Travel Demand Modeling Lect. No.

Trip Generation

1- Definitions
A trip can be defined as the individual movement by motorized
means of transport in one direction. Each trip possess two ends, the
first is located in the start of trip (origin) and the second in the trip end
(destination). Trips are usually divided into home-based and non
home-based.

Trip generation is the first stage of the classical four-step modeling

procedure. The trip generation process aims at estimating the total
number of trips generated from and attracted to each traffic analysis
zone of the study area for each trip purpose.

In trip generation phase of travel demand forecasting, the planner is

concerned specifically with the number of trip ends. A trip end is
defined as beginning or ending (origin or destination) of a trip; thus
each trip has two trip ends.

Figure (1) Type of Trips

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Travel Demand Modeling Lect. No.3

Journey is an out way movement from a point of origin to a point of

destination, whereas the word "trip" denotes an outward and return journey.

A generation: is the home end of any trip that has one end at the home, and it is
the origin of a trip with neither end home based.

Trip production is defined as all the trips of home based or as the origin of the
non home based trips for home –based trips, trip production can be a trip origin,
a trip destination or a generation.

Trip attraction is defined as the non-home end of a home-based trip or the

destination of a non-home-based trip.

2- Factors Affecting Trip Generation

The main factors affecting personal trip production include:
1- Income.
2- Vehicle ownership.
3- Household size and structure.
4- Type of dwelling unit.
5- Land use.
6- Distance of the zone from city center (CBD).
7- Accessibility to public transport system.
8- Employment opportunities.
3- Trip Purpose
Trips are made for different purposes and a classification of trips by
purpose is necessary. Home-based trips are further classified based on
their purpose into work, shopping, school, person business, social and

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Travel Demand Modeling Lect. No.3

recreational. The return to home will also consider home-based trips

or simply, home-based trips can be one of the following:
1. From home to work.
2. From home to education.
3. From home to shop.
4. From home to social/recreational.
5. From home to other.
6. From work to home.
7. From education to home.
8. From shop to home.
9. From social/recreational to home.
10. From other to home.

Examples of non-home-based trips are trips between work and shop

and business trips between two places of employment.
Also, trips classified according to their origins and destinations within
the external cordon line of the study area into:
 External / External trips; origins and ends outside the external
cordon line of study area.
 External / Internal trips; origins outside the external cordon and
ends inside the external cordon line of the study area.
 Internal / External trips; origins inside the external cordon line
and ends outside the external cordon line of the study area.
 Internal / Internal trips; origins and ends inside the external
cordon line of the study area.

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4- Techniques of Trip Generation Modeling

There are several general alternative structures for specifying trip
generation models and urban spatial interaction is usually analyzed
using the aggregate or disaggregate models approaches:
4-1 Aggregate Approach
Aggregate models are based on groupings of people and they are
useful in predicting trip volumes. "Aggregate models are usually
based upon home interview origin and destination data (data at a
given geographic zonal level, such as neighborhood or city, are used)
that has been aggregated into zones; then the average zonal
productions and attractions are derived".

4-1-1 Growth Factor

Growth factor models try to forecast the number of trips generated or
attracted by a household or zone as a linear function of explanatory
factors. The models have the following basic equation:
( )
Where;
Ti, is the number of future trips in the zone,
ti, is the number of current trips in that zone, and
fi, is a growth factor.
The growth factor fi depends on the explanatory variable such as
population (P) of the zone, average household income (I), average
vehicle ownership (V). The simplest form of fi is represented as
follows:

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Travel Demand Modeling Lect. No.3

( )

Where the subscript "d" denotes the design year and the subscript "c"
denotes the current year. The limitation of growth factor method is
that the trip rate will remain same in the future. Therefore growth
factor models are normally used in the prediction of external trips
where no other methods are available. But for internal trips,
regression methods are more suitable.
4-2 Disaggregate Approach
Disaggregate models are used in predicting the travel behavior of
individual commuters in urban transport system. Disaggregate models
are usually analyzed using such analytical techniques as category or
cross-classification analysis and the multiple linear regression model.
There are several approaches to model trip generation. The general
trends of the constructed and corrected models are as follows:
1- Cross classification models.
2- Rates Based on Activity Units
3-Regression based models such as: Multiple Linear Regression
(MLR).
4-2-1 Cross-Classification
Cross-classification is a technique developed by the Federal Highway
Administration (FHWA) to determine the number of trips that begin
or end at the home. Homebased trip generation is a useful value
because it can represent a significant proportion of all trips. The first
step is to develop a relationship between socioeconomic measures and

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Travel Demand Modeling Lect. No.3

trip production. The two variables most commonly used are average
income and auto ownership.
4-2-2 Rates based on activity units
Trips generated at the household end are referred to as productions,
and they are attracted to zones for purposes such as work, shopping,
visiting friends, and medical trips. Thus an activity unit can be
described by measures such as square feet of floor space or number of
employees. Trip generation rates for attraction zones can be
determined by survey data or from previous studies.
4-2-3 Regression analysis
It's well -known statistical technique for fitting mathematical
relationships between dependent and independent variables. In the
case of trip generation equation, the dependent variable is the number
of trips and the independent variables are the various variable factors
that influence trip generation. These independent variables are land
use and socioeconomic characteristics which discussed earlier.

Example 1: Computing Trips Generated in a Suburban Zone.

Consider a zone that is located in a suburban area of a city. The
population and income data for the zone are as follows.
Number of dwelling units: 60
Average income per dwelling unit: $44,000.
Determine the number of trips per day generated in this zone for each
trip purpose, assuming that the characteristics depicted in the Figures
1 through 4 apply in this situation. The problem is solved in four basic
steps.
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Figure 1: Average Zonal Income versus Households in Income

Category
Solution:
Step 1. Determine the percentage of households in each economic
category. These results can be obtained by analysis of census data for
the area. A typical plot of average zonal income versus income
distribution is shown in Figure 1. For an average zonal income of
$44,000, the following distribution is observed.
Income ($) Households (%)
Low (under 32,000) 9
Medium (32,000 – 48,000) 40
High (over 48,000) 51

Step 2. Determine the distribution of auto ownership per household

for each income category. A typical curve showing percent of

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Travel Demand Modeling Lect. No.3

households, at each income level, that own 0, 1, or 2+ autos is shown

in Figure 2,and the results are listed in Table 1.

Figure 2: Households by Automobile Ownership and Income

Category
Table 1 shows that 58% of medium-income families own one auto
per household. Also, from the previous step, we know that a zone,
with an average income of $44,000, contains 40% of households in
the medium-income category. Thus, we can calculate that of the 60
households in that zone, there will be 60 * 0.40 8 0.58 = 14 medium-
income households that own one auto.
Table 1: Percentage of Households in Each Income Category versus
Auto Ownership
Autos / Household (%)
Income
0 1 2+
Low 54 42 4
Medium 4 58 38
High 2 30 68

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Travel Demand Modeling Lect. No.3

Step 3. Determine the number of trips per household per day for each
income–auto ownership category. A typical curve showing the
relationship between trips per household, household income, and auto
ownership is shown in Figure 3. The results are listed in Table 2. The
table shows that a medium-income household owning one auto will
generate eight trips per day.

Figure 3: Trips per Household per Day by Auto Ownership and

Income Category
Table 2: Number of Trips per Household per Day
Autos / Household
Income
0 1 2+
Low 1 6 7
Medium 2 8 13
High 3 11 15
Step 4. Calculate the total number of trips per day generated in the
zone. This is done by computing the number of households in each
income–auto ownership category, multiplying this result by the

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Travel Demand Modeling Lect. No.3

number of trips per household, as determined in Step 3, and summing

the result. Thus,

Where:
HH = number of households in the zone
Ig = percentage of households (decimal) in zone with income level g
(low, medium, or high)
Agh = percentage of households (decimal) in income level g with h
autos per household (h = 0, 1, or 2+)
Pgh = number of trips per day generated in the zone by householders
with income level g and auto ownership h
(PH)gh = number of trips per day produced in a household at income
level g and auto ownership h
PT = total number of trips generated in the zone

Number of Trips per Day Generated by Sixty Households

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Travel Demand Modeling Lect. No.3

For a zone with 60 households and an average income of $44,000, the

number of trips generated is 666 auto trips/day.
Step 5. Determine the percentage of trips by trip purpose. As a final
step, we can calculate the number of trips that are HBW, HBO, and
NHB. If these percentages are 17, 51, and 32, respectively (Figure 4),
for the medium-income category, then the number of trips from the
zone for the three trip purposes are 232 * 0.17 = 40 HBW, 232 * 0.51
= 118 HBO, and 232 * 0.32 = 74 NHB. (Similar calculations would
be made for other income groups.) The final result, which is left for
the reader to verify, is obtained by using the following percentages:
low income at 15, 55, and 30, and high income at 18, 48, and 34.
These yield 118 HBW, 327 HBO, and 221 NHB trips.

Figure 4: Trips by Purpose and Income Category

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Example 2:
Twenty households in a city were sampled for household income,
autos per household, and trips produced.

Household Trips Income ($) Auto car

1 2 4000 0
2 4 6000 0
3 10 17000 2
4 5 11000 0
5 5 4500 1
6 15 17000 3
7 7 9500 1
8 4 9000 0
9 6 7000 1
10 13 19000 3
11 8 18000 1
12 9 21000 1
13 9 7000 2
14 11 11000 2
15 10 11000 2
16 11 13000 2
17 12 15000 2
18 8 11000 1
19 8 13000 1
20 9 15000 1
Develop matrices connecting income to automobiles available, and
also draw a graph connecting trips per household to income. How
many trips will a household with an income of 10000$ owning one
auto make per day.

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Solution:
Number of HH or percent in each income category versus car
ownership:
Car ownership
Income 0 1 2+ Total
(*1000$) No
No. % No. % No. % %
.
≤6 2 (1,2)** 75 1 (5) 25 - - 3 100
6-9 1 (8) 33.5 1 (9) 33.5 1 (13) 33.5 3 100
1 2 2
9-12 20 40 40 5 100
(4) (7,18) (14,15)
2 2
12-15 - - 50 50 4 100
(19,20) (16,17)
2 3
15 - - 40 60 5 100
(11,12) (3,6,10)
( )** No. of HH

No. of trips (average trip per household) versus income and car
ownership:
Income
0 1 2+
(*1000$)
≤6 3 5 -
6-9 4 6 9
9-12 5 7.5 10.5
12-15 - 8.5 11.5
15 - 8.5 12.7

The data from the second matrix can be plotted on a graph as shown
below:

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Travel Demand Modeling Lect. No.3

14
0
1
12
2+
10
Trips/ Household

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Household income ($ 1000)

A household with 10000$ income and one auto per household will
make 8 trips per day.

Example 3: A neighborhood has a retail employment of 205 and 700

households that can be categorized into four types, each type having
identical characteristics as follows:
Number of
Household Annual non workers Workers
Type
Size Income in the peak Departing
hour
1 2 40000$ 1 1
2 3 50000$ 2 1
3 3 55000$ 1 2
4 4 40000$ 3 1

There are 100 type 1, 200 type 2, 350 type 3 and 50 type 4 household.
Assuming that shopping, social /recreational and work vehicle-based
trips all peaks at the same time (for exposition purposes), determine

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Travel Demand Modeling Lect. No.3

the total number of peak hour trips) work, shopping,

social/recreational) using the following generation models:
No. of peak-hour vehicle-based shopping trips per household =
0.12+0.09(HH. size)+0.011(annual HH. income in thousands $)-
0.15(employment in the HH. in hundreds).
No. of peak-hour vehicle-based social/recreational trips per
household = 0.04+0.018(HH. size)+0.009(annual HH. income in
thousands $)+0.16(no. of non working HH. members).
Solution:
 For vehicle-based shopping trips:
Type 1: 0.12+ 0.09(2)+0.011(40)-0.15(205)=0.4325 trips/HH.*100
HH.= 43.25 trips
Type 2: 0.12+ 0.09(3)+0.011(50)-0.15(205)=0.6325 trips/HH.*200
HH.= 126.5 trips
Type 3: 0.12+ 0.09(3)+0.011(55)-0.15(205)=0.6875 trips/HH.*350
HH.= 240.625 trips
Type 4: 0.12+ 0.09(4)+0.011(40)-0.15(205)=0.6125 trips/HH.*50
HH.= 30.625 trips
Therefore, there will be a total of 441 vehicle-based shopping trips.
 For vehicle-based social/recreational trips:
Type 1: 0.04+ 0.0018(2)+0.009(40)+0.16(1)=0.596 trips/HH.*100
HH.= 59.6 trips
Type 2: 0.04+ 0.0018(3)+0.009(50)+0.16(2)=0.864 trips/HH.*200
HH.= 172.8 trips

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Travel Demand Modeling Lect. No.3

Type 3: 0.04+ 0.0018(3)+0.009(55)+0.16(1)=0.749 trips/HH.*350

HH.= 262.15 trips
Type 4: 0.04+ 0.0018(4)+0.009(40)+0.16(3)=0.952 trips/HH.*50
HH.= 47.6 trips
Therefore, there will be a total of 542.15 vehicle-based
social/recreational trips.
 For vehicle-based work
There will be 100 generated from type1 households (1*100), 200
from type 2 (1*200), 700 from type 3(2*350), and 50 from type 4
(1*50) for a total of 1050 vehicle-based work trips, summing the
total of all three trip types gives 2033 peak hour vehicle-based
trips.
Example 4: Computing Trips Generated in an activity zone.

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Example 5:
A city has recently conducted a travel survey of its 10 zone. The
collected data are summarized in the table below. Based on the given
information :
Relate Y (total number of trips produced by a zone to X 1 (zonal
population).
Population Household Trips
Zone
(X1) (X2) Y
1 7212 2488 5126
2 4818 2188 3764
3 8789 2423 4030
4 5805 2141 3921
5 3054 1241 1644
6 10463 3451 4467
7 2735 1857 3407
8 1784 905 1143
9 4418 1695 3202
10 6657 1960 3900

∑ ∑

∑ ( ) ∑ ( )
∑ ( )( )

√ ( )
√

= (0-1) 1 best fit of curve , ≥ 2.0

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Travel Demand Modeling Lect. No.3

( )

Y=1545.807 + 0.3435 X1

bo= 1545.807 interpereted as : amount of trips would be produced

if there is no population in a zone ( X1=0).

b1= 0.3435 one additional person in a zone would produce

additional 0.343 trip.

6000

5000

4000
TripsY

3000

2000 y = 0.3435x + 1545.8

R² = 0.6085
1000

0
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
Zone population X1

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( )
( )( )

 Standard error of estimate

( )
√ ( ) ( )
=√

 Standard error of coefficient estimate

√ √

O.K

( any independent variable t < 2.0 should be deleted from the equation)

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Travel Demand Modeling Lect. No.3

Pop (X1) Trips (Y) XY X2 (X-X-) (Y-Y-) (X-X-)2 (X-X-)2 (X-X-)(Y-Y-)

7212 5126 36968712 52012944 1638.5 1665.6 2684682 2774223 2729086

4818 3764 18134952 23213124 -755.5 303.6 570780.3 92172.96 -229370

8789 4030 35419670 77246521 3215.5 569.6 10339440 324444.2 1831549

5805 3921 22761405 33698025 231.5 460.6 53592.25 212152.4 106628.9

3054 1644 5020776 9326916 -2519.5 -1816.4 6347880 3299309 4576420

10463 4467 46738221 109474369 4889.5 1006.6 23907210 1013244 4921771

2735 3407 9318145 7480225 -2838.5 -53.4 8057082 2851.56 151575.9

1784 1143 2039112 3182656 -3789.5 -2317.4 14360310 5370343 8781787

4418 3202 14146436 19518724 -1155.5 -258.4 1335180 66770.56 298581.2

6657 3900 25962300 44315649 1083.5 439.6 1173972 193248.2 476306.6

X-= 5573.5 Y-=3460.4 ∑= 68830131 ∑= 13348758 ∑= 23644335

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