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Exercise 5

The document outlines Exercise 5 for the PHYS-C6370 course, focusing on the learning curve model for cost reductions in crystalline silicon solar cells and onshore wind power. Students are required to analyze statistical data, calculate progress ratios, and assess the impact of learning investments on technology costs. The exercise includes specific tasks such as fitting models to data and evaluating the implications of cost reductions in renewable energy technologies.

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22 views1 page

Exercise 5

The document outlines Exercise 5 for the PHYS-C6370 course, focusing on the learning curve model for cost reductions in crystalline silicon solar cells and onshore wind power. Students are required to analyze statistical data, calculate progress ratios, and assess the impact of learning investments on technology costs. The exercise includes specific tasks such as fitting models to data and evaluating the implications of cost reductions in renewable energy technologies.

Uploaded by

anhtri.journal
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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PHYS-C6370 Fundamentals of New Energy Sources (fall 2017)

Exercise 5

Submit your answers by Monday 16.10.2017 at 14:15 using MyCourses. The main assistant of this
exercise is Sami Jouttijärvi ([email protected]).

1. Demonstration

Learning from the development and implementation of a new technology reduces its price. Unit
price will thus decrease as the cumulative production volume increases. The plot of this relationship
is called the learning curve.

Provide a model describing the cost reductions of crystalline silicon (c-Si) solar cells by fitting a
learning curve (see lecture notes) to the statistical data in the “Exercise5_Demonstration.xlsx”
Excel file. Use the least squares method. Calculate the progress ratio 𝑝.

In the photovoltaic research community, there is a common phrase that a module cost of less than
$0.50/Wpeak is required for solar electricity to compete with fossil fuels. According to the learning
curve model, how much cumulative capacity is needed to achieve $0.50/W peak module price with
c-Si solar cell technology?

2. Home assignment

The cost 𝑐 of an energy technology (in $/Wpeak) in the present follows the learning curve:

𝑐(𝑉 ) = 𝐴𝑉 −𝛽 , 𝛽 = 2

where 𝑉 is the cumulative installed capacity (in Wpeak) and 𝐴 and 𝛽 are constants. In the beginning,
there is 1 MWpeak of installed capacity in total and the price is $100/Wpeak. This technology is in its
early stage and requires learning investments until the cost reduces down to $1/Wpeak.

a) What is the present value of the total learning investment required to reach this cost?
b) If it were possible to increase 𝛽 in the beginning by 10% by investing 1 million $, would
this be a wise decision? This is a one-time investment that has to be paid immediately.

Note that because the technology costs are present values, you should not use discounting.

3. Home assignment

Fit a learning curve to the statistical data from Excel file “Exercise5_onshore_EU.xlsx” for onshore
wind power in the EU using the least squares method. Calculate the value of the progress ratio 𝑝
during the 1990s. Similarly, calculate p for all the data. What seems to have happened in the
2000s? What could be the reason?

Attach a figure of the learning curve and the values of optimized parameters you have calculated.

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