1. An ice-cream seller has to decide whether to order more stock for the Bank Holiday weekend.

He
estimates that if the weather is sunny, he has a 90% chance of selling all his stock; if it is cloudy, his
chance is 60%; and if it rains, his chance is only 20%. According to the weather forecast, the probability
of sunshine is 30%, the probability of cloud is 45%, and the probability of rain is 25%. What is the
overall probability that the salesman will sell all his stock?

2. 2% of the population has a certain blood disease in a serious form; 10% have it in a mild form, and
88% don’t have it at all. A new blood test is developed; the probability of testing positive is 9/10 if the
subject has the serious form, 6/10 if the subject has the mild form, and 1/10 if the subject doesn’t have
the disease.

3. A conservative design team, call it C, and an innovative design team, call it N, are asked to design a
new product within a month separately. From experience, we know that:

(a) The probability that team C is successful is 2/3.

(b) The probability that team N is successful is 1/2.

(c) The probability that at least one team is successful is 3/4.

If both teams are successful, the design of team N is adopted. Assuming that exactly one successful
design is produced, what is the probability that it was designed by team N?

4. A class consisting of 4 graduate and 12 undergraduate students is randomly divided into four groups
of 4. What is the probability that each group includes a graduate student?

5. An electrical system consists of identical parts, each of which is operational with probability p,
independent of other components. The components are connected in three subsystems, as shown in Fig.
below. The system is operational if there is a path that starts at A, ends at B, and consists of operational
components. What is the probability of this happening?

6. We draw the top 7 cards from a well-shuffled standard 52-card deck. Find the probability that:

(a) The 7 cards include exactly 3 aces.

(b) The 7 cards include exactly 2 kings.

(c) The probability that the 7 cards include exactly 3 aces. or exactly 2 kings or both.

7. The MIT soccer team has 2 games scheduled for one weekend. It has a 0.4 probability of not losing
the first game. and a 0.7 probability of not losing the second game, independent of the first. If it does
not lose a particular game, the team is equally likely to win or tie. independent of what happens in the
other game. The MIT team will receive 2 points for a win and 1 for a tie. and 0 for a loss. Find the PMF
of the number of points that the team earns over the weekend
8. From a box containing 6 black balls and 4 green balls, 3 balls are drawn in succession, each ball
being replaced before the next draw is made. What is the probability that (a) all 3 are the same color?
(b) each color is represented?

9. There is a 50-50 chance that the queen carries the hemophilia gene. If she is a carrier, then each prince
has a 50-50 chance of having hemophilia independently. If the queen is not a carrier, the prince will not
have the disease. Suppose the queen has had three princes without the disease. What is the probability
that the queen is a carrier?

10. A shipment of 7 television sets contains 2 defective sets. A hotel makes a random purchase of 3 of
the sets. If x is the number of defective sets purchased by the hotel, find the probability distribution of
X. Express the results graphically as a probability histogram.

11. A box contains two coins: a regular coin and one fake two-headed coin. If we choose a coin at
random and toss it twice. Consider the following events: A= First coin toss results in a head, B=
Second coin toss results in a head, and C= Regular coin has been selected. Confirm if:

(a) Events A and B are independent

(b) Events A and B are conditionally dependent given the event C

12. One bag contains 4 white balls and 3 black balls, and a second bag contains 3 white balls and 5
black balls. One ball is drawn from the first bag and placed unseen in the second bag. What is the
probability that a ball now drawn from the second bag is black?

13. Consider the following system of inequalities.

0≤𝑥≤6

𝑦≤𝑥

𝑦≥0

If we pick a point at random that satisfies this system, what is the probability that the point also satisfies
the following inequality?

𝑥 2 + 𝑦 2 ≥ 16