STATISTICAL

ANALYSIS
&PROBABILITY

Statistics and
Probability
For Senior High School

Compiled by

Cunanan, A. S.
Other Discrete Probability Distributions

A. discrete Uniform Distribution, Bernoulli Distribution, Binomial Distribution

A.1. Discrete Uniform Distribution

A random variable has a discrete uniform distribution when all the values of
the random variable are equally alike, that is they have equal probabilities.

If the random variable x assumes the values x1, x2, x3, … xn, that are equally
1
alike, it has a discrete uniform distribution. The probability of any outcome xi is .
n

The formulas for mean, variance and standard deviation are as follows;

N +1
√
2
1. μ = 2. σ 2 =
N −1
3. σ = N 2−1
2 12 12

Example 1: When a fair die is thrown, the possible outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, & 6.
Each time the die is thrown, it can roll on any of these numbers. Since there are 6
1
numbers, the probability of a given score is . Therefore, we have a discrete
6
uniform distribution. The probabilities are equal as shown below.

1 1 1
P ( 1 )= P ( 2 )= P ( 3 )=
6 6 6

1 1 1
P ( 4 )= P ( 5 )= P ( 6 )=
6 6 6

The probability distribution of x is shown in the table below, where the random
variable x represents the outcomes.

x 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1 1 1 1 1
P(x)
6 6 6 6 6 6
The mean, variance and standard deviation can be calculated using the following
formulas.

N +1
1. μ = =3.5
2
2
N −1
2. σ 2 = = 2.9167
12
 3. σ =
√ N 2−1
12
= 1.7078

A.2. The Bernoulli Distribution

The Bernoulli distribution, named after the Swiss mathematician Jacob

Bernoulli, is a probability distribution of a random of a random variable x with only
two possible outcomes, 1 and 0, which is success or failure. If the probability of
success is p then the probability of failure is q and is equal to 1 – p.

The Bernoulli distribution with parameter p where 0 < p < 1, has the
following probability mass function.

P x ( x )=¿

This can also be written as follows;

P(X = x) = px (1 – p)1 – x, for x = 0,1

The formula for mean, variance and standard deviation of the Bernoulli
random variable x, are as follows

μ= p

σ 2=pq= p ( 1− p )

σ =√ pq=√ p(1− p)

Example 2: Find the probability of getting head in a single toss of a coin.

Solution:

Let x be the number of heads

Getting a head is a success and getting a tail is a failure.

Thus the probabilities are both 0.5

μ= p=0.5
2
σ =p (1−P)= 0.5(0.5) = 0.25

σ =√ 0.25=0.5

Example 3: Find the probability of getting a 4 in a single toss of a die.

Solution:

An outcome of 4 is a success and any other outcome is a failure.

1 1 5
Thus, the probability of a succession is and the probability of a failure is 1− =
6 6 6

1
μ= p=
6

1
∗5
2 6 5
σ =p (1−P )= =
6 36

σ=
√ 5
36
=0.3727

A.3. Binomial Probability Distribution

 A binomial experiment possesses the following properties:

1. The experiment consists of n repeated trials

2. Each trial results in two possible outcomes that may be classified as a
success or a failure
3. The probability of a success, denoted by p, remains the same from trial
to trial.
4. Each trial is independent of the previous trials.

A random variable X follows a binomial distribution, denoted by X Bi(n , x ), if the

pmf of X is given by:

()
n!
P ( x )= n p x qn− x = p x qn− x =n C x∗p x qn− x for x = 0, 1, 2, …, n
x x !(n−x)!

Where: n = number of binomial trials

x = number of success among n trials

p = probability of success in one of the n trials

q = probability of failure in one of the n trials

Example 4: Solve the following problem by using the binomial formula

1
a. If n = 5 and p = , find P(X=3)
5
b. If n = 4 and p = 0.2, find P(X=1)

Solution:

a. P ( x )= ( nx) p q
x n− x

( )( ) ( )
3
1 4 2
P ( 3 )= 5 =0.0512 or;
3 5 5

n! x n −x
P ( x )= p q
x !(n−x )!

( )( ) ( )( 1625 )=0.0512
3 2
5! 1 4 1
P ( 3 )= ∗ =5 C 3∗
( )
3 ! 5−3 ! 5 5 125

b. P ( 1 )=4 C 1(0.2)1 ( 0.8 )3=0.4096

Example 5: Find the probability of tossing a fair of coin four times, where there
appears (a) 4 heads (b) at least one head.

Solution:

p=0.5 q=0.5 h=4

X Bi(4 , 0.5)

Using the binomial formula,

()
n!
(a) P ( x )= n p x qn− x = p x qn− x
x x !(n−x)!

( )( ) ( )
4 0
1 1 1
P ( 4 heads ) =P ( 4 ) = 4 =
4 2 2 16

(b) The probability of having at least one head is equivalent to getting all the
sum of the probabilities from getting 1 head to getting 4 heads. So, using
the same formula used in (a) we have;

( )( ) ( )
1
1 1 3 1
P ( 1head )=P (1 )= 4 =
1 2 2 4

( )( ) ( )
2 2
1 1 3
P ( 2 heads ) =P ( 2 ) = 4 =
2 2 2 8

( )( ) ( )
3
1 1 1 1
P ( 3 heads )=P (3 )= 4 =
3 2 2 4

( )( ) ( )
4 0
1 1 1
P ( 4 heads ) =P ( 4 ) = 4 =
4 2 2 16

Therefore; the probability of getting at least one head is;

P ( at least 1 head )=P ( 1 ) + P ( 2 ) + P ( 3 )+ P (4)

1 3 1 1 15
¿ + + + =
4 8 4 16 16

Or P ( at least 1 head )=1−P(no head )

( )( ) ( )
0 4
1 1 15
P ( no head )=1− 4 =
0 2 2 16
 Example 6: Experience has shown that 1 for every 100 of the USB flash drives
produced by certain factory is defective. If a test is randomly done on 12 USB
flash drives, compute each of the following.

(a) P(exactly 1 is defective) let = to P(A)

(b) P(at most 2 are defective) let = to P(B)
(c) Determine the mean, variance and standard deviation

Solution:

1 99
P= n=12 q=1− p=
100 100

( )( ) ( ) =0.1074
1 11
( a ) P ( A )= 12 1 99
1 100 100

The probability of having at most two defectives is equal to having the sum of
probabilities of getting no defective up to getting 2 defectives.

( )( ) ( ) ( )( ) ( ) ( )( ) ( )
0 12 1 11 2 10
( b ) . P ( B )= 12 1 99
+ 12
1 99
+ 12
1 99
0 100 100 1 100 100 2 100 100

P ( B )=¿ 0.9998

12∗1 3
( c ) μ=np= =
100 25

12∗1
∗99
2 100
σ =npq= =0.1188
100

σ =√ npq=√ 0.1188=0.3447

A.4. Hypergeometric Probability Distribution

The hypergeometric distribution possesses the following properties:

1. A sample of size n is randomly selected without replacement from a

population of N items.
2. The k items in the population may be classified as success, and the N – k
items may be classified as failure.
A random variable x follows a hypergeometric distribution, denoted by
X Hyp ( n , N , k ) , if the pmf is given by:

P ( x )=
( x )( n−x ) k C x∗N −k C n−k
k N−k
= for x=0 ,1 , 2 , … ,n
(n )
N N Cn

Where:

N = population size

n = sample size

k = number of successes in the population

x = number of successes in the sample

Example 1: There are 6 white balls and 34 blue balls in the basket. If you draw 8
balls from the basket without replacement, what is the probability that exactly 3 of
the 8 balls are white?

Solution:

Treat drawing a white a ball as a success and drawing a blue ball as a failure.

k = 6, N = 40, n = 8 and x = 3, X Hyp(8 , 40 , 60)

P ( x )=
( x )( n−x )
k N−k

(nn)

P ( 3 )=
( )(
6 40−6
3 8−3 ) =
( 3 )( 5 )
6 34
=0.0724
(8) (8)
40 40

Example 2: Suppose there 15 universities in Luzon and 10 of them are located in

Metro Manila. If 3 universities are selected at random from the entire list, what is
the probability that one or more of the selected universities is located in Metro
Manila? Determine also the mean variance and standard deviation.

Solution:

N = 15, k = 10, n = 3, x = 1 or more, X Hyp(3 , 15 ,10)

The probability of selecting one or more university which is located in metro manila
is equivalent to selecting at least one university which is in Metro Manila.

Let the probability of selecting 1 or more university which is located in MM be P(A)

P ( A )=
( 1 )( 3−1 ) ( 2 )( 3−2 ) ( 3 )( 3−3 )
10 15−10
+
10 15−10
+
10 15−10

(3)
15
(3)
15
(153)

P ( A )=
( 1 )( 2) ( 2 )( 1 ) ( 3 )( 0)
10 5 + 10 5 + 10 5

( 153)
P ( A )=0.978

Alternate solution:

P ( x ≥ 1 )=1−P ( x=0 )=P( A)

P ( A )=1−
( 0 )(
10 15−10
3−0 ) =1−
( 0 )( 3 )
10 5
=0.978
(3)
15
(3)
15

The following formulas can be used in determining the mean, variance and standard
deviation of a hypergeometric probability distribution

μ=E ( X )=n ( Nk ) σ =Var ( X ) =n( Nk )( N−k

2
N )( N −1 )
N−n
σ =√ σ 2

μ=3 ( 1015 )=2 σ =3( 1015 )( 15−10

2
15 )( 15−1 )
15−3
=0.571 σ =√ 0.571=0.756

Exercises 1:

A. Compute the following probabilities using the hypergeometric formula

1. If N = 12, k = 8, and n = 5, find P(2)
2. If N = 14, k = 5, and n = 6, find P(3)
3. If N = 10, k = 7, and n = 4, find P(1)

B. Let X be a hypergeometric random variable with N = 15, n = 4 & k = 5.

Calculate:
 4. P(at most 3)
5. P(1 or more)
6. Mean
7. Variance

Mathinik

Find the mean, variance and standard deviation of a discrete random variable X
that follows a hypergeometric distribution with the following parameters.

8. N = 16, n = 6, and k = 8
9. N = 10, n = 5, and k = 4
10.N = 12, n = 4, and k = 3
11.N = 18, n = 5, and k = 10

Solve the following problems:

12. Suppose there are 20 call centers in MM and that 5 of them are located in
QC. If 3 call centers are selected at random from the list, what is the
probability that one or more of the selected call centers is located in QC?

13.Suppose there 20 math teachers in your school and that 6 of them have
master’s degree in math. If 4 teachers are selected at random from the
entire list, what is the probability that 2 of the selected has master’s
degree in math?

14.If 6 cards are to be chosen at random without replacement from a

standard deck of 52 playing cards, what is the probability that 4 will be
hearths?

15.A box contains 8 green marbles and 12 brown marbles. If 6 marbles are to
be chosen at random without replacement, what is the probability that 3
will be green?

A.5. Poisson probability Distribution

Another discrete random variable that has numerous practical application in

probability is the Poisson distribution which was develop by the French
mathematician Simon Dennis Poisson. The poisson distribution is employed when
occurrences (usually rare events such as accidents) are randomly distributed in
space and time.

A discrete random variable X follows a Poisson distribution denoted by X Po ( μ ) ,if it

has pmf given below:
 x −μ
μ e
P ( x )= x=1 , 2 ,3 , …
x!

Where:

μ=the averagenumber of ×that an event occors∈a certain period of time∨space

μ=E ( X )=np

e = 2.71828…

n = number of samples

p = probability of success

The mean, variance and standard deviation formulas are written as follows:

Mean = μ=E ( X )=np

Variance = μ

SD = √μ
One interesting feature of the Poisson distribution is that its mean
and variance are equal or the same.

Example 1: The average number of cell phones sold by a store at a shopping mall is
3 per day. What is the probability that exactly 4 cell phones will be sold tomorrow?

Solution:

X Po ( 3 )

μ=3 , x=4
x −μ 4 −3
μ e 3 e
P ( x )= = =0.168032
x1 4!

Example 2: the average number of accidents on a certain intersection in MM is two

per month.

(a) Find the probability that zero accident happen on that certain intersection
in a month period. P(0)
(b) Find the probability that at most 4 accidents occur on that intersection in
a 2-month period. P(X≤4)=P(A)
Solution:
0 −2
( ) 2 e
P 0= =0.135335
0!

P ( A )=P ( 0 )+ P ( 1 ) + P ( 2 ) + P (3 ) P+ P( 4)

¿ μ=2 ( 2 mos . )=4 , the number of accidents during a 2-month period.

0 −4 1 −4 2 −4 3 −4 4 −4
4 e 4 e 4 e 4 e 4 e
( )
P A= + + + +
0! 1! 2! 3! 4!

P ( A )=0.628837

Example 3: The number of days classes is suspended due to flood during rainy
season in Pampanga is 5. What is the probability that the classes will be suspended
in Pampanga for 6 days during the rainy seasons?

Solution:

μ=5 ,∧x=6
6 −5
5 e
P ( 6 )= =0.14622
6!

Exercises 2

A. Find the mean of the Poisson distribution given the following:

1. n = 2500 and p = 0.002 3. n = 7000 and p = 0.001
2. n = 5000 and p = 0.003 4. n = 2000 and p = 0.003

B. Let X be a Poisson random variable with mean = 3. Calculate the following

probabilities:
1. P(0) 4. P(1)
2. P(2) 5. P(3)
3. P(4) 6. P(5)

C. Solve the following problems:

1. Customers in a fast food restaurant arrive randomly on weekday at an
average of 3 customers per hour. What is the probability of having more
than 8 customers per day on a weekday?

2. Suppose that on the average, two persons for every 1000 people smoke a
cigarette. Find the probability that a random sample of 3000 people would
yield fewer than 5 persons who smoke cigarette?
3. At an SCTEX toll gate, an average of 3 cars arrives every 20 seconds.
What is the probability that exactly 4 cars will arrive in a 20 second
period?

4. In a certain intersection, an average of 4 traffic accidents occurs per

month. Find the probability that in a given month exactly 6 accidents will
occur?

5. The average number of computer sold by a computer store is 3 computers

per day. What is the probability that exactly 4 computers will be sold
tomorrow?

End of Module M1