PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT, AND

ADDITION RULES OF PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
Probability
• A probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood that
an event will occur after conducting an experiment.
• Probability values are always assigned on a scale from 0
to 1. A probability near zero indicates an event is unlikely
to occur; a probability near 1 indicates an event is almost
certain to occur.
• In many experiments, such as tossing a coin or a die, all
the sample points have the same chance of occurring and
are assigned equal probabilities.
Probability (Cont’d)
• The sum of all the probabilities assigned to the sample
points in the sample space is equal to 1.
• The probability of an event A is the sum of all the
probabilities assigned to the sample points in A; denoted
by 𝑃 𝐴 .
Probability of an event A
Example
a) A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that at least 1
head occurs?
b) A die is loaded in such a way that an even number is twice as
likely to occur as an odd number:
i. If E is the event that a number less than 4 occurs on a single
toss of the die, find P(E).
ii. let A be the event that an even number turns up and let B be
the event that a number divisible by 3 occurs. Find
➢P(A ∪ B)
➢P(A ∩ B).
Classical Probability
• If the sample space for an experiment contains N elements, all of
which are equally likely to occur, we assign a probability equal to
1/N to each of the N points. The probability of any event A
containing n of these N sample points is then the ratio of the
number of elements in A to the number of elements in S.
Example
A statistics class for engineers consists of 25 biomedical,
10 mining, 10 electrical, and 8 geological engineering
students. If a person is randomly selected by the
instructor to answer a question, find the probability that
the student chosen is:
i. a biomedical engineering major
ii. a geological engineering or an electrical engineering
major.
- Keyword hint: “or” in Probability deals with the union of
events.
Example
• Five cards are randomly drawn from a regular deck of
cards. Find the probability of getting
a) Four aces
b) Two aces and 3 jacks
• A 4-digit PIN number is selected.
a) How many ways can a 4-digit pin number be selected?
b) What is the probability that there are no repeated
digits?
Other kinds of probability
❖Relative frequency/empirical probability
• This school of thought says you must conduct an
experiment a large number of times and observe the
proportion of times an event happens.
• For example; toss a coin a thousand times, and if a head
occurs 500 times, then the probability of getting a head is
approximately 0.5
Other kinds of probability (Cont’d)
❖Subjective Probability
• This school of thought arrives at probabilities through
intuition, personal beliefs, and other indirect information.
• For example, determining the probability that your
favourite football team will win. However, coming to this
decision based on your personal belief.
ADDITION RULES
ADDITION RULES FOR NON-MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS, MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
EVENTS, COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS
Addition rule for non-mutually exclusive events
Example
• A single card is drawn from a deck. Find the probability of
selecting the following.
a) Getting a four or a diamond
b) Getting a jack or a black card
• The probability that a given tourist goes to Lake Malawi is
0.47, and the probability that she goes to Liwonde
National Park is 0.58. If the probability that she goes to
either Liwonde National Park or Lake Malawi is 0.95, what
is the probability that she visits both of the parks on
vacation?
Addition rule for mutually exclusive events
Example
a) At a convention there are 7 mathematics instructors, 5
computer science instructors, 3 statistics instructors,
and 4 science instructors. If an instructor is selected,
find the probability of getting a science instructor or a
math instructor.
b) If the probabilities are, respectively, 0.09, 0.15, 0.21,
and 0.23 that a person purchasing a new automobile
will choose the color green, white, red, or blue, what is
the probability that a given buyer will purchase a new
automobile that comes in one of those colors?
Complementary events
Example
• If the probabilities that an automobile mechanic will
service 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 or more cars on any given
workday are, respectively, 0.12, 0.19, 0.28, 0.24, 0.10, and
0.07, what is the probability that he will service at least 5
cars on his next day at work?
Example
• Suppose the manufacturer’s specifications for the length of a
certain type of computer cable are 2000 ± 10 millimeters. In this
industry, it is known that small cable is just as likely to be
defective (not meeting specifications) as large cable. That is the
probability of randomly producing a cable with length exceeding
2010 millimeters is equal to the probability of producing a cable
with length smaller than 1990 millimeters. The probability that
the production procedure meets specifications is known to be
0.99.
a) What is the probability that a cable selected randomly is too large?
b) What is the probability that a randomly selected cable is larger than
1990 millimeters?
Thank You.