LECTURE 7

Continuous Probability Distributions

Lecturer: Nguyen Thi Thu Van

Email: [email protected]
 Contents
 Continuous Random Variables

 Uniform Continuous Distribution

 Normal Distribution

 Standard Normal Distribution

 Normal Approximations

 Exponential Distribution
Continuous Random Variables
 Continuous Random Variable
A continuous variable is a variable that can take
on any value within an interval. For instance

• thickness of an item

• time required to complete a task

• temperature in a room

• height
 Continuous Random Variable

 Continuous variables have the values that are

measured, while discrete variables have the
values that are counted.

 Sometimes we treat continuous variables as if

they are discrete, like age.
Probability Density Function
Probability Density Function
Cumulative Distribution Function
Examples
Expected Value - Variance
Expected Value and Variance
Common Continuous Probability Distributions
Uniform Probability Distributions
Uniform/Rectangular Probability Distribution
Uniform Distribution Characteristics

X~U(a,b)
 Example
For instance, you arrive into a building and are about
to take an elevator to the your floor. Once you call the
elevator, it will take between 0 and 40 seconds to
arrive to you. We will assume that the elevator arrives
uniformly between 0 and 40 seconds after you press
the button.

Calculate the probability that the elevator

takes less than 15 seconds to arrive?

Normal Probability Distributions
 Normal Distribution
 The most important distribution in both probability
and statistics

 Many numerical populations have distributions that

can be fit very closely by an appropriate normal
curve, including, for example, weight, height, ...

 Even when the underlying distribution is discrete,

the normal curve often gives an excellent
approximation.
 Normal Probability Distribution
 Bell Shaped f(x)

 Symmetrical
σ
 Mean= Median = Mode
x
μ
 Center is determined by the mean, μ
Mean
 Spread is determined by the standard = Median
= Mode
deviation, σ

 The random variable has an infinite X~N(μ, σ2)

theoretical range: -  to + 
 Normal PDF
 The formula for the normal PDF is
 Normal Distribution Shape
Changing μ shifts the
f(X) distribution left or right.

Changing σ
increases or
σ decreases the
spread.

μ X
By varying the parameters μ and σ, we
obtain different normal distributions
 Normal CDF
 For a normal random variable X with mean μ
and variance σ2 , i.e., X~N(μ, σ2), the CDF is

F(x0 )  P(X  x 0 )

PDF CDF

CDF

x0 x0
 Finding Normal Probabilities
The probability for a range of values is measured
by the area under the curve
P(a  X  b)  F(b)  F(a)

a μ b x
 F(b)  P(X  b)

a μ b x

F(a)  P(X  a)

a μ b x

P(a  X  b)  F(b)  F(a)

a μ b x
Example
Assume that the weight of boxes, X, is normally
distributed with a mean of 30 kg and a standard
deviation of 8 kg. Calculate the probability that a
randomly selected box weighs:

a) between 30 to 34.5 kg

b) less than 32 kg

c) more than 42.5 kg

Example

Analysis of 1000 long distance calls indicates that

the length of these calls is normally distributed with
expected value of 240 seconds and standard
deviation of 40 seconds.

a) What is % of the calls less than 180 seconds?

b) How many calls lasted between 180 to 300

seconds?
Exercise
Daily output of Marathon’s Garyville refinery is normally
distributed with a mean of 232,000 barrels of crude oil
per day with a standard deviation of 7,000 barrels.

What is the probability of producing

• At least 232,000 barrels?

• Between 232,000 and 239,000 barrels?

• Less than 245,000 barrels?

• More than 225,000 barrels?

Standard Normal Probability Distributions
Standard Normal Distribution
 Standardized Normal Distribution
 Any normal distribution can be transformed
into the standardized normal distribution (Z),
with mean 0 and variance 1
f(Z)
Z~N(0,1) 1
0 Z
 Need to transform X units into Z units by
subtracting the mean of X and dividing by
X μ
its standard deviation Z 
σ
 Example
 If X is distributed normally with mean of 100
and standard deviation of 50, the Z value for
X = 200 is

X  μ 200  100
Z    2 .0
σ 50
 This says that X = 200 is two standard
deviations above the mean of 100.
 Comparing X and Z units

100 200 X (μ = 100, σ = 50)

0 2.0 Z (μ = 0, σ = 1)

Note that the distribution is the same, only the scale has
changed. We can express the problem in original units (X)
or in standardized units (Z).
 Standardized Normal Table – C2
 The Standardized Normal table shows values
of the cumulative normal distribution function

 For a given Z-value a , the table shows F(a)

(the area under the curve from  to a )

F(a)  P(Z  a)

0 a Z
 Standardized Normal Table – C2
 For a given Z-value a , the table shows F(a)
(the area under the curve from  to a )
Example: .9772
F(2) = P(Z < 2.00) = .9772

0 2.00 Z

 In Excel: F(2) = NORM.S.DIST(z,1)

Example:
F(2) = NORM.S.DIST(2.00,1) = P(Z < 2.00) = .9772
 Standardized Normal Table
For negative Z-values, use the fact that the
distribution is symmetric to find the needed
probability: .9772

P(Z < -2.00) = 1 – 0.9772 .0228

= 0.0228
0 2.00 Z

.9772
.0228
In Excel:
F(-2) = NORM.S.DIST(-2.00,1)
-2.00 0 Z
= 0.0228
 Basic Steps for Finding Probabilities
To find P(a < X < b) when X is distributed
normally:

 Draw the normal curve in terms of X

 Translate X-values to Z-values

 Use the Cumulative Normal Table

  a μ b μ
P(a  X  b)  P Z 
 σ σ 
f(x)  b μ  a μ
 F   F 
 σ   σ 

a µ b x
a μ bμ
za  0 zb  Z
σ σ
Example
Suppose X is normal with mean 8.0 and standard
deviation 5.0. Find P(X < 8.6)?
X  μ 8.6  8.0
Z   0.12
σ 5.0

μ=8 μ=0
σ = 10 σ=1

Z
8 8.6 X 0 0.12

P(X < 8.6) P(Z < 0.12)

Standardized Normal
P(X < 8.6)
Probability Table
= P(Z < 0.12)
z F(z) F(0.12) = 0.5478
.10 .5398

.11 .5438

.12 .5478
Z
0.00
.13 .5517
0.12

In Excel: NORM.DIST(8.6, 8, 5, True = 1) = 0.5478

How to Find P(X > 8.6)?

P(X > 8.6) = P(Z > 0.12) = 1.0 - P(Z ≤ 0.12)

= 1.0 - 0.5478 = 0.4522

0.5478
1.000 1.0 - 0.5478
= 0.4522

Z Z
0 0
0.12 0.12
Example
Example. Analysis of 1000 long distance calls
indicates that the length of these calls is normally
distributed with expected value of 240 seconds and
standard deviation of 40 seconds.

 What is % of the calls less than 180 seconds?

 How many calls lasted between 180 to 300 sec.?

 What is the length of a particular call if only 1% of

all call are shorter?
Example. Bob’s exam score was 2.17
standard deviations above the mean. The
exam was taken by 200 students.

Assuming a normal distribution, how many

scores were higher than Bob’s?
Example. Joan’s finishing time for the
Bolder Boulder 10K race was 1.75 standard
deviations faster than the women’s average
for her age group.

There were 405 women who ran in her age

group. Assuming a normal distribution, how
many women ran faster than Joan?
 How to Find X value for a Known Probability?

 Find the Z value for the known probability

 Convert to X units using the formula:

X  μ  Zσ
Example. Suppose X is normal with mean 8.0
and standard deviation 5.0. Find the X value so
that only 20% of all values are below this X?

.2000

? 8.0 X
? 0 Z
 Find the Z value for the known probability
Standardized Normal Probability  20% area in the lower
Table (Portion) tail is consistent with a
Z value of -0.84
z F(z)

.82 .7939 .80

.20
.83 .7967

.84 .7995
? 8.0 X
.85 .8023 -0.84 0 Z

Convert to X units using the formula X  μ  Zσ

 8.0  ( 0.84)5.0
In Excel: NORM.S.INV(0.2, 8, 5) = 3.79
 3.80
Exercise. Suppose that a data set is normally
distributed with a mean of 45 and a standard
deviation of 3.8. Find the value of X if: .

a) 70% of the observations are greater than X.

b) 7.5% of the observations are greater than X.

Exercise. Assume that the data set is normally
distributed and 40% of the observations are
less than 18.

If the standard deviation is 4.5 find the mean of

this data set.
 Lowest – Highest – Middle Percentage
Highest percent
Middle percent

Lowest percent
Example. Find the associated z-score for each
of the following standard normal areas:

• Highest 10 percent;

• Lowest 50 percent;

• Middle 50 percent.
Example. High school students across the nation
compete in a financial capability challenge each year
by taking a National Financial Capability Challenge
Exam. Students who score in the top 20 percent are
recognized publicly for their achievement by the
Department of the Treasury.

Assuming a normal distribution, how many standard

deviations above the mean does a student have to
score to be publicly recognized?
Example. The fastest 10 percent of runners who
complete the Nosy Neighbor 5K race win a gift
certificate to a local running store.

Assuming a normal distribution, how many

standard deviations below the mean must a
runner’s time be in order to win the gift certificate?
Example. The weights of newborn babies in
Foxboro Hospital are normally distributed with a
mean of 6.9 pounds and a standard deviation of
1.2 pounds.

How unusual is a baby weighing 8.0 pounds or

more? What would be the 90th percentile for birth
weight? Within what range would the middle 95
percent of birth weights lie?
Normal Approximation to Binomial Distribution
Example. In a certain store, there is a .03 probability
that the scanned price in the bar code scanner will
not match the advertised price. The cashier scans
800 items. What is the expected number of
mismatches?
a) The standard deviation?
b) What is the probability of at least 20 mismatches?
c) What is the probability of more than 30
mismatches? Show your calculations clearly.
Normal Approximation to Poisson Distribution
Example. On average, 28 patients per hour arrive in the
Foxboro 24-Hour Walk-in Clinic on Friday between 6 p.m.
and midnight.
a) What is the approximate probability of more than 35
arrivals?
b) What is the approximate probability of fewer than 25
arrivals?
c) Is the normal approximation justified?
d) Use Excel to calculate the actual Poisson probabilities.
How close were your approximations?
Exponential Distribution
Exponential distribution is often used to model the
length of time between two occurrences of an event
(the time between arrivals)

 For instance

 Time between trucks arriving at an unloading

dock

 Time between transactions at an ATM Machine

 Time between phone calls to the main operator

Example of Finding Probability

Customers arrive at the service counter at the

rate of 20 per hour.

What is the probability that the arrival time

between consecutive customers is less than 6
minutes?
Example of Finding Waiting Time
For example, if the mean arrival rate is 2.2 calls
per minute, we want the 90% for waiting time
(the top 10% of waiting time). Find the x-value
that defines the upper 10%?
-- The End of Topic --
Thank You!