Probability

Introduction

The sample space serves as an universal set for all questions concerned

with the experiment. a subset of sample space is associated with an event

and an event is associated with a subset of sample space.

Event
Any subset E of a sample space S is called an event.

Occurrence of an event
the event E of a sample space S is said to have occurred if the outcome

ω of the experiment is such that ω ∈ E. If the outcome ω is such that ω

∉ E, we say that the event E has not occurred.

Types of events

Impossible and Sure Events

The empty set φ and the sample space S describe events. In fact φ is

called an

impossible event and S, i.e., the whole sample space is called the sure
event.
 Simple Event

If an event E has only one sample point of a sample space, it is called a simple (or

elementary) event. In a sample space containing n distinct elements, there are

exactly n simple events.

Compound Event

If an event has more than one sample point, it is called a Compound

event.

Algebra of events
Complementary Event
For every event A, there corresponds another event A′ called the

complementary event to A. It is also called the event ‘not A’. Thus the

complementary event ‘not A’ to the event A is

A′ = {ω : ω ∈ S and ω ∉A} = S – A.

The Event ‘A or B’

When the sets A and B are two events associated with a sample space, then

‘A ∪ B’

is the event ‘either A or B or both’. This event ‘A ∪ B’ is also called ‘A or B’.

Therefore Event ‘A or B’ = A∪ B
{ω : ω=∈A or ω ∈ B}
 The Event ‘A and B’

We know that intersection of two sets A ∩ B is the set of those elements

which are common to both A and B. i.e., which belong to both ‘A and B’.

If A and B are two events, then the set A ∩ B denotes the event ‘A and B’.

A ∩ B = {ω : ω ∈ A and ω ∈ B}
Thus,

The Event ‘A but not B’

We know that A–B is the set of all those elements which are in A but not

in B. Therefore, the set A–B may denote the event ‘A but not B’. We know

that A – B = A ∩ B´

Mutually exclusive events

two events A and B are called mutually exclusive events if the occurrence of any
one of them excludes the occurrence of the other event, i.e., if they can not
occur

simultaneously.

Exhaustive events

if E1 , E2 , ..., En are n events of a sample space S and if

n
E1∪E2∪E3∪..........En = U Ei = S
i=1

then E1 , E2 , ...., En are called exhaustive events.

n
if Ei ∩ Ej = φ for i ≠ j i.e., events Ei and Ej are pairwise disjoint and ∪ E =S
i=1

S , then events E1 , E2 , ..., En are called mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.
Let S be the sample space of a random experiment. The probability P is a

real valued function whose domain is the power set of S and range is the

interval [0,1] satisfying the following axioms

(i) For any event E, P (E) ≥ 0 (ii) P (S) = 1 (iii)If E and F are mutually

exclusive events, then P(E) ∪ (F) = P(E) + P(F).

It follows from (iii) that P(φ) = 0.

Axiomatic definition of probability

Let S be a sample space containing outcomes ω1 , ω2 , ..., ωn i.e.
S = {ω1 , ω2 , ..., ωn }

, axiomatic definition of probability that (i) 0 ≤ P (ωi ) ≤ 1

It follows from the

for each ωi ∈ S (ii) P (ω1 ) + P (ω2 ) + ... + P (ωn ) = 1 (iii) For any event A,

P(A) = ∑ P(ωi ), ωi ∈ A.

NOTE:
It may be noted that the singleton {ωi } is called elementary event and

for notational convenience, we write P(ωi ) for P({ωi }).

 Probability of an event

S be the sample space, E be the event, and n(s)= n and

n(E)=m Then the probability of the event= P(E)

Odd number of outcomes in favor of the event: m : (n-m) Odd number of

outcomes against the event : (n-m) : m Probability of the event that does

not occur or take place : P(A)= 1- P(A)

Probabilities of equally likely outcomes

Let a sample space of an experiment be S = {ω1 , ω2 ,..., ωn }. Let all the

outcomes are equally likely to occur, i.e., the chance of occurrence of each

simple event must be same. i.e. P(ωi ) = p, for all ωi ∈ S where 0 ≤ p ≤ 1

np = 1 i.e., p = 1/n

Probability of the event ‘A or B’

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P (B) – P (A ∩ B)

If A and B are disjoint sets, i.e., they are mutually exclusive events,

then
A ∩ B = φ Therefore P(A∩B)=P( φ )=0 Thus, for mutually
exclusive

events A and B, we have P ( A ∪ B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B) ,

Probability of event ‘not A’
P(A′) = P(not A) = 1 – P(A)

Example

A coin is tossed three times, consider the following events. A: ‘No head

appears’, B: ‘Exactly one head appears’ and C: ‘Atleast two heads appear’.

Do they form a set of mutually exclusive and exhaustive events?

Solution

The sample space of the experiment is

S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}

and A = {TTT}, B = {HTT, THT, TTH}, C = {HHT, HTH, THH, HHH}

Now,

A ∪ B ∪ C = {TTT, HTT, THT, TTH, HHT, HTH, THH, HHH} = S

Therefore, A, B and C are exhaustive events.

Also, A ∩ B = φ, A ∩ C = φ and B ∩ C = φ Therefore, the events are

pair-wise disjoint, i.e., they are mutually exclusive. Hence, A, B and C

form a set of mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.

Example

One card is drawn from a well shuffled deck of 52 cards. If each

outcome is equally likely, calculate the probability that the card will be

(i) a diamond

(ii) not an ace

(iii) a black card (i.e., a club or, a spade)

(iv) not a diamond

(v) not a black card.

Solution
When a card is drawn from a well shuffled deck of 52 cards, the

number of possible outcomes is 52.

(i) Let A be the event 'the card drawn is a diamond' Clearly the

number of elements in set A is 13.

Therefore, P(A) =13/52

=1/4

i.e. probability of a diamond card = 1/4

(ii) We assume that the event ‘Card drawn is an ace’ is

Therefore ‘Card drawn is not an ace’ should be B′.

We know that P(B′) = 1 – P(B) = 52 -4

= 48
(iii) Let C denote the event ‘card drawn is black card’ Therefore,

number of elements in the set C = 26

i.e. P(C) =26/52

=1/2

(iv) We assumed in (i) above that A is the event ‘card drawn is a

diamond’, so the event ‘card drawn is not a diamond’ may be

denoted as A' or ‘not A’

Now P(not A) = 1 – P(A) = 1- 1 =3

_ _
4 4

(v) The event ‘card drawn is not a black card’ may be denoted as C or ‘not C’.
′
We know that P(not C) = 1 – P(C) = 1 -1/2

Therefore, probability of not a black card = 1/2

Example

Two students Anil and Ashima appeared in an examination. The probability

that Anil will qualify the examination is 0.05 and that Ashima will qualify the

examination is 0.10. The probability that both will qualify the examination is

0.02. Find the probability tha

(a) Both Anil and Ashima will not qualify the examination.

(b) Atleast one of them will not qualify the examination and

(c) Only one of them will qualify the examination.

 Solution

(a) Both Anil and Ashima will not qualify the examination.
 (b) Atleast one of them will not qualify the examination and

(c) Only one of them will qualify the examination.

Question -: describe the sample space for the indicated experiment.

1. A coin is tossed three times

Solution:-

Since either coin can turn up Head (H) or Tail (T), the possible outcomes may be

When 1 coin is tossed once the sample space = 2

Then,

The coin is tossed 3 times the sample space = 23 = 8

Thus, the sample space is S = {HHH, THH, HTH, HHT, TTT, HTT, THT, TTH}
Question -: Describe The Sample Space A die is thrown two times.

Solution:-

Let us assume that 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 are the possible outcomes when the die is thrown.

Then, the total number of the sample space = (6 × 6)

= 36

Thus, the sample space is

S={(1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6),(3,1),(3,2),(3,3)(3,4),(3,5),

(3,6),(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6),(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6),(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),

(6,5),(6,6)}

Question -: 2 boys and 2 girls are in Room X, and 1 boy and 3 girls are in Room Y.
Specify the sample space for the experiment in which a room is selected and then a
person.
Solution:-
From the question, it is given that
2 boys and 2 girls are in Room X
1 boy and 3 girls in Room Y
Let us assume b1, b2 and g1, g2 be 2 boys and 2 girls in Room X.
And also, assume b3 and g3, g4, g5 be 1 boy and 3 girls in Room Y.
The problem is solved by dividing it into two cases.
Case 1: Room X is selected
Sample Space Sx = {(X,b1),(X,b2),(X,g1),(X,g2)}
Case 2: Room Y is selected
Sample Space Sy ={(Y,b3),(Y,g3),(Y,g4),(Y,g5)}
The overall sample space
S={(X,b1),(X,b2),(X,g1),(X,g2),(Y,b3),(Y,g3),(Y,g4),(Y,g5)}
Question - : If P(A) is ⅗. Find P (not A)

Solution

Given that: P(A) = ⅗

To find P(not A) = 1 – P(A)
P (not A) = 1- ⅗
= (5-3)/5
=⅖
Therefore, P(not A) = ⅖.

Question -: A pack of 50 tickets is numbered from 1 to 50 and is shuffled. Two

tickets are drawn at random. Find the probability that (i) both the tickets drawn
bear prime numbers (ii) Neither of the tickets drawn bear prime numbers.
Solution:

The total number of tickets = 50

Prime numbers from 1 to 50 are 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, 37, 41, 43, and 47.
The total number of prime numbers between 1 and 50 is 15.
(i) Probability that both tickets are drawn bears prime numbers:
P(Both tickets bearing prime numbers ) = 15C2 / 50 C2
= 3/35
Hence, the probability that both tickets are drawn bear prime numbers is 3/35.
(ii) Probability that neither of the tickets drawn bears prime numbers:
P ( Neither of the tickets bearing prime numbers) = 35C2 / 50C2
= 17/35.
Therefore, the probability that neither of the tickets drawn bears a prime number
is 17/35.
 Question -: One die of red colour, one of white colour and one of blue colour

are placed in a bag. One die is selected at random and rolled, its colour and

the number on its uppermost face is noted. Describe the sample space.

Solution:-

Let us assume that 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 are the possible numbers that come when

the die is thrown.

And also, assume die of red colour be ‘R’, die of white colour be ‘W’, die of blue

colour be ‘B’.

So, the total number of sample space = (6 × 3) = 18

The sample space of the event is

S={(R,1),(R,2),(R,3),(R,4),(R,5),(R,6),(W,1),(W,2),(W,3),(W,4),(W,5),(W,6) (B,1),(B,2),

(B,3),(B,4),(B,5),(B,6)}

Example
An experiment consists of recording boy–girl composition of families
with 2 children.
(i) What is the sample space if we are interested in knowing whether
it is a boy or girl in the order of their births?
(ii) What is the sample space if we are interested in the number of
girls in the family?

Solution
 Let us assume the boy be ‘B’ and the girl be ‘G’.
(i) The sample space if we are interested in knowing whether it is a
boy or girl in the order of their births, S = {GG, BB, GB, BG}
(ii) The sample space if we are interested in the number of girls in
the family when there are two children in the family then
Sample space S = {2, 1, 0}

Example

A box contains 1 red and 3 identical white balls. Two balls are drawn
at random in succession without replacement. Write the sample
space for this experiment.

Solution
From the question, it is given that a box contains 1 red and 3 identical
white balls.
Let us assume ‘R’ be the event of the red ball being drawn, and ‘W’ be
the event of the white ball being drawn.
Given in the question that white balls are identical; therefore, the
event of drawing any one of the three white balls is the same.
Then, total number of sample space = (2 – 1)2= 3
∴Sample space S = {WW, WR, RW}
Example

The numbers 1, 2, 3 and 4 are written separately on four slips of

paper. The slips are put in a box and mixed thoroughly. A person
draws two slips from the box, one after the other, without
replacement. Describe the sample space for the experiment

Solution

It is given that 1, 2, 3, and 4 are the numbers written on the four slips.
When two slips are drawn without replacement, the first event has 4
possible outcomes, and the second event has 3 possible outcomes
because 1 slip is already picked.
Therefore, the total number of possible outcomes = (4 × 3) = 12
Thus, the sample space is,
S={(1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (2,1), (2,3), (2,4), (3,1), (3,2), (3,4), (4,1), (4,2), (4,3)}