PROBABILITY

This is the likelihood of an event happening or not happening.

Probability deals with chances

Notation of probability

Probability can be denoted as

(i) a common fraction as 4�5

(ii) a percentage as e,g 80%
(iii) a decimal e.g. 0.08

Terms or words used in Probability

• Bias : Not being fair

• Random selection: selecting without knowing or considering
• Outcome : this is the result of the performance
• Trial: This is the performance
• Both, and: Are used for multiplication
• Either, or: used for addition
• Neither, nor : used for subtraction
• At least 3 : means greater or equal to 3

Probability lies between 0 and 1, this mean that, the largest number in probability is 1 and
the smallest is 0

General Probability formula

𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜
Probability =
𝑇𝑇𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜

Example 1: Numbers are written on the pieces of paper from 1 to 20 inclusive. Find the
probability of picking;

(i) a prime number

(ii) an odd number
(iii) a perfect square number
(iv) 2 or 3
(v) A number with two digits
(vi) 4
(vii) 30
(viii) a factor of 40

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 (ix) a number

Solutions
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20
8 2
(i) 𝑃𝑃(𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛) = =
20 5
10 1
(ii) 𝑝𝑝(𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛) = =
20 2
4 1
(iii) 𝑃𝑃(𝑎𝑎 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠) = =
20 5
1 1 2 1
(iv) 𝑃𝑃(2 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 3) = 𝑃𝑃(2) + 𝑃𝑃(3) = + = =
20 20 20 10
11
(v) 𝑃𝑃(𝑎𝑎 𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤ℎ 𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑) =
20
1
(vi) 𝑃𝑃(4) =
20
(vii) P (0) = 0
6 3
(viii) P( a factor of 40 ) = =
20 10
20
(ix) P ( a number) =
20

Task 1

Numbers are written on the bottle tops from21 to 40 inclusive. Find the probability of
picking a bottle top with

(a) An even number (b) prime number (c) a perfect cube (d) 30 or 34 (e) 50

(f) a multiple of 5.

Solutions:

21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40.
10 1 4 1
(a) P( even number ) = = (b ) P( prime number) =
20 2 20 5

1 1 1 2 1
(c) P (a perfect cube) = (d) P (30 or 34) = P (30) + (34) = + = =
20 20 20 20 10

4 1
(e) P (a 50) = 0 (f) P (multiple of 5) = =
20 5

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Experimental Probability

This is the type of probability in which experiments are carried out e.g. tossing a coin.

Example 2.

(i) A die is thrown, find the probability of obtaining

(a) An odd number
(b) A perfect square number
(c) A number more than 4
(ii) A coin is tossed, find the probability of a head showing up
Solutions

3 1 2 1
(a) P (odd number) = = (b) P ( perfect square number) = =
6 2 6 3

2 1
(c) P (a number more than 4) = =
6 3

1
(iii) P ( Head)
2

Task 2

A die with numbers 4, 5, 6,6,7,8 is tossed, find the probability of picking

(i) A prime number

(ii) A factor of 60
(iii) A number
(iv) An odd number
(v) An even number

Solutions
2 1 4 2
(i) P ( prime number) = = (ii) P( a factor of 60) = =
6 3 6 3

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 1 2 1
(iii) P (a number) = =1 (iv) P (odd number) = = (v)
60 6 3

4 2
(v) P (an even number) = =
6 3

Theoretical Probability

This is the type of probability in which theories are used to find the expected value.

Example 3

A die is thrown 30 times, find the number of times, the following numbers are expected
to show up.

(i) 4 (ii) prime numbers

(iii) Perfect cube

Solutions

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
1 3 1
(i) P (4) = (ii) P ( prime number) = = (iii)
6 6 2

Combined Events

This is when two or more events occur at the same time.

Example3

Two coins are tossed, find the probability of obtaining

(a) Two heads (b) at least one head

Solution

HT, TH, HH, TT

1 3
(a) P (two Tails) = (b) P( at least one Head) =
4 4

Methods used for Illustrating Combined Events

A. Listing: when listing events, order is an important factor, e.g. 4, 5 and 5, 4 are
different events.
Example 4
A coin and a die are thrown; find the probability of obtaing;

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 (a) Prime number and a head (b) a number greater than four and a tail.

Solution

Expected outcomes

Coin: H, T Die; 1, 2, 3,4,5,6

H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6

T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6

3 1
(a) P( prime number and Head) = =
12 4
2 1
(b) P( a number greater than 4 and Tail) = =
12 6

B. Using a Venn diagram

Example 5
If 𝜀𝜀 = {1, 2,3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12}, A= {odd numbers} and
B= {prime numbers}
(i) Show this information on the Venn diagram
(ii) Find the probability of
(a) A’ (b) B’ (c) A∩ B (d) A ∪ B (e) (A ∪ B)′ (f) A′ ∪ B

Solution

(i)

A = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11} and B = {2, 3, 5, 7, 11}

6 1 7 4 1 7
(ii) (a) P (A’) = = (b) P (B’) = (c) P (𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵) = = (d) P (A∪ 𝐵𝐵) =
12 2 12 12 3 12

5 6 1
(e) P (A∪ B)′ = (f) P(A′ ∪ B) = =
12 12 2

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 C. Using a Square Grid
A grid square is constructed according to the number of faces of the given events.
Example 6
Two dice are thrown together, find the probability of obtaining
(a) Two prime numbers
(b) Two equal numbers
(c) Sum equal to 10
(d) Sum greater than 10

1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6
2 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6
3 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6
4 4.1 4,4 4,4 4,4 4,5 4,6
5 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6
6 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6

9 1 6 1
(a) P(two prime numbers) = = (b) P( two equal numbers) = =
36 4 36 6

3 1 3 1
(c) P (sum equal to 10) = = (d) P (sum greater than) = =
36 12 36 12

Conditional Probability

This is a type of probability in which a condition is given. E.g replaced or not replaced.
There are three types of events under conditional probability.

1. Independent events

These are events which depend on each other to occur, and so the total outcome does
not chance.

Example 7

A box has red marbles and seven blue marbles. A marble is picked at random and its colour
is noted and then replaced. Find the probability of picking

(a) A red marble (b) a blue marble (c) both red marbles (d) both blue marbles

(e) both marbles of the same colour (f) both marbles of different colour

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(g) a marble (h) a white marble

Solution

Total outcome = 3 + 7=10

3 7
(a) P (Red marble) = (b) P ( blue marble) =
10 10

3 3 9
(c) P (both red marbles) = R× 𝑅𝑅 = × =
10 10 100

𝟕𝟕 𝟕𝟕 𝟒𝟒𝟒𝟒
(d) P (both blue) = 𝑩𝑩 × 𝑩𝑩 = × =
𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏 𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏 𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏

9 49 58 29
(e) P (both marbles of the same colour) = RR or BB = + = =
100 100 100 50

(f) P (both marbles of the different colour) = RW or WR

3 7 7 3
= � × �+� × �
10 10 10 10

21 21 42 21
= + = =
100 100 100 50

10
(g) P (a marble) = =1 (h) P (a white marble) = 0
10

Task 3

A box has 2 green discs and 6 yellow discs. A disc is picked at random and its colour
noted, then returned, find the probability of picking

(a) a greed disc

(b) a yellow disc
(c) both green discs
(d) both yellow disc
(e) both discs of the same colour
(f) both discs of different colour
(g) a red disc
(h) a disc

2. Independent Events
These are events which depend on each other events, therefore the total outcome
changes.

Examples 8

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 A box has two green marbles and three white marbles. Two marbles are picked at
random one after the other and not replaced. Find the probability of picking
(a) a green marble
(b) both white marbles
(c) both green marbles
(d) both marbles of same colour
(e) both marbles of different colour

Solutions
2 3 2 6 3
(a) P (a green) = (b) P (WW) = × = =
5 5 4 20 10

2 1 2 1
(c) P (GG) = × = =
5 4 20 10

(d) P (same colour) = P (WW) or P (GG)

3 2 2 1
=� × �+� + �
5 4 5 4

6 2 8 2
= + = =
20 20 20 5

(e) P (different colour) = P (WG) or P (GW)

3 2 2 3
=� × � + � × �
5 4 5 4

6 6 12 3
= + = =
20 20 20 5

Task 4

A bag has seven black balls and three red balls. Two balls are selected at random
one after the other and not replaced. Find the probability of selecting

(a) both red balls

(b) both black balls
(c) both balls of same colour
(d) both marbles of different colour
(e) at least one red ball

3. Mutually Exclusive events

These are events which cannot occur at the same time (events which cannot happen
at the same time).

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 Example
4 5
The probability that Kachama and Mwelwa will pass an exam is and respectively.
5 8
Find the probability that
(a) Kachama will not pass
(b) Mwelwa will not pass
(c) both of them will pass
(d) both of them will not pass
(e) only one of them will pass

Solutions
4 5−4 1
(a) P ( Kachama will not pass ) = 1− = =
5 5 5
5 8−5 3
(b) P ( Mwelwa will not pass) = 1− = =
8 8 8
4 5 1
(c) P ( both of them will pass) = × =
5 8 2
1 3 3
(d) P ( both of them will not pass) = × =
5 8 40
(e) P ( only one of them will pass) = P( Kachama pass) × P( Mwelwa will not pass)
+P( Kachama will not pass)× P( Mwelwa will pass)
4 3 1 5
= × + ×
5 8 5 8
12 5 17
= × =
40 40 40

TREE DIAGRAMS

This is a diagram in form of a tree with branches and each branch represents the outcome
of each probability.

1. A bag has three yellow marbles, two red marbles and three white marbles. Two
marbles are picked at random one after the other. Its colour is noted and not
replaced.
(a) Draw a tree diagram to illustrate the information above.
(b) Using your diagram in (a), find the probability of picking
(i) both red marbles (ii) both yellow marbles (iii) both marbles of the same colour (iv)
at least one red marble

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 Solution

(a) Total outcome = 2+3+3=8

2 1 1 3 2 3
(b) (i) P (RR) = × = (ii) P (YY) = × =
8 7 28 8 7 28

2 1 3 2 3 2
(iii) P (same colour) = P (RR or WW or YY) = � × � + � × � + � × �
8 7 8 7 8 7

1 3 3
= + +
28 28 28

7 1
= =
28 4
(iv) P (at least one red) = P (RY or YR or RW or WR or RR)
2 3 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 1
=� × �+� × �+� × �+� × �+� × �
8 7 8 7 8 7 8 7 8 7

3 3 3 3 1
= + + + +
28 28 28 28 28

13
=
28

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2. A box has three green discs and five blue discs. Two discs are picked at random one
after the other and its colour is noted then replaced.
(a) Draw tree diagram to illustrate the information above.
(b) Using your diagram above, find the probability of picking
(j) both blue discs (ii) both discs of different colours (iii) first blue disc then other
colour

Solution

3 3
(b) (i) P(Blue) = BB = ×
8 8
9
=
64
(ii) P (both discs of different colour) = BG or GB
3 5 5 3
=� × �+� × �
8 5 8 8

15 15
= +
64 64

30
=
64

15
=
32

3 5
(iii) P(one is blue and the other colour) = ×
8 8
15
=
64

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EXAMINATIONATION QUESTIONS FROM 2017-2014

[2017 P2 JULY, Q3 (a)]

1. In a box of 10 bulbs, 3 are faulty. If two bulbs are drawn at random one after the other,
find the probability that
(i) Both are good.
(ii) One is faulty and the other one is good.

[2017 P2 NOV, Q2 (a)]

2. A box of chalk contains 5 white, 4 blue and 3 yellow pieces of chalk. A piece of chalk is
selected at random from the box and not replaced. A second piece of chalk is then
selected.
(a) Draw a tree diagram to show all the possible outcomes.
(b) Find the probability of selecting pieces of chalk of the same colour.

[2016 P2 NOV, Q2 (b)]

3. A survey was carried out at certain hospital indicated that the probability that patient
tested positive for malaria is 0.6. What is the probability that two patients selected at
random
(i) one tested negative while the other positive,
(ii) both patients tested negative.

[2014 P2 NOV, Q11 (b)]

4. Two pupils are to present a school at a Human Rights Conference. If the two are chosen
at random from a group of 8 girls and 6 boys, calculate the probability that the two
pupils picked
(i) are both girls,
(ii) at least one is a boy.

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