Pakistan Journal of Science (Vol. 63 No.

1 March, 2011)

IMPACT OF BIRD FLU ON DEMAND OF CHICKEN MEAT IN FAISALABAD

M. Hussain, A. Ghafoor1 A. Saboor2, S. Zia3 and M. Ishaque4

* Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad;

1. Department of Marketing and Agribusiness, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad;
2. Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics, University of Arid Agriculture, Rawalpindi,
3. Department of Pest Warning and Quality Control of Pesticides (Research), Faisalabad.
4. Department of Forestry, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad.
Corresponding Author’s e-mail: [email protected]

ABSTRACT: This paper seeks to identify the major factors affecting consumer demand of chicken
meat in context of bird flu epidemic. Data were collected by personal interview method from the
consumers of chicken meat, selected randomly from the Faisalabad city. The impact of independent
variables (education, age, family size, income and dummy variable) was estimated using logit
regression analysis. The highest odd ratio (1.60) was found for the dummy variable used to capture
effect of low income on consumer demand for chicken meat followed by family size (1.45), education
(-0.98), income (-0.96) and age (-0.91). The study emphasizes the role of public and private
regulatory authorities to take measures for controlling bird flu and rumors related to it which shake
confidence of consumers in purchasing chicken meat.
Key words: Bird flu, Chicken meat, Poultry, Demand, Logistic regression.

INTRODUCTION centigrade), killing completely bird flue virus (IRNA,

2008). At the same time consumer’s doubts about this
Healthy food is very important attribute for virus and its injurious effects may not be underestimated.
many ultimate consumers. Poultry sector plays a In the recent past, this virus has severely hit poultry
dynamic function in the agriculture sector of Pakistan. industry of many courtiers particularly developing ones
The share of agriculture sector in Gross Domestic to which Pakistan is no exception.
Product (GDP) during 2009-10 was 46.7 percent. The major objective of this study was to identify
Similarly the share of livestock sector (including poultry) the relevant and important variables (factors) related to
during 2009-10 was 11.4 percent. The total poultry the choice of the consumers to buy or not to buy the
production was 610 million birds and total poultry meat chicken meat during time of bird flu epidemic. The
production was 707 thousand tons in 2009-10. research findings may be used for the formulation of
(Government of Pakistan, 2009-10). Poultry meat is a policies relating to ultimate consumers, demand and
good source of cheap, palatable and nutritious food supply of chicken meat and related food products.
protein. A poultry enterprise produces meat in six weeks,
and eggs in 24 weeks. It has been estimated that chicken MATERIALS AND METHODS
appears in the diet of more people throughout the world
than the meat from any other animal source. Poultry meat The cross-sectional data were collected from the
carries an advantage over red meat (beef and mutton) in Faisalabad city from the respondents on both the
terms of low percentage of fat and is therefore, termed as qualitative and quantitative variables. A random sample
non-fattening and good dietary source for the prevention of 100 consumers was interviewed to collect the data.
of hardening of arteries (Alam and Shaikh, 2007). The Logit model was used for data analysis. Logistic
There was an outbreak of avian influenza, regression procedures are most commonly used for data
commonly referred to as “bird flu,” caused by H5N1 analysis, when outcome variable is binary (Hosmer and
strain of in February, 2006 in Pakistan. It was detected in Lemeshow, 2000). The Logit and Probit models have
layer and breeder poultry farms at Abbottabad, Charsada, practical applications in several disciplines. In case of
Attock, Pindi Bhatian and Sehala and Tarlai areas of binary dependent variables, logit and probit models are
Islamabad. A flock of about 100 thousand birds was most widely used, because of their realistic importance
identified as infected and destroyed. (Hoetker, 2007). The ordinary Logit model:
Many chicken consumers are not afraid to
consume the chicken meat affected by bird flu epidemic.  P (Y = 1 | X)  n
They argue that the meat is washed, treated with vinegar ln   = α ∑ β i X i +e
and cooked at a very high temperature (80 to 100 degrees 1 − P ( Y = 1 | X )  i =1
(1)

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 Pakistan Journal of Science (Vol. 63 No. 1 March, 2011)

Where; -0.98 which means as the education of a consumer

P(.) = Probability that consumer buys the chicken meat increases by one year, there are 0.98 times fewer chances
during the bird flue epidemic (Y). that the consumer will buy chicken during the bird flu.
α = Constant term. That is higher the education of the consumers less likely
X = A set of core explanatory variables. the consumer will buy the chicken meat during bird flu
β = A vector of unknown parameters. epidemic.
e = Disturbance term.
The dependent variable of this model represents Table 1: Description of the Variables used in the
whether a consumer purchases chicken meat during the Demand for Chicken Meat
outbreak of bird flu or not. The characteristics and related
variables assumed to be affecting the purchase of chicken Variable Description
meat are given here: Dependent Variable 1 if the consumer buys the chicken meat
The independent variables; education, age and (consumer demand during the bird flu epidemic; 0
income are expected to negatively relate with the of poultry meat) otherwise.
purchases of chicken meat during the outbreak of bird flu. Factors included in the model as explanatory variables
Education Number of years school or college
While, the family size is expected to positively attended.
relate with the purchases of chicken meat during the Age Span of life in years.
outbreak. For comprehensive analysis a dummy variable Family size Total number of family members of the
(DV) was used to isolate the impact of family size in consumer.
relation to income on the demand of chicken during the Income (000 Rs.) Monthly income of the consumers (000
widespread of bird flu. Two income groups were Rupees).
designed that is low income group and higher income DV (Dummy 1 if the consumer belongs to a low
group (Rs. 19000 per month). Similarly the model used to Variable) income group; 0 otherwise.
analyze the impact of bird flu on the demand of chicken
meat is given below: Table 2: Descriptive Statistics of the Variables used in
Yi = β0 + β1 Education + β2 Age + the Demand for Chicken Meat
β3 Family Size + β4 Income + β5 DV + εi
Variable Mini. Maxi. Mean Standard
Deviation
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Education 0 16 6.90 4.62
Age 23 74 44.17 10.91
The descriptive statistics for the variables used Family Size 2 9 5.72 1.58
in the estimated logistic regression model for chicken Income 8 80 33.70 17.01
demand are presented in Table 1. The basic descriptive DV (Dummy 0 1 0.26 0.44
statistics about the variables is indicated in Table 2. The Variable)
decision to purchase or not to purchase chicken meat
during avian influenza epidemic mainly influenced by Table 3: The Coefficients and Odds Ratios of the
education, age, family size and income of the consumers Estimated Logistic Regression Model
(Bolliger and Reviron, 2008). The estimated coefficients
and the odds ratio of the logistic regression model are Variable Estimated Standard Significanc Odds
Coefficients Error e Ratio
revealed in Table 3. Among these four variables, three
Constant 3.82 1.813 0.035 45.77
variables were significant at 5 % level of significance Education -0.022 0.063 0.729 -0.98
except one (Education) and their signs were also as Age -0.096 0.030 0.001 -0.91
expected. The odds ratios shows the effects of individual Family 0.368 0.177 0.037 1.45
independent variables of the possibility or chances to size
purchase the chicken meat during bird flu, other things Income -0.042 0.023 0.070 -0.96
being equal. The odds ratio is computed by Dummy 0.471 0.882 0.593 1.60
exponentiating the parameter estimates for each Variable
explanatory variable. The ratio of the correct prediction is The Nagelkerk R2 = 0.52 Pseudo R2 = 0.35
Likelihood Ratio Test = = -44.58
80 per cent. The likelihood ratio test is significant at one
Hosmer Lemeshow Test = 3.22 Chi-square with 8 df (p =
percent level indicating the model has good explanatory 0.920)
power. The estimated Hosmer and Lemeshow's test p- Right predictions 80 percent
value was 0.92, which is nonsignificant demonstrating
that overall model was correctly specified. The odds ratio for consumers’ age is -0.91
The estimated odds ratio for education is which indicates that as the age of the consumers’ increase
there are 0.91 times fewer chances that the consumers

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 Pakistan Journal of Science (Vol. 63 No. 1 March, 2011)

will buy the chicken during the outbreak of avian flu. As In this context, it is suggested that a uniform policy for
the age of the consumers’ increases they are gaining more controlling and discouraging consumption of chicken
and more maturity and learn over time the importance of meat during bird flu epidemic, irrespective of income
contamination-free food that is why they avoid the groups, may be framed.
purchase of chicken during the widespread of bird flu.
The estimated odds ratio for family size is 1.45 which REFERENCES
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