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Module 4 - Models of Traffic Flow (1)

The document discusses models of traffic flow, focusing on deterministic and Poisson arrival patterns. It provides example problems that illustrate the calculation of vehicle arrival probabilities using the Poisson distribution, including scenarios with varying time intervals and vehicle counts. Additionally, it presents an activity related to estimating the number of intervals with specific vehicle arrivals based on observed data.

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Jezrael Nacion
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53 views11 pages

Module 4 - Models of Traffic Flow (1)

The document discusses models of traffic flow, focusing on deterministic and Poisson arrival patterns. It provides example problems that illustrate the calculation of vehicle arrival probabilities using the Poisson distribution, including scenarios with varying time intervals and vehicle counts. Additionally, it presents an activity related to estimating the number of intervals with specific vehicle arrivals based on observed data.

Uploaded by

Jezrael Nacion
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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MODELS OF TRAFFIC FLOW

1. Deterministic, Uniform Arrival


- simplistic approach but not realistic.

2. Poisson Arrival
- the pattern of vehicle arrivals corresponds to some random
process.
𝝀𝒕 𝒏 𝒆−𝝀𝒕
𝑷 𝒏 =
𝒏!

Where: t = duration of the time interval over which vehicles are counted.
P(n) = the probability of having n vehicles arrive in time t.
𝜆 = average vehicle flow or arrival rate (in vehicles per unit time).
EXAMPLE PROBLEM 1

An engineer counts 360 veh/h at a specific highway location.


Assuming that the arrival of vehicles at this highway location is
Poisson distributed, estimate the probabilities of having 0, 1, 2, 3, 4
and 5 or more vehicles arriving over a 20-second interval.
𝑞 = 360 veh/hr 2 0 𝑒 −2
𝑃 0 = = 0.135
360 0!
𝜆= = 0.1 veh/s
3600 2 1 𝑒 −2
𝑡 = 20 s 𝑃 1 = = 0.271
1!
𝜆𝑡 = 0.1 20 = 2 2 2 𝑒 −2
𝑃 2 = = 0.271
2!
2 3 𝑒 −2
𝑃 3 = = 0.180
3!
2 4 𝑒 −2
𝑃 4 = = 0.090
4!
𝑃 𝑛 ≥ 5 = 1.0 − 𝑃 𝑛 < 5
𝑃 𝑛 < 5 = 0.135 + 0.271 + 0.271 + 0.180 + 0.090 = 0.947
𝑃 𝑛 ≥ 5 = 1.0 − 0.947 = 0.053
EXAMPLE PROBLEM 2

Consider the traffic situation in the previous problem (i.e., 360


veh/h). Again assume that the vehicle arrivals are Poisson
distributed. What is the probability that the gap between
successive vehicles will be less than 8 seconds, and what is the
probability that the gap between successive vehicles will be
between 8 and 10 seconds?
Let:
𝑞 = vehicle arrival (veh/hr)
𝑞
𝜆 = vehicle arrival (veh/s) =
3600
𝜆𝑡 𝑛 𝑒 −𝜆𝑡 𝑞𝑡Τ3600 𝑛 𝑒 −𝑞𝑡Τ3600
𝑃 𝑛 = =
𝑛! 𝑛!
𝑃 0 = 𝑒 −𝑞𝑡Τ3600
𝑃 0 = 𝑃 ℎ ≥ 𝑡 = 𝑒 −𝑞𝑡Τ3600
𝑞 = 360 veh/hr
360 8
− 3600
𝑃 ℎ < 8 = 1.0 − 𝑃 ℎ ≥ 8 = 1.0 − 𝑒 = 0.551
𝑃 8 < ℎ < 10 = 𝑃 ℎ ≥ 8 − 𝑃 ≥ 10
360 8 360 10
− 3600 − 3600
𝑃 8 < ℎ < 10 = 𝑒 −𝑒
𝑃 8 < ℎ < 10 = 0.449
EXAMPLE PROBLEM 3

An observer has determined that the time headways between


successive vehicles on a section of highway are exponentially
distributed and that 60% of the headways between vehicles are
13 seconds or greater. If the observer decides to count traffic in
30-seconds intervals, estimate the probability of the observer
counting exactly four vehicles in an interval.
𝑃 ℎ ≥ 13 = 0.60 = 𝑒 −𝑞 13 Τ3600

−𝑞 13
ln 0.60 =
3600
𝑞 = 141.46 veh/hr
𝑡 = 30 s

141.46 30 Τ3600 4 𝑒 −141.46 30 Τ3600


𝑃 4 = = 0.024
4!
ACTIVITY

At a specified point on a highway, vehicles are known to arrive


according to a Poisson process. Vehicles are counted in 20-second
intervals and vehicle counts are taken in 120 of these time
intervals. It is noted that no cars arrive in 18 of these 120
intervals. Approximate the number of these 120 intervals in which
exactly three cars arrive.

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