PLATES: PROBABILITY

1. An academic department has just completed voting by secret ballot for a department head. The ballot box
contains four slips with votes for candidate A and three slips with votes for candidate B. Suppose these slips are
removed from the box one by one.
a. List all possible outcomes.
b. Suppose a running tally is kept as slips are removed. For what outcomes does A remain ahead of B
throughout
the tally?

2. Four universities—1, 2, 3, and 4—are participating in a holiday basketball tournament. In the first round, 1 will
play 2 and 3 will play 4. Then the two winners will play for the championship, and the two losers will also play.
One possible outcome can be denoted by 1324 (1 beats 2 and 3 beats 4 in first-round games, and then 1 beat 3
and 2 beats 4).
a. List all outcomes in S.
b. Let A denote the event that 1 wins the tournament. List outcomes in A.
c. Let B denote the event that 2 gets into the championship game. List outcomes in B.
d. What are the outcomes in (A or B) and (A and B) in? What are the outcomes in A’?

3. Suppose that 55% of all adults regularly consume coffee, 45% regularly consume carbonated soda, and 70%
regularly
consume at least one of these two products.
a. What is the probability that a randomly selected adult regularly consumes both coffee and soda?
b. What is the probability that a randomly selected adult doesn’t regularly consume at least one of these two
products?

4. Human visual inspection of solder joints on printed circuit boards can be very subjective. Part of the problem
stems
from the numerous types of solder defects (e.g., pad nonwetting, knee visibility, voids) and even the degree to
which a joint possesses one or more of these defects. Consequently, even highly trained inspectors can disagree
on the disposition of a particular joint. In one batch of 10,000 joints, inspector A found 724 that were judged
defective, inspector B found 751 such joints, and 1159 of the joints were judged defective by at least one of the
inspectors. Suppose that one of the 10,000 joints is randomly selected.
a. What is the probability that the selected joint was judged to be defective by neither of the two inspectors?
b. What is the probability that the selected joint was judged to be defective by inspector B but not by inspector
A?

5. Consider randomly selecting a student at a certain university, and let A denote the event that the selected
individual
has a Visa credit card and B be the analogous event for a MasterCard. Suppose that P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.4 and
P (A and B) = 0. 25.
a. Compute the probability that the selected individual has at least one of the two types of cards (i.e., the
probability
of the event).
b. What is the probability that the selected individual has neither type of card?
c. Describe, in terms of A and B, the event that the selected student has a Visa card but not a MasterCard, and then
calculate the probability of this event.
6. A particular telephone number is used to receive both voice calls and fax messages. Suppose that 25% of the
incoming
calls involve fax messages, and consider a sample of 25 incoming calls. What is the probability that
a. At most 6 of the calls involve a fax message?
b. Exactly 6 of the calls involve a fax message?
c. At least 6 of the calls involve a fax message?
d. More than 6 of the calls involve a fax message?

7. A company that produces fine crystal knows from experience that 10% of its goblets have cosmetic flaws and
must be classified as “seconds.”
a. Among six randomly selected goblets, how likely is it that only one is a second?
b. Among six randomly selected goblets, what is the probability that at least two are seconds?
c. If goblets are examined one by one, what is the probability that at most five must be selected to find four that
are not seconds?

8. Suppose that 30% of all students who have to buy a text for a particular course want a new copy (the
successes!), whereas the other 70% want a used copy. Consider randomly selecting 25 purchasers.
a. What are the mean value and standard deviation of the number who want a new copy of the book?
b. What is the probability that the number who want new copies is more than two standard deviations away from
the mean value?

9. Suppose that 90% of all batteries from a certain supplier have acceptable voltages. A certain type of flashlight
requires two type-D batteries, and the flashlight will work only if both its batteries have acceptable voltages.
Among ten randomly selected flashlights, what is the probability that at least nine will work?

10. The College Board reports that 2% of the 2 million high school students who take the SAT each year receive
special
accommodations because of documented disabilities (Los Angeles Times, July 16, 2002). Consider a random
sample
of 25 students who have recently taken the test.
a. What is the probability that exactly 1 received a special accommodation?
b. What is the probability that at least 1 received a special accommodation?
c. What is the probability that at least 2 received a special accommodation?
d. What is the probability that the number among the 25 who received a special accommodation is within 2.

11. An article in the Los Angeles Times (Dec. 3, 1993) reports that 1 in 200 people carry the defective gene that
causes
inherited colon cancer. In a sample of 1000 individuals, what is the approximate distribution of the number who
carry this gene? Use this distribution to calculate the approximate probability that
a. Between 5 and 8 (inclusive) carry the gene.
b. At least 8 carry the gene.

12. Suppose that only .10% of all computers of a certain type experience CPU failure during the warranty period.
Consider
a sample of 10,000 computers.
a. What are the expected value and standard deviation of the number of computers in the sample that have the
defect?
b. What is the (approximate) probability that more than 10 sampled computers have the defect?
c. What is the (approximate) probability that no sampled computers have the defect?

13. In proof testing of circuit boards, the probability that any particular diode will fail is .01. Suppose a circuit
board contains
200 diodes.
a. How many diodes would you expect to fail, and what is the standard deviation of the number that are expected
to
fail?
b. What is the (approximate) probability that at least four diodes will fail on a randomly selected board?
c. If five boards are shipped to a particular customer, how likely is it that at least four of them will work properly?
(A board works properly only if all its diodes work.)

14. Suppose that the number of drivers who travel between a particular origin and destination during a designated
time
period has a Poisson distribution with parameter ⋋= 4.7 (suggested in the article “Dynamic Ride Sharing: Theory
and Practice,” J. of Transp. Engr., 1997: 308–312). What is the probability that the number of drivers will
a. Be at most 10?
b. Exceed 20?
c. Be between 10 and 20, inclusive? Be strictly between 10 and 20?
d. Be within 2 standard deviations of the mean value?

15. Seventy percent of all vehicles examined at a certain emissions inspection station pass the inspection.
Assuming that
successive vehicles pass or fail independently of one another, calculate the following probabilities:
a. P (all of the next three vehicles inspected pass)
b. P (at least one of the next three inspected fails)
c. P (exactly one of the next three inspected passes)
d. P (at most one of the next three vehicles inspected passes)
e. Given that at least one of the next three vehicles passes inspection, what is the probability that all three pass (a
conditional probability)?

16. Two pumps connected in parallel fail independently of one another on any given day. The probability that
only the older pump will fail is .10, and the probability that only the newer pump will fail is .05. What is the
probability that the pumping system will fail on any given day (which happens if both pumps fail)?

17. Components arriving at a distributor are checked for defects by two different inspectors (each component is
checked by both inspectors). The first inspector detects 90% of all defectives that are present, and the second
inspector does likewise. At least one inspector does not detect a defect on 20% of all defective components. What
is the probability
that the following occur?
a. A defective component will be detected only by the first inspector? By exactly one of the two inspectors?
b. All three defective components in a batch escape detection by both inspectors (assuming inspections of different
components are independent of one another)?
18. Concrete blocks are tested and it is found that, on average, 7% fail to meet the required specification. For a
batch of nine blocks, determine the probabilities that (a) three blocks and (b) fewer than four blocks will fail to
meet the specification.

19. If the probability of rain falling during a particular period is 2/5, find the probabilities of having 0, 1, 2, 3, 4,
5, 6 and 7 wet days in a week. Show these results on a histogram.

20. A manufacturer estimates that3%of his output of a small item is defective. Find the probabilities that in a
sample of ten items (a) fewer than two and (b) more than two items will be defective.

21. Failure of a group of particular machine tools follows a Poisson distribution with a mean value of 0.7.
Determine the probabilities of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 failures in a week and present these results on a histogram.

22. When packaging a product, a manufacturer finds that one packet in 20 is underweight. Determine the
probabilities that in a box of 72 packets (a) two and (b) fewer than four will be underweight.

23. (a) Find the probability of having a 2 upwards when throwing a fair six-sided dice. (b) Find the probability of
having a 5 upwards when throwing a fair six-sided dice. (c) Determine the probability of having a 2 and then a 5
on two successive throws of a fair six-sided dice.
24. The probability of event A happening is 35 and the probability of event B happening is 23. Calculate the
probabilities of (a) both A and B happening, (b) only event A happening, i.e. event A happening and event B not
happening, (c) only event B happening, and (d) either A, or B, or A and B happening.

25. When testing 1000 soldered joints, four failed during a vibration test and five failed due to having a high
resistance. Determine the probability of a joint failing due to (a) vibration, (b) high resistance, (c) vibration or
high resistance and (d) vibration and high resistance.

26. The probability that component A will operate satisfactorily for five years is 0.8 and that B will operate
satisfactorily over that same period of time is 0.75. Find the probabilities that in a five-year period: (a) both
components operate satisfactorily, (b) only component A will operate satisfactorily, and (c) only component B
will operate satisfactorily.

27. In a particular street, 80% of the houses have telephones. If two houses selected at random are visited, calculate
the probabilities that (a) they both have a telephone and (b) one has a telephone but the other does not have a
telephone.

28. A batch of 1kW fire elements contains 16 which are within a power tolerance and four which are not. If three
elements are selected at random from the batch, calculate the probabilities that (a) all three are within the power
tolerance and (b) two are within but one is not within the power tolerance.

29. A box contains 14 40W lamps, 28 60W lamps and 58 25Wlamps, all the lamps being of the same shape and
size. Three lamps are drawn at random from the box, first one, then a second, then a third. Determine the
probabilities of: (a) getting one 25W, one 40Wand one 60W lamp, with replacement, (b) getting one 25W, one
40W and one 60W lamp without replacement, and (c) getting either one 25W and two 40Wor one 60Wand two
40W lamps with replacement.
30. A chain of video stores sells three different brands of DVD players. Of its DVD player sales, 50% are brand
1 (the least expensive), 30% are brand 2, and 20% are brand 3. Each manufacturer offers a 1-year warranty on
parts and labor. It is known that 25% of brand 1’s DVD players require warranty repair work, whereas the
corresponding percentages for brands 2 and 3 are 20% and 10%, respectively.
1. What is the probability that a randomly selected purchaser has bought a brand 1 DVD player that will need
repair while under warranty?
2. What is the probability that a randomly selected purchaser has a DVD player that will need repair while under
warranty?
3. If a customer returns to the store with a DVD player that needs warranty repair work, what is the probability
that it is a brand 1 DVD player? A brand 2 DVD player? A brand 3 DVD player?

31. An individual has 3 different email accounts. Most of her messages, in fact 70%, come into account #1,
whereas 20% come into account #2 and the remaining 10% into account #3. Of the messages into account #1,
only 1% are spam, whereas the corresponding percentages for accounts #2 and #3 are 2% and 5%, respectively.
What is the probability that a randomly selected message is spam?

32. A family consisting of three persons—A, B, and C—goes to a medical clinic that always has a doctor at each
of stations 1, 2, and 3. During a certain week, each member of the family visits the clinic once and is assigned at
random to a station.
The experiment consists of recording the station number for each member. One outcome is (1, 2, 1) for A to station
1, B
to station 2, and C to station 1.
a. List the 27 outcomes in the sample space.
b. List all outcomes in the event that all three members go to the same station.
c. List all outcomes in the event that all members go to different stations.
d. List all outcomes in the event that no one goes to station 2.

33. A fair die is rolled repeatedly until the third occurrence of a six. What is the probability that this happens on
the 10th roll?

34. A basketball player has a 75% chance of making a free throw. What is the probability that they make their 4th
successful free throw on their 7th attempt?

35. A factory produces electronic components, and 5% of them are defective. The quality control team checks
components one by one until they find the 2nd defective item. What is the probability that this happens on the 8th
component tested?

36. A customer service center receives customer complaints at a rate of 20% per call. If an agent is monitoring
calls, what is the probability that they handle their 5th complaint on the 12th call?

37. An insurance company models the occurrence of claims using a Negative Binomial distribution. If an
insurance agent expects to handle 3 claims before the month ends, and the probability of receiving a claim per
day is 0.1, what is the probability that they receive the 3rd claim on the 10th day?

38. A batch of 20 light bulbs contains 5 defective ones. If a quality inspector randomly selects 4 bulbs, what is the
probability that at least 2 of them are defective?
39. A standard deck of 52 playing cards has 4 Kings. If you randomly draw 10 cards, what is the probability that
you get exactly 2 Kings?

40. A company is hiring 5 employees from a group of 12 applicants, consisting of 7 men and 5 women. What is
the probability that at most 3 of the 5 selected employees are women?