PLOS ONE

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Data-driven understanding on soccer team

tactics and ranking trends: Elo rating-based
trends on European soccer leagues
Dong Hee Jung ID, Jason J. Jung ID*

Department of Computer Engineering, Chung-Ang University, Seoul, Korea

* [email protected]

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a1111111111 Abstract
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a1111111111 In modern soccer, strategy and tactics significantly impact team success. In this study, the
application of these methodologies within the domain of association soccer is examined,
with a particular focus on predicting team strategies via team trend analysis. Using a dataset
comprising matches from the top five European soccer leagues, we analyzed team perfor-
OPEN ACCESS mance trends over time using the Elo rating system and rolling regression. Predicting strate-
gies from soccer match datasets is a challenging. In our study, we propose methods based
Citation: Jung DH, Jung JJ (2025) Data-driven
understanding on soccer team tactics and ranking on count and rank to address these challenges. For the count-based method, the number of
trends: Elo rating-based trends on European soccer forwards, midfielders, and defenders is used to calculate respective defense and attack
leagues. PLoS ONE 20(2): e0318485. https://doi. scores. For the rank-based method, teams are classified into various levels based on their
org/10.1371/journal.pone.0318485
rankings, and strategies are evaluated accordingly. This approach provides a more detailed
Editor: Julio Alejandro Henriques Castro da Costa, perspective on strategic tendencies by considering team composition and performance at
Portugal Football School, Portuguese Football
each level. Experimental results demonstrate the potential of our proposed methods to
Federation, PORTUGAL
accurately identify and predict team strategies, offering significant implications for tactical
Received: April 30, 2024
decision-making in professional soccer. The findings indicate that the accuracy of predicting
Accepted: January 17, 2025 defensive strategies using count-based predictions was approximately 85%, while the per-
Published: February 5, 2025 formance of predicting aggressive strategies through rank-based predictions was 89%. Our
Peer Review History: PLOS recognizes the methodology can be extended to the development of a predictive model aimed at forecast-
benefits of transparency in the peer review ing team strategies, thereby assisting coaches with more effective preparation for upcoming
process; therefore, we enable the publication of matches.
all of the content of peer review and author
responses alongside final, published articles. The
editorial history of this article is available here:
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0318485

Copyright: © 2025 Jung, Jung. This is an open

access article distributed under the terms of the Introduction
Creative Commons Attribution License, which
The application of machine-learning and data analysis technologies in sports has increased sig-
permits unrestricted use, distribution, and
reproduction in any medium, provided the original
nificantly in recent years [1]. Various sports clubs are now leveraging big data for injury pre-
author and source are credited. vention and treatment as well as for optimizing training schedules and intensity for athletes [2,
3]. This trend extends beyond soccer, encompassing all sporting disciplines, highlighting the
Data Availability Statement: The dataset and
source code used in this study are available at the
critical role of big data technologies [4]. Accordingly, in this study, emerging trends and strate-
following GitHub: https://github.com/kecau/ gic forecasting in association soccer were examined, with a particular focus on its implications
SoccerTeamTrendAnalysis. and applications.

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PLOS ONE Data-driven understanding on soccer team tactics and ranking trends

Funding: The author(s) received no specific With its massive global popularity, association soccer continues to grow annually [5].
funding for this work. Major events, such as the FIFA World Cup, have significantly stimulated the soccer market
Competing interests: The authors have declared through substantial capital investments [6]. The soccer industry has increasingly adopted big
that no competing interests exist. data along with various forms of data, such as images and videos, for market analysis and
growth [7, 8]. Despite market expansion, soccer coaches’ training and tactical decisions are
often influenced more by personal judgment and experience than by data-driven insights [9].
The main goal of this research is to forecast team strategies based on trend analysis, thereby
aiding coaches in their game preparation process, rather than directly predicting specific
teams’ tactics and game outcomes.
The advent of big data and artificial intelligence (AI) has profoundly transformed sports
analytics [10, 11]. Recent advancements in big data analytics have paved the way for more
detailed sports analyses, particularly in soccer [12–14]. There is an ongoing effort to surpass
traditional methods by utilizing data science, data analysis, machine learning, and AI to exam-
ine team strategies and performances more thoroughly [15, 16]. This highlights the vital role
of data science in sports, and demonstrates its potential to enhance competitive strategies
through informed data-driven decisions [17]. The integration of these technologies provides
unprecedented insights into the complexities of game dynamics, enabling the acquisition of
actionable knowledge previously unattainable through conventional methods.
The Elo rating system, originally developed for ranking chess players, has been adapted in
soccer to evaluate team performance dynamically. By updating team ratings after each match
based on expected and actual outcomes, the system provides a nuanced understanding of a
team’s relative strength and performance trends over time. This approach offers a more com-
prehensive perspective compared to traditional ranking systems, making it highly relevant for
analyzing team strategies and predicting future performance.
Constant technological advancements have introduced new methods into sports analytics,
particularly in association soccer [18, 19]. Soccer, characterized by its dynamic and complex
team interactions, requires more sophisticated analytical techniques as its commercialization
grows. Existing studies often focused on team formation, position, and game records for analy-
sis, overlook team trends [20]. The current study considered team trends as a fundamental
characteristic used to predict team strategy. By concentrating on forecasting team trends and
strategies, this study aimed to provide insights that can guide teams’ proactive preparation and
strategic responses in the highly competitive field of international soccer [21].
This study aimed to answer the following research questions:
• RQ1. What trends can be observed in a soccer team’s performance over time?
• RQ2. Is it possible to group soccer teams into clusters based on their strategies?
• RQ3. Can a soccer team’s strategy be predicted?
This study utilized data from the top five European soccer leagues, comprising 3,652
matches, to analyze using detailed metrics such as team formations, match outcomes, and
rankings. The answers to these research questions contribute to the focus on trends and pre-
dictions of soccer team’s strategies in sports analysis. To answer these questions, the following
experimental design and research methodology are proposed:
• Develop methods to quantify and analyze trends within a soccer team. This approach
involves a comprehensive analysis of previous games, providing flexibility for real soccer
teams to apply in different scenarios.
• Apply clustering techniques to group teams with similar strategic approaches. This is con-
ducted via two different methodologies for a more effective strategic similarity classification.

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PLOS ONE Data-driven understanding on soccer team tactics and ranking trends

• Conduct experiments to predict the strategies of opposing teams in various situations. This
predictive ability could assist team managers and coaches in their strategic decision making,
potentially influencing the outcome of upcoming matches.

Related work
As a foundation for sports analysis, it is crucial to explore related research in sports beyond
soccer, notably basketball and baseball. These disciplines have experienced significant
advancements in analytics, leveraging data to enhance team performance and strategic deci-
sion making. In basketball, analytics have led to the development of metrics such as the player
efficiency rating (PER) and true shooting percentage (TS%), which provide insights into player
contributions beyond traditional statistics [22]. Similarly, baseball has been transformed by
sabermetrics, altering player valuations and strategic gameplay [23]. Recent studies have also
explored the integration of machine learning in sports analytics, including its applications in
soccer strategy optimization [24, 25]. Although these methods vary across sports disciplines,
they share common objectives with soccer analytics. Cross-sport comparisons enrich the ana-
lytical field, underscoring the universal relevance of data-driven decision making in diverse
sporting contexts.
This study focused primarily on team-based analysis rather than on individual player rat-
ings or grades. In soccer analytics, the Elo rating system is essential for evaluating team trends
and predicting match outcomes. Originally designed to assess the skills of chess players, the
Elo rating system was adapted for soccer teams, providing a dynamic assessment of a team’s
strength over time [26]. By integrating the Elo rating system with machine-learning techniques
and rolling regression methods, this study aimed to refine the analyses of soccer strategies
[27].
In this study, clustering was employed by applying extracted key features. Clustering algo-
rithms are utilized across domains such as image segmentation, object recognition, and data
mining [28]. Specifically, a clustering algorithm for soccer formations assists in visualization,
quantitative comparisons, and time-series analysis, aiding in the identification of team styles
and positional exchange patterns [29]. Narizuka & Yamazaki (2019) [29] used a clustering
algorithm to dynamically characterize soccer team formations across multiple matches, uncov-
ering synergistic relationships via soccer player feature clustering. This approach leverages big
data analysis techniques to examine soccer teams’ tactics and formations [30]. The current
study references such clustering-based studies and employs the K-means algorithm for
clustering.
Traditional sports analytics has evolved beyond statistical methods to incorporate more
sophisticated models, such as deep and reinforcement learning. Deep learning, through archi-
tectures such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks
(RNNs), plays a crucial role in analyzing complex game footage and player movement patterns
and offers insights into game dynamics [31]. In contrast, reinforcement-learning methods
model decision-making in dynamic environments to optimize team strategies and player deci-
sions through game scenario simulations [32]. Applying these technologies to soccer can facili-
tate analysis of team composition, player performance, and match outcome, mirroring the
impacts observed in other disciplines.
Autoencoders, a type of neural network architecture designed for unsupervised learning,
have demonstrated the potential for identifying meaningful features from complex datasets in
sports analytics. Crucial for uncovering significant features within complex datasets without
the need for explicit labeled outcomes, the introduction of the discriminative autoencoder by

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PLOS ONE Data-driven understanding on soccer team tactics and ranking trends

Luo et al. (2019) [33] represents an important advancement in this field, merging the unsuper-
vised learning capabilities of traditional autoencoders with supervised learning techniques
[33]. This combined approach enables more effective feature extraction by utilizing available
label information [34, 35]. Such advancements not only improve the feature representation
quality but also show the adaptability of autoencoders to the nuanced and dynamic nature of
sports data, paving the way for more accurate and predictive analyses in soccer.

Soccer team trend analysis for league matches

In this section, we explore the application of the Elo rating system to analyze team trends and
how rolling regression can be used to identify whether a team is on an upswing or downswing
trajectory. The Elo rating system, which is fundamental in sports analytics, assigns numerical
skill levels to teams based on their performance. After each match, the team score is updated to
reflect the latest results. Applying Elo ratings offers deeper insights than traditional rank-based
trend analyses, capturing nuanced changes in team performance that rankings alone may not
reveal.
To demonstrate this, we present case studies of several teams that have implemented Elo
ratings and rolling regression. These examples elucidate how team trends are identified, show-
casing both the upswings and downswings. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for
understanding the fluid nature of team performance in league play and provides strategic
value to coaches, analysts, and enthusiasts alike.

Team rank for Elo rating

The Elo rating system, originally designed for chess player evaluation, has found widespread
application in various competitive sports. Notably, it has been adapted to assess team perfor-
mance in soccer, where it serves as a crucial algorithm for adjusting team ratings based on
match results and statistically estimating relative skill levels. This section outlines the funda-
mental aspects of the Elo rating system and its modifications for soccer applications.
In this study, we applied the Elo rating system to soccer teams rather than individual play-
ers. This adaptation necessitates an approach that focuses on evaluating the collective team
performance. The core principle of the Elo rating system, as detailed in [36], involves analyzing
match results to statistically measure a team’s current strength, considering both past perfor-
mances and recent outcomes.
The Elo rating calculation in soccer hinges on the principles of expected and actual match
outcomes. The expected team score is given by:
1
EA ¼ RA Þ=D
ð1Þ
1 þ 10ðRB
where EA represents Team A’s expected score in a match with Team B. RA and RB are the cur-
rent Elo ratings of Teams A and B, respectively. The divisor D, typically set at 1500 in soccer,
normalizes the difference in rating, ensuring a balanced comparison between teams.
After a certain match, the Elo ratings are updated to reflect the actual results, as follows:
R0A ¼ RA þ K � ðSA EA Þ ð2Þ

where R0A indicates Team A’s post-match updated rating. The K-factor K determines the extent
of rating adjustment based on the match outcome. Iteratively applying these equations after
each match ensures that team ratings are continuously updated, reflecting both consistent

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PLOS ONE Data-driven understanding on soccer team tactics and ranking trends

performance and occasional deviations.

8
>
> 1; Team win
>
<
SA ¼ 0:5; draw ð3Þ
>
>
>
:
0; otherwise

The actual result achieved by Team A is denoted by SA, where SA represents the actual match
result. Refusing to give one point for a game you need to win, or 0.5 points for a draw, will bur-
den with zero points [37]. This methodology offers a more comprehensive view of a team’s
capabilities and adaptability over time. In this study, the Elo rating system was utilized not
only as a ranking tool but also as an insightful metric for analyzing a team’s strategic and per-
formance trends.
Fig 1 shows the application of the Elo rating system to Serie A teams. Although we calcu-
lated Elo ratings for 98 teams, for clarity, we present the ratings for four teams representing
high, mid-high, mid-low, and low levels. This selection provides insight into the effectiveness
of the system and the varied standing of teams in a competitive league, the Italian top-flight in
this example. The current FIFA Women’s World Rankings utilizes a modified version of the
Elo formula. Our study revealed that the system’s utility extends beyond traditional rankings,
enabling the exploration of team strategies and their evolution.

Fig 1. Elo ratings of Serie A teams.

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PLOS ONE Data-driven understanding on soccer team tactics and ranking trends

In conclusion, the mathematical sophistication and adaptability of the Elo rating system
make it an indispensable analytical tool in soccer. Its application broadens the ability to discern
subtle shifts in team performance, offering a detailed perspective on the dynamic competitive
soccer landscape.

Rolling regression for Elo rating trend

In sports analytics, a critical aspect is understanding and analyzing team performance over
time. This section presents the application of rolling regression to the Elo rating system and
offers novel insights into soccer teams’ performance trends. Unlike moving averages, which
smooth the data to provide a general direction, rolling regression discerns the direction and
magnitude of trends through the slope of a fitted linear model [38].
In this study, we used the Elo rating to calculate a soccer team’s score based on match
results and updated the Elo score after each match, considering the expected and actual results.
Subsequently, rolling regression was applied to these ratings to analyze the performance
trends. The choice of window size in rolling regression is crucial; a smaller window may cap-
ture noise, whereas a larger window may obscure short-term fluctuations. In our analysis, a
window size of 5 was selected for optimal balance. Through the iterative application of rolling
regression to the Elo ratings, we conducted a regression analysis for each team across matches
and calculated the regression line slope for each window. Then, this slope was used to catego-
rize the performance trends as ‘Upswing’ or ‘Downswing.’
Fig 2 illustrates these trends. For example, the Elo ratings of Milan, Hellas Verona, Udinese,
and Spezia are plotted against matchdays, with trend lines from the rolling regression superim-
posed. This visualization provides a clear insight into each team’s performance trajectory
throughout the season. Although both rolling regression and moving averages analyze trends,
they differ significantly in their approach and interpretation. While smoothing data, moving
averages can obscure nuanced changes. In contrast, rolling regression, by providing a slope or
rate of change, offers a more precise and quantifiable trend measure, enhancing the depth of
analysis of team performance trends.
In conclusion, the integration of rolling regression with the Elo rating system has advanced
our understanding of soccer team performance. This approach not only highlights current
standings but also elucidates significant results and patterns, thereby enriching the Elo rating
system’s utility from static rankings to dynamic trend analysis, offering a deeper understand-
ing of team performance in European soccer leagues.

Identifying upswings and downswings

Addressing RQ1 (What trends can be observed in a soccer team’s performance over time?), in
this subsection, we focus on the application of rolling regression to the Elo rating system to
identify performance trends in soccer teams. Analyzing these trends is crucial for understand-
ing the ups and downs in team performance, offering a more dynamic perspective than tradi-
tional ranking systems.
After applying the rolling regression to the Elo rating system, we focused on identifying and
interpreting the ups and downs in team performance. Such trends are pivotal in sports analyt-
ics, as they offer deeper insights into a team’s dynamics throughout the season. Unlike tradi-
tional rankings, the Elo-based approach addresses limitations by considering the strength of
opponents. The methodology involves analyzing the slopes derived from the rolling regression
of Elo ratings. A positive slope indicates an upswing or successful performance period, while a
negative slope indicates a downturn in team performance. The trends of 98 teams were
extracted using this approach.

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Fig 2. Rolling regression applied to the Elo rating of four Serie A teams.
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Fig 3 illustrates these trends by using a rolling regression based on the Elo rating system.
The figure depicts the Elo ratings and rolling regression trends for the four representative
Serie A teams, highlighting the upswings (green dots) and downswings (red dots). This visuali-
zation elucidates team trends over a season, demonstrating that changes in Elo scores alone do
not necessarily indicate definitive upswings or downswings.
Understanding these trends is invaluable for the team management and coaching staff. This
analysis helps identify effective strategies and periods that necessitate tactical changes. It also
informs decisions regarding training, player substitutions, and strategy development. This
analytical approach, which links statistical analyses with sports strategies, offers new insights
into team performance over time. Identifying performance trends through rolling regression
provides sports analysts and strategists with a dynamic understanding of team performance in
competitive soccer leagues beyond traditional experience-based management.
These experiments clarify that the optimal number of games for trend analysis varies signif-
icantly among teams. This finding highlights the importance of a customized approach for soc-
cer strategy analysis. Additionally, it was found that the number of games to be considered in
the analysis can be determined based on team level and recent performance.
These results suggest that as the season progresses, recent matches have a greater impact
than previous matches. The proposed method allows trends to influence the analysis more sig-
nificantly by reflecting the results of each match in terms of team strategy and performance.
This approach, which gives greater weight to recent matches, is particularly useful for

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PLOS ONE Data-driven understanding on soccer team tactics and ranking trends

Fig 3. Elo ratings and rolling regression trends for four Serie A teams.
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predicting future game strategies and can be an essential tool for coaches and analysts in their
decision-making process.

Predictive modeling of team formation strategies

In this section, the methodologies modeled to determine a team’s formation strategy are out-
lined. We utilized two primary approaches to investigate team strategy: the count- and rank-
based approaches. These methods provide various perspectives and critical insights into team
formations and their impact on game strategies, aiding in the analysis and prediction of team
strategies.
To determine the team strategy, we performed feature extraction using an autoencoder.
Because there were no correct answer labels, labels for the offensive and defensive formations
were assigned through clustering. Finally, we created a prediction model for the team’s strategy
using clustered labels using a multi-layer perceptron (MLP).

Team strategic approach for formation style

In soccer, match tactics refer to the strategic formations and play styles employed by a team to
achieve specific objectives during a game. Among these tactics, the composition of the defen-
sive line significantly influences a team’s strategic direction and game management.
The 3-back formation consists of three central defenders and two wing-backs, designed to
strengthen central defense while allowing wing-backs to support both offensive and defensive

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plays. This formation effectively utilizes wide spaces on the flanks and facilitates quick counter-
attacks. Common formations within this system include 3-0-5-0-2 and 3-0-4-0-3.
The 4-back formation is the most stable system, comprising four defenders to maintain a
balance between defense and attack. Full-backs in this system contribute to both defensive cov-
erage and offensive support, offering high tactical flexibility that adapts to various game sce-
narios. Representative formations include 4-0-4-0-2 and 4-0-3-0-3.
The 5-back formation prioritizes defensive solidity by deploying five defenders to fortify
both central and wide defensive zones. While highly effective in maintaining a robust defense,
this system may limit offensive build-up. Typical formations include 5-0-3-0-2 and 5-0-4-0-1.
To explore team strategies, we employed two primary approaches: the count-based
approach, which simplifies team dynamics analysis by focusing on player positions, and the
rank-based approach, which emphasizes the outcomes of matches in the strategic analysis.
The count-based approach emphasizes a straightforward analysis of team formation, typi-
cally involving defenders, midfielders, and attackers. For example, in a 4-0-4-1-1 formation,
the attack score based on one forward and five midfielders is six, while the defense score con-
sidering four defenders and five midfielders is nine. This method assesses a team’s offensive
and defensive strengths based on player positions and provides a clear metric for evaluating a
team’s inclination toward offensive or defensive styles.
Building on the foundation of the count-based approach, the rank-based approach catego-
rizes teams into various levels based on their ranking and evaluates their strategies accordingly.
This approach offers a more detailed perspective on strategic inclinations by considering team
formation and performance at their respective levels. To effectively implement this approach,
teams are categorized into ‘High,’ ‘Mid-High,’ ‘Mid-Low,’ and ‘Low’ levels based on their lea-
gue ranking. This categorization, as detailed in Table 1, is critical for assessing the teams strate-
gic positioning and performance.
Within each level, we calculated the average goals for (GF) and against (GA) for each team
formation. The teams were ranked within their respective levels based on these averages. Addi-
tionally, percentile scores were computed to provide a comparative metric across levels. This
methodology allows for a comprehensive team analysis, emphasizing their relative strengths
and weaknesses in offensive and defensive aspects, depending on their ranking and formation
style. Table 2 lists the offensive and defensive rankings of the different formations at each level.
Integrating the count- and rank-based approaches not only provides immediate analytical
benefits but also lays the groundwork for developing more dynamic and responsive team strat-
egies. This comprehensive view aids coaches and analysts in their strategic planning and deci-
sion making [9].

Match-result-based strategy feature extraction

In this section, the methodology for extracting features from match results is investigated,
which is crucial for enhancing our understanding of team strategies. Initially, we revisited
match data processing using the previously discussed count- and rank-based approaches.

Table 1. Team level.

Team Level Ranking
High 1–5
Mid-High 6–10
Mid-Low 11–15
Low 15–20
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PLOS ONE Data-driven understanding on soccer team tactics and ranking trends

Table 2. Ranking-based formation rank.

Team Formation Level Offensive Rank Defensive Rank
3-0-4-0-3 High 5 8
3-0-4-0-3 Low 10 5
3-0-4-0-3 Mid-High 13 8
3-0-4-0-3 Mid-Low 7 10
3-0-4-1-2 High 13 11
3-0-4-1-2 Low 3 11
3-0-4-1-2 Mid-High 6 9
3-0-4-1-2 Mid-Low 6 17
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These methods enable us to understand team strategies and provide fundamental insights by
examining simple scoring extractions from team formations. For instance, in the 4-0-4-1-1
formation, we calculated an attack score of 6 and a defense score of 9. The feature extraction
process, which leverages both numerical and categorical features, enhanced the depth and pre-
cision of the analysis.
This process is further refined by integrating the rank-based approach, in which teams are
classified into various levels based on league rankings. This classification allows for a more
detailed analysis of offensive and defensive capabilities, surpassing the simplicity of the count-
based scoring mechanism.
Autoencoders play a crucial role in transforming high-dimensional data into a more man-
ageable form, thereby facilitating an in-depth analysis of team strategies. The transformed data
are then clustered using the K-means algorithm, effectively categorizing team formations into
offensive and defensive styles. This method addresses the lack of definitive labels for team for-
mation strategies and is critical for a comprehensive understanding of team strategies [39].
The encoding and decoding processes in our neural network, which includes one hidden
layer, are represented as follows:

Y ¼ fy ðXÞ ¼ sðWX þ bX Þ ð4Þ

X 0 ¼ gðYÞ ¼ sg ðW 0 Y þ bY Þ ð5Þ

In Eq (4), Y represents the encoded feature set obtained from input data X. Function fθ
includes the weights W and biases bX of the encoder, where s is the activation function. This
process compresses original high-dimensional data into a lower-dimensional representation.
Eq (5) expresses the decoding function, where X0 represents the reconstructed data. Function g
uses the weights W0 and biases bY of the decoder, where sg is the activation function. This
phase attempts to reconstruct the original data from the encoded representation, which is
essential for loss minimization during training.
K-means clustering played a vital role in generating clear labels for the offensive and defen-
sive formations. This approach is essential to thoroughly understand team strategies. By apply-
ing this methodology, distinct team formation and strategic patterns emerged. Specific
formations were more likely to be associated with offensive or defensive playing styles. The use
of these mathematical formulations in our neural network model enables a nuanced under-
standing and categorization of team strategies. These insights significantly contribute to the
accuracy of subsequent predictive models in soccer strategy analyses.

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PLOS ONE Data-driven understanding on soccer team tactics and ranking trends

Results
Experimental settings
Our goal was to gather and analyze key information about team tactics from the top five Euro-
pean soccer leagues, namely, England, Spain, France, Italy, and Germany. We collected data
from various websites, including sports-reference(https://www.sports-reference.com/), cover-
ing 3652 games played by 98 teams during a single season. The data that we focused on
included aspects such as matchday, team name, opposing team, team formation, opponent for-
mation, match result, home/away status, GF, GA, and team rank. Preprocessing involved nor-
malizing numerical variables such as goals for and against, encoding categorical features such
as formations and home/away status, and addressing missing data by interpolating results
based on recent team performance. We focused on league matches because they provide con-
sistent data, and decided not to include matches from continental club tournaments or domes-
tic cup competitions.
We chose major European soccer leagues that are well-known and popular worldwide. This
selection was important for our aim, which was to understand team strategies and trends by
analyzing their performance in head-to-head league matches. Each team’s participation in
both home and away matches was crucial to the analysis. Table 3 lists the leagues and countries
from which we gathered our data.
Furthermore, to add depth to our analysis, we also used worldfootball(https://www.
worldfootball.net/) to obtain real-time team rankings after each matchday. This extra informa-
tion was vital for identifying trends, such as upswings or downswings in team performance
based on their changing ranking, thereby offering a more comprehensive view of how teams
perform over time.
All analyses and model computations were performed using Python. The parameters set
during training for each proximity are as follows: batch size = 128 and epochs = 10. We used
the Adam optimizer with a dropout rate of P drop = 0.1 and a learning rate of 0.01. Dropout
was applied to the output of each sub-layer, and L2 regularization (weight decay) of 0.001 was
applied in the fully connected layers.

Formation style clustering result

In this subsection, by addressing RQ2 (Is it possible to group soccer teams into clusters based
on their strategies?), we explored the clustering of soccer teams. This analysis aimed to identify
groups of teams with similar strategic trends, both in terms of our focus team and their oppo-
nents, as well as in their offensive and defensive capabilities. A particular case study was con-
ducted involving matches in which a lesser-ranked team emerged victorious over a higher-
ranked opponent. The case study concentrated on such matches to discern patterns in the
strategies of underdogs overcoming favored teams.
The dataset, comprising 108 instances in which a weaker team defeated a stronger one, was
segmented into two halves for detailed analysis. The first half spanned from Matchday 1 to the

Table 3. European leagues and countries used to collect data.

League Country
La Liga Spain
Premier League England
Bundesliga Germany
Serie A Italy
Ligue 1 France
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PLOS ONE Data-driven understanding on soccer team tactics and ranking trends

Fig 4. Clustering count results for the first half of the European soccer season.
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midpoint of Matchday 19. Fig 4 shows the clustering results for this period, revealing discern-
ible clusters of teams with similar strategic approaches. The analysis, based on three distinct
clusters, allowed for an insightful delineation of the strategic styles prevalent among teams.
We examined the tactics primarily used in each cluster. Cluster 0 frequently employed for-
mations such as ‘4-0-4-0-2’ and ‘5-0-3-0-2’. Cluster 1 predominantly used the ‘4-0-2-3-1’ for-
mation. Teams in Cluster 2 mainly utilized formations like ‘4-0-3-0-3’ and ‘3-0-4-0-3’. Each
cluster also exhibited significant characteristics beyond tactics. For instance, Cluster 0 mainly
relied on defensive strategies, evidenced by the highest defense score of 8 points according to
our calculation method. Conversely, Cluster 2, with a defense score of 7 points, played more
offensively compared to Cluster 0. The difference between Cluster 1 and Cluster 2 arises more
from the tactical variations rather than the overall play style.
Fig 5 shows the clustering results for the second half of the season, Matchdays 20 to 38.
Clusters 1 and 2 comprise teams with nearly identical strategic profiles. Notably, “M’Glad-
bach” maintained cluster grouping across both halves, indicating a consistent strategic

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PLOS ONE Data-driven understanding on soccer team tactics and ranking trends

Fig 5. Clustering count results for the second half of the European season.
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approach. Conversely, “Crystal Palace” underwent a strategic transition, moving from Cluster
2 in the first half to Cluster 0 in the second half, indicating a shift in strategy to better challenge
stronger teams.
The ranking method offers a different perspective, as shown in Figs 6 and 7. This approach
resulted in a more even distribution of teams across clusters, suggesting a general strategic sim-
ilarity. The ranking method revealed that Clusters 0, 1, and 2 contained teams that utilized a
broad spectrum of strategies.
The clustering performed in this study faces several challenges due to its reliance on a sin-
gle-season dataset, which limits its analysis to a small subset of matches. The focus on matches
where weaker teams beat stronger ones further narrows the study’s scope to a selected number
of teams. Future research should aim to overcome these limitations by expanding the dataset
to enable a more comprehensive analysis that includes a broader variety of teams and strategic
dynamics.

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PLOS ONE Data-driven understanding on soccer team tactics and ranking trends

Fig 6. Clustering ranking results for the first half season of the European soccer.
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Formation style prediction

In this subsection, addressing RQ3 (Can a soccer team’s strategy be predicted?), the team strat-
egy forecasting results are presented by comparing various classification models. To predict
the strategies employed by soccer teams, we trained several classification models on our dataset
and evaluated their performance in terms of accuracy, precision, and recall on a test dataset.
We utilized K-fold cross-validation to assess the models’ performance. This method involves
dividing the data multiple times for training and evaluation, thereby ensuring that our perfor-
mance metrics reflect the models’ generalized capabilities, rather than their performance in a
single data partition.
In this study, the precision and recall metrics for predicting soccer team strategies served to
measure how accurately a model could predict a specific strategy. For instance, if a model pre-
dicts that a team will employ an aggressive strategy, the precision metric assesses the accuracy
of this prediction in matching teams that employ aggressive strategies. Recall measures the
model’s ability to correctly identify teams employing a particular strategy from among all

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PLOS ONE Data-driven understanding on soccer team tactics and ranking trends

Fig 7. Clustering ranking results for the second half season of the European soccer.
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teams that the model predicts as doing so. Thus, in the context of soccer team strategy predic-
tion, precision refers to the proportion of teams correctly identified as using a particular strat-
egy out of all teams predicted as such, while recall indicates the proportion of teams correctly
predicted as using a strategy out of all teams that employ that strategy. The analysis of a soccer
team’s strategy requires careful assessment of the tradeoff between failing to identify a particu-
lar strategy and incorrectly identifying one, guiding the choice of the model based on whether
precision or recall is deemed more critical.
To analyze the impact of team formation styles on match outcomes, we employed several
predictive models: MLP, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Logistic Regression, and Deci-
sion Tree. Each model was selected for its unique characteristics and strengths. MLP is effec-
tive at capturing nonlinear relationships in complex datasets. Random Forest enhances
robustness by combining multiple decision trees and managing datasets effectively. Gradient
Boosting builds trees sequentially, correcting errors from previous iterations, thereby improv-
ing accuracy in complex scenarios. Logistic Regression offers a straightforward approach for

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PLOS ONE Data-driven understanding on soccer team tactics and ranking trends

Table 4. Count-based formation prediction.

Model Accuracy Precision Recall
MLP 0.62 0.62 0.68
Random Forest 0.62 0.63 0.63
Gradient Boosting 0.64 0.64 0.71
Logistic Regression 0.53 0.55 0.52
Decision Tree 0.62 0.63 0.61
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binary classification, providing insights into probabilistic outcomes and feature influences.
The Decision Tree model is intuitive and interpretable, making it useful for understanding
decision processes and modeling feature interactions. For comprehensive performance evalua-
tion, these models were assessed using cross-validation and metrics such as accuracy, preci-
sion, recall, and F1 score.
Table 4 lists the evaluation metric values of the count-based strategy predictions. For count-
based formations, the number of players in specific positions significantly affects the predic-
tion outcome. Gradient boosting achieved the highest accuracy, precision, and recall values in
the count-based strategy prediction, demonstrating a superior predictive performance. Con-
versely, logistic regression exhibited the lowest performance.
Table 5 lists the evaluation metric values of the ranking-based strategy prediction. In rank-
ing-based formations, factors such as team level, GF, and GA were found to be the most influ-
ential. Similarly, gradient boosting exhibited the highest accuracy in the ranking-based
strategy prediction, with excellent precision results, while random forest exhibited the best
recall performance. Overall, ranking-based predictions yielded higher average accuracy values
and slightly better performance than count-based predictions.
The ranking-based approach incorporates contextually relevant features, such as team level,
GF, and GA, offering more comprehensive insights into a team’s capabilities and strategic
style, thereby enabling models to leverage a richer dataset. The consistent success of gradient
boosting across both prediction methods underscores its efficacy in modeling complex pat-
terns and interactions between features. In the ranking-based approach, the random forest
model achieved a recall rate of 0.72, the highest among the models tested. However, this also
indicates a 28% inaccuracy. While this demonstrates the random forest model’s relative
strength in classification compared to other models, it also highlights the need for further
improvements to enhance accuracy. This suggests that there is still room for improvement in
this model.
The observed differences in model performance between the count- and ranking-based
methods can be attributed to each model’s specific approach to processing and learning from
strategic features. Gradient boosting’s across-the-board success highlights its versatility in
adapting to simple positional data and complex contextual information. The disparity in

Table 5. Ranking-based formation prediction.

Model Accuracy Precision Recall
MLP 0.68 0.70 0.64
Random Forest 0.74 0.75 0.72
Gradient Boosting 0.78 0.82 0.71
Logistic Regression 0.56 0.55 0.55
Decision Tree 0.75 0.77 0.70
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PLOS ONE Data-driven understanding on soccer team tactics and ranking trends

performance between the two prediction methods emphasizes the importance of data repre-
sentation for accurately modeling soccer strategies. Count-based data offer a straightforward,
albeit simplified, perspective on team composition, whereas ranking-based data provide a
more nuanced and contextually rich understanding, thereby enabling broader strategic
insights.
The variation in model efficiency suggests a nuanced alignment between the model capabil-
ities and the predictive tasks. Models capable of intricately managing feature complexity and
interactions, such as gradient boosting, excelled in both scenarios. In contrast, models such as
logistic regression may struggle with the more complex and less linear nature of ranking-based
data. Based on these findings, we discuss not only the predictive capabilities of various models
but also the intrinsic nature of soccer strategies. This analysis suggests that, while count-based
metrics provide valuable insights, integrating ranking-based metrics offers a more comprehen-
sive view of a team’s strategic approach.

Model evaluation
In this section, we evaluate the performance of predictive models designed to forecast the char-
acteristics of sports team performances based on their formations and past match statistics.
The dataset was subjected to comprehensive preprocessing to optimize the modeling. This
included the normalization of numerical features, such as GF, GA, team rankings, and calcu-
lated attack and defense scores, as well as the encoding of categorical variables representing
team formations and match outcomes. Feature engineering was pivotal in establishing the
foundation for our predictive models and enhancing their learning capability using the
dataset.
Our MLP model integrates both numerical and categorical inputs. Numerical features were
subjected to linear transformation, whereas categorical features were processed through
embedding layers to capture the intrinsic relationships within the data. The architecture com-
prised dense layers with ReLU activation and a final sigmoid layer for binary classification,
assuming that the target variable was binary. Concurrently, an Autoencoder model was
deployed to distill high-dimensional data into a more manageable lower-dimensional space,
thereby facilitating a more efficient clustering process. The encoder segment aims to compress
the input data, while the decoder seeks to reconstruct the input using a compressed representa-
tion. By applying these methodologies, we comprehensively evaluated the team strategies.
The dataset was divided into training and testing subsets, with 80% of the data allocated for
training. Both models were compiled using the Adam optimizer, with the MLP model focusing
on binary cross-entropy loss for classification and the Autoencoder model focusing on the
mean squared error for reconstruction fidelity. The MLP model showed promising accuracy
levels, effectively predicting whether a team formation was offensive or defensive. The confu-
sion matrix provided deeper insights into the model performance, highlighting its precision in
classifying true positives and negatives. The normalized values facilitate an easy understanding
of the model’s predictive consistency across classes, playing a pivotal role in assessing the mod-
el’s practical utility in sports analytics.
Fig 8 presents the confusion matrix based on count-based data, which reveals better accu-
racy in predicting defensive strategies than offensive strategies. Conversely, Fig 9 presents the
confusion matrix based on ranking-based data, indicating superior accuracy in forecasting
offensive strategies compared with defensive strategies. Both methodologies exhibit distinctive
advantages: one excels at predicting offensive strategies, whereas the other is proficient in fore-
casting defensive strategies, each with its inherent strengths and weaknesses.

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PLOS ONE Data-driven understanding on soccer team tactics and ranking trends

Fig 8. Count-based confusion matrix.

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These models demonstrated their potential in sports analytics by effectively predicting and
interpreting team formation strategies. Future endeavors will explore more sophisticated neu-
ral architectures and the integration of additional features, such as player-specific statistics, to
enhance the prediction accuracy. The objective is to improve the accuracy of both methodolo-
gies by leveraging their respective strengths to provide a more comprehensive understanding
of team strategies.

Conclusion
In this study, we utilized the Elo rating system, rolling regression, autoencoders, various pre-
dictive models, and clustering techniques to investigate the strategic formation of soccer teams
across five major European leagues. The Elo rating system was used to provide a detailed hier-
archy of teams, beyond simple rankings, while rolling regression was used to understand team
trends. By combining these two methods, we could discern trends across soccer teams, irre-
spective of their corresponding league. Additionally, our study explored team formation strate-
gies using two approaches: the count- and ranking-based approaches. Through clustering, we
analyzed the similarities among teams in certain situations to determine which teams used
similar strategies under specific conditions. We also employed various predictive models to
assess the strategy prediction accuracy in specific scenarios. Finally, we analyzed all team strat-
egies using feature extraction with an autoencoder. Because correct labels for offensive or
defensive strategies were not available, K-means clustering was used to assign accurate labels
to formations. Using a MLP, we predicted team strategies based on clustered labels by consid-
ering the team level and trends. The results revealed that count-based predictions were more

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PLOS ONE Data-driven understanding on soccer team tactics and ranking trends

Fig 9. Rank-based confusion matrix.

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accurate for defensive strategies, while ranking-based predictions were more accurate for
offensive strategies. Each prediction method has its advantages and disadvantages, with count-
based methods being approximately 15% more accurate in predicting defensive strategies and
ranking-based methods being approximately 11% more accurate in predicting offensive strate-
gies. We hope that this study provides a foundation for coaches and strategists to make
informed decisions and effectively formulate strategies against certain opponents.
Despite its many advantages, this study has some limitations. The proposed model demon-
strated high predictive accuracy but also exhibited several limitations. First, despite measures
such as cross-validation and dropout regularization, the relatively small dataset and the com-
plexity of the model raise the possibility of overfitting. Second, the generalizability of this study
is constrained as the dataset focuses on a single season of matches from the top five European
leagues. This limitation may prevent the full capture of strategic variations across seasons, lea-
gues, or international competitions. Addressing these limitations will be a key focus of future
research, which aims to expand the dataset to include multiple seasons and additional leagues,
as well as to further evaluate the robustness of the model by employing independent test sets.
Future studies should collect data from a wider variety of leagues and teams to address these
limitations and undertake more comprehensive analyses. Although we predicted team strate-
gies with relative accuracy, unexpected aspects of team formations or match outcomes were
observed. We recognized trends across various games; however, not all trends were utilized in
this study. Future work should incorporate all unused trends and seek to design methods for
predicting team formations and match outcomes, considering the opposition level. These
efforts will aim to predict a broader array of soccer strategies and develop applications for a

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PLOS ONE Data-driven understanding on soccer team tactics and ranking trends

larger number of teams, thereby enhancing the global understanding and application of strate-
gic formations in soccer.

Author Contributions
Conceptualization: Dong Hee Jung, Jason J. Jung.
Data curation: Dong Hee Jung, Jason J. Jung.
Formal analysis: Dong Hee Jung, Jason J. Jung.
Investigation: Dong Hee Jung, Jason J. Jung.
Methodology: Dong Hee Jung, Jason J. Jung.
Project administration: Jason J. Jung.
Resources: Dong Hee Jung.
Software: Dong Hee Jung.
Supervision: Jason J. Jung.
Validation: Dong Hee Jung, Jason J. Jung.
Visualization: Dong Hee Jung.
Writing – original draft: Dong Hee Jung.
Writing – review & editing: Jason J. Jung.

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