204 Notes
204 Notes
Bernoulli distribution
A random variable X is defined to have a Bernoulli distribution if the discrete
density function of X is given by
{
x 1−x
f ( x )= p ( 1− p ) ,∧x=0 , 1 ,q=1−p
0 ,∧otherwise
1
¿ ∑ x px ( 1− p )
1− x
=p .
x=0
But E ( X 2) = ∑ x 2 f ( x )
x=0
1
¿ ∑ x 2 p x ( 1− p )
1−x
=p
x=0
2
Therefore Var ( X )=E ( X 2 )− [ E ( X ) ] = p− p2 =pq .
Example 7.1
A box contains 4 good fruits and 6 bad ones. If a fruit is selected at random from
the box, it can either be good or bad. The random variable
{
X = 1 ,if the fruit is bad
0 ,if the fruit is good
E ( X )=p=
2
5
and r ( X ) =pq=
2
5
2
( )( )
6
1− = .
5 25
1
¿ ∑ etx p x ( 1− p )
1−x
x=0
t
¿ ( 1− p )+ p e
∕
E ( X )=M X ( 0 )= p .
M X ( t )= p e . Thus
∕ ∕ t
M X∕ ∕ ( 0 )= p=E ( X 2 ). Hence
2
Var ( X )=E ( X )− [ E ( X ) ] = p− p =pq .
2 2
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
A random variable X is defined to have a binomial distribution if the discrete
density is given by
{( )
x
n p ( 1− p )n− x ,∧x=0 , 1, … , n , q=1− p
f ( x )= x
0 ,∧otherwise
n x
x=0 x ()
¿ ∑ x n p (1−p ) =np.
n−x
n
E ( X 2) = ∑ x 2 f ( x )
x=0
n x
X =0 x ()
¿ ∑ x2 n p (1−p ) =n ( n−1 ) p2 +np.
n−x
Example 7.2
In a certain community, the probability of a female birth is 0.3 . If ten individuals
are randomly selected from this community, calculate
(i) the probability that exactly six of them are males,
(ii) the average number of females in the sample. Assume that the rate of
survival is the same for both sexes.
Solution
Let X denote the number of females in the sample. Then assuming the binomial
distribution, we have
{( )
x
10 ( 0.3 ) ( 0.7 )10− x ,∧x=0 , 1, … , 10
P ( X )=f ( x )= x
0 ,∧otherwise
( )
¿ 10 ( 0.3 ) ( 0.7 ) =0.2001
4
10−4
x=0 x ()
¿ ∑ etx n p x ( 1− p )
n− x
()
¿ ∑ n ( p e ) ( 1−p ) =( p e + q )
t x n−x t n
x=0 x
The mean and variance of a binomial random variable X are determined by using
its m.g.f as follows:
n−1
M X ( t )=np e ( p e +q )
∕ t t
. Therefore
∕
E ( X )=M X ( 0 )=np ( p+ q )
n−1
.
¿ np , since p+q=1.
t 2 n−2 n−1
M X ( t )=n ( n−1 ) ( p e ) ( p e +q )
¿∕ t
+ np e ( p e + q )
t t
.
E ( X 2) =M ¿X∕ ( 0 )=n ( n−1 ) p 2 ( p+ q )
n−2 n−1
+np ( p+q )
2
¿ n ( n−1 ) p +np
2
Var ( X )=E ( X )− [ E ( X ) ] =n ( n−1 ) p +np−n p =npq .
2 2 2 2
Geometric Distribution
A random variable X is defined to have a geometric distribution if the p.d.f. of X is given by
{
x−1
p ( 1− p ) , x = 1 , 2, …
f (x) =
0 , elsewhere
Mean and Variance.
M x (t ) = E ( e tx )
∞
= ∑ e tx f ( x )
x=0
∞
= ∑ etx p ( 1− p ) x−1
x=1
∞ x −1
=p ∑ [ e t ( 1− p ) ]
x=1
[ 2
=p 1+ e t ( 1− p )+ ( e t ( 1− p ) ) + … ]
p
=
1−e t (1− p )
p
= , where q=1−p
1−qe t
pqe t
M 'x (t ) =
( 1−qet )2
E ( x ) = M 'x ( 0 )
pq q
= 2
=
(1−q ) p
2 pq 2 e2 t pqet
M ''x (t ) = +
( 1−qet )3 ( 1−qet )2
M ''x ( 0 )=
2 pq 2 pq
= +
(1−q ) ( 1−q )2
3
2q 2 q
= 2 +
p p
Var ( x ) = M ''x ( 0 ) −[ M 'x ( 0 ) ]
2
2 q2 q
()
2
q
= 2
+ −
p p p
q2 q
= +
p2 p
q2 + pq
= 2
p
q ( p+q )
= 2
p
q
= 2
p
Assessment
1. A study has shown that 80% of all families living in a certain residential
estate in Nakuru own a TV set. If 20 families are randomly selected from
this estate, compute the probability that
(i) all will have TV sets,
(ii) between 8 and 10, inclusive will have TV sets,
(iii) at most 10 will have TV sets,
(iv) at least 15 will own TV sets.
2. Suppose X is binomially distributed with parameters n and p; further
suppose that E(X)=5 and Var(X)=4. Find the values of n and p.
POISSON DISTRIBUTION
Poisson distribution
A random variable X is defined to have a Poisson distribution if its density is given
by
{
e−λ λ x
P ( X=x ) =f ( x )= x ! ,∧x=0 , 1 ,2 , …
0 ,∧otherwise 0
∞
e−λ λ x
¿∑ x
x=0 x!
∞
λ x−1
¿ e− λ λ ∑ x
x=1 x (x−1)!
¿ e λ e =λ .
−λ λ
But E ( X 2) = ∑ x 2 f ( x )
x=0
∞
e−λ λ x
¿ ∑ x2
x=0 x!
∞
e− λ λ x
¿ ∑ [x ( x−1 ) + x ]
x=1 x!
∞ ∞
e− λ λ x e−λ λx
¿ ∑ x ( x−1 ) +∑ x
x=1 x ! x=0 x!
∞ ∞
e− λ λ x e−λ λ x
¿ e λ ∑ x ( x −1 )
−λ 2
+∑ x
x=2 x (x−1)( x−2) ! x=0 x!
−λ 2 λ
¿e λ e + λ
¿ λ + λ.
2
∴ Var ( X )= λ2 + λ−λ2= λ.
Example 8.1
The number of male mates of a queen bee was found to have a Poisson
distribution with parameter λ=2.7. Find the probability that the number, X, of
male mates of a queen bee is
(i) exactly 2,
(ii) at most 2,
(iii) between 1 and 3, inclusive,
Solution
The probability distribution of X is given by
e−λ λ x
{
P ( X=x ) =f ( x )= x ! ,∧x=0 , 1 ,2 , …
0 ,∧otherwise 0
2
−2.7 2.7
(i) P ( X=2 )=f ( 2 ) =e =0.2450
2!
(ii) P ( X ≤2 )=P ( X=0 )+ P ( X=1 ) + P( X=2)
0 1 2
−2.7 2.7 −2.7 2.7 −2.7 2.7
¿e +e +e
0! 1! 2!
= 0.0672+0.1815+0.2450 = 0.4937
1 2 3
2.7 −2.7 2.7 −2.7 2.7
(iii) P ( 1≤ X ≤ 3 )=e
−2.7
+e +e =0.6470
1! 2! 3!
x=0
∞
e− λ λ x
¿ ∑ etx
x=0 x!
∞ t x
(λe )
¿ e− λ λ ∑
x=0 x!
t
¿ e− λ e λ e
¿ e λ (e −1) .
t
The mean and variance of X can be obtained using this m.g.f as follows:
M X∕ ( t )=λ e t e λ (e −1) .
t
∴ E( X ) = M X∕ ( 0 ) =λ
M X∕ ∕ ( t )= λ2 e2 t e λ (e −1) +¿ λ e t e λ (e −1)
t t
2
Thus Var ( X )=E ( X )− [ E ( X ) ] =λ + λ−λ =λ .
2 2 2
{( )
x
n p ( 1− p )n− x ,∧x=0 , 1, … , n , q=1− p
( )
f x= x
0 ,∧otherwise
m
Let m=np (constant) ⇒ p= n . Then
( )( )
x n− x
n! m m
f ( x )= 1−
x ! (n−x)! n n
( ) ( )( )
n −x
1 n n−1 n−x +1 x m m
¿ × ×…× m 1− 1−
x! n n n n n
But
( ) ( ) ( )
−x ❑ n
m n n−1 n−x+1 m −m
lim 1− =1 , lim × ×…× =1 and lim 1− =e .
n→∞ n n→∞ n n n n→∞ n
Therefore taking limits as n → ∞ and holding np fixed,
We have
x −m
m e
f (x)→ . Hence
x!
−np x
e ( np )
n→∞ x ()
lim n p (1−p ) =
x n−x
x!
for fixed np. Thus for large but finite n and small p, one can approximate the
binomial distribution with parameters n and p with the Poisson distribution with
mean m=np .
Example 8.2
A machine produces 1% defective items. Suppose it produces 1000 items. What is
the probability that an item selected at random is defective?
Solution
Let X be the number of defective items among the 1000 items produced by the
machine. Then X is binomially distributed with parameters
n=1000 and p=0.01. Therefore
{(
x
f ( x )= x )
1000 (0.01) ( 0.99 )1000− x ,∧x=0 ,1 , … , 1000
0 ,∧otherwise
1
1 ( )
P ( X=1 )=f ( 1 )= 1000 (0.01) ( 0.99 ) =0.00044
999
( )
1000 (0.01) ( 0.99 )1000−x ≃ e 10
x x!
And
−10 1
e 10
P ( X=1 ) ≃ =0.0005
1!
Assessment
1. Use the Poisson approximation to compute the following probabilities
(i) P ( X=45 ) , where X is a binomial random variable with parameters n=100
and ¿ 0.5 .
(ii) P ( X ≤2 ) , where X is a binomial random variable with parameters n=120
and ¿ 0.04 .
2. If X is a random variable with Poisson distribution satisfying P ( X=0 )=P ( X =1 ) ,
what is (X ) ?
1
3. If X has a Poisson distribution and P ( X=0 )= 2 , what is (X ) ?
Normal Distribution
A continuous random variable X is defined to be normally distributed if its density
is given by
{
−1 2
( x−μ )
1 2σ
2
The graph of the normal distribution, called the normal curve, is a belled-shaped
curve that extends indefinitely in both directions, with the horizontal axis as its
asymptote.
If a random variable X is normally distributed with mean μ and standard deviation
σ , then it is usual to write
X ∽ N (μ,σ)
Standardizing X we have
X−μ
Z=
σ
¿ e tμ E [ e tσZ ]
¿2
t
tμ 2
¿e e
1 2 2
tμ+ σ t
2
¿e
1 2 2 1 2 2
2 tμ+ σ t tμ+ σ t
M X ( t )=( μ+ σ t ) e
∕ ∕ 2 2 2 2
+σ e
2
∴ E ( X ) =M X ( 0 ) =μ + σ ,∴ Var ( X ) =E ( X ) −[ E ( X ) ]
2 ∕ ∕ 2 2 2
Var ( X )=μ + σ −μ =σ .
2 2 2 2
Example 9.1
A random variable X is normally distributed with mean μand variance σ 2 .
Determine the mean and variance of a new random variable Y =e X .
Solution
E ( Y )=E ( e X )=M X ( 1 )
1 2 2
Where M X ( t )=e
tμ+ σ t
2 is m.g.f of X.
1 2
μ+ σ
2
∴ E ( Y )=e
2
Var ( Y )=E ( Y ) −[ E ( Y ) ] .
2
E ( Y 2 ) =E ( e 2 X )=M X ( 2 ) =e 2 μ+2 σ
2
But
2 2
{
−1
1
2
z
f ( z )= √ 2 π e 2
,∧−∞ < z <∞
0 ,∧otherwise
¿Φ ( b−μ
σ )
−Φ (
σ )
a−μ
Example 9.2
A random variance X is normally distributed with mean 50 and standard deviation
10. Calculate P ( 45 ≤ X ≤62 ).
Solution
μ=50 ,σ =10 ⇒ X ∽ N ( 50 ,10 ).
¿ 0.8849−[1−0.6915 ]=0.5764.
Example 9.3
In an examination the average mark was 76.5 and the standard deviation was 9.5.
If 15% of the class scored grade A and the marks are assumed to follow a normal
distribution, what is the lowest possible grade A mark and the highest possible
grade B mark?
Solution
X ∽ N ( 76.5 , 9.5 ).
(
a−76.5
Standardizing X we have P Z ≥ 9.5 =0.15 or )
P(Z ≤
9.5 )
a−76.5
=0.85 .
Therefore, the lowest grade A mark is 87, and the highest grade B mark, is 86.
Example 9.4
If a random variable X is normally distributed with mean μand variance μ2, and if
P ( X ≤ 8 )=0.95 , determine P ( 4 ≤ X ≤ 11 ).
Solution
X ∽ N (μ,μ)
(
P ( X ≤ 8 )=P Z ≤
8−μ
μ )=0.95
i.e Φ ( 8−μ
μ ) =0.95 ⇒
8−μ
μ
=1.65
μ=3.02.
¿ P ( 0.32≤ Z ≤ 2.64 )
¿ 0.9495−0.6255=0.3240.
μ+1.28 σ =89 … … … … .. ( 1 )
Similarly
P ( X ≤ 94 ) =0.95 ⇒ P ¿
9.5 Assessment
1. Given that X is normal with mean 10 and variance 4, compute P (|X −10|>1.8 )
.
2. If X ∽ N ( 10 , σ ) and P ( X >12 )=0.1537, determine P ( 9< X < 11).
(X−μ
)
3. If X ∽ N ( μ , σ ), find the constant b so that P −b ≤ σ ≤ b =0.95 .
4. Let X be normally distributed with mean μand variance σ 2,and suppose that
( X ≤ 69 )=0.90 and P ( X ≤74 )=0.95 . Find μ and σ 2.
5. The time required to perform a certain job is a random variable having a
normal distribution with mean 50 minutes and a standard deviation of 10
minutes. Compute the probabilities that
(i) the job will take more than 75 minutes,
(ii) the job will take less than 60 minutes,
(iii) the job will take between 45 and 60 minutes.
Gamma Distributions
A continuous random variable X is said to have the gamma distribution
with parameters α and β ( α >0 , β >0 ) if its p.d.f is of the form
{
β α α −1 −βx
f ( x )= Γ ( α ) x e ,∧x >0
0 ,∧otherwise
α ∞
β
= ∫ x α +k−1 e− βx dx
Γ (α ) 0
β Γ ( α + k ) Γ ( α +k )
α
¿ . α + k =. k
Γ (α) β β Γ ( α)
Γ ( α +1 ) α Γ ( α ) α
Thus E ( X )= ❑ = = which the mean of X.
β Γ (α ) β Γ ( α) β
Γ ( α +2 ) ( α + 1 ) αΓ ( α ) ( α +1 ) α
Now E ( X 2) = 2 = 2
= 2
β Γ (α ) β Γ (α ) β
2
Therefore Var ( X )=E ( X 2 )− [ E ( X ) ]
( α +1 ) α α 2 α
¿ 2
− 2= 2 .
β β β
x=0
α ∞
β
¿ ∫
Γ ( α ) x=0
tx α −1 − βx
e x e dx
α ∞
β
¿ ∫
Γ ( α ) x=0
α −1 −(β −t ) x
x e dx
Γ (α )
( )
α α
β β
¿ . = ,t <β
Γ ( α ) ( β−t )α β−t
We can now use this m.g.f of X to determine the mean and variance of X.
M X ( t )=α β α ( β−t )−α −1
∕
Therefore
α −α −1 α
E ( X )=M X ( 0 )=α β ( β )
∕
=
β
α −α −2 ( α + 1) α
E ( X 2) =¿ M X ( 0 )=α ( α +1 ) β ( β ) =
∕ ∕
2
β
2
Therefore Var ( X )=E ( X 2 )− [ E ( X ) ]
( α +1 ) α α 2 α
¿ 2
− 2= 2.
β β β
Exponential Distribution
If a random variance X has density given by
{
−λx
f ( x )= λ e ,∧x >0 , λ> 0
0 ,∧otherwise
∞
1
¿ λ∫ x e
−λx
dx=
0 λ
∞
E( X )=∫ x f ( x ) dx
2 2
∞
2
¿ λ∫ x e
2 −λx
2 .
dx=
0 λ
2
Therefore Var ( X )=E ( X 2 )− [ E ( X ) ]
2 1 1
¿ 2
− 2= 2 .
λ λ λ
M X ( t )=E ( e tX )
∞
¿ ∫ e f ( x ) dx
tx
x=0
∞
¿λ ∫ etx e−λx dx
x=0
∞
λ
¿λ ∫ e−( λ−t )x dx= λ−t ,t < λ .
x=0
The mean and variance of X can be obtained by using the above m.g.f as follows:
∕ λ
M X ( t )=
( λ−t )2
∕ λ 1
∴ E ( X )=M X ( 0 )= =
( λ−0 ) λ
2
∕ ∕ 2λ
M X ( t )=
( λ−t )3
∕ ∕ 2λ 2
∴ E ( X ) =M X ( 0 ) =
2
3
= 2
( λ−0 ) λ
2
Therefore Var ( X )=E ( X 2 )− [ E ( X ) ]
2 1 1
¿ 2
− 2= 2.
λ λ λ
Example 10.1
Suppose that the number of minutes required to serve a costumer at service
counter has an exponential distribution with mean 2. Compute the probability
that the time required to serve a single costumer will exceed 4 minutes.
Solution
Let X denote the number of minutes required to serve a costumer at a service
counter. Then
1 1
E ( X )=2= ⇒ λ=
λ 2
{
−1
1 2x
f ( x )= 2 e ,∧x >0
0 ,∧otherwise
[ ] =0.1353
∞ −1 −1 ∞
1 x x
∴ P ( X >4 )=∫ e 2
dx= −e 2
4
4 2
Beta Distribution
A continuous random variable X is said to have the beta distribution
with parameters α and β ( α >0 , β >0 ) if its p.d.f is of the form
{
Γ ( α + β ) α −1 β−1
x ( 1−x ) ,∧0< x<1
f ( x )= Γ ( α ) Γ ( β )
0 ,∧otherwise
1
Γ (α ) Γ ( β )
NB: ∫ x α −1 (1−x )β −1 dx= Γ (α+β )
=Β ( α , β )
0
1
Γ ( α+β)
¿ ∫
Γ (α) Γ ( β ) 0
k α−1 β −1
x x (1−x ) dx
1
Γ ( α+β)
¿ ∫
Γ (α) Γ ( β ) 0
❑x
α +k−1 β −1
( 1−x ) dx
Γ ( α + β ) Γ ( α +k ) Γ ( β )
¿ .
Γ ( α ) Γ ( β ) Γ ( α + β+ k )
Γ ( α + β ) Γ ( α +k )
¿ .
Γ ( α ) Γ ( α + β+ k )
Putting k=1 we have
Γ ( α + β ) Γ ( α + 1)
E ( X )= .
Γ ( α ) Γ ( α + β +1 )
Γ (α+β ) αΓ ( α ) α
¿ . = .
Γ (α ) (α+β ) Γ (α+ β ) α +β
α (α + 1)
¿
( α + β ) ( α + β+1 )
2
Therefore Var ( X )=E ( X 2 )− [ E ( X ) ]
α (α + 1) α
2
¿ −
( α + β ) ( α + β+1 ) ( α + β )2
αβ
¿ 2 .
( α + β ) ( α + β +1 )
10.3 : Assessment
1. Show that, if in gamma density α =1, then the gamma density specializes
exponential density.
2. Show that the beta distribution reduces to the uniform distribution over
(0,1) if α =β=1.
¿ P ¿ Φ ( X )=u ¿
¿ ∑ f (x )
x: ϕ ( x ) =u
Example 11.1
Let X have the binomial distribution given by
{( )( ) ( )
x
4 3 1 4− x
,∧x=0 , 1 ,2 , 3 , 4
f ( x )= x 4 4
0 ,∧otherwise
¿ P ( X 2=u )=P ( X =√ u )
{( )( ) ( )
√u
4 3 1 4−√u
,∧u=0 , 1 , 4 , 9 , 16
g ( u )= √ u 4 4
0 ,∧otherwise
Example 11.2
Suppose that X has the discrete distribution given in the following table:
x -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
f (x) 4 1 1 1 1 1 4
21 6 7 1414 6 21
Find the distribution of the random variable U =3 X 2 +1.
Solution
The possible values of U are 1,4,13,28.
1
P ( U=1 ) =P ( X=0 )=
7
1 1 1
P ( U=4 ) =P ( X=−1∨X=1 )=P ( X=−1 ) + P ( X =1 )= + =
14 14 7
1 1 1
P ( U=13 )=P ( X=−2∨X =2 )=P ( X=−2 )+ P ( X=2 ) ¿ + =
6 6 3
P ( U=28 )=P ( X=−3∨X =3 )=P ( X =−3 ) + P( X=3)
4 4 8
¿ + = .
21 21 21
¿ P(Φ ( X ) ≤ u)
❑
¿ ∫ f ¿ ¿x) dx
x: ϕ (x)≤u
¿ P(2 X +3 ≤ u)
¿ P¿
1
(u−3)
2
¿ ∫ f ( x ) dx
0
1
(u−3)
2
¿ ∫ 2 x dx
0
1
(u−3)
1
¿ [ x 2 ]0
2 2
= ( u−3 )
4
dG(u) 1
∴ g (u )= = ( u−3 )
du 2
{
1
g ( u )= 2
( u−3 ) ,∧3<u<5
0 ,∧otherwise
Example 11.4
Suppose that X has a uniform distribution on the interval (−1 , 1). Find the p.d.f of
U =−ln |X|.
Solution
In this case the p.d.f of X is
{
1
,∧−1< x <1
f ( x )= 2
0 ,∧otherwise
¿ P(−ln| X|≤u)
¿ P(| X|≥ e )
−u
−u
e
1
¿ 1− ∫ dx=1−e−u
−e
−u 2
{
−u
g ( u )= e ,∧u> 0
0 ,∧otherwise
¿ P(Φ ( X ) ≤ u)
¿ P(X ≤ ω ( u ))
¿ F ( ω ( u) )
dG(u)
g ( u )=
du
dF ( ω ( u ) )
¿
du
dω ( u )
¿ f ( ω (u) ) for ¿ u< β .
du
Similarly if Φis continuous and strictly decreasing over the interval ( a , b ), then U
will vary over some interval ( α , β ) as X varies over the interval ( a , b ), and the
inverse function ωwill be continuous and strictly decreasing over the interval ( α , β )
. Hence for α <u< β ,
G ( u )=P(U ≤ u)
¿ P(Φ ( X ) ≤ u)
¿ P(X ≥ ω ( u ))
¿ 1−P( X ≤ω (u ))
¿ 1−F ( ω ( u ) )
g ( u )=f ( ω ( u ) ) | |.
dω ( u )
du
Example 11.5
Let X be a random variable with p.d.f given by
{
1
x ,∧0< x< 2
f ( x )= 2
0 ,∧otherwise
u=1−x ⇒ x =√ 1−u
2
dx −1
=
du 2 √1−u
∴ g ( u )=f ( ω ( u ) ) | |
dω ( u )
du
¿ f (x) |dxdu|
1
¿ f ( √ 1−u )
2 √ 1−u
1 1 1
¿ √ 1−u . =
2 2 √1−u 4
{
1
,∧−3 <u<1
¿ 4
0 ,∧otherwise