A Guide to Working with Probability

Teaching Approach

In Grade 11, Probability is done in the third term over a period of two weeks. The aspects
that are covered include theoretic probability and relative frequency; tree diagrams and
contingency tables; working with common fractions; decimals and percentages; weather
predictions and products making statements regarding probability.

Probability is a practical topic and learners should be involved in the learning. When
introducing let learners see the required outcome and the possible outcome. Let them do the
counting first before going theory. Let learners do the experimental probability first so that
the theoretical probability may be understood later. There are so many things that can be
used for experimental probability like the spinner; dice and any other game that can be
played by learners.

Mathematical literacy is a contextual subject, context that is applicable to the learners is to

be used. Make learners understand that probability affects them every day as they make
choices.

It is recommended that the videos in this series are watched in the order presented in this
guide. Summaries of the skills and contexts have been given in this document for each video
to enable easy access to the required material. You will find a selection of tasks covering the
required skills in the task video. These tasks have not been linked to the videos so that they
can be used without viewing them.
Video Summaries
Some videos have a ‘PAUSE’ moment, at which point the teacher or learner can choose to
pause the video and try to answer the question posed or calculate the answer to the problem
under discussion. Once the video starts again, the answer to the question or the right
answer to the calculation is given.

Mindset suggests a number of ways to use the video lessons. These include:
 Watch or show a lesson as an introduction to a lesson
 Watch of show a lesson after a lesson, as a summary or as a way of adding in some
interesting real-life applications or practical aspects
 Design a worksheet or set of questions about one video lesson. Then ask learners to
watch a video related to the lesson and to complete the worksheet or questions, either in
groups or individually
 Worksheets and questions based on video lessons can be used as short assessments or
exercises
 Ask learners to watch a particular video lesson for homework (in the school library or on
the website, depending on how the material is available) as preparation for the next days
lesson; if desired, learners can be given specific questions to answer in preparation for
the next day’s lesson

1. Probability Calculations
In this video, we define probability and how probability is expressed. We give the
difference between an event and an outcome and discuss the range for probability.

2. Two Way Tables

The focus of this video is contingency tables. It shows how to complete the tables and
use them to answer questions.

3. Probability in Games
This video focuses on the differences between theoretical probability and experimental
probability, otherwise known as relative frequency.

4. Probability in Real Life

This video relates probability to real life situations including weather and insurance
premiums.

5. Probability Tree Diagrams

This video explains how to draw and use tree diagrams where more than a single event
occurs.
 Resource Material

1. Probability Calculations http://www.free-training- A variety of online probability

tutorial.com/probability- games that can be analysed.
games.html
http://www.mathplanet.com/educa A brief explanation of probability
tion/pre-algebra/probability-and-
statistic/probability-of-events
2. Two Way Tables http://www.youtube.com/watch?v YouTube video that goes into the
=tvBIIw7HXIY basics of contingency tables.
http://cnx.org/content/m16835/late Problems that require contingency
st/ tables.
3. Probability in Games http://www.pearsonschool.com/liv Probability Pond game which
e/images/custom/envisionmath_c guides students through
a/games/pond.html understanding probability.
4. Probability in Real Life http://www.weathersa.co.za/web/ South African Weather Service
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v A YouTube clip on relative
=vtaMipvrgIU frequency involving a a bag with
30 stones and pulling them out of
the bag.
5. Tree Diagrams http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/p Simple, easy to understand
robability-tree-diagrams.html explanation of tree diagrams.
http://www.easycalculation.com/st Probability tree calculator:
atistics/probability-tree.php Probability tree allows us to
generate and list all the events
under one chart. Select the
number of main events, branch
events and then enter a label and
a probability for each event.
Task

Question 1
A box holds the following marbles: 9 red; 4 blue and 5 green. A marble is drawn at random.
1.1 Determine the probability of drawing green marble. Give your answer as a percentage.
1.2 Determine the probability of not drawing a blue marble
1.3 What is the probability of drawing a yellow marble?
1.4 Determine the probability of drawing a green or a red marble.

Question 2
The weather report predicts an 80% chance of rain.
2.1 Use one of the words in brackets to describe the likelihood that the following will happen:
(impossible; not likely; a small chance; 50% chance; likely; very likely; certain):
2.1.1 It will rain today
2.1.2 It will not rain today
2.2 Say whether the following is a true interpretation of the prediction. Answer with true or
false.
2.2.1 It will rain 80% of the 24 hours.
2.2.2 It will rain 80% of the places in the forecast area.
2.2.3 In the past when similar weather conditions existed, it rained in 80% of the cases.

Question 3
The Fondwo Ovulation Fertility Test strips have an accuracy of over 98% when taken in the
middle of the menstrual cycle.
3.1 According to the statistics, what is the probability that the fertility test is wrong? Give your
answer as a decimal
3.2 Is there any indication that the results may be more accurate than stated? Give a reason
for your answer.
3.3 Will the fertility test always give true results? Explain your answer.

Question 4
The table below shows the number of Grade 11 boys and girls at a school who take
Mathematics and Mathematical Literacy.
Subject
Gender Mathematics Mathematical literacy total
Boys 43 65
Girls 25 75
Total
4.1 Copy and complete the table.
4.2 What is the probability that a student chosen at random in Grade 11 will be a boy?
4.3 What is the probability that a student chosen at random in Grade 11 will take
Mathematical Literacy?
4.4 What is the probability that a student chosen at random in Grade 11 will be a boy who
takes Mathematics?
4.5 What is the probability that a student chosen at random in Grade 11 will not take
Mathematics?
Question 5
A married couple decided that they would have four children.
5.1 Draw a tree diagram that shows the possibilities of the children being boys or girls.
5.2 How many possible outcomes are there?
5.3 What is the probability of having four boys?
5.4 What is the probability of having four children of the same gender?
5.5 Determine the probability of having two boys and two girls.
5.6 Determine the probability of having at least one boy.
Task Answers

Question 1

Question 2

Question 3

Question 4
Question 5
Acknowledgements
Mindset Learn Executive Head Dylan Busa
Content Manager Classroom Resources Jenny Lamont
Content Coordinator Classroom Resources Helen Robertson
Content Administrator Agness Munthali
Content Developer Sihlobosenkosi Mpofu,
Content Reviewer Thandeka Tilana

Produced for Mindset Learn by Traffic

Facilities Manager Emma Wilcock
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Editor Tumelo Maloka
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Graphics Wayne Sanderson

Credits
Re-versioned portions of video footage sponsored by Telkom Foundation

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