IT 9626 Chapter 7th Expert Systems Fahim Siddiq 03336581412

Expert System: An expert system is a computerized system that attempts to

reproduce the decision-making process of an expert human being.
They are designed to try and replicate the judgement of a human that has expert
knowledge in a certain field. By doing this they can be used to replace or assist a
human expert.

Capabilities of Expert Systems:

The expert systems are capable of −
1. Advising
2. Instructing and assisting human in decision making
3. Demonstrating
4. Deriving a solution
5. Diagnosing
6. Explaining
7. Interpreting input
8. Predicting results
9. Justifying the conclusion
10.Suggesting alternative options to a problem

They are incapable of –

1. Substituting human decision makers
2. Possessing human capabilities
3. Producing accurate output for inadequate knowledge base
4. Refining their own knowledge

Building an expert system is known as knowledge engineering and it is composed

of three main components:
1. The Knowledge Base.
2. The Inference Engine.
3. The User Interface.
Knowledge Base:
The knowledge base is a database that allows the storage and retrieval of the
knowledge provided by a collection of experts. It contains knowledge about the
specific area for which the expert system can be used.
The developers of the expert system will interview a collection of experts to build
the database of knowledge. They will look to gain two types of knowledge from the
experts. The first is factual knowledge. This is knowledge that is widely shared. The
second type is heuristic knowledge. This is knowledge that is more personal and is
acquired through a range of experiences and reasoning.

Once the knowledge base is built, it can be used by the expert system to inform the
questions it needs to ask and assist in providing the results.

Rule Base:
The rules base is a set of rules that will be used to produce an output or decision
by the expert system. These rules are used by the inference engine as a base for
reasoning, to obtain a solution to a problem or a decision. Each rule will contain
two parts, the IF and the THEN. A rule can also have multiple IF parts that will be
joined together by Boolean operators including AND, and OR.

Inference Engine:
The inference engine is the part of the expert system that makes judgements and
reasoning using the knowledge base and user responses. It is designed to produce
reasoning based on a set of rules.

The inference engine is mostly a problem-solving tool. It organizes and controls

steps to solve the problem. To do this it often uses a chaining method. In a forward
chaining system, the expert system will take the data input and match it to the
knowledge and rules it contains. It will keep doing this until it can reach an end goal
or outcome. If the process starts with a known conclusion, but the path to it is
unknown, the chaining will work in reverse and this is called backward chaining.

User Interface:
The user interface is the way the user interacts with the expert system. They are
often graphical in nature and have a range of selection processes or typing methods
to allow the user to provide responses.
 Advantages Disadvantages
They provide answers to questions They do not have the addition of
that are outside a user’s knowledge common sense that humans have. This
and experience. means that their response can only be
a logical one
and cannot have a creative approach.
They can aid professionals in areas Errors in the knowledge base or
where their knowledge and experience inference engine will produce errors in
are a little the results. Therefore, they are only as
weaker. good as the data and rules, they are
given.
As they use a logical process, they are They are not able to automatically
consistent in the answers that they adapt to
give. changing environments. This requires
the knowledge base to be changed.
They can be accessed on a 24/7 basis. They are expensive to produce as they
require a great deal of time and effort
from experts and developers.
They can often reduce the time taken
to
solve a problem and the questioning
and reasoning process may be much
quicker than
an interaction between humans.
Using expert systems reached. may
mean that a less skilled workforce is
needed, as the
system will provide the knowledge and
experience they need.

How an Expert System is Made?

1- Experts in the field are interviewed.
2- Data is collected from these experts and it is put in a knowledge base.
3- The rule base is defined and an inference engine is created.
4- An explanation system is also developed.
5- The input and output screen/format are designed and created.
Different Scenarios Where Expert Systems Are Used

Using Expert System to Diagnose Patients:

Mineral Prospecting
Expert systems are used to help in making decisions on where to drill for a specific
mineral. They help geologists evaluate whether particular sites are likely to contain
the mineral or ore being searched for.

1. First of all, the geologist enters data about the types of rocks and geological
structure as well as the minerals to be found at the site under
consideration.
2. The expert system’s knowledge base will store models of successful drilling
sites and their associated minerals together with a rules base.
3. The inference engine then compares this data with the models in the
knowledge base using the IF…THEN rules in the rules base.
4. The system may well ask the geologist further questions through the user
interface and the resulting percentage probabilities of finding the mineral
at this site are produced.

Investment Analysis

Expert systems have been developed which act as assistants to financial advisors at
many banks. The financial advisor still makes the final decision, but the expert
system proves to be a very useful tool in helping the advisor make
recommendations to would-be investors. When making a decision, it is important
for the financial advisor to know four things about the investor:

» The amount the client wishes to invest

» What level of risk the investor is willing to take
» The desired rate of return
» How long the investor is willing to make the investment for.

1. The user interface asks questions in the everyday language of the investor
based on the above factors.
2. Depending on the answers to the questions, the system may ask further
questions through the user interface.
3. The database of facts will consist of all the information the bank has gathered
over the years about the performance and stability of different companies.
4. The rules in the rules base will have been originally created by an expert
investor.
 5. The inference engine will search the database of facts using the rules from
the rules base.
6. The expert system will then produce recommendations for purchasing stocks
or shares in a company, together with the reasons for recommending these
particular stocks and shares.

Financial Planning

Personal financial planning has become so complex that it is extremely difficult for
one human expert to deal with it. The result is a need for computerized expert
systems to assist in the process. There are so many variables to deal with that only
a few can be considered by one person in the time usually available.

1. Systems often involve the client completing a detailed questionnaire

regarding their personal and economic situation, including income, taxes
paid or due, investments, employee benefits, marital status, number of
dependants, as well as any future obligations such as retirement plans or
funding their children’s university education.
2. The inference engine analyses this information using the database of facts
and a very large number of rules in the system.
3. The database uses the results of books and articles which have been
published relating to personal financial planning as well as information
gathered from interviews with experts, such as professional financial
advisors.
4. A report would then be produced by the financial advisor as to the client’s
recommended financial plans. The report would be based on a combination
of a human expert’s insights and the use of the results of the expert system.
The report would serve as a financial action checklist for the client in order
to achieve their financial plans.

Insurance Planning

Life insurance is taken out against an individual’s life. Should the person die then
his or her relatives receive a fixed amount of money. Car insurance is when a person
insures their car against damage or theft. Property insurance involves safeguarding
against damage or destruction to property.
 1. In order to set up an expert system, insurance experts would be interviewed
by the knowledge engineer and all the policies that the banks currently offers
would be examined.
2. The results would then be used to create the knowledge base, including the
rules based on those used by the experts when arriving at their decision.
3. The process of calculating life or health insurance premiums (monthly
payments) involves the consideration of a number of factors, such as the
individual’s age, gender, whether or not they smoke, and their general
health.
4. An insurance expert system’s user interface will ask questions of the user and
based on their responses will, through the use of the inference engine,
compare these inputs with the facts in the knowledge base. Using the rules
which have been created, it will produce a recommendation for the cost of
the individual’s premium.
5. It may, of course, recommend that the application be rejected. Many banks
use human insurance consultants who will use the expert system’s
recommendations to make a final decision.

Car Engine Fault Diagnosis

Like any type of mechanical equipment, motor vehicle engines can develop faults.
When this happens, the driver has to seek the help of a mechanic (expert) who
knows a lot about vehicle engines. A systematic approach to the diagnosis of faults
is required, as the amount of knowledge required is so vast and there are many
steps which need to be followed in order to identify the fault.
1. The use of expert systems is often based on the expert system’s user
interface asking questions regarding the problems with the car and the
mechanic typing in the symptoms.
2. The expert system would then supply a list of possible causes of the problem
and the mechanic would decide which of the suggestions are most likely.
expert systems have been developed in which the readings from the sensors
are used by an inference engine, after comparison with those in the
knowledge base, to produce a list of possible faults.
3. Although, again, with this system, the mechanic makes the final decision.
Route Scheduling for Delivery Vehicles

For most manufacturing companies, the cost of transport is a major part of their
outgoings. Therefore, it is essential that companies use their transport vehicles as
efficiently as possible. For example, a company which manufactures washing
machines might have to deliver these washing machines to distribution points at
the cheapest cost. If the company is situated in a country which occupies a large
area, this makes the problem rather difficult. It could be that it has several
distribution points in different parts of the country, each with several delivery
vehicles, each of which may be a different size and may be available at different
times. The problem then becomes, how do you ensure that the available vehicles
provide coverage of all the distribution points but travel the least number of miles?

1. An expert system can have the locations of each distribution point in its
database of facts, together with the type and speed of the vehicle being
used, the total available time and perhaps other constraints such as the
topology or terrain of each road, whether it is mountainous or flat for
example.
2. The expert system would examine the orders for the day, total the weights
for the order for each location and the inference engine would match those
against the available types of vehicle.
3. The expert system would suggest an allocation of orders to each vehicle and
suggest a list of machines in reverse order so that each vehicle had the first
order loaded on to the vehicle last.
4. The company’s vehicle scheduler would take these suggestions from the
expert system and decide on the number of vehicles needed and would know
the total time to be taken.

Plant and Animal Identification

There are many hundreds of thousands of different species of plants and the
number of different species of animals runs into millions. Identification of
either plants or animals can prove difficult, particularly with rare species, but
it has become extremely important with climate change affecting the existence
of certain species.
 1. When considering plant or animal identification then, an expert system
would be helpful. The inference engine would use a series of IF…THEN rules.
Plants can be possibly divided into whether they are woody or herbaceous.
2. IF they are woody the system, through the user interface, could ask another
question, such as whether they have a single trunk, which would lead in turn
to other questions based on the shape/type of leaf and so on.
3. The database of facts, which would be interrogated by the inference engine,
would include the data regarding all knowledge about as many species as
possible.
4. This type of system would ask questions rather than inviting the expert to
type in details about the plant. Animal classification or identification follows
a similar pattern.

Backward Chaining
Backward chaining is often referred to as goal-driven. This is because it starts with
a goal or set of goals that basically establish which rules are to be followed. It works
backwards from the goals. As we said earlier, the rules in an expert system are
based on the IF…THEN construct. When an inference engine uses backward
chaining, it explores the rules the system has been given until it finds one which
has a THEN part that matches a required goal. If the IF part of that rule is known to
be true, then it is added to the list of goals.

Forward Chaining
We are now going to compare the above method of reasoning with forward
chaining. Forward chaining is often referred to as data-driven, because the data
entered into the system determines which rules are selected and used. When an
inference engine uses forward chaining, it explores the rules the system has been
given until it finds one which has an IF part that is true. It takes the THEN part to
add new facts. This process is repeated until a goal is achieved.