Statistical Process Control & TOC
Statistical Process Control & TOC
Emmett
Observations Deviations
10 10 - 8.4 = 1.6
9 9 – 8.4 = 0.6
8 8 – 8.4 = -0.4
8 8 – 8.4 = -0.4
7 7 – 8.4 = -1.4 Jake
averages 8.4 0.0
Variability
Deviation = distance between
observations and the mean (or average)
Emmett
Observations Deviations
7 7 – 6.6 = 0.4 7
7 7 – 6.6 = 0.4 6
7 7 – 6.6 = 0.4 7
6 6 – 6.6 = -0.6 7
6 6 – 6.6 = -0.6
6 Jake
averages 6.6 0.0
Variability 8
7
10
Variance = average distance between
8
observations and the mean squared 9
Emmett
Emmett
Jake
Variability
The world tends to be bell-shaped
Process
mean
+/- 3 Sigma
+/- 6 Sigma
Statistical Process Control
The Control Process
Define
Measure
Compare
Evaluate
Correct
Monitor results
Variations and Control
Random variation: Natural variations in the output of
a process, created by countless minor factors
Assignable variation: A variation whose source can
be identified
Sampling Distribution
Sampling
distribution
Process
distribution
Mean
Normal Distribution
Standard deviation
99.74%
Control Limits
Sampling
distribution
Process
distribution
Mean
Lower Upper
control control
limit limit
SPC Errors
Type I error
Concluding a process is not in control when
it actually is.
Type II error
Concluding a process is in control when it is
not.
Type I Error
/2 /2
Mean
LCL
1 2 3 4
Sample number
Control Chart
Control Chart
Purpose: to monitor process output to see if
it is random
A time ordered plot representative sample
statistics obtained from an on going process
(e.g. sample means)
Upper and lower control limits define the
range of acceptable variation
Control Chart
Abnormal variation Out of
due to assignable sources control
UCL
Mean
Normal variation
due to chance
LCL
Abnormal variation
due to assignable sources
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Sample number
Control Charts in General
Are named according to the statistics
being plotted, i.e., X bar, R, p, and c
Have a center line that is the overall
average
Have limits above and below the center
line at ± 3 standard deviations (usually)
Upper Control Limit (UCL)
Center line
X bar chart X i
UCL X A2 R LCL X A2 R
R Charts
Center line is the grand mean (R bar)
Points are R
D3 and D4 values are tabled according
to n (sample size)
UCL D4 R LCL D3 R
Use of X bar & R charts
Charts are always used in tandem
Data is collected (20-25 samples)
Sample statistics are computed
All data are plotted on the 2 charts
Charts are examined for randomness
If random, then limits are used “forever”
Attribute Charts
c charts – used to
count defects in a n
c
constant sample c i 1
m
centerline
size
LCL c z c
UCL c z c
Attribute Charts
p charts – used to
track a proportion
(fraction) defective
m
p x n
x
p j 1
centerline
i
ij p
i
i 1
n
m nm
p(1 p ) p(1 p)
UCL p z LCL p z
n n
Control Charts for Variables
Mean control charts
Used to monitor the central tendency of a
process.
X bar charts
Range control charts
Used to monitor the process dispersion
R charts
Variables generate data that are measured.
Mean and Range Charts
(process mean is
shifting upward)
Sampling
Distribution
UCL
UCL
Does not
R-chart
detect shift
LCL
Mean and Range Charts
Sampling
Distribution (process variability is increasing)
UCL
UCL
A. Process variability
matches specifications
Lower Upper
Specification Specification
B. Process variability
Lower Upper
well within specifications Specification Specification
C. Process variability
exceeds specifications
Process Capability Ratio
specification width
Process capability ratio, Cp =
process width
57
Improving Process Capability
Simplify
Standardize
Mistake-proof
Upgrade equipment
Automate
Taguchi Loss Function
Traditional
cost function
Cost
Taguchi
cost function
The natural
-3σ -2σ - µ +1σ +2σ +3σ spread of the
1σ data is 6σ
Lower Upper
Spec Spec
Empirical Rule
-3 -2 -1 +1 +2 +3
68%
95%
99.7%
Gauges and
Measuring Instruments
Variable gauges
Fixed gauges
Coordinate measuring machine
Vision systems
Examples of Gauges
Metrology - Science of
Measurement
• Accuracy - closeness of agreement
between an observed value and a
standard
• Precision - closeness of agreement
between randomly selected individual
measurements
Repeatability and Reproducibility
Repeatability (equipment variation) –
variation in multiple measurements by
an individual using the same instrument.
Reproducibility (operator variation) -
variation in the same measuring
instrument used by different individuals
Repeatability and
Reproducibility Studies
Quantify and evaluate the capability of a
measurement system
Select m operators and n parts
Calibrate the measuring instrument
Randomly measure each part by each
operator for r trials
Compute key statistics to quantify
repeatability and reproducibility
Reliability and Reproducibility
Studies(2)
M easurement (M ) made by
Operators (i from 1 to m) on
Parts (j from 1 to n) in
Trials (k from 1 to r)
M ijk
xi j k average for each operator
nr
xD max ( xi ) min ( xi ) difference (range) of operator averages
i i
R ij max ( M ijk ) min ( M ijk ) range for each part for each operator
k k
Rij
Ri j average range for each operator
n
Ri
R i average range of all
m
Reliability and Reproducibility Studies(3)
n r
Repeatability and Reproducibility
R&R EV 2 AV 2
Number of Trials 2 3 4 5
Number of Operators 2 3 4 5
x 0.774
three operators, each taking
2
xmeasurement
3 0.829 on 10 parts in 2 separate
trials.
R1 0.037
R2 0.034
R3 0.017
Calibration
Calibration - comparing a measurement
device or system to one having a known
relationship to national standards
Traceability to national standards
maintained by NIST, National Institute of
Standards and Technology
Calibration Quiz
Constraint
Ropes
○ Limitations placed on production in upstream
operations
Necessary to prevent flooding the constraint
Do we really want or need another new theory?
Noreen, Smith, and Mackey, The Theory of Constraints and its Implecations for Management Accounting (North River Press, 1995)
How does TOC help companies?
Internal External
Material constraints
Process constraints
○ Insufficient materials
○ Machine time, etc.
Market constraints
Policy constraints
○ Insufficient demand
○ No overtime, etc.
Steps in the TOC Process
Decide how to exploit the constraint
Want it working at 100%
60 70 40 60
Rope Constraint
(Drum)
Lean: How DBR Supports it
Fundamentally, Don’t Build Until Needed
Advantages
Improves capacity decisions in the short-run
TOC Wisdom
Throughput
Inventory
Operating Expense
Throughput (“T”)
The rate at which the system generates
money through sales. (Or, the money
coming into the organization.)
Building inventory is not throughput
Only $ generated by the system get
counted; e.g., raw materials and
purchased parts are not throughput.
T = Selling Price - Materials
Inventory (“I”)
All the money the system has invested
in purchasing things which it intends to
sell.
NP
Financial Links (continued)
However, reducing Inventory levels does
also reduce some operating expenses.
If… Then...
Carrying
I Costs
Financial Links (continued)
And…
If… Carrying
Costs
Then...
NP ROI CF
Financial Links (continued)
Therefore, there is an indirect link…
If… Then…
I NP
And since we already saw that a reduction
in inventory causes a direct increase in
ROI and Cash Flow, we can see that
reducing inventory has a significant
financial impact.
Financial Links (continued)
Throughput, Inventory, and Operating
Expense are valuable operational
measures that can be used to guide our
decisions.
Increasing Throughput
Decreasing Inventory, or
All Three methods attack the underlying assumption that crated a problem related
to inventory levels. They ask: