Simulation & System Modelling

HANNAN MIA
[email protected]

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 Learning outcomes and Reading
• The learning outcomes of this lecture are the following
– Introduce the importance of simulation & System
modelling and its advantages.
– Present the basics of simulation & System
modelling
– Present the basic elements of simulation models.
• Reading
– Mia AH (2020) Simulation and System Modelling,
1st Edition, Istehad Inc, Canada. Chapter 1
– Pidd M (2004) “Computer Simulation in
Management Science” 5th edition, John Wiley and
sons, Chichester. Chapters 1, 2.
– Robinson S (2004) “Simulation: The practice of
model development and use” John Wiley and sons, 2
Chichester. Chapter 1
 What is Simulation?
• “Simulate” means “create a likeliness”.
• Therefore, “Simulation” means the
creation of some kind of “models” which
replicate, to some extent, the functioning
of real world systems.
• These systems may be biological,
physical, natural, human, or
organisational.

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 Example
• Assume that you are managing an airport
terminal. From your observations, you noticed
that many passengers get late to airplanes
causing delays to flights.
You would like to know the following
▪ What are the sources of passengers’ delay?
▪ How many check in desks should be open during the
different periods of the day?
▪ Where should these desks located?
▪ Where should the security checks carried out?
▪ How many security check points you would need?

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 Example (Continued)
• Why do you need to know these answer?
• How?
• The only way to answer these questions and assess the
possible changes to passengers’ delays in to build a
simulation model of the terminal.
So final answer is Only through Simulation!!!!

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 Develop a real life example
• At least 5 questions
• Within 5 minutes
• In a group of 5

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 Simulation Defined

• Therefore, the definition of simulation is

“Experimentation with a simplified imitation on a
computer of a system as it progresses over time, for
the purpose of better understanding and/or improving
the systems’ performance”

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 Advantages of Simulation (1)
• Cost: Direct experimentation in the real world is
generally very expensive. An airport manager will not
build a new floor in a terminal to see how this will impact
passengers’ delay.
• Time: Direct experimentation is time consuming. It takes
years to build a new motorway to assess whether it
reduces road congestion or not.
• Replication: Events are not controllable in the real
world. Some events happen only once or it takes a long
period of time for an event to occur again. To evaluate
the impact of a Tsunami wave on the fish population, you
have to wait a long period of time to have the opportunity
to do it (and hope it will not cause damage)
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 Advantages of Simulation (2)

• Safety: Many experiments in the real world are

dangerous or even illegal. So it is safer to use a
simulation model. If an air traffic control manager would
like to assess the implications of reducing vertical
separation between aircrafts, you would not try this in the
real world as the consequences may be disastrous.
• Legality: In many situations, organisations would like to
investigate the impact of actions which are not allowed
by the law. For example, an airline company would like
to assess the impact of introducing night flights on its
performance. The police may investigate the impact of
increased criminal activities on the effectiveness of the
police force employees. 9
 Disadvantages/Limitations of
Simulation (1)
• Cost
• Time
• Lack of expertise
• Businessman’s negative attitude towards research
•

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Simulation and Mathematical Modelling
• Many systems are represented by mathematical
models, used to determine optimal or good
decisions to improve the system.
• However, mathematical models have some
serious limitations
– They cannot deal effectively with time related dynamic
systems
– They are over simplified and includes generally
unrealistic assumptions
– They are too complex to be solved analytically,
• Therefore, simulation is a better, or sometimes
the only, methodology to solve such problems.
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 Differences Between Simulation and
Mathematical Modelling
Mathematical Simulation Modelling
Modelling
1 Static Dynamic
2 Over simplified Incorporate complexity
3 Includes generally Uses realistic
unrealistic assumptions
assumptions
4 Few variables Unlimited variables
5 Need to develop over No need to develop over
periods periods

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 General Considerations for Simulation Modelling (1)

1. Simulation Requires knowledge about

• The nature of the system being
simulated.
– The nature of the system is important because
it affects the selection of the simulation
modelling technique to be used.
• The objectives of the study and the
expected results.
-The objective of the study is important
because it indicates the level of details to be
included in the simulation model.
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 General Considerations------(2)
2. Elements of Simulation Modelling
The analyst has to make decisions ahead about the
following
– Time handling
o Time handling indicates how the state of the
system is updated during the simulation time
frame.
– Stochastic or deterministic durations
o Stochastic or deterministic durations indicate whether
the events durations in the simulation are known
(deterministic) or random (stochastic)

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 Time Handling

• In simulation, the change in the system state is

modelled through time.
• A great advantages of simulation is that the
speed of time elapse can be controlled by the
modeller.
• For example, the functioning of a factory over a
one year period can be simulated in few minutes
or less.
• Therefore, it is important to know how the time
flow is to be handled in the simulation model.
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 Time Slicing
• Time slicing is the simplest way to represent
time in simulation.
• Under this approach, the flow of time is moved
forward in equal time intervals, for example
every one hour, one day, two weeks, five years.
• In the case of time slice of one day, for example,
the changes in the system state between day T
and day (T+1) is updated at day (T+1).
• The main advantage of this approach is its
simplicity.
• The period to observe and record the changes in
the system state is the same over the simulation
time frame. 16
 Next Event Technique
• In many situations, the system remains idle for
some period of times when no event occurs, In this
situation, there is no need to update the system
state.
• In this situation, it is preferable that the system is
updated when it is known that a change is the
system is about to occur. These changes are
known as events.
• Therefore, this approach is known as next event
technique.
• under this method, the time intervals for system
update are different and are no longer
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pre-determined
 What is System?
A system is a whole thing combined of some interacting and interdependent
parts called sub-system.
In other words, a system is a collection of subsystems. It is a unified whole
complex thing formed by interdepended, interacting, interrelated but simple
parts used for a specific purpose.

It is considered as an orderly grouping of interdependent and interacting

components linked together to achieve a specific objective. System concept is
studied to implement its basic implications. First, systems are designed to
achieve a predetermined objective. Second, to know and accelerate the
Interrelationships and interdependence that exist among the components.
Third, to link the system objectives to the achievement of organizational
objectives. In other words, the subordinated objective of the system is linked
supported to the achievement of superordinate objective of the of the
organization. Fourth, to pinpoint the areas of improvement of the performance
of the subsystems, system and supra system.

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 Implications of the concept of System
First, systems are designed to achieve a
predetermined objective.
Second, knowing and accelerating the
Interrelationships and interdependence that exist
among the components of the systems.
Third, to link the system objectives (subordinated
objective) to the achievement of organizational
objectives (superordinate objectives).
Fourth, to pinpoint the areas of improvement of
the performance of the subsystems, system and
supra system.
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 Types of Systems (1)
• Based on interaction with external
environment
– An open system
– Closed system,
• Based on dynamics of the system
-Deterministic System
-Stochastic
• Based on timeframe
-Terminating
-Non-terminating
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 Types of Systems (2)
• Based on the number of interaction among
the component of the system
– Simple system
– Complex System
• Based on information collection
dissemination and level of decision making
– Transaction processing system (TPS)
– Management information system (MIS)
– Decision support system (DSS)
– Business intelligence systems (BIS)
– Executive support system (ESS).
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 Deterministic Systems
• A system is deterministic if its behaviour is completely
known and determined.
• The future behaviour of such systems can be predicted
accurately as there are no variations in the system’s
elements.
• For example, if the number of passengers arriving at a
train station platform per unit time is fixed and the trains
inter-arrival times do not change, it is possible to
determine exactly the number of passengers in the
platform at any time (provided that we know the train
capacity).
• In this case, the results of the simulation of the system’s
behaviour have no variability.
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 Stochastic Systems
• A system is stochastic if its behaviour cannot be
completely predicted.
• However, in most cases, it is possible to have some
information regarding the times at which the stochastic
events may occur.
• This information is captured, generally, through probability
distributions.
• For example, if the treatment duration for tuberculosis is
Normal with a mean of 60 days and a standard deviation
of 6 days, we would expect that most patients will be
treated between 42 and 78 days.
• The decision regarding deterministic or stochastic systems
depend on the system characteristics and the level of
knowledge we have about the system.
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 Simulation of Deterministic and
Stochastic Systems
• The simulation of any system is done by updating the
information about the elements of the system over time.
• These elements are represented by variables.
• The functioning of the system is captured through
equations linking the variables of the system.
• If the system is discrete, its variables are completely
determined. The simulation of this system is done
trough allocating the values to the variables and updating
them through the equations.
• If the system is stochastic, some of its variables are
random and have to be defined by their probability
distributions. The simulation of this system is done
through generating a sample of the random variables in
the system and use the sample values to update the
information in the system through the equations. 24
 Terminating and Non Terminating
Systems
• In a simulation, it is important to determine the
time frame in which the system is operating.
• This allows us to decide about the length of the
simulation period necessary to have
representative results.
• In general, there are two types of systems:
– Terminating systems; In these systems some natural
events starts, ends, or starts and ends the system’s
operations.
– Non terminating systems: In these systems, such
starting or ending events do not exist. The system
operates continuously over time.
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 Terminating and Non Terminating
Systems
• In a simulation, it is important to determine the
time frame in which the system is operating.
• This allows us to decide about the length of the
simulation period necessary to have
representative results.
• In general, there are two types of systems:
– Terminating systems; In these systems some natural
events starts, ends, or starts and ends the system’s
operations.
– Non terminating systems: In these systems, such
starting or ending events do not exist. The system
operates continuously over time.
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 Examples
• A flight from London to Frankfurt is a terminating
system. The system’s operations start by the
aircraft leaving the gate at London and end by
the aircraft arriving at its determined gate at
Frankfurt airport.
• The air traffic control at an airport is a non
terminating system. Activities in this system do
not start and end by an event as they are carried
out continuously over time. A simulation of this
system over a period of time is only a partial
representation of a continuous stream of
activities.
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