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HW 1

The document outlines the requirements for HW1 in the MECH411 Railway Management and Operations course for Spring 2025, including calculations for the f factor based on student IDs and tasks involving regression analysis, forecasting, and demand estimation. It emphasizes the use of Excel for data analysis and requires students to submit their findings in a Word document along with the Excel file. Additionally, it discusses the economic viability of establishing a train link between two cities based on projected passenger demand.

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abdul wahid
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17 views7 pages

HW 1

The document outlines the requirements for HW1 in the MECH411 Railway Management and Operations course for Spring 2025, including calculations for the f factor based on student IDs and tasks involving regression analysis, forecasting, and demand estimation. It emphasizes the use of Excel for data analysis and requires students to submit their findings in a Word document along with the Excel file. Additionally, it discusses the economic viability of establishing a train link between two cities based on projected passenger demand.

Uploaded by

abdul wahid
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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HW1 - MECH411 Railway Management and Operations, Spring 2025

Before answering make sure you modify the data based on f factor. Calculate f factor as f= max
[0.2, (Average of the last two digits of your ids)/100] , If you are a group

Last two digits of our ID’s: 82 71

f = max(0.2,((82+71/2)/100))

f = max(0.2,(76.5/100))

f = max(0.2,0.765)

f = 0.765

You MUST use f in adjusting question data as directed in the questions BEFORE answering them

Q1. (40 points) Using the following data set,


a. Construct a simple linear regression model to predict the train boardings as a function
of time in Mealbourne using MS excel (You can take time as 1,2,3,…)
b. Produce the error (residual) and fit plots, comment about error plot.

Years Residual Plot


40
Residuals

20
0
-200.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
-40
-60
Years

Years Line Fit Plot


Adjusted Board-

Adjusted Board-
ings(millions)

300
ings(millions)
200
Predicted Ad-
100 justed
0 Boardings(million
0 1 2 3 4 5 s)

Years

The fit plot (Years Line Fit Plot) displays how actual adjusted boardings compare with
predicted adjusted boardings throughout the years. The actual observed values appear
as blue dots on the graph while orange squares show the predicted values from the
model. A well-fitted model should demonstrate a strong correlation between predicted
values and actual values. The graph demonstrates a reasonable correlation between
actual and predicted values yet displays some deviation. The model operates well
when deviations are minor and randomly distributed but systematic deviations suggest
areas requiring improvement.
The Years Residual Plot visualizes the discrepancies between observed values and
their corresponding predicted values. The model's errors should be distributed
randomly around zero as shown by a lack of any distinct pattern in the residuals. The
residuals demonstrate a pattern because some values deviate substantially from zero.
The model appears to miss some data variations since its predictions do not account
for all patterns in the data. A visible pattern in the residuals suggests that the
predictive accuracy might be improved by using a different model or adding more
explanatory variables.

c. Comment on the accuracy of the regression model based on excel output.


The R-squared value, p-values, residuals, and standard error are some of the variables
from the Excel output that can be used to assess the correctness of the regression
model.
Adjusted and R-Squared R-squared:
With an R-squared of 0.61, the model accounts for 61% of the variation in adjusted
boardings.
The model may not be a perfect match and might be enhanced with further data or
additional predictor variables, as indicated by the Adjusted R-squared of 0.42, which
is less than R-squared.
Statistical Significance (F-Statistic & P-Value):
The regression coefficients' P-values (Years = 0.218452, Intercept = 0.31998) are
both more than 0.05, meaning that, at a 95% confidence level, neither the intercept
nor the slope are statistically significant. According to the significance F (0.218) and
F-statistic (3.138984), the overall model does not appear to be very important in
explaining the dependent variable.
The standard error is the estimate's standard error which is 42.27, the model's
predictions may differ much from the actual values. For a better match, the standard
error would be lower.
Evaluation of Residuals:
Although 61% of the variance in adjusted boardings can be explained by the model,
its large standard error, negligible p-values, and residual fluctuations raise the
possibility that it is not the most accurate prediction model. Though additional
adjustments, such adding more data points, other pertinent variables, or experimenting
with non-linear regression models, might increase the model's accuracy, the
regression equation can be used for preliminary approximations.

d. Produce forecast for the year 2013-2014


Equation we got is y = 33.49x+67.9
Since x is 31 for year 2013-2014
y = 1106.09

Before answering, Add 20xf to the years 89-90, 90-91, 91-92, and 2009-2010.
Q2. (40 points) Following is data for the last three years about the tonnage transported out
of a city by rail (given as excel file Hw1_seasonal_demand.xls ).
a. Plot the data and decide if we can assume data to be stationary and seasonal, why?
The patterns of the data shows peaks repeating pattern that’s we can assume it is

Seasonal vs Stationary
800.0

600.0
Demand

400.0

200.0

0.0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
month

seasonal but as demand is different thought out the time, that’s why this data isn’t
stationary.
b. Find the seasonality factor for each month (be careful about outliers).
c. Forecast for each month in next year.
d. Calculate MSE, MAD, and MAPE for your forecast.

Before answering Add 50xf to months 6, 7, 8, 17, and 18 to the data given in the excel
file.

Q3. (20 points) Assume that we have a city A and city B without a train link now. The
distance between the cities is 250 km and the population of the cities are 2.5+(0.5f) million
and 4+(-0.5f) million respectively. Based on past annual passenger demand for rail between
different cities with train link, we estimate the factor k as interval and this range is ( 0.0011,
0.0014). Using the gravity model estimate the annual rail passenger demand between the
cities, best and worst case. Would you establish the train link between the cites, why? (Make
sure you modify the data as given in the question)
Annual rail passenger demand for rail = Demand factor*(Population of City A* Population of
City B)/( Distance between the cities)^2
Population of City A = 2.5+(0.5*0.765) = 2.8825 million
Population of City B = 4-(0.5*0.765) = 3.6175 million

For best case


Annual rail passenger demand for rail = 0.0014*(2.8825*3.6175)/ (250)^2
Annual rail passenger demand for rail = 0.0000002335 million passengers per year
For worst case.
Annual rail passenger demand for rail = 0.0011*(2.8825*3.6175)/ (250)^2
Annual rail passenger demand for rail = 0.00000018348 million passengers per year
Conclusion: The demand is very low for a 250 km train link. Typically, train links are
economically viable for much higher passenger volumes (e.g., thousands or millions per
year).
we shouldn't establish the train link between City A and City B because the projected demand
is insufficient to justify the infrastructure and operational costs.

To be submitted:
- Your answers as MSWORD file.
- Imbed ALL the results and plots from excell into the word file- MSWORD file will be
graded
- Excel file used
- One of the group members can submit
- Late submission up to one day – 30% off the grade HW deserves. No submission after
one day

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