INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND

FORECASTING
MODAL SPLIT
Modal Split is the third step of travel demand modeling. It is also known as mode,
mode split, modal share, and mode share. Modal split is the percentage of travelers
using specific type or mode of transportation; or the number of trips using the type of
transportation.
Choice may be done using either Binary or Multiple Choice.
Example of Binary Choice

TRIP

NON- MOTORIZED MOTORIZED

WALK BICYCLE PRIVATE PUBLIC

COMPANY RAIL

PERSONAL BUS

GENERALIZED COST
Places cost on quantifiable and sometimes unquantifiable factors that may be
incurred during a trip using a specified mode. This may include travel cost, travel time
travel distance and level of service.
GC =c+ dT
where:
c – cost
d – time travel
T – time incurred
DIFFERENT MODEL USED IN MODAL SPLIT
1. Disaggregate Choice Model
This assume that trip maker selects mode which provides most economic
utility.
Total utility provided by mode option:

um =β m+ ∑ α j z mj + ε

Models depending on distribution of ε

 Probit Model (normal distribution of ε )
 Logit Model (distribution of ε is Weibull)

um =β m+ ∑ α j z mj + ε

where:
um – total utility provided by the mode option m
β m – mode specific parameter; relative attractiveness of different travel
modes within segment
α j – model parameter
z mj – set of travel characteristics of mode m, in terms of travel costs or
travel time
ε – stochastic term which makes allowance for unspecifiable portion of
utility assumed to be random; variability in individual utilities around
average utility in segment.

 Probit Model
Assumes a normal distributed errors in choices of transportation mode.

vm−vi −1

∫ √21 π e 2
2
u
P m= du
−∞

 Logit Model
The probability that a trip maker will select one mode option, m, is
equal to the probability that the option’s utility is greater than the utility
of the other options.
General Equation:
u
e m

P m=
∑ eu m'

Where:
Pm – probability of mode m to be chosen
 m’ – index over all modes included in chosen set

Remember: When only two choices for modes is given, equation is

simplified into a binary logit model.

1
P 1= u −u
1+e 2 1

Example 1:
For a particular zone pair, three modes of travel between the zones exist: Private
transport, bus, and urban rapid transit system. Given that all trip-makers have access to
private transport and that the perceived utility of a mode is given by:
'
um =−0.004 t m−0.005 cm −0.003 u m +0.15 d m

Where:
t m – travel time in minutes

c m – travel cost in pesos

'
u m – waiting time in minutes
d m – dummy variable

Assume that variable values are as shown in the table and that 1000 trips are made
from the origin to destination zone. Determine the number of trips made by each mode.
Use Logit Model.
Mode Variable values
t m, min c m, php '
u m, min dm
Private 65 60 0 1
Bus 75 20 15 0
Transit 25 30 5 0

Solution:
Calculate for the utility for each mode:
'
um =−0.004 t m−0.005 cm −0.003 u m +0.15 d m

u private =−0.004 ( 65 )−0.005 ( 60 )−0.003 ( 0 ) +0.15 ( 1 )=−0.41

ubus =−0.004 ( 75 )−0.005 ( 20 )−0.003 ( 15 ) +0.15 ( 0 )=−0.445

utransit =−0.004 ( 25 )−0.005 (30 )−0.003 ( 5 ) +0.15 ( 0 )=−0.265

Compute for probabilities using logit model:
um
e
P m=
∑ eu m'

Mode um e
um
Pm Trip Makers
Private -0.41 0.664 0.664/2.072 = 0.320(1000)
0.320 = 320
Bus -0.445 0.641 0.641/2.072 = 0.309(1000)
0.309 = 309
Transit -0.265 0.767 0.767/2.072 = 0.370(1000)
0.370 = 370
Total 2.072 ∑ ¿ 0.999≈ 1 ≈ 1000

CLASSIFICATION OF MODAL SPLIT

Pre distribution At trip generation

(Trip end modal split) stage
Modal Split
Process

Post distribution After Trip Distribution

(Trip interchange (before trip
modal split) assignment stage)

Trip End Modal Split Model

If modal split is considered at the trip generation stage itself, it is necessary to
derive separate multiple linear regression equation for each mode of transportation like
wise car, public transport, rail etc.
Trip Interchange Modal Split Model
This modal applied after the trip distribution stage. That is possible to include the
characteristics of the journey.

Difference between types of modal split models

 Trip End Modal Split Model Trip Interchange Modal Split Model
That is modal split is applied at the stage That is modal split is applied after the trip
of trip generation. distribution stage.
These models could be very accurate in This is beneficial for long term modeling.
the short run.
Model considers length of journey by car Model ignores length of journey by car
and public transport. and public transport.
Factors: Car ownership, Residential Factors: Relative travel time and Cost
density, Income, Distance of zone ratio
Less difficult More complex and costly
Performed in medium & small size city Performed in large size city
Emphasize on transit captives Emphasized on choice transit captives
e.g. Various studies and models e.g. Toronto Model