POISSON DISTRIBUTION

POISSON DISTRIBUTION
SYNOPSIS W.E.1:-In a poisson distribution
P(X=0)=P(X=1)=k, then the value of k is
In Binomial distribution we know that Sol: Given that, P  X  0   P  X  1
P  X  x   n C x p x q n  x ; x  0,1, 2,3,......n e   0 e   1
p  0, q  0 & p  q  1    1
0 1
In this, let
 k = P(X = 1) = e 1 = 1/e
 The number of independent bernoullian trials n is
indefinitely large i.e., n   . W.E.2:- If X is a poisson variate and
 The probability of success p is infinitely small i.e., P(X = 1) = 2P(X = 2) then P(X = 3) is(E-2013)
Sol :Given that, P(X = 1) = 2P(X = 2)
p0.
 Even though n   , p  0 , np    m , a e  1 e  2 e1.13 1
2    1 ; P(X = 3) = =
constant always. This constant must be a finite
1 2 3 6e

e   x W.E.3:- If m is the variance of P.D., then sum of

Cx p x qn x 
x 
n
positive number. Then nlim

, 0 the terms in odd places is
and this is called as poisson distribution. Sol: P  X  0   P  X  2   P  X  4   .... ,
e   x  0 2 4 
 The P.D. is P  X  x   x ; x  0,1, 2,3, 4,......  e      .....  where   m
 0! 2! 4! 
Here  is called the parameter of P.D. It was
 m0 m2 m 4 
derived in 1837 by a French mathematician by  e m     .....  = e  m coshm
name S.D. Poisson.  0! 2! 4! 
 A discrete random variable X is said to follow W.E.4:- A factory produces lazor blades and 1 in
poisson distribution with parameter  if its 500 blades is estimated to be defective. The
probability mass function is given by blades are supplied in packets of 10. In a
e 
 x consignment of 10,000 packets, using poisson
P  X  x  ; x  0,1, 2,3,...... distribution, approximately the number of
x
packets which contain no defective blades is
The Characteristics of P.D. Sol: Let X be the number of defective blades in a lot of
 The mean of random poisson variate (r.p.v) X is 10 blades. The probability that a blade to be
 . i.e., x    np . defective = 1/500.
 The variance of r.p.v. X is  . i.e.,  2   . The average number of defective blades in a lot of
1 1
 The S.D. of r.p.v. X is  . i.e.,    . 10 = 10    0.02
500 50
 In poisson distribution mean and variance are equal.
Poission parameter is  = 0.02
i.e., x   2   .
e  0 0.02
 The expected frequency or the theoretical P (no defective blades in a lot of 10) = 0  e
frequency of x successes when an experiment is
repeated N times in P.D. is given by 0.02 0.0004 0.000008
= 1 1  2  3
 .........
f  X  x   N  P ( X  x)
= 1– 0.02 + 0.0002 = 0.9802
N  e   x
 ; x  0,1, 2,3,...... Therefore the number of packets in a consignment
x
of 10000 packets which contain no defective blade
and this is called as poisson frequency distribution. = 10000 × 0.9802 = 9802

147
 POISSON DISTRIBUTION

C.U.Q. LEVEL-I (C.W)

1. The probability of r successes in case of poisson 1. If the mean of P.D. is 5, then the variance of
distribution is the same distribution is
1) 25 2) 10 3) 5 4) 15
e m  m em e m e m m r
1) 2)  3) 4) 2. For a poisson variate X, P(X = 1) = P(X =2).
  r Then P(X = 5) is (EAM - 2010)
2. The variance of P.D. with parameter  is
1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2
1 1 1) e 2) e 3) e 4) e
15 15 15 15
1)  2)  3) 4)
  3. For a poisson variate X, P(X = 2) = P(X =3),
3. If x and  are mean and variance of poisson
2
the variance of X is
distribution then 1) 1 2) 2 3) 3 4) 4
1) x   2 2) x   2 3) x   2 4) x   2 =1 4. A random variable X has Poisson distribution
4. If m is the variance of P.D., then the ratio of with mean 2. Then P  X  1.5  equals
sum of the terms in odd places to the sum of
the terms in even places is 3 3
1) 2 / e 2 2) 0 2 3) 1 
4) 2
1) e m cosh m 2) e m sinh m 3) coth m 4) tanh m e e
5. The number of persons joining a cinema ticket 5. If X is a random poisson variate such that
counter in a minute has poisson distribution E  X 2   6 , then E  X  
with parameter 6. The probability that two or 1) -3 2) 2 3) -3 & 2 4) -2
more persons join the queue in a minute is 6. If X is a random poisson variate such that
1) 1– 7.e–6 2) 1– 6e–6 3) 1– 5.e–6 4) 1– 4.e–6
6. Number of accidents on a national highway   P  X  1  P  X  2 , then p(X=4)= (Eamcet
each day is a poisson variable with an average 2008, 2012)
of three accidents per day. The probability that 
no accidents will occur on a given day is 1) 2 2) 3)  e2 4)  e2
3
1) 0.0398 2) 0.0498 3) 0.05984) 0.0698 7. If in a poisson frequency distribution, the
C.U.Q - KEY 2
frequency of 3 successes is times the
3
1) 4 2) 1 3) 3 4) 3 5) 1 6) 2
frequency of 4 successes, the mean of the
C.U.Q - HINTS distribution is
2 1
1. P( x  r ) 1) 2) 3) 6 4) 6
3 3
2. Mean = 
8. If for a poisson distribution P(X=0)=0.2, the
3. Mean > variance
variance of the distribution is
P  X  0   P  X  2   P  X  4   .... 1) 5 2) log10 5 3) log e 5 4) log 5 e
4. P  X  1  P  X  3  P  X  5  .... = 9. If X is a poisson variate such that
e  m cosh m P  X  2  9P  X  4  90P  X  6 , the mean of X
 coth m
e  m sinh m is
5. P (X  2) = 1–  P( X  0)  P( X  1) 1) 3 2) 2 3) 1 4) 0
10. If X is a poisson variate such that
  e   0 e  1 
= 1    P  X  0  0.1, P  X  2  0.2 then the parameter
 0 1 
 is
6. X = number of accidents per day 1) 2 2) 4 3) 5 4) 3
Range of X = {0, 1, 2, ....}
Given average number of accidents per day =   3 LEVEL-I (C.W.) - KEY
Probability that there is no accident on a given day 1) 3 2) 4 3) 3 4) 3 5) 2
= P(X = 0) = e 
= e–3 = 0.0498 6) 2 7) 3 8) 3 9) 3 10) 1
148
 POISSON DISTRIBUTION

LEVEL-I (C.W.) - HINTS 6. If X is a poisson variable such that

2
1. Mean = Variance P  X  2  P  X  1 then p(x=3) is
3
e  e  2
2.    2 4 64 3
4
1 2 1) e 3 2) e
162
e  5 e 2 25 4 2 3 3
P(X = 5) = 5
= 5
= e 3) e 4 4) e 4
15
7. If X is a random poisson variate such that
e    2 e   3
3.   3 P  X  0 
1
2! 3! , then the variance of the same
e
4. P  X  1.5   1   P  X  0   P  X  1  distribution is
1) 1 2) 2
E  X 2   x i P  X  x i  ; E  X 2   2  2
2
5. 3) 3 4) 4
 2    6 (where mean & variance both are equal 8. In a poisson distribution, the probability
to  ) P(X=0) is twice the probability P(X=1). The

mean of the distribution is
6. e 2    2
2 1 1 1 3
1) 2) 3) 4)
4 3 2 4
2
7. P  X  3  P  X  4 ;   6 9. If a random variable X follows a P.D. such that
3
P  X  1  P  X  2 , then P(X=0)=
8. P  X  0   0.2 ;   log e 5
1 1
e  . K 1) e2 2) 3) 4) e
9. using P  X  K   ,    0 e2 e
K!

P  X  2 2
LEVEL-I (H.W.) - KEY
10. P  X  0  
1 1) 2 2) 4 3) 2 4) 2
5) 3 6) 2 7) 1 8) 3 9) 2
LEVEL - I (H.W)
LEVEL-I (H.W.) - HINTS
1. If X is a poisson variable with parameter 0.09,
then its S.D. is 1. S.D  0.09
1) 0.009 2) 0.3 3) 0.03 4) 0.09 e 1
2. If X is a poisson variate with P(X=0)=P(X=1), 2.   1 ; P  X  2 
2!
then P(X=2) is
1) e/2 2) e/6 3) 1/6e 4) 1/2e e  . K
3. P X  K 
. If a random variable X has a poisson K!
distribution such that P(X=1)=P(X=2), its 4. P  X  2   1   P  X  0   P  X  1
mean and variance are
5. 2.P  X  0   P  X  2   2P  X  1
1) 1,1 2) 2, 2 3) 2, 3 4) 2,4
  2
3
4. If X is a poisson variate with parameter , 4
2 
6.
3
find P  X  2
7. e  e 1
5 23 5 3 3 3
1) e 2) 1 e 2 4) e 3) 1  e 2 2 8. P  X  0   2P  X  1
2 2
5. If X is a random poisson variate such that 9. 2
2P(X=0)+P(X=2)=2P(X=1) then E(X)=
1) 4 2) 3 3) 2 4) 1
149
 POISSON DISTRIBUTION

LEVEL-II (C.W) 8. The probability that an individual suffers a bad

reaction from an injection is 0.001. The
1. If 3% of electric bulbs manufactured by a probability that out of 2000 individuals exactly
company are defective, the probability that in three will suffer bad reaction is [EAM 2011]
a sample of 100 bulbs exactly five are defective 1 2 8 4
is 1) 2) 3) 4)
e2 3e 2 3e 2 3e 2
e 0.03  0.03 
5
e 0.3 0.35 e 3 35 e 0.3 35
1) 2) 3) 4) LEVEL-II (C.W.) - KEY
5 5 5 5
2. A telephone switch board receiving number of 1) 3 2) 3 3) 2 4) 2
phone calls follows poisson distribution with 5) 1 6) 3 7) 2 8) 4
parameter 3 per hour. The probability that it LEVEL-II (C.W.) - HINTS
receives 5 calls in 2 hours duration is
3 e 3 .35
1)
e 3 35
2) 1 
e 3 35
3)
e  6 65
4) 1 
e  6 65 1. n = 100, p = ;    np  3 ; p  X  5  
100 5!
5 5 5 5
3. The incidence of an occupational disease to e 6 .65
2. 1h – 3 ; 2h – 6;    6 ; P  X  5 
5!
1
the workers of a factory is found to be . 3.   2 ; P  X  0  e
2
5000
If there are 10000 workers in a factory then 2 5
e 4 4 r
the probability that none of them will get the 4.   200  4 ; P  X  5   r!
100 r 0
desease is
5.   1.5 ; P  X  0   e1.5
1) e 1 2) e2 3) e3 4) e4
4. The probability that atmost 5 defective fuses 6.   0.02 ; P  X  0   e0.02  0.9802
will be found in a box of 200 fuses if experience  Total Prob. = 10000  0.9802 = 9802
shows that 2% of such fuses are defective is 7.   0.2 ; P  X  1  1  P  X  0 
4 5 4 x 4 x 4 x
e 4 5 e 4  e 4  e 4
1) 2) x 0 3) x 6 4) 1  x 6 2 23
5 x x x 8.   2, P ( x  3)  e
3!
5. A car hire firm has 2 cars which it hires out
day by day. If the number of demands for a LEVEL-II (H.W)
car on each day follows poisson distribution
with parameter 1.5, the probability that neither 1. A manufactured product on an average has 2
car is used is defects per unit of product produced. If the
1) e1.5 2) 1.5  e1.5 3) 1  2.5  e1.5 4) 1  1.5  e1.5 number of defects follows P.D., the probability
6. Cycle tyres are supplied in lots of 10 and there of finding zero defects
is a chance of 1 in 500 to be defective. Using e 2 21
1) e2 2) 1  e2 3) 4) e0.02
poisson distribution, the approximate number 1
of lots containing no defectives in a 2. If the number of telephone calls coming into a
0.02 telephone exchange between 10 AM and 11
consignment of 10,000 lots if e  0.9802 is
AM follows P.D. with parameter 2 then the
1) 9980 2) 9998 3) 9802 4) 9982
probability of obtaining zero calls in that time
7. In a town 10 accidents take place in a span of
interval is
50 days. Assuming that number of accidents
1) e2 2) 1  e2 3) 2.e2 4) 3.e2
follows P.D., the probability that there will be
3. Suppose there is an average of 2 suicides per
atleast one accident on a selected day at
year per 50,000 population. In a city of
random is
1,00,000 the probability that in a given year
e 0.02 .21 there are, zero suicides is
1) 2) 1  e0.2 3) e0.2 4) e1.2
1 1) 1.e2 2) 1  e2 3) e4 4) 1  e4
150
 POISSON DISTRIBUTION
4. Suppose 220 misprints are distributed 3. On the average a submarine on patrol sights
randomly throughout a book of 200 pages. The 6 enemy ships per hour. Assuming the number
probability that a given page contains, no of ships sighted in a given length of time is a
misprint is poisson variate, the probability of sighting
atleast two ships in the next 20 minutes is
1) 1.e0.22 2) 1  e0.22 3) e1.1 4) e2.1
1) 1  e2 2) 1  2.e2 3) 1  3.e2 4) 1  4.e2
5. A car hire firm has 2 cars which it hires out
4. A manufacturer who produces medicine bottles
day by day. If the number of demands for a finds that 0.1% of the bottles are defective.
car on each day follows poisson distribution The bottles are packed in boxes containing 500
with parameter 1.5, the probability that both bottles. A drug manufacturer buys 100 boxes
the cars is used is from the producer of bottles. Using poisson
1) 1.125 e1.5 2) 1  2.5  e1.5 distribution, the number of boxes with at least
3) 1  3.625  e1.5 4) 3.625  e1.5 one defective bottle is
6. A firm hires out 3 cars every day. The demand 1) 100 1  e 0.1  2) 100 1  e0.5 
for a car on each day is distributed as a poisson 3) 100 1  e 0.05  4) 100 1  e 0.01 
distribution with mean 2.0. The probability that 5. Patients arrive randomly and independently at
some demand is refused on a day is(e–2= 0.135) a Doctor's room from 8 AM at an average rate
1) 0.2177 2) 0.1912 3) 0.145 4) 0.0192 of one in 5 minutes. The waiting room can
accommodate 12 persons. The probability that
LEVEL-II (H.W.) - KEY
the room will be full when the doctor arrives
1) 1 2) 1 3) 3 4) 3 5) 1 6) 3 at 9 AM is
e 12 1212 11 e 12 12 x 11 e 12 12 x  e 12 12 x
LEVEL-II (H.W.) - HINTS 1) 2) x 0 3) 1  x 0 4) 1  x 0
12 x x x
1. 2 ; P  X  0   e2 6. Suppose that the number of telephone calls
coming into a telephone exchange between 10
2. 2 ; P  X  0   e2 A.M. and 11A.M., say, X1 is a random variable
3. P  X  0   e4
with possion distribution with parameter 2.
4 ;
Similarly the number of calls arriving between
4.   1.1 ; P  X  0   e1.1 11 A.M. and 12 noon, say X2 also follows a
poisson distribution with parameter 6. If X1
5.   1.5 ; P X  2  1 .1 2 5 e  1 .5
and X2 are independent, the probability that
6. P( x  3) more than 5 calls come in between 10 A.M.
and 12 noon is
LEVEL - III 5
e 8 8 x 5
e 8 8 x
1) 1   x!
2) 1   x!
x 1 x0
1. On the average a submarine on patrol sights
6 enemy ships per hour. Assuming the number
5
e 8 8 x 5
e 8 8 x
3) 1   x!
4) 1   x!
of ships sighted in a given length of time is a x2 x3

poisson variate, the probability of sighting 7. Five coins are tossed 3200 times using the
atleast one ship in the next 15 minutes is poisson distribution, the approximate
1) e1.5 2) 1  e6 probability of getting five heads 2 times is
3) 1  e1.5 4) e6 e100  (100)2 e 100  (100)3
1) 2)
2 2
2. On the average a submarine on patrol sights
6 enemy ships per hour. Assuming the number e 100  (100) 4 e 100  (100)5
3) 4)
of ships sighted in a given length of time is a 2 2
poisson variate, the probability of sighting 6 LEVEL-III KEY
ships in the next half an hour is
1) 3 2) 3 3) 3 4) 2
e 6 6 6 e 3 33 e 3 36 e 6 33
1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 3 6) 2 7) 1
6 3 6 6
151
 POISSON DISTRIBUTION

LEVEL - III - HINTS 2. In a binomial distribution n =200, p=0.04.

Taking poisson distribution as an
3
1.  P  X  1  1  P  X  0  approximation to the binomial distribution,
2
Assertion (A): Mean of the Poisson
 3
6

P  X  6   e 3
distribution = 8
2. 3
6! Reason (R): In a poisson distribution, P(X=4)
3. 2 P  X  2   1   P  X  0   P  X  1 512
=
4. P  X  1  1  P  X  0   1  e 0.5 3e8
  0.5
3. Assertion (A) : If the mean of a poisson
for 100 boxes = 100 1  e 0.5  distribution is 4 then the standard deviation is
x 11
e12 12x
2.
5.   12 P  X  12   1   Reason (R) : The standard deviation of a
x 0 x!
poisson variate with parameter  is  .
6. Let X = X1 + X2 . By the additive property of
poisson distribution, X = X1 + X2 is also a poisson MATCH THE FOLLOWING
variable with parameter   2  6  8 . Hence the
probability of getting x calls in between 10 A.M 4. X is a poisson variate with parameter  . Then
match the following.
e   x e 8 8 x
and 12 noon is given by P  X  x    , A) P(x = 0) 1) e–  .sinh 
x! x!
B) P(x  1) 2) e–  .cosh 
5
e8 8 x C) P(x = 1, 3, 5,.....) 3) e–  .tanh 
x = 0, 1, 2, 3,... P  X  5  1  
x0 x!
D) P(x = 0, 2, 4, .....) 4) 1 – e– 
7. Let X be the number of times of getting all heads
5) e– 
when 5 coins are tossed 3200 times. Probability
The correct matching is
of getting all heads when 5 coins are tossed =
A B C D
5
C5

1 1 1) 5 4 2 1
5 mean of X = 3200   100 . Here,
2 32 32 2) 4 5 2 1
poisson parameter is  = 100 3) 5 4 1 2
4) 2 5 1 2
e   2
 Required probability = P (X = 2) =
2 LEVEL - IV - KEY
e100  (100)2 1) 3 2) 2 3) 3 4) 3
=
2
LEVEL - IV - HINTS
LEVEL - IV 2. Mean = 8 ,   8, K  4
Choose the Correct Answer
e   . K
1) Both A and R are true and R is the correct P X  K  
explanation of A K!
2) Both A and R are true but R is not correct 3. S.D  variance
explanation of A
e r
3) A is true but R is false 4. P X  r  
4) A is false but R is true r!
1. Assertion (A) : The sum of the terms in odd places
in a poisson distribution is e cosh  ***
1  3 5
Reason (R) : cosh      .....
1! 3! 5!

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