
than death rates
for older children. One explanation is that infants are less resistant to
disease. When
life expectancy increases, it does so because death is controlled at the
beginning of
life. Babies will live longer, but all those babies will bring down the
average age of the
population. Teens tend to die from accidents. The elderly suffer from
degenerative
problems.
Death Rates
The death rate is the number of deaths in a year for every 1000 members
of a

39
population. It is the simplest and commonest measure of mortality. Like
birth rate,
death rates are affected by many population characteristics, particularly
age and age
viii
structure. Death rate has specific and general meaning. In specific terms,
it could refer
to the general death rate from the total population of an area. More
generally, it may be
used to refer to the general death rate for any population (the male
population, female
population).
Migration
The third way populations change is by migration. Migration could be
immigration or
emigration. Immigration refers to people moving in and emigration
refers to people
moving out. People move for jobs more than for any other reason.
Young people
between the ages of 20 and 30 are the most mobile. Compared to the
people in a
population who do not migrate, migrants have higher levels of
education. Obviously,
people who move are more motivated than those who do not. The donor
area is
adversely affected. They lose young, motivated, and educated people.
The donor area
loses the investment in those individuals. It costs the community
resources to raise a
young, motivated, educated worker. The community loses that
investment. The
recipient area gets a young, motivated, and educated citizen and has to
pay nothing for
that person's development.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
List and explain any five demographic variables

40
3.4 CONCLUSION
Demography is one of the areas in sociology that treats things from the
practical point
of view and is therefore very important for health planning, recruitment
and allocation
of resources. Demography shows how people are distributed in the
world by
continent, countries, regions, urban versus rural areas or desert, natives,
foreigners and
races.
3.5 SUMMARY
In this unit, we looked more closely at demography and learnt that:
Demography can
be used in every aspect of our lives like politics, by government and in
business; and
it describes population from three main aspects of size, composition and
distribution.
The major components of demography were identified as: demographic
perspective
which influences the way people understand and interpret questions
involving
population; population processes, otherwise known as components of
population
change which include birth, death, and migration; population structure;
that is,
characteristics of populations such as the age and sex of a given
population, the race
and ethnicity of a population, their socioeconomic status, and education;
and that
demographic processes and structure interact with other social issues.
The population changes in accordance with three demographic
variables:
fertility/births, mortality/deaths and migration. This is otherwise known
as
components of population change.
ix

41
3.6 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT
i. What are the factors of population change?
ii. State three (3) uses of demography.
iii. Briefly explain the terms: population size, population composition
and
population distribution.
3.7 REFERENCES/FURTHER READING
Henslin, J. M. (2009). Essentials of Sociology: A Down-to- Earth
Approach. (8th ed.).U.S.A.: Allyn and Bacon.
__________ ___ _____ ____________ ___ ____ ____
!_ ____ "#____$
(Ed.).Food for the World, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Ogunbameru, O. A. (2009). (Ed.). Sociology: A Contemporary Science
of
Human Interaction in Society. Ibadan, Nigeria: Penthouse
Publications (Nig.)
Russ, L.(2008).Introduction to Demography. Lecture Notes.
Weeks, J. R. (1998).Population: An Introduction to Concepts and
Issues. (6th ed.). Belmont: Wadsworth Publishing Company.
3.8 POSSIBLE ANSWERS TO SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
• Sex ratio of Mexico, USA and World population from Fig.2
The ratio of males : females in Figure 2 is approximately equal
• Uses of demography in:
Politics
Government
Business
Public health
• Major components of demography
Population processes
Population structure
Social issues in populations
• Demographic variables
Fertility
Birth rate
Mortality
Death rate

42
Migration
i
MODULE 2 METHODS IN DEMOGRAPHY
Unit 1 Overview of Methods in Demography
Unit 2 Concept of Population and Sources of Population Data
Unit 3 Population Dynamics and Health Implications
Unit 4 Population Structure and Population Movement
UNIT 1 OVERVIEW OF METHODS IN DEMOGRAPHY
CONTENTS
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Objectives
1.3 Main Content
1.3.1 Theories of Demography
1.3.2 Data Collection Methods
1.3.3 Demographic Methodology
1.4 Conclusion
1.5 Summary
1.6 Tutor-Marked Assignment
1.7 References/Further Reading
1.8 Possible Answers to Self-Assessment Exercise
1.1 INTRODUCTION
The analysis of demographic changes relies on the availability of
accurate data about
the relevant population characteristics and processes. The main features
of formal
demography, which we are studying, are that it is fundamentally
descriptive or analytic
rather than explanatory in nature, and that is concerned with
demographic phenomena
in isolation. It tries to answer questions which begin with what is ----?
Recall that in units 1 and 3, we defined demography as statistical study
of populations
and saw the components of demography, one of which is
demographic perspective. In this unit, you will see theories of
demography, which

43
form the demographic perspective; and you will start learning how data
is collected
and used to measure the demographic variables: Fertility, Mortality and
Migration.
1.2 OBJECTIVES
At the end of this unit, you should be able to:
• explain some theories of demography
• describe the methods of data collection
• identify the various methods of analysing demographic data
ii
• utilise the knowledge of demographic methodology in
appreciating reports.
1.3 METHODS IN DEMOGRAPHY
1.3.1 Theories of Demography
Malthus Theory
The essay on ‘the principle of population’, an important work of
Malthus is a
landmark in the history of population studies. The theme of the essay
was mainly to
argue that the tendency of the population to grow faster in relation to its
means of
subsistence has led to human misery and placed several obstacles in the
path of human
progress. In 1803, Malthus published the second edition of his essay, a
much expanded
and changed edition which can't really be called a re print of the 1797
essay, for in the
new edition, the emphasis was more on arguments against the poor laws
than on
country arguments against the opinions of Condorcet and Godwin.
Economic Theories of Population
Many Economists and Demographers argue that: with more income,
people want more
economic goods. Other things being equal, they would want more
children. But other

44
things are not equal. With incomes high, mother and father would lose
much if they
interrupt their careers. If parents are affluent, they wish to give greater
quality to the
upbringing of their children. The parents do not have much time so;
only one, two or
three children can be given intensive parental care which a larger family
could not
receive. Moreover, the city children are no longer the economic asset
they used to be
on the farm. With improved modern health care, child survival is high
and the elderly
are also somewhat cared for. All these shift the decision against the
larger family.
The Malthusian Theory of Population
The law of diminishing returns has an important and interesting
application in the field
of population. Around 1800, Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834), a
young English
Clergyman, and Economist used to argue at breakfast against his
father‘s perfectionist
view that the human race was getting ever better. Finally, the son
became so agitated
that he wrote a book that became world‘s famous: An essay on the
principle of
population (1798). In it, Malthus proposed what became known as the
Malthus
theorem. He argued that although population grows geometrically, the
food supply
increases only arithmetically. This meant, he claimed, that if births go
unchecked, the
population of a country or even of the world will out strip its food
supply.
The book influenced the thinking of people all over the world (including
Charles

45
Darion, the expositor of the doctrine of biological evolution). Malthus‘
views depend
directly on the law of diminishing returns and continue to have
relevance.
iii
Malthus postulated, therefore, a universal tendency for population,
unless checked by
food supply, to grow at a geometric progression. Geometric progression
grows fast and
soon 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1,024…. becomes so large that
there will be
no space in the world.
Neo-Malthusian Theory
Neo-Malthusians maintain that although the gloomy predictions of
Malthus may have
been pre-mature. They are basically correct. According to Anti
Malthusians' world's
resources are adequate for a much larger population. Exploitation not
over population
is the basic cause of world hunger.
Demographic Transition Theory
Two different interpretations have been given for this theory.
1) Frank Notestein says that every country passes through three stages
of
population growth:
i. High birth rate and high death rate
ii. High birth rate and low death rate (population explosion)
iii. Low birth rate and low death rate. In western nations, the desire for
high standard
of living led to the reductions in the birth rate .These nations are
approaching a
new equilibrium with both birth rates and death rates quite low and little
population growth. This is explained by the theory of demographic
transition -
the theory that industrial and commercial development first cuts the
death rate

46
but creates a desire for smaller families and eventually cuts the birth
rate.
2) The other theory is given by C.P Blacker. There are five phrases in
this theory:
i. High stationary phase marked by high fertility and mortality rates
ii. Early expanding phase marked by high fertility and high but
declining
mortality
iii. Late expanding phase with declining fertility but mortality declining
more rapidly
iv.Low stationary phase with low fertility and equally low mortality
v. Declining phase with low mortality, low fertility and an excess of
deaths
over births.
Optimum Population Theory
According to Canan, the profounder of this theory, population must
grow up to certain
desired level after which further growth is harmful. The two important
principles of
this theory are:
iv
1. When there is an increase in population then the ratio between the
total
population and the working population remains almost constant
2. When at a point of time the population of a country increases, the
natural
resources capital and technical knowhow do not change with the result
that
after sometime the law of diminishing returns begins to operate. This
law
provides that for maximum production all the sources of production
should be
combined in that proper ratio than it shall not be possible to have
maximum
production.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

47
List the major population theories?
1.3.2 Data Collection Methods
There are two types of data collection: direct and indirect — with
several different
methods of each type.
Direct Methods
Direct data come from vital statistics registries that track all births and
deaths as well
as certain changes in legal status such as marriage, divorce, and
migration (registration
of place of residence). In developed countries with good registration
systems (such as
the United States and much of Europe), registry statistics are the best
method for
estimating the number of births and deaths.
Census is the other common direct method of collecting demographic
data. A census is
usually conducted by a national government and attempts to enumerate
every person in
a country. However, in contrast to vital statistics data, which are
typically collected
continuously and summarised on an annual basis, censuses typically,
occur only every
10 years or so and thus are not usually the best source of data on births
and deaths.
Analyses are conducted after a census to estimate how much over or
undercounting
took place. These compare the sex ratios from the census data to those
estimated from
natural values and mortality data.
Censuses do more than just count people. They typically collect
information about
families or households in addition to individual characteristics such as
age, sex, marital
status, literacy/education, employment status, and occupation, and
geographical

48
location. They may also collect data on migration (or place of birth or of
previous
residence), language, religion, nationality (or ethnicity or race), and
citizenship. In
countries in which the vital registration system may be incomplete, the
censuses are
also used as a direct source of information about fertility and mortality;
for example
the censuses of the People's Republic of China gather information on
births and deaths
that occurred in the 18 months immediately preceding the census.
v
Census Data Collection
Accurate population data is a vital ingredient of social and economic
policy.
Governments cannot deliver efficient services and infrastructure without
knowledge of
the national demographic profile – the size of the population, where
people live, how
old they are, and the net effect of births, deaths and migration.
Compiling this essential information is far from straightforward. The
conduct of a
census requires professional management, a very large number of
enumerators, and the
application of new technologies and skilled interpretation of the results.
Nigeria is one example of a country which has had consistent difficulty
in delivering
reliable census results, doubly unfortunate in that it is Africa‘s most
populous nation.
Led by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA), international agencies often
provide
generous financial and logistical support for census production in
developing
countries.
The UN strives to ensure that data has value in the global as well as
national domain.

49
Its 2010 World Population and Housing Census Programme have
sought out the
cooperation of every country to complete at least one census between
2005 and 2014.
This agenda peaked in 2011 with censuses conducted in 70 countries
(UNFPA, 2011).
Indirect Methods
Indirect methods of collecting data are required in countries where full
data are not
available, such as is the case in much of the developing world. One of
these techniques
is the sister method, where survey researchers ask women how many of
their sisters
have died or had children and at what age. With these surveys,
researchers can then
indirectly estimate birth or death rates for the entire population. Other
indirect methods
include asking people about siblings, parents, and children.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
List the methods of data collection in demography
1.3.3 Demographic Methodology
Definitions
John Hopkins University (2008) defined some terms which may be met
in this
introduction to demographic methods as:
Demographic analysis: study of components of variation and change in
demographic
variables and the relationships between them. This is also called formal
demography.
Demographic and health surveys: nationally representative household
surveys
carried out in about 50 developing nations by Macro International Inc.
The objective of
vi
the surveys is to provide data concerning fertility, family planning and
maternal and

50
child health that can be used by program managers, policymakers and
researchers. In
the household questionnaire, there are questions on household
composition, education
and occupation of the wife and husband, household facilities, and
household
possessions, etc. Women of reproductive age in the households are
identified and
interviewed. The woman‘s questionnaire includes sections on
background
characteristics, a birth history, knowledge and use of family planning,
breastfeeding,
immunisation and health of children under age five, marriage, and
fertility preferences,
etc. Net nuptiality tables: takes into account mortality as well as
marriage. Indicates
the pace at which a group of single persons is decreased annually by
marriage and
death. Also gives the probability of a single person marrying at each
year of age
according to the current nuptiality and mortality rates. This also
provides information
on the average age at marriage. Multiple decrement life table techniques
are needed.
Rate: Measure of the frequency with which an event occurs in a defined
population
during a given length of time. Consider the average number of people
exposed i.e.
midpoint population. Rates are special cases of a ratio and tend to be
associated with
population change.
Rate of natural increase: crude birth rate–crude death rate.
Ratio: value obtained by dividing one quantity by another. Ratio
indicates the relative
magnitude of a numerator and a denominator.

51
Standardisation: procedure of adjustment of crude rates to eliminate
from them the
effect of differences in population composition with respect to age
and/or other
variables. Note: adjusted rates have no direct meaning in themselves.
They must be
compared with the original crude rates or with other adjusted rates using
the same
standard
Analysis of Demographic Data
A standard array of techniques and measures forms the basis of much
demographic
analysis, the most common of which are described briefly below.
Further detail is
supplied in a number of textbooks (Shryock et al. 1976; Newell 1988;
Pollard et al.
1990; Hinde 1998). Analysis involves not just the application of a
particular technique,
but decisions about what units of analysis to use and how to group them.
Rowland (2003) stressed that demographic methods assist in exploring
and explaining
some of our richest and most reliable sources of information about
changes in
societies. Also, there are many applied and practical subject areas
requiring expertise
in using demographic information. These include: planning for housing,
schools, and
urban services; public policy formulation in education, employment and
health; and
decision- making for business and private organisations.
Let us look at methods most commonly needed to analyse demographic
information at
national, regional and local levels.
vii
There are a variety of demographic methods for modelling population
processes. They

52
include models of:
• Mortality- (including the life table, Gompertz models, hazards
models, Cox
proportional hazard models, multiple decrement life tables, Brass
relational
logits);
• Fertility – (Hermes model, Coale-Trussell models, parity progression
ratios);
• Marriage – (Singulate Mean at Marriage, Page model);
• Disability – (Sullivan‘s method, multistate life tables);
• Population projections – (Lee Carter, the Leslie Matrix); and
• Population momentum – (Keyfitz).
Measurement of Fertility
Fertility means the child-bearing performance of a woman, couple, or
population.
Generally only live births are included. The simplest measure of fertility
commonly
used is the crude birth rate—the number of births in a particular year per
1000
population. As the denominator of this includes those not at risk of
giving birth (men
and women outside the reproductive age groups), it is really a ratio
rather than a rate.
Crude birth rates are influenced by the age structure of the population,
but less
seriously than crude death rates.
Fertility is a more refined measure of ___ _%__& _' (_
%__ __ _ ___________ ___
denominator is specific to persons in the population who are susceptible
to pregnancy
and childbirth, namely women of childbearing age, and not the total
population.
Number of live births in x X 1000
Crude Birth Rate = Mid-year Population in time x
The Mid-year population is the population of an area as at 1st July of
the year being

53
considered. We can also refer to mean population as being equivalent to
midyear
population.
Mid-year/mean population, P = ½ (Pt + Pt + n).
Where, Pt = Initial population; Pt+ n = population at a new date; and n =
Time interval
_%_____) __ _ *_%_ %_'___+ *____%_ _'
___ _%__& _' (_%__ __ _
___________ ___
denominator is specific to persons in the population who are susceptible
to pregnancy
and childbirth, namely women of childbearing age, and not the total
population.
Total number of births in year t X 1000
General Fertility Rate = Total population of women aged 15-49years
viii
Number of births to women aged x to x+ n years
Age-Specific Fertility = X 1,000
Rate (ASFR) Number of women aged x to x+ n years
ASFRs are frequently calculated for 5-year age groups from 15–19 to
40–44 or 45–49.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) = Σ (ASFR x 5)
Gross Reproduction Female births
Rate (GRR) = TFR X All births
Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) = The NRR represents the number of
female children that a female child just born can expect to bear, taking
into account her risk of dying before the end of her reproductive years.
Thus, the NRR is always less than the GRR, since some people always
die before the end of their reproduction.
Total number of births by all married women Completed
Fertility Rate at the end of their reproductivity X 1000
or Final Birth Rate =
Total number of married women at the
end of their child-bearing period
= number of children ever born per 1,000 women at the end of their
reproductive years (49years old)

54
Number of males in population
Sex Ratio = X 100
Number of females in population
Total number of children aged 0-4 years
Child-Woman X 1,000
Ratio (CWR) Women aged 15 - 49 years
Reproduction rates
In the long term, populations will grow if mothers replace themselves
with one or
more (surviving) daughters and decline if they fail to achieve this.
Theoretically, it
would also be possible to measure the replacement of fathers by sons,
but in practice,
the difficulties involved in obtaining paternity data make this unfeasible.
Reproduction
rates thus relate only to female fertility—that is, births of daughters. The
gross
reproduction rate is derived in exactly the same way as the total fertility
rate except
that age-specific birth rates based only on births of daughters are used in
the
calculation.
Measurement of Mortality
As for fertility, the simplest measure of mortality is the crude mortality
rate, deaths per
1000 population. However, as noted above, this is strongly influenced
by age structure,
and age- and sex-specific rates, or measures based on them, which are
much preferred
if data are available to calculate them. As in epidemiology, both direct
and indirect
ix
standardisations are sometimes used to make comparisons between
populations with
different age and sex structures.

55
The CDR of a given population is defined as the number of deaths per
1000 persons
in that population in a calendar year.
Number of deaths reported in t
Crude Death rate = X 1000
in time, x Mid-year population in time, t
Example: For a given community in 2002, there were 2,000,000
thousand persons estimated to reside in the area in that year. A total of
30,000 deaths were recorded in that year. The annual crude death rate
for
2002 for the community is:
30,000 X 1000
2,000,000
= 15 deaths per 1000 population of the given population in 2002.
The annual death rate is a generalised indicator of the health status of a
population, but because it is based on the total population, it is a crude
rate.
Cause –Specific = Number of deaths due to a specified cause
Death Rate _ X 100,000
Estimated population at mid-year
Age- Specific Death
Rate for persons in
Defined agebracket
Number of deaths occurring among
persons in specified age interval during t
= X 1000
Total number of persons in
Age-bracket (interval) in time, t
Under-five Total number of deaths in children
0-4 years old in the year
Mortality Rate = _ X 100,000
Estimated total population of children
0-4years in that year
Number of deaths among males
aged 30-40 years in year t
=_ X1000 Total number of males aged

56
30-40 years in year t
i
For Age-sex-specific death rate, the age and sex should be substituted to
achieve desired results.
Infant Mortality Number of deaths of children
Rate in year t = 0-1 year in t
_ X 1000
Total number of live births in t
Number of Maternal deaths
Maternal Mortality due to puerperal causes in t
Rate in period t = X 1000
Number of live births in t
= Number of maternal deaths per 1000
Live births in the period t
A given cause (x) in a specified
Proportional time period
Mortality = X 100
Ratio of x Total number of deaths due to
all causes in the same period
Number of deaths due to y
Case Fatality Rate occurring during time t
For Disease/Health = X 100
Problem y in t Total number of cases of
y occurring during time
t in the given population
In addition to empirical analyses, demographers have led
methodological developments
in the analysis of mortality with frailty models, given that medical
models cannot fully
explain changes in mortality over time. Finally, an important
demographic contribution
has been the application and continuing development of life tables
methods used in
epidemiological and sociological analyses.
The Life Table

57
The life table is a statistical device for summarising the mortality
experience of a
population. It is a basic demographic tool and has a wide range of
applications beyond
the study of mortality. Life-table analysis is a core demographic
technique and life
tables provide one of the most powerful tools for analysing mortality
and other nonrenewable
processes. Chiang (1984) in Weeks (1998) stated that life-table
techniques
have been used to study divorce, labour force participation, fertility,
family planning
and other problems. It is the backbone of the insurance industry.
ii
The life table has been around since the middle of 17th century, when
an Englishman,
John Graunt, developed it as a means to show the different patterns of
mortality in
London. He found, for example, that some parts of London had
consistently higher
levels of mortality than other areas.
The major goal of the life table, as it is applied to mortality trends and
levels, is to
calculate the average remaining lifetime, or expectation of life as it is
usually called. It
is an index of the number of additional years beyond the current age that
a typical
individual can expect to live if mortality levels remain unchanged. It is
an average,
representing the potential experience of a hypothetical group of people.
Table 3: Life Table for U.S. Females (1989)
Of 100,000 Number of (8)
Hypothetical Years Lived Expectation
people Born of Live
Alive
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) Average

58
Age Age- Probability Number Number In the Age In this and All
Number of
Interval Specific of Alive at Dying Interval Subsequent Years of Life
Death Death (prop Beginning during Age Intervals Remaining at
Rates in ortions of of Interval Age Beginning of
Age persons Interval Age Interval
Interval alive at
beginning
who die
during
interval)
x to x+n nMx nqx lx ndx nLx Tx e0
x
0-1 0.0090 0.0088 100,000 882 99,247 7,860,815 78.6
1-5 0.0004 0.0017 99,118 171 396,063 7,761,568 78.3
5-10 0.0002 0.0010 98,947 101 494,460 7,365,505 74.4
10-15 0.0002 0.0010 98,846 100 494,014 6,871,045 69.5
15-20 0.0005 0.0025 98,746 243 493,161 6,377,031 64.6
20-25 0.0005 0.0027 98,503 264 491,867 5,883,870 59.7
25-30 0.0006 0.0032 98,239 317 490,419 5,392,003 54.9
30-35 0.0009 0.0043 97,922 416 488,618 4,901,584 50.1
35-40 0.0011 0.0056 97,506 551 486,250 4,412,966 45.3
40-45 0.0017 0.0084 96,955 817 482,884 3,926,716 40.5
45-50 0.0026 0.0130 96,138 1,251 477,790 3,443,832 35.8
50-55 0.0043 0.0213 94,887 2,022 469,494 2,966,042 31.3
55-60 0.0069 0.0338 92,865 3,141 456,935 2,496,348 26.9
60-65 0.0107 0.0523 89,724 4,694 437,568 2,039,413 22.7
65-70 0.0162 0.0778 85,030 6,613 409,483 1,601,845 18.8
70-75 0.0251 0.1183 78,417 9,280 370,076 1,192,362 15.2
75-80 0.0399 0.1815 69,137 12,547 315,798 822,286 11.9
80-85 0.0624 0.2698 56,590 16,402 243,090 506,488 9.0
85 and 0.1403 1.0000 40,188 40,188 263,398 263,398 6.6
over
Source: Weeks (1998) – Appendix: Life Tables, Net Reproductive
Rates and Standardisation. Table A-1
i

59
Table 4: Life Table for U.S. Males (1989)
Of 100,000
Hypothetical
People Born
Alive
Number
of
Years
Lived
(8)
Expectation
of Live
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) Average
Age Age- Probability Number Number In the Age In this and Number
of
Interval Specific of Death Alive at Dying interval All Years of
Death (proportions Beginning during
Subsequen
t Life
Rates in of
perso
ns of Interval Age Age Remaining
Age alive at Interval Intervals at
Interval Beginning Beginning
who die of Age
During
Interv
al
interval)
x to x+n nMx nqx lx ndx nLx Tx e0
x
0-1 0.0111 0.0109 100,000 1,086 99,065 7,182,240 71.8
1-5 0.0005 0.0021 99,914 211 395,167 7,083,175 71.6
5-10 0.0003 0.0014 98,703 134 493,149 5,688,008 67.8
10-15 0.0003 0.0016 98,569 163 492,548 6,194,859 62.8
15-20 0.0012 0.0062 98,406 606 490,674 5,702,311 57.9

60
20-25 0.0017 0.0085 97,800 827 486,977 5,211,637 53.3
25-30 0.0018 0.0091 96,973 885 482,628 4,724,660 48.7
30-35 0.0022 0.0109 96,088 1,047 477,853 4,242,032 44.1
35-40 0.0028 0.0138 95,041 1,308 472,100 3,764,179 39.6
40-45 0.0035 0.0172 93,733 1,608 464,923 3,292,079 35.1
45-50 0.0050 0.0245 92,125 2,255 455,407 2,827,156 30.7
50-55 0.0076 0.0375 89,870 3,368 441,466 2,371,749 26.4
55-60 0.0123 0.0598 86,502 5,174 420,303 1,930,283 22.3
60-65 0.0191 0.0912 81,328 7,419 389,030 1,509,980 18.6
65-70 0.0282 0.1316 73,909 9,726 346,142 1,120,930 15.2
70-75 0.0431 0.1947 64,183 12,499 290,381 774,788 12.1
75-80 0.0662 0.2839 51,684 14,675 221,862 484,407 9.4
80-85 0.1036 0.4115 37,009 15,229 146,096 262,545 7.1
85 and 0.1762 1.0000 21,780 21,780 116,449 116,449 5.3
over
Source: Weeks (1998) – Appendix: Life Tables, Net Reproductive
Rates and Standardisation. Table A-2
The life tables represented in tables above are abridged and not
complete life tables.
The former groups ages into five-year categories, while the latter uses
single years of
age. The calculations are slightly different for the two different kinds of
life table, but
the interpretation of the results is identical.
For example, the probability of dying (nqx) between ages x and x+n is
obtained by
converting age/sex-specific death rates to probabilities according to the
following
formula:
nqx = (n)(nMx)
1 + (1 – a) (n) (nMx)
ii
Which is only an estimate of the actual probability of death (Weeks,
1998).
Measurement of Migration

61
There are no universally agreed upon measures of migration that
summarises the
overall levels in the same way that total fertility rate summarises
fertility and life
expectancy captures a population experience with mortality. However,
one way of
measuring the contribution that migration makes to population growth is
to calculate
the ratio of migration to natural increase. Thus, the migration ratio is:
Net migration
X 1,000
Births-Deaths
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
Visit a primary school in your area: obtain the population of the pupils,
and calculate
the ration of male pupil to female pupils.
1.4 CONCLUSION
Accurate population data is a vital ingredient of social and economic
policy. For the
population to be adequately monitored, there should be appropriate
collection,
compilation, and skilled interpretation of results.
1.5 SUMMARY
We have looked at some demographic theories, and explained methods
of direct and
indirect data collection. We identified the various methods, created by
great
demographers, of analysing demographic data, which the life table
illustrated. Finally,
you learnt the simple formulae used in measuring: Fertility, Mortality
and Migration
rates or ratios. In the next unit, we shall look more closely at sources of
population
data.
1.6 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT
i. The Malthus theory is very popular. Explain this theory.

62
ii. State three (3) methods each for measuring Fertility and Mortality.
iv. Briefly explain the methods stated in 2 above.
iii
1.7 REFERENCES/FURTHER READING
Colin, N. (1988). Methods and Models in Demography. New York:
Guilford Publications, Inc.
Donald, T. R. (2003). Demographic Methods and Concepts. New York.
Oxford
University Press Inc.
Hinde, A. (1998). Demographic Methods. London: Hodder Arnold
Publications.
John Hopkins University and San Beck (2008).
Newell, C. (1988). Methods and Models in Demography. London:
Belhaven Press.
Pollard, A.H., Yusuf, F. & Pollard, G.N. (1990). Demographic
Techniques. (3rd ed.).
Sydney: Pergamon Press.
Samuelson, P. A. (1980). Economics. (11th ed.). Tokyo: McGraw-Hill
Kogakusha
Ltd.
Shryock, H.S., Siegel, J.S., & Stockwell, E.G. (1976). The Methods and
Materials of
Memography (abridged edition). New York: Academic Press.
,__- ./____ _"_____' __%_+ ___________
Weeks, J. R. (1998). Population: An Introduction to Concepts and
Issues. (6th ed.).
Belmont: Wadsworth Publishing Company.
Wikipedia entry on Demography Retrieved from
"http://en.wikiversity.org/w/index.php?title=Demography&o
ldid=603867"
iv
1.8 POSSIBLE ANSWERS TO SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
• Some population theories
Economic theory
Malthusian theory
Neo-Malthusian theory

63
Transition theory
Optimum theory
• Methods of data collection in demography
Direct and
Indirect
• Calculation of sex ratio in population
Male = Number of males X 100
Number of females
Female = Number of females X 100
Number of males
v
UNIT 2 CONCEPT OF POPULATION AND SOURCES OF
POPULATION DATA
CONTENTS
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Objectives
2.3 Main Content
2.3.1 Concept of Population
2.3.2 The World Population
2.3.3 The Nigerian Population
2.3.4 Sources of Population Data
2.4 Conclusion
2.5 Summary
2.6 Tutor-Marked Assignment
2.7 References/Further Reading
2.8 Possible Answers to Self-Assessment Exercise
2.1 INTRODUCTION
Population constitutes a major factor in the development process of any
country. In
this unit, we shall discuss: the world population and projections; and the
Nigerian
population. You will learn to use tables and figures to study
populations; and identify
sources of population data.
2.2 OBJECTIVES
At the end of this unit, you should be able to:

64
• explain various terms used, frequently, in discussions of issues
relating to population.
• appreciate reports and discussions on the world population.
• state the purpose of the World Population Day.
• describe the Nigerian population.
• identify the sources of population data.
2.3 CONCEPT AND SOURCES OF POPULATION DATA
2.3.1 Concept of Population
Procter, (1978) defined Population as ‘the number of people (or
animals) living in a
particular area, country, etc.; the people living in an area; a particular
described group
or kind of people living in a particular place’.
vi
A population is a group of organisms of one species that interbreed and
live in the
same place at the same time. No population of organisms of one species
lives
independently of other species, and just as a population is made up of
individuals, a
community is made up of several populations. A community is a
collection of
interacting populations, and a change in one population in a community
will cause
changes in the other populations.
Definitions of Population
The following terms occur frequently in discussions of issues relating to
population:
Population Explosion
If there is a sudden decrease in the death rate which is accompanied by
an increase in
the birth rate, overall growth may be very rapid. This is called
population explosion.
Population explosion is a population problem. Mere growth in number
does not

65
necessarily mean development. Indeed as Malthus warned, unchecked
increase in
numbers is likely to invoke the law of diminishing returns and to work
increases in per
capital living standards. Thus, we find many developing countries
repeating the
pattern of the 18th and 19th century economics: improved medical
technology (e.g.
sanitation and, in our day, cheap insecticides) first reduces the death
rate; and then,
with the birth rate remaining high, the population explodes.
Natural Increase
Natural increase is the difference between the birth and death rates. This
may be
positive or negative. For example, if the death rate exceeds the birth
rate, the total
population (ignoring the effects of migration) will fall so that the natural
increase has a
negative value.
Population Density
Another measure of population is population density, the average
number of people
living in each unit area. Population density is the average number of
people living in a
particular area. It is a concept that refers to the number of persons per
square kilometre
or other unit of area, e.g. 500 per square Kilometre. Densities may vary
from country
to country, or even within countries.. It is a useful proxy measure of
degree of
crowding in population. The usual formula for calculating population
density or the
phenomenon of crowding (measure of intensity of aggregation of
population units) is:
Population Density =Number of persons inhabiting a defined
place in time t Area of the place in

66
square kilometers
= Number of persons per square kilometer of the place in time t
vii
It increases with high immigration and high fertility rates, especially
where infra structural development is stagnant.
According to Bunnett (1973), the land surface of the earth occupies only
about 30 per
cent of the total surface, and of this, about 10 per cent contains very few
people either
because it is too cold or too dry or too hot and wet or too mountainous.
The remaining
70 per cent of the surface is occupied by water. This means that a lot of
the population
lives on 20 per cent of the total earth‘s surface. This gives an average of
just over 50
people per 2.5 square kilometres (1 square mile). Most of the people
live where they
do because of suitable climates, fertile soils, mineral deposits and other
natural
resources.
The density of population, which is the number of people per unit area,
varies
considerably from region to region. This is because the degree of
suitability for human
settlement varies from one region to the other. The natural environment
of most
regions usually enables the inhabitants to carry out several types of
work. If a region
contains forests, good soils and valuable mineral deposits, it is possible
that lumbering,
agriculture and mining may all take place. But whether they take place
depends on the
suitability of the climate [for agriculture] and the accessibility of, and
demand for,
minerals [for mining]. Some regions can be more easily utilised than
others.

67
Over the centuries, man has picked out the fertile regions and has
cultivated them
intensively, and these regions, because of abundant harvests, have
become densely
populated.
The reasons for the rapid increase in population in modern times
include:
• Agricultural and industrial revolutions, which resulted in this
region
becoming densely populated in the 19th century.
• New forms of transport, which made it possible to collect food
supply and raw
materials from any part of the world.
• Modern development including a vast increase in medical
knowledge, which
has reduced mortality and improved natural increase.
• Modern technology and communications also enable us to offset
the worst
effects of famine, flood and pestilence, so that fewer people now die
from
natural hazards.
• Many societies do not believe in birth control, so the population
grows rapidly.
We have already seen that there are several factors which affect this, but
for most
countries the main factors responsible for population density are:
• Agriculture. Extensive agriculture which gives low crop yield per
hectare will
support a smaller population than intensive agriculture which has high
crop
yields per hectare.
• Industry. Industrial activities are much more productive than
agricultural
activities and the population density of an industrial region is nearly
always
higher than that of an agricultural region.

68
viii
• Commerce. Centers of trade are usually centers of high population
density. This
is especially true of ports and markets, for example, New York, London,
Singapore, Lagos, Onitsha, Kano.
Over-Population
A country is said to be over-populated when it has more people than its
resources can
support. We have seen that the world‘s population is increasing at an
alarming rate,
practically all countries are faced with major problems arising out of the
rapid
increase in their populations over the past 50 years, and those that do
not yet have
these problems will probably have them within the next 20 years.
Several countries
are already over-populated, but their populations are still increasing.
Possible Solutions for Over-Population
In the first place, dense population can be of two kinds, which are
commonly- though
not always- distinct from one another. They are: rural and highly
urbanised and
industrialised countries and regions.
A. Rural over-population: If the rural population of a country is
greater than its
agricultural resources can support, then it will have to introduce
measures to
balance its population to its resources. One of the most important
actions is to
increase agricultural productivity. This can be done by: introducing new
farming techniques (these are intended to increase crop yield), and land
reform.
B. Urban over –population: Some of the measures which can be taken
to
increase job opportunities, and expand housing, education, and transport
facilities thereby reducing the problem are:

69
• The building of satellite or new towns
• The building of high-rise blocks of flats
• The expansion of existing commercial and industrial activities and the
creation of new ones.
Nevertheless, industrialisation is a palliative rather than a cure for the
problem of overpopulation.
It has enabled certain countries – those first in the field – to achieve a
high
standard of living; it is not a magic process which will bring security
and prosperity to
all the poor, ignorant and crowded masses of the world. At best it may
postpone for a
while the days of Malthusian doom.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
Explain: (a) population explosion and (b) over-population
2.3.2 The World Population
The world population is the sum total of all living humans on earth. As
of March,
2012, it is estimated to number 7.026 billion by the United States
Census Bureau
(USCB).
ix
Table 4: World Population Milestones (USCB Estimates)
Population
(in billions) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Year 1804 1927 1960 1974 1987 1999 2012 2027 2046
Years
–– 123 33 14 13 12 13 15 19
Elapsed
Source: United States Census Bureau (USCB) Estimates.
It is estimated that the world population reached one billion for the first
time in 1804.
It was another 123 years before it reached two billion in 1927, but it
took only 33
years to reach three billion in 1960. Thereafter, the global population
reached four

70
billion in 1974, five billion in 1987, six billion in 1999 and, according to
the United
States Census Bureau, seven billion in March 2012. The United
Nations, however,
estimated that the world population reached seven billion in October
2011
Table 6: World Population by Continent (Source: United Nations
(2012).
Continent Density Population Most populous Most populous
name (inhabitants/km2) (2011) country city
Asia 86.7 4,140,336,501
China Tokyo
(1,341,403,687) (35,676,000)
Africa 32.7 994,527,534
Nigeria Cairo
(152,217,341) (19,439,541)
Europe 70 738,523,843
Russia Moscow
(142,905,200) (14,837,510)
Mexico
North
United States
City/Metro
22.9 528,720,588 Area
America (313,485,438)
(8,851,080 /
21,163,226)
South
21.4 385,742,554
Brazil São Paulo
America (190,732,694) (19,672,582)
Oceania 4.25 36,102,071
Australia Sydney
(22,612,355) (4,575,532)
4,490 (non-
McMurdo

71
Antarctica 0.0003 (varies) permanent, N/A
Station (955)
varies)
x
Fig. 3: Countries by Population Density
Source: Wikimedia 10 January 2007.
Figure 3 shows a map of the world, with colours to highlight the
population density of
each country or territory. Numbers on the legend are in people per km2,
and all
countries smaller than 20,000 km2 are represented by a dot.
xi
Table 4: The Ten (10) Countries with the Largest Total Population
Ran
k
Country/Territo
ry Population Date
% of
World
populatio
n
1 China
1,351,930,0
00
July 13,
2012 19.2%
2
Indi
a
1,203,710,0
00
March
2011 17%
3
United
States 313,906,000

72
July 13,
2012 4.47%
4
Indone
sia 238,400,000 May 2010 3.33%
5 Brazil 196,684,000
July 13,
2012 2.8%
6
180,091,000
July 13,
Pakistan 2012 2.56%
7
Niger
ia 170,123,740 July 2012 2.42%
8
Banglad
esh 161,083,804 July 2012 2.29%
9 Russia 141,927,297 January 1, 2010 2.02%
10
Japa
n 127,610,000
May 1,
2012 1.82%
Approximately 4.06 billion people live in these ten countries,
representing around
58% of the world's population as of April 2012. Source: United Nations
(2012),
World Population Guide.
Global Projections
Fig. 4: World Population 1800-2100 Projection
Source: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
xii
World population estimates from 1800 to 2100, based on UN 2010
projections (red,

73
orange, and green) and US Census Bureau historical estimates (black).
According to
the highest estimate, the world population may rise to 16 billion by
2100; according to
the lowest estimate, it may decline to only 6 billion.
The world population has experienced continuous growth since the end
of the Great
Famine and the Black Death in 1350, when it stood at around 370
million. The highest
rates of growth – global population increases above 1.8% per year –
were seen briefly
during the 1950s, and for a longer period during the 1960s and 1970s.
The growth rate
peaked at 2.2% in 1963, and had declined to 1.1% by 2011. Total
annual births were
highest in the late 1980s at about 138 million, and are now expected to
remain
essentially constant at their 2011 level of 134 million, while deaths
number 56 million
per year, and are expected to increase to 80 million per year by 2040.
Current
projections show a continued increase in population (but a steady
decline in the
population growth rate), with the global population expected to reach
between 7.5 and
10.5 billion by 2050.
Each day the world population increases by over 200,000, demanding
the equivalent
of a new city for more than a million inhabitants every week. The total
passed seven
billion in October 2011 and will almost certainly reach eight billion in
2025. The
median projection for 2050 is 9.3 billion.
Table 5: Most Populous Countries, 2011 and 2050
2011 2050
POPULATION COUNTRY POPULATION

74
COUNTRY (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS)
China 1,346 India 1,692
India 1,241 China 1,313
United States 312 Nigeria 433
Indonesia 238 United States 423
Brazil 197 Pakistan 314
Pakistan 177 Indonesia 309
Nigeria 162 Bangladesh 226
Bangladesh 151 Brazil 223
Russia 143 Ethiopia 174
Japan 128 Philippines 150
Source: Population Reference Bureau (2011),
According to current projections, the global population will reach eight
billion by
2030, and will likely reach around nine billion by 2050. Alternative
scenarios for
2050, range from a low population of 7.4 billion to a high of more than
10.6 billion.
Projected figures vary depending on underlying statistical assumptions
and the
variables used in projection calculations, especially the fertility variable.
Long-range
predictions to 2150 range from a population decline to 3.2 billion in the
'low scenario',
xiii
to 'high scenarios' of 24.8 billion. One extreme scenario predicted a
massive increase
to 256 billion by 2150, assuming the global fertility rate remained at its
1995 level of
3.04 children per woman; however, by 2010 the global fertility rate had
declined to
2.52 (United Nations, 2003).
The whole of the increase of 2.3 billion between now and 2050 is
predicted to occur in
developing countries. India‘s population of 1.25 billion will shortly
overtake China,

75
rising to 1.7 billion in 2050. Together these two countries may then
account for almost
a third of the global population (Table 5).
Every two years, the Population Division of the UN Department of
Economic and
Social Affairs publishes its World Population Prospects, essentially a
‘revision’ of
previous projections. Based on the latest national census results and
other surveys, this
is the acknowledged source of global population data.
The 2010 revision concedes that the two key variables in population
projections, life
expectancy and fertility, are fraught with uncertainty over such a long
period. For
example, the significant impact of HIV and AIDS in Southern Africa
could not have
been anticipated on the timescale of these projections. Even a modest
error of 0.5 in
the assumed total fertility rate (TFR - the average number of children
per woman) is
sufficient to generate lower and upper estimates of 8.1 and 10.6 billion
for the 2050
population projection. This sensitivity is an important motivation for
strategies to
stabilise the world population.
Population and Development
The UN‘s population projections assume not only that the demographic
transition will
be reproduced in the poorest countries, but also that it happens relatively
quickly, with
fertility rates falling as low as 2.2 by 2050.
These assumptions are far from certain and will be closely monitored.
Even if they
prove accurate, the outcome will not in itself relieve the challenge of
sustaining a

76
world population of 9-10 billion but it will create the conditions
necessary for long
term stability, or maybe reduction.
As the projected increase will occur entirely in developing countries, the
task of
stabilising world population must be captured within the international
development
agenda. This was exactly the conclusion reached at the landmark 1994
International
Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) whose 20-year
Programme of
Action, known as the Cairo Consensus, has proved to be a decisive
influence on
population policy.
Now coordinated by UNFPA, the Cairo Consensus clarified that
population concerns
are best addressed by redoubling commitment to national poverty
reduction plans in
general and women‘s education and empowerment in particular. For
example, a full
period of schooling for girls reduces the risk of teenage marriage and
increases
awareness and demand for contraception.
xiv
Economic development represents a growth in average income – a rise
in the material
well-being of people in a society. Economic growth often occurs with
population
growth, but an economic development may be hampered by a high rate
of population
growth. Ultimately, continued population growth would lead to a
population too large
for the world‘s resources (Weeks, 1998).
The relationship between economic development and population growth
is currently a
star attraction of world debate.

77
World Population Day
According to United Nations (2012), World Population Day is an
annual event,
observed on July 11, which seeks to raise awareness of global
population issues. The
event was established by the Governing Council of the United Nations
Development
Programme in 1989. It was inspired by the public interest in Five
Billion Day on July
11, 1987, approximately the date on which the world's population
reached five billion
people. There is no estimation for the exact day or month the world's
population
surpassed the one or two billion marks. The days of three and four
billion were not
officially noted, but the International Database of the United States
Census Bureau
places them in July 1959 and April 1974. The United Nations did
determine, and
celebrate, the "Day of 5 Billion" on July 11, 1987, and the "Day of 6
Billion" on
October 12, 1999. The ‘Day of 7 Billion’ was declared by the
Population Division of
the United Nations to be October 31, 2011.
The United Nations' (UN) World Population Day is observed to reaffirm
the human
right to plan for a family. It encourages activities, events and
information to help make
this right a reality throughout the world. World Population Day aims to
increase
people‘s awareness on various population issues such as the importance
of family
planning, including gender equality, poverty, maternal health and
human rights. The
day is celebrated worldwide by business groups, community
organisations and

78
individuals in many ways. Activities include seminar discussions,
educational
information sessions and essay competitions. World Population Day is a
global
observance and not a public holiday.
In 1968, world leaders proclaimed that individuals had a basic human
right to
determine freely and responsibly the number and timing of their
children. About 40
years later, modern contraception remains out of reach for millions of
women, men
and young people. The UN authorised the event as a vehicle to build an
awareness of
population issues and the impact they have on development and the
environment.
In 1989, in its decision 89/46, the Governing Council of the United
Nations
Development Programme (UNDP) recommended that, in order to focus
attention on
the urgency and importance of population issues in the context of
overall development
plans and programmes and the need to find solutions for these issues, 11
July should
be observed by the international community as World Population Day.
xv
Since then, with the United Nations Population Fund's (UNFPA)
encouragement, governments, non-governmental organisations,
institutions and
individuals organise various educational activities to celebrate the
annual event.
As the world population edged to seven billion people in 2011 (up from
2.5 billion in
1950), it has had profound implications for development. A world of
seven billion is
both a challenge and an opportunity with implications on sustainability,
urbanisation,

79
and access to health services and youth empowerment.
This year's World Population Day, 11 July 2012, focuses on the theme
of “Universal
Access to Reproductive Health Services.” Reproductive health
problems remain the
leading cause of ill health and death for women of childbearing age
worldwide. Some
222 million women who would like to avoid or delay pregnancy lack
access to
effective family planning. Nearly 800 women die every day in the
process of giving
life. About 1.8 billion young people are entering their reproductive
years, often
without the knowledge, skills and services they need to protect
themselves. On the
World Population Day, many activities and campaigns call attention to
the essential
part that reproductive health plays in creating a just and equitable world.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
List the importance of celebrating population day in Nigeria
2.3.3 The Nigerian Population
Fig. 5: Map of Nigeria
Source: The Sun Newspaper, 2012
xvi
Size
The actual size of Nigeria‘s population has been a source of controversy
since the
colonial era. The sample census of 1952 under colonial administration
put the
population of Nigeria at 30 million people. The first national census to
be conducted in
independent Nigeria took place in 1963 and a controversial figure of
55.6 million was
recorded. The census of 1971/1972 conducted under military
administration was

80
cancelled because of the highly politicised nature of the counting and
fraudulent
practices which were noticed. The census of 1991 put the population of
Nigeria at 88.5
million people. The 2006 census put the population of Nigeria at about
140 million.
This figure rose to about 150 million, using an annual growth rate of 1.9
%. Currently,
it is estimated, by the United Nations to be 162 million, and the growth
rate is 2.5%.
Population Distribution and Density
There are three major areas of population density and distribution in
Nigeria. These
are areas of high concentration, areas of moderate concentration and
areas of sparse
concentration.
Table 7: Population Distribution by State in 2006
S/N State Total
% of the
Nation
1. Abia 2,833,999 2.02
2. Adamawa 3,168,101 2.26
3. Akwa Ibom 1,920,208 2.80
4. Anambra 4,182,032 2.99
5. Bauchi 4,676,465 3.34
6. Bayelsa 1,703,358 1.22
7. Benue 4,219,244 3.01
8. Borno 4,151,193 2.97
9. Cross River 2,888,966 2.06
10. Delta 4,098,391 2.93
11. Ebonyi 2,173,501 1.55
12. Edo 3,218,332 2.30
13. Ekiti 2,384,212 1.70
14. Enugu 2,353,879 2.33
15. Gombe 2,353,879 1.68
16. Imo 3,934,899 2.81

81
17. Jigawa 4,348,649 3.11
18. Kaduna 6,066,562 4.33
19. Kano 9,383,682 6.70
20. Katsina 5,792,578 4.14
21. Kebbi 3,238,628 2.31
22. Kogi 3,258,487 2.33
23. Kwara 1,548,412 2.22
24. Lagos 9,013,534 6.44
25. Nasarawa 1,863,275 1.33
26. Niger 3,950,249 2.82
27. Ogun 3,658,098 2.16
xvii
28. Ondo 3,441,024 2.46
29. Osun 3,42,535 2.45
30. Oyo 5,591,589 3.99
31. Plateau 3,178,712 2.27
32. Rivers 5,185,100 3.70
33. Sokoto 3,696,999 2.64
34. Taraba 2,300,736 1.64
35. Yobe 2,321,591 1.66
36. Zamfara 3,259,846 2.33
37. Federal capital 1,405,201 1.00
Total 140,003,542 100.00
Source: National Population Commission, Abuja
The greatest concentrations are in the south of the country particularly
in the south
east and the south west. The third area of high density is the central
north of the
country around Kano and Zaria. The most densely populated areas (over
250 persons
per sq.km) are in southern Nigeria and include the localities of Orlu,
Owerri and
Okigwe in Imo State, Ikeja and Agege in Lagos State and parts of Osun
and Ekiti
States. Orlu has the highest density of about 900 persons per square
kilometer.

82
Population densities of between 150 and 250 persons per sq.km are
recorded around
Ibadan, Ilesha, Badagry, Aba, Nsukka, Bende (Abia State), Awgu,
Afikpo and Udi. In
the northern part of the country, population densities of over 100
persons per sq. km
are found in Kano close settled area, Katsina and Jos. Other areas with
high population
densities are Abakaliki, Degema, Enyong, Okene, Abeokuta, Owo,
Warri, Asaba and
Akure. Areas of moderate population concentration (50-100 persons per
sq.km) are
Ahoada, Ilorin, Aboh, Auchi, Ondo, Okitipupa, Ijebu, Epe, Gombe,
Idah, Potiskum
and Dutse. The population in these places is supported by farming
activities. Sparsely
populated areas with less than 50 persons per sq.km are the Middle Belt
of Nigeria,
Kaduna, Niger, Kebbi, northern Kwara, Sokoto, Niger Delta and the
coastal region.
Growth Rates
Nigeria has experienced rapid population growth since the first national
population
sample of 1921. The annual population growth rate was approximately
5.8% between
1952 and 1963. This rate was higher than the estimated 2.3% for the
whole of Africa
and has been criticised. The unreliable nature of population statistics in
Nigeria has
made the Planners to adopt an annual growth rate of between two and
three per cent.
For example, 1.9% has been adopted by the National Population
Commission in
projecting the population of Nigeria. According to the United Nations,
the current
growth rate is 2.5%.

83
Age-Sex Composition
The population of Nigeria, like that of other developing countries, is
largely composed
of young people. The country is just in the incipient stage of the
demographic
transition theory with control over death but with little or no control
over the fertility
rates. About 40 % of the total population falls less than 15 years of age
while those
between 15 and 49 ages are about 50 %. The aged or old people
constitute about 6 %
xviii
of the population. Rural-urban differentials are noticed in the sexes of
the people. In
the urban centres, the proportion of females in each five age groups
exceeds that of
males in the 15 to 35 age categories. The proportion of urban population
in ages zero
to 14 is lower than that of rural population. For ages 15 to 49, the
percentage in urban
population is higher than the rural population. The rural population is a
little higher for
ages 50 and above than the urban population.
Ethnic Characteristics
Nigeria is a multi-ethnic society with over 350 ethno-linguistic groups.
The three
major ethnic groups are the Hausa/Fulani, the Yoruba and Igbo which
constitute over
50 % of the total population. Other ethnic groups are the Kanuris,
Ibibios, Tivs,
Ijaws, Edos, Annangs, Nupes, Igallas, Idomas and Itsekiris which
constitute about 25
% of the total population. There are minority groups like the Igbira,
Gwari, Ekoi,
Mumuye, Ogoni, Isoko, Bura, Efile and Chamba. The Hausas are found
in Kano,

84
Jigawa, Kaduna, Zamfara and Katsina States. The Fulanis are found
mainly in
Sokoto and other northern states while the Kanuris live in Bornu State.
Nupes live in
Niger and Kwara States, the Tivs and Idomas live in Benue State, Igalas
live in Kogi
State, the Igbos in Enugu, Anambra, Ebonyi, Imo, Abia, parts of Delta
and Rivers
States. The Ijaws live in Bayelsa, parts of Delta and River States. The
Yorubas live in
Oyo, Lagos, Ogun, Kwara, Kogi, Osun, Ekiti and Ondo states.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
Study table 7 and describe population distribution in Nigeria
2.3.4 Sources of Population Data
In order to analyse the demography of a particular society, we need to
know how
many people live there, how they are distributed geographically, how
many are being
born, how many are dying, how many are moving in, and how many are
moving out.
Weeks (1998) says that: that is of course only the beginning.
Sources of population data include: Census data, surveys, civil
registration, church
registers, hospital records, interviews. Data from statistical censuses are
the basic
inputs, but have to be augmented with input from questionnaires and
surveys. The
trends are extrapolated (projected forwards).The practical purpose is
that the output
forms the basis for the prediction of number of customers for public and
private
services and products (Wikipedia, 2012).
Population Canvass (Census)
The total population and its geographical distribution can be known
quite easily from

85
a census record. A census is the total process of collecting, compiling
and publishing
demographic, economic and social data pertaining to a specified time or
times to all
persons in a country or in a delimitated territory. Censuses tell us the
size of the
xix
population by sex, age, marital status and citizenship. It gives
information on other
population compositions such as educational level, religion, work status,
and
occupation.
Record System
This consists of some forms or record, which make vital registration of
all vital events
from day to day. Such events include births, deaths and marriages.
Record system uses
population register.
Population Register involves continuous recording of essential
information pertaining
to steady members of the country concerned. The recording system is
more complex
than census and is designed to cover all age and sex groups, all social
classes, and all
ethnic groups. It is an inventory of inhabitants of each area of a country,
which is
continuously amended to take accounts of births, death, marriages,
divorce, change of
name and residence, and change of occupation (Olusanya, 1981), cited
in Ogunbameru
(2009). Registers are established for specific administrative purposes
and cover only
those persons directly affected by the particular programmes. They are
in most cases
collected on day-to-day basis. Most of these registers are continuous,
e.g. birth

86
registers, attendance registers; others are periodic or exist only during
emergency
periods, e.g. Immunisation registers. Some countries that have complete
population
register include: Sweden, Netherlands, Taiwan, Israel and Italy.
Other Data Sources
Sample surveys now represent a major addition or, in some cases an
alternative, to
conventional demographic data sources. Most developed countries have
a range of
government-sponsored surveys which provide far more detailed
information on, for
example, health-related behaviour, family building strategies, or reasons
for migration
than it would be possible to collect in a census. In the developing world,
where other
data sources are scarce, surveys of various kinds often present the best
source of data
on basic demographic parameters. Data quality is potentially much
better in a survey
than a census, as it is more likely that well-trained interviewers can be
used. The
World Fertility Survey, an international population research programme
launched in
1972 to determine fertility levels throughout the world, and its
successor, the
Demographic and Health Survey Programme, and special surveys have
been
particularly valuable in providing data for a range of countries,
including many lacking
adequate vital registration systems. Other approaches to data capture
include multi -
round surveys, in which respondents are asked about events since last
contact, and
dual-record systems which involve two independent data collection
systems (one often

87
a multi- round survey), the results of which are then combined. This
method allows
some estimation of missed events to be made, but it is expensive. Also,
historical
sources are useful. Historical demography requires that we almost
literally dig up
information about the patterns of mortality, fertility and migrations in
past generations.
These approaches are described in more detail in most standard
demographic
textbooks (Shryock et al,. 1976; Newell 1988; Pollard et al., 1990;
Hinde, 1998) in
Weeks, (1998). For published information, the Demographic yearbook;
and Population
xx
Bulletin and World Population Data Sheet, published by the United
Nations and
Population Reference Bureau, respectively, are available, even on-line.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
List the basic sources of population data
2.4 CONCLUSION
The world population which is the sum total of all living humans on
earth, has grown
from one billion in 1804 to seven billion in 2011; and may still grow.
Ultimately, continued population growth would lead to a population too
large for the
world‘s resources.
2.5 SUMMARY
In this unit, population was defined as the people living in an area, and
population
density is the average number of people living in a particular area.
Population
explosion and over population were discussed.
We learnt that: the world population is seven billion and is still growing;
Nigeria is the

88
seventh most populous country in the World and the most populous
country in Africa,
while Cairo is the most populous city in Africa. The World Population
Day which is
an annual event, observed on July 11, seeks to raise awareness of global
population
issues.
We further learnt: that Nigeria has a population of about 162 million
people
distributed over the 36 states and the Federal Capital and the annual
growth rate is
between 2 and 3 % per annum. The southern part is more densely
populated than the
northern part due to ecological and historical differences. Population
growth rates also
vary from one part of the country to the other, due to socio-economic
and ecological
differences. Nigeria has over 350 ethnic groups.
Finally, we identified the sources of population data as: censuses,
registration of vital
events, and surveys. In the next two units, you would use the
information obtained
here to learn more about populations.
2.6 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT
Explain the following:
i. Population density
ii. Population explosion
iii. Natural increase rate
iv. World population day
v. Sources of population data.
xxi
2.7 REFERENCES/FURTHER READING
Bunnett, R.A. (1973). General Geography in Diagrams. London,
England: Longman
Group Ltd. pp. 351 -357.
Course SST 202: Geography for Community Health. N.O.U.N.

89
Lines, C.J. Bolwell, L. H. & Norman, M. (1997). Revised GCSE
Geography. London:
Letts Educational.
Norman, P. (1981). Success in Economic Geography. London:
John Murray.
Ogunbameru, O.e A. (2009). Sociology: A Contemporary Science of
Human
Interaction in Society. Ibadan, Nigeria: Penthouse Publications (Nig.).
Olusanya, P.O. (1981). A Handbook of Demographic Research Methods
for African
Students.‖ Lagos.
Procter, Paul (1978). Longman Dictionary of Contemporary English.
United Nations (2003). Key Findings.‖ Long-Range Population
Projections. New
York: United Nations: Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
United Nations (2012). World Population Day - UN Web Services
Section,
Department of Public Information.
United Nations Populations Division (2012). World Population Guide.
One World.
Wikipedia entry on Demography Retrieved from
"http://en.wikiversity.org/w/index.php?title=Demography&oldid
=603867"
2.8 POSSIBLE ANSWERS TO SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
• Population explosion and over-population
A sudden decrease in the death rate accompanied by an increase in the
birth rate
leading to a rapid overall growth is called population explosion.
A country is said to be over-populated when it has more people than its
resources can support.
• Population distribution (Fig.7)
High population concentration states = above 6%
Moderate population concentration states = 3 – 5 %
Spares population concentration states = less than 3%
• Basic Sources of population data
Census, Organised record system, other sources (surveys, research)

90
1
UNIT 3: POPULATION DYNAMICS AND HEALTH
IMPLICATIONS
CONTENTS
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Objectives
3.3 Main Content
3.3.1 Population Dynamics
3.3.2 Human Population Growth
3.4 Conclusion
3.5 Summary
3.6 Tutor-Marked Assignment
3.7 References/Further Reading
3.8 Possible Answers to Self-Assessment Exercise
3.1 INTRODUCTION
Fertility, migration and urbanisation all affect a population. Increased
population
densities and unhealthy living conditions can ease the transmission of
infections;
migration may also increase vulnerability to disease.
In unit 5, we deliberated on the concept of population; in this unit, we
shall examine
the effect of the structure and movements of a population on the health
of the
population.
3.2 OBJECTIVES
At the end of this unit, you should be able to:
• explain, compare and contrast exponential and linear population
growth
• explain limiting factors to population growth
• identify factors and interactions that limit population growth and size
• predict effects of environmental factors on population growth
• relate public health to population growth.
3.3 POPULATION DYNAMICS AND HEALTH IMPLICATIONS
3.3.1 Population Dynamics

91
The term refers to the ever-changing interrelationships among the set of
variables that
influence the demographic makeup of populations as well as variables
that influence
the growth and decline of population sizes. Among the factors that
relate to the size as
well as the age and sex composition of populations are fertility, death
rates, and
migration.
2
Principles of Population Growth
Population growth is defined as the change in the size of a population
with time
(Biggs, Kapicka and Lundgren, 1998).
The growth of living organisms is different from the growth of other
familiar things
like money. Non-living things like income grow in a straight line. It has
linear
increase and the growth is steady. For example, a daily paid labourer
who earns N800
per day will in ten days earn: N 800+ N 800+ N 800+ N 800+ N 800+ N
800+ N 800+
N 800+ N 800+ N 800 = N 8000 (i.e. N 800 x10). For living organisms,
the initial
increase in the number of organisms is slow because the number of
reproducing
organisms is small. Soon, however, the rate of population growth
increases rapidly
because the total number of potentially reproducing organisms
increases. This is
exponential growth, and it is the type seen in human beings.
Exponential growth of a
population of organisms occurs when the number of organisms rises at
an ever
increasing rate. Linear is like a straight line graph (/) while Exponential
is ( j ) shaped

92
(look at Figure 6). An exponential growth curve means that if growth
doubles during
approximately equal intervals of time, it suddenly accelerates.
Exponential growth
results in population explosion.
Fig. 6: Growth Curves
Source: Vines and Rees (1972).pp. 489.
Can populations grow indefinitely? The answer is no. Populations do
have limiting
factors in their environment, such as availability of food and space. The
number of
organisms of a population that a particular environment can support
over an indefinite
period of time is known as its carrying capacity. Carrying capacity is
represented by
the letter K. When populations are under the carrying capacity of a
particular
environment, births will exceed deaths until the carrying capacity is
reached. If the
3
population temporarily overshoots the capacity, deaths will exceed
births until
population levels are once again at carrying capacity.
Limits to Population Growth and Size
Environmental factors, such as food availability and temperature, which
affects an
organisms‘ ability to survive in its environment are ‘Limiting factors.’
A limiting
factor is any biotic or abiotic factor that restricts the existence, numbers,
reproduction,
or distribution of organisms. Apart from biology, population increase
depends on
other social factors like - wars, booms and depressions, plagues and
famines,
fluctuations of rates of births, deaths and migration. Factors that limit
one population

93
in a community may also have an indirect effect on another population.
The ability to
withstand fluctuations in biotic and abiotic environmental factors is
known as
Tolerance.
Limiting factors also regulate the size of a population. Limited food
supply, extreme
temperatures, and even storms, can affect population size. The two
kinds of limiting
factors identified are: density-dependent and density- independent
factors. Densitydependent
factors include disease, competition, and parasites, which have an
increasing effect as the population increases. Disease for example,
spreads more
quickly in a population whose members live close together, than in
smaller
populations whose members live farther from each other. In less dense
populations,
fewer individuals may be affected; while in dense populations, the
entire population
may be affected. Density-independent factors affect all populations,
regardless of
their density. Most density-independent factors are abiotic factors such
as
temperatures, storms, floods, and drought.
Apart from environmental factors, other interactions that limit
population size include
effects of competition and crowding. Organisms within a population
constantly
compete for resources. When population numbers are low, resources are
plentiful.
Competition is a density-dependent factor. When population size
increases to the point
at which demand for these resources exceeds the supply, the population
size decreases.

94
Also, when populations of organisms become crowded, individuals may
exhibit stress
including aggression, decreased fertility, and decreased resistance to
disease. All of
these symptoms can lead to a decrease in population size.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
Write a sentence that shows your understanding of each of the following
terms:
i. Tolerance ii. carrying capacity iii. population density iv. density
independent factors.
3.3.2 Human Population Growth
Demography is the study of population characteristics such as growth
rate, age
structure, and movement of individuals. Birth rate, death rate, and
fertility differ
considerably among different countries, resulting in uneven population
growth patterns
across the world.
4
Kpedekpo (1992), cited in Nnodu, Okoye and Onwuka (2008),
maintained that
population growth could also be termed population change. The change
may be an
increase or decrease in the population size and components.
The total of the three demographic variables – fertility, mortality, and
net migrationgives
us a country‘s growth rate, the net change after people have been added
to and
subtracted from a population. The basic demographic equation is:
growth rate =
births – deaths + net migration.
Problems in Forecasting Population Growth
The difficulty in predicting the future population growth of the world
became very
clear when the United Nations and the US Census Bureau both gave
different

95
estimates for ‗the world at seven billion‘. According to the latter, the
world
population reached seven billion in March 2012, while the UN asserted
that this
occurred in late 2011.
How fast can populations grow? According to Weeks (1998), a common
way of
measuring the growth potential of any combination of birth and death
rates is to
calculate the doubling time. The doubling time is the time required for
a population
to double if the current rate of growth continues. The doubling time is
approximately
equal to 70 divided by the growth rate (in per cent per year). The 70 in
the formula
derives from the fact that populations grow exponentially; each
generation builds on
the preceding generation in a compound fashion. Mathematically, this
exponential
growth is expressed by natural logarithms. Thus, to find out how long it
would take a
population to double in size, we must find the natural logarithm (ln or
loge) of 2. This
turns out to be 0.70 which becomes 70 when multiplied by 100 to get
rid of the
decimal points. Then dividing the rate of growth into 70 tells us how
many years
would be required for a population to double. In the same way, if we
want to find out
how long it would take the population to triple in size, we first find the
natural
logarithm of 3, which is 1.10 or Dividing 110 by the growth rate tells us
how long it
would take for the world population to triple in size.
Problems of Population Growth

96
The greatest single challenge facing nearly all countries is the need to
control the
growth of population. The problem is not so much of the size of the
population, but its
rate of growth. The main problems are:
• the world does not have unlimited resources
• the more developed countries use up more resources than poorer
countries
• the poorer countries which have the most rapid increases in
populations are
unable to increase their food production rapidly
• low levels of education and inadequate facilities make it difficult to
introduce
birth control programmes in some least economically developed
countries
• tradition and religious beliefs also discourage birth control
5
• only about one –fifth of the land area of the world can be used for
agriculture
and habitation
• the difficulty of adequately housing and feeding the increasing
population can
lead to unrest and high crime rates
• rapid population growth leads to increasing urbanisation.
But urgent action is still required in many regions, to ensure that
effective measures
are taken, to prevent the population of a country from increasing to a
point which will
threaten, and eventually erode the standard of living of those regions.
Population and Public Health
Fig. 7: Sanitation Problems of Population Growth
Source: Photographs by author
No discussion of changes in the health of the people of our world can be
viewed in
perspective without consideration of the single most significant
phenomenon in our

97
history….the population explosion. The potential consequences of this
biologic surge
are so great and far reaching in terms of local and world politics,
economics, ethics,
and even ultimate existence as to justify concern and possibly
pessimism.
Increasingly, public health workers are criticised for compounding the
problems of the
world by causing widespread overpopulation through their dramatic
saving and
extension of lives. Public health workers, sociologists, political
scientists, and others
have long been aware of a relationship between public health activities
and increases
in the populations of nations and of the world. Awareness has been
sharpened by
recent world events, especially the sustained rise in birth rates in many
areas and the
growth and success of international technical assistance programs in
health and
sanitation. This awareness has reached the point of acute concern, which
increasingly
is voiced in part by questioning (indeed, even condemnation) of the
activities of the
‘dangerous doctor’ the ‘heedless hygienist’ and the ‘cynical Sanitarian’
(Hanlon and
Pickett, 1979). On the other hand, there are those who are optimistic
concerning the
ability of this planet to sustain us.
Fertility, migration and urbanisation affect the spread of diseases
including
tuberculosis, malaria and HIV/AIDS. Increased population densities and
unhealthy
6
living conditions in urban slums can ease the transmission of infections.
Migration

98
may also increase vulnerability to disease. Infectious diseases such as
HIV/AIDS have
had a large impact on demographic trends, altering the age structures of
heavily
affected countries.
Comprehensive prevention policies, programs and services are the most
cost-effective
ways of reducing the burden of HIV/AIDS and other infectious
diseases. Those who
seek reproductive health services and those who seek HIV services
share many
common needs and concerns. Therefore, integrating these services has
the potential to
increase access to health services and improve health outcomes.
Integrated
programmes that increase women‘s access to contraceptives result in
healthier families
and reduced health care expenditures to treat malaria, tuberculosis and
other
communicable diseases. Beyond access to health care, HIV and
infectious disease
prevention programs must also address the gender inequalities that
increase the
likelihood of infection among women.
However, as Sears (1959) has observed, ‘No form of life can continue to
multiply
indefinitely without eventually coming to terms with the limitations of
its
environment. Every wise gardener knows better than to crowd his luck
by crowding
his plants too closely. Even the most aggressive organisms, such as
weeds, rodents,
and noxious insects, do not increase and spread indefinitely’.
Dynamics of Population Growth
When population growth data are studied, it becomes apparent that
many forces in

99
addition to public health are involved. Thus the onset of the upswing in
world
population actually antedates the modern public health movement.
Hanlon and Pickett
(1979) noted that a significant quickening in the rate of population
increase began
about 1650. It is difficult to determine the relative importance of the
various factors
that must have been involved in the reduction of mortality and in the
resultant increase
in population. However, the increases during the first part of this period
could not
have been due to public health measures because few if any existed.
Rather, the
determining factors appear to have been changing social organisation, a
rising
standard of living, gradually improved nutrition and work conditions,
and appearance
of certain social reforms.
In Europe, a significant excess of births over deaths was already well
established by
the 18th century. This produced a steady population increase despite
fluctuations due to
frequent epidemics and occasional famine. Then in the mid-19th
century, a great
decrease in mortality began, with a consequent upsurge in the rate of
population
increase. A peak was reached in the early 20th century, despite much
emigration. This
upsurge may be attributed to the development of improved
transportation, which
facilitated a wider distribution of goods and people; to the technologic
progress of the
Industrial Revolution, which provided more goods and improved living
conditions for

100
greater number of people; and more recently, to the acquisition and
wide application of
new knowledge concerning the cause and prevention of disease.
Subsequently, despite
7
a continued decline in death rates, population growth in Europe
decelerated as a result
of a rapid fall in birth rates.
The larger the area effectively available to a species, the more the
species tends to
move and also increase. Thus an inoculum multiplies and spreads
throughout a
container of nutrient broth. This has also been the experience of
humans, most
noticeably when new lands were discovered or developed. It was
obviously more than
chance that the beginning population upswing in the world coincided
with the great
period of discovery, colonisation, and exploitation, and with more
widely available
and more rapid means of transportation.
Without doubt, public health measures have contributed to the increase
in population
during the past century. They have done so in four ways:
(1) by improving the chances of fruitful conception, (2) by greatly
increasing the
chances among infants and young children, (3) by preventing the
premature deaths of
many young adults who comprise the most fertile component of a
population and the
group that has the longest period of future fecundity, and (4) by greatly
reducing the
number of marriages dissolved by the death of the partner.
Among the social and economic factors related to the dynamics of
population,

101
consideration must be given to the extent of urbanisation and
industrialisation. These
are two of the most notable phenomena of our time and are closely
related. They have
an interesting two-phased effect on population growth….initial
encouragement,
followed by secondary retardation. The sequence is complex but
basically appears to
be about as follows. Industry, concentrated in centres of population and
offering a
means to obtain cash income, trends to attract especially the more
mobile, vigorous,
and adventurous young adults. At first, they tend to follow the old
established,
essentially rural customs of their kind….marry young and aspire to
large families.
Sexual union among them is more fruitful because of their youth and
because of the
long average remaining period of fecundity. To this extent,
industrialisation and
urbanisation result in a substantial initial increase in the rate of
population growth.
However, with improved education, growing sophistication,
stabilisation of the labour
force, the wish for an improved standard of living, social rivalries, and
competition for
time, energy, and income, there develops an emphasis on rationality and
independence
from tradition, with a breaking away from the traditional conservative
cultural ties.
Marriages are delayed, and families are kept small for the sake of more
education,
increased income, or improved social position. Children come to be
considered less an
economic asset and more an economic burden. Family life becomes less
cohesive

102
because individuals have many contacts outside the home. Since life
becomes
increasingly complex, sexual intercourse becomes less frequent or more
vicarious and
chances of fertilisation decrease. Added to this is the more ready
availability of
methods of contraception and the knowledge to obtain and use them.
Hence,
industrialisation and urbanisation result eventually in a decreased rate of
reproduction
and population growth. This has been found to hold true in eastern as
well as in
western civilisations.
8
Population and Environment
Friis (2010), observed that: ‘Currently increasing at a geometric rate, the
human
population threaten to overwhelm available resources. One of the
consequences of
population growth has been to encourage the conversion of large rural
forested areas
of the earth into cities. Urbanisation is linked to numerous adverse
implications for
the health of populations, unduly increasing rates of morbidity and
mortality’.
Largely as a result of human action, profound changes are occurring in
our
environment. The basic course of almost all of those problems is the
world‘s larger
and growing population, which consumes so much energy and produces
so much
quantity of toxic wastes. Environmental changes if accompanied by
economic and
political instability, could lead to the collapse of organised health
services.

103
Vulnerable subgroups of the population, that is, the elderly persons with
disabilities
and chronic diseases, pregnant women and children are more likely to
be affected by
environmental hazards for example than are members of the general
population.
A growing body of evidence shows that recent climate change is
primarily the result
of human activity, according to the State of World Population 2009.
‘But the influence
of human activity on climate change is complex and non-linear. Climate
change‘s
influence on people is also complex, spurring migration, destroying
livelihoods,
disrupting economies, undermining development and exacerbating
inequities between
the sexes’.
Population dynamics are especially relevant to the debate about coping
with or
adapting to climate change. Some poor countries with rapid population
growth may
not have the capacity to adapt through, for example, migration from
low-lying coastal
areas to urban areas because services, housing and employment
opportunities for the
new residents may be inadequate.
As populations are growing, it makes economic and environmental
sense for people to
move closer together in urban areas. Urbanisation creates jobs and
enables countries to
provide essential services at lower costs per capita. It can also reduce
energy
consumption, especially in transportation and housing, and it can ease
population
pressures in rural areas.

104
The growth of cities everywhere poses real challenges for governments
and the people
who live in them. But urbanisation can be a positive driver for
sustainable economic,
environmental and social development. According to a 2011 UNFPA
report,
developing countries are in charge of growing the food and feeding the
family, they
are the first ones to feel the effects of environmental problems like
droughts or floods.
Climate change has the potential to reverse the hard-earned
development gains of the
past decades and the progress towards achieving the Millennium
Development Goals,
according to the World Bank. Setbacks will result from water scarcities,
intense
tropical storms and storm surges, floods, loss of glacial melt water for
irrigated
agriculture, food shortages and health crises (United Nations, 2009).
9
The Green Revolution is a recent phenomenon involving an increase in
grain yields
through the development of new strains of plants. One side effect of the
effort to grow
more food is degradation of the environment. The impact on the
environment of
population growth is compounded by the level of social affluence and
economic
technology.
Weeks (1998), indicated that food production and consumption are
paradoxically
associated with potential health hazards. Many ingredients that go into
increased
yields, increased storage time, and increased palatability of foods may
be inadvertently
lowering the overall quality of life.

105
Anderson, Morton, and Green (1978), pointed out that environmental
resistance is
expressed in parasitism, food supply, accidents, cold, heat, and other
factors that may
affect life adversely.
To a certain extent, man can bend nature to his will and control his
environment. The
extent to which man will be able to control the factors of environmental
resistance will
be the important element in determining the direction of human
population growth in
the world in the immediate future as well as over the coming centuries.
For an
individual nation to survive, it must have a positive vital index which is
the
relationship of births per thousand to deaths per thousand populations.
For example, if
a country has a birth rate of 14.9 per thousand and a death rate of 9.2 per
thousand, it
still has a healthy vital index of 5.6. When a nation‘s vital index begins
to approach
two, that nation‘s population is becoming static. If deaths exceed births
in a nation,
that nation will have a negative vital index symptomatic of national
decline.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
State the effects of human population growth on the environment
3.4 CONCLUSION
Density dependent factors such as disease and food supply, and density-
independent
factors such as weather, have effects on population size. Interactions
among organisms
also limit population size. Unlike other organisms, humans can
manipulate and
regulate limiting factors, and this has resulted in a large increase of
world‘s human

106
population. Many ecologists suggest that the pollution observed today is
directly
related to the world‘s increasing human population. If the human
population continues
to grow at the present pace, additional environmental problems will
result from such
things as a diminishing energy supply and increasing pollution, with
consequent health
implications.
Since increased population densities and unhealthy living conditions can
ease the
transmission of infections; and migration may also increase
vulnerability to disease,
adequate care should be taken to ensure that composition, size and
distribution/movements of a population do not have negative
implications on the
health of the population.
10
3.5 SUMMARY
In this unit, we looked at population dynamics and learnt that:
Populations grow
exponentially until they reach the carrying capacity of the environment.
We also learnt that: Environmental factors which affect an organisms‘
ability to
survive in its environment are called ‘limiting factors’ and they could
be density
dependent or density-independent. The ability to withstand fluctuations
in biotic and
abiotic environmental factors is known as tolerance. Apart from
environmental
factors, other interactions that limit population size include effects of
competition and
crowding.
We further learnt that: population growth could also be termed
population change. The

107
change may be an increase or decrease in the population size and
components. The
total of the three demographic variables – fertility, mortality, and net
migration- gives
us a country‘s growth rate, and therefore, the basic demographic
equation is:
Growth rate = births – deaths + net migration.
A common way of measuring the growth potential of any combination
of birth and
death rates is to calculate the doubling time. The doubling time is the
time required
for a population to double if the current rate of growth continues. The
doubling time
is approximately equal to 70 divided by the growth rate (in per cent per
year).
The problem of population is not so much of the size of the population,
but its rate of
growth which threatens to overwhelm available resources. One of the
consequences of
population growth is urbanisation which is linked to numerous adverse
implications
for the health of populations, unduly increasing rates of morbidity and
mortality.
We learnt that recent climate change is primarily the result of human
activity, and the
influence of climate change on people is complex.
3.6 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT
i. Differentiate between exponential and linear population growth.
ii. Explain ‘Limiting factors’; and give two examples each, for density
dependent and density-independent factors.
iii. How would an increase or decrease in the population of a Local
Government
Area affect the occurrence of water related diseases in that locality?
11
3.7 REFERENCES/FURTHER READING

108
Anderson, C.L. Morton, R. F. & Green, L. W. (1978). Community
Health. (3rd ed.).
Saint Louis: the C.V. Mosby Company.
Biggs A., Kapicka C. & Lundgen L. (1998). Biology the
Dynamics of Life. U.S.A: Glencoe/ McGraw-Hill.
Friis, R. H. (2010). Essentials of Environmental Health (Essential
Public Health). (2nd ed.).
Amazon.com.
Gordon, J.E. Wyon, J.E.& Ingalis, T.H. (1954).Public Health as a
Demographic Influence.
Americam Journal of Medical Science.
Hanlon, J. S. & Pickett, G. E. (1979). Public Health: Administration
and Practice. (7th ed.).
U.S.A: C.V. Mosby Company.
Nnodu, V. C. Okoye, C. O. & Onwuka, S. U. (2008). Urban
Environmental Problems in
Nigeria. Nimo, Nigeria: Rex Charles & Patrick Limited.
Sears, P.B. (1959). Pressures of Population, an Ecologist‘s Point of
View, What‘s New?
United Nations (2009). World Population Aging 1950-2050. New York:
Population Division
of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
UNFPA (2011). www.unfpa.org
12
3.8 POSSIBLE ANSWERS TO SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
• Definition of terms
Tolerance : The ability to withstand fluctuations in biotic and abiotic
environmental factors
Carrying capacity: The number of organisms of a population that a
particular
environment can support over an indefinite period of time
Population density: Average number of people living in a particular
area. It is
also a measure of the degree of crowding (intensity) in populations.
• Effects of population growth on the environment
Urbanisation, high morbidity and mortality rates, environmental waste,

109
environmental hazards on vulnerable groups, effects on food
production.
13
UNIT 4: POPULATION STRUCTURE AND POPULATION
MOVEMENT
CONTENTS
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Objectives
4.3 Main Content
4.3.1 Population Structure
4.3.2 Population Movement
4.4 Conclusion
4.5 Summary
4.6 Tutor- Marked Assignment
4.7 References/Further Reading
4.8 Possible Answers to Self-Assessment Exercise
4.1 INTRODUCTION
The previous unit focused on the components of demography, and
demographic
variables, and also explained population structure and migration. In this
unit, we shall
study in more detail, the makeup of population – population structure;
we shall also
discuss population movement or migration.
4.2 OBJECTIVES
At the end of this unit, you should be able to:
• describe population structure using population pyramids
• explain the meaning of dependency
• discuss migration.
4.3 POPULATION STRUCTURE AND POPULATION
MOVEMENT
4.3.1 Population Structure
The population structure is the distribution of the population by age
groups. Population
structure addresses the relationship between population processes and
demographic

110
characteristics of populations such as the age, sex, race, ethnicity,
marital status,
education, occupation, and income.
A structure is something that is built or constructed. In social science, it
refers more
broadly to a pattern of interrelationships between parts of a society.
Weeks (1998),
said that an age and sex structure actually combines both definitions,
since it
represents the number of people of a given age and sex in society and is
built from the
input of births at age zero and deaths and migration at every age.
14
Age and sex influence the working of society in important ways because
society
assigns social roles and frequently organises people into groups on the
basis of their
age and gender. Further, at very young and very old ages, people are
more dependent
on others for survival, and so the proportions of people at these ages
will influence
how society works. A population is considered old or young, depending
on the
proportion of people at different ages. In general, a population with
more than about
35 per cent of its people under age 15 is ‘young’, and a population with
more than
about 10 per cent of its people aged 65 or older can be considered ‘old’.
There are three major ways in which we can graphically or statistically
quantify the
age structure. These include: constructing a population pyramid,
calculating the
average of a population, and calculating the dependency ratio.
To illustrate population dynamics, demographers use population
pyramids. A

111
population pyramid is a graphic representation of the distribution of a
population by
age and sex. These depict a country‘s population by age and sex.
Countries with high
birth rates have a population pyramid with a broad base, tapering in the
higher age
ranges. By contrast, a population with low birth rates is top heavy, due
to a high
proportion of people of retirement age and of those receiving pensions.
Figure 4.1
shows the population pyramids of Germany, Mexico and the United
States of
America. In each pyramid: the male population is on your left hand side,
while the
female population is on the right hand side. As you can see from these
population
pyramids, a much higher percentage of Mexican women are in their
childbearing
years. Even if Mexico and the United States had the same birth rate, a
larger
percentage of women in Mexico would be giving birth, and Mexico‘s
population
would grow faster. Demographers refer to this as population
momentum. Here,
Mexico‘s age structure gives it greater population momentum.
As shown also in Figure 8, Mexico‘s population momentum is so strong
that its
population will double in thirty-five years. Henslin (2009), observed
that the
implications of a doubling population are worrisome. He noted that just
to stay even,
within thirty-five years, Mexico must double the number of available
jobs and housing
facilities;
its food production; its transportation and communication facilities; its
water, gas,

112
sewer, and electrical systems; and its schools, hospitals, churches, civic
buildings,
theatres, stores, and parks. If Mexico fails to double them, it‘s already
poor standard of
living will drop even further. Henslin (2009) highlighted the threat of
political
instability which conflict theorists point out that a declining standard of
living poses.
They are protests, riots, and even revolution; and in response, the
government tries to
stop them. This can give rise to more trouble and can spill from one
country to
another.
15
Fig. 8: Three Population Pyramids of Germany, Mexico & USA
Source: Biggs, Kapicka & Lundgren (1998)
Dependency
What is Dependency?
Demographers make the assumption that most of the people between the
ages of 15
and 65 are working and that people between the ages of zero to 15, and
65 and over
are dependent on those who work. People view children and the elderly
as dependent
on those who work (Weeks, 1996:257).
Dependency within the Family
Compare two families with equal resources. One family, however, has
two children
while the other family has 10 children. The family with 10 children has
to spend more
of the family resources on providing essentials for the family's survival
(food, shelter,
etc.). A smaller family does not have to spend as much as the larger
family on
necessities. The extra money can be used to build security.

113
Nations and states experience the same problems that families do, when
the number of
dependents in the population is too large compared to the number of
people who are
available to support those dependents. Dependency ratios describe the
relationship
16
between workers and dependents. In countries with high rates of
dependency, money
that should be directed toward building an infrastructure has to go
toward feeding
babies and supporting an excess population. High dependency ratios
mean that money
is being directed toward support of dependents and not toward the
development of the
infrastructure. What infrastructure that is already in place experiences
even greater
strain as population pressure increases (Russ Long‘s, 2008).
The population of a country can be divided into: the non-economically
active,
generally those still at school or college or who have retired; and the
economically
active or population of working age. Those who are non- economically
active are
dependent on those at work, and this can be shown statistically as a
dependency ratio.
Children and elderly X 100 = dependency ratio.
Those of working age
This depends on the legal meaning of Children and elderly in the
country of
application. For example, in Nigeria, children are persons under 18years
old, and the
retirement age for the majority of public servants is 60 years. So,
demographic
dependency ratios are calculated by dividing the population aged 0–14
(or 0–19) plus

114
the population aged 60 (or 65) by the remaining population
(conventionally called the
working age population). The old age dependency ratio is calculated as
the ratio of
older people to the working age population.
Population of persons 0-14 (or 0-19) years old + Population
of persons 60 (or 65) years old or more X 100
Dependency Ratio = Population of persons 15-64 years or 19 – 59
years old
Demographic Dividend
The prospective contribution of growth to this strategy for stabilising
population is
bolstered by an economic theory of demographics. Poor countries enjoy
favourable
dependency ratios, their populations dominated by potentially
productive young
people.
____ __ _'___ +__#%_(_+ __ ___ _+_*__%____#
+_0_+__+ __+ ___ (___ ____#____+ ____
the tiger economies of East Asia.
Some economists interpret recent strong rates of growth in Africa as
evidence of this
demographic dividend. Others fear that poor infrastructure, governance
and education
will stifle the potential. Very high rates of youths unemployment do
indeed persist in
Africa and parts of the Middle East.
The demographic dividend is a fleeting opportunity which can quickly
overturn into
social unrest, as illustrated by recent dramatic events in several Arab
countries.
There is further concern that a hard core of about 25 of the very poorest
countries
cannot possibly benefit from the demographic dividend. They show
signs of being
17

115
trapped in a demographic vortex, where low resilience to the impact of
climate change
on food and water scarcity offers no escape from exceptionally high
fertility rates of
around eight children per woman.
Whilst there is some truth in the adage that ‘development is the best
contraceptive’, it
is wise to award at least equal status to the view that ‘contraception is
the best
development’.
SELF -ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
Study Figure 8 carefully. Which age groups are shaded? What are they
called?
4.3.2 Population Movement
Migration is the movement of people from one geographical area to
another. It is one
of the components of population growth apart from fertility and
mortality. The third
demographic variable is the net migration rate, which is the difference
between the
number of immigrants (people moving into the country) and emigrants
(people moving
out of a country) per 1000 populations. Unlike fertility and mortality,
migration does
not affect the global population, for people are simply shifting their
residence from one
country or region to another. It is very important in demographic study
and it is not
just about movement. For example, traveling to Lagos from Ilesa or
Kaduna to Abuja,
or Abakaliki to Enugu for a short stay cannot be regarded as migration.
The reasons for migration are many and varied but they can usually be
classified
either as push factors or pull factors. Push factors come in to play when
conditions

116
in the home area are such that people feel they need to move to a
different area in
search of an improvement to their lifestyle. Pull factors take effect
when
opportunities are offered in another area so that people are drawn
towards life in a
different place. People who are forced to leave their home are known as
refugees.
Refugees seek refuge in another area because of circumstances over
which they have
no control. These circumstances include: natural disaster, famine, ethnic
cleansing,
accidents, slavery, politics, religious persecution and war.
Types of Migration
We have two major types of migration: internal and international
migration.
1. Internal Migration: is the movement of people within the same
country without
crossing any international boundary. The term is relative. In terms of a
given
State, internal migration is movement within the State without crossing
to
another State. In terms of nation, say Nigeria, it is movement within,
without
crossing boundary or move to other nations. In internal migration, there
are no
legal constraints on migrants. You do not need to obtain visa or passport
or any
other document before you can migrate internally.
2. International Migration: this is movement of persons across
boundaries between
two or more countries after having satisfied all the conditions necessary.
People
18
moving from one area into another within the same country –such
people

117
moving are referred to as in-migrants, while those moving out of an area
are
known as out-migrant. This will depend on one‘s reference point i.e.
origin or
destination. The process is called in-migration and out-migration
respectively.
On the other hand, when people move from one country to another, such
people
are referred to in the receiving areas of destination as immigrants. The
process is
referred to as immigration and emigration respectively.
Ogunbameru (2009), stressed that the internal movements are more
important than the
international ones. There are various types of movement within a
country: Rural –
rural migration; Rural – urban migration; Urban – urban migration;
Urban – rural
migration.
i. Rural-rural migration: This involves people moving from one rural
area to
another. An example of this kind of migration is the movement of
farmers from
one agricultural area to another looking for fertile land.
ii. Rural-urban migration: Is the movement of people from rural area
(urban area
has a population of at least 20,000 people; anything less than this is
regarded as
rural by 1963 census) to urban area.
iii. Urban-urban migration: This is another type of migration that
involves
movement from one urban location to another. It is a form of migration
that
predominates in societies with a high index of urbanisation; it is
confined to
countries where both medium-sized towns and large cities co-exist.
Urbanurban

118
migration is a feature of countries with diversified urban systems and
social, economic, and administrative facilities. It may be a movement
from an
area of industrial concentration to an area with an expanding services
sector. In
some instances, it may be occasioned by the desire to avoid a particular
neighbourhood.
iv. Urban-rural migration: This is not so common, although it does
happen. For
instance, people who worked for many years in the urban centre but
now
determined to return home after retirement, though it is not a case of
permanent
movement.
In the whole of Africa over the years, the most common one is the rural-
urban
migration, whereby the youth move to the urban centres to seek for
white collar job. It
was as a result of the movement of these people that farm settlements
were established
in various places of Nigeria so that the movement may be reduced. In
most cases, the
urban centres, particularly in Nigeria are not ready for them.
Around the world, the flow of migration is from the least industrialised
nations to the
__+___%______+ #____%____ -'__% _*__%___
_____ _%_ ____(_____+_ _**__%_____ _'___
accelerates as network of kin and friends become additional magnets
that attract more
people from the same nation, and even the same village (Henslin, 2009).
Using the United States of America economy for example, opinions are
divided among
Experts as to whether immigrants contribute to the economy or drain it.
According to
Simon (1986, 1993), cited in (Henslin, 2009), they conclude that
immigrants produce

119
19
more than they cost. Looking at the same data, other economists
conclude that
immigrants drain tax payers of billions of dollars a year (Huddle 1993;
Davis and
Weinstein 2002) cited in (Henslin, 2009).
As a factor of population dynamics, migration causes increases or
decreases of
population in a particular area, depending upon which way the flow
goes. Also, the
organisation of living things in space is generally quite related to the
methods they use
to exploit their environment. Spatial organisation and the population
mechanism are
inseparable. Since migration operates in two ways at the same time, it
provides a good
example of how spatial organisation and the population mechanism are
correlated. As
expected, movement of an individual or group out of one area
automatically means
movement into another and thus, spatial reorganisation.
Consequences of Migration
According to Lines and Norman (1997): the movement of people either
within a
country or to another country affects both the source and the destination
of the
migrants in both positive and negative ways thus: At source:
• The birth rate may be lowered
• There may be less pressure on job and certain resources
• Migrants may send money back to their families
• New skills may be learned which may eventually be brought back to
the area
• Labour shortages may be created in some places of work
• Families may be split up, often only the male family members migrate
• Those who migrate tend to be those with skills and education
• The average age of the population may increase

120
• A concentration with a high proportion of older people puts a strain
on services
and amenities.
At destination:
• Labour shortages are solved
• Less attractive jobs not wanted by local people are often taken
willingly by
immigrants
• Migrant workers are often prepared to work longer hours than the
host
population
• New cultures are introduced including foods, music and leisure
activities
• Population growth is affected as many migrants are of child-bearing
age
• In times of recession, migrants may be seen as a burden on health and
social
services provision
• Racial tension may result from international migration and resentment
can
develop
• International migrants are not always prepared to become part of the
host
culture and ghettos may develop.
20
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
List and explain the different types of migration
4.4 CONCLUSION
Our focus in this unit was on population structure and population
movement. In
conclusion, note that: A country‘s population structure is the
distribution of the
population by age groups and sex. Populations that are dominated by
potentially
productive young people enjoy favourable dependency ratios. As a
factor of

121
population dynamics, migration causes increases or decreases of
population in a
particular area, depending upon which way the flow goes. People move
within their
own country or to a different country for a variety of reasons. They may
be ‘pushed’
from their origin due to war, famine or natural disasters. They may be
‘pulled’ to a
new area by the attraction of work, housing, health and social service
provision.
4.5 SUMMARY
In this unit, you learnt that: The population structure is the distribution
of the
population by age groups. Demographers use population pyramids,
which depict a
country‘s population by age and sex, to illustrate population dynamics.
A country that
has a high percentage of women in their reproductive years would grow
faster, and
demographers refer to this as population momentum. Also, those who
are noteconomically
active, the children and elderly, are dependent on those of working age.
You further learnt that: there are two types of population movement:
International
migration from one country to another and Internal migration from one
part of a
country to another part. Those who migrate are called migrants; and the
place they
have come from is known as the source or origin, and the place where
they go to is
called the destination. People moving out of a country are emigrants and
when they
arrive in their new country of destination they become immigrants to
that country. The
movement of people within a country is called in-migration, out-
migration or

122
transmigration depending upon the direction of movement.
4.6 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT
Write notes on:
i. Dependency
ii. Population pyramid
iii. Migration.
21
4.7 REFERENCES/FURTHER READING
Biggs A., Kapicka C. & Lundgen L. (1998). Biology, the Dynamics of
Life. U.S.A:
Glencoe/ McGraw-Hill.
Henslin, J. M. (2009). Essentials of Sociology: A Down-to- Earth
Approach. (8th ed.). U.S.A.: Allyn and Bacon. Pp. 402-405.
Lines, C.J. Bolwell, L. H. & Norman, M. (1997). Revise GCSE
Geography. London:
Letts Educational.
Ogunbameru, O. A. (2009). Sociology: A Contemporary Science of
Human
Interaction in Society. Ibadan, Nigeria: Penthouse Publications (Nig.)
Russ, L. (2008). Introduction to Demography. Lecture Notes.
Samuelson, P. A. (1980). Economics. (11th ed.). Tokyo: McGraw-Hill
Kogakusha
Ltd.
4.8 POSSIBLE ANSWERS TO SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
• Shaded age groups in Fig. 8 carefully
The age groups from 15 – 44 years old are shaded.
They are the reproductive age group of the population
• Types of migration
Rural-rural - movement from one rural area to another
Rural-urban – movement from rural to urban areas
Urban-urban – movement from one urban location to another
Urban-rural – movement from an urban location to rural area
22
MODULE 3 CENSUS
Unit 1 Census: Types and Methods
Unit 2 Census Principles and Practice

123
Unit 3 Application of Census Data
Unit 4 Population Data and the Planning of Social Services
UNIT 1 CENSUS: TYPES AND METHODS
CONTENTS
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Objectives
1.3 Main Content
1.3.1 Definition of Census
1.3.2 Types of Census
1.3.3 Census Methods
1.4 Conclusion
1.5 Summary
1.6 Tutor-Marked Assignment
1.7 References/Further Reading
1.8 Possible Answers to Self-Assessment Exercise
1.1 INTRODUCTION
Earlier on, you read about census as a direct method of data collection.
You learnt that
censuses do more than just count people. They typically collect
information about
families or households in addition to individual characteristics such as
age, sex,
marital status, literacy/education, employment status, and occupation,
and
geographical location. In this unit, we shall discuss the types and
methods of census.
1.2 OBJECTIVES
At the end of this unit, you should be able to:
• identify types of census
• explain what population census is
• describe various census methods
• explain census data capturing methods.
1.3 TYPES AND METHODS OF CENSUS
1.3.1 Definition of Census
23

124
The word "census" originated in ancient Rome from the Latin word
censere ("to
estimate"). Census played a crucial role in the administration of the
Roman Empire, as
it was used to determine taxes. It provided a register of citizens and their
property
from which their duties and privileges could be listed. It is said to have
been instituted
by the Roman king Servius Tullius in the 6th century BC. During the
Roman
Republic, the census was a list that kept track of all adult males fit for
military service.
The modern census is essential to international comparisons of any kind
of statistics;
and censuses collect data on many attributes of the population, not just
how many
people they are, although population estimates remain an important
function of the
census.
A census is the procedure of systematically acquiring and recording
information about
the members of a given population. It is a regularly occurring and
official count of a
particular population.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
Give a concise definition of census
1.3.2 Types of Census
Let us examine the various types of census.
Population Census
The term is used mostly in connection with national population and
housing censuses.
A census of population is the total process of collecting, compiling,
evaluating,
analysing and publishing demographic, economic and social data
pertaining, at a

125
specified time, to all persons in a country or in a well-delimited part of a
country.
Population censuses are taken at least every 10 years.
United Nations (1969), pointed out that ‘Population is basic to the
production and
distribution of material wealth. It is impossible to plan for, and carry
out, economic
and social development, administrative activity or scientific research
without precise
and detailed data on: the size, distribution and composition of
population’. The
population census is a primary source of these data.
Population censuses have been taken in Nigeria during colonial time in
1866, 1871,
1896, 1901, 1911, 1921 and 1952. The censuses covered only the
southern part of the
country except for the 1952 census which was country wide, and the
censuses before
1921 were based on administrative estimates rather than on an actual
enumeration.
Censuses during the independence were taken 1963, 1973, 1991 and
2006. The results
from 1973 and 2006 were highly disputed. The preliminary result for
2006 indicates a
population of 140 million people. Seven hundred thousand (700,000)
enumerators
were engaged in this operation.
24
Census of Housing
An especially close association exists between population censuses and
housing
censuses. The two censuses may comprise one statistical operation or
they may be two
separate but well-co-ordinated activities, but they should never be
considered

126
completely independently of each other because essential elements of
each census are
common to both. For example, an essential feature of a population
census is the
identification of each occupied set of living quarters and of the persons
living therein
and an essential feature of a housing census is the collection of
information on the
characteristics of each set of living quarters in association with the
number and
characteristics of its occupants.
In many countries, the population and housing censuses are taken
concurrently, often
with the use of a single schedule. In this way, the information on
population and living
quarters can be more readily matched, processing is facilitated and
extensive analysis
can be carried out. This also makes it possible to relate to the housing
census data the
information on demographic and economic characteristics of each
household member
which is routinely collected in the population census; if this information
cannot be
taken from the population census, it has to be collected in the housing
The advantages
of simultaneous investigation may be offset to some extent by the
additional burden on
the respondent and the enumerator resulting from the increased amount
of information
which must be collected at one time. In countries where this is likely to
be a serious
problem, consideration might be given to collecting data for a limited
number of topics
on the basis of a complete enumeration in the population and housing
census, with

127
more complex data in both fields being collected on a sample basis
only, either
concurrently with or immediately following the full enumeration.
Census of Agriculture
Population censuses and agricultural censuses do not have as close an
association as
that existing between population censuses and housing censuses because
they do not
have common essential aspects.
Although both the population census and the agricultural census can
provide
information on persons engaged in agriculture, they do not have a
common definition
of this group of persons. For the agricultural census, the group (referred
to as "persons
employed in agricultural work") consists of persons employed in farm
work or
planning necessary to the operation of an agricultural holding. Because
information on
these persons is always collected in relationship to a given holding,
persons working
on more than one holding during the census reference period may be
counted more
than once in the census. In a population census, information is obtained
on persons
principally engaged in the agricultural industry or at least on persons
engaged in an
agricultural occupation. Persons who worked on an agricultural holding
only
incidentally during the reference period might not be included in either
of these
categories. Precisely because of the differences in definition, however, it
may be
useful for a country to have both types of information 'for comparative‘
purposes.
25

128
In the preparation of an agricultural census, information from a recent
population
census can be utilised for demarcation of enumeration areas, the
preparation of the
frame for the census and the designing of the sample if a complete
agricultural
enumeration is not undertaken. In planning for a population census,
consideration
might be given to the possibility of collecting some agricultural
information which
would facilitate the preparation of a subsequent agricultural census.
If it is desired to collect information in an agricultural census on some
demographic or
social characteristics of persons employed in agricultural work or of the
farm
population, it would be useful to employ the same definitions and
classifications of
such characteristics as used in the population census, in order to permit
as high a
degree of comparability as possible between the results of the two
censuses. In some
cases, the utilisation of supplementary sample surveys in connection
with either
census may serve to provide the information desired on the relationship
between the
characteristics of the population of holdings and the characteristics of
the holdings.
Census of Establishments
Although the collection of information on industrial and commercial
establishments is
not a part of the population census, some of the information which is
collected
regarding economic characteristics of individuals can be used for
preparing listings of
the proprietors of such establishments and/or of the establishments
themselves.

129
Experience shows that these listings can be used in a subsequent census
of
establishments or for supplementing the registers of establishments
which are
maintained by most countries and utilised in their establishment
censuses. Since most
of the registers cover at least all establishments in which more than a
minimum of
persons (e.g., 5 or 10) are employed, it is usually only necessary to
obtain information
through the population census on smaller establishments, particularly
those operated
by self-employed persons. The population census information needed
for these
purposes is the industry and status (as employer, employee, own-
account worker etc.)
of economically active persons, the name and address of their
establishments (if any)
and (for employers) the number of employees. If all of this information
appears on the
census questionnaire, the data for the small employers and own-account
workers can
be extracted from the schedule or from the processing documents after
the
enumeration. If only industry and status appear on the schedule, the
remaining
information may be obtained from the desired group at the time of the
population
census enumeration and entered on a separate schedule.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
List and explain any five types of census
1.3.3 Census Methods
We shall deliberate on census methods in terms of approaches and data
capture
methods.
26

130
The approaches include:
a. The traditional approach: The traditional approach comprises a
complex
operation of actively collecting information from individuals and
households on
a range of topics at a specified time, accompanied by the compilation,
evaluation, analysis and dissemination of demographic, economic, and
social
data pertaining to a country or a well-delimited part of the country.
Members of
the public respond to a census questionnaire, or interviewers are
deployed to
collect information from respondents. The traditional census has
unrivalled
merit in providing a snapshot of the entire population at a specified
period and
the availability of data for small geographic domains. In that sense, the
traditional census is perhaps unique in nature. This approach is
particularly
suitable for countries having a federal structure and having the
requirement of
producing population numbers by various social and economic
characteristics
simultaneously for all geographical levels to meet the needs of planning
and the
allocation of funds (UN, 2007).
b. The register-based approach: The philosophy underlying this
concept is to
take advantage of the existing administrative sources, namely, different
kinds
of registers, of which the following are of primary importance:
households,
dwellings and individuals. One of the essential preconditions of this
approach
is that the country should have an established central population of
continuous

131
updating. In the case of local registers, continuous updating along with
communication between the register systems must be good. The primary
advantages of a register approach are reduced cost for the census
process and
greater frequency of data. However, establishing and conducting
administrative
registers involve higher costs than the census alone may justify.
c. The rolling census approach: A ‘rolling census’ represents an
alternative to the
traditional model of the census by means of a continuous cumulative
survey
covering the whole country over a long period of time (generally years),
rather
than a particular day or short period of enumeration. The two main
parameters of
a rolling census are the length of the period of enumeration (which is
linked to
the frequency of updates required) and the sampling rate (which
depends on the
available budget and the geographic levels required for dissemination
purposes).
Implementation of such an approach requires highly complex sampling
and
modelling techniques; a high quality sampling frame in order to allow
sampling
at very low levels of geography (a master address file updated annually
is
indispensable); and successful consultation about the approach with
major
stakeholders, including national and local governments and the user
community.
The main advantage of this approach is the higher frequency for
updating data: a
traditional census provides an update every five or10 years, whereas a
rolling
census provides annual updates.

132
d. Traditional enumeration with yearly updates of characteristics:
This design
is a variation on the traditional census design and focuses on counting
the
population and collecting only the basic demographic data in the census
year. A
27
very large household survey collects and tabulates detailed
demographic, social,
economic, and housing data every year throughout the decade, replacing
a
census year long form to collect these detailed data from a sample of the
population. The primary impetus for this approach is twofold: to
provide more
frequent and relevant data on the population than are available when a
census is
conducted only once a decade and to reduce the operational risks
associated with
the census.
The United Nations (2009) outlined a variety of methods of capturing
data for national
census projects. All of the main methods have been used in one form or
another and in
some cases, multiple methods have been implemented to complement
each other. All
methods have been used successfully in the commercial environment
and all have
their own unique technical challenges when being adopted for use in
census.
National Population Commissions (NPC) or National Statistical Offices
(NSO‘s) that
have no experience in these methods should take heart that other NSO‘s
have been in
their position before and thus lessons learnt from those experiences may
make any
technology transition easier. These data capture methods include:

133
• Manual Entry From paper – Operators type in responses they see on
the
physical census form into the computer system. Key from image –
Operators
type in responses they see on an image of the scanned census form
presented to
them on a computer screen.
• Optical Mark Reading (OMR) – Using special scanners, data is
automatically
extracted from the census form at the point of being scanned by the
recognition
of marks (such as tick boxes or multiple choice lozenges) in specific
locations
on the form.
• Intelligent Character Recognition (ICR) – Software is used that
attempts to
recognise handwritten text on each census forms scanned image.
• Personal Digital Assistant (PDA) – A digital handheld device is used
to log and
record census information by an enumerator (alternatives are Pocket or
Portable
PC‘s).
• Telephone and Internet – Remote capture of data either by automated
telephone
interviews or entry of data via a dedicated, secure website.
The method/s choices above may be restricted or determined by the
logistics of the
census project, for example, if the NPC is planning to undertake self-
enumeration by
undertaking a mail-out of census forms for the public to complete, then
choice of PDA
is not a viable option. (PDAs could be used for follow-up of non-
respondents, using
interviewing staff).
The workflow typically used when paper based data capture is used
varies depending

134
upon the method selected.
Manual Entry
This section gives an overview of the two main methods for NSO‘s to
manually enter
the census forms data into their computer systems. They both require
large numbers of
staffing and associated computer infrastructure.
28
a) From Paper
This is by far the solution that requires the least amount of technical
knowledge and
implementation and requires an operator to key data area network
infrastructure is
available, installed systems can be easily replicated and connected to
create a decentralised
configuration if required by the NPC.
During the data capture phase, each completed census form has its
response codes
manually entered into one of the networked computers by an operator.
Typically, each
operator processes one entire census form at a time and when finished
entering,
responses for that form physically moves it to the completed file and
picks up the next
physical form to process. This method is also used to process textual
responses into
classification categories.
Advantages
• Method requires simple software systems and low-end computing
hardware.
• Low cost (depending on the costs of local skilled manpower).
• There will be a large number of workstation computers available for
other
uses after the census is completed.
Disadvantages

135
• Requires very large numbers of staff, both PC operators and
managers.
Standardisation of operations is difficult as performance may be
individually
dependant.
• Staff needs to be kept motivated due to repetitive nature of their work.
• Physical space to house PC operators and all of the associated
requirements.
• Only data in the computer system will exist after being processed.
b) Key from Image (KFI)
This method involves initially scanning the completed census forms
using an industry
standard document scanner that captures each form‘s image. These
images are then
sent in turn to computer screens for operators to select the appropriate
corresponding
response.
Each operator can be assessed accordingly, increasing the potential
accuracy of the
process. Scanning of the completed census forms is typically undertaken
using a batch
control process. For example all the forms that are returned from a
specific
Enumeration Area (EA) are scanned and all images produced are
electronically tagged
with the EA code they relate to. Access should be restricted to the
images captured as
deemed appropriate by any confidentiality/anonymity policy of the
NPC.
29
Advantages
• There will be a large number of workstation computers available for
other uses
after the census is completed.
• A digital image archive of all completed census forms is created
automatically

136
from the scanning process. The paper forms can be removed for long
term
storage or disposed of if appropriate.
• It has been reported that an increased speed from operators can be
achieved
(compared with manual entry from paper) of between 20% - 40% less
time as
they do not need to move physical forms around.
Disadvantages
• The keying process cannot be undertaken until forms have been
scanned.
• There is a need for a relatively sophisticated workflow to be put in
place in
order to manage the keying process and smooth flow of images.
• Large numbers of staff required and extra costs associated with the
technical
infrastructure needed (Hardware and Software).
• Finding a suitable use for the document scanners after the processing
has been
completed.
Optical Scanning
This section gives an overview of the two main methods (OMR and
ICR) for NSO‘s
considering using optical scanning techniques to enter the census forms
data into their
computer systems. They both require sophisticated software
applications and
associated computer infrastructure.
Optical Mark Recognition (OMR) is the term associated with
recognising tick
box/multiple choice data. Optical Character Recognition (OCR) is the
term associated
with the recognition of machine printed characters, like printed text and
as such has a
limited application in census projects.

137
Intelligent Character Recognition (ICR) is the term associated with
recognition of
hand written data. Barcode recognition can also be achieved with optical
scanning
methods and may prove very useful in the processing of census forms if
they are
required to be uniquely identified.
Both of the main methods are well proven with OMR being used for
around 40 years
and ICR for approximately 20 years. Both technology methods are used
successfully
today in lots of large volume paper based data capture projects other
than census and
each have their own set of advantages and disadvantages.
For the successful implementation and use of these methods, staff will
be required
with the necessary IT skills that are familiar with databases, software
configuration/support for set-up, management and maintenance of such
deployments.
30
It should be noted that the resultant quality of data output for any paper
based method
chosen will be heavily dependent upon how well the enumerators
complete the forms
and the condition that they arrive at the processing centre. Processing of
bad forms
will be slow and inaccuracies are more likely. Therefore, the most
important factors
for timely and accurate data capture is to make sure the forms are filled
in correctly
and are returned in good condition. This means form design and training
of the
enumerators are both significant factors to consider spending time and
effort on to
reduce the associated risks as any data capture processes chosen cannot
make bad

138
forms good.
There are international standards (ISO) that printing companies can
conform to, giving
a greater consistency of output of their product by having detailed and
defined internal
procedures. Selection of such suppliers of large volumes of printed
forms may be
worthwhile considering to this end. It is advantageous to try and limit
the
questionnaires to a single page form that can be scanned without being
split into two
or more parts.
Optical Mark Recognition (OMR)
OMR is a form-_#______ *____+ ___%_() ___#&
(_1 __)__ %________ _%_ ____%_%___+
by a specially configured OMR scanner (using predefined rules and
tolerances to
gauge the significance of the marks made) and are automatically and
immediately
passed into a computer systems file or database without the use of a
keyboard. This is
achieved very fast and very accurately. OMR is the fastest method of
automated data
capture. OMR technology reads marked responses to questions on
specially designed
and printed paper. The design, print and cutting of the forms is
particularly important
to make sure that the scanner has the best possible chance of capturing
the intended
mark on the form. Therefore any handwritten responses on the form
must be manually
entered or coded using computer-assisted methods. This part of the
process should not
be underestimated and could require significant planning and resource.
Advantages
• Very accurate and very high speed processing can be achieved.

139
• Equipment is relatively inexpensive; simple to install and run.
• A well-established technology that‘s been used in many countries.
• If OMR scanner is used that has image capture ability then the digital
filing of
questionnaires resulting can be achieved, allowing for the storage and
retrieval
of questionnaires images for future use.
Disadvantages
• Requires specially printed and cut forms and scanners.
• Tick box responses are not suited to all types of questions.
• The forms are not easy to fill in for the public and usually need a
small amount
of training for enumerators to complete the form.
31
Intelligent Character Recognition (ICR)
ICR systems interpret hand written number and letter character
responses from
electronic images of forms scanned. ICR technology interprets
responses in predefined
specific locations on the form and transforms any responses into output
data for a
computer system to use. For census applications, their use should only
currently be
considered for interpreting characters that are not connected or joined
together
(Cursive).
Providers of ICR systems can offer solutions that will be able to
interpret most
commonly used scripts (Roman, Arabic, Cyrillic, etc.). This is based on
the ICR
engine that they use with their application software. All ICR
applications will require
the use of one or more ICR engines. This is the core software that will
try to recognise
each hand-written response. To improve the recognition process, many
systems will

140
enhance the image prior to passing it to the ICR engine. Typically ICR
engines will
expect to receive a bi-tonal image i.e. pure black and white - like a fax
image, for
processing. Enhancements will improve the engines‘ ability to recognise
characters
correctly.
ICR engine training – Most current ICR engines have been well trained
with various
language sets, and training of ICR engines is not commonly undertaken.
There will be
a limit to the capability of the chosen system due to the quality of
handwriting from
the enumerators. ICR solutions cannot make bad forms good. The
number of staff
required to verify and correct the data and to fill the gaps, should not be
underestimated.
To give the ICR the best chance at recognising the handwritten
characters
correctly, the NSO may consider training all enumerators on how to best
write
characters into the response areas on the form. This training can be
reinforced by the
addition of an example being printed onto every census form, assuming
there is room
to facilitate it.
Scanner maintenance should be planned and exercised regularly due to
build-up of dirt
and paper dust from the forms being scanned.
Advantages
• Form design is not as stringent as traditional OMR forms.
• Processing time can be reduced due to automated nature of the
process
compared to manual entry method.
• Allows for digital filing of questionnaires resulting in efficiency of
storage and

141
retrieval of questionnaires for future use.
• No specialist hardware required.
• Very high speed scanning can be achieved.
• Forms designed for ICR are relatively intuitive to complete. Locally
printed
forms can be used.
32
Disadvantages
• Comparatively higher costs of equipment (sophisticated
hardware/software
required).
• Significant hardware/software and trained IT staff will be required to
support
the system.
• Handwriting on census forms needs to be concise to avoid recognition
error.
• Possibility for error with character substitutions which would affect
data
quality.
Personal Digital Assistant (PDA)
The PDA (Fig. 9) is a small handheld electronic device which can
substitute the
traditional paper based enumeration. It allows for census data to be
captured and stored
electronically. The traditional census form is replaced by a series of
sequential
questions appearing on the PDA screen where the enumerator enters the
answer by
either selecting predefined responses or entering a variable. They are
typically used
with a stylus (a pen shaped device) to enter data via the devices‘ touch
screen
interface. It is acknowledged that technology is constantly evolving and
that PC
technology is becoming more portable but for the purposes of this
document, this

142
section will focus on the PDA. Many of the points discussed in this
section will also
apply to any portable PC technology being considered for
implementation. Data can
either be stored on the device locally in its memory and/or be
transmitted to a central
location if the appropriate communication infrastructure is present.
Locally stored data
can be transferred using the PDA download function via various ways,
including direct
attachment to host computer, transfer of data to memory stick/card,
device to device
transfer, etc.
PDA devices have a number of technical options that can aid the
enumerator and
census process. They have the ability to make telephone calls (if within
the network
coverage area) and transmit data, although consideration should be
given to data
security. Enumeration Area (EA) maps and/or address information can
also be loaded
onto the device and even aerial or satellite photos to help the enumerator
find the
correct housing units to visit. If the PDA has integrated GPS, tracking
could be
undertaken to assist the enumerator in understanding their current
location and also
capture the geographical location of where the census data was
captured.
All of the technical features discussed here require the devices to be pre-
programmed
in some way and for a large number of these devices this exercise
should not be
underestimated. Power consumption and the practicalities of charging
the device

143
should be tested and checked as failure in the field would also cause
support issues.
33
Fig. 9: PDA Device (used for data collection)
Source: United Nations (2009
Advantages
• Instant data capturing at the point of collection, reducing manual
input errors.
• Immediate data validation, reducing re-verifications at later stage.
• Time effective with real time logical validation rules, reducing logical
errors.
• Faster processing of census information leading to timely availability
of results.
• Additional functionalities can be included such as GPS, camera,
Bluetooth, etc.
Disadvantages
• Setting up of process may take a long time as it requires extensive
testing.
• Requires that enumerators have ability to use the device and therefore
requires
intensive training of enumerators.
• Need to recharge the battery which could run out during enumeration.
• Possibility of equipment failure.
• Expensive capital equipment costs with limited high volume use after
the
census exercise.
• Loss of devices (not returned).
Computer- Aided Telephone Interviews (CATI) and Internet
The use of the Internet and Computer Aided Telephone Interviews
(CATI) for census
data collection is growing. However, the methods are always
complementary to other
more established methods. From the experience of countries that have
undertaken this
method, it is deemed essential that there are adequate levels of literacy
for selfenumeration
144
to take place in an Internet census option.
34
CATI is a method whereby the housing unit is contacted on the
telephone by an
interviewer who follows an on-screen script on a computer or completes
an internet
form on behalf of the housing unit. The computer may also be used to
call the
telephone number of the housing unit if an appropriate list is available
and loaded into
the system. Confirmation may be required from whoever answers the
telephone at the
housing unit before data is collected.
Advantages
• Reduced resources necessary for form handling and data capture.
• For CATI, there is a better opportunity to enumerate difficulties to
reach
population groups.
• Automatic filtering of irrelevant questions.
• Better quality data due to in-built interactive verification mechanism.
• Faster availability of census results through simplified data entry and
editing.
• The running costs are significantly cheaper than paper based methods
Disadvantages
• Requires that respondents have a computer with Internet access or
telephone.
• Management of responses can be problematic, e.g., that households
have
responded once and only once, and that the actual householder has
completed it
(security).
• Need to build parallel processing system as not everyone will use the
Internet
or telephone.
• Requires mechanism to check for omitted and duplicate submissions.

145
• Is costly and requires a lot of resources for setting up and adequately
testing the
system.
Method Selection Considerations
The choice of which data capture method to use is likely to be
dependent on national
circumstances. As such, the choice of method should be part of the
overall strategic
objective of the census in terms of timeliness, accuracy and cost.
Maintaining the
integrity of the system and confidentiality of the data will also be key in
the decision
making process. The choice of which processing system and technology
to use for the
census data capture needs to be established early in the census cycle so
that enough
time is available to effectively test and implement it.
In choosing a paper based data capture method, the design and paper
quality of census
forms should be linked to the method of data capture. This will aid the
data capture
process when the forms are returned for processing. When imaging
technology is to be
used, adequate training of enumerators on how to properly fill in the
forms is crucial.
35
Considering the population to be enumerated may also assist in the
decision making
process, especially if Internet or telephone systems are to be thought of.
Also how the
data would be collected from special populations such as the
hospitalised, prisoners,
temporary visitors and nationals travelling abroad.
The skills of the enumerators should be considered as they are a key
stakeholder group
that will have an overall impact on how well data is finally captured.

146
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
Name the instrument in figure 9 and explain how it is used in capturing
census data
1.4 CONCLUSION
The various types of census are associated and information from one
could be used in
another. The choice of census method depends on the need and
resources available at
any given time.
It is evident there is not just one preferable set of data capture
technology for any
national census exercise. The challenges faced by a National Statistics
Office when
planning which data capture method to implement in their national
census project
varies depending upon a number of factors and external influences
including, but not
limited to: Budget and current funding situation; Project time frame;
Political
requirements; Availability of local technical skill set; Previous data
capture method
employed; Regional trends; Expectations of output data quality.
1.5 SUMMARY
In this unit, we defined census as: the procedure of systematically
acquiring and
recording information about the members of a given population. We
examined the
types of census: population, housing, agriculture, and establishment;
and also
deliberated on the census methods which include: the traditional
approach, the
register-based approach, the rolling census approach, traditional
enumeration with
yearly updates of characteristics. We studied the various census data
capture methods,

147
and learnt that a number of factors should be considered when choosing
data capture
method/s to employ as it may not be appropriate just to use the most
‘cutting edge’
technology. Proven technology also has a big part to play. Anything that
previously
worked well should not be disregarded without investigation into the
impact any
alternative may have.
1.6 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT
i. Identify four (4) types of census and briefly explain two (2).
ii. State: a) Four (4) census methods. b) Six (6) census data capturing
methods.
36
1.7 REFERENCES/FURTHER READING
Census: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Census–Retrieved on 28/08/2012.
United Nations (2007). ST/ESA/STAT/SER.M/67/Rev.2. Principles and
Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses Revision 2.
Statistical Papers, Series M. No. 67/Rev.2. New York: United Nations
Secretariat. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Statistics
Division.
United Nations (2009).Census Data Capture Methodology: Technical
Report. New
York. United Nations Secretariat. Department of Economic and Social
Affairs, Statistics Division.
1.8 POSSIBLE ANSWERS TO SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
• Definition of census
The procedure of systematically acquiring and recording information
about the
members of a given population. It is a regularly occurring and official
count of
a particular population.
• Types of census
Population census
Housing census
Census agriculture

148
Census of establishments
• The instrument on Figure 9 is a Personal Digital Assistant (PDA).
PDA devices have a number of technical options that can aid the
enumerator
and census process. They have the ability to make telephone calls (if
within the
network coverage area) and transmit data, although consideration
should be
given to data security. Enumeration Area (EA) maps and/or address
information can also be loaded onto the device and even aerial or
satellite
photos to help the enumerator find the correct housing units to visit. If
the PDA
has integrated GPS, tracking could be undertaken to assist the
enumerator in
understanding their current location and also capture the geographical
location
of where the census data was captured.
37
UNIT 2 CENSUS PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICE
CONTENTS
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Objectives
2.3 Main Content
2.3.1 Principles of Census
2.3.2 The Procedure for Census
2.4 Conclusion
2.5 Summary
2.6 Tutor-Marked Assignment
2.7 References/Further Reading
2.8 Possible Answers to Self-Assessment Exercise
2.1 INTRODUCTION
In this unit, we shall focus on the principles of census, and study the
procedure for
population census.
2.2 OBJECTIVES

149
At the end of this unit, you should be able to:
• identify the essential features of a population census
• explain the principles of census
• describe the procedure for population census.
2.3 CENSUS PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICE
2.3.1 Principles of Census
The essential features of a population census are individual
enumeration, universality
within a defined territory, simultaneity and defined periodicity.
Individual Enumeration
A "census" implies that each individual is enumerated separately and
that
characteristics of each person in the total population, or in a
representative sample of
the total population, are separately recorded. Only by this procedure can
the data on
the various characteristics of an individual (e.g., age, literacy,
occupation) be crossclassified.
A procedure of "group enumeration" is not a census in the strict sense of
the
term because the recording of aggregated or summarised information on
the
characteristics of a group of persons usually precludes the cross-
tabulation of data on
several characteristics. Even though a well-designed "group
enumeration" can produce
cross-classifications of certain individual characteristics, such as sex and
age, the
possibilities in this respect are so limited that the procedure is not
recommended for
38
general use, particularly since it tends to result in under-enumeration of
the population.
Individual enumeration does not preclude the use of sampling
techniques for obtaining

150
data on specified characteristics, provided that the sample design is
consistent with the
size of the areas for which the data are to be tabulated and the degree of
detail in the
cross-tabulations to be made.
Universality within a Defined Territory
The census should cover a precisely defined territory (e.g., the entire
country or a
well-delimited part of it) and, depending upon the type of population
count required,
should include every person present and/or residing within its scope,
without omission
or duplication.
Simultaneity
Each person should be enumerated as nearly as possible in respect of the
same welldefined
point of time and the data collected refer to a well-defined reference
period.
The time-reference period need not, however, be identical for all of the
data collected.
For most of the data, it will be the day of the census; in some instances,
it may be a
period prior to the census.
Defined Periodicity
Censuses should be taken at regular intervals so that comparable
information is made
available in a fixed sequence. A series of censuses makes it possible to
appraise the
past, accurately describe the present, and estimate the future.
The census data of any country are of greater value nationally,
regionally and
internationally if they can be compared with the results of censuses of
other countries
which were taken at approximately the same time. It is, therefore,
recommended that,

151
whenever possible, each country undertake a population census in the
years ending in
"0" or as near to those years as feasible. This is referred to as
International
Simultaneity.
It is obvious, however, that legal, administrative, financial and other
considerations
often make it inadvisable for a country to adhere to a standard
international pattern in
the timing of its population censuses. In fixing a census date, therefore,
such national
factors should be given greater weight than the desirability of
international
simultaneity.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
State the essential features of census principles
39
2.3.2 The Procedure for Census
The United Nations (1969, 2007) provided a guideline on the
organisation and
administration of a population census.
According to the UN statistics division, the population census is one of
the most
extensive and complicated statistical operations, consisting of a
complex series of
closely inter-related steps which must be carefully planned in advance
so that a proper
and uninterrupted sequence of operations can be maintained. A small
oversight in
planning may lead to serious defects and inefficiencies. Careful
planning of the census
is, therefore, of the first importance to the successful conduct of the
operation, not only
in countries with comparatively little statistical experience but also in
countries with a
developed system of statistics.

152
Censuses cannot all follow a uniform pattern but there are certain
common major
elements which must be taken into account in all censuses. In general,
census
operations can be divided into seven sequential phases: (a) preparatory
work, (b)
enumeration, (c) data processing, (d) evaluation of the results, (e)
analysis of the
results, (f) dissemination of the results and (g) systematic recording of
census
experience. It will be readily apparent that these phases are not entirely
chronologically separate or mutually exclusive. For example, a post-
enumeration
check may be undertaken simultaneously with the tabulation of the
results of the
regular enumeration. Furthermore, certain elements which are discussed
under
"Preparatory work", such as the budget and staff, may have to be
amended according
to circumstances which arise at a later stage of operation. In addition,
the systematic
recording of census experience should start with the beginning of the
preparatory work
and continue through all the subsequent phases. The elements of each of
the phases,
which are briefly discussed below, are intended, therefore, only as
indicators of the
points to be considered in planning and executing a census.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE?
Give an outline of census procedure
A. Preparatory Work
Legal basis for a census
Legal authority for the census is required for fixing primary
administrative
responsibility, for obtaining the necessary funds, for determining the
general scope and

153
timing of the census and for placing a legal obligation upon the public
to co-operate
and to give truthful answers and a legal obligation upon the enumerator
to record the
responses faithfully.
Budget and cost control
No universal system of census budgeting and cost control can be
suggested since
financial practices vary greatly among countries. However, a few
generally accepted
40
principles can be noted. Effective planning and control of the various
census
operations is not possible without a very careful financial estimate of
the cost of each
census operation. No part of the census work is too small to be clearly
recognised as a
component of the total cost. It is important that persons at the
administrative and
supervisory levels who will be responsible for the execution of each
operation
participate in estimating the budget items. Such an organisation of the
work
presupposes detailed advance planning and "cost-consciousness" on the
part of those
responsible for a census.
Census calendar
An indispensable aid in the planning of a census is a calendar or time-
table indicating
the sequence and estimated duration of each of the component
operations of the
census. At the early stages of census planning, it is important to prepare
a provisional
calendar, which should be revised and made final as early as practicable.
Such

154
calendars are essential, since they indicate the dates on which each of
the numerous
operations which make up a census are to be started and completed, and
they serve as
a guide for measuring the progress of each stage of the census
operation. Serious
delays in work, on errors in time estimates, can be detected by
comparing the calendar
target dates with the actual dates of each operation. Obviously, the time
schedule will
differ for each national census depending upon the general census plan
and the
resources that are available. Census calendars sometimes take the form
of a chart or
graph, in addition to a detailed check list of operations.
The census calendar usually shows the various operations grouped into
three broad
sectors: (a) pre-enumeration, (b) enumeration and (c) post-enumeration.
For purposes
of control, many operations which in fact overlap are shown separately
in the
calendar.
Administrative organisation
In planning the organisation and administration of a census, it is
important to consider
the role and relationship of the various executive and advisory organs.
National, sub
national and local commissions and committees frequently may be
useful in the
planning and preparation of a census. Such bodies may be composed of
representatives of governmental agencies and of non-governmental
users of the census
data. It is, however, important that their promotional and advisory
functions be well
defined and that the final responsibility for planning rests with the
executive agency.

155
Cartographic (mapping) work
The determination, for the purpose of the census, of the national and
internal
boundaries of the territory and its detailed subdivision into enumeration
areas is one of
the basic and most important census operations and generally takes a
considerable part
of the time and effort invested in the pre-enumeration stage. As a
supplementary
method of identifying small areas, a systematic, complete and up-to-
date listing of
localities may be used.
41
In recent years, many countries have adopted the use of Geographic
Information
Systems (GIS) to facilitate census mapping in the production of both
enumeration
maps and dissemination products. As the cost is declining and the basic
technology is
now well established, it is expected that this will continue. It is likely
that the census
could be a useful catalyst for increasing capacity within the statistical
office (or the
country as a whole).
Tabulation programme
In most censuses, the tabulation programme represents a compromise
between the
information that it would be ideally desirable to tabulate and the limits
imposed by
practical circumstances. It is essential that the programme be outlined
sufficiently
early so that the procedures and costs involved may be investigated
thoroughly before
a final decision is reached. The testing of questionnaires will help to
indicate if it will
be reasonably possible to gather the material desired for tabulation.

156
Questionnaire preparation
The type of questionnaire, its format and the exact wording and
arrangement of the
questions merit the most careful consideration, since the handicaps of a
poorly
designed questionnaire cannot be overcome during or after enumeration.
Among the
many factors which should be taken into account in designing the
questionnaire are the
method of enumeration, the type of questionnaire, data to be collected,
the most
suitable form of the questions and their arrangement and the processing
techniques to
be employed.
Census tests
The testing of various aspects of a census plan prior to the enumeration
is a very useful
practice for all countries.
Plan of enumeration
The complete enumeration plan should be prepared well before the
enumeration
begins. This involves (a) the determination of the enumeration method
to be used and
the basic procedures to be followed in the collection of the data and the
control of the
enumeration, (b) the procedures for the control of the quality of the data
and (c) an
estimation of the probable size of the population to be enumerated, so
that the number
of questionnaires and other materials required for the enumeration and
the number of
enumerators and supervisors needed can be properly ascertained.
Plans for data processing
The plans for the processing of the data should be completed before the
enumeration

157
begins so that processing can start immediately upon receipt of the
completed
questionnaires. The decision on the type of processing to be used must
be made early
in the planning stage, both because of its effect on the design of the
questionnaire and
42
because machine processing requires a long lead time for acquisition of
machines,
training of personnel and programming the operation. This is
particularly important if
electronic data processing is to be used.
Publicity
Arranging the publicity for the census is another of the important tasks
in the preenumeration
stage and entails an educational campaign, the purpose of which is to
enlist the interest and co-operation of the public.
Staff recruitment and training
Early and adequate arrangements are necessary to secure the proper
number and type
of personnel required for each of the various census operations.
It is important to note that any chosen data capture method will be
directly impacted
by the quality, quantity and timing of training given to enumerators. If
data collected
in the field is inaccurate or incomplete, no data capture method will be
able to correct
this. It is therefore critical that the appropriate resources, funding and
time is given by
census planners to this part of the overall census plan.
B. Enumeration
Method of enumeration
There are two major methods of enumeration. In the canvasser (or
enumerator)
method, information for each individual is collected and entered on the
questionnaire

158
by a census official designated to perform this operation in a specified
area. In the
householder method, the major responsibility for entering the
information is given to a
person in the unit being enumerated - usually the head of the household
although the
questionnaire is usually distributed, collected and checked by a census
official.
Also, there is need for residence definition. Normally the census
response is made by a
household, indicating details of individuals‘ resident there. An
important aspect of
census enumerations is determining which individuals can be counted
from which
cannot be counted. Broadly, three definitions can be used: de facto
residence; de jure
residence; and, permanent residence. This is important to consider
individuals who
have multiple or temporary addresses. Every person should be identified
uniquely as
resident in one place but where they happen to be on census day, their
de facto
residence, may not be the best place to count them. Where an individual
uses services
may be more useful and this is at their usual, or de jure, residence. An
individual may
be represented at a permanent address, perhaps a family home for
students or long
term migrants. Counting individuals at their legal residence without
regard to whether
or not they are physically present at the time of the census produces
factual figure, but
may be very expensive. On the other hand, counting individuals
wherever they
actually are on the day of census is easier and economic.
43

159
It is necessary to have a precise definition of residence to decide
whether visitors to a
country should be included in the population count.
Period of enumeration
In the interest of simultaneity and to avoid double counting or
omissions, it is
important to keep the period of enumeration as brief as possible,
consonant with
careful work and budgetary and staff resources.
Supervision
Adequate supervision of the enumeration is essential.
Use of sampling in the enumeration
Sampling may be employed in the enumeration for collecting
information on any
topics which need not be tabulated for small areas.
C. Data Processing
No matter how thorough and accurate the census enumeration is, the
census
tabulations will not be accurate and useful unless the raw data are
properly
processed.
Method of processing
The choice of an appropriate method of processing is determined by the
circumstances
of each country.
Processing control
Regardless of the processing method used, careful planning and control
are required to
ensure an uninterrupted flow of work through the various stages from
receipt of the
census questionnaires through the preparation of the final tabulations.
Advance and final tabulations
Because of the urgent need for information on some census topics and
the length of
time required for final tabulation of census results, consideration should
be given to

160
the preparation of advance tabulations of selected topics. These are
usually based on a
small sample of the raw data and may be issued as provisional results.
D. Analysis of the Results
Analytical studies of the census results should be undertaken by, or
under the direction
of, the office responsible for the census.
44
E. Dissemination of the Results
A census is not complete until the information collected is made
available to potential
users in a form suited to their needs. It is important, therefore, that plans
be made and
sufficient funds allocated to ensure publication of the tabulations of
widespread
interest. The final tabulations should be presented and explained in a
way which will
make them usable by as many persons as possible. Not all of the
processed materials
need to be published. Every effort should be made to publish the
principal results
(such as those on age, sex and geographic distribution of the population)
as soon as
possible after the date of the enumeration; otherwise, their usefulness
and the extent of
their interest to the public will diminished
F. Evaluation of the Results
Good census practice requires a careful consideration and evaluation of
the
completeness and accuracy of the census results.
G. Systematic Recording of Census Experience
Also, there is need for systematic recording of census: the cumulative
experience of
past censuses in a country can be of great help in the preparation of a
new census.

161
Because of the lapse of time between censuses and the likelihood of
changes in upperechelon
personnel even in a permanent census office, it is most useful to
assemble
complete records on the methodology of each census, an evaluation of
the techniques
employed and the costs. These records should be arranged in such a way
that
information on each aspect of the census operation can be found easily.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
Mention the 7 phases (A-G) of census procedure
2.4 CONCLUSION
Careful planning of the census is of the first importance to the
successful conduct of
the operation, there should be definition of residence, enumeration
strategies,
appropriate technology, and privacy.
2.5 SUMMARY
In this unit, we have studied the principles of census. We learnt about
the essential
features of a population census which are: individual enumeration,
universality within
a defined territory, simultaneity and defined periodicity. We concluded
the unit by
looking at the guideline on the organisation and administration of a
population census.
45
2.6 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT
i. Write notes on: a. Simultaneity. b) Defined periodicity.
ii. State any five steps in population census procedure, and briefly
explain one.
2.7 REFERENCES/FURTHER READING
United Nations (1969). Principles and Recommendations for the 1970
Population
Censuses. Statistical Papers, Series M, No.44. New York: United
Nations

162
Secretariat. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Statistics
Division.
United Nations (2007). ST/ESA/STAT/SER.M/67/Rev.2. Principles and
Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses Revision 2.
Statistical Papers, Series M. No. 67/Rev.2. New York: United Nations
Secretariat. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Statistics
Division.
2.8 POSSIBLE ANSWERS TO SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
• Essential features of census principles
The essential features of a population census are individual
enumeration,
universality within a defined territory, simultaneity and defined
periodicity.
• General census procedure
In general, census operations can be divided into seven sequential
phases: (a)
preparatory work, (b) enumeration, (c) data processing, (d) evaluation of
the
results, (e) analysis of the results, (f) dissemination of the results and (g)
systematic recording of census experience.
46
UNIT 3 APPLICATION OF CENSUS DATA
CONTENTS
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Objectives
3.3 Main Content
3.3.1 Significance of Census Data
3.3.2 Census Data Relevant for Planning
3.3.3 Application (Uses) of Census Data
3.4 Conclusion
3.5 Summary
3.6 Tutor-Marked Assignment
3.7 References/Further Reading
3.8 Possible Answers to Self-Assessment Exercise
3.1 INTRODUCTION

163
In the last two units we studied the various types and methods of
census; as well as the
essential features of and procedure for carrying out population censuses.
In this unit,
we shall deliberate on what could be done with the information obtained
from census.
3.2 OBJECTIVES
At the end of this unit, you should be able to:
• explain the significance of census data
• identify census data relevant for planning
• discuss the application/uses of census data.
3.3 APPLICATION OF CENSUS DATA
3.3.1 Significance of Census Data
Every nation needs accurate population data to be able to plan for
necessary
development. It is of absolute importance for a government to
effectively plan for its
people, and prevent errors, in the development of education,
transportation, health,
agriculture, commerce and industry, defence and security, and in the
power and energy
sectors.
Failure to undertake an accurate census has very serious implications for
planning in
any country. There is therefore no substitute for an accurate headcount.
The purpose of a population census is primarily to satisfy certain
national needs for
statistical data; those needs are the major factors in determining the
content of the
census. Compiling this essential information is far from straightforward.
The conduct
47
of a census requires professional management, a very large number of
enumerators,
and the application of new technologies and skilled interpretation of the
results.

164
The population and housing census plays an essential role in public
administration.
The census also plays an essential role in all elements of the national
statistical
system, including the economic and social components. The basic
feature of the
census is to generate statistics on small areas and small population
groups with
no/minimum sampling errors. The census results are used as a
benchmark for research
and analysis. Population and housing censuses are principal means of
collecting basic
population and housing statistics as part of an integrated programme of
data collection
and compilation aimed at providing a comprehensive source of
statistical information
for economic and social development planning, for administrative
purposes, for
assessing conditions in human settlements, for research and for
commercial and other
uses. It is critically important to produce detailed statistics for small
areas and small
population groups as a building block for efficient governance at all
levels.
Population census data are used for: policymaking, planning and
administrative
purposes; for research purposes; business, industry and labour; electoral
boundary
delimitation; as a sampling frame for surveys.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
State the significance of census data
3.3.2 Census Data Relevant for Planning
According to NPC (2003), the main topics on which census provides
useful data are:
• Population size and spatial distribution of the population
• Age and sex structure of the population

165
• Household size, structure and composition
• Marital status
• Literacy and educational attainment
• Economic and employment characteristics
• Disability status
• Fertility
• Mortality
• Migration
• Urbanisation
• Growth rate and population projections.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
List areas where census data are useful for planning
3.3.3 Application (Uses) of Census Data
Census statistics often try to predict what will happen in the future,
which may help to
avoid or plan for potential problems. Demographers may study why
things happen and
48
what the consequences are, including the effects of population trends on
the
environment. Population data help determine how governments allocate
their funds
and where aid resources go. The analysed results are often used to
advocate for
disadvantaged groups of people by researchers and independent
organisations as well
as government agencies. They can help determine policies and decide
which town gets
a new health clinic or job creation resources. The fields of advertising
and economics
also use demography statistics to a large extent.
Population censuses are traditionally used for public and private sector
policymaking,
planning, and administrative and research purposes. One of the most
basic of the

166
administrative uses of census data is in the demarcation of
constituencies and the
allocation of representation on governing bodies. Information on the
size, distribution
and characteristics of a country's population is essential to describing
and assessing its
economic, social and demographic circumstances and to developing
sound policies
and programmes aimed at fostering the welfare of a country and its
population. The
population and housing census, by providing comparable basic statistics
for a country
as a whole and for each administrative unit and locality therein, can
make an important
contribution to the overall planning process and the management of
national
development. The availability of information at the lowest levels of
administrative
units is valuable for the management and evaluation of such
programmes as education
and literacy, employment and human resources, reproductive health and
family
planning, housing and environment, maternal and child health, rural
development,
transportation and highway planning, urbanisation and welfare.
Population and
housing censuses are also unique sources of data for producing relevant
social
indicators to monitor the impact of these government policies and
programmes.
Census data give characteristics features of the population, and provide
data needed
to calculate statistical rates and planning of different community
programmes.
Specifically, Weeks (1998) outlined that census data are used for:

167
Planning in business (marketing, investment, and management
demographics) -
Making a profit in business requires, among other things, having an
edge over your
competitors. One of the most impressive (and profitable) ways in which
demographics are employed in business is for marketing. A good
example here is that
demographic data can help a company to segment and target
populations to buy their
product. Demographic data also help in making investment decisions.
To invest is to
put your money to use for the purpose of securing a gain in income.
Basically,
making sound investment decisions involves peering into the future,
forecasting
likely scenarios, and then acting on the basis of what seems likely to
happen.
Social planning (such as education, public services, and health
services) – Census
data are used to chart population movements and plan for social change.
Local
population estimates and projections allow planners to see the needs,
and decide what
to plan, who to plan for, and what location to plan for. The social
services planned are:
education, health, employment, public utilities like electricity, water
supply,
transportation, fire service, sanitation, etc.
49
Political planning (such as legislative analysis and campaign strategy)
– Census data
are used to determine how membership in the House of Representatives
is distributed,
and for campaign by politicians. Also, demographics underlie many of
the major

168
issues that confront national and state legislators and are used for
legislative analysis.
The census is also an important source of data on persons with
disabilities. Census
data help to monitor the social and living conditions of persons with
disabilities in
terms of school attendance, educational attainment, employment,
marital status and
living arrangements. The data also provide a basis for developing
policies to meet the
needs of persons with disabilities and for evaluating the effectiveness of
these policies
(UN, 2007).
Uses of a Population Census in an Integrated Programme of Data
Collection
As part of an integrated programme of data collection, the population
census is the
primary source of basic national population data required for
administrative purposes
and for many aspects of economic and social research and planning. The
value of the
census results is increased if they can be employed together with the
results of other
investigations, as in the use of the census data as a base or bench-mark
for current
statistics. The usefulness of the census is also enhanced if it can furnish
the
information needed for conducting other statistical investigations.
It can, for example, provide a statistical frame for other censuses and
sample surveys.
The purposes of a continuing programme of data collection can best be
served,
therefore, if the relationship between the population census and other
statistical
investigations is considered when

169
census planning is under way and if provision is made for facilitating
the use of the
census and its results in connection with intercensal sample surveys,
with continuous
population registers, with other types of censuses and with civil
registration and vital
statistics, and with labour force, educational and similar statistics. The
use of
consistent concepts and definitions throughout an integrated programme
of data
collection is essential if the advantages of these relationships are to be
fully realised.
Uses of census data for administrative and policy purposes
The original and fundamental purpose of the census is to provide the
facts essential to
governmental administration and policy. One of the most basic of the
administrative
uses of census data is in the demarcation of constituencies and the
allocation of
representation on governing bodies. Detailed information on the
geographic
distribution of the population is indispensable for this purpose. Certain
aspects of the
legal or administrative status of territorial divisions may also depend on
the size of
their populations.
50
Information on the geographic distribution of the population, its size
and its other
characteristics is essential to the study and evaluation of economic and
social
problems, which must precede the determination of policy affecting
economic and
social development.
Consideration of questions of employment and manpower programmes,
migration,

170
housing, education, public health and welfare, social services, economic
and social
planning, and numerous other aspects of the life of a country, are
facilitated if accurate
information about the characteristics of the population is available for
civil and other
administrative divisions.
Uses of census data for research purposes
In addition to specific administrative purposes, the population census
provides
indispensable data for the scientific analysis and appraisal of the
composition,
distribution and past and prospective growth of the population. The
changing patterns
of urban-rural concentration, the development of urbanised areas, the
geographic
distribution of the population according to such variables as occupation
and education,
the evolution of the sex and age structure of the population, and the
mortality and
natality differentials for various population groups, as well as the
economic and social
characteristics of the population and labour force, are questions of
scientific interest
which are of importance to both pure research and practical problems of
industrial and
commercial growth and management.
Uses of census data for business and industry
In addition to those given above, the census has many important uses
for individuals
and institutions in business and industry. Reliable estimates of consumer
demand for
an ever-expanding variety of goods and services depend on accurate
information on
the size of the population in sub national areas and its distribution at
least by age and

171
sex, since these characteristics heavily influence the demand for
housing, furnishings,
food, clothing, recreational facilities, medical supplies and so forth.
Furthermore, the
local availability of labour for the production and distribution of such
commodities
and services may be important in determining the location and
organisation of
enterprises.
Relationship of the population census to sample surveys
The rapidity of current changes in the size and other characteristics of
populations and
the demand for additional detailed data on social and economic
characteristics which
are not appropriate for collection in a full-scale census, have brought
about the need
for continuing programmes of intercensal sample surveys to collect
current and
detailed information on many topics which are usually investigated at
10 year intervals
in the population censuses.
The census can provide the frame for scientific sample design in
connection with such
surveys; at the same time, it provides bench-mark data for evaluating
the
51
reasonableness of the over-all survey results as well as a base against
which changes
in the characteristics investigated in both inquiries can be measured. To
permit
comparison of census and survey results, the definitions and
classifications employed
should be as nearly alike as possible consistent with the aims of each
investigation.
Relationship of the population census to continuous population
registers

172
Population censuses have been used in some countries as the starting
point for the
establishment of a continuous population register. If a register is already
in operation,
results of subsequent censuses can be compared with register data as a
check on the
accuracy of both. Information from each source can be transferred to the
other, as
required and appropriate, after investigation and resolution of
discrepancies.
Relationship of the population census to electoral rolls
Some countries have taken advantage of the enumeration for a
population census to
collect, at the same time, information needed for the establishment of
electoral rolls.
This procedure is not generally advisable because of the deleterious
effect the
secondary purpose might have on the quality of the census results. It
increases the
burden on the enumerator and it may tempt some respondents
deliberately to falsify
their replies to some census questions (e.g., on age or citizenship) in
order to appear
eligible for placement on the electoral roll.
Relationship of the population census to other types of censuses
Certain information collected as part of a population census, or
incidental to it, can be
most useful in conducting and/or utilising the results of housing,
agricultural or
establishment censuses taken at about the same time as the population
census.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
List areas of application of census data
3.4 CONCLUSION
Census data give characteristic features of the population; and provide
data needed for:

173
planning in business (marketing, investment, and management
demographics) as well
as planning for social purposes (such as education, public services, and
health
services) and political planning (such as legislative analysis and
campaign strategy).
3.5 SUMMARY
In this unit, we deliberated on the significance, relevance and
application of census
data, and you noted that: every nation needs accurate population data to
be able to plan
for necessary development. Failure to undertake an accurate census has
very serious
implications for planning in any country, and there is therefore no
substitute for an
accurate headcount.
52
We identified the main topics on which census provide useful data. You
learnt that
census statistics often try to predict what will happen in the future,
which may help to
avoid or plan for potential problems.
You further learnt that as part of an integrated programme of data
collection, the
population census is the primary source of basic national population
data required for
administrative purposes and for many aspects of economic and social
research and
planning.
3.6 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT
i. State ten (10) main areas which population census can provide useful
data.
ii. Briefly explain five (5) areas of application of census data.
3.7 REFERENCES/FURTHER READING
National Population Commission (2003). Data Needs for Sustainable
Development in

174
the 21st Century. Abuja: Nigeria: NPC.
United Nations (2007). ST/ESA/STAT/SER.M/67/Rev.2. Principles and
Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses Revision 2.
Statistical Papers, Series M. No. 67/Rev.2. New York: United Nations
Secretariat. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Statistics
Division.
Weeks, J. R. (1998). Population: An Introduction to Concepts and
Issues. (6th ed.).
Belmont: Wadsworth Publishing Company.
3.8 POSSIBLE ANSWERS TO SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
• Significance of census data
Population census data are used for: policymaking, planning and
administrative
purposes; for research purposes; business, industry and labour; electoral
boundary delimitation; as a sampling frame for surveys.
• Areas where census data are useful for planning
Population size and spatial distribution of the population
Age and sex structure of the population
Household size, structure and composition
Marital status, Literacy and educational attainment
Economic and employment characteristics
Disability status, Fertility and Mortality
Migration and Urbanisation
Growth rate and population projections.
• Areas of application of census data
Business planning
Social planning
Political planning
53
UNIT 4 POPULATION DATA AND THE PLANNING OF
SOCIAL
SERVICES
CONTENTS
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Objectives
4.3 Main Content

175
4.3.1 Population Data
4.3.2 Measurement of Social Problem
4.3.3 Population and Resources
4.3.4 Planning of Social Services
4.4 Conclusion
4.5 Summary
4.6 Tutor-Marked Assignment
4.7 References/Further Reading
4.8 Possible Answers to Self-Assessment Exercise
4.1 INTRODUCTION
In the previous unit, we learnt that census data give characteristic
features of the
population; and provide data needed for administrative purposes and for
many aspects
of economic and social research and planning. Here, we shall discuss
population data
and the planning of social services.
4.2 OBJECTIVES
At the end of this unit, you should be able to:
• identify the major sources of information on the population processes
• appreciate the need for, and assist in the, identification of population
problems,
using social indicators
• explain the relationship between population and resources
• participate in the planning of social services.
4.3 POPULATION DATA AND PLANNING OF SOCIAL
SERVICES
4.3.1 Population Data
Accurate population data is a vital ingredient of social and economic
policy.
Governments cannot deliver efficient services and infrastructure without
knowledge of
the national demographic profile – the size of the population, where
people live, how
old they are, and the net effect of births, deaths and migration. If we
want to unravel

176
the mystery of why things are the way they are and not just describe
how they are, we
have to know about the social, psychological, economic and even
physical
characteristics of the people being studied. We already know the sources
of basic
information about the number of living people, births, deaths and
migrants.
54
Population data for development planning can be obtained primarily
through- Vital
registration, Censuses, and Sample Surveys. In Nigeria, population data
may be
obtained from the National Population Commission (NPC); the
Ministries of Health,
Education, Women Affairs and Social Services; the Federal Office of
Statistics (FOS);
the National Manpower Board and the Ministry of Labour. Where
specific data of a
particular nature are required for planning but cannot be obtained from
these agencies,
special sample surveys may be undertaken by the NPC, the FOS and
Nongovernmental
Organisations (NGOs) to generate data.
In other words, the kind of information that we are looking for is often
broken down
into three categories: (i) Population size and distribution, (ii) Population
processes
(fertility, mortality, and migration), and (iii) Population structure and
characteristics.
The primary source of data on size and distribution, as well as on
structure and
characteristics, is the census of population. The major source of
information on the
three population processes is the registration of vital statistics. In
addition, these

177
sources are often supplemented with data from sample surveys as well
as historical
sources.
Odama (1995) amply enumerated the necessary data appropriate for
planning.
According to him, among the more important population data are: rate
of population
growth; estimate of fertility; estimate of mortality; projection of future
population;
estimate of current school age population; and projection of future
working-age
population.
Demographic data relevant for planning
The main topics on which demographic data should be presented for
planning are:
• Population size for the country and the component states and LGAs;
including
population density, and rural- urban distribution
• Age and sex structure of the population
• Household size, structure and composition
• Marital status
• Literacy and educational attainment
• Economic and employment characteristics
• Disability status
• Fertility
• Mortality
• Migration
• Urbanisation
• Growth rate and population projections.
Development objectives are the desired economic, social and
demographic outcomes
of development planning.
55
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
List the major areas where population data should be presented for
planning in
178
Nigeria
4.3.2 Measurement of Social Problem
It is widely recognised that the lack of reliable data in developing
countries is an
important obstacle to the effective management of health care and other
social
services. It is necessary to develop and improve information systems
which decision
makers and health care givers can use for planning, implementing and
evaluating
services.
Crucial to the use of population data in planning is the identification of
population
problems. Social problems in a community can be assessed by various
statistics which
point to serious social difficulties, and these are often referred to as
social indicators. It
is possible to measure the objective conditions known to be associated
with the
development of social difficulties and to show how such conditions
have contributed
to the problem. For instance, very poor housing conditions are known to
be associated
throughout the world with high levels of crime and social deprivation
(Davies, 1999).
The age structure of a population especially as regards the elderly can
have marked
effect on the social problems likely to be encountered.
In practice, the health of a whole community is assessed by collection,
analysis, and
interpretation of data about important events which serve as indicators
of the health of
the community, deaths (mortality data), sickness (morbidity data) and
data about the
utilisation of medical services.

179
Unless the social services provided in an area are being constantly
checked against
needs, it is very easy for them to become unbalanced (Fig. 10). It is,
therefore,
important that all field work staff become used to using and referring to
such data.
The collection and analysis of various social statistical data from
different areas will
enable a national picture to be built up.
56
Fig. 10: Inadequate Social Services
Source: Photographed by author
The sensitivity of development planners to population problems
determine to a large
extent, what population data are used in planning. Unlike economic
parameters,
demographic variables cannot be easily modified or influenced by ad-
hoc measures or
in a panic situation. The current reproductive behaviour of the
population, for
instance, will in time affect education expenditure, investment in
housing, health
requirements and employment situation. All these require long-term
planning based on
demographic data.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
List the basic social problems associated with population in Nigeria
4.3.3 Population and Resources
The relationship between population and resources could be studied
from various
viewpoints. Four of these viewpoints of common interest are: the
behavioural, the
ethical, the economic, and the ecological. The behavioural approach
examines the
behaviour of human beings in their use of resources. It recognises the
fact that people

180
use resources in different ways and hence relate this to socio-cultural
and
psychological characteristics of the people. The ethical perspective, as
the term
suggests, emphasises on how people should utilise resources. The
interest of the
economic perspective is the exploitation of resources to ensure the
satisfaction of
human needs. It is assumed that demand will always be matched by
supply and once
demand increases, resource exploitation has to be increased. The
ecological
perspective views a resource in terms of the interaction of man, the
biota and
environment. The relationship between population and resources may
be one of the
social equations, first understood by man (Ogunbameru, 2009).
57
There is no question about the fact that populations of organisms
fluctuate within more
or less definite limits, in space as well as in time. The rapid increase in
population has
been found to affect resources availability and the environment. The
stock of many
resources cannot be increased rapidly over time. Indeed, some resources
get exhausted
after some time. Therefore, it is necessary that a population does not
grow beyond the
limit that can be supported by available resources.
In many countries, migration is the predominant influence on the spatial
distribution of
the population. In the developing and newly industrialised world, recent
rural to urban
migration has resulted in the phenomenal growth of cities, often lacking
the

181
infrastructure to meet the needs of the expanding population for basic
services such as
sanitation and power. In the older developed world, by contrast,
urbanisation has been
succeeded by ‘counter-urbanisation’ involving migration from cities to
suburbs or
beyond. One result has been a growing concentration of those unable to
move (the old
and disadvantaged) in inner-city areas.
Population and Economic Progress
A population necessarily depends on its economy, whereas economic
development in
turn requires a population and is pursued to serve that population‘s
purposes.
Theoretically at least, the greater the population total, the more will be
its productivity.
On the other hand, the greater the population, the more it must produce.
Furthermore,
the more a population grows, the broader and deeper must be its
economic base. The
breadth and depth of the economic base are dependent in turn on the
resources that
nature has made immediately and potentially available. These have
tangible limits, and
the avoidance of their depletion depends on careful husbandry and
conservation to
allow for whatever natural regeneration and replenishment may be
possible.
To this point, the word population has been used in a loose and general
sense. It is
important to consider certain of its components. Each population
contains a proportion
of socially dependent non- producers; the young, the elderly, the infirm,
and the
unemployed. It must be recognised also that these groups are constant
consumers.

182
Indeed, at least two of the groups, the young and the infirm in many
societies such as
in the United States of America tend to consume proportionately more
of the products
and services of society than the rest. Obviously, therefore, the more
dependents there
are in a society, the larger must be the corps of producers. Any
circumstance that alters
the number and proportions of the various types of dependents and
producers affects
the economy. Similarly, any change in the extent or nature of the
economy tends to
affect the number and proportion of non- producers. The most obvious
effect is an
increase in unemployed persons. Usually close on the heels of
unemployment,
however, comes a decrease in the number of conceptions and births.
Excellent
examples of this sequence were provided by the economic recession and
a major steel
strike in the United States in the late 1950s. More recent has been some
apparent
demographic effects of the so- called ‘stagflation’ of 1974-1976. If a
lowered economy
should persist, financial inability to obtain adequate nutrition and
preventive and
therapeutic medical care as well as other necessities and amenities
results inevitably in
the increase in the number and proportion of individuals who become
acutely and
58
chronically ill. Finally, because of the interplay between these last two
effects, there
eventually occurs at least a temporary increase in the proportion of
dependent adults
and elderly persons (United Nations, 1953).

183
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
State the relationship between population and economic progress.
4.3.4 Planning of Social Services
Social services include: health services, water supply, communication
services, power
supply, education, sanitation services, social welfare services etc.
The essence of the concept of population growth is to give direction on
the future
trends of population dynamics. It is pertinent to develop interest in
keeping records on
demographic variables and statistics at urban and rural levels. Ofomata
(1976) in
Okoye et al. was optimistic that regional development planning could
be achieved in
the country, if enough geographic information system data are provided.
Population data or demographics are widely used to chart population
movements and
plan for social change. When such plans fail, as they often do in
developing countries,
the result is: confusion, negative reactions and even political upheaval.
To have a
good plan, there should be series of local area demographic estimates
and projections
– population data, already enumerated.
Local population estimates and projections allow planners to decide:
where new roads
need to be built; how much water need to be stored in local reservoirs
and the location
of these reservoirs; where new sewage pipes need to go and how big
they should be, if
that is to be used; how many Police officers and fire fighters need to be
recruited; how
many jobs must be created; how many schools, health facilities, and
other services
need to be established, what type and where should they be located.

184
Demographic information is very important in the education sector.
Public primary
and secondary schools, and even universities cannot be established and
run smoothly
without appropriate and adequate data. Odama (1995) stated that:
‘generally,
educational data are required in three forms: educational input such as-
school
enrolment; educational progression such as - school retention, and
scholastic
retardation and acceleration; and educational output such as- literacy
level,
educational attainment, and field specialisation. Hagemann et al. (1977)
in Weeks
(1998) warned that the consequences of failing to project public school
enrolment
accurately are clear. Underestimates may result in crowded classrooms,
shortage of
educational personnel, and outmoded facilities. The quality of education
suffers as a
result. On the other hand, overestimates may lead to underutilisation and
waste of
resources.
59
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
State some social services that require accurate population data for
planning
4.4 CONCLUSION
The rapid increase in population has been found to affect resources
availability and the
environment. Accurate population data is a vital ingredient of social and
economic
policy. Population data or demographics are widely used to chart
population
movements and plan for social change.
4.5 SUMMARY

185
In this unit, we examined the uses of population data in the planning of
social services
and learnt that: the major source of information on the three population
processes is
the registration of vital statistics which are often supplemented with data
from sample
surveys as well as historical sources.
You learnt that: the identification of population problems is crucial to
the use of
population data in planning. The relationship between population and
resources could
be studied from the behavioural, ethical, economic, and ecological
viewpoints.
Also, the more important population data necessary for planning are:
rate
of population growth; estimate of fertility; estimate of mortality;
projection of future population; estimate of current school age
population; and projection of future working-age population.
Population data or demographics are widely used to chart population
movements and plan for social change.
4.6 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT
i. Enumerate five (5) Organisations in Nigeria from where population
data could be
obtained.
ii. The relationship between population and resources could be studied
from various
viewpoints. Explain three (3) of these viewpoints of common interest.
v. What are social indicators?
60
4.7 REFERENCES/FURTHER READING
Aibor, M.S. & Olorunda, J. O. (2006). A Technical Handbook of
Environmental
Health in the 21st Century for Professionals and Students. Lagos,
Nigeria:
Divine Favour Publishers.

186
Davies M. & James B. (1999). Community Health, Preventive Medicine
and Social
Services. (4th ed.). Great Britain: Bailliere Tindall.
National Population Commission (2003). Addressing Data Needs for
Sustainable
Development in the 21st Century. Abuja, Nigeria: National Population
Commission (NPC).
Nnodu, V. C. Okoye, C. O. & Onwuka, S. U. (2008). Urban
Environmental
Problems in Nigeria. Nimo, Nigeria: Rex Charles & Patrick Limited.
Odama, J.S. (1995). ‘Population Data for National Development
Planning’. In:
Adegbola, O. (Ed.). Nigerian National Population Programme:
Retrospect &
Prospects.
United Nations (1953). The Determinants and Consequences of
Population Trends.
New York.
Weeks, J. R. (1998). Population: An Introduction to Concepts and
Issues. (6th ed.). Belmont: Wadsworth Publishing Company.
61
4.8 POSSIBLE ANSWERS TO SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
• Major areas for presenting population data for planning
Age and sex structure of the population
Household size, structure and composition
Marital status, Literacy and educational attainment
Economic and employment characteristics
Disability status, Fertility and Mortality
Migration, Urbanisation, growth rate and population projections
• Basic social problems associated with population in Nigeria
Inadequate social services
Environmental sanitation
Inadequate facilities
Morbidity and mortality
• Relationship between population and economic progress

187
A population depends on its economy, whereas economic development
in turn
requires a population and is pursued to serve that population‘s purposes.
The
greater the population, the more will be its productivity. On the other
hand, the
greater the population, the more it must produce. The more a population
grows,
the broader and deeper must be its economic base. The breadth and
depth of the
economic base are dependent in turn on the resources that nature has
made
immediately and potentially available.
• Social services that require accurate population data for planning
Health services, water supply, communication services, power supply,
education, sanitation services, social welfare services etc
62
MODULE 4 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND HEALTH
MANAGEMENT
Unit 1 Concept of Demographic Transition
Unit 2 Demographic Transitions and Disease Patterns
Unit 3 Demographic Transitions and Health Services
Unit 4 Indices of Population, Health and Development
UNIT 1 CONCEPT OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
CONTENTS
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Objectives
1.3 Main Content
1.3.1 Meaning of Demographic Transition
1.3.2 Phases of Demographic Transition
1.3.3 Demographic Transition: An Economic Explanation of Population
Dynamics
1.4 Conclusion
1.5 Summary
1.6 Tutor-Marked Assignment
1.7 References/Further Reading

188
1.8 Possible Answers to Self-Assessment Exercise
1.1 INTRODUCTION
Previously, under population composition, we learnt that the theory of
demographic
transition is an interpretation of historical changes in vital rates from
high to low rates
of mortality and fertility and the trends in population growth in the
process. The theory
postulates that economic development causes a decline in death rate,
which is followed
after a time lag by a fall in the birth rate to stabilise population growth.
Our focus in
this unit shall be on the concept of demographic transition.
1.2 OBJECTIVES
At the end of this unit, you should be able to:
• explain the meaning of demographic transition
• describe phases of demographic transition
• relate economic development to patterns of population
growth.
1.3 CONCEPT OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
1.3.1 Meaning of Demographic Transition
63
Demographic transition is the process whereby a country moves from
high birth and
high death rates to low birth and low death rates with an increase in
population
growth.
Demographic transition is a three –stage historical process of population
growth; first,
high birth rates and high death rates; second, high birth rates and low
death rates; and
third, low birth rates and low death rates; a fourth stage in which deaths
out number
births has made its appearance in the most Industrialised nations
(Henslin, 2009).

189
Consequently, as illustrated by Ogunbameru (2009), the four expected
results would
be as follows:
Births high + Deaths high = Stable population at low level.
Births high + Deaths low = A growing population with spreading age
base.
Births low + Deaths high = A declining population.
Births low + Deaths low = Stable population but aging.
Any such shift in population structure is called a demographic transition
and can be of
several kinds.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
Identify the key aspects of demographic transition
1.3.2 Phases of Demographic Transition
Figure 11 indicates the different phases of demographic transition.
Fig. 11: The demographic Transition
Source: Henslin, (2009). Page 396
Using past birth and death rate statistics over a long period of time for a
number of
developed countries, a model has been developed called the
demographic transition
64
model. It suggests that all countries pass through similar population
stages, as seen in
Figure 11. After fluctuating high birth and death rates in stage 1, death
rates fall
because of better medical care and improved food production. With
birth rates fairly
constant, the fall in the death rate results in a rapid population increase
in stage 2 of
the model. In stage 3, birth rates also fall because of family planning
and the desire
for more material possessions instead of children. In stage 4, birth and
death rates
level out. According to this model, this sequence of change should
apply to low

190
economically developed countries as they become industrialised and
standards of
living should rise just as they did in the past for many developed
countries (Lines,
Bolwell and Norman, 1997).The model assumes that all countries will
become
industrialised and experience a fall in the death rate in stage 2.
Table 9: Countries with the Youngest and Oldest Populations, 2011
YOUNGEST % AGES<15 OLDEST %AGES 65+
Niger 48.9 Japan 23.2
Uganda 48.3 Germany 20.7
Mali 47.6 Italy 20.2
Angola 47.3 Greece 18.9
Zambia 46.5 Sweden 18.5
Burundi 46.3 Portugal 17.9
Congo, Dem. Rep. 46.0 Bulgaria 17.7
Mozambique 45.3 Austria 17.6
Chad 45.3 Finland 17.5
Burkina Faso 45.2 Latvia 17.4
Source: Population Reference Bureau (2011). World Population
Data Sheet
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
Study and interpret Table 9
1.3.3 Demographic Transition: An Economic Explanation of
Population
Dynamics
Demographic transition is a population theory that relates economic
development to
patterns of population growth. The general position of demographic
transition is that
if people feel economically secure, then the population growth will
slow. In other
words, through industrialisation, people obtain a better standard of
living which
encourages smaller families. To pass the "good life" on to their children,
parents keep

191
their families small. It makes sense! Middle-class necessities, like a
university
education, are expensive. Therefore, families with several children find
it more
difficult to send all of their children to college. For much of the
industrial world, the
demographic transition model may be a good predictor of how
populations in the
world change. There are signs, however, that much of the developing
world is not
following the industrialised nations into the final phase of demographic
transition.
Some nations have gotten "stuck" in the second phase. Countries that
continue to
65
experience high birth rates and low death rates might drop back into the
first phase
that means that death rates will go up dramatically.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
State the general position of demographic transition in relation to
economic security
1.4 CONCLUSION
All countries pass through similar population stages of demographic
transition. The
demographic transition model assumes that all countries will become
industrialised
and experience a fall in the death rate with the resultant population
increase, before
stabilising.
1.5 SUMMARY
Our focus in this unit was on the concept of demographic transition.
You learnt that
demographic transition is the process whereby a country moves from
high birth and
high death rates to low birth and low death rates with an increase in
population

192
growth. We studied the phases/stages of demographic transition; and
concluded by
finding out that: the general position of demographic transition is that if
people feel
economically secure, then the population growth will slow. In other
words, through
industrialisation, people obtain a better standard of living which
encourages smaller
families.
1.6 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT
i. Use the various stages to explain meaning of demographic transition.
ii. Briefly describe the effect of economic development on patterns of
population growth.
1.7 REFERENCES/FURTHER READING
Henslin, J. M. (2009). Essentials of Sociology: A Down-to- Earth
Approach. (8th ed.).
U.S.A.: Allyn and Bacon.
Lines, C. J. Bolwell, L. H. & Norman, M. (1997). Revise GCSE
Geography. London:
Letts Educational.
Ogunbameru, O. A. (Ed.). (2009). Sociology: A Contemporary Science
of Human
Interaction in Society. Ibadan, Nigeria: Penthouse Publications (Nig.)
Russ, L. (2008). Introduction to Demography. Lecture Notes.
66
1.8 POSSIBLE ANSWERS TO SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
• Key aspects of demographic transition
Demographic transition is the process whereby a country moves from
high
birth and high death rates to low birth and low death rates with an
increase in
population growth. Its key aspects include:
Births high + Deaths high = Stable population • at low level.
• Births high + Deaths low = A growing population with spreading age
base.
Births low + Deaths high = A declining population.

193
Births low + Deaths low = Stable population but aging.
• Table 9: Countries with youngest and oldest populations
Countries with high % of youngest people (below age 15 years) will
require
facilities for this age bracket such as schools and sports etc.
Countries with high % older people (above age 65 years) will require
resting
facilities such as hospitals.
• General disposition of demographic transition in relation to economic
security
The general position of demographic transition is that if people feel
economically secure, then the population growth will slow. In other
words,
through industrialisation, people obtain a better standard of living which
encourages smaller families. To pass the "good life" on to their children,
parents keep their families small. It makes sense! Middle-class
necessities, like
a university education, are expensive. Therefore, families with several
children
find it more difficult to send all of their children to college.
67
UNIT 2 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONS AND DISEASE
PATTERNS
CONTENTS
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Objectives
2.3 Main Content
2.3.1 Disease
2.3.2 Links between Population and Infectious Diseases
2.3.3 Demographic and Epidemiologic Transitions
2.4 Conclusion
2.5 Summary
2.6 Tutor- Marked Assignment
2.7 References/Further Reading
2.8 Possible Answers to Self-Assessment Exercise
2.1 INTRODUCTION

194
We learnt in previous units that demographic transition is one of the
most popular
population theories. We understood that every country passes through
demographic
transition, although the number of phases depends on individual
countries‘
circumstances. In this unit, you will be reminded of the definition of
disease. We shall
also look at the relationships between population growth, population
structure,
population movement and disease occurrence.
2.2 OBJECTIVES
At the end of this unit, you should be able to:
• define disease
• describe the relationship between population growth and disease
occurrence
• identify diseases that exist as a result of population
growth.
2.3 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONS AND DISEASE PATTERNS
2.3.1 Disease
In its 1948 charter, the World Health Organisation defined health as: ‘a
state of
complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the
absence of disease
or infirmity’. However, for most practical purposes, objectives of health
programmes
are more readily defined in terms of prevention or treatment of disease.
One of the topics which finds a prominent place in conversation today is
the question
of disease. Throughout human evolution, the three great causes of death
have been
famine, disease and war. The loss of life from the latter cause is almost
negligible
compared with the other two. In the past, famine had caused devastating
loss of life,
68

195
and even today there are large areas of the world where it is still a
notable cause of
premature death. Modern scientific agriculture, better distribution and
storage of
surpluses could eradicate famine for all time.
Disease has been defined in many ways and is somewhat difficult to
define. If we
mean any departure from the normal condition of the body, then we
have to define this
normal condition. There are few people who have abounding and
persistent health
throughout their whole lives. It is however customary to define disease
as some
malevolent changes in the tissues of the body, though this definition
excludes certain
mental disorders where no tissue change is demonstrable. According to
Vines and
Rees (1972), diseases may be divided into nine main groups: Inherited
abnormalities;
Dietary deficiency; Infection by pathogenic organisms, this is a vast
group of diseases
ranging from virus to helminthic – infection, it includes all epidemic
and pandemic
diseases e.g. poliomyelitis, influenza, tuberculosis, amoebic dysentery,
malaria,
sleeping sickness, hookworm disease, schistosomiasis, etc.; Physical
injury; Poisons;
New growth, ranging from benign to malignant carcinoma;
Degeneration with age;
Anxiety states; Hormone deficiency or excess. But for our purpose here,
disease is
anything that a population (or an individual) experiences that causes,
literally,
‘disease’, pain, distress of all sorts, disability of any kind, or death.
These constitute
disease from whatever cause, including injuries or psychiatric disability.

196
Measuring Health and Disease
The many reasons for obtaining health related information all hinge on
the need for
data to guide efforts toward reducing the consequences of disease and
enhancing the
benefits of good health. These include the need to identify which
interventions would
have the greatest effect, to identify emerging trends and anticipate future
needs, to
assist the determining priorities for expenditure, to provide information
for education
to the public, and to help in setting health research agenda.
The relative importance (burden) of different diseases in a population
depends on their
frequency (incidence and prevalence), severity (mortality and extent of
serious
morbidity), consequences (health, social, economic), and the type of
people affected
(gender, age).
The first task in measuring disease in a population is to count its
occurrence. There are
three (3) commonly used methods of disease occurrence: Cumulative
incidence,
incidence density and prevalence. Cumulative incidence or incidence
proportion is the
number of new cases of a disease that occur in a population at risk for
developing the
disease during a specified period of time. For this to have meaning,
three components
are necessary:
• A definition of onset of event
• A defined population and
• A particular period of time.
Incidence density or often simply Incidence rate is the occurrence of
new cases of
disease per unit of person – time.

197
69
Prevalence is a measure of present status rather a newly occurring
disease. It measures
the proportion of people who have a disease at a specific time.
To understand the burden of disease in a population, it is important to
consider also the
severity as indicated by the morbidity and premature mortality that it
causes. Mortality
has been the most important measure of Health.
Pandemics
Anderson, Morton and Green, (1978) observed that diseases related to
demographic
transitions usually present as pandemics. The term ‘pandemic’ literally
means ‘all
people’ and is used to denote a disease conflagration over a considerable
area. A statewide
outbreak of a disease may be regarded as a pandemic, but generally the
term is
used to denote a nationwide, continent wide or worldwide outbreak.
In some of the under-developed nations of the world during the past
decades,
pandemics of acute infectious diseases such as cholera have occurred.
These outbreaks
have usually been confined to a single nation or to a small group of
nations. Even in
the developing nations, there is not the likelihood of a devastating
pandemic of an
acute infectious disease such as occurred in the past, but moderately
severe outbreaks
can be expected. In well developed nations, scientific advances in the
field of
epidemiology make even a moderate pandemic of an acute infectious
disease highly
unlikely.
Chronic infections still plague vast segments of the population in many
nations of the

198
world. Presently there are millions of malaria cases, ascariasis,
hookworm disease and
leprosy. Advances in our knowledge of infection and its control will pay
ample
dividends in terms of protection for the future.
High population density is a risk factor in the incidence of several health
problems
including communicable diseases like hepatitis A, contact transmitted
diseases,
crowding associated diseases like tuberculosis, homicide and diseases
associated with
poor sanitation and those associated with stressful living conditions
such as
hypertension.
An important demographic phenomenon that has serious implications
for levels of
health status outcome in a population is demographic transition. In
peasant societies,
both birth and death rates tend to be high. The inadequate state of public
health
attendant on high incidence and prevalence of communicable diseases,
poor maternal
and child health facilities all contribute to claim a high death toll. The
rapid population
growth is characterised by high use pressure on available social and
physical
infrastructures, overcrowding, the emergence of unhealthy
environmental and living
conditions, etc. All these are associated with a set of health risk factors
associated with
the aetiology of chronic and degenerative diseases (Abanobi, 2004).
70
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
State the difference between disease incidence and prevalence in a
population
2.3.2 Links between Population and Infectious Diseases

199
Population density and urbanisation are two major factors affecting
disease spread.
People who live in close proximity to one another spread diseases more
quickly and
easily. Slums around urban areas are extremely vulnerable to infectious
diseases due
to poor sanitation, high population density and high levels of poverty,
all of which
increase disease incidence. For example, the increasing number of
people living in
urban areas around the world will continue to facilitate tuberculosis
transmission and
weaken attempts to control the disease. Migration also affects the spread
of disease.
The probability of encountering new diseases increases as humans move
into
previously uninhabited lands because of population growth, or as
humans migrate into
areas where they do not have resistance to certain diseases.
People who move from dry highlands to wet lowlands can become
exposed to malaria.
Migrants may be particularly vulnerable to malarial infection because of
the fatigue
and malnutrition that accompany relocation. The risk is highest when
migrants move
to tropical areas, which are home to a larger number of infectious
disease pathogens
than areas at higher latitudes (Morens et al., 2004) and Jones et al.,
(2008).
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
Give the relationship between population growth and disease occurrence
2.3.3 Demographic and Epidemiologic Transition
According to Merson (2006), The term demographic transition was first
used by F. W.
Notestein in 1945 to describe the changes in birth and death rates that
historically have

200
accompanied the shift from a traditional to a modern society. With
modernisation (a
complex term indicating social and economic development), sharp
declines in
mortality have been followed by a reduction in fertility, although unduly
lagging by
years or decades. The term transition refers to the shift away from a
stable, high
stationary stage of population in which very high birth rates are
balanced by very high
death rates and there is little or no population growth. Merson further
observed that
historically, all countries that have undergone modernisation with a
marked drop in
under-five mortality rate have had rapid population growth. In the past,
this population
growth was followed by falling fertility rates but the reasons for the
drop are not
entirely clear. It has been pointed out that a potential major problem that
may arise,
termed the demographic trap, in which fertility rates do not drop. This
situation would
lead to the classic Malthusian scenario in which massive starvation and
epidemic
disease overtake the population.
In 1971, Omran described the underlying reasons for demographic
transition and used
the term Epidemiologic transition to explain the changing causal factors
of disease that
71
accounted for the dramatic drop in under-five mortality which was
largely due to
reduction in malnutrition and communicable diseases.
It is important to note that although high rates of maternal mortality are
characteristic

201
of low and middle income world, reduction of mortality occur in a
different time frame
from those of under- five mortality. Reduction in maternal mortality
requires a much
better development infrastructure, including ready availability of
surgical and blood
transfusion capacity, plus improved communication and transportation
systems.
Thus, drops in maternal mortality occur much further along the road
towards economic
development, and changes occur only after shifts in the under-five
mortality have been
seen.
Major changes in the patterns and causes of injury are also likely to
occur with
modernisation. For example, road traffic injury tends to increase as
countries go
through the stages of development in which there is great increase in
vehicles.
Vines and Rees (1972), observed that a number of diseases have
increased in incidence
because of three main causes: the concentration of large populations in
cities, making
for large spread of infections; ease of transport which has spread many
localised
diseases all over the world; owing to the vast amount of medical
attention now
dispensed, it is often possible to cure diseases which would have been
fatal. Thus there
is, in most countries, a gradually aging population, less resistant than the
young.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
Enumerate the basic ideas of demographic epidemiologic transition
2.4 CONCLUSION
An important demographic phenomenon that has serious implications
for levels of

202
health status outcome in a population is demographic transition.
2.5 SUMMARY
In this unit, we learnt that population density and urbanisation are two
major factors
affecting disease spread and that diseases related to demographic
transitions usually
present as pandemics. We also learnt that people who live in close
proximity to one
another spread diseases more quickly and easily. Major changes in the
patterns and
causes of injury are also likely to occur with modernisation.
2.6 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT
i. Define disease.
ii. What is pandemic?
iii. Explain how population density influences disease occurrence and
prevalence
72
iv. Describe the effect of modernisation on pattern of disease
occurrence; give
three examples.
73
2.7 REFERENCES/FURTHER READING
Anderson, C.L. Morton, R. F. & Green, L. W. (1978). Community
Health. (3rd ed.).
Saint Louis: the C.V. Mosby Company.
Jones, Patel, Levy, Storeygard, Balck, Gittleman & Daszak (2008).
Handbook of
Malaria Infection in the Tropics. Bologna: Organizzazione per la
Cooperazione Sanitaria Internazionale.
Merson, M. H. (2006). International Public Health: Diseases,
Programs, Systems and
Policies. (2nd ed.). Amazon.com. USA: Jones and Bartlett Publishers
Inc.
Morens, D. M., Folkers, G. K. & Fauci, A. S. (2004). The Challenge of
Emerging and Re-Emerging Infectious Diseases. Nature 430:
242-249.

203
Prothero, R. (1997). Migration and Malaria. In: Carosi, G. & Castelli, F.
(Eds.).
United Nations (1953). The Determinants and Consequences of
Population Trends. New York.
Vines, A.E. & Rees, N. (1972). Plant and Animal Biology, Vol.II, (4th
ed.). London: Pitman Publishing.
WHO (2001). Macro–Economics and Health: Investing in Health for
Economic Development. Geneva, Switzerland: WHO.
74
2.8 POSSIBLE ANSWERS TO SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
• The difference between disease incidence and prevalence in a
population
Incidence of disease is the number of new cases occurring in a place at a
time
Prevalence of disease is the total number of (new and old) cases
occurring in a
place at a time
• The relationship between population growth and disease occurrence
Population density and urbanisation are two major factors affecting
disease
spread. People who live in close proximity to one another spread
diseases more
quickly and easily. Slums around urban areas are extremely vulnerable
to
infectious diseases due to poor sanitation, high population density and
high
levels of poverty, all of which increase disease incidence. Migration
also
affects the spread of disease. The probability of encountering new
diseases
increases as humans move into previously uninhabited lands because of
population growth, or as humans migrate into areas where they do not
have
resistance to certain diseases.
• The basic ideas in demographic epidemiologic transition

204
The changes in birth and death rates that historically have accompanied
the
shift from a traditional to a modern society. With modernisation (a
complex
term indicating social and economic development), sharp declines in
mortality
have been followed by a reduction in fertility, although unduly lagging
by years
or decades.
1
UNIT 3 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONS AND HEALTH
SERVICES
CONTENTS
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Objectives
3.3 Main Content
3.3.1 The Demographic Transition
3.3.2 Population and Health
3.3.3 Population Variables and Planning for Health Needs
3.3.4 Future Population Growth Estimates
3.3.5 Impact of Population Growth on Health Services
3.4 Conclusion
3.5 Summary
3.6 Tutor-Marked Assignment
37 References/Further Reading
3.8 Possible Answers to Self-Assessment Exercise
3.1 INTRODUCTION
In the previous unit, we studied the relationship between demographic
transition and
diseases. We shall now look at the relationships between population
growth,
population structure, population movement and health services.
3.2 OBJECTIVES
At the end of this unit, you should be able to:
• explain demographic transition
• define health and health services

205
• explain the relationship between population and health
• identify the population variables and data required for health
planning.
3.3 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONS AND HEALTH SERVICES
3.3.1 The Demographic Transition
The main contribution of demographic thinking to wider debates about
population
change is the demographic transition theory. This has had a deep impact
on the work
of national and international agencies in both the developed and the
developing world
for the last 50 years. The theory identifies different stages of
demographic transition
based on fertility and mortality levels, ranging from stage one, when
fertility and
mortality are balanced at very high levels; to stage two, when mortality
starts to
decrease and fertility subsequently declines; to the third stage, when
population growth
is close to zero, with low birth and death rates. This pattern has been
experienced by
2
every country in the developed world and has been crucial for studies of
the
relationship between fertility and mortality. One of the major
implications of the
developed world demographic studies based on this model has been the
realisation that
fertility decline in the developing world is not necessarily dependent on
increasing
industrialisation or modernisation, as it was in developed countries
(Caldwell, 1976).
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
Outline the stages of demographic transition
3.3.2 Population and Health

206
Population had been defined before as: the people living in an area. It is
the degree to
which an area has been populated. The World Health Organisation
(WHO) defines
health as: A state of complete physical, mental, and social well-being of
an individual
and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity. The services
provided to ensure the
achievement and maintenance of health are referred to as health
services, and these are
many and varied.
Park (1985) in (Iragunima, 2006), defined health care as all those
personal and
community health services including medical care and related
educational and research
directed towards the protection and promotion of health of the
community. Iragunima
(2006) explained that service is generally defined as an act of helpful
activity.‘ He
further said that the terms: health care, health services and health care
delivery are
used interchangeably. Health services are actions or activities
undertaken by health
professionals for the purpose of prevention, cure and rehabilitation of
the individual,
family and community.
Health services in developing countries, including Nigeria, are
characterised by
numerous problems among which are: insufficient manpower;
insufficient health
facilities; inadequate equipment and supplies; lack of infrastructure such
as electricity,
potable water, good roads and means of transportation, especially in
rural areas. All
these problems are as a result of increase in population.

207
The health and health care needs of a population cannot be measured or
met without
acknowledge of its size and characteristics. Demography is concerned
with this
essential numbering of the people‘ and with understanding population
dynamics - how
populations change in response to the interplay between fertility,
mortality, and
migration. This understanding is a prerequisite for making the forecasts
about future
population size and structure which can underpin healthcare planning.
Analysis of both
the present and the future necessitates a review of the past. The number
of very old
people in a population, for example, depends on the number of births
eight or nine
decades earlier and risks of death at successive ages throughout the
intervening period.
The proportion of very old people depends partly on this numerator but
more
importantly on the denominator (the size of the population as a whole)
itself a function
of reproductive behaviour, mortality, and net migration from yesterday
back through
time. The number of births in a population depends not just on current
patterns of
3
family building, but also on the number of women at risk‘ of
reproduction itself a
function of past trends in fertility and mortality. Similarly, the number
of deaths (and
their distribution by cause) is strongly influenced by age structure. For
this reason,
although life expectancy at birth in the developed world is some 13
years longer than

208
in the less developed world (78 and 65 years respectively), crude death
rates deaths per
1000 population of all ages are very similar (eight and nine) (World
Bank, 1999).
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
State the relationship between population and provision of health
services.
3.3.3 Population Variables and Planning for Health Needs
In order to plan a health system which will provide health care services,
well, baseline
data is essential. In addition, an analysis of the following data could be
utilised:
Population size and spatial distribution- apart from the total population
figure for any
given area (country, state, local government, community), population
distribution and
population density, particularly at state and national levels, can assist.
The information
here will help in determining, in line with WHO standards, the number
and type
(hospital, clinics, primary health care centres) of health care facilities
that will serve
the population; the location of these facilities; and the number of health
personnel
required, as a ratio to the population.
Age and sex structure- Data on the age and sex structure of a society are
crucial to the
planning of health care systems. Knowledge of the total number of
infants, children,
youth, middle aged, and elderly people, is essential for planning. Each
of them has
their requirements in terms of drugs, facilities, and medical specialists.
Also, the
number and percentage of those in the different groups will provide
information on
future population growth.

209
Fertility- statistics on fertility, of course, indicate the pattern of
reproduction and
growth of the population.
Mortality- statistics on mortality will indicate the trend in death rates,
especially
infant, under-five, and maternal. The mortality and fertility statistics
together will
show the phase of transition.
Population growth and projections- this shows the population structure
and predicted
expectations.
Disability- this should indicate likely disability in children, disabilities
associated with
aging, and the extent of problems of mental illness. Others are:
Household size,
structure and composition; marital status; literacy and educational
attainment;
economic and employment characteristics; migration and urbanisation.
4
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
List key aspects of population variables that are required for baseline
data in planning
of health services
3.3.4 Future Population Growth Estimates
To be able to objectively plan for health services calls for regular supply
and
availability of population data. It is vital that planning takes account of
both current
social and economic needs of the population, and its future
requirements. A way out
has been to undertake population projections into the future based on
the existence of
an agreed and statistically disciplined base population census data.
Methodologically, the component method of projection, which entails
assessing the

210
dynamic interaction of the population components of fertility, mortality
and migration
variables, is applied. The young age structures of many populations in
the developing
world mean that these populations have a huge built-in potential for
growth.
3.3.5 Impact of Population Growth on Health Services
The rate of population growth and indeed distribution affects the
demand and supply
of all types of health services. The provision and utilisation of all health
infrastructures
and institutions, personnel and manpower, support services including
maternal and
child health and family planning, and preventive services including
immunisation and
environmental sanitation, must take account of the growth, structure and
distribution
of the population.
Data about the resources available for the delivery of health care to the
community are
necessary for the efficient management of health services. The
inventory should
include data on health institutions and details of the number of various
types of health
personnel.
If standards of health are not to suffer and decline, it will be necessary
to match the
rapid increase in the rate of population growth with a commensurate
increase in the
supply of needed funds and resources – infrastructure, personnel and
services. Health
services, particularly in the rural areas where roads, transportation and
communications are difficult, should be suitably located to make them
easily
accessible for use.
Population Growth and Health Needs

211
There are two key issues: population growth is slowing down the
achievement of the
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and has a detrimental impact
on the
environment and food security. Demographers are calling upon
governments to pay
more attention to population growth issues in general and family
planning in
particular, which are not as prominent now as they were after the UN
Conference on
5
Population and Development held in Cairo, in 1994. Regardless of their
limitations,
the MDGs have drawn attention to population growth and family
planning issues.
At UNFPA, which has the leading role at the United Nations on
population and
development issues, Osotimehin now hopes to turn the focus of the
agency, donors,
civil society and the governments of the countries served by UNFPA to
practical,
workable measures that hasten progress towards the International
Conference on
Population and Development (ICPD) objectives, as well as the
Millennium
Development Goals, particularly Target 5-b, to achieve universal access
to
reproductive health by 2015. And we know that to meet development
goals, we need
to pay greater attention to adolescents and youth, said Osotimehin,
noting there are
more than 1.2 billion adolescents between the ages of 10 and 19, about
nine in 10 of
them living in developing countries. The report warns that without a
firm

212
commitment to population, reproductive health and gender issues, it is
unlikely that
the goals and targets of the International Conference on Population and
Development
and the Millennium Summit will be met. Population is about people,
supporting
rights and human dignity and creating conditions for each one of us to
live on a
healthy planet and reach our full potential.
In many parts of the developing world, where population growth is
outpacing
economic growth, the need for reproductive health services, especially
family
planning, remains great. The attainment of a stable population is a sine
qua non for
accelerated, planned economic growth and development. Governments
that are serious
about eradicating poverty should also be serious about providing the
services,
supplies, information that women need to exercise their reproductive
rights (Tiziana,
2010).
In developing countries, where continuous population growth is the
result of steady
fertility levels in a period of decreasing mortality, analysis of fertility
trends is crucial
to understanding the impact that population growth will have on
development and on
health care systems.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
List the impacts of population growth on health services in Nigeria
3.4 CONCLUSION
We have reviewed the meaning and phases of demographic transition;
defined health
and health care services; and linked changes in the size and structure of
populations to

213
health needs, and consequently required health services.
6
3.5 SUMMARY
At the end of this unit, you learnt that:
• The health and health-care needs of a population cannot be measured
or met
without knowledge of its size and characteristics; and therefore, in order
to plan
a health system which will provide health care services, well, data is
essential.
• The rate of population growth and indeed distribution affects the
demand and supply of all types of health services.
• The structure and transition phase will determine the type of health
services,
health institutions, personnel and services to be provided.
• The size or density of the population determines the quantity or
amount of
health care services provided.
3.6 TUTOR- MARKED ASSIGNMENT
i. State three (3) problems of health services in Nigeria, and relate them
to
population.
ii. Briefly explain any five (5) of the data which could be utilised to
plan, a
health system which will provide health care services.
3.7 REFERENCES/FURTHER READING
Osotimehin, B. (2011). State of World Population.
Caldwell, J. C. (1976). ‗Toward a Restatement of Demographic
Transition Theory‘,
Population and Development Review.
Haub, C. (2008). ‗Tracking Trends in Low Fertility Countries: An
Uptick in
Europe?‘ In Population Reference Bureau (ed.). Retrieved September
2008,
http://www.prb.org/Articles/2008/tfrtrendsept08.aspx

214
Ibet-Iragunima, M. W. (2006). Fundamentals of Primary Health Care.
Port Harcourt,
Nigeria: Paulimatex Printers.
National Population Commission (2003). Data Needs for Sustainable
Development in
the 21st Century. Abuja, Nigeria: NPC.
Population Action International (2012). 1300 19th Street, New Suite
200 Washington,
Dc 20036-1624 USA.
Tiziana Leone (2010). Health Economics, Policy and Law. Cambridge:
Cambridge
University Press.
World Health Organisation (WHO) (1999). The World Health Report
1999. WHO,
Geneva.
7
3.8 POSSIBLE ANSWERS TO SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
• Stages of demographic transition
Stage one: when fertility and mortality are balanced at very high levels;
Stage two: when mortality starts to decrease and fertility subsequently
declines;
Stage three: when population growth is close to zero, with low birth and
death
rates.
• The relationship between population and provision of health services
The health and health care needs of a population can only be measured
or met
with a knowledge of its size and characteristics. Demography is
concerned with
this essential numbering of the people‘ and with understanding
population
dynamics - how populations change in response to the interplay between
fertility, mortality, and migration. This understanding is a prerequisite
for
making the forecasts about future population size and structure which
can

215
underpin healthcare planning. Analysis of both the present and the
future
necessitates a review of the past. The number of very old people in a
population, for example, depends on the number of births eight or nine
decades
earlier and risks of death at successive ages throughout the intervening
period.
The proportion of very old people depends partly on this numerator but
more
importantly on the denominator (the size of the population as a whole)
itself a
function of reproductive behaviour, mortality, and net migration from
yesterday
back through time. The number of births in a population depends not
just on
current patterns of family building, but also on the number of women at
risk‘ of
reproduction itself a function of past trends in fertility and mortality.
• Key aspects of population variables that are required for baseline data
in
planning of health services.
Population size and spatial distribution
Age and sex structure
Fertility and mortality
Population growth and production
Disability
• Impacts of population growth on health services in Nigeria
The rate of population growth and indeed distribution affects the
demand and
supply of all types of health services. The provision and utilisation of all
health
infrastructures and institutions, personnel and manpower, support
services
including maternal and child health and family planning, and preventive
services including immunisation and environmental sanitation, must
take

216
account of the growth, structure and distribution of the population.
8
UNIT 4 INDICES OF POPULATION, HEALTH AND
DEVELOPMENT
CONTENTS
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Objectives
4.3 Main Content
4.3.1 What are Indices?
4.3.2 Indices of Population
4.3.3 Indices of Health
4.3.4 Indices of Development
4.4 Conclusion
4.5 Summary
4.6 Tutor-Marked Assignment
4.7 References/Further Reading
4.8 Possible Answers to Self-Assessment Exercise
4.1 INTRODUCTION
Health status indicators and indices play a major role in the
measurement and
assessment of population health status. They are very important to the
practicing
public health professional. Without them, the process of community
diagnosis will be
cumbersome and meaningless. In this concluding unit, we shall consider
the indices of
population, health and development.
4.2 OBJECTIVES
At the end of this unit, you should be able to:
• explain the meaning of indices
• state the uses of indices
• identify indices of population, health and development
• utilise the knowledge of these indices to understand and utilise
technical
reports.

217
4.3 INDICES OF POPULATION, HEALTH AND
DEVELOPMENT
4.3.1 What are Indices?
The term index or indicator connotes something that can be regarded as
a sign that
shows the presence of an empirical phenomenon or as is sometimes the
case, in what
direction something is changing. Indices are pointers or alarm in a
sector.
Indices are used to: study populations, plan and re-plan, set targets,
monitor and
evaluate activities in populations, with the view of achieving goals.
9
Criteria for Selection of Indices
Because of inappropriate data and imperfect measures, indices or
indicators that are
currently available must be utilised. The basic criteria for selecting
appropriate
quantitative assessment tools to reflect the status of the population being
assessed are:
data availability, level of analysis, data quality, comprehensiveness,
specificity, index
calculation, and utility.
The purpose of providing the criteria is to encourage the adoption of
standardised
procedures in the development, selection, and application of a indices,
so as to avoid
invalid comparisons or disparities in results and, potentially, erroneous
conclusions
(Abanobi (2004); Aibor and Olorunda (2006) and Nnodu et al. (2009).
According to Nnodu et al. (2009), population growths over time and
across space are
mostly explained by rates ratios and spacing. Rates generally are indices
of
measurements between sets, variables or phenomena. Rate compares the
relative

218
increase or decrease between population characteristics or components
being
measured. A ratio on the other hand is a relationship between two
variables or
number and it compares the degree of the relationship over time and
across space.
Examples of population ratios include:
Sex ratio
Dependency ratio
Age ratio
Ratio of married females to married males
Ratio of births to deaths
Sex ratio at death in the population
Ratio of literate to illiterate population
Ratio of doctors to population.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
List the major criteria for selecting indices in health demography
4.3.2 Indices of Population
A population is usually described in terms of its size or the number of
people who
make up the aggregate and its composition. The indices used in studying
populations
include:
Number of persons inhabiting a
defined place in time t
Population Density =
Area of the place in square
kilometres
= Number of persons per square kilometre of the place
in time t
Dependency Population of persons
Population of
persons
10
0-14 years old
+ 65 years old

219
or more x 100
Ratio. =
Population of Persons 15 – 64
years old
Doubling Period (D.P.)
This refers to the number of years it will take the population of a place
to double itself.
D.P. = loge2
t
Where; D.P. = Doubling period; r = Growth rate in %
Crude Birth Rate is defined as the number of live births during the year
per 1000
population of the specified area. The numerator is derived from all
reported live births
during the period. It is therefore derivable from archival records and
from census
reports.
Number of live births in t x1000
Crude Birth Rate =
in time ‘t’. Mid-year Population in time, t
The Mid-year population is the population of an area as at 1st July of
the year being
considered. We can also refer to mean population as being equivalent to
midyear
population.
Midyear/mean population, P = ½ (Pt + Pt + n).
Where, Pt = Initial population; Pt+ n = population at a new date; and n =
Time interval
Fertility is a more refined measure of the risk of birth in a population.
The
denominator is specific to persons in the population who are susceptible
to pregnancy
and childbirth, namely women of childbearing age, and not the total
population.
Number of live births in t x 1000
Fertility Rate in time, t = Number of women between

220
The ages of 15-49years old in time, t
Total number of births by all married
women at the end of their reproductivity x 1000 =
Total number of married women at the end of their child-bearing
period Completed Fertility Rate
Or Final Birth Rate
= number of children ever born per 1,000 women at the end of their
reproductive years (49years old)
11
Number of males in population
Sex Ratio = x 100
Number of females in population
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
Explain (a) population density and (b) sex ration
4.3.3 Indices of Health
A health status index is a multivariate factor derived from a composite
of variables
that are demonstrably predictive, statistically or by use of other causal
criteria, which
reflects the health status of an individual or a defined population group.
Some
examples of health status indices are: the Health Appraisal Index,
Wellness Appraisal
Index, Cornell Medical Index (CMI), the Quality of Life Index (QLI),
the Health
Promoting Lifestyle Profile, and the Lifetime Health Monitoring
Program
(Abanobi,2004).
Health indices are prominently used in health risk appraisal exercises
and in the
assessment of needs for health promotion programming. In their use, it
is necessary to
ascertain the extent to which the component variables or attributes of
the index
determine health status outcome. A health status determinant is a factor
in the

221
presence of which the occurrence, magnitude, and impact of disease or
health problem
increases. They could be biological, environmental, behavioural, social,
psychological, economic, organisational, cultural, or otherwise
(Abanobi, 2004).
The indicators of health include: fertility levels, maternal and child
mortality, as well
as immunisation and nutrition levels.
Infant and child mortality rates are basic indicators of a country‘s socio-
economic
situation and quality of life (UNDP, 2007). The rates are important for
identifying
population groups at risk; planning, monitoring, and evaluating
population and health
programmes and policies; and monitoring progress towards the
Millennium
Development Goal to reduce child mortality by two-thirds by the year
2015.
The 2008 NDHS presented the levels, trends, and differentials in
mortality among
children under the age of five. Childhood mortality estimates are based
on information
from women‘s birth histories.
Age-specific childhood mortality rates are presented as follows:
Neonatal mortality: the probability of dying within the first month of
life Post-neonatal
mortality: the difference between infant and neonatal mortality
Infant mortality: the probability of dying before the first birthday
Child mortality: the probability of dying between the first and fifth
birthdays
12
Under-five mortality: the probability of dying between birth and the
fifth birthday.
All rates are expressed per 1,000 live births, except for child mortality,
which is
expressed per 1,000 children surviving to 12 months of age.

222
Also, other morbidity and mortality statistics are used as health indices;
they include:
Mortality
The CDR of a given population is defined as the number of deaths per
1000 persons in that population in a calendar year.
Number of deaths reported in t
Crude Death rate = _ x 1000
in time, t. Mid-year population in time, t
Example: For a given community in 2002, there were 2,000,000
thousand persons estimated to reside in the area in that year. A total of
30,000 deaths were recorded in that year. The annual crude death rate
for
2002 for the community is:
30,000 x 1000
2,000,000
= 15 deaths per 1000 population of the given population in 2002.
The annual death rate is a generalised indicator of the health status of a
population, but because it is based on the total population, it is a crude
rate.
Cause –Specific = Number of deaths due to a specified cause
Death Rate x 100,000
Estimated population at mid-year
Number of deaths occurring among persons
Age- Specific Death in specified age interval during t
Rate for Persons in = x 1,000
Defined Age-bracket Total number of persons in
age-bracket (interval) in time, t
Under-five Total number of deaths in children
mortality Rate 0-4 years old in the year
= x 100,000
Estimated total population of children
0-4years in that year
ii
Age-sex-Specific
Death Rate for Males
30-40 years

223
Number of deaths among males
aged 30-40 years in year t
= _ x 1,000
Total number of males aged
30-40 years in year t
For Age-sex-specific Death Rate, the age and sex should be substituted
to achieve
desired results.
Infant Mortality Number of deaths of children
Rate in year t = 0-1 year in t
_ x 1,000
Total number of live births in t
Number of Maternal deaths
Maternal Mortality due to puerperal causes in t
Rate in period t = x 1,000
Number of live births in t
= Number of maternal deaths per 1,000 Live
births in the period t
Total number of deaths due to
A given cause (X) in a specified
Proportional time period
Mortality = x 100
Ratio of ‘X’ Total number of deaths due to
all causes in the same period
Case Fatality Rate For
Disease/Health Problem
‘y’ in ‘t’
Number of deaths due to y occurring
during time t
= x 100
Total number of cases of y
occurring during time t in
the given population.
i
Morbidity
There are limitations in measuring disease occurrence and these

224
manifests at both individual and population levels of assessment. The
most frequently used are:
Number of new cases of X occurring
Incidence Rate in population at risk in t
of Disease X = _ x 1,000
in period t Total number of persons in the population
Who are susceptible to disease X and
Exposed to its causative agent(s) /risk
factors in t
Number of old and new cases of X
Prevalence occurring in population in period t
Rate of = _ x 1,000
Disease X Total number of persons in the population
in period t during time period t
= Number of cases of disease X per 1,000 persons in t.
SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
Explain (a) maternal mortality and (b) infant mortality. Express as rates
4.3.4 Indices of Development
Development involves measures that ensure adequate housing and work
space. It is
aimed at providing more efficient transportation, water supply,
sufficient energy, and
education. Development is consequently not a simple numerical
definition, but a
complex quality of life issue.
Characteristics of Underdevelopment
Ezeala- Harison, (1996) observed that under development is:
Consistent with low GDP levels; specifically, an underdevelopment
indicator, the
nation‘s GDP would be lower than ¼ of the GDP of United States of
America. The per
capital income would be quite low, even to those developed countries
with relatively
low population levels.
The economy tends to be agrarian. That is, the GDP and overall
production activities is

225
dominated by agriculture; not only for production, but for employment
(income and
livelihood).
High population growth: more than 2%/year. The population growth
rate tends to be
more than the growth GDP.
ii
The exports are monoculture. The foreign trade depends only on one or
two
agricultural products for export, to earn foreign exchange.
There is always a vicious cycle of poverty (VCP) syndrome.
The most common characteristic is economic dualism. This means: the
coexistence of
two interrelated and interdependent sectors: the traditional and modern
sectors within
the same economy.
The Indicators of Development
One difficulty in defining and measuring the level of development of a
nation is that
we are not always comparing like with like. As a result, there are a
number of ways
used to show development called indicators. There are a number of
indicators which
help to measure how developed a country is. Each indicator has its
strengths and
shortcomings. They include:
Gross National Product (GNP): is the total value of all goods and
services produced by
a country in one year, plus income from abroad for such things as
financial services
and company profits. By dividing this sum by the total population of the
country, the
GNP per capita is obtained. To give standardisation, this is expressed in
US dollars.
The GNP is a crude indicator of the standard of living of a country, but
it ignores a

226
number of other factors that other indicators cover.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): measures the total value of a country‘s
goods and
services without adding income from abroad.
Infant Mortality Rate: the relationship between GNP and infant
mortality is that –
when the GNP is high, infant mortality is low; but when the GNP is
low, infant
mortality rises.
Life Expectancy: the average number of years a baby born today can
expect to live.
The male life expectancy rate is generally lower than the female.
Calorie Intake: this is the average number of calories a person consumes
each day.
About 2400 calories every day will maintain good health.
Other Indicators: these include literacy rate percent of total population;
cars per 1000
population; people per doctor; Telephones per 1000 people.
Human Development Index: the HDI is a creation of the UNDP and
represents the
practical embodiment of their vision of human development as an
alternative vision to
what they perceive as the dominance of economic indicators in
development.
Economic development had the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), so
human
iii
development had to have the HDI, representing a measure of quality of
life. It
attempts to measure the extent to which a country is developed.
The HDI which came into use in 1990 comprises three components:
Life expectancy (a proxy indicator of health care and living
conditions). Adult literacy combined with years of schooling,
enrolment in primary, secondary and tertiary education.
Real GDP/ Capital

227
The UNDP have argued that these three components can act as proxy
indicators for
many others. For example, provision of clean water supply and (or
adequate nutrition)
would be reflected in life expectancy.
The index is scaled (0-1) or 0 to 100, with countries scoring over 80
being considered
as having a high human development. Scores of 50 – 79 have medium
human
development and those under 50 have low human development.
Countries can also be
placed in rank order using the HDI, as in Table 10.
Table 10: Some Indicators Applied to 10 Countries
Country GNP Life Infant Literacy HDI Rank*
US$
expectancy
(Years) Mortality % (175
Female/ Rate 0- countries)
100
Ethiopia 130 52 121 24 23 171
Pakistan 440 59 99 26 31 128
Sri Lanka 640 75 21 87 66 97
Philippines 960 68 50 89 60 100
Argentina 8060 75 29 95 83 30
Australia 17,980 81 7 99 97 11
UK 18,410 80 7 100 96 18
Finland 19,174 80 5 100 95 5
USA 25,860 80 8 96 98 2
Japan 34,630 82 4 100 98 3
*Canada is ranked as 1 of the most developed country
Source: Lines, Bolwell and Norman (1997), p.62.
As a key part of this strategy, the UNDP decided to present the HDI
within a country
‘league-table’ format and tables of ‘high’, ‘medium’ or ‘low’ human
development

228
applied by UNDP depending upon each country‘s value for the HDI.
Both the league
table presentation and ‘labelling’ promote a sense of ‘name and shame’
and
comparison of performance across peers.
Sadly and unsurprisingly, a lot of countries in Africa have low values
for the HDI,
implying that the level of human development for the continent is poor.
iv
It is not hard to appreciate how the three components may be related:
higher income
/capital could mean greater expenditure on education and health care for
example. In
that sense, even though the three components are quite different (a
heterogeneous
index) the HDI does have an internal consistency.
There are typically a two-year time lag in the data and gaps are filled in
various ways,
typically by making assumptions based upon data available for assumed
‘peers’.
Corruption Perception Index (CPI)
It is a recognised fact that one of the recognised drivers to bring about
human
development is good governance, and controlling corruption is an
important element
of this. Corruption can result in resources being diverted from public
good to private
consumption with the result that impacts intended to be of wider benefit
are lost.
Corruption may also drive up the cost of doing business with the result
that investment
is deterred and economic growth will suffer. But the very nature of
corruption makes
it difficult to gauge.
The Corruption Perception Index (CPI), created by the Berlin- based
Transparency

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International (TI; a non-governmental organisation) was designed to
provide a more
systematic snapshot of corruption in the same way that the HDI
provides a snapshot
of human development. Like the HDI, it combines a number of different
‘indicators’
intone, but unlike the HDI the indicators which are combined all
measure corruption.
The CPI is a homogeneous index in the sense that all the components
upon which it
is based seek to measure the same thing. Like the HDI, the CPI is based
on data
collected over a number of years prior to release of the index. It uses
several surveys
and expert assessments.
The CPI is based, at least in part, upon judgments made by non-
residents and nonnationals
of the countries.
The examples of indicators given here are only meant to illustrate the
way in which
development, health and social conditions can be measured.
SELF -ASSESSMENT EXERCISE
Study table 10 and write out the various development indicators for
each country.
i
Table 11: Population Health and Environment Data and Estimates for
the Countries
and Regions of the World
ii
Table 12: Population Health and Environment Data and Estimates for
the Countries
and Regions of the World
1
4.4 CONCLUSION
Indices are very important to the professional health worker because
they play a major

230
role in the measurement and assessment of population, health, and
development
activities.
Indicators and indices play a major role in the measurement and
assessment of
population health status. They are very important to the practicing
public health
professional.
4.5 SUMMARY
In this concluding unit, we explained the meaning of indices and stated
their uses. We
identified various population, health, and development indices.
4.6 TUTOR- MARKED ASSIGNMENT
i. State three (3) indices for each of – population, health and
development.
ii. Identify the broad areas and indicators selected under each to monitor
ICPD goals, in Table 14
4.7 REFERENCES/FURTHER READING
Abanobi, O. C. (2004). Quantitative Techniques in Public Health and
Community Medicine. Owerri, Nigeria: Colon Concept.
Aibor, M. S. & Olorunda, J. O. (2006). A Technical Handbook of
Environmental Health in the 21st Century for Professionals and
Students. Lagos: Divine Favour Publishers.
Ezeala-Harison, F. (1996). Economic Development: Theory and Policy
Applications. Amazon.com. Greenwood Publishing Group. 280
pages.
Lines, C. J. Bolwell, L. H. & Norman, M. (1997). Revise GCSE
Geography. London: Letts Educational.
National and Demographic Health Survey (2008).
Nnodu, V. C., Okoye, C. O. & Onwuka, S. U. (2008). Urban
Environmental Problems
in Nigeria. Nimo, Nigeria: Rex Charles & Patrick Limited.
Population Reference Bureau (2011). World Population Data Sheet.
PRB UNFPA (2011). The State of World Population.
2
4.8 POSSIBLE ANSWERS TO SELF-ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

231
• Major criteria for selecting health indices in demography
The basic criteria for selecting health indices in demography include:
data
availability, level of analysis, data quality, comprehensiveness,
specificity,
index calculation, and utility.
• Maternal mortality: number of maternal deaths due to puerperal
cases in
specified time period divide by the total number of live births in same
period
Infant mortality: number of deaths of children (0 – 1 year old) in
specified
time period divide by the total number of live births in same period
• Development indicators for countries (Fig. 10)
Gross National Production (GNP)
Life expectancy
Infant mortality
Human Development Index (HDI)

232