Poisson Distribution

UTAH Poison distribution Poisson

Approx
conditioned to Binomial
praoalnwthzinawial
Distribution
As
Normal
normal
pension Approx
to

Distribution
approximation
iorwardaqrsarkward to Binomial
normal
Reading
Approximation

Data
Discrete countable Binomial
Data
passion
information continuous
Data
measurable
vymmalbistn
AS
 Ensample
locoins
independent
A-
Mooftleads Events
E=Meam
single pureed,=p=l/z
Expectation
e-

coin constant
} Pltait ) 9=112 probabilities
quit
-_

×nB( nip)
plx-af-nqggyn-npaxubllo.it
)
Atleast
No
.ofHeads= 10
choices Atmos
X= 0,1 ? ' - - i - -

skywards Moncton
.

Noland µ,
Heads
lessthen

Exactly
P(Atmost2 Heads) Platmoststeeads)
PIKED X=Ql, } . - - -

8. 9,10
photo) -181.K=DtPK=7

pfxzsj-l-pfk79218lgjopotwqlqfpttloggg.jp
Rn=gtRn=ioB =L -

p( Alteaststeeads plotlleast 2. Heads,

=P ( Hgs)
PHP)
=pfn=8)+Pfn=9)tPcn=10) =L Pfau )
-

p( Monotheist Heads)
Pfthonelhaiz Heads)
=p ( X >83=81×719) Pfxzz)=P(X73)
=L
EPCXEZB
-
 Poisson distribution
Discrete XUB.cn ;D
Data x u potty

ptx-n.s-rtglg.sn Tpp
-

probability
PK-eenj-e-dwnx-o.ly . - - -
a
-

Nl

pfxesz-iedttdtd.FI?tdy,?+ggPfn=I)=e-d#=dedPfn-
-

Pla -_g= e-a

2) =
EDIT
2 ! 3
Pla 3)-
-
= Edl d)
3T

pfxesj-edttdtE.tt?)
 1=1.8
p(X=4=e-4d5 -

2
Z
!
pfX73)
=
, PLAID-

Edythe)
=
, -

Ams

plxasfpfxehj-edftdtd.tt?tf.Y) vs

- p(X=3=E%g3DMS
3.
PIX> b) =PHq5J=l -
NAE 'D
PLATO)=Ed= e- 2ms

N=4
som
plxzij-i-PH-bpfx-ug-Yqfg.jp
= IEd -
't

=( Pgh
2
PHY I - e-
=
"
(e -
e-2) news

PIKE I Ed ( Itd -1¥?

Pfk73=l
-
-

plxest-eoze-tmn-z-EC.pk?eP
-MHHII.t ?t yI+fI.)P(X71)- l-edn=6P=PCx- !
 PIX-_a7=Ed(d) a plx=o)=2dE
'd
n?
Pla -07=21 e-d=2de-d
pfn=D=dEd e- dfl -211=0
e-tho inlet)=Ino
x.
1=1/2
Reject → Ine -_ Ino
Matts Error

1=24

MX7h)=I PHEU) -

"'"
¥edftd¥¥?f÷)
=
0.095868

PIX >n )
003 Trialqfenror
Method
PHX # PIX > y > 0.095868
,
e.

PIX>51=86×762 0.0220421=
- - - -

n> 5 n=6, 7,8 .

- - n . . -
N least
integertous
n=6
 02 1=1.46 ter d time
case # d internal 1.46
N - 2.5

1=3.65

PLX-oke-da-usiipfxeuke-dftdtdI.t ?tfY
,

1=0.8
P(X=zj=edfdj2-
Ams !
e

A
ii P( X -o
) = Ed T

D= ? 1=0.2 ysgttnn-ftoxst-o.se
Ins
"
"

e-1=0.9
pH > 1) =
, -

.
I dy n=o.at
t x
-
①not
1- e .
= 0.9
lnfe-adtJ-lno.ie
- o .at
to -
I - o
.
Stine -_ 1h01
In
Apply -

o.dt-lhfo.ly
t-2.88M.in
tous
Soft 4=1.8 pf2LXL6) =p( 3. EXES)

.t ?tfIsasusjn=IOpfn--l0)=l0qofqYpl0PfX7D=i-Pln--oJ
=
EKE

=/ - Ed
=pjo =
e
-
I -8
p , -

'°

=( 8)News
i.
I -
e-

" T d 2 T d
Sld
26=0.28210
2.5
0.7
-
x
2.5
t
-

a
0.7

1=2.8 P(X=o) 70.99 TEO 036

.

-
0.28T
PREY e -40.99 NIS

Edfltdtdz? ) -

.28txln(0.99)
o

-
0.28T Z -
o - 0100
INS t £0.03589
 URU 4=4.5 PIW >2)

ii
e-10.523 Apply -4=1210.523)
1=0.648 A-s

-3
d=µ pµy )=zyxP(4=17

e÷dP=zyxE÷b
e-
d(d÷ - 2nd
) - o

e-to
d( 12-241-06424--4=12
impossible 4=0
Reject
,
D=
vs
gtfo µ -42
Ans
Conditional probability
A
PIANB) far Prob
.

PLA B) =p ( given B) =

given prob
Tossing quoins itstcoin
A- Headon first coin H T
-

B
Head mandarin HCth
-

P( A/B) ? .=
and + ( MT) ( TT)
coin
-

Hai:B =

c. iii." =÷aa
2
EI
thus

lomint
I 1=1
Gomint
2
P(X72)= ?
u d time
X= ? !
? N
1 to
- - -
-
. -

1=6
16

P(X=5J= e- 61635ANS
k
I -

play
x. = 1.6
I. i -
Edlttd) 4=1.6
Ams
Neat
Finostmin
-30mi

qsy-pcntiixpin-%e3xe.IM
-

4!
I e- 6625 =

3322 -

5!
e- 6×1675
Is
To
 Dold )

iip(n=z) d
4
Days zpfxqyy
d Days
4-7
7
1=4/7 I -
a X=o, 1,334 ,
- - -
N
--
N
- 10

PIX -3=51412 I-
PIKED
news
1=4021
.

i-edfltdtd.tl?yINS 7

estray bday's 1=4/7

0 5 P(n=gxPca=5)
=
pH=o)×pgn=§ M ?

y
P(X=5) EDGE
4 I
1=4
32 5!

d
so Days 4=1 1=24/7
4
6
7
TEDx ENDS
a-
ST
2417
.

a. =

us Etch
Ky
TT
 dt-dm-df-3.cl

SOM 2
PIX > 3) =PfkqY= , -
PIKES) 1=39
=
, -

e-dlltdtI.tt?)n-vs
dm =3
-
"

1=0.8 .
) 1=3.1

Plot Xpfx > 32 =

e- 0.8×81 -
PUSH}

e' Htt
( # tf? )
e'' I'
Ht÷t÷3
' -

i -

Aus
 at #02 Poisson Distribution
.

2610312021

BinomialDistribution
xuB.cn ;D
hip parameters
n >so
np -5 PLAN
)=nqyqj -2pA
A- too 10017<5 Total Mo
oftrials
a-
.

PLI
of fav
p p A- No outcomes
q=i -

100 ,
.

9=1
VAR
PCO 05 .
µ=np p+q=1
mean
F- 001 qZnpq Pai or-

npop q= , p
np
-

q=l -

p=i - 0.01
MAP vAR=np = 0.99 -4
 Poisson Approx to Binaural n > 50

npL5

①
III. ios's Eff!-1ps ,
n- roams up
0 0,0428
Z
n -210 p(XL3)=e→( Htt 10.1778
f- 0.015 µ=np -4=3.15 20.3904
PIKE 27=0.3904
AN A-0,12

MP -4 's
p=q¥o
a- 45000
pfa -3,34 up

nn7p{Of 1--4-5
PIX -2,34)
20.1735
30.3422

40.5321=0.5321
PIK? EYE.it?td?)a-s
this

a Bln :P) n - 75
NP= 2 -
25=1
03
µ=o .

goin P(XL3) n > 50

p(XE3= 5414M¥22 npcs

= 0.8093 Ams
Ams
 Pokal )

pfxeuj-PIXE37-edfltdtz.FI?gXuBlniP
BinomialDistribution
)
0.8386 =

Events Ans
-

independent
fiaedneeqtrials
-

plan)
constant probability plan)
Xu
x
-0,133,45 - - -
in
-

(10500,0-0002) ,

A > 50 PHI ,33)

Np=2' 165
*
Ploetz, D= EdHt¥7¥3
I -

Poto) ¥
ANS
N >50
P=z n -19000
Npcs
d=np=y

it
R( X > 3) PH=o) 10.01 y=np
Ed Lool d =n

p(Xx4) Foo

1- PIKED e-¥0050.01
" 7115129
1- EVITA
-24.7¥?) -n gmµo , A- 11513
I -
0.4334 Ams tous
 alw

soft 31,434,563 B' hand

nggqjn-npa-e-4-5a-nspfk-07-450gcqghtopon-g.IO
PH=g=Ed
-_

Mbf # p
0111089

t-np-4.sn/oError--EMor-
Actually .
=
(g)
950

= 0.01086
Approximate tactual
Error -_
0.0002489 Ads

EnNWyo=O.0002489_ Noo
0.01086 ATVs
 Po ( 416)

Sofn p=O 008

P(Xz3)=P( Agh)
. "

a
A- 520

RAED
Tip 1=9.16 F-

Knp PK>3) =tEKHdtI÷tf?)

Ams

No Nn Don -4cm up .× ,

µ !
- -
- .. ..

-11 )

Ign
""

Edfd ) >d KEELY ""

'

-
any 7416
(htt)
! Intl)n ! n> 4.16-1

n!÷
>" ' b
> d ?d not n 3.16 >

Ft n
-117416µs
A- 4