Probability 2024
Probability 2024
Example:
Example:
For rolling a dice:
the chances of getting score 1,2,3,4,5 or 6 are all
the same.
VENN DIAGRAM
Experiment: Toss 2 Coins. Note Faces.
TT
S
EVENT EXAMPLES
Experiment: Toss 2 Coins. Note Faces.
P(A)
0.5 Occur or
Prob(A) not occur
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
EXAMPLE
Solution:
sample space: S = { 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11}
Even number, A = {2,4,6,8,10)
n( A) 5
P(even) =
n( S ) 11
EXAMPLE
EXAMPLE
EXAMPLE
EXAMPLE
Compound events:
Composition of two or more other events.
Can be formed in two different ways.
UNIONS & INTERSECTIONS
1. Union
Outcomes in either events A or B or both
‘OR’ statement
Denoted by symbol (i.e., A B)
2. Intersection
Outcomes in both events A and B
‘AND’ statement
Denoted by symbol (i.e., A B)
EVENT RELATIONS
The beauty of using events, rather than simple
events, is that we can combine events to make
other events using logical operations: and, or and
not.
The union of two events, A and B, is the event
that either A or B or both occur when the
experiment is performed. We write
A B
S
A B
EVENT RELATIONS
The intersection of two events, A
and B, is the event that both A and B
occur when the experiment is
performed. We write A B.
S
A B
A
EVENT UNION AND INTERSECT:
VENN DIAGRAM
P( A B) P( A) P( B) P( A B)
A B
EXAMPLE: ADDITIVE RULE
Example: Suppose that there were 120
students in the classroom, and that
they could be classified as follows:
A: brown hair Brown Not Brown
P(A) = 50/120 Male 20 40
B: female Female 30 30
P(B) = 60/120
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB)
= 50/120 + 60/120 - 30/120
= 80/120 = 2/3 Check: P(AB)
= (20 + 30 +30)/120
EXAMPLE: TWO DICE
A B
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
EXAMPLE
Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind & Suit.
Sample
Outcomes
in Event
Space: Heart:
2, 2, 2, 3, 4
2, ..., A , ..., A
S
Event Spade: Events and are Mutually
2, 3, 4, ..., A Exclusive
A SPECIAL CASE
When two events A and B are
mutually exclusive, P(AB) = 0
and P(AB) = P(A) + P(B).
Brown Not Brown
A: male with brown hair Male 20 40
P(A) = 20/120
B: female with brown hair Female 30 30
P(B) = 30/120
A and B are mutually P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)
= 20/120 + 30/120
exclusive, so that
= 50/120
EXAMPLE: TWO DICE
A: dice add to 3
B: dice add to 6
a ) P A B ) P A) P B ) P A B )
1 5 1 13
3 9 6 18
b ) P A B ) P A B )
13 5
1
18 18
PRACTICE 1.5
1. On festival day, the probability of a person having a
car accident is 0.08. The probability of a person
driving while used handphone is 0.22 and
probability of a person having a car accident while
used handphone is 0.14. What is the probability of a
person driving while used handphone or having a
car accident?
Ans: 0.16
2. P(V ) 0.7
P( H ) 0.81
P(V H ) 0.56
P( H V ) P( H ) P(V ) P H V )
0.81 0.7 0.56 0.95
What are Tree Diagrams
• A way of showing the possibilities of two or
more events
• Simple diagram we use to calculate the
probabilities of two or more events
H
0.5
probability
outcome
0.5
T
For example – a fair coin is spun twice
1st 2nd
H HH
H
T HT Possible
Outcomes
H TH
T
T TT
How to calculate the overall probabilities?
1st 2nd
H HH 0.5 0.5 0.25
0.5
H
0.5 0.5
T HT 0.5 0.5 0.25
0.5
T TT 0.5 0.5 0.25
1st 2nd 4 4 4
R RR 0.16
4/10 10 10 25
R 4 6 6
4/10 6/10 0.24
G RG 10 10 25
4 6 6
6/10
4/10 R GR 0.24
G 10 10 25
6/10 4 4 4
G GG 0.16
10 10 25
Denote complement of A by A
C
AC
A
S
RULE OF COMPLEMENTS
The sum of the probabilities of complementary events
equals 1:
AC
A
S
EXAMPLE
Select a student at random
from the classroom. Define:
A: male Brown Not Brown
P(A) = 60/120 Male 20 40
B: female Female 30 30
P(B) = ?
P( A B) P( A) P( B)
P( A | B) P( A)
P( B) P( B)
P( B A) P( B) P( A)
P( B | A) P( B)
P( A) P( A)
MULTIPLICATIVE RULE EXAMPLE
Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind & Color.
Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52
Solution:
i. P( A B) P( A) P( B) P( A B)
0.5 0.4 0.2
0.7 P( A B) 0.2
ii. P( A | B) 0.5
P( B) 0.4
P( A ' B ') P( A B) ' P( A | B ) P ( A)
1 P( A B)
1 0.7 0.3 therefore A and B are independent
EXAMPLE
A jar contains 3 red, 5 green, 2 blue and 6 yellow
marbles. A marble is chosen at random from the
jar. After replacing it, a second marble is chosen.
What is the probability of choosing a green and a
yellow marble?
P(green) = 5
16
P(yellow) = 6
16
P(green and
yellow) = P(green) · P(yellow) = 5 · 6
16 16
= 30/256
= 15/128
EXAMPLE
EXAMPLE
PRACTICE 1.6
1. 18% of all students stayed in KFT College play football
and basketball and 32% of all students can only play
football. What is the probability that a student plays
basketball given that the student plays football?
2. In a certain class, 80% of the students passed
mathematics, 66% passed Physics and 52% passed both
mathematics and Physics. A student is selected at
random
a) If the student passed Physics, what is the probability that the
student passed Mathematics?
b) If the student passed Mathematics, what is the probability that
the student passed Physics?
c) What is the probability the student passed Mathematics or
Physics?
d) What is the probability that the student passed neither
Mathematics nor Physics?
THE MULTIPLICATIVE RULE
FOR INTERSECTIONS
For any two events, A and B, the probability that both A
and B occur is
i. Three girls
ii. Three boys
iii. 2 girls & 1 boy
PRACTICE 1.7
1. Bag A contains 20 chocolates, of which 5 are
M&M and 15 are Beryls’s. Bag B contains 12
chocolates, of which 8 are M&M and 4 are
Beryl’s. A chocolate is drawn at random from
each bag.
a) Draw probability tree diagram to show all the
outcomes of the experiments
b) Find the probability that:
i) both are M&M
ii) both are Beryl’s
iii) one M&M and one Beryl’s
iv) at least one M&M
PRACTICE 1.7
2. Ahmad spins 2 spinner; one of which is labeled
A, B and C and the other is labeled X,Y and Z.
d) No red sweets