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Applied Maths-Unit6

The document provides an overview of Time Series Data, defining it as a set of observations recorded at equal time intervals and outlining its four components: Secular, Cyclic, Seasonal, and Irregular. It also describes two models for analyzing Time Series Data (Additive and Multiplicative) and two methods for analysis (Moving Average and Least Square Method). Additionally, it includes practice questions related to the concepts discussed.

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26 views3 pages

Applied Maths-Unit6

The document provides an overview of Time Series Data, defining it as a set of observations recorded at equal time intervals and outlining its four components: Secular, Cyclic, Seasonal, and Irregular. It also describes two models for analyzing Time Series Data (Additive and Multiplicative) and two methods for analysis (Moving Average and Least Square Method). Additionally, it includes practice questions related to the concepts discussed.

Uploaded by

pakhisikar
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Unit VI: Time Series Data (6 Marks)

1. A Time Series is a set of observations recorded at an equal interval of time such as daily,
weekly, monthly, quarterly, half-yearly, yearly, or any other measure of time.
2. Some examples of Time Series Data are Statistics of weekly wholesale price of rice,
industrial production in India on a monthly basis and birth-rate figures annually etc.
3. There are 4 components of Time Series Data:
(i) Secular (Long Term Trend): Changes due to long term Government Policies (at least 5
or more years)
 Upward or Downward Trend over long time.
 Decrease in Birth-Rate due to Health and Education Awareness by Government.
 Decrease in Death-Rate due to Advancement Of Medical Science and
Technology.
(ii) Cyclic: Changes due to Business Cycles (more than a year)
 Fluctuations in data due to alternating periods of expansion and contraction in an
economy.
(iii) Seasonal: Changes due to Seasons (within a year)
 The increase in sale of ice-cream or cold drinks in summer and decrease in sales
in winter.
 The increase in sale in festival season (Diwali, X-mas etc.)
(iv) Irregular (or Random): Unpredictable and uncontrollable (can happen at any time)
 The supply of finished goods was delayed for a month due to landslide in hilly
terrain.
 A factory production is delayed for three weeks due to breakdown of a machine
and unavailability of spare parts.
4. There are 2 models of Time Series Data:
(i) Additive Model (O = T + S + C + I) → For independent factors not affecting
each other
(ii) Multiplicative Model (O = T × S × C × I) → For dependent factors affecting each
other
 In practice the multiplicative model is more popular.
5. There are 2 methods for analysis of Time Series Data:
(i) Moving Average Method (Graphical)
(ii) Least Square Method (Mathematical)
 In forecasting the Least Square Method is more accurate and hence widely used.
 The name of the method to find best fit trend line is Least Square Method.
 The best fitted trend line is one for which sum of squares of errors ( ∑ e2 ) is
minimum.
 The straight line trend is represented by the equation y=a+bx
6. One Long Answer Type Question (100% Sure)
(i) 3 Year or 4 Year Moving Average Trend Values (May be with Graph)
(ii) Best Fit Trend Line using Least Square Method (May be with Trend Values & Future
Estimate)
Note: Be careful in calculation
☻☻☻
Practice Questions
1. A set of observations recorded at an equal interval of time is called
(a) Qualitative data (b) Spatial data (c) Ordinal data (d) Time
series data
2. How many components of Time series data have?
(a) 0 (b) 1 (c) 3 (d) 6
3. The component of a time series attached to long term variations is termed as ____
variations.
(a) Seasonal (b) Irregular (c) Secular trend (d) Cyclic
4. The supply of finished goods was delayed for a month due to landslide in hilly terrain.
Under which trend oscillation does this situation fall under?
(a) Seasonal (b) Cyclic (c) Secular (d)
Irregular
5. A factory production is delayed for three weeks due to breakdown of a machine and
unavailability of spare parts. Under which trend oscillation does this situation fall
under?
(a) Seasonal (b) Cyclic (c) Secular (d)
Irregular

6. For predicting the straight-line trend in the sales of scooters (in thousands) on the

method. If the sales of scooters for respective years are 𝑎, 𝑏, 𝑐, 𝑑, 𝑒 and 𝑓


basis of 6 consecutive years data, the company makes use of 4-year moving averages

respectively, then which of the following average will not be computed?


a+b+ c+ d b+c +d + e a+c +d + e
(a) (b) (c) (d)
4 4 4
c+ d +e+ f
4
7. For the given values 15, 23, 28, 36, 41, 46; the 3-yearly moving averages are:
(a) 24, 29, 35, 41 (b) 22, 28, 35, 41 (c) 22, 29, 35, 41 (d) 24,
28, 35, 41
8. For the given values 23, 32, 40, 47, 58, 33, 42; the 5-yearly moving averages are:
(a) 38, 40, 42 (b) 40, 42, 44 (c) 40, 42, 46 (d) 42,
44, 46
9. The best fitted trend line is one for which sum of squares of residuals or errors is
(a) positive (b) negative (c) minimum (d) maximum
10.The straight line trend is represented by the equation:
(a) y=a+bx (b) y=a−bx (c) y=na+b ∑ x (d) y=na−b ∑ x
11.If for a data, n=6 , ∑ y=84 , ∑ xy=108 , ∑ x =70 and ∑ x =0, then the equation of the
2

straight line trend is :


(a) y=14 +1.54 x (b) y=1.54 +14 x (c) y=14 +3.08 x (d) y=3.08+ 14 x
12.Find the trend values by taking three yearly moving averages for the following data:
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Rainfall (in 1.2 1.9 2 1.4 2.1 1.3 1.8 1.1 1.3
mm)

13.Find the trend values by taking five yearly moving averages for the following data:
Year 201 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2
Production (T) 16 14 20 18 22 17 19 21 20
14.The quarterly profits of a small-scale industry (₹ in thousands) are as follows:

Year Quarter-1 Quarter-2 Quarter-3 Quarter-4


2020 39 47 20 56
2021 68 59 66 72
2022 88 60 60 67

Calculate 4-quarterly moving averages.


15.Fit a straight-line trend by using the method of least squares for the following data:
Year 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 197 197 197
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2
Production 2 4 3 4 4 2 4 9 7 10 8
(T)
(a) Determine the equation of the straight-line trend and tabulate the trend values.
(b) Estimate the production for the year 1975.
16.Mrs. Rani runs a bread factory and her sales of bakery items for period of 2015-2019 is
as follows:
Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Sales (in ₹ 35 42 46 41 48
thousands)
(a) Use method of least-squares to find the best-fit trend line equation for Mrs. Rani’s
business.
(b) What are the estimated sales for Mrs. Shamita’s business for year 2022?
(c) In which year Mrs. Rani will be able to reach yearly sale of ₹ 67400?
17.Fit a straight line trend by method of least squares to the following data and find the
trend values:
Year 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2019
Sales (in lakh ₹) 65 68 70 72 75 67 73
All the Best

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