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Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
CONTENTS
Preface xvi

1 Introduction to Business Analytics 1


1-1 Introduction 3
1-2 Overview of the Book 4
1-2a The Methods 4
1-2b The Software 6
1-3 Introduction to Spreadsheet Modeling 8
1-3a Basic Spreadsheet Modeling: Concepts and Best Practices 9
1-3b Cost Projections 12
1-3c Breakeven Analysis 15
1-3d Ordering with Quantity Discounts and Demand Uncertainty 20
1-3e Estimating the Relationship between Price and Demand 24
1-3f Decisions Involving the Time Value of Money 29
1-4 Conclusion 33

PART 1 Data Analysis 37


2 Describing the Distribution of a Variable 38
2-1 Introduction 39
2-2 Basic Concepts 41
2-2a Populations and Samples 41
2-2b Data Sets, Variables, and Observations 41
2-2c Data Types 42
2-3 Summarizing Categorical Variables 45
2-4 Summarizing Numeric Variables 49
2-4a Numeric Summary Measures 49
2-4b Charts for Numeric Variables 57
2-5 Time Series Data 62
2-6 Outliers and Missing Values 69
2-7 Excel Tables for Filtering, Sorting, and Summarizing 71
2-8 Conclusion 77
Appendix: Introduction to StatTools 83

3 Finding Relationships among Variables 84


3-1 Introduction 85
3-2 Relationships among Categorical Variables 86

Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
CONTENTS vii

3-3 Relationships among Categorical Variables


and a Numeric Variable 89
3-4 Relationships among Numeric Variables 96
3-4a Scatterplots 96
3-4b Correlation and Covariance 101
3-5 Pivot Tables 106
3-6 Conclusion 126
Appendix: Using StatTools to Find Relationships 131

4 Business Intelligence (BI) Tools for Data Analysis 132


4-1 Introduction 133
4-2 Importing Data into Excel with Power Query 134
4-2a Introduction to Relational Databases 134
4-2b Excel’s Data Model 139
4-2c Creating and Editing Queries 146
4-3 Data Analysis with Power Pivot 152
4-3a Basing Pivot Tables on a Data Model 154
4-3b Calculated Columns, Measures, and the DAX Language 154
4-4 Data Visualization with Tableau Public 162
4-5 Data Cleansing 172
4-6 Conclusion 178

PART 2 Probability and Decision Making under Uncertainty 183


5 Probability and Probability Distributions 184
5-1 Introduction 185
5-2 Probability Essentials 186
5-2a Rule of Complements 187
5-2b Addition Rule 187
5-2c Conditional Probability and the Multiplication Rule 188
5-2d Probabilistic Independence 190
5-2e Equally Likely Events 191
5-2f Subjective Versus Objective Probabilities 192
5-3 Probability Distribution of a Random Variable 194
5-3a Summary Measures of a Probability Distribution 195
5-3b Conditional Mean and Variance 198
5-4 The Normal Distribution 200
5-4a Continuous Distributions and Density Functions 200
5-4b The Normal Density Function 201
5-4c Standardizing: Z-Values 202
5-4d Normal Tables and Z-Values 204

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viii CONTENTS

5-4e Normal Calculations in Excel 205


5-4f Empirical Rules Revisited 208
5-4g Weighted Sums of Normal Random Variables 208
5-4h Normal Distribution Examples 209
5-5 The Binomial Distribution 214
5-5a Mean and Standard Deviation of the Binomial Distribution 217
5-5b The Binomial Distribution in the Context of Sampling 217
5-5c The Normal Approximation to the Binomial 218
5-5d Binomial Distribution Examples 219
5-6 The Poisson and Exponential Distributions 226
5-6a The Poisson Distribution 227
5-6b The Exponential Distribution 229
5-7 Conclusion 231

6 Decision Making under Uncertainty 242


6-1 Introduction 243
6-2 Elements of Decision Analysis 244
6-3 EMV and Decision Trees 247
6-4 One-Stage Decision Problems 251
6-5 The PrecisionTree Add-In 254
6-6 Multistage Decision Problems 257
6.6a Bayes’ Rule 262
6-6b The Value of Information 267
6-6c Sensitivity Analysis 270
6-7 The Role of Risk Aversion 274
6-7a Utility Functions 275
6-7b Exponential Utility 275
6-7c Certainty Equivalents 278
6-7d Is Expected Utility Maximization Used? 279
6-8 Conclusion 280

PART 3 Statistical Inference 293


7 Sampling and Sampling Distributions 294
7-1 Introduction 295
7-2 Sampling Terminology 295
7-3 Methods for Selecting Random Samples 297
7-3a Simple Random Sampling 297
7-3b Systematic Sampling 301
7-3c Stratified Sampling 301

Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
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CONTENTS ix

7-3d Cluster Sampling 303


7-3e Multistage Sampling 303
7-4 Introduction to Estimation 305
7-4a Sources of Estimation Error 305
7-4b Key Terms in Sampling 306
7-4c Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean 307
7-4d The Central Limit Theorem 312
7-4e Sample Size Selection 317
7-4f Summary of Key Ideas in Simple Random Sampling 318
7-5 Conclusion 320

8 Confidence Interval Estimation 323


8-1 Introduction 323
8-2 Sampling Distributions 325
8-2a The t Distribution 326
8-2b Other Sampling Distributions 327
8-3 Confidence Interval for a Mean 328
8-4 Confidence Interval for a Total 333
8-5 Confidence Interval for a Proportion 336
8-6 Confidence Interval for a Standard Deviation 340
8-7 Confidence Interval for the Difference between Means 343
8-7a Independent Samples 344
8-7b Paired Samples 346
8-8 Confidence Interval for the Difference between Proportions 348
8-9 Sample Size Selection 351
8-10 Conclusion 358

9 Hypothesis Testing 368


9-1 Introduction 369
9-2 Concepts in Hypothesis Testing 370
9-2a Null and Alternative Hypotheses 370
9-2b One-Tailed Versus Two-Tailed Tests 371
9-2c  Types of Errors 372
9-2d Significance Level and Rejection Region 372
9-2e Significance from p-values 373
9-2f Type II Errors and Power 375
9-2g Hypothesis Tests and Confidence Intervals 375
9-2h Practical Versus Statistical Significance 375
9-3 Hypothesis Tests for a Population Mean 376
9-4 Hypothesis Tests for Other Parameters 380

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x CONTENTS

9-4a Hypothesis Test for a Population Proportion 380


9-4b Hypothesis Tests for Difference between Population Means 382
9-4c Hypothesis Test for Equal Population Variances 388
9-4d Hypothesis Test for Difference between Population Proportions 388
9-5 Tests for Normality 395
9-6 Chi-Square Test for Independence 401
9-7 Conclusion 404

PART 4 Regression Analysis and Time Series Forecasting 411


10 Regression Analysis: Estimating Relationships 412
10-1 Introduction 413
10-2 Scatterplots: Graphing Relationships 415
10-3 Correlations: Indicators of Linear Relationships 422
10-4 Simple Linear Regression 424
10-4a Least Squares Estimation 424
10-4b Standard Error of Estimate 431
10-4c R-Square 432
10-5 Multiple Regression 435
10-5a Interpretation of Regression Coefficients 436
10-5b Interpretation of Standard Error of Estimate and R-Square 439
10-6 Modeling Possibilities 442
10-6a Dummy Variables 442
10-6b Interaction Variables 448
10-6c Nonlinear Transformations 452
10-7 Validation of the Fit 461
10-8 Conclusion 463

11 Regression Analysis: Statistical Inference 472


11-1 Introduction 473
11-2 The Statistical Model 474
11-3 Inferences About the Regression Coefficients 477
11-3a Sampling Distribution of the Regression Coefficients 478
11-3b Hypothesis Tests for the Regression Coefficients and p-Values 480
11-3c A Test for the Overall Fit: The ANOVA Table 481
11-4 Multicollinearity 485
11-5 Include/Exclude Decisions 489
11-6 Stepwise Regression 494
11-7 Outliers 499

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CONTENTS xi

11-8 Violations of Regression Assumptions 504


11-8a Nonconstant Error Variance 504
11-8b Nonnormality of Residuals 504
11-8c Autocorrelated Residuals 505
11-9 Prediction 507
11-10 Conclusion 512

12 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting 523


12-1 Introduction 524
12-2 Forecasting Methods: An Overview 525
12-2a Extrapolation Models 525
12-2b Econometric Models 526
12-2c Combining Forecasts 526
12-2d Components of Time Series Data 527
12-2e Measures of Accuracy 529
12-3 Testing for Randomness 531
12-3a The Runs Test 534
12-3b Autocorrelation 535
12-4 Regression-Based Trend Models 539
12-4a Linear Trend 539
12-4b Exponential Trend 541
12-5 The Random Walk Model 544
12-6 Moving Averages Forecasts 547
12-7 Exponential Smoothing Forecasts 551
12-7a Simple Exponential Smoothing 552
12-7b Holt’s Model for Trend 556
12-8 Seasonal Models 560
12-8a Winters’ Exponential Smoothing Model 561
12-8b Deseasonalizing: The Ratio-to-Moving-Averages Method 564
12-8c Estimating Seasonality with Regression 565
12-9 Conclusion 569

PART 5 Optimization and Simulation Modeling 575


13 Introduction to Optimization Modeling 576
13-1 Introduction 577
13-2 Introduction to Optimization 577
13-3 A Two-Variable Product Mix Model 579

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xii CONTENTS

13-4 Sensitivity Analysis 590


13-4a Solver’s Sensitivity Report 590
13-4b SolverTable Add-In 593
13-4c A Comparison of Solver’s Sensitivity Report and SolverTable 599
13-5 Properties of Linear Models 600
13-6 Infeasibility and Unboundedness 602
13-7 A Larger Product Mix Model 604
13-8 A Multiperiod Production Model 612
13-9 A Comparison of Algebraic and Spreadsheet Models 619
13-10 A Decision Support System 620
13-11 Conclusion 622

14 Optimization Models 630


14-1 Introduction 631
14-2 Employee Scheduling Models 632
14-3 Blending Models 638
14-4 Logistics Models 644
14-4a Transportation Models 644
14-4b More General Logistics Models 651
14-5 Aggregate Planning Models 659
14-6 Financial Models 667
14-7 Integer Optimization Models 677
14-7a Capital Budgeting Models 678
14-7b Fixed-Cost Models 682
14-7c Set-Covering Models 689
14-8 Nonlinear Optimization Models 695
14-8a Difficult Issues in Nonlinear Optimization 695
14-8b Managerial Economics Models 696
14-8c Portfolio Optimization Models 700
14-9 Conclusion 708

15 Introduction to Simulation Modeling 717


15-1 Introduction 718
15-2 Probability Distributions for Input Variables 720
15-2a Types of Probability Distributions 721
15-2b Common Probability Distributions 724
15-2c Using @RISK to Explore Probability Distributions 728
15-3 Simulation and the Flaw of Averages 736
15-4 Simulation with Built-in Excel Tools 738

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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
CONTENTS xiii

15-5 Simulation with @RISK 747


15-5a @RISK Features 748
15-5b Loading @RISK 748
15-5c @RISK Models with a Single Random Input 749
15-5d Some Limitations of @RISK 758
15-5e @RISK Models with Several Random Inputs 758
15-6 The Effects of Input Distributions on Results 763
15-6a Effect of the Shape of the Input Distribution(s) 763
15-6b Effect of Correlated Inputs 766
15-7 Conclusion 771

16 Simulation Models 779


16-1 Introduction 780
16-2 Operations Models 780
16-2a Bidding for Contracts 780
16-2b Warranty Costs 784
16-2c Drug Production with Uncertain Yield 789
16-3 Financial Models 794
16-3a Financial Planning Models 795
16-3b Cash Balance Models 799
16-3c Investment Models 803
16-4 Marketing Models 810
16-4a Customer Loyalty Models 810
16-4b Marketing and Sales Models 817
16-5 Simulating Games of Chance 823
16-5a Simulating the Game of Craps 823
16-5b Simulating the NCAA Basketball Tournament 825
16-6 Conclusion 828

PART 6 Advanced Data Analysis 837


17 Data Mining 838
17-1 Introduction 839
17-2 Classification Methods 840
17-2a Logistic Regression 841
17-2b Neural Networks 846
17-2c Naïve Bayes 851
17-2d Classification Trees 854
17-2e Measures of Classification Accuracy 855
17-2f Classification with Rare Events 857

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xiv CONTENTS

17-3 Clustering Methods 860


17-4 Conclusion 870

18 Analysis of Variance and Experimental Design (MindTap Reader only)


18-1 Introduction 18-2
18-2 One-Way ANOVA 18-5
18-2a The Equal-Means Test 18-5
18-2b Confidence Intervals for Differences Between Means 18-7
18-2c Using a Logarithmic Transformation 18-11
18-3 Using Regression to Perform ANOVA 18-15
18-4 The Multiple Comparison Problem 18-18
18-5 Two-Way ANOVA 18-22
18-5a Confidence Intervals for Contrasts 18-28
18-5b Assumptions of Two-Way ANOVA 18-30
18-6 More About Experimental Design 18-32
18-6a Randomization 18-32
18-6b Blocking 18-35
18-6c Incomplete Designs 18-38
18-7 Conclusion 18-40

19 Statistical Process Control (MindTap Reader only)


19-1 Introduction 19-2
19-2 Deming’s 14 Points 19-3
19-3 Introduction to Control Charts 19-6
19-4 Control Charts for Variables 19-8
19-4a Control Charts and Hypothesis Testing 19-13
19-4b Other Out-of-Control Indications 19-15
19-4c Rational Subsamples 19-16
19-4d Deming’s Funnel Experiment and Tampering 19-18
19-4e Control Charts in the Service Industry 19-22
19-5 Control Charts for Attributes 19-26
19-5a P Charts 19-26
19-5b Deming’s Red Bead Experiment 19-29
19-6 Process Capability 19-33
19-6a Process Capability Indexes 19-35
19-6b More on Motorola and 6-Sigma 19-40
19-7 Conclusion 19-43

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CONTENTS xv

APPENDIX A: Quantitative Reporting (MindTap Reader only)


A-1 Introduction A-1
A-2 Suggestions for Good Quantitative Reporting A-2
A-2a Planning A-2
A-2b Developing a Report A-3
A-2c Be Clear A-4
A-2d Be Concise A-4
A-2e Be Precise A-5
A-3 Examples of Quantitative Reports A-6
A-4 Conclusion A-16

References 873

Index 875

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PREFACE
With today’s technology, companies are able to ­collect tremendous amounts of data with relative ease. Indeed, many com-
panies now have more data than they can handle. However, before the data can be useful, they must be analyzed for trends,
patterns, and relationships. This book illustrates in a practical way a variety of methods, from simple to complex, to help you
analyze data sets and uncover important information. In many business contexts, data analysis is only the first step in the
solution of a problem. Acting on the solution and the information it provides to make good decisions is a critical next step.
Therefore, there is a heavy emphasis throughout this book on analytical methods that are useful in decision making. The meth-
ods vary considerably, but the objective is always the same—to equip you with ­decision-making tools that you can apply in
your ­business careers.
We recognize that the majority of students in this type of course are not majoring in a quantitative area. They are typically
business majors in finance, marketing, operations management, or some other business discipline who will need to analyze data
and make quantitative-based decisions in their jobs. We offer a hands-on, example-based approach and introduce fundamental
concepts as they are needed. Our vehicle is spreadsheet software—specifically, Microsoft Excel®. This is a package that most
students already know and will almost surely use in their careers. Our MBA students at Indiana University have been so turned
on by the required course that is based on this book that almost all of them (mostly finance and marketing majors) have taken
at least one of our follow-up elective courses in spreadsheet modeling. We are convinced that students see value in quantitative
analysis when the course is taught in a practical and example-based approach.

Rationale for Writing This Book


Business Analytics: Data Analysis and Decision Making is different from other textbooks written for statistics and management
science. Our rationale for writing this book is based on four fundamental objectives.
• Integrated coverage and applications. The book provides a unified approach to business-related problems by integrat-
ing methods and applications that have been traditionally taught in separate courses, specifically statistics and manage-
ment science.
• Practical in approach. The book emphasizes realistic business examples and the processes managers actually use to
analyze business ­problems. The emphasis is not on abstract theory or computational methods.
• Spreadsheet-based teaching. The book ­provides students with the skills to analyze business ­problems with tools they
have access to and will use in their careers. To this end, we have adopted Excel and commercial spreadsheet add-ins.
• Latest tools. This is not a static field. The software keeps changing, and even the mathematical algorithms behind the
software continue to evolve. Each edition of this book has presented the most recent tools in Excel and the accompanying
Excel add-ins, and the current edition is no exception.

Integrated Coverage and Applications


In the past, many business schools have offered a required statistics course, a required decision-making course, and a required
management science course—or some subset of these. The current trend, however, is to have only one required course that cov-
ers the basics of statistics, some regression analysis, some decision making under uncertainty, some linear programming, some
simulation, and some advanced data analysis ­methods. Essentially, faculty in the quantitative area get one opportunity to teach
all business students, so we attempt to cover a variety of useful quantitative methods. We are not necessarily arguing that this
trend is ideal, but rather that it is a reflection of the reality at our university and, we suspect, at many others. After several years
of teaching this course, we have found it to be a great opportunity to attract students to the subject and to more advanced study.
The book is also integrative in another important aspect. It not only integrates a number of analytical methods, but it also
applies them to a wide variety of business problems—that is, it analyzes realistic examples from many business disciplines. We
include examples, problems, and cases that deal with portfolio optimization, workforce scheduling, market share analysis, capital
budgeting, new product analysis, and many others.

Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
PREFACE xvii

Practical in Approach
This book has been designed to be very example-based and practical. We strongly believe that students learn best by w ­ orking
through examples, and they appreciate the material most when the examples are realistic and interesting. Therefore, our
approach in the book differs in two important ways from many competitors. First, there is just enough conceptual development
to give students an understanding and appreciation for the issues raised in the examples. We often introduce important concepts,
such as standard deviation as a measure of variability, in the context of examples rather than discussing them in the abstract.
Our experience is that students gain greater intuition and understanding of the concepts and applications through this approach.
Second, we place virtually no emphasis on hand calculations. We believe it is more important for students to understand
why they are conducting an analysis and to interpret the results than to emphasize the tedious calculations associated with many
analytical techniques. Therefore, we illustrate how powerful software can be used to create graphical and numerical outputs
in a matter of seconds, freeing the rest of the time for in-depth interpretation of the results, sensitivity analysis, and alternative
modeling approaches.

Spreadsheet-based Teaching
We are strongly committed to teaching spreadsheet-based, example-driven courses, regardless of whether the basic area is data
analysis or management science. We have found tremendous enthusiasm for this approach, both from students and from ­faculty
around the world who have used our books. Students learn and remember more, and they appreciate the material more. In
addition, instructors typically enjoy teaching more, and they usually receive immediate reinforcement through better t­eaching
evaluations. We were among the first to move to spreadsheet-based teaching about two decades ago, and we have never regret-
ted the move.

What We Hope to Accomplish in This Book


Condensing the ideas in the previous paragraphs, we hope to:
• continue to make quantitative courses attractive to a wide audience by making these topics real, accessible, and
interesting;
• give students plenty of hands-on experience with real problems and challenge them to develop their intuition, logic, and
problem-solving skills;
• expose students to real problems in many ­business disciplines and show them how these problems can be analyzed with
quantitative methods; and
• develop spreadsheet skills, including ­experience with powerful spreadsheet add-ins, that add immediate value to stu-
dents’ other courses and for their future careers.

New in the Seventh Edition


There are several important changes in this edition.
• New introductory material on Excel: Chapter 1 now includes an introductory section on spreadsheet modeling. This
provides business examples for getting students up to speed in Excel and covers such Excel tools as IF and VLOOKUP
functions, data tables, goal seek, range names, and more.
• Reorganization of probability chapters: Chapter 4, Probability and Probability Distributions, and Chapter 5, Normal,
Binomial, Poisson, and Exponential Distributions, have been shortened slightly and combined into a single Chapter 5,
Probability and Probability Distributions. This created space for the new Chapter 4 discussed next.
• New material on “Power BI” tools and data visualization: The previous chapters on Data Mining and Importing Data
into Excel have been reorganized and rewritten to include an increased focus on the tools commonly included under
the Business Analytics umbrella. There is now a new Chapter 4, Business Intelligence Tools for Data Analysis, which
includes Excel’s Power Query tools for importing data into Excel, Excel’s Power Pivot add-in (and the DAX language) for
even more powerful data analysis with pivot tables, and Tableau Public for data visualization. The old online Chapter 18,
Importing Data into Excel, has been eliminated, and its material has been moved to this new Chapter 4.

Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
xviii PREFACE

• Updated for Office 365, Windows or Mac: The 7th Edition is completely compatible with the latest version of Excel, and
all screenshots in the book are from the latest version. However, because the changes from previous versions are not that
extensive for Business Analytics purposes, the 7th Edition also works well even if you are still using Microsoft Office
2013, 2010, or 2007. Also, recognizing that many students are now using Macs, we have attempted to make the material
compatible with Excel for Mac whenever possible.
• Updated Problems: Numerous problems have been modified to include the most updated data available. In addition,
the DADM 7e Problem Database.xlsx file provides instructors with an entire database of problems. This file indicates
the context of each of the problems and shows the correspondence between problems in this edition and problems in the
­previous edition.
• Less emphasis on add-ins (when possible): There is more emphasis in this edition on implementing spreadsheet
­calculations, especially statistical calculations, with built-in Excel tools rather than with add-ins. For example, there is
no reliance on Palisade’s StatTools add-in in the descriptive statistics chapters 2 and 3 or in the confidence interval and
hypothesis testing chapters 8 and 9. Nevertheless, Palisade’s add-ins are still relied on in chapters where they are really
needed: PrecisionTree for decision trees in Chapter 6; StatTools for regression and time series analysis in Chapters 10,
11, and 12; @RISK for simulation in Chapters 15 and 16; and StatTools and NeuralTools for logistic regression and neu-
ral networks in Chapter 17.
• New optional add-in: Although it is not an “official” part of the book, Albright wrote a DADM_Tools add-in for Excel
(Windows or Mac), with tools for creating summary stats, histograms, correlations and scatterplots, regression, time
series analysis, decision trees, and simulation. This add-in provides a “lighter” alternative to the Palisade add-ins and is
freely available at https://kelley.iu.edu/albrightbooks/free_downloads.htm.

Software
This book is based entirely on Microsoft Excel, the spreadsheet package that has become the standard analytical tool in busi-
ness. Excel is an extremely powerful package, and one of our goals is to convert casual users into power users who can take full
advantage of its features. If you learn no more than this, you will be acquiring a valuable skill for the business world. However,
Excel has some limitations. Therefore, this book relies on several Excel add-ins to enhance Excel’s capabilities. As a group,
these add-ins comprise what is arguably the most impressive assortment of spreadsheet-based software accompanying any book
on the market.

DecisionTools® Suite Add-in


The textbook website for Business Analytics: Data Analysis and Decision Making provides a link to the powerful DecisionTools®
Suite by Palisade Corporation. This suite includes seven separate add-ins:
• @RISK, an add-in for simulation
• StatTools, an add-in for statistical data analysis
• PrecisionTree, a graphical-based add-in for ­creating and analyzing decision trees
• TopRank, an add-in for performing what-if analyses
• NeuralTools®, an add-in for estimating complex, nonlinear relationships
• EvolverTM, an add-in for performing optimization (an alternative to Excel’s Solver)
• BigPicture, a smart drawing add-in, useful for depicting model relationships
We use @RISK and PrecisionTree extensively in the chapters on simulation and decision making under uncertainty, and we
use StatTools as necessary in the data analysis chapters. We also use BigPicture in the optimization and simulation chapters to
provide a “bridge” between a problem statement and an eventual spreadsheet model.
Online access to the DecisionTools Suite, available with new copies of the book and for MindTap adopters, is an
­academic version, slightly scaled down from the professional version that sells for hundreds of dollars and is used by many
leading companies. It functions for one year when properly installed, and it puts only modest limitations on the size of data
sets or models that can be analyzed.

Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
PREFACE xix

SolverTable Add-in
We also include SolverTable, a supplement to Excel’s built-in Solver for optimization.1 If you have ever had difficulty under-
standing Solver’s sensitivity reports, you will appreciate SolverTable. It works like Excel’s data tables, except that for each
input (or pair of inputs), the add-in runs Solver and reports the optimal output values. SolverTable is used extensively in the
optimization chapters.

Windows versus Mac


We have seen an increasing number of students using Macintosh laptops rather than Windows laptops. These students have two
basic options when using our book. The first option is to use the latest version of Excel for Mac. Except for a few advanced
tools such as Power Pivot (discussed in Chapter 4), the Mac version of Excel is very similar to the Windows version. However,
the Palisade and SolverTable add-ins will not work with Excel for Mac. Therefore, the second option, the preferable option, is
to use a Windows emulation program (Bootcamp and Parallels are good candidates), along with Office for Windows. Students
at Indiana have used this second option for years and have had no problems.

Software Calculations by Chapter


This section indicates how the various calculations are implemented in the book. Specifically, it indicates which calculations
are performed with built-in Excel tools and which require Excel add-ins.
Important note: The Palisade add-ins used in several chapters do not work in Excel for Mac. This is the primary reason
Albright developed his own DADM_Tools add-in, which works in Excel for Windows and Excel for Mac. This add-in is freely
available at the author’s website (https://kelley.iu.edu/albrightbooks/free_downloads.htm), together with a Word document on
how to use it. However, it is optional and is not used in the book.

Chapter 1 – Introduction to Business Analytics


• The section on basic spreadsheet modeling is implemented with built-in Excel functions.

Chapter 2 – Describing the Distribution of a Variable


• Everything is implemented with built-in Excel functions and charts.
° Summary measures are calculated with built-in functions AVERAGE, STDEV.S, etc.
° Histograms and box plots are created with the Excel chart types introduced in 2016.
° Time series graphs are created with Excel line charts.

• Palisade’s StatTools add-in can do all of this. It isn’t used in the chapter, but it is mentioned in a short appendix, and an
Intro to StatTools video is available.
• Albright’s DADM_Tools add-in can do all of this except for time series graphs.

Chapter 3 – Finding Relationships among Variables


• Everything is implemented with built-in Excel functions and charts.
Summary measures of numeric variables, broken down by categories of a categorical variable, are calculated with
°

built-in functions AVERAGE, STDEV.S, etc. (They are embedded in array formulas with IF functions.)
° Side-by-side box plots are created with the Excel box plot chart type introduced in 2016.

° Scatterplots are created with Excel scatter charts.

° Correlations are calculated with Excel’s CORREL function. A combination of the CORREL and INDIRECT func-
tions is used to create tables of correlations.
• StatTools can do all of this. It isn’t used in the chapter, but it is mentioned in a short appendix.
• DADM_Tools can do all of this.

1
SolverTable is available on this textbook’s website and on Albright’s website, www.kelley.iu.edu/albrightbooks.

Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
Random documents with unrelated
content Scribd suggests to you:
Fig. 8.—Höyer-Ellefsen’s Patent Clamp for use with Huitfeldt’s
binding.

We now come to a new class of fastening, where the heel is


connected with the ski by means of some sort of sole, generally
made of the “belting” used for driving machinery, fixed to the top of
the ski in front of the toe. There are innumerable variations of this
plan, a very simple one being to fix a piece of the belting in front of
the foot and to attach it to the heel of the boot by means of a
dummy heel and a strap leading round the instep. The toe is held in
position either by side irons and a strap, as in the Huitfeldt binding,
or by a simple broad strap passing through the ski and buckling
across the toe. In the latter form it has attained to considerable
popularity on the Continent, especially in the Black Forest. We do
not, however, think it worth while to give a picture of this fastening,
as it is not one which we can recommend for any purpose. The
dummy heel fills up with snow, and becomes uncomfortable; and as
to the belting, one is in this dilemma, that if one uses it thin it
buckles and if one uses it very thick it becomes heavy and too stiff
for comfortable walking unless it be fastened very far forward, in
which case it rises off the ski at every step and presses the toe
against the toe strap, thereby causing discomfort and cold feet.

Torgersen’s “Handry” Binding (Fig. 9) is, we think, vastly preferable,


for it has no heel to collect snow, and the belting, only reaching half-
way down the foot, is not so liable to buckle.

It cannot, however, claim to be a really firm binding, though if the


strap leading from the belting round the instep be pulled tight (and a
tight strap at this part of the foot does not seem to affect the
circulation) it is not so loose as might be supposed at first sight. But
the chief advantage of Torgersen’s binding is its extreme
adjustability. It will fit almost anybody, and can be taken on and off
in a moment. On this account it is a very good binding for clubs or
shopmen in Switzerland who let out ski to a number of different
people for short periods. Its only moderate firmness also
recommends it to nervous beginners who want to run straight and
fast, and who are afraid of the slight extra risk involved by using a
rigid fastening.

Fig. 9.—Torgersen’s Handy Binding. Driving Belt and Straps. Half the sole
is Driving Belt.

Ellefsen’s Patent Binding (Fig. 10) is of the same class. It appeared


last season (1904-5), and has scarcely been in use long enough to
allow of exhaustive criticism.

As with Torgersen’s, the belting only reaches about half-way down


the foot, where it is terminated by an iron cross-piece with upright
cheeks fitting on either side of the heel (see Fig. 10). From these
cheeks a strap leads round the back of the heel, by means of which
the belting is pulled tight. This stretching of the belting is the novelty
of the arrangement, and is very ingenious, as, of course, it prevents
all buckling. The iron toe-pieces are much the same as in Huitfeld,
but they are fixed firmly to the ski by means of the little metal
tongues which are part of them. The tongues at the same time
secure the driving belt under the toe, giving it due stiffness in a
vertical direction and preventing pressure of the toe strap. But
obviously this is the weak spot of the front part of the arrangement,
and unless the belting is of the very best quality it is liable to tear
there. The makers, however, claim that the best belting will not tear,
and time alone can decide whether this is so or not. The binding is
not readily adjustable, and when ordering it is necessary to send a
sketch of the boot which one intends to use with it.

Fig. 10.—Ellefsen’s Patent Binding.

The figure with the boot also shows a little strap sewn on to the heel of
the boot to prevent the heel straps slipping off. This is very useful with all
the above-named fastenings. See infra, pp. 47 and 48.

The Lilienfeld Binding has caused more discussion and provoked


more criticism than any other. It, too, is on the “sole” principle, but
differs from all others in this respect, that (except for the heel and
toe straps) it is made entirely of metal.

The vertical axis of the sole is, moreover, placed in front of the toe,
and not under it as in other fastenings, and vertical stiffness is
secured by means of a very ingenious spring arrangement
embedded in the ski. This shifting of the axis forward makes the
binding feel curious at first, but one gets accustomed to it after a
while, and then it becomes very comfortable and pleasant. An
objection to the plan is, however, that one is deprived of much
control over the heel of the ski, and is placed, so to speak, at the
mercy of the spring. It is, however, often convenient to raise the
heel of the ski when going up hill, and it is annoying to find when
one tries to do so that it refuses to obey on account of the spring
being insufficiently screwed up. On the other hand, if the spring be
tight the heel keeps “clappering” up and down at every step.
Another decidedly bad point about this fastening is its weight. It is
unquestionably heavy. It is necessary, therefore, to use a
considerably lighter ski with it than with any of the ordinary
arrangements, and light ski are apt to be brittle. It is, however, a
very powerful binding, very suitable for making “S” turns on steep
and difficult ground. It seldom or never breaks, and it is adjustable
to almost any boot. It is usually sold fitted to a special ski with a
hole in it cut for the spring. The so-called “Alpine skee” is shortish,
broadish, and flat-bottomed, with a sharply turned-up bluff entrance.
These qualities render it less suitable for straight running, but useful
for turning on the mountain-side, for which special purpose it is,
indeed, designed. People somewhat advanced in years will find the
“Alpine skee,” with its special fastening, of value for mountain tours,
and it is, we think, easier to learn to turn on it than on any other;
but your dashing youth and your jumper will certainly prefer the
Norwegian article. Of course, the Lilienfeld fastening can be fixed to
a Telemark ski.

Fig. 11.—The Lilienfeld Binding. “Alpine Skee.” Movable Steel


Sole.

Method of Fixing.

The right way of attaching all the above-named bindings to the boot
will have been evident from the descriptions appended to each. It is
sufficient to observe here that the straps (and particularly the toe-
straps) should never be pulled tighter than occasion demands. Tight
straps are the surest road to frost-bite, besides being very
uncomfortable. For all ordinary going—that is to say, during far the
greater length of time that the ski are on the feet—the straps may
be worn comparatively loose. It is quite easy to tighten them up for
a difficult piece of ground or a jump, and there is no occasion to run
unnecessary risks.

Another important matter is that with all ordinary bindings care


should be taken not to thrust the foot too far into the toe-strap. The
toe-strap should never cross the foot lower than the middle of the
great toe. People are apt to neglect this simple precaution, but in
doing so they run the risk of spraining the foot in the event of a fall
forwards. In the case of the Lilienfeld binding, it is not necessary to
be quite so careful, as with it the vertical axis is in front of the foot.

Conclusion.

The beginner who has read the above remarks probably realises by
now that there is no such thing as a perfect ski binding which will
satisfy everybody! Some people want extreme lateral rigidity, others
a little play, and others, again, comparative looseness. It is much the
same with the vertical movement; if very stiff there is great control,
valuable for jumping and for lifting the heel in steep hill climbing, but
the ski “clappers” on the level. If very loose, the toe has to carry too
much weight,6 and the advantages of stiffness vanish. There can
really be no such thing as a happy mean in these matters, and
everybody must choose that which on the whole is best suited to his
requirements. Nor can any form of fastening last for ever, and the
most that one can expect is that a binding should not be continually
giving way. Do not, therefore, begin by worrying yourself too much
about this part of your equipment. Buy one or other of the bindings
depicted above which you think will suit you best, and learn all about
its little peculiarities and something about ski-running before you
decide that it is no good. Above all things, avoid boring your more
experienced friends with binding talk, of which they have all had
enough and to spare.

FOOT-PLATES.

In order to protect the ski and to prevent snow adhering to it under


the foot it is necessary to fix some sort of anti-sticking material to
that part which is touched by the boot; and a thin plate of some
non-corrosive metal is best for this purpose; the india-rubber or
seal’s skin commonly sold are of little use, and soon wear out.

THE STICK.

The stick is a good servant, but a bad master. It is little used by first-
class runners, except to enable them to increase the speed by
punting. There can, however, be no doubt that it greatly assists a
beginner in preserving his balance on difficult ground and in turning.
On the other hand, it is equally certain that it is frequently the cause
of his adopting a bad style, of spoiling his balance, and of hindering
or entirely blocking his progress in the art of turning. To jump with a
stick in the hand is most dangerous, and, of course, there is always
the possibility of the stick being lost or broken on tour.

Accordingly there are those who recommend the beginner to leave


this part of his outfit at home; and much is to be said in favour of
such advice, especially in the case of a young and active pupil.
When, however, it is argued that anybody who can go on ski without
a stick will not have any difficulty in subsequently taking to one, we
venture to differ. Perhaps in rare cases it may be so, but we have
had a somewhat extensive experience of beginners of all ages, and
we have always found it otherwise. The novice who has learnt
without a stick seems to be greatly embarrassed when one is first
placed in his hand. Moreover, we have met not a few ski-runners, no
longer novices, who make very pretty Telemark and Christiania
swings on the practice ground with hands free, but who break down
hopelessly on tour when encumbered with a stick. But everybody is
agreed that a stick of some sort or other should be taken on tour,
and we fail to see the use of these pretty manœuvres if they cannot
be accomplished when really most required. This, however, is far
from being the whole case for the pole. What is your poor elderly
friend to do when he tumbles in deep snow? It frequently requires
considerable activity to get up under such circumstances, and what
is here mentioned half in jest might really be an ugly matter.
Besides, nobody over twenty-five can be expected to enjoy continual
struggling head downwards. People get exhausted, people begin to
think that it is impossible to learn, and people take to some inferior
sport which they find easier, and therefore more amusing. Did you
mutter “Let them go”? Nay; but there we touch the very root of the
matter. Is ski-running merely a pretty form of athletics for the few,
or is it a noble sport for the people, leading them forth from stuffy
houses and narrow roads to the glories of the winter landscape?
Surely the latter; and we would rather the runner sat on his pole at
every hill and visited the woods and mountains than that he was the
cleverest performer on the practice ground and went nowhere else.
“But,” it is said, “if the beginner accustoms himself to run with a
stick in his hand he will be quite helpless when he loses it or breaks
it, or when he wishes to jump.” This is, of course, to some extent
true, but the case is not so bad as all that. In reality, as above
hinted, it is a good deal easier to run without a stick than with one
after a certain stage has been reached; our experience is that the
more advanced pupil soon learns to appreciate this, and that the
transition from stick to no stick is seldom difficult. Besides, there is
no reason to carry matters to extremes and never to practise with
the arms free.
Thorwald Hansen. King’s Prizeman, Norway,
’05.

Photo by Th. Thorkelsen.

Our advice, then, is:—Begin by carrying a stick in the hand, but use
it only to overcome a difficulty. Endeavour to be as independent of it
as possible, and practise sometimes without it.
Shall the ski-runner use two sticks or one? and shall it or they be
furnished with a basket arrangement at the end (see Fig. 12)? These
are questions which have also been much discussed, and frequently
rather unprofitably. We think that it all depends on circumstances.
Two light bamboos with wicker-work discs (Norwegian Trindser) at
the end are very serviceable when one has got beyond the
beginner’s stage. They help one up hill and along the level, and
down hill they may be trailed behind in each hand, or on difficult
ground held together and used as one. The discs are, of course,
intended to prevent the point penetrating the snow to too great a
depth—not to act as brakes. But on very steep and hard mountain
sides where one may find oneself—sometimes with a precipice below
—they are far from being a source of comfort. On such occasions
one prefers to have a single stout staff, which one can thrust deeply
into the snow, and which one knows will not slip or break. And in
general we have not found two sticks to be of much service in the
high Alps, though for lower excursions in Switzerland and in the
Black Forest and everywhere in Norway we prefer them. The novice,
however, should, we think, begin with a simple staff of good ash or
other strong wood, without any disc at the end. He is sure to require
to use his stick to some extent (indeed, we shall advise him lower
down to do so), and he would probably only break light double
sticks. He should get into the habit of holding his stick in either
hand, and should begin to practise with two as soon as he thinks he
is far enough advanced to do so. In choosing his stick he will select
one about as long as from the ground to the top of his shoulder. It
should be furnished with a metal ferrule and a spike at the lower
end, and a broad leather loop at the top for the hand.
Fig. 12.—Disc for bottom of ski stick, attached by metal ears. Staub of
Zürich’s pattern.

The double bamboo sticks should also be about as long as from the
ground to the shoulder. They are best out from the root end of the
plant, where it is strongest; the root also serves as a convenient
lump for the hand to hold. The discs are best attached by a metal
arrangement, as shown in Fig. 12, and not by boring a hole in the
cane and passing a piece of leather through it, as is common in
Norway. The one method holds for a long time; the other breaks
very soon.

FOOTGEAR.

This is a very important part of a ski-runner’s outfit, and too much


attention cannot be paid to it. Nevertheless, nothing is commoner in
Switzerland than to see the early efforts of beginners enormously
handicapped by unsuitable boots. English ladies, particularly, seem
to find it difficult to make up their minds to spend the necessary
amount of money on a suitable pair, and usually appear in thin,
high-heeled shoes covered by “gouties.” But the acme of
thoughtlessness was in our experience achieved by a man who went
out in patent-leather boots and openwork silk socks! The
consequences were, of course, frost-bite, and he narrowly escaped
losing a few toes.

A strongly made, waterproof, low-heeled boot is a necessity, and


with most modern bindings the sole should be not less than half an
inch thick. It should be roomy enough to permit of at least three
pairs of extra thick socks being worn, and there should be plenty of
room for the toes to “waggle.” With bindings such as Huitfeldt’s it is
better not to have the toe cut too square, for a more or less wedge-
shaped end fits better into the toe-irons. In order to resist the
pressure of the toe-strap it is best to have the leather extra thick in
front. The boot should fit fairly tightly round the ankle and instep,
for reasonable firmness at this point does not interfere with the
circulation, and is of value in preventing sprained ankles and chafed
heels. With Ellefsen’s binding, where there are no straps across that
part of the foot, this is of special importance. Nothing is gained by
wearing a sloppy sort of boot and subsequently imprisoning the foot
in tight and narrow straps. The strain of moving the ski has to be
borne somewhere, and it is best to distribute it evenly where it is
least felt. In order to prevent the heel straps slipping down it is
strongly advisable with all the bindings mentioned above (except the
Lilienfeld) to have a small strong strap and buckle sewn to the heel
of the boots. The buckle should point upwards, and should be fixed
quite close. The end of the strap then points downwards, and is
useful as a sort of shoehorn for pulling on the binding.

For Switzerland we would advise the addition of a few nails to the


sole of the boot. They prevent any slipping about on icy places
round the house, and they make all the difference to one’s
happiness in climbing on foot over a pass, or the last few yards of
some rocky and icy summit. They are not, however, to be
recommended in Norway, where nobody wears them. Not but what
there is plenty of ice round the hotels and sanatoria there, but in
that country custom is everything, and it is better to bear with a
bump or two than to offend.

In the Black Forest ski boots are often made of dog or calf skin, with
the hair left on outside. An inner coating of hair is often added, but
this we think is a mistake, as it is difficult to dry after use. The
exterior coating of hair is, however, a great protection against cold.
It wears out in course of time, and then the thing to do is to follow
the classical example of the King of the Jews and buy another pair.

Arctic explorers and others who go to very cold places are


unanimous as to the virtues of outside hair, and various devices exist
to enable the runner to fix a covering of it over his ordinary boots.
These inventions are, however, apt to be too bulky, or to fill up with
snow, or to be cut by a nailed boot, and we cannot recommend any
we have seen. A very simple plan is, however, to nail a piece of skin
(or canvas-covered felt) to the ski in front of the foot, and to pass it
between the toe-strap and the boot. It should be wide enough and
long enough to cover the toes, but not, of course, so wide as to
project and act as a brake. This little dodge helps to keep the toes
warm, not only by the extra covering which it affords, but also by
distributing the pressure of the toe-strap over a greater surface; it
also to some extent prevents snow collecting under the toes and
forming an uncomfortable lump there.

Boots should be greased now and again, but in moderation, for


excessive greasing is said to cause cold feet. The boots should be
warmed (with hot water or otherwise) before the grease is applied.
Castor oil is excellent for this purpose.

The best kind of socks to wear are very thick ones made of goat’s
hair; but nowadays they are difficult to get. In Norway so-called
“Ragge Sokker” are no longer made of pure material, and the
modern imitation is harsh and uncomfortable. Thick woollen socks
known as “Ladder” are now largely used, and a pair of these over a
good ordinary sock are sufficient for most purposes. It is, however,
always advisable to take a dry pair in one’s rucksack, for, however
waterproof one’s boots may be, a considerable amount of moisture
always accumulates inside them. This is due to the condensation of
perspiration against the cold outer surface of the boot, and is most
dangerous in very cold weather, when the leather freezes and its
pores are choked by ice. When this occurs the toe-straps should be
loosed and the toes should be kept moving. Frost-bite is very
insidious, and is frequently quite unnoticed by the sufferer till he
reaches home and it is too late. The consequences may be very
serious, and it is impossible to be too much on one’s guard.

From the above it will be seen that there is plenty of room for
improvement in the ski-runner’s footgear. We recommend a thick
under-sock, a pair of good “Ladder,” a stout boot, fitting well about
the ankle, but with plenty of room at the toes, and a piece of skin
covering the toes and held in position by the toe strap. But, all the
same, we frequently suffer from cold feet, and we wish somebody
would invent something better.

OTHER CLOTHES.

Other clothes are of minor importance. Remember that the season


and the snow are cold, that the latter melts, that the exercise is at
times very violent, and then you are not likely to try wading trousers
or an umbrella. The best clothes for ski-runners are, perhaps,
knickerbockers and a double-breasted jacket. Choose a material of
smooth texture, for woolly stuffs catch the snow, which soon forms
into icy lumps, betraying the novice and melting unpleasantly in a
warm room. All openings at the neck, sleeves, knees, and ankles
must have an arrangement to fit closely to keep out the snow, which
is apt to find its way in, especially in the earlier stages of practice.
Let the cap, or soft felt hat, be provided with flaps, to protect the
ears in a sharp breeze. The so-called St. Moritz cap is excellently
adapted to the purpose. Thick woollen gloves, long enough to reach
high above the wrist, are indispensable, and a second pair ought to
be in the pocket as a change, for wet gloves in a cold wind are the
surest road to frost-bite. Puttees are probably the best means to
shut the top of the boot and to cover the stockings. Some sort of
wind-jacket is necessary in the Norwegian mountains and elsewhere
where strong winds prevail. A capital one is in use in Austria. It is
made of very thin oil-silk in the form of a sort of smock-frock, with a
hood at the back for the head. It weighs almost nothing, and is
warmer than any sweater. With this and a pair of trousers of the
same material one may laugh at the most biting wind that ever blew,
and the dangers of a night out become greatly minimised.

ACCESSORIES.

The Rücksack—Norwegian Rypesæk—came originally from the Tyrol,


and is by far the best means of carrying things. It should be made of
stout waterproof canvas, and should be provided with broad
shoulder-straps. We advise the novice to buy as good a one as he
can afford; he will find it useful for other things besides ski-running.

Smoked Glasses, or some such device as that recommended below,


will generally have to be worn above the tree-line to protect the eyes
from snow-blindness. The precise nature of this complaint does not
appear to be understood. It appears to be more prevalent in some
countries than in others, and is not, we think, entirely a matter of
intensity of light. It seems, for example, to be more dangerous in
the Norwegian mountains than in Switzerland. Like frost-bite, it is
insidious, and the patient frequently is not seriously inconvenienced
till after the damage is done. Some people, too, are far more
susceptible to it than others. Instead of smoked glass, which is liable
to become dimmed by the condensation upon it of moisture, we
prefer a simple oblong piece of leather, 6in. long and about 1in.
broad, with two oval-shaped holes in it opposite the eyes, say, ½in.
long by ⅜in. broad; a slit for the nose to hold it in position, and two
pieces of string to bind it round the head.
In Derbyshire, November, ’04.

Photo by C. R. Wingfield.

The Water-bottle should be of sufficient capacity; one to hold about


a litre is convenient. It should be provided with a felt covering and a
tight-fitting cork. What to put into it is a matter of choice, though
much alcohol is not to be recommended. Personally we have given
up compounding drinks of cold tea, sugar, and wine, for the reason
that they are so nice that we drink more at a time than we should.
Our companions, too, look at us with such longing eyes that it is
difficult to resist their dumb appeal. Such a water-bottle is soon
empty. Plain sugar and water is not so nice, but is very sustaining,
the sugar being very rapidly digested, and a raw egg or two adds to
the value of the compound. Dried prunes, acidulated drops, and
other sweetmeats will be found very pleasant on a ski tour, even
though one never touches them at other times. Louis Stevenson has
observed that the hungrier a man is the more he appreciates
delicacies, so do not let your luncheon consist entirely of plain beef
sandwiches. Remember, too, that it is better to eat little and often
than largely and all at once.

Some sort of Repairing Outfit and a spare ski tip should always be
taken with one. There are little light metal tips on the market made
to fit over a broken ski which are very useful. The kind that fixes
with a screw is best, as the other is apt to come off. If, however, one
has the latter, a small screw-nail through it would keep it in place.
With one of these tips, and the means of making an improvised
binding with a few screw eyes and nails, a washer or two, and some
straps, the runner should be able to get home easily enough
wherever his ski may break. The reader must use his ingenuity in
such matters, remembering always that it is impossible to execute
very elaborate repairs with cold fingers.

There are other odds and ends more or less useful on tour, a
description of which will be found in any dealer’s list.

PART III.
TECHNICAL.
PRELIMINARY ADVICE.

We would very strongly recommend the beginner to make his first


efforts on some one or other of the good snow conditions described
on pp. 21 and 22. Freshly fallen deep snow is especially to be
avoided, for not only does it afford heavy and difficult going, but a
fall in it is apt to be dangerous. This is, of course, the reverse of
what one would expect; but what happens is that the ski sink in
deeply, and in the event of a fall they are apt to stick and sprain the
ankle or knee. The firmer the snow the better it is, provided always
that it be of sufficient depth and that it be fair snow, and not ice-
crust.

All things considered, we would advise the beginner to learn to go


slowly before he learns to go fast. That is to say, as soon as he can
run straight fairly well, we would have him learn how to regulate his
speed and steer by means of what is known as “stemming” (see
infra, p. 69). In practising this movement he will at the same time
learn how to balance himself with the weight on one foot, a
necessary accomplishment; for, though in ski-running both ski are
usually kept on the ground, the weight is nearly always mainly on
one foot. It is well to pause and try to appreciate this very important
fact before reading further.

After he has learnt something of stemming, and provided that he


has followed our instructions and used his pole as little as possible
(and then only as we direct), he should not find much difficulty in
acquiring some speed in glissading. He should then begin to take
short tours of, say, an hour or two’s duration, gradually lengthening
them as his proficiency increases. He should when on tour
endeavour to apply the knowledge which he has gained on the
practice ground, and on the practice ground he should try to
overcome those difficulties which he has encountered on tour. There
is no sense in keeping on climbing up and sliding straight down the
same easy hill; yet such is the commonest form of ski-ing at
fashionable Swiss winter resorts!
As soon as the beginner can “turn on the spot,” run straight fairly
well, and “stem,” he can (we do not say he should) go where he
pleases. He will, however, remain slow and awkward, and he will
miss a great deal of the beauty of the sport if he rests content with
these easy accomplishments. We trust that he will be of a more
ambitious disposition, and that he will proceed to the mastery of the
“S” turn and of the “Telemark” and “Christiania” swings; and we
strongly recommend him to learn something of jumping, not only on
account of the amusement which he will certainly derive from it, but
because it is the very best means of gaining a good balance for
ordinary running.

It is of the greatest importance to cultivate a freedom and elasticity


of movement and position. The muscles should be as strong as iron,
but as flexible as rope. The knees should be pliant, and should act
like the springs of a carriage in relation to the rest of the body. Be
watchful, but courageous, and try hard not to fall.

LEAN FORWARD!

Lean forward is the watchword of the ski-runner, and it is just as


well to explain what is meant by it before proceeding further.

Place your ski parallel, one about a foot in front of the other, and
throw the body forward as much as possible; one ought to feel as if
about to fall on one’s nose. To the onlooker one seems to be
standing on the entire sole of the foot, but in reality all the weight
rests on the front part and the toes. Thus, stand erect on the ski,
the knees a little bent, and then lean forward without bending any
part of your body (especially not the region of the hips) and without
raising the heel; then you ought to feel what is meant. Never
assume a position as if sitting down or about to do so, because that
would press down the heel. Every violation of this great rule of
leaning forward is punished by the ski “bolting” from under one.
TO LIFT THE POINT OF THE SKI.

To lift the point of the ski seems a very simple matter, but it is at
least ten to one that the novice will do it wrong. Press the heel of
the ski down on the ground with your heel, and lift the point
upwards with your toe. Do not raise any part of your foot from the
ski.
Fig. 13.—Turning on the
Spot.

To lift the heel of the ski reverse the above. Here it will not be
possible to keep the heel of the foot on the heel of the ski, but the
binding will raise the latter from the ground to some extent.

TURNING ON THE SPOT.

Turning on the spot is a puzzle to the beginner, though simple when


shown.

Lift one ski straight to the front (see Fig. 13 (1)), putting the heel
end as far away from you as you can, then turn it outwards and
away from you smartly, swinging the point right round and leaving
the heel resting on the snow, then put it down, point by heel,
alongside of the other ski. This twisted position (Fig. 13 (2)) is the
only difficulty, but very few attempts will soon show that it is not so
bad or cramped as it seemed at first. In this position hold the knees
slightly bent. Lastly, raise the point of the other ski and swing it
round. You will find it easier to learn this movement with the
assistance of your stick, which should first be held obliquely across
the body, pointing in the opposite direction to that in which you are
turning. Then after assuming position (2) shift it across as in (3),
and lastly swing round the other ski. As soon as you are proficient
with the help of the stick practise without it—and, of course, both to
right and to left. It is not necessary to stand on the snow in order to
learn these movements. The carpet will do, but remove all Dresden
china from the immediate neighbourhood.

WALKING WITH SKI ON THE LEVEL.

Walking with ski on the level differs from ordinary walking or skating
in this, that one must not strike out, there being no fulcrum or point
of resistance. Keep the ski parallel and as close together as possible
(closer than shown in the diagram), for a narrow spoor has many
advantages, besides being “good form.” Throw the weight of the
body forward and slide on the advanced leg; the “hind” leg must be
absolutely disengaged—that is to say, do not strike out by trying to
press the snow with it. Begin with long, slow steps, lunging forward
with bent knee (Fig 14). Do not lift the ski from the ground, but slide
along regularly and conscientiously; do not hurry or flurry, but save
your breath. In one’s first steps one must specially cultivate
precision, sliding forward with ski exactly parallel, and distributing
the weight properly. Lean forward! slide!7

Fig. 14.—On the Level.

The ski should be kept closer together than shown. The closer
the better.

A single stick on the level is of but little service, but with two sticks
the pace can be considerably increased, especially on a good firm
surface. Both sticks should be thrown forward simultaneously, and
the slide on the advanced leg accelerated by a vigorous push with
both arms. When proceeding in this way it is well to observe some
kind of rhythm; and, as the snow is seldom slippery enough to admit
of a push at each step, one should run, for example, one, two, three
steps (swinging the sticks forward), and then push with the arms,
sliding on, say, the right leg; then run one, two, three steps and
push, sliding on the left leg, and so on.

UP-HILL.

To the laity it is a matter for wonder how it is possible to climb any


considerable hill at all on ski. We remember well the look of polite
incredulity which passed across the face of a mountaineering friend
some years ago when we told him that a certain well-known pass in
the Alps had been traversed in winter. He had tried ski himself, but
had made very little of them, and the pass in question is a stiff one
to negotiate even in summer. But now long climbs on ski in winter
have become so common that it is unnecessary to pursue the
subject further than to quote the classical observation of Olaus
Magnus, “There exists no mountain, however high, which by means
of cunning by-ways he (the ski-runner) cannot surmount.”
A Stiff Climb.

Photo by E. C. Richardson.

It is, however, well to observe here that some of the accounts of the
ease with which one can climb hills on ski have been exaggerated.
In rare conditions of perfect snow one may perhaps ascend as
quickly as in summer, but, roughly speaking, it may be said that ski
are about twenty-five per cent. slower up-hill than boots. We are
here, of course, speaking of climbing a steep mountain where it is
necessary to zig-zag (see infra), and not of walking straight up a
moderate slope. Moreover, whether we slide the ski upwards in
winter or whether we carry a corresponding weight on our backs in
summer, the fact remains that some 10lb. or so have to be raised so
many feet, and we are handicapped to that extent. Where ski really
have the advantage is after the summit has been reached—of which
more anon.

Up to a certain degree of steepness (varying with the quality of the


snow) there is little or no difference between the methods used for
climbing and for walking on the level. Snow is not an absolutely
slippery substance, and the ski always adhere to it to some extent.
There comes, however, very soon a point beyond which we can no
longer slide as on the level, and shortly after-wards another, where
the force of gravity overcomes the “stickiness” of the snow and we
begin to slip back. These points are very different with the expert
and the beginner, and the former will slide easily straight up a slope
upon which the latter will slip hopelessly.

In ascending a steep incline the art lies (1) in knowing (and only
experience can teach one) just how steeply one can go without a
slip; (2) in the correct placing of the ski in the snow; and (3) in the
correct balancing of the body upon the ski when so placed. The
correct placing of the ski is not a difficult matter. The secret lies in
raising the point of the ski (p. 53) an inch or two from the ground
and bringing it straight down with a firm stamp. The stamp is at first
nearly always made too gently by ladies and too hard by men.
Imagine you are cracking a walnut—that will be about right.
Remember that where the foot is brought down there it must stop.
If it slips even the least tiny bit you must stamp again.
Fig. 15.—Climbing a slope.—s = the fall of the slope; t = turn here. The
shaded parts are obstructions (rocks, thick growth, &c.).

Next bring the weight forward as evenly as possible on to the ski you
have stamped, and advance the other leg. In doing so take the
greatest care to balance the weight of the body straight over the
stamped ski; lean neither backwards nor forwards, or you are certain
to slip.

In hill-climbing it is, of course, expedient to go as steeply as


possible, but the beginner will find that it pays best to take things
easily at first, as a single slip backwards is more exhausting than
twenty steps forwards.

To negotiate a steep slope one must go across and upward at a


convenient angle, making a zig-zag track, as an engineer would plan
a good mountain road (Fig 15). Turn at the corners as described, p.
55, and when so doing remember to assume a safe standing
position, for a slip on a steep slope may be attended by unpleasant
consequences. The correct position in which to stand before turning
is clearly with the ski horizontally in space—that is to say, at right
angles to the direction of the gradient; then one cannot slip while
engrossed in the task.

Fig. 16.—“Herring-boning.”—The figure is in the act of lifting the right ski


over the heel of the left. The light lines are his tracks.

Note.—Swing the body well, as shown.


It is important when proceeding in this way to remember, when lifting the
upper ski, to raise its heel from the snow (see p. 55) and place it well up-hill
in a horizontal position. Most beginners move only the front part of the ski,
and place it in the snow with the heel pointing down hill. Even if the upper
ski does not slip in this wrong position (as usually happens), the lower ski,
when it comes to be lifted, is sure to be placed across the heel of the upper
ski, imprisoning it and preventing the next step being taken. You are certain
to make this mistake very frequently at first, and it will land you in all sorts
of difficulties and entanglements, but do not forget that we warned you
against it.

A single stick is not of any very positive assistance up-hill, though it has a
negative value on very steep ground both in aiding the balance and in giving
a feeling of security against slipping. In traversing a slope it should be held
across the body with the point touching the snow on the upper side. The
beginner will also find it useful to assist him in rising to his feet after a fall.
He should, however, entirely abandon all idea of pulling himself up-hill with
his stick; to do so is quite impossible. Balance is what is required, plus a little
thigh muscle, which will come with practice.

Two sticks are, however, of considerable help, especially on moderate slopes


up which it is possible to go straight. They should be placed in the snow
alternately, after the manner which nature dictates. In traversing steep
ground they cease to be of service, for the lower one is not long enough to
reach the slope below one’s feet, and the upper one cannot be used
effectively on the bank at one’s side. Under such circumstances it is better,
and safer, to hold them together and to use them as one, as described
above.

In general for long climbs it is best to go comparatively slowly and to “keep


at it.” The speed of a party should be that of the slowest man. If you happen
to be that unfortunate individual, don’t lag behind if you can help it, but
don’t hesitate to shout to the others if they are going too fast for you. If,
however, they are novices and persist in rushing, slow down and go your
own pace. It is not at all improbable that if you go steadily you may be the
first at the top, after all; but even if you arrive twenty minutes later than the
others you are in no wise dishonoured.

Strictly between ourselves, we rather like to be last man, and to allow our
more energetic friends to go on ahead. The last man has far the easiest
place on a newly made track, and we do not thirst for the glory of breaking
the snow.

But, of course, a properly organised party should keep together, and its
members should take it in turns to go ahead. It is in itself a pleasure to
move steadily upwards in this way, the ski and the sticks keeping time, and it
makes the way seem shorter and easier for everybody.

One concluding word of advice may here be given. Eat your lunch some little
distance below your intended highest point. The tops of mountains and
passes are apt to be draughty, and, besides, it is much better to begin the
run down when the muscles are warm and supple than to wait till after they
have turned cold and stiff from sitting about.

GLIDING DOWN.

Gliding down is the characteristic part of ski-running, as distinct from the use
of pattens, Canadian snow-shoes, &c. It is the reward reaped after the
labours of the climb. The ascent is, indeed, a struggle against gravity, but
the descent is the highest advantage that any physical exercise can safely
derive from terrestrial attraction.

Let us imagine ourselves on the top of some long Norwegian mountain ready
for the plunge. There is a clear course between the steep rocks near the top,
and an open run across the glacier below to the terminal moraine a mile off.
We can see every yard of the way, and all is fair going, yet we feel just the
merest tinge of nervousness, for the incline is steep, and looks steeper than
it is. But there is really no danger, so it is over the edge and off! In an
instant all fears are left behind, for now balance and quickness of eye are to
be put to the test, and the wind is whistling and the snow dust spurting. We
whiz past the rocks and over a few inequalities, negotiated here by a spring
and a flight of a few yards through the air and there by a compensating
yielding of the knees. Now we rush out on to the smooth surface of the
glacier, where there is no jar and no vibration. Our feet seem to have
vanished, and we lean, as it were, in space, with the ice-wind pressed
against us. There is no more need for balancing, and no thought of falling,
so even is the motion and so trustworthy the snow. Smoothly our wooden
wings bear us onwards, and the furlongs lie behind! But the end approaches,
the slope becomes less steep, the pace slackens, and presently we glide
gently up the opposite slope of the moraine and turn to watch our
companions.

Such is the best picture we can give you of a good straight glissade on ski;
but there is not the slightest reason, friend novice, why you yourself should
not enjoy the reality ere long. You must, however, learn to walk before you
can run, and we would have you make your first attempts on some quite
easy slope, removed if possible from the public gaze. A few obstacles, such
as trees, scattered about do not matter, as you are not in the least likely to
run into them, and they serve to accustom the eye to their presence. If
possible, let there be a gradual outrun at the bottom of the hill. Practise
there awhile, and as soon as you can run down without a fall move on
somewhere else to a place where the ground is steeper and more uneven.

To start on steep ground is a little difficult at first. Stand horizontally to the


direction of the slope. Then as quickly as possible lift round first the lower
and then the upper ski. Lean forward and off! If you are quick and lean
forward, the ski will not bolt from under you; if you are slow and hang back,
they will.
Fig. 18.—Gliding on ski.—1. Correct position; 2 and 3. Dangerous and
incorrect.

The correct position for descending a hill is that shown in Fig. 18 (1) above.
Keep the ski parallel and as close together as you can (touching if possible),
advance one foot about twelve inches, and let the main weight of the body
rest on the ball of the “hind” foot; feel your way, so to speak, with the front
foot. Lean forward. Bend the knees slightly, and be as free and as elastic
about them as possible. Practise with either foot leading. Avoid any affected
and ridiculous pose. Do not, for example, if you are running without a stick,
hold the arms straight out from the body as though you were walking a
tight-rope. To do so may slightly assist the balance, but you cannot run like
this with a stick in your hand, and it is far better not to get into bad habits.
No. 3 in the diagram (p. 63) is a very common attitude, but it is as bad as
bad can be. The wide spoor is a cause of instability, the extreme bending of
the knee is a source of weakness, and there is a very fair chance of the
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