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Quanti Midterm 1

The document provides an overview of probability, explaining its significance in understanding chance and making decisions in uncertain situations. It outlines types of probability, such as subjective and objective, and introduces key concepts including sample space, events, and basic properties of probabilities. Additionally, it covers rules for calculating probabilities involving 'AND' and 'OR' events, as well as counting principles like permutations and combinations.

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andreivelasco75
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11 views4 pages

Quanti Midterm 1

The document provides an overview of probability, explaining its significance in understanding chance and making decisions in uncertain situations. It outlines types of probability, such as subjective and objective, and introduces key concepts including sample space, events, and basic properties of probabilities. Additionally, it covers rules for calculating probabilities involving 'AND' and 'OR' events, as well as counting principles like permutations and combinations.

Uploaded by

andreivelasco75
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Velasco, Andrei Ian R.

Sample Space, Relationships Among


Events, and Rules of Probability
Probability
• Probability is used to describe the phenomenon of chance or randomness of events
occurring.
• It does not deal with guarantees but with the likelihood of an occurrence of an
event.
• Understanding probability helps in making thoughtful decisions in random and
unpredictable situations where multiple outcomes are possible.

Types of Probability

1. Subjective Probability (Theoretical/Classical Probability)


a. Based on past experience and judgment of the person to determine whether
a specific outcome is likely to occur.
b. No formal calculations; varies from person to person and contains a high
degree of personal bias.
c. Methods:
i. Opinion Polls – Help in determining subjective probabilities for
possible election returns and potential political candidates.
ii. Experience and Judgment – Relates to upbringing and past
observations.
iii. Delphi Method – Experts provide predictions about the future.
2. Objective Probability (Empirical/Experimental Probability)
a. Based on examining past data and using logical and mathematical equations
involving the data to determine the likelihood of an independent event
occurring.
Probability Formula

P(E)=n(E)n(S)P(E) = \frac{n(E)}{n(S)}P(E)=n(S)n(E)

Where:

• P(E) – Probability of an event occurring.


• n(E) – Number of favorable outcomes.
• n(S) – Sample space (set of all possible outcomes).

Definitions

• Experiment – A situation involving chance or probability that produces an event.


• Sample Space (S) – The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.
• Event (E) – One or more possible outcomes of a single trial of an experiment.
o Simple Event – A single outcome (e.g., getting a Head when a coin is
tossed).
o Compound Event – When two or more events occur in a sequence (e.g.,
getting a Head on the first coin toss and a Tail on the second).

Examples

Experiment Sample Space Event


Select a student in your The students in your
The set of students in your class
class class
Select a student and {red, black, brown, blond, red, black, brown,
observe hair color green, ...} blond, green, ...
Choose 2 cars at random The set of all collections of 2 Collections of 2 cars
from a fleet of 10 cars chosen from 10 chosen from 10

Basic Properties of Probabilities


1. Property 1 – The probability, P, of any event or state of nature occurring lies
between 0 and 1: 0≤P(E)≤10 \leq P(E) \leq 10≤P(E)≤1
2. Property 2 – The probability of an event will not be less than 0 because it is
impossible.
3. Property 3 – The probability of an event will not be more than 1 because 1 means
certainty.

Example Problems

• Chance of picking a number between 1 and 8?


o Sample Space: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8}
o Probability: 88=1\frac{8}{8} = 188 =1
• Chance of picking an even number from 1 to 8?
o Event: {2, 4, 6, 8}
o Probability: 48=12\frac{4}{8} = \frac{1}{2}84 =21
• Chance of picking the number 1?
o Probability: 18\frac{1}{8}81

Addition Rule of Probability (Events


Involving “OR”)
1. Mutually Exclusive (Special Addition Rule)
a. The probability that A or B will occur is the sum of the probability of each
event.
b. Formula: P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)P(A \text{ or } B) = P(A) + P(B)P(A or
B)=P(A)+P(B)
2. Not Mutually Exclusive (General Addition Rule)
a. The probability that A or B will occur is the sum of the probabilities of the two
events minus the probability that both will occur.
b. Formula: P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A and B)P(A \text{ or } B) = P(A) +
P(B) - P(A \text{ and } B)P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A and B)

Multiplication Rule of Probability (Events


Involving “AND”)
1. Independent Events (Special Multiplication Rule)
a. Two events are independent if the occurrence or nonoccurrence of one event
does not affect the likelihood of the other event occurring.
b. Formula: P(A and B)=P(A)×P(B)P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \times P(B)P(A
and B)=P(A)×P(B)
2. Dependent Events (General Multiplication Rule)
a. Two events are dependent if the occurrence of one event does affect the
likelihood that the other event will occur.
b. Formula: P(A and B)=P(A)×P(B∣A)P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \times
P(B|A)P(A and B)=P(A)×P(B∣A)

Counting Rules Useful in Probability


Multiplication Principle of Counting

• If event E1E_1E1 has n1n_1n1 ways and event E2E_2E2 has n2n_2n2 ways, the
total possible outcomes are: n1×n2n_1 \times n_2n1 ×n2
• Example:
o 3 main entrées × 4 fruits × 2 drinks = 24 meal combinations.

Permutation and Combination


Permutation (Ordered Selection)

• Arranging objects where order matters.


• Formula: P(n,r)=n!(n−r)!P(n, r) = \frac{n!}{(n - r)!}P(n,r)=(n−r)!n!
• Example: Probability that all 4 brown puppies are sold first out of 12 total puppies.

Combination (Unordered Selection)

• Selecting objects where order does not matter.


• Formula: C(n,r)=n!r!(n−r)!C(n, r) = \frac{n!}{r!(n - r)!}C(n,r)=r!(n−r)!n!
• Example: Probability of selecting Kevin and Phoebe for a duet among 20 singers.

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