addition rule The formal addition rule is P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B).

A good example from the related link, from the addition rule section is: Suppose we wish to find the probability of drawing either a king or a spade in a single draw from a pack of 52 playing cards. We define the events A = 'draw a king' and B = 'draw a spade'. Since there are 4 kings in the pack and 13 spades, but 1 card is both a king and a spade, we have (same formula as above in symbols): = 4/52 + 13/52 - 1/52 = 16/52 So, the probability of drawing either a king or a spade is 16/52 (= 4/13).

Conditional Probability

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Unit 6 > Lesson 9 of 12

Problem: A math teacher gave her class two tests. 25% of the class passed both tests and 42% of the class passed the first test. What percent of those who passed the first test also passed the second test? Analysis: This problem describes a conditional probability since it asks us to find the probability that the second test was passed given that the first test was passed. In the last lesson, the notation for conditional probability was used in the statement of Multiplication Rule 2. Multiplication Rule 2: When two events, A and B, are dependent, the probability of both occurring is:

The formula for the Conditional Probability of an event can be derived from Multiplication Rule 2 as follows: Start with Multiplication Rule 2.

Divide both sides of equation by P(A).

Cancel P(A)s on right-hand side of equation.

Commute the equation.

We have derived the formula for conditional probability.

Now we can use this formula to solve the problem at the top of the page. Problem: A math teacher gave her class two tests. 25% of the class passed both tests and 42% of the class passed the first test. What percent of those who passed the first test also passed the second test? Solution: P(Second|First) = P(First and Second) 0.25 = = 0.60 = 60% P(First) 0.42

Let's look at some other problems in which we are asked to find a conditional probability. Example 1: A jar contains black and white marbles. Two marbles are chosen without replacement. The probability of selecting a black marble and then a white marble is 0.34, and the probability of selecting a black marble on the first draw is 0.47. What is the probability of selecting a white marble on the second draw, given that the first marble drawn was black? P(White|Black) = P(Black and White) 0.34 = = 0.72 = 72% P(Black) 0.47

Solution:

Example 2:

The probability that it is Friday and that a student is absent is 0.03. Since there are 5 school days in a week, the probability that it is Friday is 0.2. What is the probability that a student is absent given that today is Friday? P(Absent|Friday) = P(Friday and Absent) 0.03 = = 0.15 = 15% P(Friday) 0.2

Solution:

Example 3: At Kennedy Middle School, the probability that a student takes Technology and Spanish is 0.087. The probability that a student takes Technology is 0.68. What is the probability that a student takes Spanish given that the student is taking Technology? Solution: P(Spanish|Technology) = P(Technology and Spanish) 0.087 = = 0.13 = 13% P(Technology) 0.68

Summary: The conditional probability of an event B in relationship to an event A is the probability that event B occurs given that event A has already occurred. The notation for conditional probability is P(B|A), read as the probability of B given A. The formula for conditional probability is:

The Venn Diagram below illustrates P(A), P(B), and P(A and B). What two sections would have to be divided to find P(B|A)? Answer

Exercises
Directions: Read each question below. Select your answer by clicking on its button. Feedback to your answer is provided in the RESULTS BOX. If you make a mistake, choose a different button. Answer choices have been rounded to the nearest percent.

1. In New York State, 48% of all teenagers own a skateboard and 39% of all teenagers own a skateboard and roller blades. What is the probability that a teenager owns roller blades given that the teenager owns a skateboard? 87% 81% 123% None of the above. RESULTS BOX:

2. At a middle school, 18% of all students play football and basketball and 32% of all students play football. What is the probability that a student plays basketball given that the student plays football? 56% 178% 50%

None of the above. RESULTS BOX:

3. In the United States, 56% of all children get an allowance and 41% of all children get an allowance and do household chores. What is the probability that a child does household chores given that the child gets an allowance? 137% 97% 73% None of the above. RESULTS BOX:

Independent Events

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Unit 6 > Lesson 7 of 12

Experiment 1: A dresser drawer contains one pair of socks with each of the following colors: blue, brown, red, white and black. Each pair is folded together in a matching set. You reach into the sock drawer and choose a pair of socks without looking. You replace this pair and then choose another pair of socks. What is the probability that you will choose the red pair of socks both times?

There are a couple of things to note about this experiment. Choosing a pairs of socks from the drawer, replacing it, and then choosing a pair again from the same drawer is a compound event. Since the first pair was replaced, choosing a red pair on the first try has no effect on the probability of choosing a red pair on the second try. Therefore, these events are independent. Definition: Two events, A and B, are independent if the fact that A occurs does not affect the probability of B occurring. Some other examples of independent events are:

Landing on heads after tossing a coin AND rolling a 5 on a single 6-sided die. Choosing a marble from a jar AND landing on heads after tossing a coin. Choosing a 3 from a deck of cards, replacing it, AND then choosing an ace as the second card. Rolling a 4 on a single 6-sided die, AND then rolling a 1 on a second roll of the die.

To find the probability of two independent events that occur in sequence, find the probability of each event occurring separately, and then multiply the probabilities. This multiplication rule is defined symbolically below. Note that multiplication is represented by AND. Multiplication Rule 1: When two events, A and B, are independent, the probability of both occurring is: P(A and B) = P(A) P(B) (Note: Another multiplication rule will be introduced in the next lesson.) Now we can apply this rule to find the probability for Experiment 1. Experiment 1: A dresser drawer contains one pair of socks with each of the following colors: blue, brown, red, white and black. Each pair is folded together in a matching set. You reach into the sock drawer and choose a pair of socks without looking. You replace this pair and then choose another pair of socks. What is the probability that you will choose the red pair of socks both times? Probabilities: P(red) = 1 5 1 5 1 25 1 5

P(red and red) = P(red) P(red) = =

Experiment 2: A coin is tossed and a single 6-sided die is rolled. Find the probability of landing on the head side of the coin and rolling a 3 on the die.

Probabilities:

P(head) P(3)

= =

1 2 1 6 1 2 1 12 1 6

P(head and 3) = P(head) P(3) = =

Experiment 3: A card is chosen at random from a deck of 52 cards. It is then replaced and a second card is chosen. What is the probability of choosing a jack and then an eight? Probabilities: P(jack) P(8) = = 4 52 4 52 4 52 16 2704 1 169 4 52

P(jack and 8) = P(jack) P(8) = = =

Experiment 4: A jar contains 3 red, 5 green, 2 blue and 6 yellow marbles. A marble is chosen at random from the jar. After replacing it, a second marble is chosen. What is the probability of choosing a green and then a yellow marble? Probabilities: P(green) P(yellow) = = 5 16 6 16 5 16 30 256 15 128 6 16

P(green and yellow) = P(green) P(yellow) = = =

Each of the experiments above involved two independent events that occurred in sequence. In some cases, there was replacement of the first item before choosing the second item; this replacement was needed in order to make the two events independent. Multiplication Rule 1

can be extended to work for three or more independent events that occur in sequence. This is demonstrated in Experiment 5 below. Experiment 5: Probabilities: P(student 1 likes pizza) = 1 0 9 P(student 2 likes pizza) = 1 0 9 P(student 3 likes pizza) = 1 0 9 P(student 1 and student 2 and student 3 like pizza) = 1 0 1 0 9 1 0 9 = 100 0 729 A school survey found that 9 out of 10 students like pizza. If three students are chosen at random with replacement, what is the probability that all three students like pizza? 9

All of the experiments above involved independent events with a small population (e.g. A 6sided die, a 2-sided coin, a deck of 52 cards). When a small number of items are selected from a large population without replacement, the probability of each event changes so slightly that the amount of change is negligible. This is illustrated in the following problem. Problem: A nationwide survey found that 72% of people in the United States like pizza. If 3 people are selected at random, what is the probability that all three like pizza? Solution: Let L represent the event of randomly choosing a person who likes pizza from the U.S. P(L) P(L) P(L) = (0.72)(0.72)(0.72) = 0.37 = 37% In the next lesson, we will address how to handle non-replacement in a small population.

Summary: The probability of two or more independent events occurring in sequence can be found by computing the probability of each event separately, and then multiplying the results together.

Dependent Events

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Unit 6 > Lesson 8 of 12

Experiment 1:

A card is chosen at random from a standard deck of 52 playing cards. Without replacing it, a second card is chosen. What is the probability that the first card chosen is a queen and the second card chosen is a jack? The probability that the first card is a queen is 4 out of 52. However, if the first card is not replaced, then the second card is chosen from only 51 cards. Accordingly, the probability that the second card is a jack given that the first card is a queen is 4 out of 51. The outcome of choosing the first card has affected the outcome of choosing the second card, making these events dependent. Two events are dependent if the outcome or occurrence of the first affects the outcome or occurrence of the second so that the probability is changed.

Analysis:

Conclusion:

Definition:

Now that we have accounted for the fact that there is no replacement, we can find the probability of the dependent events in Experiment 1 by multiplying the probabilities of each event. Experiment 1: A card is chosen at random from a standard deck of 52 playing cards. Without replacing it, a second card is chosen. What is the probability that the first card chosen is a queen and the second card chosen is a jack? 4 P(queen on first pick) = 5 2 4 P(jack on 2nd pick given queen on 1st pick) = 5 1 4 P(queen and jack) = 5 2 5 1 4 = 265 2 16 = 66 3 4

Probabilities:

Experiment 1 involved two compound, dependent events. The probability of choosing a jack on the second pick given that a queen was chosen on the first pick is called a conditional probability.

Definition:

The conditional probability of an event B in relationship to an event A is the probability that event B occurs given that event A has already occurred. The notation for conditional probability is P(B|A) [pronounced as The probability of event B given A].

The notation used above does not mean that B is divided by A. It means the probability of event B given that event A has already occurred. To find the probability of the two dependent events, we use a modified version of Multiplication Rule 1, which was presented in the last lesson. Multiplication Rule 2: When two events, A and B, are dependent, the probability of both occurring is: P(A and B) = P(A) P(B|A)

Let's look at some experiments in which we can apply this rule. Experiment 2: Mr. Parietti needs two students to help him with a science demonstration for his class of 18 girls and 12 boys. He randomly chooses one student who comes to the front of the room. He then chooses a second student from those still seated. What is the probability that both students chosen are girls? Probabilities: P(Girl 1 and Girl 2) = P(Girl 1) and P(Girl 2|Girl 1) = = = 18 30 306 870 51 145 17 29

Experiment 3:

In a shipment of 20 computers, 3 are defective. Three computers are randomly selected and tested. What is the probability that all three are defective if the first and second ones are not replaced after being tested? P(3 defectives) = 3 2 1 6 1 = = 20 19 18 6840 1140

Probabilities:

Experiment 4:

Four cards are chosen at random from a deck of 52 cards without replacement. What is the probability of choosing a ten, a nine, an eight and a seven in order? P(10 and 9 and 8 and 7) = 4 4 4 4 = 256 = 32

Probabilities:

52 51 50 49 Experiment 5:

6,497,400

812,175

Three cards are chosen at random from a deck of 52 cards without replacement. What is the probability of choosing 3 aces? P(3 aces) = 4 3 2 24 1 = = 52 51 50 132,600 5,525

Probabilities:

Summary:

Two events are dependent if the outcome or occurrence of the first affects the outcome or occurrence of the second so that the probability is changed. The conditional probability of an event B in relationship to an event A is the probability that event B occurs given that event A has already occurred. The notation for conditional probability is P(B|A). When two events, A and B, are dependent, the probability of both occurring is: P(A and B) = P(A) P(B|A)

Multiplication Rule of Probability

The addition rule helped us solve problems when we performed one task and wanted to know the probability of two things happening during that task. This lesson deals with the multiplication rule. The multiplication rule also deals with two events, but in these problems the events occur as a result of more than one task (rolling one die then another, drawing two cards, spinning a spinner twice, pulling two marbles out of a bag, etc). When asked to find the probability of A and B, we want to find out the probability of events A and B happening. The Multiplication Rule: Consider events A and B. P(A B)= P(A) P(B).

Note: Some books will say to take care that A and B are independent, but the rule can also be used with dependent events, you just have to be more careful in find P(A) and P(B). What The Rule Means: Suppose we roll one die followed by another and want to find the probability of rolling a 4 on the first die and rolling an even number on the second die. Notice in this problem we are not dealing with the sum of both dice. We are only dealing with the probability of 4 on one die only and then, as a separate event, the probability of an even number on one die only. P(4) = 1/6 P(even) = 3/6

So P(4

even) = (1/6)(3/6) = 3/36 = 1/12

While the rule can be applied regardless of dependence or independence of events, we should note here that rolling a 4 on one die followed by rolling an even number on the second die areindependent events. Each die is treated as a separate thing and what happens on the first die does not influence or effect what happens on the second die. This is our basic definition of independent events: the outcome of one event does not influence or effect the outcome of another event. Well look at examples later that deal with dependent events. Just keep in mind that what happens on one event will effect the other event. Let's Practice:

i.

Suppose you have a box with 3 blue marbles, 2 red marbles, and 4 yellow marbles. You are going to pull out one marble, record its color, put it back in the box and draw another marble. What is the probabilityof pulling out a red marble followed by a blue marble?

The multiplication rule says we need to find P(red) P(red) = 2/9 P(blue) = 3/9 P(red blue) = (2/9)(3/9) = 6/81 = 2/27

P(blue).

The events in this example were independent. Once the first marble was pulled out and its color recorded, it was returned to the box. Therefore, the probability for the second marble was not effected by what happened on the first marble. Notice that the final answer is always simplified. Some students find it helpful to simplify before multiplying, but the final answer must always be simplified.

ii.

Consider the same box of marbles as in the previous example. However in this case, we are going to pull out the first marble, leave it out, and then pull out another marble. What is the probability of pulling out a red marble followed by a blue marble?

We can still use the multiplication rule which says we need to find P(red) P(blue). But be aware that in this case when we go to pull out the second marble, there will only be 8 marbles left in the bag. P(red) = 2/9 P(blue) = 3/8 P(red blue) = (2/9)(3/8) = 6/72 = 1/12

The events in this example were dependent. When the first marble was pulled out and

kept out, it effected the probability of the second event. This is what is meant by dependent events.

iii.

Suppose you are going to draw two cards from a standard deck. What is the probability that the first card is an ace and the second card is a jack (just one of several ways to get blackjack or 21).

Using the multiplication rule we get P(ace) P(jack) = (4/52)(4/51) = 16/2652 = 4/663

Notice that this will be the same probability even if the question had asked for the probability of a jack followed by an ace.

Addition Rule of Probability

There are many rules associated with solving probability problems. This lesson deals with the addition rule. The addition rule helps you solve probability problems that involve two events. Even though we discuss two events (usually labeled A and B), were really talking about performing one task (rolling dice, drawing cards, spinning a spinner, etc.) and finding about the probability of two things happening in that one task. When asked to find the probability of A or B, we mean that A can happen, or B can happen, or both can happen together. This is what is stated in the addition rule. The Addition Rule: Consider events A and B. P(A What The Rule Means: Suppose we roll two dice and want to find the probability of rolling a sum of 6 or 8. This can be written in words as P(6 or 8) or more mathematically is P(6 8). Remember that OR (the union symbol ) means that one or the other or both events can happen. So what is the probability of getting a 6 or an 8 or both? You may want to refer to the dice chart in introductory lesson on basic probability if you need to familiarize yourself with the outcomes of rolling two dice. P(6) = 5/36 P(8) = 5/36 P(6 and 8 together) is impossible so the probability is 0. So P(6 8) = 5/36 + 5/36 - 0 = 10/36 = 5/18 B)= P(A) + P(B) - P(A B)

Since rolling a sum of 6 and 8 cannot happen together at the same time, we say that they are disjoint ormutually exclusive. When two events are disjoint, you do not have to worry about subtracting the probabilityof both events happening together since that probability will always be 0. Since it can sometimes save a step, a lot of students like to determine if events are disjoint before finding individual probabilities

Let's Practice:

i.

You are going to pull one card out of a deck. Find P(Ace

King).

The addition rule says we need to find P(Ace) + P(King) - P(both). If you need to familiarize yourself with the features of a deck of cards, refer to introductory lesson on basic probability for more information. P(Ace) = 4/52 P(King) = 4/52 P(both at the same time) = 0 P(Ace King) = 4/52 + 4/52 = 8/52 = 2/13

Notice that the final answer is always simplified. However, most of the time it is best to NOT simplify along the way so that youll have easy common denominators.

ii.

You are going to roll two dice. Find P(sum that is even or sum that is a multiple of 3).

The addition rule says we need to find P(even) + P(multiple of 3) - P(both). If you need to familiarize yourself with the possible combinations of rolling two dice, refer tointroductory lesson on basic probability for a chart showing all 36 possibilities. P(even) means how many ways to roll 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, or 12. P(even) = 18/36 P(multiple of 3) means how many ways to roll 3, 6, 9 or 12. P(multiple of 3) = 12/36 P(both) means what is the overlap. Notice that 6 and 12 occur in both places and have been counted twice. We need to subtract those out. P(both) = 6/36 So P(sum that is even or a multiple of 3) = 18/36 + 12/36 - 6/36 = 24/36 = 2/3.