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Multiple Regression Model Based On Time, Price and Seasonality

The document presents regression analysis results for the sales of a 10-piece set over a period of time, including residual plots and line fit plots. Key statistics include a multiple R of 0.973563 and an R-squared value of 0.947825, indicating a strong correlation between time and sales. The analysis also includes coefficients for various months and their significance, along with predicted sales and residuals for each observation.

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smasakwa
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23 views32 pages

Multiple Regression Model Based On Time, Price and Seasonality

The document presents regression analysis results for the sales of a 10-piece set over a period of time, including residual plots and line fit plots. Key statistics include a multiple R of 0.973563 and an R-squared value of 0.947825, indicating a strong correlation between time and sales. The analysis also includes coefficients for various months and their significance, along with predicted sales and residuals for each observation.

Uploaded by

smasakwa
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 32

Time in month Residual Plot

250
200
150
100

Residuals
50
0
-50 0 5 10 15 20
-100
-150
-200
Time in month

Time in month Line Fit Plot


1 800
1 600
10-Piece Set sold units

1 400
1 200
1 000 10-Pie
800 Predict
600
400
200
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Time in month

Chart Title
1 800
1 600
1 400
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 14
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
h Residual Plot Multiple R 0.973563
R Square 0.947825
Adjusted R 0.890907
Standard E 131.3149
Observatio 24

ANOVA
15 20 25 30
df SS MS F
Regression 12 3445772 287147.7 16.65243
Residual 11 189679.5 17243.59
me in month Total 23 3635451

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value
Intercept 5050.946 809.9097 6.236431 6.381E-05
th Line Fit Plot Time in mo 14 5.020949 2.788318 0.01764
10-Piece Se-5.018996 0.819754 -6.122567 7.493E-05
Jan -94.5 115.4818 -0.818311 0.43055
Mar 45.5 114.1645 0.398548 0.697854
Apr 75.5 113.8328 0.663254 0.520825
10-Piece Set sold units May -56.5 113.722 -0.496826 0.629092
Predicted 10-Piece Set sold units Jun -221.5 113.8328 -1.945837 0.077666
Jul -145 114.1645 -1.270097 0.230259
Sept -22 115.4818 -0.190506 0.852383
Oct 199.5 125.8246 1.58554 0.141151
0 25 30 Nov 266 125.7244 2.115739 0.057997
Dec -112.5 125.8246 -0.894102 0.390411

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
rt Title
Observation
Predicted 10-Piece SetResiduals
sold units
1 202.5 16.5
2 311 -136
3 370.5 -64.5
4 414.5 -20.5
5 296.5 97.5
6 145.5 -14.5
7 236 -105
8 395 43
9 387 138
10 622.5 -9.5
11 703 -46
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 12 338.5 55.5
13 370.5 -16.5
14 479 227
15 538.5 64.5
16 582.5 20.5
17 464.5 -97.5
18 313.5 14.5
19 404 105
20 563 -134
21 555 -138
22 1543.5 9.5
23 1624 46
24 1259.5 -55.5
Significance F
2.429E-05

Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%


Upper 95,0%
3268.347 6833.545 3268.347 6833.545
2.948966 25.05103 2.948966 25.05103
-6.823262 -3.214731 -6.823262 -3.214731
-348.6738 159.6738 -348.6738 159.6738
-205.7744 296.7744 -205.7744 296.7744
-175.0443 326.0443 -175.0443 326.0443
-306.8004 193.8004 -306.8004 193.8004
-472.0443 29.04427 -472.0443 29.04427
-396.2744 106.2744 -396.2744 106.2744
-276.1738 232.1738 -276.1738 232.1738
-77.43812 476.4381 -77.43812 476.4381
-10.71754 542.7175 -10.71754 542.7175
-389.4381 164.4381 -389.4381 164.4381
10-Piece Set 10-Piece Set
month year Time in month
sold units sale price Jan Mar Apr
Jan-11 219 1 $949.98 1 0 0
Feb-11 175 2 $949.98 0 0 0
Mar-11 306 3 $949.98 0 1 0
Apr-11 394 4 $949.98 0 0 1
May-11 394 5 $949.98 0 0 0
Jun-11 131 6 $949.98 0 0 0
Jul-11 131 7 $949.98 0 0 0
Aug-11 438 8 $949.98 0 0 0
Sep-11 525 9 $949.98 0 0 0
Oct-11 613 10 $949.98 0 0 0
Nov-11 657 11 $949.98 0 0 0
Dec-11 394 12 $949.98 0 0 0
Jan-12 354 13 $949.98 1 0 0
Feb-12 706 14 $949.98 0 0 0
Mar-12 603 15 $949.98 0 1 0
Apr-12 603 16 $949.98 0 0 1
May-12 367 17 $949.98 0 0 0
Jun-12 328 18 $949.98 0 0 0
Jul-12 509 19 $949.98 0 0 0
Aug-12 429 20 $949.98 0 0 0
Sep-12 417 21 $949.98 0 0 0
Oct-12 1,553 22 $799.95 0 0 0
Nov-12 1,670 23 $799.95 0 0 0
Dec-12 1,204 24 $799.95 0 0 0
May Jun Jul Sept Oct Nov Dec SUMMARY OUTPUT
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Regression Statistics
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Multiple R 0.973563
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 R Square 0.947825
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Adjusted R 0.890907
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 Standard E 131.3149
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 Observatio 24
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 ANOVA
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 df SS
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 Regression 12 3445772
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Residual 11 189679.5
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 23 3635451
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coefficients
Standard Error
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Intercept 5050.946 809.9097
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Time in mo 14 5.020949
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 10-Piece Se-5.018996 0.819754
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 Jan -94.5 115.4818
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mar 45.5 114.1645
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 Apr 75.5 113.8328
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 May -56.5 113.722
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 Jun -221.5 113.8328
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Jul -145 114.1645
Sept -22 115.4818
Oct 199.5 125.8246
Nov 266 125.7244
Dec -112.5 125.8246

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
Predicted 10-Piece SetResiduals
sold units
1 202.5 16.5
2 311 -136
3 370.5 -64.5
4 414.5 -20.5
5 296.5 97.5
6 145.5 -14.5
7 236 -105
8 395 43
9 387 138
10 622.5 -9.5
11 703 -46
12 338.5 55.5
13 370.5 -16.5
14 479 227
15 538.5 64.5
16 582.5 20.5
17 464.5 -97.5
18 313.5 14.5
19 404 105
20 563 -134
21 555 -138
22 1543.5 9.5
23 1624 46
24 1259.5 -55.5
Time in month Residual Plot
250
200
150
100

Residuals
50
0
-50 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
-100
-150
MS F Significance F -200
287147.7 16.65243 2.429E-05 Time in month
17243.59

t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%


6.236431 6.381E-05 3268.347 6833.545 3268.347 6833.545
2.788318 0.01764 2.948966 25.05103 2.948966 25.05103
-6.122567 7.493E-05 -6.823262 -3.214731 -6.823262 -3.214731
-0.818311 0.43055 -348.6738 159.6738 -348.6738 159.6738
0.398548 0.697854 -205.7744 296.7744 -205.7744 296.7744
0.663254 0.520825 -175.0443 326.0443 -175.0443 326.0443
-0.496826 0.629092 -306.8004 193.8004 -306.8004 193.8004
-1.945837 0.077666 -472.0443 29.04427 -472.0443 29.04427
-1.270097 0.230259 -396.2744 106.2744 -396.2744 106.2744
-0.190506 0.852383 -276.1738 232.1738 -276.1738 232.1738
1.58554 0.141151 -77.43812 476.4381 -77.43812 476.4381
2.115739 0.057997 -10.71754 542.7175 -10.71754 542.7175
-0.894102 0.390411 -389.4381 164.4381 -389.4381 164.4381
Plot
10-Piece Set sale price Line Fit 10-Piec
Plot
10-Piece Set sold units
2 000 10-Piece Set sold
1 000 units 200
0 Predicted 10-Piece

Residuals
25 30 Set sold units 0
00 00 00 00
0. 0. 0. 0. -200.00
70 80 90 00 0
$ $ $ $1 75 80
10-Piece Set sale price $ $

Time

10-Piece Set sold units


2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
0
T
10-Piece Set sale price Re-
sidual Plot
200
Residuals

0
-200.00 .0
0
.0
0
.0
0
.0
0
.0
0
0 0 0 0 0 0
75 80 85 90 95 00
$ $ $ $ $ $1
10-Piece Set sale price

Time in month Line Fit Plot


10-Piece Set sold units

2 000
1 500 10-Piece Set sold
1 000 units
Predicted 10-Piece
500 Set sold units
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Time in month

Oct Line Fit Plot


10-Piece Set sold units

2 000
1 500 Nov Line F
ce Set sold units

1 000 2 000
500 1 500
0 1 000
0 500 1 2
Oct Line Fit Plot

10-Piece Set sold units


2 000
1 500 Nov Line F

10-Piece Set sold units


1 000 2 000
500 1 500 De

10-Piece Set sold units


0 1 000 2 000
0 500 1 1 500 2
0Oct 1 000
0 500 1
0Nov
0
Oct Line Fit Plot
Nov Line Fit Plot
10-Piece Set sold
units
ce Set sold units

2 000
Predicted 10-Piece
1 500 Set sold units10-Piece Set sold
1 000 units
1 2 Predicted 10-Piece
500 Set sold units
Oct Line Fit Plot
Nov Line Fit Plot
10-Piece Set sold
units
10-Piece Set sold units

2 000
1 500 Dec Line Fit Plot
Predicted 10-Piece
Set sold units10-Piece Set sold
units
10-Piece Set sold units

1 000 2 000
1 2 Predicted 10-Piece
500 1 500 Set sold units10-Piece Set sold
0Oct 1 000 units
0 1 2 Predicted 10-Piece
500 Set sold units
0Nov
0 1 2
Dec
10-Piece 10-Piece
Time in
month year Set sold Set sale
month
units price Jan Mar Apr May
Jan-11 219 1 $949.98 1 0 0 0
Feb-11 175 2 $949.98 0 0 0 0
Mar-11 306 3 $949.98 0 1 0 0
Apr-11 394 4 $949.98 0 0 1 0
May-11 394 5 $949.98 0 0 0 1
Jun-11 131 6 $949.98 0 0 0 0
Jul-11 131 7 $949.98 0 0 0 0
Aug-11 438 8 $949.98 0 0 0 0
Sep-11 525 9 $949.98 0 0 0 0
Oct-11 613 10 $949.98 0 0 0 0
Nov-11 657 11 $949.98 0 0 0 0
Dec-11 394 12 $949.98 0 0 0 0
Jan-12 354 13 $949.98 1 0 0 0
Feb-12 706 14 $949.98 0 0 0 0
Mar-12 603 15 $949.98 0 1 0 0
Apr-12 603 16 $949.98 0 0 1 0
May-12 367 17 $949.98 0 0 0 1
Jun-12 328 18 $949.98 0 0 0 0
Jul-12 509 19 $949.98 0 0 0 0
Aug-12 429 20 $949.98 0 0 0 0
Sep-12 417 21 $949.98 0 0 0 0
Oct-12 1,553 22 $799.95 0 0 0 0
Nov-12 1,670 23 $799.95 0 0 0 0
Dec-12 1,204 24 $799.95 0 0 0 0
Predicted
10-Piece
Set sold
units
Jan-13 25 $799.95 1 0 0 0
Feb-13 26 $799.95 0 0 0 0
Mar-13 27 $799.95 0 1 0 0
Apr-13 28 $799.95 0 0 1 0
May-13 29 $799.95 0 0 0 1
Jun-13 30 $799.95 0 0 0 0
Jul-13 31 $799.95 0 0 0 0
Aug-13 32 $799.95 0 0 0 0
Sep-13 33 $799.95 0 0 0 0
Oct-13 34 $799.95 0 0 0 0
Nov-13 35 $799.95 0 0 0 0
Dec-13 36 $799.95 0 0 0 0
Forecast Actual Abs. Error MAD
Jan-13 1069 MAPD
Feb-13 1536
Mar-13 1490
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Time i
Jun Jul Sept Oct Nov Dec 250
0 0 0 0 0 0 200
0 0 0 0 0 0 150
0 0 0 0 0 0 100

Residuals
50
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 -50 0 5
1 0 0 0 0 0 -100
-150
0 1 0 0 0 0 -200
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0
0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 Time
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 800
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 600

10-Piece Set sold units


0 0 0 0 0 0 1 400
1 200
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 000
1 0 0 0 0 0 800
600
0 1 0 0 0 0 400
0 0 0 0 0 0 200
0 0 1 0 0 0 0
0 5 10
0 0 0 1 0 0
Time in
0 0 0 0 1 0
0 0 0 0 0 1

0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 800
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 600
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 400
1 0 0 0 0 0 1 200
0 1 0 0 0 0 1 000
0 0 0 0 0 0
800
0 0 1 0 0 0
600
0 0 0 1 0 0
400
0 0 0 0 1 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 200
0
0 200 400 60
600
400
200
0
0 200 400 60

10-Piece
1 800
1 600
1 400

10-Piece Set sold units


1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
$ 750.00 $ 800.00 $8
10-
Time in month Residual Plot

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Time in month

Time in month Line Fit Plot


0
0
0
0
0 10-Piece Set sold units
0 Predicted 10-Piece Set sold units
0
0
0
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Time in month

Chart Title

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800


200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

10-Piece Set sale price Line Fit Plot

10-Piece Set sold


units

Predicted 10-
Piece Set sold
50.00 $ 800.00 $ 850.00 $ 900.00 $ 950.00 $1 000.00 units

10-Piece Set sale price


Jun Line Fit Plot
t sold units

2 000
1 500 10-Piece Set
1 000 units
Jun Line Fit Plot

10-Piece Set sold units


2 000
1 500 Jul Line Fit10-Piece
PlotSet
units

10-Piece Set sold units


1 000 2 000
500 1 500
Predicted 10
Set sold unit
Sept Line F

10-Piece Set sold units


0 1 000 2 000
0 500 1
1 500
2 Oct

10-Piece Set sold units


0Jun 1 000 2 000
0 500 1 2
1 500
0Jul 1 000
0 500 1
0Sept
0
O
ine Fit Plot
10-Piece Set sold
units
ine Fit Plot
Jul Line Fit10-Piece
PlotSet sold
units
Sept Line Fit Plot
Predicted 10-Piece
Set sold units10-Piece Set sold
units
2 000
1
1 500
2 Predicted 10-Piece
Set sold units10-Piece Set sold
Oct Line Fit Plot
10-Piece Set sold units

1 000 units
2 000
500 1
1 500
2 Predicted 10-Piece
Set sold units10-Piece Set sold
Nov Line Fit Plot
10-Piece Set sold units

0Jul 1 000 units


2 000
0 500 1
1 500
2 Predicted 10-Piece
Set sold units10-Piece Set sold
Dec Line Fit Plot
10-Piece Set sold units

0Sept 1 000 units


2 000
0 500 1 2 Predicted 10-Piece
1 500 Set sold units10-Piece Set sold
0Oct 1 000 units
0 500 1 2 Predicted 10-Piece
Set sold units
0Nov
0 1 2
Dec
10-Piece 10-Piece
Time in
month year Set sold Set sale
month
units price Jan Mar Apr
Jan-11 219 1 $949.98 1 0 0
Feb-11 175 2 $949.98 0 0 0
Mar-11 306 3 $949.98 0 1 0
Apr-11 394 4 $949.98 0 0 1
May-11 394 5 $949.98 0 0 0
Jun-11 131 6 $949.98 0 0 0
Jul-11 131 7 $949.98 0 0 0
Aug-11 438 8 $949.98 0 0 0
Sep-11 525 9 $949.98 0 0 0
Oct-11 613 10 $949.98 0 0 0
Nov-11 657 11 $949.98 0 0 0
Dec-11 394 12 $949.98 0 0 0
Jan-12 354 13 $949.98 1 0 0
Feb-12 706 14 $949.98 0 0 0
Mar-12 603 15 $949.98 0 1 0
Apr-12 603 16 $949.98 0 0 1
May-12 367 17 $949.98 0 0 0
Jun-12 328 18 $949.98 0 0 0
Jul-12 509 19 $949.98 0 0 0
Aug-12 429 20 $949.98 0 0 0
Sep-12 417 21 $949.98 0 0 0
Oct-12 1,553 22 $799.95 0 0 0
Nov-12 1,670 23 $799.95 0 0 0
Dec-12 1,204 24 $799.95 0 0 0
Predicted
10-Piece
Set sold
units
Jan-13 25 $799.95 1 0 0
Feb-13 26 $799.95 0 0 0
Mar-13 27 $799.95 0 1 0
Apr-13 28 $799.95 0 0 1
May-13 29 $799.95 0 0 0
Jun-13 30 $799.95 0 0 0
Jul-13 31 $799.95 0 0 0
Aug-13 32 $799.95 0 0 0
Sep-13 33 $799.95 0 0 0
Oct-13 34 $799.95 0 0 0
Nov-13 35 $799.95 0 0 0
Dec-13 36 $799.95 0 0 0
Forecast Actual Abs. Error MAD
Jan-13 1069 MAPD
Feb-13 1536
Mar-13 1490
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
May Jun Jul Sept Oct Nov Dec SUMMARY OUTPUT
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Regression Statistics
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Multiple R 0.973563
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 R Square 0.947825
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Adjusted R 0.890907
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 Standard E 131.3149
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 Observatio 24
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 ANOVA
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 df
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 Regression 12
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Residual 11
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 23
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coefficients
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Intercept 5050.946
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Time in mo 14
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 10-Piece Se-5.018996
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 Jan -94.5
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mar 45.5
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 Apr 75.5
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 May -56.5
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 Jun -221.5
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Jul -145

Sept -22
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oct 199.5
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nov 266
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dec -112.5
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 RESIDUAL OUTPUT
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 0 0 0Observation
Predicted 10-Piece Set sold units
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 202.5
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 311
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 370.5
4 414.5
5 296.5
6 145.5
7 236
8 395
9 387
10 622.5
11 703
12 338.5
13 370.5
14 479
15 538.5
16 582.5
17 464.5
18 313.5
19 404
20 563
21 555
22 1543.5
23 1624
24 1259.5
SS MS F Significance F
3445772 287147.7 16.65243 2.429E-05
189679.5 17243.59
3635451

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%


809.9097 6.236431 6.381E-05 3268.347 6833.545 3268.347 6833.545
5.020949 2.788318 0.01764 2.948966 25.05103 2.948966 25.05103
0.819754 -6.122567 7.493E-05 -6.823262 -3.214731 -6.823262 -3.214731
115.4818 -0.818311 0.43055 -348.6738 159.6738 -348.6738 159.6738
114.1645 0.398548 0.697854 -205.7744 296.7744 -205.7744 296.7744
113.8328 0.663254 0.520825 -175.0443 326.0443 -175.0443 326.0443
113.722 -0.496826 0.629092 -306.8004 193.8004 -306.8004 193.8004
113.8328 -1.945837 0.077666 -472.0443 29.04427 -472.0443 29.04427
114.1645 -1.270097 0.230259 -396.2744 106.2744 -396.2744 106.2744

115.4818 -0.190506 0.852383 -276.1738 232.1738 -276.1738 232.1738


125.8246 1.58554 0.141151 -77.43812 476.4381 -77.43812 476.4381
125.7244 2.115739 0.057997 -10.71754 542.7175 -10.71754 542.7175
125.8246 -0.894102 0.390411 -389.4381 164.4381 -389.4381 164.4381

Residuals
16.5
-136
-64.5
-20.5
97.5
-14.5
-105
43
138
-9.5
-46
55.5
-16.5
227
64.5
20.5
-97.5
14.5
105
-134
-138
9.5
46
-55.5
Jan-13 1291 25 $799.95 1 0 0 0 0 0
Feb-13 1400 26 $799.95 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mar-13 1459 27 $799.95 0 1 0 0 0 0
Apr-13 1503 28 $799.95 0 0 1 0 0 0
May-13 1385 29 $799.95 0 0 0 1 0 0
Jun-13 1234 30 $799.95 0 0 0 0 1 0
Jul-13 1325 31 $799.95 0 0 0 0 0 1
Aug-13 1484 32 $799.95 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep-13 1476 33 $799.95 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-13 1711 34 $799.95 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-13 1792 35 $799.95 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-13 1427 36 $799.95 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 Coefficients
0 0 0 0 Intercept 5050.95
0 0 0 0 Time in mo 14.00
0 0 0 0 10-Piece Se -5.02
0 0 0 0 Jan -94.50
0 0 0 0 Mar 45.50
0 0 0 0 Apr 75.50
0 0 0 0 May -56.50
1 0 0 0 Jun -221.50
0 1 0 0 Jul -145.00
0 0 1 0 Sept -22.00
0 0 0 1 Oct 199.50
Nov 266.00
Dec -112.50
Forecast Actual Abs. Error MAD 130
Jan-13 1292 1069 223 MAPD 9.5%
Feb-13 1400 1536 136
Mar-13 1460 1490 30
Apr-13 1504
May-13 1386
Jun-13 1235
Jul-13 1325
Aug-13 1484
Sep-13 1476
Oct-13 1712
Nov-13 1792
Dec-13 1428

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