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4.1 Introduction To Probability

The document introduces the concept of probability, outlining three basic types: subjective, empirical, and theoretical probability. It defines key terms such as outcomes, events, trials, and sample space, and provides examples of calculating probabilities for various events like flipping coins and rolling dice. Additionally, it discusses the complement of an event and includes a tree diagram for visualizing probabilities.

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dctutor2005
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8 views2 pages

4.1 Introduction To Probability

The document introduces the concept of probability, outlining three basic types: subjective, empirical, and theoretical probability. It defines key terms such as outcomes, events, trials, and sample space, and provides examples of calculating probabilities for various events like flipping coins and rolling dice. Additionally, it discusses the complement of an event and includes a tree diagram for visualizing probabilities.

Uploaded by

dctutor2005
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Learning Goal: Introduction to Probability

3 Basic Types of Probability:


1. _____________________________________________________________________________________
Subjective Probability
- an estimate of likelihood based on intuition and experience
- example: “I think….”
Empirical (Experimental) Probability
2. _____________________________________________________________________________________
- an estimate of likelihood based on an experiment by the number of trials
- example: “ 3 out of 5 times I tried rolling a die is 2.”
3. _____________________________________________________________________________________
Theoretical Probability
- an estimate of likelihood based on analysis
- example: “There’s 50% chance of getting a head when flipping a coin.”

__________________________:
Outcomes possible results

__________________________:
Event an occurrence

Trial
__________________________: an examination/experiment

Sample Space
__________________________: all possible outcomes of an event

Notation: a number of elements of the event

PCA) =
Al, 0RPCA) -> 1

I number
of element of sample space
0 = #$%&''#()*; 1 = &--./' 100% &2 3ℎ* 3#$*

Example#1: Event: Flipping a coin Example#2: Event: Flipping a coin if both sides are head.

P(head) = P(head) = F = 1

O
P(tail) = t P(tail) = T = 0

Example#3:
Event: Rolling a die: P(1) = t P(4) = t

P(2) = t P(5) = t

P(3) = J P(6) = t

2
Example#4:
Event: Rolling a pair of standard dice to find the sum:

end
die
1 2 3 4 5 6 P(1) = P(evens) =
1st
die
- 58E
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 P(2) = ↓ P(odds) = ↓

2 36 2
3 4 5 6 7 8
P(3) = P(doubles) =
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 5: to 3=t
P(4) = P(prime) =
=T
7 9
=soIt
4 5 6 8 10
P(7) = P(composite) =
5 6 7 8 9 10 II E
6 789 10 11 12 P(not 7) =
E

P(A’)= Complement of event P(A)+P(A’)=1


A = event A doesn’t happen

P(A)+P(A’)=1
Example#5: Given the sample space {1,2,3,4,5,6,………50}
P(evens) = P(odds) = ↓
t
I

2
P(prime) = P(composite) =
92. 3. 5.7.11, 13,17.19.
23 29.31, 57, 41, 43, 473
== 34
P(perfect squares) = P(perfect cubes) =
F ⑤
P(not perfect P(not perfect
squares) = t cubes) =
47
5

Tree Diagram:
⑦Determine the probability of least
tossing at
2 tails with 3 coins.
·

1stcoin

my even as
E *i T(E)

TE) 3

(((*) (*) + ()" += = E


+ =

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