Experiment – 6

Normal distribution, Poisson distribution

Aim: To understand Poisson distribution and Normal distribution using R functions
Introduction:
A discrete distribution is one in which the data can only take on certain values, for example integers.
For a discrete distribution, probabilities can be assigned to the values in the distribution. These
distributions model the probabilities of random variables that can have discrete values as outcomes.
Example: Binomial distribution, Poisson distribution

Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that is widely used in the field of finance. It
gives the probability that a given number of events will take place within a fixed time period. The
notation is written as X ~ Pois(λ), where λ>0. The pmf is given by the following formula:

𝑒−λ λ𝑥
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = , 𝑥 = 0,1,2, …
𝑥!
Procedure:
 Import the data set
 Determine the probabilities of the random variable using Poisson distribution in R
 Visualize the probability distribution using R functions

Problem:
A manufacturer of pins knows that 2% of his products are defective. If he sells pins in boxes of 20 and
find the number of boxes containing (i) at least 2 defective (ii) exactly 2 defective (iii) at most 2
defective pins in a consignment of 1000 boxes (iv) plot the distribution (v) E(x) (vi) Variance of X?

Codes and Results:

#Poisson Distribution
# number of trails
m=20
m

## [1] 20

# probability of success
ps=0.02
# poisson parameter
lambda=m*ps
lambda
## [1] 0.4
#at least 2 defectives
p1=sum(dpois(2:m,lambda))
p1

## [1] 0.06155194

# (i) number of boxes containing at least 2 defectives

round(1000*p1)

## [1] 62

#exactly 2 defectives
p2=dpois(2,lambda)
p2

## [1] 0.0536256

# (ii) number of boxes containing exactly 2 defectives

round(1000*p2)

## [1] 54

#at most 2 defectives

p3=sum(dpois(0:2, lambda))
p3

## [1] 0.9920737

# (iii) number of boxes containing at most 2 defectives

round(1000*p3)

## [1] 992

# (iv) plot the distribution

x1=0:m
px1=dpois(x1,lambda)
plot(x1,px1,type="h",xlab="values of x",ylab="Probability distribution of
x",main="Poisson distribution")
 #(v) E(x)
Ex1=weighted.mean(x1,px1)
Ex1

## [1] 0.4

# (vi) variance of x
Varx1=weighted.mean(x1*x1,px1)-(weighted.mean(x1 ,px1))^2
Varx1

## [1] 0.4

qpois( ) function is used to calculate the quantiles of a Poisson distribution. It takes two arguments:
the probability at which to evaluate the quantile and the mean of the Poisson distribution.
For example, to calculate the 95th percentile of a Poisson distribution with a mean of 2.5, you can use
the following code:
qpois(0.95, 2.5)
## [1] 5
rpois( ) function is used to generate random numbers from a Poisson distribution. It takes one
argument: the mean of the Poisson distribution.
rpois(q, lambda)
where, q: number of random numbers needed lambda: mean per interval
rpois(2, 3)
##[1] 4 1
rpois(6, 6)
##[1] 9 2 9 9 1 10
Normal Distribution
The Normal Distribution is defined by the probability density function for a continuous random variable
in a system. Let us say, f(x) is the probability density function and X is the random variable.
∞
f(𝑥) ≥ 0 for all 𝑥 ∈ (−∞, ∞) and ∫ −∞ f(𝑥)𝑑𝑥 = 1

The probability density function of normal or Gaussian distribution is given by;

Where,
x is the variable
μ is the mean
σ is the standard deviation

Procedure:
 Generating the data set
 Determine the probabilities of the random variable using Normal distribution in R
 Visualize the probability distribution using R functions

dnorm(x, mean = 0, sd = 1, log = FALSE)

pnorm(q, mean = 0, sd = 1, lower.tail = TRUE, log.p = FALSE)
qnorm(p, mean = 0, sd = 1, lower.tail = TRUE, log.p = FALSE)
rnorm(n, mean = 0, sd = 1)
Arguments
x, q vector of quantiles.
p vector of probabilities.
n number of observations. If length(n) > 1, the length is taken to be the number required.
mean vector of means.
sd vector of standard deviations
log, log.p logical; if TRUE, probabilities p are given as log(p).
lower.tail logical; if TRUE (default), probabilities are P[X ≤ x] otherwise, P[X > x].

Problem:
A company finds that the time taken by one of its engineers to complete or repair job has a normal
distribution with mean 20 minutes and S.D 5 minutes. State what proportion of jobs take:
i. Less than 15 minutes
ii. More than 25 minutes
iii. Between 15 and 25 minutes
iv. Plot the distribution
v. Table the distribution

Code and Results:

# Generating the data x
x=seq(0,40)
x

## [1] 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
23 24
## [26] 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

# find the density function of x

y=dnorm(x,mean=20,sd=5)
y

## [1] 2.676605e-05 5.838939e-05 1.223804e-04 2.464438e-04 4.768176e-04

## [6] 8.863697e-04 1.583090e-03 2.716594e-03 4.478906e-03 7.094919e-03
## [11] 1.079819e-02 1.579003e-02 2.218417e-02 2.994549e-02 3.883721e-02
## [16] 4.839414e-02 5.793831e-02 6.664492e-02 7.365403e-02 7.820854e-02
## [21] 7.978846e-02 7.820854e-02 7.365403e-02 6.664492e-02 5.793831e-02
## [26] 4.839414e-02 3.883721e-02 2.994549e-02 2.218417e-02 1.579003e-02
## [31] 1.079819e-02 7.094919e-03 4.478906e-03 2.716594e-03 1.583090e-03
## [36] 8.863697e-04 4.768176e-04 2.464438e-04 1.223804e-04 5.838939e-05
## [41] 2.676605e-05

# plot the normal distribution curve

plot(x,y,type='l')
# Proportion of jobs take less than 15 minutes
p1=pnorm(15,mean=20,sd=5)
p1
## [1] 0.1586553

x2=seq(0,15)
x2

## [1] 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

y2=dnorm(x2,mean=20,sd=5)
y2

## [1] 2.676605e-05 5.838939e-05 1.223804e-04 2.464438e-04 4.768176e-04

## [6] 8.863697e-04 1.583090e-03 2.716594e-03 4.478906e-03 7.094919e-03
## [11] 1.079819e-02 1.579003e-02 2.218417e-02 2.994549e-02 3.883721e-02
## [16] 4.839414e-02

polygon(c(0,x2,15),c(0,y2,0),col='yellow')

#Proportion of jobs take more than 25 minutes

p2=pnorm(40,mean=20,sd=5)-pnorm(25,mean=20,sd=5)
p2

## [1] 0.1586236

x1=seq(25,40)
x1

## [1] 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

y1=dnorm(x1,mean=20,sd=5)
y1

## [1] 4.839414e-02 3.883721e-02 2.994549e-02 2.218417e-02 1.579003e-02

## [6] 1.079819e-02 7.094919e-03 4.478906e-03 2.716594e-03 1.583090e-03
## [11] 8.863697e-04 4.768176e-04 2.464438e-04 1.223804e-04 5.838939e-05
## [16] 2.676605e-05

polygon(c(25,x1,40),c(0,y1,0),col='red')

#Proportion of jobs take between 15 and 25 minutes

p3=pnorm(25,mean=20,sd=5)-pnorm(15,mean=20,sd=5)
p3

## [1] 0.6826895

x3=seq(15,25)
x3

## [1] 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

y3=dnorm(x3,mean=20,sd=5)
 y3
## [1] 0.04839414 0.05793831 0.06664492 0.07365403 0.07820854 0.07978846
## [7] 0.07820854 0.07365403 0.06664492 0.05793831 0.04839414
polygon(c(15,x3,25),c(0,y3,0),col='green')

# Probability distribution
data.frame(p1,p2,p3)

## p1 p2 p3
## 1 0.1586553 0.1586236 0.6826895

The function qnorm(), which comes standard with R, aims to do the opposite: given an area, find the
boundary value that determines this area.
For example, suppose you want to find that 85th percentile of a normal distribution whose mean is 70
and whose standard deviation is 3.
qnorm(0.85,mean=70,sd=3)
## [1] 73.1093
The value 73.1093 is indeed the 85th percentile, in the sense that 85% of the values in a population
that is normally distributed with mean 70 and standard deviation 3 will lie below 73.1093. In other
words, if you were to pick a random member X from such a population, then
P( X < 73.1093)=0.85
It can be checked that this is correct by plugging 73.1093 into pnorm():
 pnorm(73.1093,,mean=70,sd=3)
The R function rnorm() is used for generating a vector of random numbers with a
normal distribution.
random_values <- rnorm(n = 25)
random_values
##[1] -0.53499657 -0.74971670 -0.22026809 1.54708162 0.39232568 -0.86422146
##[7] 0.36944164 0.49069040 -0.69812587 -0.13187081 -0.27770614 0.51801381
##[13] 0.57531833 0.11970355 0.84234079 1.28128005 0.92639749 1.20121957
##[19] 0.21812995 -0.02332619 1.06100364 0.55529338 0.45422197 -0.17755005
##[25] -1.44717709

Conclusion: Poisson distribution and Normal distribution have been explored using
R.