Module 3 Introduction to Probability
Module 3 Introduction to Probability
Introduction
Sometimes it takes chances to decide on something. The higher the chances
of winning or gaining, the higher the chances to pursue on that particular decision.
This idea is suitable to students who need to be immersed in making rational
choices. It can be best explained in this module.
Learning Outcomes
At the end of this module the student will be able to:
1. Learn and explain random variables and probability distributions.
2. Understand and discuss expected values, mean and variance
The binomial distribution is the discrete probability distribution that gives only two
possible results in an experiment, either Success or Failure. For example, in tossing a
coin, there could be only two possible outcomes: heads or tails, and if any test is taken,
then there could be only two results: pass or fail. This distribution is also called a binomial
probability distribution.
There are two parameters n and p used here in a binomial distribution. The
variable ‘n’ states the number of times the experiment runs and the variable ‘p’ tells the
probability of any one outcome. Suppose a die is thrown randomly 10 times, then the
probability of getting 2 for anyone throw is ⅙. When you throw the dice 10 times, you have
a binomial distribution of n = 10 and p = ⅙. Learn the formula to calculate the two outcome
distribution among multiple experiments along with solved examples here in this article.
Source: https://byjus.com/math/binomial-distribution/
Normal Distribution
According to Galliguez, T. et. al.(2016) the normal distribution is the
most important continuous probability distribution in the entire field of
statistics. The formula (for normal curves) was derived by Abraham de Moivre
(1667-1754). When p=.05, he observed that binomial distributions approach a
definite form as n increases. This limiting form is what is now known as a
normal distribution.
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μ = Σxp
Note: Σ is Sigma Notation, and means to sum up.
Example continued:
x 1 2 3 4 5 6
Note: this is a weighted mean: values with higher probability have higher
contribution to the mean.
Variance: Var(X)
Var(X) = Σx2p − μ2
Example continued:
x 1 2 3 4 5 6
https://opentextbc.ca/introstatopenstax/chapter/mean-or-
expected-value-and-standard-deviation/