Financial Modeling
Financial Modeling
Risk Aversion Risk-averse investors dislike risk and require higher rates of return
as an inducement to buy riskier securities.
Risk Premium (RP) The difference between the expected rate of return on a given
risky asset and that on a less risky asset.
Chapter-Risk and return
###The Risk-Return Trade-Off
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is a fundamental financial model that
describes the relationship between systematic risk and expected return for assets,
particularly stocks. It is widely used to estimate the required return on an investment
given its risk relative to the market.
E(Ri)=Rf+βi×(E(Rm)−Rf)
For example, if a stock has β = 1.5, it is 50% more volatile than the market. If the
market increases by 10%, the stock is expected to rise by 15%.
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) A model based on the proposition that any
stock’s required rate of return is equal to the risk-free rate of return plus a risk
premium that reflects only the risk remaining after diversification.
Realized Rates of Return, r Returns that were actually earned during some past
period. Actual returns (r) usually turn out to be different from expected returns (r ⁄ )
except for riskless assets.
Diversifiable Risk That part of a security’s risk associated with random events; it
can be eliminated by proper diversification. This risk is also known as company-
specific, or unsystematic, risk.
Market Risk The risk that remains in a portfolio after diversification has
eliminated all company-specific risk. This risk is also known as non-diversifiable
or systematic or beta risk.
Beta Coefficient, b A metric that shows the extent to which a given stock’s returns
move up and down with the stock market. Beta measures market risk.
Market Risk Premium, RPM The additional return over the risk-free rate needed
to compensate investors for assuming an average amount of risk.
###Effects of Portfolio Size on Risk for a Portfolio of Randomly Selected Stocks
### Figure 8.6, which shows that a portfolio’s risk declines as stocks
are added. Here are some points to keep in mind about the figure:
The portfolio’s risk declines as stocks are added, but at a decreasing rate;
once 40 to 50 stocks are in the portfolio, additional stocks do little to
reduce risk.
2. The portfolio’s total risk can be divided into two parts, diversifiable
risk and market risk. Diversifiable risk is the risk that is eliminated by
adding stocks. Market risk is the risk that remains even if the portfolio
holds every stock in the market.
3. Diversifiable risk is caused by such random, unsystematic events as
lawsuits, strikes, successful and unsuccessful marketing and R&D
programs, the winning or losing of a major contract, and other events
that are unique to the particular firm.
4. If we carefully selected the stocks included in the portfolio rather than
adding them randomly, the graph would change. In particular, if we
chose stocks with low correlations with one another and with low stand-
alone risk, the portfolio’s risk would decline faster than if random stocks
were added.
5. Most investors are rational in the sense that they dislike risk, other
things held constant. Consequently, for many investors an ideal strategy
is to hold a large diversified market portfolio that has low transactions
costs and fees.
6. One key question remains: How should the risk of an individual stock
be measured? The standard deviation of expected returns, s, is not
appropriate because it includes risk that can be eliminated by holding the
stock in a portfolio.
###The Relationship between Risk and Rates of Return.
In finance, there is a direct relationship between risk and expected return—higher risk
is associated with the potential for higher returns, while lower risk leads to lower
expected returns. This relationship is fundamental to investment decision-making.
Low Risk → Low Expected Return (e.g., government bonds, savings accounts).
High Risk → High Expected Return (e.g., stocks, venture capital,
cryptocurrencies).
3. The CAPM
E(Ri)=Rf+βi×(E(Rm)−Rf)
Proxy A document giving one person the authority to act for another,
typically the power to vote shares of common stock.
Proxy Fight An attempt by a person or group to gain control of a firm
by getting its stockholders to grant that person or group the authority to
vote its shares to replace the current management.
Takeover An action whereby a person or group succeeds in ousting a
firm’s management and taking control of the company
THE PREEMPTIVE RIGHT A provision in the corporate charter or
bylaws that gives common stockholders the right to purchase on a pro
rata basis new issues of common stock (or convertible securities).
###Types of Common Stock
*Classified Stock Common stock that is given a special designation
such as Class A or Class B to meet special needs of the company.
*Founders’ Shares Stock owned by the firm’s founders that enables
them to maintain control over the company without having to own a
majority of stock.
###Stock Price versus Intrinsic Value
Feature Stock Price Intrinsic Value
The market price at which a stock The true or fair value based on
Definition
is currently trading fundamental analysis
Determined Supply and demand, market Company’s financials, earnings,
By sentiment, news, speculation growth potential, and fundamentals
Highly volatile, changes More stable, based on long-term
Volatility
frequently factors
Affected by investor emotions, Determined by fundamental
Influence
trends, and external events analysis and valuation models
Can be overvalued or Helps investors determine if a
Investment
undervalued compared to stock is worth buying or
Perspective
intrinsic value selling
###Why do investors and companies care about intrinsic value?
For Investors:
For Companies:
Key Assumptions:
Advantages:
Capital Gains Yield The capital gain during a given year divided by the
beginning price.
Expected Total Return The sum of the expected dividend yield and the
expected capital gains yield.
Horizon (Terminal) Date The date when the growth rate becomes
constant. At this date, it is no longer necessary to forecast the individual
dividends.
Horizon (Continuing) Value The value at the horizon date of all
dividends expected thereafter.
### Corporate valuation model
A valuation model used as an alternative to the discounted dividend model to
determine a firm’s value, especially one with no history of dividends, or the value
of a division of a larger firm. The corporate model first calculates the firm’s free
cash flows, then finds their present values to determine the firm’s value.
### Preferred Stock
Preferred stock is a hybrid—it is similar to a bond in some respects and
to common stock in others. This hybrid nature becomes apparent when
we try to classify preferred stock in relation to bonds and common stock.
Like bonds, preferred stock has a par value and a fixed dividend that
must be paid before dividends can be paid on the common stock.
Vp=Dp/rp
Positive Alpha (α > 0)
🔹 Formula:
🔹 Example:
If a stock was expected to return 8% based on the market and its risk
(beta), but it actually returned 12%, its alpha = +4%, meaning it
outperformed expectations.
🔹 Formula:
🔹 Example:
If a stock was expected to return 10% based on its beta, but it only
returned 6%, then alpha = -4%, meaning it underperformed by 4%.
### Stock Price versus Intrinsic Value.
Stock Price fluctuates due to market sentiment, news, and speculation.
Intrinsic Value is stable, based on a company's fundamentals.
When Stock Price < Intrinsic Value, the stock is undervalued (buy signal).
When Stock Price > Intrinsic Value, the stock is overvalued (sell signal).
Chapter-14
Capital Investor-supplied funds such as long- and short-term loans from
individuals and institutions, preferred stock, common stock, and retained earnings.
Capital Structure The mix of debt, preferred stock, and common equity that is
used to finance the firm’s assets.
Optimal Capital Structure The capital structure that maximizes a stock’s
intrinsic value.
Business Risk:
Financial Risk:
Financial risk refers to the possibility of a company failing to meet its financial
obligations due to high debt levels (leverage), interest rate changes, or cash flow
shortages. It primarily affects leveraged companies (those that rely on borrowed
funds).
Firms should balance tax savings from debt with the risk of
financial distress.
The optimal debt-to-equity ratio is where the marginal benefit
of debt equals the marginal cost.