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Copyright 2020 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
CONTENTS
Preface xvi
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CONTENTS vii
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viii CONTENTS
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CONTENTS ix
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x CONTENTS
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CONTENTS xi
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xii CONTENTS
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CONTENTS xiii
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xiv CONTENTS
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CONTENTS xv
References 873
Index 875
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PREFACE
With today’s technology, companies are able to collect tremendous amounts of data with relative ease. Indeed, many com-
panies now have more data than they can handle. However, before the data can be useful, they must be analyzed for trends,
patterns, and relationships. This book illustrates in a practical way a variety of methods, from simple to complex, to help you
analyze data sets and uncover important information. In many business contexts, data analysis is only the first step in the
solution of a problem. Acting on the solution and the information it provides to make good decisions is a critical next step.
Therefore, there is a heavy emphasis throughout this book on analytical methods that are useful in decision making. The meth-
ods vary considerably, but the objective is always the same—to equip you with decision-making tools that you can apply in
your business careers.
We recognize that the majority of students in this type of course are not majoring in a quantitative area. They are typically
business majors in finance, marketing, operations management, or some other business discipline who will need to analyze data
and make quantitative-based decisions in their jobs. We offer a hands-on, example-based approach and introduce fundamental
concepts as they are needed. Our vehicle is spreadsheet software—specifically, Microsoft Excel®. This is a package that most
students already know and will almost surely use in their careers. Our MBA students at Indiana University have been so turned
on by the required course that is based on this book that almost all of them (mostly finance and marketing majors) have taken
at least one of our follow-up elective courses in spreadsheet modeling. We are convinced that students see value in quantitative
analysis when the course is taught in a practical and example-based approach.
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PREFACE xvii
Practical in Approach
This book has been designed to be very example-based and practical. We strongly believe that students learn best by w orking
through examples, and they appreciate the material most when the examples are realistic and interesting. Therefore, our
approach in the book differs in two important ways from many competitors. First, there is just enough conceptual development
to give students an understanding and appreciation for the issues raised in the examples. We often introduce important concepts,
such as standard deviation as a measure of variability, in the context of examples rather than discussing them in the abstract.
Our experience is that students gain greater intuition and understanding of the concepts and applications through this approach.
Second, we place virtually no emphasis on hand calculations. We believe it is more important for students to understand
why they are conducting an analysis and to interpret the results than to emphasize the tedious calculations associated with many
analytical techniques. Therefore, we illustrate how powerful software can be used to create graphical and numerical outputs
in a matter of seconds, freeing the rest of the time for in-depth interpretation of the results, sensitivity analysis, and alternative
modeling approaches.
Spreadsheet-based Teaching
We are strongly committed to teaching spreadsheet-based, example-driven courses, regardless of whether the basic area is data
analysis or management science. We have found tremendous enthusiasm for this approach, both from students and from faculty
around the world who have used our books. Students learn and remember more, and they appreciate the material more. In
addition, instructors typically enjoy teaching more, and they usually receive immediate reinforcement through better teaching
evaluations. We were among the first to move to spreadsheet-based teaching about two decades ago, and we have never regret-
ted the move.
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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
xviii PREFACE
• Updated for Office 365, Windows or Mac: The 7th Edition is completely compatible with the latest version of Excel, and
all screenshots in the book are from the latest version. However, because the changes from previous versions are not that
extensive for Business Analytics purposes, the 7th Edition also works well even if you are still using Microsoft Office
2013, 2010, or 2007. Also, recognizing that many students are now using Macs, we have attempted to make the material
compatible with Excel for Mac whenever possible.
• Updated Problems: Numerous problems have been modified to include the most updated data available. In addition,
the DADM 7e Problem Database.xlsx file provides instructors with an entire database of problems. This file indicates
the context of each of the problems and shows the correspondence between problems in this edition and problems in the
previous edition.
• Less emphasis on add-ins (when possible): There is more emphasis in this edition on implementing spreadsheet
calculations, especially statistical calculations, with built-in Excel tools rather than with add-ins. For example, there is
no reliance on Palisade’s StatTools add-in in the descriptive statistics chapters 2 and 3 or in the confidence interval and
hypothesis testing chapters 8 and 9. Nevertheless, Palisade’s add-ins are still relied on in chapters where they are really
needed: PrecisionTree for decision trees in Chapter 6; StatTools for regression and time series analysis in Chapters 10,
11, and 12; @RISK for simulation in Chapters 15 and 16; and StatTools and NeuralTools for logistic regression and neu-
ral networks in Chapter 17.
• New optional add-in: Although it is not an “official” part of the book, Albright wrote a DADM_Tools add-in for Excel
(Windows or Mac), with tools for creating summary stats, histograms, correlations and scatterplots, regression, time
series analysis, decision trees, and simulation. This add-in provides a “lighter” alternative to the Palisade add-ins and is
freely available at https://kelley.iu.edu/albrightbooks/free_downloads.htm.
Software
This book is based entirely on Microsoft Excel, the spreadsheet package that has become the standard analytical tool in busi-
ness. Excel is an extremely powerful package, and one of our goals is to convert casual users into power users who can take full
advantage of its features. If you learn no more than this, you will be acquiring a valuable skill for the business world. However,
Excel has some limitations. Therefore, this book relies on several Excel add-ins to enhance Excel’s capabilities. As a group,
these add-ins comprise what is arguably the most impressive assortment of spreadsheet-based software accompanying any book
on the market.
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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
PREFACE xix
SolverTable Add-in
We also include SolverTable, a supplement to Excel’s built-in Solver for optimization.1 If you have ever had difficulty under-
standing Solver’s sensitivity reports, you will appreciate SolverTable. It works like Excel’s data tables, except that for each
input (or pair of inputs), the add-in runs Solver and reports the optimal output values. SolverTable is used extensively in the
optimization chapters.
• Palisade’s StatTools add-in can do all of this. It isn’t used in the chapter, but it is mentioned in a short appendix, and an
Intro to StatTools video is available.
• Albright’s DADM_Tools add-in can do all of this except for time series graphs.
built-in functions AVERAGE, STDEV.S, etc. (They are embedded in array formulas with IF functions.)
° Side-by-side box plots are created with the Excel box plot chart type introduced in 2016.
° Correlations are calculated with Excel’s CORREL function. A combination of the CORREL and INDIRECT func-
tions is used to create tables of correlations.
• StatTools can do all of this. It isn’t used in the chapter, but it is mentioned in a short appendix.
• DADM_Tools can do all of this.
1
SolverTable is available on this textbook’s website and on Albright’s website, www.kelley.iu.edu/albrightbooks.
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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
Random documents with unrelated
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Fig. 8.—Höyer-Ellefsen’s Patent Clamp for use with Huitfeldt’s
binding.
Fig. 9.—Torgersen’s Handy Binding. Driving Belt and Straps. Half the sole
is Driving Belt.
The figure with the boot also shows a little strap sewn on to the heel of
the boot to prevent the heel straps slipping off. This is very useful with all
the above-named fastenings. See infra, pp. 47 and 48.
The vertical axis of the sole is, moreover, placed in front of the toe,
and not under it as in other fastenings, and vertical stiffness is
secured by means of a very ingenious spring arrangement
embedded in the ski. This shifting of the axis forward makes the
binding feel curious at first, but one gets accustomed to it after a
while, and then it becomes very comfortable and pleasant. An
objection to the plan is, however, that one is deprived of much
control over the heel of the ski, and is placed, so to speak, at the
mercy of the spring. It is, however, often convenient to raise the
heel of the ski when going up hill, and it is annoying to find when
one tries to do so that it refuses to obey on account of the spring
being insufficiently screwed up. On the other hand, if the spring be
tight the heel keeps “clappering” up and down at every step.
Another decidedly bad point about this fastening is its weight. It is
unquestionably heavy. It is necessary, therefore, to use a
considerably lighter ski with it than with any of the ordinary
arrangements, and light ski are apt to be brittle. It is, however, a
very powerful binding, very suitable for making “S” turns on steep
and difficult ground. It seldom or never breaks, and it is adjustable
to almost any boot. It is usually sold fitted to a special ski with a
hole in it cut for the spring. The so-called “Alpine skee” is shortish,
broadish, and flat-bottomed, with a sharply turned-up bluff entrance.
These qualities render it less suitable for straight running, but useful
for turning on the mountain-side, for which special purpose it is,
indeed, designed. People somewhat advanced in years will find the
“Alpine skee,” with its special fastening, of value for mountain tours,
and it is, we think, easier to learn to turn on it than on any other;
but your dashing youth and your jumper will certainly prefer the
Norwegian article. Of course, the Lilienfeld fastening can be fixed to
a Telemark ski.
Method of Fixing.
The right way of attaching all the above-named bindings to the boot
will have been evident from the descriptions appended to each. It is
sufficient to observe here that the straps (and particularly the toe-
straps) should never be pulled tighter than occasion demands. Tight
straps are the surest road to frost-bite, besides being very
uncomfortable. For all ordinary going—that is to say, during far the
greater length of time that the ski are on the feet—the straps may
be worn comparatively loose. It is quite easy to tighten them up for
a difficult piece of ground or a jump, and there is no occasion to run
unnecessary risks.
Conclusion.
The beginner who has read the above remarks probably realises by
now that there is no such thing as a perfect ski binding which will
satisfy everybody! Some people want extreme lateral rigidity, others
a little play, and others, again, comparative looseness. It is much the
same with the vertical movement; if very stiff there is great control,
valuable for jumping and for lifting the heel in steep hill climbing, but
the ski “clappers” on the level. If very loose, the toe has to carry too
much weight,6 and the advantages of stiffness vanish. There can
really be no such thing as a happy mean in these matters, and
everybody must choose that which on the whole is best suited to his
requirements. Nor can any form of fastening last for ever, and the
most that one can expect is that a binding should not be continually
giving way. Do not, therefore, begin by worrying yourself too much
about this part of your equipment. Buy one or other of the bindings
depicted above which you think will suit you best, and learn all about
its little peculiarities and something about ski-running before you
decide that it is no good. Above all things, avoid boring your more
experienced friends with binding talk, of which they have all had
enough and to spare.
FOOT-PLATES.
THE STICK.
The stick is a good servant, but a bad master. It is little used by first-
class runners, except to enable them to increase the speed by
punting. There can, however, be no doubt that it greatly assists a
beginner in preserving his balance on difficult ground and in turning.
On the other hand, it is equally certain that it is frequently the cause
of his adopting a bad style, of spoiling his balance, and of hindering
or entirely blocking his progress in the art of turning. To jump with a
stick in the hand is most dangerous, and, of course, there is always
the possibility of the stick being lost or broken on tour.
Our advice, then, is:—Begin by carrying a stick in the hand, but use
it only to overcome a difficulty. Endeavour to be as independent of it
as possible, and practise sometimes without it.
Shall the ski-runner use two sticks or one? and shall it or they be
furnished with a basket arrangement at the end (see Fig. 12)? These
are questions which have also been much discussed, and frequently
rather unprofitably. We think that it all depends on circumstances.
Two light bamboos with wicker-work discs (Norwegian Trindser) at
the end are very serviceable when one has got beyond the
beginner’s stage. They help one up hill and along the level, and
down hill they may be trailed behind in each hand, or on difficult
ground held together and used as one. The discs are, of course,
intended to prevent the point penetrating the snow to too great a
depth—not to act as brakes. But on very steep and hard mountain
sides where one may find oneself—sometimes with a precipice below
—they are far from being a source of comfort. On such occasions
one prefers to have a single stout staff, which one can thrust deeply
into the snow, and which one knows will not slip or break. And in
general we have not found two sticks to be of much service in the
high Alps, though for lower excursions in Switzerland and in the
Black Forest and everywhere in Norway we prefer them. The novice,
however, should, we think, begin with a simple staff of good ash or
other strong wood, without any disc at the end. He is sure to require
to use his stick to some extent (indeed, we shall advise him lower
down to do so), and he would probably only break light double
sticks. He should get into the habit of holding his stick in either
hand, and should begin to practise with two as soon as he thinks he
is far enough advanced to do so. In choosing his stick he will select
one about as long as from the ground to the top of his shoulder. It
should be furnished with a metal ferrule and a spike at the lower
end, and a broad leather loop at the top for the hand.
Fig. 12.—Disc for bottom of ski stick, attached by metal ears. Staub of
Zürich’s pattern.
The double bamboo sticks should also be about as long as from the
ground to the shoulder. They are best out from the root end of the
plant, where it is strongest; the root also serves as a convenient
lump for the hand to hold. The discs are best attached by a metal
arrangement, as shown in Fig. 12, and not by boring a hole in the
cane and passing a piece of leather through it, as is common in
Norway. The one method holds for a long time; the other breaks
very soon.
FOOTGEAR.
In the Black Forest ski boots are often made of dog or calf skin, with
the hair left on outside. An inner coating of hair is often added, but
this we think is a mistake, as it is difficult to dry after use. The
exterior coating of hair is, however, a great protection against cold.
It wears out in course of time, and then the thing to do is to follow
the classical example of the King of the Jews and buy another pair.
The best kind of socks to wear are very thick ones made of goat’s
hair; but nowadays they are difficult to get. In Norway so-called
“Ragge Sokker” are no longer made of pure material, and the
modern imitation is harsh and uncomfortable. Thick woollen socks
known as “Ladder” are now largely used, and a pair of these over a
good ordinary sock are sufficient for most purposes. It is, however,
always advisable to take a dry pair in one’s rucksack, for, however
waterproof one’s boots may be, a considerable amount of moisture
always accumulates inside them. This is due to the condensation of
perspiration against the cold outer surface of the boot, and is most
dangerous in very cold weather, when the leather freezes and its
pores are choked by ice. When this occurs the toe-straps should be
loosed and the toes should be kept moving. Frost-bite is very
insidious, and is frequently quite unnoticed by the sufferer till he
reaches home and it is too late. The consequences may be very
serious, and it is impossible to be too much on one’s guard.
From the above it will be seen that there is plenty of room for
improvement in the ski-runner’s footgear. We recommend a thick
under-sock, a pair of good “Ladder,” a stout boot, fitting well about
the ankle, but with plenty of room at the toes, and a piece of skin
covering the toes and held in position by the toe strap. But, all the
same, we frequently suffer from cold feet, and we wish somebody
would invent something better.
OTHER CLOTHES.
ACCESSORIES.
Photo by C. R. Wingfield.
Some sort of Repairing Outfit and a spare ski tip should always be
taken with one. There are little light metal tips on the market made
to fit over a broken ski which are very useful. The kind that fixes
with a screw is best, as the other is apt to come off. If, however, one
has the latter, a small screw-nail through it would keep it in place.
With one of these tips, and the means of making an improvised
binding with a few screw eyes and nails, a washer or two, and some
straps, the runner should be able to get home easily enough
wherever his ski may break. The reader must use his ingenuity in
such matters, remembering always that it is impossible to execute
very elaborate repairs with cold fingers.
There are other odds and ends more or less useful on tour, a
description of which will be found in any dealer’s list.
PART III.
TECHNICAL.
PRELIMINARY ADVICE.
LEAN FORWARD!
Place your ski parallel, one about a foot in front of the other, and
throw the body forward as much as possible; one ought to feel as if
about to fall on one’s nose. To the onlooker one seems to be
standing on the entire sole of the foot, but in reality all the weight
rests on the front part and the toes. Thus, stand erect on the ski,
the knees a little bent, and then lean forward without bending any
part of your body (especially not the region of the hips) and without
raising the heel; then you ought to feel what is meant. Never
assume a position as if sitting down or about to do so, because that
would press down the heel. Every violation of this great rule of
leaning forward is punished by the ski “bolting” from under one.
TO LIFT THE POINT OF THE SKI.
To lift the point of the ski seems a very simple matter, but it is at
least ten to one that the novice will do it wrong. Press the heel of
the ski down on the ground with your heel, and lift the point
upwards with your toe. Do not raise any part of your foot from the
ski.
Fig. 13.—Turning on the
Spot.
To lift the heel of the ski reverse the above. Here it will not be
possible to keep the heel of the foot on the heel of the ski, but the
binding will raise the latter from the ground to some extent.
Lift one ski straight to the front (see Fig. 13 (1)), putting the heel
end as far away from you as you can, then turn it outwards and
away from you smartly, swinging the point right round and leaving
the heel resting on the snow, then put it down, point by heel,
alongside of the other ski. This twisted position (Fig. 13 (2)) is the
only difficulty, but very few attempts will soon show that it is not so
bad or cramped as it seemed at first. In this position hold the knees
slightly bent. Lastly, raise the point of the other ski and swing it
round. You will find it easier to learn this movement with the
assistance of your stick, which should first be held obliquely across
the body, pointing in the opposite direction to that in which you are
turning. Then after assuming position (2) shift it across as in (3),
and lastly swing round the other ski. As soon as you are proficient
with the help of the stick practise without it—and, of course, both to
right and to left. It is not necessary to stand on the snow in order to
learn these movements. The carpet will do, but remove all Dresden
china from the immediate neighbourhood.
Walking with ski on the level differs from ordinary walking or skating
in this, that one must not strike out, there being no fulcrum or point
of resistance. Keep the ski parallel and as close together as possible
(closer than shown in the diagram), for a narrow spoor has many
advantages, besides being “good form.” Throw the weight of the
body forward and slide on the advanced leg; the “hind” leg must be
absolutely disengaged—that is to say, do not strike out by trying to
press the snow with it. Begin with long, slow steps, lunging forward
with bent knee (Fig 14). Do not lift the ski from the ground, but slide
along regularly and conscientiously; do not hurry or flurry, but save
your breath. In one’s first steps one must specially cultivate
precision, sliding forward with ski exactly parallel, and distributing
the weight properly. Lean forward! slide!7
The ski should be kept closer together than shown. The closer
the better.
A single stick on the level is of but little service, but with two sticks
the pace can be considerably increased, especially on a good firm
surface. Both sticks should be thrown forward simultaneously, and
the slide on the advanced leg accelerated by a vigorous push with
both arms. When proceeding in this way it is well to observe some
kind of rhythm; and, as the snow is seldom slippery enough to admit
of a push at each step, one should run, for example, one, two, three
steps (swinging the sticks forward), and then push with the arms,
sliding on, say, the right leg; then run one, two, three steps and
push, sliding on the left leg, and so on.
UP-HILL.
Photo by E. C. Richardson.
It is, however, well to observe here that some of the accounts of the
ease with which one can climb hills on ski have been exaggerated.
In rare conditions of perfect snow one may perhaps ascend as
quickly as in summer, but, roughly speaking, it may be said that ski
are about twenty-five per cent. slower up-hill than boots. We are
here, of course, speaking of climbing a steep mountain where it is
necessary to zig-zag (see infra), and not of walking straight up a
moderate slope. Moreover, whether we slide the ski upwards in
winter or whether we carry a corresponding weight on our backs in
summer, the fact remains that some 10lb. or so have to be raised so
many feet, and we are handicapped to that extent. Where ski really
have the advantage is after the summit has been reached—of which
more anon.
In ascending a steep incline the art lies (1) in knowing (and only
experience can teach one) just how steeply one can go without a
slip; (2) in the correct placing of the ski in the snow; and (3) in the
correct balancing of the body upon the ski when so placed. The
correct placing of the ski is not a difficult matter. The secret lies in
raising the point of the ski (p. 53) an inch or two from the ground
and bringing it straight down with a firm stamp. The stamp is at first
nearly always made too gently by ladies and too hard by men.
Imagine you are cracking a walnut—that will be about right.
Remember that where the foot is brought down there it must stop.
If it slips even the least tiny bit you must stamp again.
Fig. 15.—Climbing a slope.—s = the fall of the slope; t = turn here. The
shaded parts are obstructions (rocks, thick growth, &c.).
Next bring the weight forward as evenly as possible on to the ski you
have stamped, and advance the other leg. In doing so take the
greatest care to balance the weight of the body straight over the
stamped ski; lean neither backwards nor forwards, or you are certain
to slip.
A single stick is not of any very positive assistance up-hill, though it has a
negative value on very steep ground both in aiding the balance and in giving
a feeling of security against slipping. In traversing a slope it should be held
across the body with the point touching the snow on the upper side. The
beginner will also find it useful to assist him in rising to his feet after a fall.
He should, however, entirely abandon all idea of pulling himself up-hill with
his stick; to do so is quite impossible. Balance is what is required, plus a little
thigh muscle, which will come with practice.
Strictly between ourselves, we rather like to be last man, and to allow our
more energetic friends to go on ahead. The last man has far the easiest
place on a newly made track, and we do not thirst for the glory of breaking
the snow.
But, of course, a properly organised party should keep together, and its
members should take it in turns to go ahead. It is in itself a pleasure to
move steadily upwards in this way, the ski and the sticks keeping time, and it
makes the way seem shorter and easier for everybody.
One concluding word of advice may here be given. Eat your lunch some little
distance below your intended highest point. The tops of mountains and
passes are apt to be draughty, and, besides, it is much better to begin the
run down when the muscles are warm and supple than to wait till after they
have turned cold and stiff from sitting about.
GLIDING DOWN.
Gliding down is the characteristic part of ski-running, as distinct from the use
of pattens, Canadian snow-shoes, &c. It is the reward reaped after the
labours of the climb. The ascent is, indeed, a struggle against gravity, but
the descent is the highest advantage that any physical exercise can safely
derive from terrestrial attraction.
Let us imagine ourselves on the top of some long Norwegian mountain ready
for the plunge. There is a clear course between the steep rocks near the top,
and an open run across the glacier below to the terminal moraine a mile off.
We can see every yard of the way, and all is fair going, yet we feel just the
merest tinge of nervousness, for the incline is steep, and looks steeper than
it is. But there is really no danger, so it is over the edge and off! In an
instant all fears are left behind, for now balance and quickness of eye are to
be put to the test, and the wind is whistling and the snow dust spurting. We
whiz past the rocks and over a few inequalities, negotiated here by a spring
and a flight of a few yards through the air and there by a compensating
yielding of the knees. Now we rush out on to the smooth surface of the
glacier, where there is no jar and no vibration. Our feet seem to have
vanished, and we lean, as it were, in space, with the ice-wind pressed
against us. There is no more need for balancing, and no thought of falling,
so even is the motion and so trustworthy the snow. Smoothly our wooden
wings bear us onwards, and the furlongs lie behind! But the end approaches,
the slope becomes less steep, the pace slackens, and presently we glide
gently up the opposite slope of the moraine and turn to watch our
companions.
Such is the best picture we can give you of a good straight glissade on ski;
but there is not the slightest reason, friend novice, why you yourself should
not enjoy the reality ere long. You must, however, learn to walk before you
can run, and we would have you make your first attempts on some quite
easy slope, removed if possible from the public gaze. A few obstacles, such
as trees, scattered about do not matter, as you are not in the least likely to
run into them, and they serve to accustom the eye to their presence. If
possible, let there be a gradual outrun at the bottom of the hill. Practise
there awhile, and as soon as you can run down without a fall move on
somewhere else to a place where the ground is steeper and more uneven.
The correct position for descending a hill is that shown in Fig. 18 (1) above.
Keep the ski parallel and as close together as you can (touching if possible),
advance one foot about twelve inches, and let the main weight of the body
rest on the ball of the “hind” foot; feel your way, so to speak, with the front
foot. Lean forward. Bend the knees slightly, and be as free and as elastic
about them as possible. Practise with either foot leading. Avoid any affected
and ridiculous pose. Do not, for example, if you are running without a stick,
hold the arms straight out from the body as though you were walking a
tight-rope. To do so may slightly assist the balance, but you cannot run like
this with a stick in your hand, and it is far better not to get into bad habits.
No. 3 in the diagram (p. 63) is a very common attitude, but it is as bad as
bad can be. The wide spoor is a cause of instability, the extreme bending of
the knee is a source of weakness, and there is a very fair chance of the
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