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Meta Title - PROBABILITY

The document provides an overview of probability theory, including definitions of key concepts such as random experiments, sample space, and probability distributions. It explains classical probability, conditional probability, Bayes' theorem, and the mean and variance of random variables. Additionally, it addresses common questions related to probability and concludes with the importance of understanding these concepts in measuring uncertainty.

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18 views6 pages

Meta Title - PROBABILITY

The document provides an overview of probability theory, including definitions of key concepts such as random experiments, sample space, and probability distributions. It explains classical probability, conditional probability, Bayes' theorem, and the mean and variance of random variables. Additionally, it addresses common questions related to probability and concludes with the importance of understanding these concepts in measuring uncertainty.

Uploaded by

Ashira Mir
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Meta Title: PROBABILITY

Meta Description: Probability tells us the likeliness of occurrence of any


event. A probability distribution is like a tool that helps predict the
occurrence of a certain event by considering all the possible probabilities of
each outcome of that event.

PROBABILITY

Introduction

Probability theory deals with the numerical study of the occurrences of


certain events. When we watch a football match we are likely to predict
who will win the match we are not very certain about this but we make
predictions, that is we are uncertain. Probability theory can be used to
measure this uncertainty. A very classical example would be that of tossing
a coin, here the two possible outcomes are heads and tails so the
probability is 50% for each outcome. Probability cannot tell us what exactly
will happen but will certainly give us an idea about the possibilities.

Some Basic Definitions:


1. Random Experiment: Any event whose outcome cannot be predicted
with certainty. Example: Tossing a coin, Throwing a die
2. Sample Space: It is the set of all possible outcomes of a random
experiment.
3. Elementary Event: An event with only a single sample point.Example:
When two coins are tossed, the event of getting both tails is an
elementary event.
4. Compound Event: An event other than an elementary event.Example:
While tossing two coins the event of getting at least one tail is a
compound event.
5. Mutually exclusive events: A set of events are mutually exclusive if
the occurrence of any one of them precludes the occurrence of any of
the remaining events.Example: If E1∩ E2∩......∩ En=ϕ , where ϕ is the
null set then these events are mutually exclusive.
6. Exhaustive events: A set of events are exhaustive if the performance
of the experiment results in the occurrence of at least one of
them.Example: If E1∪ E2∪......∪ En=S, where S is the sample space,
then these events are exhaustive.
7. Mutually exhaustive and exclusive events: If the above two conditions
are satisfied then the events are mutually exhaustive and exclusive.

Classical Definition of Probability


Probability is the ratio of the number of cases in favor to the total number of
cases

P(E)= n( E)/n(S )= Number of cases favourable ¿ E/Total number of cases

Range of value of P(E)


The probability of occurrence of an event will always be a number lying
between 0 and 1.

Some important symbols

If A, B, and C are any three events then,


1. A∩B or AB denotes the simultaneous occurrence of both events.
2. A∪B or A+B denotes the occurrence of at least one of the events.
3. A-B denotes the occurrence of A but not B.
4. A denotes the not occurrence of A.
5. A∩B denotes the occurrence of event A but not B.
6. A∪B∪C denotes the occurrence of at least one of the three events.
7. A∩B∩C denotes the occurrence of all three events.

Conditional Probability
Consider two events A and B, the probability of occurrence of A given that
B has already occurred is called conditional probability. It is denoted by
P(A/B).

P(A/B)= n(A∩B)/n(B)
Total Probability Theorem
Let E1, E2,......, En be n mutually exclusive and exhaustive events then, for
any event E

P(E)= ∑ ❑ P( Ei ). P( E / Ei )
i=1

Baye’s Theorem
If an event E can occur only with one of the n mutually exclusive and
exhaustive events E1, E2,......, En and the probabilities P( E / E1), P( E /E 2),....., P(
E / En ) is known then
n

P( E k /E )= P( E k).P( E / E k)/∑ ❑ P( E k).P( E / E k)


i=1

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF RANDOM VARIABLE

Any event whose outcome cannot be predicted with certainty is a random


experiment. In these experiments, we are interested in some number
associated with that outcome. For example: In tossing two dies we may be
interested in finding the cases when the sum of the numbers on the dice is
six. So here each outcome of the event is assigned to a single real number.
This single number will vary according to the outcomes of the experiment
so it is a variable. As its value depends on the random experiment we call
this variable a Random Variable. And it is denoted by X.

A random variable can be defined as a function whose domain is the


sample space of the particular random experiment.

In a particular experiment, there will be different values that X can take and
the probability of X being a particular real number can be found.
So when we associate the possible values of the variable X with the
probability of each value we can get distribution and this is called the
Probability distribution of the random variable.
A more generalized definition of the Probability distribution of the random
variable would be as follows:
The probability distribution of a random variable X is the set of numbers

X: x 1, x 2,....., x n.
P(X): p1, p2,....., pn.

Where, pi>0, ∑ ❑ pi=1, i=1,2….,n.


i=1

The real numbers x 1, x 2,....., x n are possible values of X, and p1, p2,....., pn is the
probability of the associated random variable.

MEAN OF A RANDOM VARIABLE:


It is the average value of the random variable. Denoted by E(X).

E(X)= μ=∑ ❑ x i pi = x 1 p1+ x 2 p2+....+ x n pn.


i=1

So mean of a random variable is the sum of the products of all possible


values of X by their respective probabilities.

VARIANCE OF A RANDOM VARIABLE:


It is denoted by Var(X).

Var(X)= ∑ ❑(x ¿¿ i−μ) p(x ¿¿ i)¿ ¿ = E(X- μ¿2


i=1

n
√ ❑Var(X)=√ ❑ ∑ ❑(x ¿¿ i−μ) p(x ¿¿ i)¿ ¿ is called the standard deviation of
i=1

the random variable.

CONCLUSION:
To summarise we have seen the basic definitions involved in
Probability theory. An event has to be both mutually exclusive and
exhaustive in order to use the Bayes theorem. The theorem of
total probability may be used in most cases where the sample
space is defined and when each event has non-zero probability.

A random experiment and random variable are involved in the


study for the probability distribution of a random variable. If we
cannot predict the outcome with certainty then the event may be
called a random experiment. The mean, variance, and standard
deviation of the random variable help in studying the values
accurately. If the variance is small it means the value of the
random variable is close to the mean. Also, random variables with
different probability distributions can have equal means.

FAQs

1. Does the mean of a random variable give information about


variability?
No, the mean doesn’t provide any information about the
variability so the variance of a random variable is defined for
this purpose.

2. What is the sum of all the probabilities in the probability


distribution of a random variable?
Sum = 1 as for al possible values of the random variable X,
all elements of the sample space are covered.

3. What are the necessary conditions to use the Bayes


theorem?
The events must be mutually exclusive and exhaustive
ignored to use the Bayes Theorem.
4. Can the multiplication rule be applied to probability for more
than two events?
Yes, the multiplication rule for probability for more than two
events is:
P(A∩ B ∩C )= P(A)P(B|C)P(C|(A∩B))

REFERENCES:
1. https://www.selfstudys.com/books/jee-maths/english/notes/
31-probability/4822
2.
https://www.askiitians.com/iit-jee-algebra/probability/
#intoduction-of-probability
3. https://www.iitianacademy.com/iit-jee-advanced-maths-
probability-study-materials/

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